Kinda makes me wonder if there is another CARES deal in the works that we don't know about het. I feel like I've seen hints about another one but nothing too substantial. SWA hasn't been immune to all the coronavirus losses, of course. Any thoughts?
CARES2 is in the works. Airlines are optimistic about it. Personally, I have doubts as I don't see how they keep bailing out this one industry...Plus, every time the airlines say it is going to take years to get back to old travel levels they make the case that short-term bailouts make no sense.
Maybe they see a quick recovery and don’t need layoffs to make it through to better times.
No. I wish. Fall is going to be like May.
An incredible number of employees took voluntary long-term leaves with partial pay or a buyout to leave the Company.
The last number I saw was nearly 17,000 of 61,000 employees signed up for one of the programs. That is almost 28% of the workforce.
Included in that number is, I believe, almost 24% of the pilots and 33% of the flight attendants.
These long-term leaves begin in September.
I am sure this has contributed to furloughs not being necessary at this time.
Wow, those are impressive numbers for taking exit packages. With a rate like that, and maybe being mildly bullish on the recovery, WN is sized to where they want to be.
I think that's it. I'm not sure its "bullish" as much as they think they will loss-lead into being a bigger market share player post-COVID.
Correct, but either way, lots of money off the payroll for this winter which is likely going to be the toughest period of time of this pandemic for the airlines. By next summer, we should start to see the light at the end of the tunnel. Question is, can WN avoid furloughs for that entire period
I think September will be rock bottom unless there is a Fall spike and stay at home orders resume. If that happens you better buy gold.
Toughest period was April & early May by a wide margin, probably followed by this upcoming September.
Yup. We are super-lucky that the rushed through CARES package included September.
Is would probably be super expensive for an airline to furlough in October and ramp up pilot training for summer 21.
For people that work at the stations their hours will probably decline with the schedule.
I don't see pilots get force laid off except maybe at regionals. The same cannot be said for all the other employee types.
Then you get into Jan/Feb which are always bad for the airlines, even in the best of times. Maybe if we have a vaccine by then, spring break travel will be the first signs of life, but the airlines will still be much smaller. It’s going to be 4-6 months for widespread distribution of any vaccine, so I’m guessing next summer will be the first glimmer of light the industry sees for awhile
IMHO any vaccine will be incremental improvements. Fauci said 70% effectiveness is "best case" which means likely effectiveness is sub-50%. Is that enough to cause a night and day change in travel? I doubt it.
Even thanksgiving and Christmas seem like travel will be way down - do you really want to risk visiting extended family and bringing the virus with you or back home? Not to mention - colleges will be going online, students won’t need to travel. Yes yes they still claim they will be in person - give it 4 more weeks after they have all your money or 2 weeks into the semester when mass outbreaks start occurring and watch how quickly that changes.
Schools are still a question mark. I agree that the idea of spending time with your older relatives at the Holidays is probably going to get blitzed by the media as wreckless and dangerous. I think the Holidays are wasteland. OTOH, things may change markedly after the election as the pressure to make political points through fear-mongering should abate no matter who wins. The world is so much worse off that this thing occurred in a U.S. election year.
Maybe but also if there’s no schools and wfh people might keep going to Disney and then Hawaii might reopen.
At this point I wouldn't be surprised if Hawaii seceded. I don't see Hawaii liberalizing any time soon. Disney is a question mark. I haven't seen their numbers since reopening.
Quite literally nothing will be as bad as what we saw in April, we had days with 3% yoy of last years travel.
I think consensus is that September will be around 25% of prior year among the Wall Street analysts. We peaked at around 45% in June.
Their words were actually no furloughs October 1 and no intentions to seek furloughs, pay or benefits cuts through at least the end of the year but they can’t guarantee they will never happen.
I don't see how airport workers don't get a furlough. Sad to say...