usflyer msp wrote:
I can’t imagine MXP being too profitable with EK, DL, AZ, and UA all being in the mix. Furthermore, FCO and BCN are too leisure oriented for AA’s market. MAD should perform well but maybe they lose out from all the competition on this route?
JFK-MXP more then likely has to do with the corporate travel from my years of flying the route. Once I flew JFK-MXP on AA in Y, for $350RT on their 767 in February. In economy there were only 30-40 passengers while business was full. The others are quite similar: EK (good access to the U.S and all of Asia for coporate + EK arrival lounge at MXP T1 which has people there), DL (Corporate) and UA (Corporate + Connections). AZ I believe has just always flown the route for national pride since the 70s. I've heard many times that flight has also barely flown out full. When IG operated the route it was mainly connections with very few corporate clients due to their continuous changing of flight dates which caused the Italian clients to choose other airlines.
AA has a strong following in Milan. They are the only carrier to consistently serve the two primary US destinations for Milan based business travelers - JFK (banking and design) and MIA (design). The business class cabins sell very well. I predict that MIA-MXP will be the first suspended route brought back.
I don't know why people are so reluctant to admit certain routes are huge under performers. JFK-MXP is clearly a huge money loser for them. The Y class fares are always really low. After the upgrade to 777, they had real trouble selling out the J cabin even in peak summer season.
When I fly to Europe, I almost always fly AA on JFK-MAD or JFK-MXP, because the R/T Y fare were low and I can always guarantee easy upgrade to business class with SWU (if I had one) or miles + copay. A lot of times, the upgrade clears at time of booking.
JFK-FCO probably did well in summer time, because the Y fares were always higher (sometimes double what's on JFK-MXP). The problem here is that J cabin have just as hard time selling out as JFK-MXP. I've found the Delta J fare on this route to almost always be more expensive.
So when I go to Italy, I almost always start and end the trip at Milan even though it's always the most boring part of my trip.
JFK-MAD in off season is always snoozer. The Y fares are always low. The J fares often are pretty low too. And J Cabin is again wide open. Unless you are traveling in summer months, the upgrade request clears very easily.
JFK-BCN based on my experience does a little better, but J cabin fills up a little quicker. Still hard to imagine this route is profitable outside of peak summer months.
JFK-CDG is probably their best performer after LHR. Even for this one, you might be surprised at often J cabins are just not full.
For the south american flights, don't overestimate their performances here. There is a reason they made GIG seasonal. Does anyone really think JFK to Brazil/Argentina demand will come back this winter?
That was pre-COVID I believe, and pre-adding these additional long-haul routes. They wouldn't be doing this deal if they were O&D focussed, IMO.
Remember, JFK-LHR is only 60% O&D (not sure on the split for other routes), so you are going to need somewhere for these pax to connect to. B6 connections make sense if a route can't make money on its own, but if a route is profitable there isn't a strong point for dropping it, as there is no revenue sharing between AA & B6.
Diverting/cutting off flows is a slippery slope (unless a certain flow is unprofitable), as a key method for retaining pax is offering optionality.
Vasu mentions growing in vacated positions within JFKhttps://player.fm/series/tell-me-why/s3 ... -vasu-raja
The problem AA has in JFK is that it's the highest cost carrier by the lowest fared carrier.
Aside from what I mentioned above for TATL stuff, their transcon stuff is always facing declining performances. To give you an example, I fly JFK to SFO and am looking to try out mint. But I end up always picking AA at the end. Why is that? They always have the cheapest J fares, especially when I go through sales agent. They do a little better on LAX. But if you look at the fare numbers recently, it has seen a pretty big dip.
JFK used to be more profitable to them. Stuff like SAN/LAS/SEA were all doing well. And then mint came along and just killed them on these routes.