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x1234
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Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Sat Jul 25, 2020 5:39 pm

I just found this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRAIC_CR929

Has there any progress on the Russian & Chinese jet CRAIC CR929? Is it still in the planning stages? Or this just a dream ala IL-96 and TU-204 which weren't successful!?
Last edited by x1234 on Sat Jul 25, 2020 5:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Sat Jul 25, 2020 5:41 pm

There was a fuselage mock-up and a lot of space dedicated to that project at MAKS2019 when I was there. It definitely still is a thing.
 
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Sat Jul 25, 2020 5:47 pm

There as an article published by FlightGlobaal not too long ago, stating that the programme is facing delays due ti "difficulties" between the parties involved in the programme.

CR929 faces delays amid Beijing, Moscow differences
 
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:00 am

Well the IL-96 and TU-204 are actual, certified, built planes that you can buy. The CR929 (aka 787 & A350 had a baby) is a decade from being that, in my opinion. At least.
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:08 am

The mock-up makes it look nearly identical to the 787. I hope the final design brings some originality or uniqueness to the world.
 
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:50 am

I am hoping they will manage. It might be the last totally new widebody I can take a flight on in my lifetime. Not that I'll expect to die soon but I can see Boeing and Airbus spend the next 20 years or so on some newer versions of the 350 and 787 before making a clean sheet widebody again, especially now with Covid and I sort of not see the business case of Boeings NMA
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Sun Jul 26, 2020 12:39 pm

The way the industry is, this might well never see daylight.
 
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Sun Jul 26, 2020 1:37 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
The way the industry is, this might well never see daylight.


The way politics are, with the Americans handling out sanctions left right and centre, especially to Russia and now China, I think the opposite. It is even more likely to happen, if nothing else to make them even less reliant on western imports.
 
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:14 pm

Two issues.

No money.
No buyers.

Especially in the today's market and recovery is off for five years more. Maybe more.
 
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:26 pm

It’s done and flying already, isn’t it? It’s called the 787.
 
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:26 pm

https://m.sohu.com/a/407053823_10018507 ... 00115_3w_a
Chinese media quoted Russian media saying that, China want to get technology transfer from Russia on the aircraft project, but Russia refused to.
Apparently China is using the "Chinese market" as a bargaining chip and say one cannot enter Chinese market without giving its technology to China

https://m.sohu.com/a/408898689_12011311 ... 00115_3w_a
Another Chinese report describe Russia's hesitation against sharing its aircraft technology to China as a "trap", trying to win over Chinese money without contributing its fair share
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:07 pm

I always wondered what the point of this venture was, I really don't think that Russia has anything to gain from the Chinese aviation industry. They already know how to make airliners (even widebodies) and have been doing so for decades.
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:25 pm

UA735WL wrote:
I always wondered what the point of this venture was, I really don't think that Russia has anything to gain from the Chinese aviation industry. They already know how to make airliners (even widebodies) and have been doing so for decades.

Financial resources for development and more importantly product support. Production capacity. Built in export orders. All things that have challenged Russian aircraft development in the last 30 years. And they haven’t put a new widebody program in the air since before the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
 
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:31 pm

luckyone wrote:
UA735WL wrote:
I always wondered what the point of this venture was, I really don't think that Russia has anything to gain from the Chinese aviation industry. They already know how to make airliners (even widebodies) and have been doing so for decades.

Financial resources for development and more importantly product support. Production capacity. Built in export orders. All things that have challenged Russian aircraft development in the last 30 years. And they haven’t put a new widebody program in the air since before the dissolution of the Soviet Union.


Good points for sure. Evidently they've decided that those aren't worth the risk of giving any technology to China and having them steal it (it would be naive to think otherwise). We shall see where this goes.
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:54 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
Two issues.

No money.
No buyers.

Especially in the today's market and recovery is off for five years more. Maybe more.


For some reason, people keep forgetting that Russia and China aren't free market economies...

Both statements are false. Both Russia and China have the will, funds and ability to develop and force their own airlines and air forces to take them. For Russia it's a market of probably no more than 200 frames at most, but for China we are talking easily 600 just for the commercial airlines not including growth, and easily a couple hundred more for the military in the form of VIP transports, tanker transports, AWACS platforms and such. As the aircraft matures (and lets face it, if they manage to turn out the first couple of hundred, it will), it will see exports, initially to Russian and Chinese proxy states, but possible even more than that if it turns out competitive. With it being a long term project, you will eventually see a CR929neo replacing many early CR929s, adding even more to the total. We know for a fact that China did that with the ARJ-21 and C919, and Russia hasn't been shy about using tax policies to make the SSJ more attractive to Russian carriers. Laugh all you want at the ARJ-21, but they now have over 30 in service with no signs of relenting. They already forced airlines and lessors to sign for over 1000 C919s.

As for the money, China certainly doesn't lack the funds. What Russia lacks is western capital, but rubles they have enough of. One of the primary purposes of the CR929 is to ween themselves off of western imports, so the CR929 has few of those costly western components that Russia can't afford.

The only question as far as I see it, is if they have the political will to get it done. But with the Americans pushing for more sanctions on China, it's only going to move in one direction.
 
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:59 pm

UA735WL wrote:
luckyone wrote:
UA735WL wrote:
I always wondered what the point of this venture was, I really don't think that Russia has anything to gain from the Chinese aviation industry. They already know how to make airliners (even widebodies) and have been doing so for decades.

Financial resources for development and more importantly product support. Production capacity. Built in export orders. All things that have challenged Russian aircraft development in the last 30 years. And they haven’t put a new widebody program in the air since before the dissolution of the Soviet Union.


Good points for sure. Evidently they've decided that those aren't worth the risk of giving any technology to China and having them steal it (it would be naive to think otherwise). We shall see where this goes.

This program needs Chinese money and the economy of scale from Chinese participation and Chinese airlines contributing.

The Chinese have been far too greedy stealing technology. This is making everyone nervous.

Both would like this to happen. "You always have to buy the horse twice from the Russian" is an old proverb for a reason.

Both are very long sighted negotiators. There is no rush to develop this aircraft (for a few years). So I expect negotiations to stall.

By the time the plane is launched, the 787 will have engine upgrades (variable cycle cooling from the LEAP, better engine cooling control from the GE9x, and CMC turbine components (not rotating blades) from the GE9x too. I'm sure RR will advance their engine, but they have less off the shelf techn ready). So, just as with the ARJ-21, it will enter service at least half a generation behind as both the 787 and A350 will receive extensive PiPs (e.g., the planned weight loss of the 787, probably both to receive more underside laminar flow on the wings).

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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:44 pm

c933103 wrote:
Apparently China is using the "Chinese market" as a bargaining chip and say one cannot enter Chinese market without giving its technology to China

They used to just steal it. Now they have to bargain for it. It's a sign that their "partners" are now better at protecting their IP.
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:40 am

lightsaber wrote:
UA735WL wrote:
luckyone wrote:
Financial resources for development and more importantly product support. Production capacity. Built in export orders. All things that have challenged Russian aircraft development in the last 30 years. And they haven’t put a new widebody program in the air since before the dissolution of the Soviet Union.


Good points for sure. Evidently they've decided that those aren't worth the risk of giving any technology to China and having them steal it (it would be naive to think otherwise). We shall see where this goes.

This program needs Chinese money and the economy of scale from Chinese participation and Chinese airlines contributing.

The Chinese have been far too greedy stealing technology. This is making everyone nervous.

Both would like this to happen. "You always have to buy the horse twice from the Russian" is an old proverb for a reason.

Both are very long sighted negotiators. There is no rush to develop this aircraft (for a few years). So I expect negotiations to stall.

By the time the plane is launched, the 787 will have engine upgrades (variable cycle cooling from the LEAP, better engine cooling control from the GE9x, and CMC turbine components (not rotating blades) from the GE9x too. I'm sure RR will advance their engine, but they have less off the shelf techn ready). So, just as with the ARJ-21, it will enter service at least half a generation behind as both the 787 and A350 will receive extensive PiPs (e.g., the planned weight loss of the 787, probably both to receive more underside laminar flow on the wings).

Lightsaber

With EIS saod to be something around 2030 without comsidering anticipated delays due to factors like this, but the time wouldn't new engine option for both widebodies be launched already?
But apparently it's anticipated for the CR929 to suppprt one pilot operation?
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Mon Aug 03, 2020 1:05 am

PD-35 demonstrator is up and running:

http://www.ato.ru/content/nachalis-ispy ... =mai&pos=2
 
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Mon Aug 03, 2020 3:34 am

c933103 wrote:
https://m.sohu.com/a/408898689_12011311 ... 00115_3w_a
Another Chinese report describe Russia's hesitation against sharing its aircraft technology to China as a "trap", trying to win over Chinese money without contributing its fair share


Russia is not happy at the amount of technology especially in defence aviation that China has been stealing or copying. They actually stopped delivery on a air defence missile system recently over this very issue.
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Mon Aug 03, 2020 3:43 am

Only useful comment I can add is that this project is not conceptually new. China and Russia have been trying to catch up to US / European aircraft technology for 75 years.

In 20 years, US and European airliner technology will have moved on significantly from today's already high level. They got there by doing apex-level basic sciences, materials sciences, and aircraft design and production under a mature intellectual property regime. I don't know what explains the ability of the US and Europe to pull off these big projects. It's more than money, which China has plenty of. It's something to do with governance imo.
 
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Mon Aug 03, 2020 4:10 am

LCDFlight wrote:
Only useful comment I can add is that this project is not conceptually new. China and Russia have been trying to catch up to US / European aircraft technology for 75 years.

In 20 years, US and European airliner technology will have moved on significantly from today's already high level. They got there by doing apex-level basic sciences, materials sciences, and aircraft design and production under a mature intellectual property regime. I don't know what explains the ability of the US and Europe to pull off these big projects. It's more than money, which China has plenty of. It's something to do with governance imo.

Governance is exactly why these programs have issues. It is a top down culture. I, as a junior engineer, had programs changed for better designs (not the big stuff, the little stuff that keeps the big stuff from working right). Schedules need to be realistic. Designers need to be properly motivated to do good work. To design over-weight parts if that is all that works and figure out where to get the weight out elsewhere. Figure out why software doesn't work (For example, C919 had anti-lock breaking issues and thus why Honeywell was brought in.)

The ARJ-21 was late, that wasn't the issue. The issue was no one said a 5-across cross section is horridly over-weight for the size of aircraft resulting in CF-34-10 posering an aircraft in the CF-38-8 size range.

The C919 has its own issues. Entry into service was supposed to be 2016 (now 2026):
https://simpleflying.com/comac-c919-delivery/

Aircraft has a sales shelf life. New technology comes out and the base concept that can usually be improved about a half generation of tech. But at some time a significant redesign is required (rewing and re-engine). But unless subsystems are replaced, maintenance and NVH (noise, vibration harshness) will be a generation behind.

Unless there is a redesign, the concept will go stale. Subsystems, engines, avionics, and wing tech moves forward.

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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Mon Aug 03, 2020 4:41 am

x1234 wrote:
I just found this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRAIC_CR929

Has there any progress on the Russian & Chinese jet CRAIC CR929? Is it still in the planning stages? Or this just a dream ala IL-96 and TU-204 which weren't successful!?


Il-96 and Tu-204 were not a dream, they were designed and first flown 30 years ago. Although in much smaller numbers than it's western counterparts the Tu-204 has had 87 frames built with 14 on order and the Il-96 has had 30 built with under construction. Keep in mind the era the aircraft were built in also.
 
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Mon Aug 03, 2020 1:35 pm

Melbourne wrote:
x1234 wrote:
I just found this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRAIC_CR929

Has there any progress on the Russian & Chinese jet CRAIC CR929? Is it still in the planning stages? Or this just a dream ala IL-96 and TU-204 which weren't successful!?


Il-96 and Tu-204 were not a dream, they were designed and first flown 30 years ago. Although in much smaller numbers than it's western counterparts the Tu-204 has had 87 frames built with 14 on order and the Il-96 has had 30 built with under construction. Keep in mind the era the aircraft were built in also.


Perhaps, but even then how many of each are actually in service with commercial operators?
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:59 am

The delay of EIS to 2029 seems confirmed: https://asiatimes.com/2020/09/china-rus ... urbulence/
The pair’s CR929 project to launch a dual-aisle airliner is said to have come to a halt. Widespread dissension among Chinese and Russian officials and technicians may even threaten to unravel the venture, once touted by Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin as an example of what both countries could collaborate to achieve.
...
Citing a source within Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac), the Chinese state-owned plane-maker involved in the CR929 project, Hong Kong’s Ming Pao Daily revealed a duel over the selection of key suppliers, a process that may be delayed for a year after experts from both countries failed to reach a consensus.

Russia’s United Aircraft Corp confirmed that the expected delivery of the jet that can fly up to 440 passengers in one class will be pushed back by three to four years to 2029.
...
“China and Russia working as one can feed into each other’s needs and work around any barriers and red tape in airworthiness certification as the United States and Europe may want to sabotage the process.

“China and Russia may institute their regulatory regime and together woo buyers from the third world, like those carriers from Africa, South Africa and Eastern Europe.


https://thetimeshub.in/the-ministry-of- ... r929/7451/
The Ministry of Industry and Trade, in the new version of the state program for the development of the aviation industry of the Russian Federation, prepared by it, pointed out the problems with the choice of suppliers of units for the Russian-Chinese passenger aircraft CR929.

“As part of the Aviation Units and Instruments subprogram, a number of indicators have been adjusted downward due to a decrease in orders under the state defense order, a delay in the process of selecting suppliers of aggregates and avionics (avionics) for the project of creating a wide-body long-range aircraft by the Chinese side,” an explanatory note to the draft government decree that amends the state program

It appears that not only is Russia getting less work share than expected, but there are fewer government orders than planned as well. This also looks like a concession that regular airlines haven't shown enough interest to counteract the reduced government funding.
 
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:40 am

The global ambitions of Aeroflot and the top Chinese airlines would be too much at risk if they fly internationally what would be seen as Russian made aircraft.
If it's only for domestic routes, the market would be too small.
So I think this program is too premature.
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:07 am

lightsaber wrote:
Aircraft has a sales shelf life. New technology comes out and the base concept that can usually be improved about a half generation of tech. But at some time a significant redesign is required (rewing and re-engine). But unless subsystems are replaced, maintenance and NVH (noise, vibration harshness) will be a generation behind.

Unless there is a redesign, the concept will go stale. Subsystems, engines, avionics, and wing tech moves forward.

All completely rational and reasonable statements that I basically agree.
I suppose the ever-evolving B737, viewed from the product shelf life standpoint, is an exception that proves the rule. (Let's ignore the MAX saga for the moment.)
 
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:13 pm

brianK73 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Aircraft has a sales shelf life. New technology comes out and the base concept that can usually be improved about a half generation of tech. But at some time a significant redesign is required (rewing and re-engine). But unless subsystems are replaced, maintenance and NVH (noise, vibration harshness) will be a generation behind.

Unless there is a redesign, the concept will go stale. Subsystems, engines, avionics, and wing tech moves forward.

All completely rational and reasonable statements that I basically agree.
I suppose the ever-evolving B737, viewed from the product shelf life standpoint, is an exception that proves the rule. (Let's ignore the MAX saga for the moment.)

The difference is widebodies fly further, so a few percentage difference in fuel burn matters mor.

Subsystems: The 737NG underwent substantial subsystem upgrades. But the MAX doesn't have A220 or 787 level subsystems that vut maintenance costs, take out much of the uncertainty (sensors for predictive maintenance). The NEO took avionics and subsystems forward more.

Wing: The 737NG and 777x have received wings that were state of the art at EIS. The only reason the MAX has any sales life is a newer wing than the A320.

Engines: The 737NG had compromised, poorly optimized engines. The MAX has engines optimized for a shorter range than where it will fly.

Cockpit: Wear earplugs when discussing with pilots about the creature comforts of the MAX cockpit. You have been warned that the discussion will become animated.

The A320NEO and MAX are assuming the MC-21 doesn't get its act together timely. I'm an advocate that the NSA would have followed the NMA if the MAX and NMA had gone as planned.

This CR929 is now looking at entering service about when a significant set of engine PiPs happen with the 787/A350. When it enters service, a new generation of CFRP will have finished development (extreme long fiber 3D printed CFRP, better in every way).

Look at the C919. If it had made EIS in 2016, it would have been interesting competitor. In 2026 The A321NEO is PiP'd into the A321xLR, Boeing will by then have the -10;MAX. Most importantly, the prefictive maintenance of the NEO/MAX will have been tuned by in service data (it take 4 to 5 years of data with 1,000+ aircraft in service, or longer if fewer, a la 787).

The CR929 has the wing technology set. It was just too early to develop folding wingtips that enables underside laminar flow.

Due to the lack if listening to lower level bengineers, this plane is likely to need 2 to 5 years of debugging before ETOPS. I feel the same way about the C919 IMHO, the ARJ-21 would not yet be in service if the FAA oversaw certification; yes, it took a damage to its reputation, but the FAA found issues with the MRJ (wiring) and Cessna Longitude (design assurance, proving the design is robust enough, in particular the fuel tank that required cooling) that delayed it:
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... s-approval

On the plus side, we'll be back in a normal world.

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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:12 pm

Lightsaber,

Thank you very much for the great analysis of the evolution of a venerable 737 aircraft.

What I did not consider was the fact that the 737 evolved in stages as already certified and proven aircraft in volume production with amortized initial engineering costs.
I now see that, if the CR929 project is delayed for a large fraction of an "aircraft engineering generation", CR929 will have to go through additional revised design engineering which cannot build upon the amortized engineering costs.

I had an opportunity to get to know some of the high-level development engineers with the MRJ project at an early stage, and came away that some of them were confident, know-it-all types.
They may have been afflicted with the common misconception of confidence as having all the set answers from the get go, rather than having the ability to making sound problem solving decisions as unexpected issues come up.

I am all for listening to the line-level engineers who deal with the real life issues where the rubber meets the road, and I hope the CR929 project does not fall into the same trap.
 
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:00 pm

2175301 wrote:
There's a difference between "break-even" which Russia has said is between $42 and $43 dollars a barrel to fund the minimum necessary government functions; and what Russia would like to fund in relations to new projects for the future.


Sorry, this is not how it works. If oil gets above $42.4, all surplus money goes to the Stabfund. There are no "new projects" that suddenly pop up just because the oil price baked into the budget was too pessimistic. On the other hand, if oil price goes under $42.4, Stabfund money will be used to fund projects that have been budgeted. Again, no surprises here. You need to learn some Russian and read Russian sources (in addition to Western ones) to be a Russian economy expert.

2175301 wrote:
There was an article a month or two ago where the Russian Finance Minister (or equivalent) said that the 2021 budget was based on $60 per barrel oil


It's $56: https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2019/10/23/ ... -za-barrel

And there is no "equivalent", it's just the Finance Minister, Mr Anton Siluanov: https://minfin.gov.ru/ru/ministry/structure/management/
 
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Re: Any progress on the Russian Chinese jet CRAIC CR929?

Fri Oct 09, 2020 1:49 am

workhorse wrote:
2175301 wrote:
There's a difference between "break-even" which Russia has said is between $42 and $43 dollars a barrel to fund the minimum necessary government functions; and what Russia would like to fund in relations to new projects for the future.


Sorry, this is not how it works. If oil gets above $42.4, all surplus money goes to the Stabfund. There are no "new projects" that suddenly pop up just because the oil price baked into the budget was too pessimistic. On the other hand, if oil price goes under $42.4, Stabfund money will be used to fund projects that have been budgeted. Again, no surprises here. You need to learn some Russian and read Russian sources (in addition to Western ones) to be a Russian economy expert.

2175301 wrote:
There was an article a month or two ago where the Russian Finance Minister (or equivalent) said that the 2021 budget was based on $60 per barrel oil


It's $56: https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2019/10/23/ ... -za-barrel

And there is no "equivalent", it's just the Finance Minister, Mr Anton Siluanov: https://minfin.gov.ru/ru/ministry/structure/management/


And... the way it works is that if the budget is based on a higher per barrel number than what they get... They cut projects that were budgeted. Russia has been cutting a lot of projects these past few years...

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Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos