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x1234
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Re: Emirates cancels SCL

Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:12 pm

It’s weird that they launched SCL. Chile increasingly has relations with East Asia but not so much Africa/Middle East and South Asia which is EKs bread and butter. If they were smart they’d launch EZE non-stop from DXB as EZE is more global. Also Chile is the most developed country in South America and is the only Latin country in the US VISA Waiver program and the cheapest fares go via LAX to Asia or faster via AKL/SYD.
 
chonetsao
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Re: Emirates cancels SCL

Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:25 pm

x1234 wrote:
It’s weird that they launched SCL. Chile increasingly has relations with East Asia but not so much Africa/Middle East and South Asia which is EKs bread and butter. If they were smart they’d launch EZE non-stop from DXB as EZE is more global. Also Chile is the most developed country in South America and is the only Latin country in the US VISA Waiver program and the cheapest fares go via LAX to Asia or faster via AKL/SYD.


When this route was launched, Chile was a destination with great expectations. Resource rich, a better managed country in Latin America. It is also full of tourist resources from desert in the north to the snow mountains and glaciers in the south. What is more, the thriving battery mining trade that used to power the electronic cars is developing in nearby Bolivia that many Asian car maker executives would go via Chile to try to secure the shipment. Not to mention Chinese buyers that comes to Chile for salmon fish, wine and minerals. Some of the Asia executives I mentioned all have problem with transfer via Sydney or Auckland, firstly is the visa restrictions, especially Auckland. Secondly is that such transit would require long wait in airport and involve with at least 2 or sometimes 3 different airlines, and often there is no cheaper through fares available. Distance wise it is not exactly too much saving via AKL. For instance, PVG to SCL via DXB and GIG is 13180 miles one way, and PVG-AKL-SCL is 11830 miles one way. From PEK, via DXB and GIG is 12810 miles, via AKL is 12470 miles.
 
9Patch
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:50 am

Rajahdhani wrote:
From the other bank of the stream, that is the thought - that the 777X needs time - to mature into a market that better needs it, I wonder how much time Boeing can afford to sit on the program.

What, if any, time additions to the program can be added - at lowest, or no, costs? (for an off-ball example, can the certification program be 'de-stressed' and elongated to better use a smaller number of aircraft? Lowered production rate?)

How would a longer certification program save Boeing money?
 
9Patch
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:06 am

scbriml wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
The myth about Lufthansa having too many 777X on order dates from an interview with Carsten Spohr many years ago. He said they MAY have ordered too many 777X, but this was at the time when LH listed 34 777X on order in their books. However, Boeing only counted 20, as 14 of the 34 were reconfirmable orders. LH decided around a year ago not to reconfirm these 14. But many posters here still believe LH wants to reduce the 20 firm 777X orders too.

But it wasn't really a myth, was it? He said "We may have ordered too many 777X and too few A350s". Subsequently, their 777X commitments were reduced and additional A350s ordered.

Quite different when you don't selectively edit the quote, eh?
 
Toinou
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Re: Emirates cancels SCL

Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:34 am

chonetsao wrote:
Secondly is that such transit would require long wait in airport and involve with at least 2 or sometimes 3 different airlines, and often there is no cheaper through fares available. Distance wise it is not exactly too much saving via AKL. For instance, PVG to SCL via DXB and GIG is 13180 miles one way, and PVG-AKL-SCL is 11830 miles one way. From PEK, via DXB and GIG is 12810 miles, via AKL is 12470 miles.

Thanks for those numbers. It reminds me that I often forget how large the Pacific is! Instinctively, I would think that going through DXB from East Asia to South America is a detour while in fact it is not (or at least it is less than for many people transiting in ME3 hubs).

And the visa question is obviously important with some other transit points (especially US and AUS) being probably more complicated to manage visa-wise.
 
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Faro
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:51 am

ewt340 wrote:
A330-200 is too small...B767 is too small and unsuitable for many long-haul routes.

Fast forward, we got B787 and A350 into the scenario and it paint a different picture for the widebody market. Both model effectively replace B777-200ER. It's not long until they do the same for B777-300ER in the future.

We als have to clarify that it doesn't sold 309 units since there were cancellations from Etihad. And conversion from some airlines.



I agree on the 309 figure, yes... the figure will be --or rather is already-- less than that in terms of valid orders outstanding today.

But on the other hand, why were the A330-200 and B767 "too small" with respect to the 772-ER/77W but the B787 and A350 are not too small with respect to the 779X?

One can perhaps make a quasi-case for the 33-ton lower MTOW A350-1000 that admits the loss of a significant cargo uplift capability (and cargo is a big part of the profitability equation) but the 787? Unless and until the elusive 787-10ER actually materialises --which is not at all on anyone's radar screen until COVID-19 is substantially and permanently past us, and God only knows when that will be-- that is not really a consistent proposition.


Faro
The chalice not my son
 
Avgeek21
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Re: Emirates cancels SCL

Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:29 pm

This was filed earlier today. Seems it’s still at 3 times a week; https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-21jul20/
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:05 pm

Faro wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
A330-200 is too small...B767 is too small and unsuitable for many long-haul routes.

Fast forward, we got B787 and A350 into the scenario and it paint a different picture for the widebody market. Both model effectively replace B777-200ER. It's not long until they do the same for B777-300ER in the future.

We als have to clarify that it doesn't sold 309 units since there were cancellations from Etihad. And conversion from some airlines.



I agree on the 309 figure, yes... the figure will be --or rather is already-- less than that in terms of valid orders outstanding today.

But on the other hand, why were the A330-200 and B767 "too small" with respect to the 772-ER/77W but the B787 and A350 are not too small with respect to the 779X?

One can perhaps make a quasi-case for the 33-ton lower MTOW A350-1000 that admits the loss of a significant cargo uplift capability (and cargo is a big part of the profitability equation) but the 787? Unless and until the elusive 787-10ER actually materialises --which is not at all on anyone's radar screen until COVID-19 is substantially and permanently past us, and God only knows when that will be-- that is not really a consistent proposition.


Faro


The A332 was too small for what a lot of airlines needed it to do, and it didn't quite have the legs of the 747 (or indeed the 77W) until late in its life.

The A35K is a pretty capable cargo hauler, the volume may be a tad smaller than the 77W, but in terms of weight it's probably only just behind (though we'd need someone to verify this).
 
marcoantona
Posts: 87
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Re: Emirates cancels SCL

Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:23 pm

Avgeek21 wrote:
This was filed earlier today. Seems it’s still at 3 times a week; https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-21jul20/

At the beginning of the post it states: As noted last week on Airlineroute, various websites reporting selected destinations has been cancelled, however reservation remains available at time this post goes to press.
Staff in Chile have already been informed the route is continuing cargo-only and Emirates has already confirmed is dropping passenger service.
Link to Spanish media: https://aero-naves.com/2020/07/18/emira ... -covid-19/
 
DylanHarvey
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:13 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
Faro wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
A330-200 is too small...B767 is too small and unsuitable for many long-haul routes.

Fast forward, we got B787 and A350 into the scenario and it paint a different picture for the widebody market. Both model effectively replace B777-200ER. It's not long until they do the same for B777-300ER in the future.

We als have to clarify that it doesn't sold 309 units since there were cancellations from Etihad. And conversion from some airlines.



I agree on the 309 figure, yes... the figure will be --or rather is already-- less than that in terms of valid orders outstanding today.

But on the other hand, why were the A330-200 and B767 "too small" with respect to the 772-ER/77W but the B787 and A350 are not too small with respect to the 779X?

One can perhaps make a quasi-case for the 33-ton lower MTOW A350-1000 that admits the loss of a significant cargo uplift capability (and cargo is a big part of the profitability equation) but the 787? Unless and until the elusive 787-10ER actually materialises --which is not at all on anyone's radar screen until COVID-19 is substantially and permanently past us, and God only knows when that will be-- that is not really a consistent proposition.


Faro


The A332 was too small for what a lot of airlines needed it to do, and it didn't quite have the legs of the 747 (or indeed the 77W) until late in its life.

The A35K is a pretty capable cargo hauler, the volume may be a tad smaller than the 77W, but in terms of weight it's probably only just behind (though we'd need someone to verify this).

From what I’ve seen posted around here the 35K is between 149-151t DOW, which at 223t MZFW leaves 72-74t of payload. IIRC the 77W is around 169t-174t and has a 237t MZFW which is 63-68t. But the 77W has 46 LD3 spots compared to 44 for the 35K. The efficiency advantage of course goes to the 35K as it’s newer. MZFW range is similar I think in the 5700-6000nm range for both, and the range at MZFW might be a little higher on the 77W by 100-200nm.
 
ewt340
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:06 pm

Faro wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
A330-200 is too small...B767 is too small and unsuitable for many long-haul routes.

Fast forward, we got B787 and A350 into the scenario and it paint a different picture for the widebody market. Both model effectively replace B777-200ER. It's not long until they do the same for B777-300ER in the future.

We als have to clarify that it doesn't sold 309 units since there were cancellations from Etihad. And conversion from some airlines.



I agree on the 309 figure, yes... the figure will be --or rather is already-- less than that in terms of valid orders outstanding today.

But on the other hand, why were the A330-200 and B767 "too small" with respect to the 772-ER/77W but the B787 and A350 are not too small with respect to the 779X?

One can perhaps make a quasi-case for the 33-ton lower MTOW A350-1000 that admits the loss of a significant cargo uplift capability (and cargo is a big part of the profitability equation) but the 787? Unless and until the elusive 787-10ER actually materialises --which is not at all on anyone's radar screen until COVID-19 is substantially and permanently past us, and God only knows when that will be-- that is not really a consistent proposition.


Faro


Capacity wise, A330-200 and all variants of B767 are way too small compared to B777-200ER. There are at least 50 seats differences between those models.
Range wise, Earlier version of A330-200 doesn't have as much range as B777-200ER, nor could it carry as much payload as B777-200ER. Same goes for B767.
Again, There is no aircraft that could match both B777-200ER and B777-300ER back then. Not A330, not A340 or B767.

A350-1000 is slightly bigger than B777-8. It also have commonality with the successful A350-900.
10-abreast B777-300ER is slightly bigger than A350-1000. Many of them are still extremely young (below 5 years of age), extremely efficient, and already being paid for. It's also smaller compared to B777-9. Which is easier to fill and readily available after the pandemic for a cheaper price because of the surplus of capacity in the industry.

I wouldn't call it B787-10ER. I would probably called it enhancement. The range increase would probably increased overtime because of the higher mtow, it would probably increased by ~500nmi. So around ~7,000nmi after couple of years if the program continued.
We would see if this gonna happen when Air New Zealand would receive their order. Because they are the first one who order the enhanced version.

I guess the most important factor right now is conversion rather than capability.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:04 pm

There is no official statement from Boeing that they will offer an enhanced version of the 787-10 AFAIK.
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:08 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
There is no official statement from Boeing that they will offer an enhanced version of the 787-10 AFAIK.

Apparently they promised NZ an enhanced version
 
descl
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Re: Emirates cancels SCL

Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:50 pm

marcoantona wrote:
Avgeek21 wrote:
This was filed earlier today. Seems it’s still at 3 times a week; https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-21jul20/

At the beginning of the post it states: As noted last week on Airlineroute, various websites reporting selected destinations has been cancelled, however reservation remains available at time this post goes to press.
Staff in Chile have already been informed the route is continuing cargo-only and Emirates has already confirmed is dropping passenger service.
Link to Spanish media: https://aero-naves.com/2020/07/18/emira ... -covid-19/

Sorry but in the article you posted, Emirates does not confirm they are dropping passenger servivces; they say operations to SCL are currently suspended due to travel restrictions because of the pandemic, and that they hope to restart flights as soon as it´s commercial and operational feasible.
 
descl
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Re: Emirates cancels SCL

Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:00 am

x1234 wrote:
It’s weird that they launched SCL. Chile increasingly has relations with East Asia but not so much Africa/Middle East and South Asia which is EKs bread and butter. If they were smart they’d launch EZE non-stop from DXB as EZE is more global. Also Chile is the most developed country in South America and is the only Latin country in the US VISA Waiver program and the cheapest fares go via LAX to Asia or faster via AKL/SYD.

I think cargo is/was the main driver of their operations to SCL. Emirates was the leading carrier used by salmon companies that exported their products to Asia.
In any case, they had good LFs and a sizeble portion of PAXs (~45%-50%) going to DXB.
 
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zeke
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:47 am

Opus99 wrote:
Scotron12 wrote:
There is no official statement from Boeing that they will offer an enhanced version of the 787-10 AFAIK.

Apparently they promised NZ an enhanced version


Nothing from Boeing or the airline indicating that, what was mentioned was a further engine improvement.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
9Patch
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:32 am

ewt340 wrote:
Faro wrote:
Capacity wise, A330-200 and all variants of B767 are way too small compared to B777-200ER. There are at least 50 seats differences between those models.

Maybe in the age of covid, small is beautiful. Less is blessed.
 
2175301
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:02 am

9Patch wrote:
Rajahdhani wrote:
From the other bank of the stream, that is the thought - that the 777X needs time - to mature into a market that better needs it, I wonder how much time Boeing can afford to sit on the program.

What, if any, time additions to the program can be added - at lowest, or no, costs? (for an off-ball example, can the certification program be 'de-stressed' and elongated to better use a smaller number of aircraft? Lowered production rate?)

How would a longer certification program save Boeing money?



A slightly longer certification program saves money by eliminating overtime. I suspect that decision has already been made. I anticipate it will add a couple months, which will not have a material impact on deliveries in the current environment.

There are no reasons to extend it beyond that.

Have a great day,
 
Scotron12
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:42 am

Good news from CX. They have concluded negotiations with Airbus to defer deliveries on A350s and A321s. Instead of receiving them from now thru 2023, they will receive them from now thru 2025.

They are in advance discussions with Boeing to delay their 779s, but no plans to cancel or swap for any 787s.



https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-catha ... KKCN24N01G
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:58 am

Scotron12 wrote:
Good news from CX. They have concluded negotiations with Airbus to defer deliveries on A350s and A321s. Instead of receiving them from now thru 2023, they will receive them from now thru 2025.

They are in advance discussions with Boeing to delay their 779s, but no plans to cancel or swap for any 787s.



https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-catha ... KKCN24N01G

Very good news indeed. At least Boeing can rest on that one. Now let’s see what comes of the Emirates negotiations
 
Cerecl
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:18 am

Scotron12 wrote:
They are in advance discussions with Boeing to delay their 779s, but no plans to cancel or swap for any 787s.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-catha ... KKCN24N01G

The quoted news does not contain any information about CX's intention with regard to 777X in addition to deferring. Where did you read the part about no plan to cancel or swap?
Fokker-100 SAAB 340 Q400 E190 717 737 738 763ER 787-8 772 77E 773 77W 747-400 747-400ER A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A346 A359 A380
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:26 am

Cerecl wrote:
Scotron12 wrote:
They are in advance discussions with Boeing to delay their 779s, but no plans to cancel or swap for any 787s.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-catha ... KKCN24N01G

The quoted news does not contain any information about CX's intention with regard to 777X in addition to deferring. Where did you read the part about no plan to cancel or swap?

https://simpleflying.com/cathay-pacific-airbus-defer/

Maybe read that. It was apparently very clear from their presentation they had no intention of swapping or cancelling they’re only focusing on deferrals. Which they will obviously get from Boeing
 
Cerecl
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:39 am

Opus99 wrote:
Maybe read that. It was apparently very clear from their presentation they had no intention of swapping or cancelling they’re only focusing on deferrals. Which they will obviously get from Boeing

The "official prospectus" apparently states 777-9 is sought after by CX. It doesn't mean they will need all 21. The airline industry is entering into unchartered territory and COVID cases are rising in HK. What is "official" now may not be so in 3 months. It would be very hard to believe CX does not insert substitution or cancellation terms into their negotiated agreement with Boeing.
Fokker-100 SAAB 340 Q400 E190 717 737 738 763ER 787-8 772 77E 773 77W 747-400 747-400ER A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A346 A359 A380
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:49 am

Cerecl wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Maybe read that. It was apparently very clear from their presentation they had no intention of swapping or cancelling they’re only focusing on deferrals. Which they will obviously get from Boeing

The "official prospectus" apparently states 777-9 is sought after by CX. It doesn't mean they will need all 21. The airline industry is entering into unchartered territory and COVID cases are rising in HK. What is "official" now may not be so in 3 months. It would be very hard to believe CX does not insert substitution or cancellation terms into their negotiated agreement with Boeing.

Maybe when they come back with no cancellations then you’ll believe it. They said they’re negotiating deferrals, if they were looking for substitutions or cancellations I’m sure they would’ve made it somewhat obvious. How do you know what they need? Are you their fleet planner. Please rest
 
Cerecl
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:03 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Maybe when they come back with no cancellations then you’ll believe it. They said they’re negotiating deferrals, if they were looking for substitutions or cancellations I’m sure they would’ve made it somewhat obvious. How do you know what they need? Are you their fleet planner. Please rest

:lol: By your standard almost every member on this forum should "rest" and ~1/3 of the topics are superfluous if we only rely on the "official" announcement from airlines.
777-9X is going to be CX's largest airplane and we all know what happens to the largest airplane in a pandemic. I am pretty confident that there is not a single CX fleet planner who is 100% sure what they need in 2022, so it only makes sense for them to prepare accordingly.
Fokker-100 SAAB 340 Q400 E190 717 737 738 763ER 787-8 772 77E 773 77W 747-400 747-400ER A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A346 A359 A380
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:14 pm

Cerecl wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Maybe when they come back with no cancellations then you’ll believe it. They said they’re negotiating deferrals, if they were looking for substitutions or cancellations I’m sure they would’ve made it somewhat obvious. How do you know what they need? Are you their fleet planner. Please rest

:lol: By your standard almost every member on this forum should "rest" and ~1/3 of the topics are superfluous if we only rely on the "official" announcement from airlines.
777-9X is going to be CX's largest airplane and we all know what happens to the largest airplane in a pandemic. I am pretty confident that there is not a single CX fleet planner who is 100% sure what they need in 2022, so it only makes sense for them to prepare accordingly.

Official word aside even. From what we know from yesterday they said they are negotiating deferrals. CX has not cancelled a single aircraft.

Who’s to say they won’t need the -9 in 5 to 10 years. Clearly they think they will because their original delivery date was next year which makes no sense. If they wanted to cancel this aircraft they would’ve done it since and they would’ve probably made to clear to their investors that that was their intention. Secondly, how do you know they want to differ to 2022? It can be 2024 even 2025. Secondly, the largest aircraft in a pandemic? This aircraft is not even service for starters, secondly every aircraft that has been pushed out has been a 4 engined aircraft because they are simply inefficient. Size definitely plays a role but the primarily it’s efficiency. If it was all about the bigger the worse. Then as people are sending off 747s they should send off A35Ks and 77Ws. I cannot keep explaining this same thing over and over again.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:00 pm

I think it's all a bit up in the air. No pun. Recent reports are that up to 30 B787s are sitting around with no customers taking them.

If the 777X production is in full swing, who's taking them? Simple Flying writes that LH is taking their 779s next year, but at the same time LH is deferring A350s?

Airbus and Boeing are not saying, so most is speculation at this time. If no 787s are getting delivered, chances are that no 779s are either.
 
ewt340
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:30 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Cerecl wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Maybe when they come back with no cancellations then you’ll believe it. They said they’re negotiating deferrals, if they were looking for substitutions or cancellations I’m sure they would’ve made it somewhat obvious. How do you know what they need? Are you their fleet planner. Please rest

:lol: By your standard almost every member on this forum should "rest" and ~1/3 of the topics are superfluous if we only rely on the "official" announcement from airlines.
777-9X is going to be CX's largest airplane and we all know what happens to the largest airplane in a pandemic. I am pretty confident that there is not a single CX fleet planner who is 100% sure what they need in 2022, so it only makes sense for them to prepare accordingly.

Official word aside even. From what we know from yesterday they said they are negotiating deferrals. CX has not cancelled a single aircraft.

Who’s to say they won’t need the -9 in 5 to 10 years. Clearly they think they will because their original delivery date was next year which makes no sense. If they wanted to cancel this aircraft they would’ve done it since and they would’ve probably made to clear to their investors that that was their intention. Secondly, how do you know they want to differ to 2022? It can be 2024 even 2025. Secondly, the largest aircraft in a pandemic? This aircraft is not even service for starters, secondly every aircraft that has been pushed out has been a 4 engined aircraft because they are simply inefficient. Size definitely plays a role but the primarily it’s efficiency. If it was all about the bigger the worse. Then as people are sending off 747s they should send off A35Ks and 77Ws. I cannot keep explaining this same thing over and over again.


I don't think we should put cancelation into consideration. The more logical moves by them would probably deferrals or Conversion to B787.
I think at this point, I see them taking their time until Boeing lose their patient before they make another big move.
 
dcajet
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Re: Emirates cancels SCL

Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:08 am

Avgeek21 wrote:
This was filed earlier today. Seems it’s still at 3 times a week; https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-21jul20/


It's not accurate; Emirates may still be working on all updates regarding cancellations & consolidation of routes. If you look further down on the same list you will see that GRU is coming back with only 2 weekly frequencies. SCL, EWR nonstop from Dubai, Adelaide, Zagreb and Porto are all gone/suspended from the network.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 25, 2020 8:13 am

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Emirates believes the 777X will slip further and deliveries won't happen before 2022.


So it seems Emirates was probably right.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... 4P2JI?il=0
SEATTLE/PARIS (Reuters) - Boeing Co (BA.N) is preparing to delay its all-new 777X jet by several months or up to a year, three people familiar with the matter said, as the COVID-19 crisis exacerbates a drop in demand for the industry’s largest jetliners.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 25, 2020 8:36 am

scbriml wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
Emirates believes the 777X will slip further and deliveries won't happen before 2022.


So it seems Emirates was probably right.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... 4P2JI?il=0
SEATTLE/PARIS (Reuters) - Boeing Co (BA.N) is preparing to delay its all-new 777X jet by several months or up to a year, three people familiar with the matter said, as the COVID-19 crisis exacerbates a drop in demand for the industry’s largest jetliners.

I think this is the right decision. The aircraft is not needed now, 2-3 years down the line when capacity will (hopefully) been needed airlines will be keen to take their 777X. Moreover, (hopefully) US-China relations will improve and they can lock in those orders
 
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Boeing757100
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Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:47 pm

Here is the link
https://simpleflying.com/emirates-ceo-no-widebodies/

Will this Post-COVID market change widebodies role to domestic? I mean, the A380/747 are ending production in a couple of years, the 777X is getting delayed, 767F production will be down to 2 per month by 2025, the 787 has trent-1000 issues, the A330 production is slowing down dramatically, and with the introduction of long-range narrowbodies like the A321XLR, I think I can see a trend here. Another thing I want to ask is about the 797/NMA, and how it will be affected. If no new widebodies are expected, then what will happen to this proposal. Ever since April's end, we've seen HEAVILY RUMORED studies of a 757-Plus and 767X, so doubt was already on the NMA then. With this, do you think we'll see an NMA? I know it is supposedly a really small widebody, but still.

Thanks for answering
 
lhrnue
Posts: 366
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sat Jul 25, 2020 8:08 pm

What's the problem? 3 to 4 years is a mighty short time.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sat Jul 25, 2020 8:43 pm

COVID and other factors have temporarily slowed down global international traffic (obviously)

A321XLR will be even more of a big hit than anybody thought. Need for A380, 747, 777X is almost nil. They do not have superior unit cost to A350 and 787 AFAIK. The justification to bring in a VLA fleet with such narrow window of usability is just impossible now. Not "hard" but actually impossible.
 
2175301
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sat Jul 25, 2020 8:44 pm

The 777-9 will launch, and my understanding is that Lufthansa will take the first ones.

The NMA/797 is being reviewed to find an aircraft that can better match the future market slots - with a new cockpit design. That indeed is years away.

There is no 757 + being considered.

The 767-400 Freighter using updated engines (787/747 engines) will almost certainly be launched as the existing 767F does not meet the IACO 2028 standards for "In Production Aircraft." However, that will take a few years. I don't expect to see it launched before 2025.

I don't see how a 767-400 Passenger Aircraft with new engines would be competitive to more recent aircraft. I cannot see it being launched.

Note that this info on the existing B767 can be extracted from the "Proposed" EPA regulation posted this past week on Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Aircraft. They have some charts on allowed "New Designs - after 2020" and "Existing In Production Aircraft" which has unlabeled symbols for recent previous and existing in production aircraft. The Charts are based on MTOW (labeled as MTOM) - and you can figure out which dots are for which base models based on looking up the weights(mass) of various aircraft.

I actually have a nice picture of the Wide-body charts where I have labeled the dots (A380, B747, B777, A350, B787, A330, B767); but have yet figured out a way to make that picture visible on this site (and had more important things to do yesterday and today). I expect to have time by mid week.

Have a great day,
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sat Jul 25, 2020 8:51 pm

Both Airbus and Boeing are bleeding cash right now, no airline seems to want the orders they already booked, because they cannot finance them. There will be a LONG pause before there are any new derivatives, much less a new model.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sat Jul 25, 2020 8:53 pm

Neither Airbus or Boeing or the airline customers are currently in situation where they are going to commit to an all new wide body. Boeing is lucky that they hadn't committed to this NMA in whatever form a couple of years ago. The plans for a new large narrow-body (which was dubbed by one of the unnamed sources as a 757-Plus, but it was not a 757) and a re-engined 767 were on the table before Corona, most people didn't notice this because people don't actually read the articles that start a discussion. It they continue with those plans fully depends on their financial situation and how the market rebounds after this pandemic is over.

Other then a NMA there is also not a need for a new wide-body. Boeing has it's 787 line-up as the base with the 777X on top of this. Airbus has the A350 line-up + the A330neo underneath it. That should be enough for any airline that will want to move forward with new wide-body planes post Corona.

At some point new freighters are needed because of environmental regulations, but they can be created from the existing models. Any new engine developments will also be incorporated in the 787 and the A350 before a completely new plane is needed.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 573
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sat Jul 25, 2020 9:02 pm

2175301 wrote:
The 777-9 will launch, and my understanding is that Lufthansa will take the first ones.

The NMA/797 is being reviewed to find an aircraft that can better match the future market slots - with a new cockpit design. That indeed is years away.

There is no 757 + being considered.

The 767-400 Freighter using updated engines (787/747 engines) will almost certainly be launched as the existing 767F does not meet the IACO 2028 standards for "In Production Aircraft." However, that will take a few years. I don't expect to see it launched before 2025.

I don't see how a 767-400 Passenger Aircraft with new engines would be competitive to more recent aircraft. I cannot see it being launched.

Note that this info on the existing B767 can be extracted from the "Proposed" EPA regulation posted this past week on Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Aircraft. They have some charts on allowed "New Designs - after 2020" and "Existing In Production Aircraft" which has unlabeled symbols for recent previous and existing in production aircraft. The Charts are based on MTOW (labeled as MTOM) - and you can figure out which dots are for which base models based on looking up the weights(mass) of various aircraft.

I actually have a nice picture of the Wide-body charts where I have labeled the dots (A380, B747, B777, A350, B787, A330, B767); but have yet figured out a way to make that picture visible on this site (and had more important things to do yesterday and today). I expect to have time by mid week.

Have a great day,

Lufthansa also bought the 747-8 Intercontinental. Safe to say that LH isn't afraid to be unique.
 
johns624
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:34 pm

Duh, that's a nobrainer. Look at it from the opposite point of view. Boeing has the 777X and 787 and Airbus has the A350 and A330neo. All are relatively new designs. Why would there be a new widebody for years?
 
UA748i
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:51 pm

As a huge 777X fan, it might actually be a few years too late. It will certainly be the last "VLA" as we know it, but will survive, IMHO.

Its my opinion that Boeing Commercial Airplanes should:

-Continue development of the FSA. Launch it mid decade, EIS late decade, to replace the MAX.
-Consider a 787-9LR and 787-10LR as eventual 777X successors (Rewing, Reengine?)
-767 updates
-Early next decade, perhaps revisit SSTs and Hybrids, perhaps reapproach Embraer as a JV.
 
Aceskywalker
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:59 pm

The internal pessimist believes that even the 787 and A350 will be too big to fly profitably for the next several years, with a very slow crawl back to 2019 baseline stretching through the end of the decade. The A321(XLR) and whatever long range narrowbody Boeing or whoever cooks up will become the backbone of TATL travel like the 767 and A330 were beforehand. A narrowbody that can make Los Angeles to Northeast Asia will be the death knell for most TPAC widebody operations.
 
75driver
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sun Jul 26, 2020 12:49 am

johns624 wrote:
Duh, that's a nobrainer. Look at it from the opposite point of view. Boeing has the 777X and 787 and Airbus has the A350 and A330neo. All are relatively new designs. Why would there be a new widebody for years?


Exactly! The question is ridiculous. We’re, at minimum, a decade before the question needs to be addressed.

However, look at the other “whistling by the graveyard” topics and posts. Livery, ramp expansion, deliveries, route discussion, etc etc. These are trivial matters when an atomic bomb of Orwellian proportion has been dumped on the industry. The contraction is real. It doesn’t matter what aircraft are scheduled for delivery. It doesn’t matter what gates are expanding. It doesn’t matter livery an airline has. This is a generational event that appears to have missed many here.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:47 am

The only new wide-body I could see launching is the Airbus A330-800neo-based freighter at 251 metric tons, which would be an instant improvement over the 233 metric ton A332 freighter (which could also be de-rated to 242 metric tons)...the idea being to have enough range to compete with the Boeing 777 freighter. The Boeing 767 will need to be re-engined, as I do see hundreds of examples, mostly if not all freighters by then, with maybe LATAM and a few CIS operators still flying passenger examples, still in service by then.
 
32andBelow
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:09 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
The only new wide-body I could see launching is the Airbus A330-800neo-based freighter at 251 metric tons, which would be an instant improvement over the 233 metric ton A332 freighter (which could also be de-rated to 242 metric tons)...the idea being to have enough range to compete with the Boeing 777 freighter. The Boeing 767 will need to be re-engined, as I do see hundreds of examples, mostly if not all freighters by then, with maybe LATAM and a few CIS operators still flying passenger examples, still in service by then.

Why new build freighter when so many frames are going to be available to convert?
 
ewt340
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:22 am

There would be no widebody until 2030-2035 I say.

In couple of years, both A350 and B787 would got New Engine Options. So rather than coming up with new widebody, Both Airbus and Boeing would just push these aircraft rather than developed a new one.

What would probably happen is that they would make update and optimization to fit into Airlines operations. Maybe regional version (already done for SQ's A350R), higher MTOW or LR variants (SQ's A350ULR).
 
Aither
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:08 am

A smaller market does not mean smaller widebody aircraft.
A smaller market means less routes, less frequencies and more focus on the top markets.

I believe what will suffer the most are the so called point to point routes or routes with little connecting traffic. Typically routes promoted by Boeing as the "787 routes". I fear many wont come back before years and if they do and are within the A321 XLR range then they could restart with the A321XLR.

I also believe the hub to hub routes like SIN to LHR etc should remain operated by large widebody however as they will benefit from the traffic which can no longer fly point to point and maybe less Airlines on the routes. Also there should be less emphasis on frequencies as business traffic will be slow to recover.

All in all it should not be a surprise if we observe less but on average larger widebody being used on the long haut markets .
Never trust the obvious
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sun Jul 26, 2020 1:43 pm

Sherlock realized now? If he predicted a decade back he would have been a visionary. If he predicted 5 years back he can be considered a good planner. Now anybody can tell.

There is no way anyone could have predicted current situation is a just an excuse. At the minimum there should have been a plan B which EK completely lacks.
All posts are just opinions.
 
2175301
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Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 11:19 am

Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sun Jul 26, 2020 1:55 pm

32andBelow wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
The only new wide-body I could see launching is the Airbus A330-800neo-based freighter at 251 metric tons, which would be an instant improvement over the 233 metric ton A332 freighter (which could also be de-rated to 242 metric tons)...the idea being to have enough range to compete with the Boeing 777 freighter. The Boeing 767 will need to be re-engined, as I do see hundreds of examples, mostly if not all freighters by then, with maybe LATAM and a few CIS operators still flying passenger examples, still in service by then.

Why new build freighter when so many frames are going to be available to convert?


The question, which I have not yet figured out from the "proposed" EPA Aircraft emissions standard: How are P2F conversions handled under the standard? That was not obvious to me. It is obvious that the current 767F will not be allowed when the 2028 standards kick in. Does that also mean that 767 P2F conversions also stop at that point? That only the "neo's" "max" or other recent upgrade designations can be converted?

This question clearly also applies to the older models of most of the Airbus products as well.

Have a great day,
 
Vicenza
Posts: 127
Joined: Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:21 pm

Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:27 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Sherlock realized now? If he predicted a decade back he would have been a visionary. If he predicted 5 years back he can be considered a good planner. Now anybody can tell.

There is no way anyone could have predicted current situation is a just an excuse. At the minimum there should have been a plan B which EK completely lacks.


So enlighten me as to what Plan B did any other airline, and yourself have. I'll be very interested because I sure haven't seen any.
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:04 pm

UA748i wrote:
As a huge 777X fan, it might actually be a few years too late. It will certainly be the last "VLA" as we know it, but will survive, IMHO.

Its my opinion that Boeing Commercial Airplanes should:

-Continue development of the FSA. Launch it mid decade, EIS late decade, to replace the MAX.
-Consider a 787-9LR and 787-10LR as eventual 777X successors (Rewing, Reengine?)
-767 updates
-Early next decade, perhaps revisit SSTs and Hybrids, perhaps reapproach Embraer as a JV.

I'm going to disagree. In the industry, we look for step changes in efficiency. That would be the Blended Wing Body (BwB). It has huge structural efficiency advantages and some aerodynamic advantages. I participated in studies that I believe have cleared the evacuation issues. The BwB efficiency grows with scale more than a cigar with wings.

The VLA requires a significant efficiency advantage due to the risk of not filling seats (likely to be realized).

Eventually we will have another VLA. (Never say never) Certainly not in the near term.

Basically, we already know the NMA is delayed. But development won't stop. Only half of new technology can be retrofitted to an existing design. So eventually we will develop new widebodies. But not in the near term.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.

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