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dstblj52
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Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 24, 2020 7:19 am

United is already starting the whipsaw up this time between EV and C5 I expect we will see more of this over the new few months personally I think EV is done for they have a too senior too militant workforce to survive this.
Update from MEC Chair: All,


I need to make you aware of developments that have transpired during the past couple weeks that could have a dramatic impact on our future and the future of ExpressJet Airlines. Late last week, management requested all of the labor leaders on property join them on a call to discuss new information from United Airlines as well as management’s strategy for ExpressJet’s survival into 2021.


On this call, we were informed that United Airlines stated it would only require one E145 carrier moving forward. United Airlines will base their final selection on many factors and will make its decision in the coming weeks. While ExpressJet offers many attributes that make us an attractive long-term partner, cost has reared its ugly head once again and we have been asked by our management team to close the gap between our costs and those at CommutAir. This gap can only be sufficiently closed with labor cost reductions from all labor groups on property, both represented and not. We were briefed by management July 21 about their proposed plan that included reductions in overall pilot compensation and other benefits. I will note that the benefits management proposed reducing did not include health care. While I cannot discuss specifics at this time, your MEC is fully engaged as we move forward assessing the situation and making the initial decisions that are best for the overall health of our airline. We hope to have more concrete answers about our future soon; however, there is no doubt we will be a much smaller airline this fall with meager growth forecast over the next few years.


This has been more than challenging for all of us, and ExpressJet pilots are poised to continue our tradition of examining all the options on the table prior to making the tough decisions necessary to keep us afloat. At this point no decision has been made on how we will proceed, and the next few days will be very challenging and arduous for your elected leadership. I will continue to update you with information as the situation develops
Last edited by atcsundevil on Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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airportugal310
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:21 pm

Live by the sword, die by the sword. With few exceptions, regionals are not in full control on their destinies and depend on the "mother" airline to do it for them. This is the end result, time and time again
“They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into. I say, let 'em crash.”
 
dstblj52
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Posts: 406
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:13 pm

airportugal310 wrote:
Live by the sword, die by the sword. With few exceptions, regionals are not in full control on their destinies and depend on the "mother" airline to do it for them. This is the end result, time and time again

Yep its made worse in these cases because united owns all the 145's in question so the airlines own nothing
 
sldispatcher
Posts: 387
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2007 3:55 am

Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:19 pm

I thought Kirby said a few months ago that 50 seat flying was going away. How can this be a shocker?
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:21 pm

If only one survives, I expect it will be the non-union C5 that survives, with a transition to larger jets.
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:23 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
If only one survives, I expect it will be the non-union C5 that survives, with a transition to larger jets.


C5 has unions.....the pilots are deffinently unionized.
 
dstblj52
Topic Author
Posts: 406
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:36 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
If only one survives, I expect it will be the non-union C5 that survives, with a transition to larger jets.


C5 has unions.....the pilots are deffinently unionized.

but they have much lower seniority and a worse payscale and work rules then ExpressJet does so they are definitely the cheaper carrier
 
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JBo
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:38 pm

As sad as it is, we're probably going to see a few more regionals die out completely before the pandemic is over.
I'd take the awe of understanding over the awe of ignorance any day.
 
dstblj52
Topic Author
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:46 pm

JBo wrote:
As sad as it is, we're probably going to see a few more regionals die out completely before the pandemic is over.

Oh yeah definitely and all the improvements of the last 5 years in pay and benefits are also going to be gone as well
 
TonyClifton
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:49 pm

Really depends, some Express feeds are more leveraged than others. Delta and American were way ahead of united and slimming down and reducing overlap. It’ll be harder for Delta to whipsaw when their 3 carriers are all pretty robust.

United has a mess of a feed.
Single class 50 seat:
Skywest (200)
Wisconsin (200)
CommutAir (145)
ExpressJet (145)

Two class 50:
GoJet (550)

Two Class 51+:
Skywest (700/175)
Republic (170/175)
Mesa (700/175)

There’s a lot of overlap there that you don’t see as much at Delta Connection or American Eagle.
 
11C
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:23 pm

How many times has United made this same announcement? Obviously the livelihoods of the affected carriers employees don’t mean squat. Ask anyone who was at ACA how this goes. I get that the current situation dictates changes, but the ‘Hunger Games’ style of choosing the surviving carrier is no less disgraceful.
 
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JBo
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:34 pm

TonyClifton wrote:
Really depends, some Express feeds are more leveraged than others. Delta and American were way ahead of united and slimming down and reducing overlap. It’ll be harder for Delta to whipsaw when their 3 carriers are all pretty robust.

United has a mess of a feed.
Single class 50 seat:
Skywest (200)
Wisconsin (200)
CommutAir (145)
ExpressJet (145)

Two class 50:
GoJet (550)

Two Class 51+:
Skywest (700/175)
Republic (170/175)
Mesa (700/175)

There’s a lot of overlap there that you don’t see as much at Delta Connection or American Eagle.


I can see UA going down to just ZW and C5 for single-class 50-seat feed. Since UA owns the 550s, I could see them finding a way to terminate their contract with G7 and transfer the aircraft to another operator (OO or maybe ZW), which would be the final nail in the coffin for Trans States Holdings. For the 51+ ops, Mesa is most likely to get cut IMO.
I'd take the awe of understanding over the awe of ignorance any day.
 
TonyClifton
Posts: 180
Joined: Thu May 14, 2020 3:19 pm

Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:47 pm

JBo wrote:
TonyClifton wrote:
Really depends, some Express feeds are more leveraged than others. Delta and American were way ahead of united and slimming down and reducing overlap. It’ll be harder for Delta to whipsaw when their 3 carriers are all pretty robust.

United has a mess of a feed.
Single class 50 seat:
Skywest (200)
Wisconsin (200)
CommutAir (145)
ExpressJet (145)

Two class 50:
GoJet (550)

Two Class 51+:
Skywest (700/175)
Republic (170/175)
Mesa (700/175)

There’s a lot of overlap there that you don’t see as much at Delta Connection or American Eagle.


I can see UA going down to just ZW and C5 for single-class 50-seat feed. Since UA owns the 550s, I could see them finding a way to terminate their contract with G7 and transfer the aircraft to another operator (OO or maybe ZW), which would be the final nail in the coffin for Trans States Holdings. For the 51+ ops, Mesa is most likely to get cut IMO.

The issue is who will fly 50 seaters out west? I don’t see Skywest parking their substantial CRJ200 UAX operation.

Allegedly Mesa wants the 550s. Comes down to who will open EWR. Skywest doesn’t want any part of that, they just culled two of their more eastern bases of LGA and ATL. Could see Mesa and Wisconsin making a play for the 550s. I think Skywest also owns a few of the 550s and leases them out. Some are former Comair tails that Gojets flew for DCI, that OO has since purchased. Wisconsin already has ORD and MKE for the Chicago-based feed, and have no aversion to east coast basing, with a LGA base in the Eagle/Airways Express days, and most recently IAD and before that DCA.

My personal guess is Skywest keeps their western 200s, Mesa makes a move on the 550s, Wisconsin stays in ORD. I really can’t make a solid guess between Commutair and ExpressJet. Commutair has lower costs by far, but can they scale up? Conversely, can ExpressJet be efficient if they shrink more, they already have a high cost base and infrastructure to be a far larger airline, requires lots of cutting.

Most of all, truly feel for my friends and all those involved in this mess. Remember there are people’s livelihoods that are being moved around like game pieces.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:58 pm

EV may have high costs so they need aircraft with lower CASM. Let GoJet die and send the 550s to EV. If the 550 really depends on who’s in EWR, then give it to an airline that already has an EWR base.
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
TonyClifton
Posts: 180
Joined: Thu May 14, 2020 3:19 pm

Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:08 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
EV may have high costs so they need aircraft with lower CASM. Let GoJet die and send the 550s to EV. If the 550 really depends on who’s in EWR, then give it to an airline that already has an EWR base.

Cheaper for Mesa to open a base than ExpressJet to switch fleets I’d guess. Not sure what remains of the EV CRJ program, sims, parts, etc. Would have to retrain everybody. Can’t see that helping to lower their cost.
 
fcogafa
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:09 pm

What does the 'Whipsaw' title mean? Almost as bad as the 'Clapping back' one the other day
 
Tango-Bravo
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:29 pm

11C wrote:
How many times has United made this same announcement? Obviously the livelihoods of the affected carriers employees don’t mean squat. Ask anyone who was at ACA how this goes. I get that the current situation dictates changes, but the ‘Hunger Games’ style of choosing the surviving carrier is no less disgraceful.


:thumbsup: Unfortunately, as implied, nothing new. Seems from day one, when the legacies began to outsource their mainline flying to a significant degree, they have played their various provider carriers against each other, not infrequently with adverse results. And while the pilot shortage may presently have a respite, it will come back again with the same knock-on effects of the recent past.

Although I don't remember who it was, some years ago a MN congressional representative (Jim Oberstar?) serving on some transportation committee stated his concern with the long term sustainability of the legacies' revolving door games they play with their regional affiliates (my paraphrase, not his words.) Yes, I get that the legacies' needs for outsourced lift can change from time to time, but the underlying nature of the game always seems to come down to squeezing their regionals unduly.

Todd
BJI
 
dstblj52
Topic Author
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:50 pm

fcogafa wrote:
What does the 'Whipsaw' title mean? Almost as bad as the 'Clapping back' one the other day

Sorry whipsaw is the term given to the legacies techniques if reducing what they pay for regional feed and what that does to the compensation of those who actually do the flying.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:53 pm

dstblj52 wrote:
fcogafa wrote:
What does the 'Whipsaw' title mean? Almost as bad as the 'Clapping back' one the other day

Sorry whipsaw is the term given to the legacies techniques if reducing what they pay for regional feed and what that does to the compensation of those who actually do the flying.

I have updated the title to clarify the topic. We encourage users to be descriptive when creating thread titles, because it can cause confusion.

If the shift to one E145 operator becomes official, the title may be updated to reflect the confirmation of this news.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
freakyrat
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:53 pm

With the Pandemic Both DL and UA are doing this at SBN a OO Maintenance hub. DL ATL and DTW flying moved to wholly owned carrier Endeavor from Skywest. Next month DTW goes back to Skywest and ATL is covered by Endeavor. The United flying to ORD was a split between EV and OO now they are splitting it between EV and OO and ZW. In the case with DL flying part of the plan pre-Covid was to switch all ATL flights to 9E CRJ900's leaving the OO CRJ200's for DTW flying. I believe that is what DL is setting up for the future but for now using 9E CRJ200's for ATL and OO for DTW.
 
alasizon
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 24, 2020 6:22 pm

JBo wrote:
Since UA owns the 550s, I could see them finding a way to terminate their contract with G7 and transfer the aircraft to another operator (OO or maybe ZW), which would be the final nail in the coffin for Trans States Holdings. For the 51+ ops, Mesa is most likely to get cut IMO.


Minor point, UA owns almost none of the 550s, they are mostly leased from SkyWest and G7 is behind on their lease payments supposedly and can't afford to take delivery of the additional frames that were not yet brought online.

Rumor has it UA is only offering to pay 50-seater rates for the 550 so OO isn't going to touch it.

The YV CR7s are likely gone anyhow to make room for more 175SCs.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
TonyClifton
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 24, 2020 6:38 pm

alasizon wrote:
JBo wrote:
Since UA owns the 550s, I could see them finding a way to terminate their contract with G7 and transfer the aircraft to another operator (OO or maybe ZW), which would be the final nail in the coffin for Trans States Holdings. For the 51+ ops, Mesa is most likely to get cut IMO.


Minor point, UA owns almost none of the 550s, they are mostly leased from SkyWest and G7 is behind on their lease payments supposedly and can't afford to take delivery of the additional frames that were not yet brought online.

Rumor has it UA is only offering to pay 50-seater rates for the 550 so OO isn't going to touch it.

The YV CR7s are likely gone anyhow to make room for more 175SCs.

I believe the plan was for the Mesa 700s to become 550s. Makes room for 175SC and replaces single class jets. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Mesa end up with the 550s, as they already are well familiar with the 700.
 
atrude777
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Fri Jul 24, 2020 7:09 pm

Question then if United dwindles the 50 Seater Operation for E145 and CRJ200.

Let's say SkyWest wins to keep the CRJ, cool.

If Air Wisconsin then wins to keep their CRJ for 50 seaters..and this happens, what happens to the SkyWest EAS markets under the United code that are CRJ's?

If UA makes the claim of "no more 50 seaters"?

A CRJ550 COULD fly the EAS markets as seat wise, it won't affect it, but then it's going to draw on a business market to buy First Class that isn't entirely there at the moment?

Lots of curious changes and "what if's" especially concerning EAS with SkyWest under the UA Code.

Alex
Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
 
codc10
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Fri Jul 24, 2020 7:27 pm

atrude777 wrote:
If Air Wisconsin then wins to keep their CRJ for 50 seaters..and this happens, what happens to the SkyWest EAS markets under the United code that are CRJ's?


A number (not sure of exact # or proportion) of SkyWest EAS markets are flown at-risk or "pro rate" by OO, meaning the flying is not contracted by United/Delta but operates under the UAX/DCI banner with OO bearing financial risk. The usual arrangement is that OO will set pricing in the local market, while the mainline carrier can set pricing on connecting itineraries.

If UA goes to a single vendor for CRJ-200s, my guess is it would be ZW since that contract is very flexible to United's benefit (and cheaper), and I'm not certain whether SkyWest would meet the same terms. However, it wouldn't stop OO from doing pro rate flying with the CR2 under the UA* code.

With all that said, we may be seeing a rapid sunset of CR2s as they approach more expensive maintenance intervals and cycle limits. COVID-19 will fundamentally change air access to small communities, especially if business travel (less price-sensitive/discretionary) is depressed for many months. The expectation is that vacation/VFR will return sooner, but it is a demonstrated fact that passengers prefer to drive elsewhere for a leisure trip, rather than use a closer airport, for even nominally lower fares.
 
DiamondFlyer
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Joined: Wed Oct 29, 2008 11:50 pm

Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:54 pm

codc10 wrote:
atrude777 wrote:
If Air Wisconsin then wins to keep their CRJ for 50 seaters..and this happens, what happens to the SkyWest EAS markets under the United code that are CRJ's?


A number (not sure of exact # or proportion) of SkyWest EAS markets are flown at-risk or "pro rate" by OO, meaning the flying is not contracted by United/Delta but operates under the UAX/DCI banner with OO bearing financial risk. The usual arrangement is that OO will set pricing in the local market, while the mainline carrier can set pricing on connecting itineraries.

If UA goes to a single vendor for CRJ-200s, my guess is it would be ZW since that contract is very flexible to United's benefit (and cheaper), and I'm not certain whether SkyWest would meet the same terms. However, it wouldn't stop OO from doing pro rate flying with the CR2 under the UA* code.

With all that said, we may be seeing a rapid sunset of CR2s as they approach more expensive maintenance intervals and cycle limits. COVID-19 will fundamentally change air access to small communities, especially if business travel (less price-sensitive/discretionary) is depressed for many months. The expectation is that vacation/VFR will return sooner, but it is a demonstrated fact that passengers prefer to drive elsewhere for a leisure trip, rather than use a closer airport, for even nominally lower fares.


All in all, I think you'll see the 145 (especially non XRs)go away much quicker than the 200. They're older in general, and the lack of commonality with a 70/76 seat jet hurts them, in terms of additional operating cost. OO has a huge fleet of 200 EAS/at-risk flying, and the world's largest CRJ900 operator (9E) can easily justify the small cost difference of keeping the 200 around, until Delta says to park them.
From my cold, dead hands
 
DDR
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:00 am

That stinks because the CRJ-200 is the most uncomfortable aircraft I have ever flown on.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 379
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:54 am

I find it somewhat hard to believe you could do all UAX 50-seater flying on C5 and ZW, at least with the way the current system is set up. Yes, many of the EAS routes could remain on OO metal, but out west, there’s a lot more than just pro-rate at risk flying going on on Skywest CR2s.

C5 and ZW would have to expand dramatically to take over the levels of flying done by OO in the present structure of the system. You could probably cut out EV, that much I agree with, but I can’t see Skywest getting cut out of the picture. At least until United moves away from 50 seaters
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 771
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:11 am

TonyClifton wrote:
Really depends, some Express feeds are more leveraged than others. Delta and American were way ahead of united and slimming down and reducing overlap. It’ll be harder for Delta to whipsaw when their 3 carriers are all pretty robust.

United has a mess of a feed.
Single class 50 seat:
Skywest (200)
Wisconsin (200)
CommutAir (145)
ExpressJet (145)

Two class 50:
GoJet (550)

Two Class 51+:
Skywest (700/175)
Republic (170/175)
Mesa (700/175)

There’s a lot of overlap there that you don’t see as much at Delta Connection or American Eagle.

To be fair, United was making moves with the 50 seat fleet long before COVID hit.

Transtates flying was already eliminated, along with the 145xlr’s. Subsidiary GoJet picked up the 550 flying, but Hulas had publicly stated even before all hell broke loose that there was no future for the company only flying a “handful” of planes. I would not be at all surprised to see that flying go back to Skywest, and then be subbed to Air Wisconsin for ORD, IAD, and EWR operations.
(He should have taken the money that was on the table and walked away...)

Both Skywest and Air Wisconsin own the CRJ 200 fleets, if I recall correctly, making them cheaper to keep in the long run, especially at low utilization for the foreseeable future.

Cost-wise, I can easily see Expressjet flying transferred to C5, both are “Mana” operations, and the 145’s phased out over time.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 771
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:18 am

TonyClifton wrote:
JBo wrote:
TonyClifton wrote:
Really depends, some Express feeds are more leveraged than others. Delta and American were way ahead of united and slimming down and reducing overlap. It’ll be harder for Delta to whipsaw when their 3 carriers are all pretty robust.

United has a mess of a feed.
Single class 50 seat:
Skywest (200)
Wisconsin (200)
CommutAir (145)
ExpressJet (145)

Two class 50:
GoJet (550)

Two Class 51+:
Skywest (700/175)
Republic (170/175)
Mesa (700/175)

There’s a lot of overlap there that you don’t see as much at Delta Connection or American Eagle.


I can see UA going down to just ZW and C5 for single-class 50-seat feed. Since UA owns the 550s, I could see them finding a way to terminate their contract with G7 and transfer the aircraft to another operator (OO or maybe ZW), which would be the final nail in the coffin for Trans States Holdings. For the 51+ ops, Mesa is most likely to get cut IMO.

The issue is who will fly 50 seaters out west? I don’t see Skywest parking their substantial CRJ200 UAX operation.

Allegedly Mesa wants the 550s. Comes down to who will open EWR. Skywest doesn’t want any part of that, they just culled two of their more eastern bases of LGA and ATL. Could see Mesa and Wisconsin making a play for the 550s. I think Skywest also owns a few of the 550s and leases them out. Some are former Comair tails that Gojets flew for DCI, that OO has since purchased. Wisconsin already has ORD and MKE for the Chicago-based feed, and have no aversion to east coast basing, with a LGA base in the Eagle/Airways Express days, and most recently IAD and before that DCA.

My personal guess is Skywest keeps their western 200s, Mesa makes a move on the 550s, Wisconsin stays in ORD. I really can’t make a solid guess between Commutair and ExpressJet. Commutair has lower costs by far, but can they scale up? Conversely, can ExpressJet be efficient if they shrink more, they already have a high cost base and infrastructure to be a far larger airline, requires lots of cutting.

Most of all, truly feel for my friends and all those involved in this mess. Remember there are people’s livelihoods that are being moved around like game pieces.


If EX falls, any EWR and IAD 50 seat flying will go to C5.
Mesa already had issues trying to run a bi-coastal operation, and got pushed out. They are just too small to cover call outs, breakdowns, and IROPS by trying to move crews, deadheads, and mechanics from coast to coast and back again. Even Skywest wants out of that game, and wants to concentrate west of the Mississippi for the same reasons.

I can’t see YX even bothering to bid for the 550’s, and I think only Skywest has a program for them at all.
 
dstblj52
Topic Author
Posts: 406
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:45 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
TonyClifton wrote:
JBo wrote:

I can see UA going down to just ZW and C5 for single-class 50-seat feed. Since UA owns the 550s, I could see them finding a way to terminate their contract with G7 and transfer the aircraft to another operator (OO or maybe ZW), which would be the final nail in the coffin for Trans States Holdings. For the 51+ ops, Mesa is most likely to get cut IMO.

The issue is who will fly 50 seaters out west? I don’t see Skywest parking their substantial CRJ200 UAX operation.

Allegedly Mesa wants the 550s. Comes down to who will open EWR. Skywest doesn’t want any part of that, they just culled two of their more eastern bases of LGA and ATL. Could see Mesa and Wisconsin making a play for the 550s. I think Skywest also owns a few of the 550s and leases them out. Some are former Comair tails that Gojets flew for DCI, that OO has since purchased. Wisconsin already has ORD and MKE for the Chicago-based feed, and have no aversion to east coast basing, with a LGA base in the Eagle/Airways Express days, and most recently IAD and before that DCA.

My personal guess is Skywest keeps their western 200s, Mesa makes a move on the 550s, Wisconsin stays in ORD. I really can’t make a solid guess between Commutair and ExpressJet. Commutair has lower costs by far, but can they scale up? Conversely, can ExpressJet be efficient if they shrink more, they already have a high cost base and infrastructure to be a far larger airline, requires lots of cutting.

Most of all, truly feel for my friends and all those involved in this mess. Remember there are people’s livelihoods that are being moved around like game pieces.


If EX falls, any EWR and IAD 50 seat flying will go to C5.
Mesa already had issues trying to run a bi-coastal operation, and got pushed out. They are just too small to cover call outs, breakdowns, and IROPS by trying to move crews, deadheads, and mechanics from coast to coast and back again. Even Skywest wants out of that game, and wants to concentrate west of the Mississippi for the same reasons.

I can’t see YX even bothering to bid for the 550’s, and I think only Skywest has a program for them at all.

550's are just 700 with lower mtow and different cabin config nothings really stopping anyone who operates any combination of 200's 700's and 900's bidding for them
 
toga998
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Sat Jul 25, 2020 12:50 pm

The question remains: what will fill EV's void at IAH? The 50-seat market there is what supports much of the south and southestern US.
 
MLIAA
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Sat Jul 25, 2020 3:19 pm

toga998 wrote:
The question remains: what will fill EV's void at IAH? The 50-seat market there is what supports much of the south and southestern US.



SkyWest could, they already have a CRJ base at IAH and could throw -200s down there to cover the flying.
A319 A320 A321 A332 B712 B722 B737 B738 B739 B744 B752 B763 B764 B772 B788 B789 MD80 S340 E140 E145 E170 E175 E195 CRJ2 CRJ7 CRJ9
 
jetmatt777
Posts: 4248
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:16 am

Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Sat Jul 25, 2020 4:12 pm

MLIAA wrote:
toga998 wrote:
The question remains: what will fill EV's void at IAH? The 50-seat market there is what supports much of the south and southestern US.



SkyWest could, they already have a CRJ base at IAH and could throw -200s down there to cover the flying.


Yikes. That would be miserable, my experience with the CR2 is the AC system really struggles on the ground in the heat. Most planes do, but some are better than others and it seems the ERJ stays considerably more comfortable on taxi out, and some of the taxi out times at IAH can be lengthy. Not that United would care about that at all when making a determination.
 
TonyClifton
Posts: 180
Joined: Thu May 14, 2020 3:19 pm

Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:44 pm

MLIAA wrote:
toga998 wrote:
The question remains: what will fill EV's void at IAH? The 50-seat market there is what supports much of the south and southestern US.



SkyWest could, they already have a CRJ base at IAH and could throw -200s down there to cover the flying.

They also have a few dozen coming off contract at DCI that are available.

From my experience the 200 isn’t horrific in the heat if you use the APU continually on the ground during turns. Fire it up descending through 10,000 and don’t turn it off until after takeoff and you’ll have a relatively stable supply of cool air for regular turns. Also have to drop the pack temp as low as possible without freezing on descent for a little extra help. It’s APU inop or attempting to use poor ground air for fuel savings that warms it up real fast. Even low power on taxi in with no APU will warm it up a few degrees before you reach the gate. Recirc fans would have helped...
 
EWRamp
Posts: 85
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 4:46 pm

Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Sun Jul 26, 2020 12:33 am

With the CEO of C5 being former UAL management, I see them being the surviving carrier in Uniteds Regional Network
 
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LAXintl
Posts: 24502
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:26 pm

News story

United tells two regional airlines it will continue contract with just one
https://www.reuters.com/article/healthc ... SL2N2EY225
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
User avatar
FLALEFTY
Posts: 725
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 11:33 am

Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:10 pm

LAXintl wrote:
News story

United tells two regional airlines it will continue contract with just one
https://www.reuters.com/article/healthc ... SL2N2EY225


It is looking more and more like Expressjet will be the loser in this stand-off with Commutair due to cost. EV has already sent WARN Act pre-furlough notices to their pilots. With no other major airline customer, it seems unlikely that Expressjet will survive if they lose the United contract.

Looking at the bigger picture with the regionals, I believe the days of major-branded regional services to many smaller cities may be ended soon. These services will be added to the growing pile of EAS markets that will relegated to prop-centric airlines like Boutique, and/or Cape Air.
 
Scarebus34
Posts: 521
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:54 pm

Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:24 pm

EWRamp wrote:
With the CEO of C5 being former UAL management, I see them being the surviving carrier in Uniteds Regional Network

I don't think that will factor into the decision at all - United owns pieces of both airlines. They can move management around as they see fit. It's going to come down to cost. C5 is cheaper and I don't see EV voting to take concessions to make them competitive.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 771
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:24 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
News story

United tells two regional airlines it will continue contract with just one
https://www.reuters.com/article/healthc ... SL2N2EY225


It is looking more and more like Expressjet will be the loser in this stand-off with Commutair due to cost. EV has already sent WARN Act pre-furlough notices to their pilots. With no other major airline customer, it seems unlikely that Expressjet will survive if they lose the United contract.

Looking at the bigger picture with the regionals, I believe the days of major-branded regional services to many smaller cities may be ended soon. These services will be added to the growing pile of EAS markets that will relegated to prop-centric airlines like Boutique, and/or Cape Air.


Mike Boyd is warning of a DRASTIC drawdown in US small RJ flying over the next 6-10 months, something in excess of 1,000 frames, with no replacements in the pipeline.
He is predicting that this will dramatically effect flying to small and medium cities.

Boyd can be a bit dramatic at times, but his logic here seems solid. Lots of older RJ's flying now, some 20 years old or more.
 
drdisque
Posts: 1268
Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2007 9:57 am

Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:29 pm

Does C5 actually have a different scale than EV or is EV just more senior?

If C5 has a lower scale, I can see a situation where EV pilots may be offered jobs at C5 with some or all retention of seniority if they accept the lower scale (of course that would have to be negotiated with the C5 union).

If they have similar scales and EV is just more senior then I expect there just be an offer for most EV pilots to join C5 but with no retention of seniority.

Or none of this and C5 will just figure that between all the furloughed or laid off regional pilots that they will have plenty of potential applicants for any additional flying they get.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 771
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:33 pm

drdisque wrote:
Does C5 actually have a different scale than EV or is EV just more senior?

If C5 has a lower scale, I can see a situation where EV pilots may be offered jobs at C5 with some or all retention of seniority if they accept the lower scale (of course that would have to be negotiated with the C5 union).

If they have similar scales and EV is just more senior then I expect there just be an offer for most EV pilots to join C5 but with no retention of seniority.

Or none of this and C5 will just figure that between all the furloughed or laid off regional pilots that they will have plenty of potential applicants for any additional flying they get.

There is no good reason for C5, or EV if the tide turns, to merge seniority lists with EV.
Also keep in mind that a LOT of EV's frames are older.

Why inherit problems when you can cherry pick the assets? And even if combined, the new company would be MUCH smaller for the foreseeable future.

We are in an entirely new reality, you can't use the past as a guide.
 
drdisque
Posts: 1268
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:39 pm

The frames aren't really an issue since they all belong to UA. There's no need for C5 to take "bad" EV frames. UA will move the best/lowest cycle frames they own to C5 (which may include frames formerly operated by Trans States that UA owned) if C5's fleet needs to grow.
 
Tailwinds
Posts: 47
Joined: Wed Mar 21, 2007 2:46 am

Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:10 pm

fcogafa wrote:
What does the 'Whipsaw' title mean? Almost as bad as the 'Clapping back' one the other day


"Whipsaw" is a term with a real meaning, rather than the hyperbole of "clapping back". The whipsaw is a very long saw with a handle at both ends, so that two people can work it back and forth. "To whipsaw" means to play one side off the other, going back and forth between them. In business it usually means having two groups competing for the same business, with the winner being the one that most undercuts the other. The groups are so incentivized to continually undercut one another. It's been one of the defining characteristics of the regional business, as companies have been whipsawed into bidding at or below cost to win flying, and labor has been whipsawed in to contracts substantially inferior to those groups that can't be whipsawed. Scope clauses are an attempt to limit whipsawing by clearly defining which labor groups can perform specific jobs, thus preventing multiple groups from competing against each other for the job.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 7730
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:13 pm

drdisque wrote:
If C5 has a lower scale, I can see a situation where EV pilots may be offered jobs at C5 with some or all retention of seniority if they accept the lower scale (of course that would have to be negotiated with the C5 union).


I can't. Why would any C5 pilot be willing to be pushed down in seniority by any EV pilot, especially when the industry is going to be shrunken for years?
 
drdisque
Posts: 1268
Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2007 9:57 am

Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:32 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
drdisque wrote:
If C5 has a lower scale, I can see a situation where EV pilots may be offered jobs at C5 with some or all retention of seniority if they accept the lower scale (of course that would have to be negotiated with the C5 union).


I can't. Why would any C5 pilot be willing to be pushed down in seniority by any EV pilot, especially when the industry is going to be shrunken for years?


Fair point.

I was just asking the question whether EV and C5 have similar scale and seniority is the primary driver of higher cost at EV or if the scales are drastically different.

I agree that if there is a scenario where EV pilots are "automatically" offered jobs at C5, they will probably lose their seniority. However, perhaps the loss in seniority and pay is outweighed by the ability to keep gaining part 121 twin turbine hours for when the majors start hiring again.
 
CriticalPoint
Posts: 1036
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:01 pm

Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:35 pm

drdisque wrote:
Does C5 actually have a different scale than EV or is EV just more senior?

If C5 has a lower scale, I can see a situation where EV pilots may be offered jobs at C5 with some or all retention of seniority if they accept the lower scale (of course that would have to be negotiated with the C5 union).

If they have similar scales and EV is just more senior then I expect there just be an offer for most EV pilots to join C5 but with no retention of seniority.

Or none of this and C5 will just figure that between all the furloughed or laid off regional pilots that they will have plenty of potential applicants for any additional flying they get.


Unless there is a merger EV employees will not be offered at job at C5 until all Furloughed mainline United pilots have been given the opportunity to work at C5.

And for those who will flame me it’s in the United Pilot contract regarding SCOPE. If a company flies as United Express they must offer interviews to Furloughed mainline pilots before anyone else.
 
IAH901RT
Posts: 3
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:06 am

Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:39 am

August 2nd will be the tell tale date. If C5 doesn't issue the WARN notices to their employees by 8/1, then they will be the ones flying. Don't forget, it's not just the pilots. Both companies have plenty of employees that will be effected no matter what the outcomes is.
 
dstblj52
Topic Author
Posts: 406
Joined: Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:32 am

CriticalPoint wrote:
drdisque wrote:
Does C5 actually have a different scale than EV or is EV just more senior?

If C5 has a lower scale, I can see a situation where EV pilots may be offered jobs at C5 with some or all retention of seniority if they accept the lower scale (of course that would have to be negotiated with the C5 union).

If they have similar scales and EV is just more senior then I expect there just be an offer for most EV pilots to join C5 but with no retention of seniority.

Or none of this and C5 will just figure that between all the furloughed or laid off regional pilots that they will have plenty of potential applicants for any additional flying they get.


Unless there is a merger EV employees will not be offered at job at C5 until all Furloughed mainline United pilots have been given the opportunity to work at C5.

And for those who will flame me it’s in the United Pilot contract regarding SCOPE. If a company flies as United Express they must offer interviews to Furloughed mainline pilots before anyone else.

Sort of not really if they furlough anyone hired before the last contract signing 2016 and the company operates 70 or 76 seat aircraft for united express they must be converted to 70 seats and offer preferential hiring to united pilots at the rate of 5 per 70 seat aircraft in the fleet and start them one year two of the seniority list. But realistically there is no incentive for C5 or EV if they win to offer anything to the other airlines pilot group beyond a preferential interview to pilots of the other and start them at year one of their pay scale.
 
eugdjinn
Posts: 190
Joined: Thu May 01, 2008 5:58 pm

Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:32 pm

As to the fleet, they are all the same aircraft, every single one of them was once at ExpressJet, and was shifted by UA to C5 or Trans States. Really. So while the 25 still operating at EV (ExpressJet) are many of them the slightly older, 145LRs not 145XRs, they are not dead. (And let's just put the new to airliners myth that any aircraft at or near 20 years old needs to be parked immediately to rest! The 145 is built like the Emb-120 was - it's a tank. Properly cared for, she's good for plenty more years. I don't love them, and I don't love saying that, but it is true. Just like the 30 year old 767, make the inside look new, give them new paint, and nobody cares how old they actually are.) At the moment, only ExpressJet has been capable of doing the heavy checks, so UA had them do so, then hand freshly checked XRs to C5.

And yes, myth number two, even the pilots inside ExpressJet don't seem to realize that they are indeed only flying 20-25 aircraft, not 90. They are the smaller of the two entities right now. In September UA has them down to 20 planes. They are being wound down. Still, that same EV pilot group is promising not to take any concessions and to die on their swords. Hoorah, gentlemen... way to kill your airline! The flight attendants have been told by the head of their union, the redoubtable IAM, one Sara Gonzales that she will accept any concessions on their behalf to keep the airline alive. (Fun fact, Sara Gonzales is also the person who represents the flight attendants at Commutair!)

Finally, UAL sent either four or five additional VPs to ExpressJet with very generous salaries in the last year and a half, which oddly did not result in the departure of any existing VPs. This is par for the course at ExpressJet, very few people have ever left the HQ, in fact, the legacy ExpressJet HQ in Houston is also fully staffed with duplicate functions now dragging on the payroll. Not a single person has taken a paycut, VP or otherwise and no one has been reduced in force since the departure of the ASA 200s, the 900s, or the 700s that flew as Delta Connection, or American Eagle, excepting the large number of furloughed Flight Attendants. Which means there are now something on the order of 30-40 people in HQ per aircraft. Those are not people who make $9/hr. They are also long time folk whose salaries have gone up year after year regardless of actual performance for 20+ years.

Which is why when ExpressJet sent WARN notices everyone in the company got one. (And timed so that the 60 days will end on ... Sept. 11!)

You might note that there hasn't been so much as a peep about even a single WARN notice at Commutair.

And the EV maintenance base that did those heavy checks on the E145LR and E145XR fleet - CLE, has been told that they are definitely closing. (I think it's a safe bet that C5 will have a hiring event for mechanics in CLE real soon, and likely open an MX base there, in a hangar rented by UA perhaps?)

I don't see any conclusion possible except one: dead airline flying it's last.

ExpressJet is reportedly behind on its bills, (with the exception of payroll).

I see SkyWest 200s in UAX paint arriving in Houston suddenly this September.

And no, no merger. ExpressJet's pilot group has been part of killing ExpressJet multiple times, nobody in their right mind wants that group as anything other than zero seniority new hires firmly told to be quiet.
 
flight152
Posts: 3449
Joined: Fri Nov 24, 2000 8:04 am

Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:47 pm

eugdjinn wrote:
(I think it's a safe bet that C5 will have a hiring event for mechanics in CLE real soon, and likely open an MX base there, in a hangar rented by UA perhaps?)


Talk about making no sense. Why would C5 want to open a maintenance base in a city which they have no flying?? There is zero E145 flying in the UA CLE schedule.

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