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tnair1974
Posts: 303
Joined: Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:37 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/28/2020:SLOW BLEED;AA Cuts LAX-EUG/FAT/MFR/RDM/SAN/SDF,LGA-TYS,ORD-SCE;DL Drops HAV/TGU/BOS Shrinks

Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:07 pm

SurfandSnow wrote:

enilria wrote:
*AA LAX-MFR AUG 0.7>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0] OCT 1.0>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0[1.5] JAN 0.9>0[1.2] FEB 1.0>0[1.0]
*AA LAX-RDM AUG 0.7>0[1.4] SEP 1.0>0[1.0] OCT 1.0>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0[1.5] JAN 0.9>0[1.2] FEB 1.0>0[1.0]
**AA LAX-SAN SEP 6>1.2[5] OCT 6>0[5] NOV 6>0[4] DEC 6>0[5] JAN 5>0[5] FEB 7>0[5] MAR 5>0[5] APR 5>0[3]
*AA LAX-SDF SEP 1.0>0.2[0.9] OCT 1.0>0[0.8] NOV 1.0>0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0[0.9] JAN 0.9>0[0.8] FEB 1.0>0[0.7]

None of these cuts are surprising. I was honestly shocked to see AA add LAX-SDF in the first place, and am surprised it lasted this long. DFW and ORD should be able to offer AA's SDF travelers access to LAX easily enough - as well as almost all of the connecting opportunities LAX did. I suppose AA could always try a nonstop PHX-SDF service too. I can't help but wonder if MFR and RDM could be served nonstop from DFW in the future as well (once the economy rebounds, of course). I have to think the improved access to PHX is much appreciated in those markets though. I may sound like a broken record here, but connecting through LAX sucks. The airport just isn't designed with connections in mind.


Even for those that were anticipating SDF-LAX, seems there was surprise that it was AA that started the service. Until the merger with US, AA had long been weaker at SDF than other airlines like DL and WN. But as WN already operates SDF-PHX/DEN/LAS, perhaps there was concern WN SDF-LAX could siphon traffic away from the other flights.

Anyway, AA's SDF-LAX loads were better than expected (anybody know the yields?, I suspect yields were only ok at best). June 2019 had about a 92% load factor which later dropped to about 74% by September 2019. Frequency at times dropped to six or even five weekly flights during the off-peak months. While a few flights had to be upgauged to A321s/738s (not just to replace a A319 gone tech), at other times only about 50 passengers were on board. Most of the traffic to/from LAX was local, not transfer...perhaps echoing earlier comments on LAX being a cantankerous place to connect.

WN started SDF-PHX back around 1995 or so. Even without the pandemic, I suspect there isn't enough of a market to support both WN and AA on SDF-PHX.
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 5268
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/28/2020:SLOW BLEED;AA Cuts LAX-EUG/FAT/MFR/RDM/SAN/SDF,LGA-TYS,ORD-SCE;DL Drops HAV/TGU/BOS Shrinks

Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:20 am

tnair1974 wrote:
SurfandSnow wrote:

enilria wrote:
*AA LAX-MFR AUG 0.7>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0] OCT 1.0>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0[1.5] JAN 0.9>0[1.2] FEB 1.0>0[1.0]
*AA LAX-RDM AUG 0.7>0[1.4] SEP 1.0>0[1.0] OCT 1.0>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0[1.5] JAN 0.9>0[1.2] FEB 1.0>0[1.0]
**AA LAX-SAN SEP 6>1.2[5] OCT 6>0[5] NOV 6>0[4] DEC 6>0[5] JAN 5>0[5] FEB 7>0[5] MAR 5>0[5] APR 5>0[3]
*AA LAX-SDF SEP 1.0>0.2[0.9] OCT 1.0>0[0.8] NOV 1.0>0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0[0.9] JAN 0.9>0[0.8] FEB 1.0>0[0.7]

None of these cuts are surprising. I was honestly shocked to see AA add LAX-SDF in the first place, and am surprised it lasted this long. DFW and ORD should be able to offer AA's SDF travelers access to LAX easily enough - as well as almost all of the connecting opportunities LAX did. I suppose AA could always try a nonstop PHX-SDF service too. I can't help but wonder if MFR and RDM could be served nonstop from DFW in the future as well (once the economy rebounds, of course). I have to think the improved access to PHX is much appreciated in those markets though. I may sound like a broken record here, but connecting through LAX sucks. The airport just isn't designed with connections in mind.


Even for those that were anticipating SDF-LAX, seems there was surprise that it was AA that started the service. Until the merger with US, AA had long been weaker at SDF than other airlines like DL and WN. But as WN already operates SDF-PHX/DEN/LAS, perhaps there was concern WN SDF-LAX could siphon traffic away from the other flights.

Anyway, AA's SDF-LAX loads were better than expected (anybody know the yields?, I suspect yields were only ok at best). June 2019 had about a 92% load factor which later dropped to about 74% by September 2019. Frequency at times dropped to six or even five weekly flights during the off-peak months. While a few flights had to be upgauged to A321s/738s (not just to replace a A319 gone tech), at other times only about 50 passengers were on board. Most of the traffic to/from LAX was local, not transfer...perhaps echoing earlier comments on LAX being a cantankerous place to connect.

WN started SDF-PHX back around 1995 or so. Even without the pandemic, I suspect there isn't enough of a market to support both WN and AA on SDF-PHX.


It's was only surprising until you learned SDF had $1.3 million allocated toward the flight, then it was no longer surprising
https://www.bizjournals.com/louisville/ ... coast.html

Loads were not good, monthly loads weren't higher than 75% since July (#'s excluding one-off MX swaps)

Compared to routes of similar distance from LAX, RASM was significantly underperforming :
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tphuang
Posts: 5199
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/28/2020:SLOW BLEED;AA Cuts LAX-EUG/FAT/MFR/RDM/SAN/SDF,LGA-TYS,ORD-SCE;DL Drops HAV/TGU/BOS Shrinks

Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:43 am

I think with COVID, a lot of these transcon and near transcon routes out of LAX that don't have a lot of first class demand will be cut by the legacies. They will just rely on the connections. Maybe DL will keep most of these around, but I think AA will cut stuff like CMH and BDL also. Maybe AS will pick them up. If not, I think ULCCs will start a few of these. After all, PIT-LAX is now dominated by NK in the summer time.
 
Aliqiout
Posts: 377
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:10 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/28/2020:SLOW BLEED;AA Cuts LAX-EUG/FAT/MFR/RDM/SAN/SDF,LGA-TYS,ORD-SCE;DL Drops HAV/TGU/BOS Shrinks

Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:26 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
enilria wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
The DOT isnt going after any airline losing billions of dollars in a quarter for trying to partner with an airline losing hundreds of millions in a quarter.

I completely disagree. The DOT and DOJ were involved in vetting these deals or will be. Just because this is a time of crazy change doesn't mean laws stop being enforced.
wedgetail737 wrote:
AS is starting those LAX-FAT and OR flights...but is AA codesharing those flights? Doesn't codesharing make it illegal under the agreement of the VX purchase. I think the motivation is about OneWorld...not necessarily AA...but some could read between the lines.

The AS-VX merger specifically restricted AA and AS code sharing in LAX. I don't think those small markets were included, BUT AFAIK the issue was related to technically satisfying the terms of the DOJ/DOT ruling. For example, they definitely can't code share on LAX-JFK, but what happens with FAT-LAX-JFK? If the AA code is on AS FAT-LAX they probably can't technically stop that from being created and I think their agreement with DOJ/DOT precludes that. I think it is close enough to the line that they haven't wanted to broach it. Could that change? Maybe, but it hasn't yet as I understand it.
FlyingElvii wrote:
Today’s GDP numbers just put an end to speculating on what happens this winter, pretty clearly. All airlines are going to have to adjust to the reality of it all.

The GDP numbers didn't tell us anything we didn't already know did it? 1/3rd of people lost their jobs, 1/3rd of GDP went away. I don't think those numbers do anything other than put a another number to what we already knew. Air travel is presently down about 65%. The airlines would love if it were only down 33%.



-Oxygen Mask rule over 240 gone
-Landing expiration over 90 days gone
-Headset usage during training gone
-Havent seen an FAA examiner on a JS in months

Lots of rules and laws in avaition have gone by the wayside since this started

Heck, you can go to your local restaurant and get a cocktail to go and walk down the street with it in many states.

Whole new world with lots of flexibility.

The regulators will see three airlines losing a combined number in the billions, employing well over 100000 people trying to reshuffle the deck to stay afloat.

When other options include bailouts, bankruptcy and/or liquidation, a codeshare approval doesnt seem so bad

Your examples are very different though, they all are decisions to alter rules by the people who have the legal authority to make the rules. In the case if the merger restrictions there is no body that can unilaterally change the rules.

That's not to say enforcement will not be a top priority.

But the other thing to consider is that a code share isn't required to cooperate. An interline with favorable ticket combinabilty rules will do the same thing.
 
CMHtraveler
Posts: 191
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/28/2020:SLOW BLEED;AA Cuts LAX-EUG/FAT/MFR/RDM/SAN/SDF,LGA-TYS,ORD-SCE;DL Drops HAV/TGU/BOS Shrinks

Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:49 pm

tphuang wrote:
I think with COVID, a lot of these transcon and near transcon routes out of LAX that don't have a lot of first class demand will be cut by the legacies. They will just rely on the connections. Maybe DL will keep most of these around, but I think AA will cut stuff like CMH and BDL also. Maybe AS will pick them up. If not, I think ULCCs will start a few of these. After all, PIT-LAX is now dominated by NK in the summer time.


Really hope they don’t totally cut CMH. AA is very strong in CMH, and according to the RASM chart above the route was performing as expected compared to its peers. CMH-LAX was up to 2x daily last summer and the current alternative (if/when it returns) is 1x daily DL red eye.

I do understand they want to shrink LAX overall and it wouldn’t be the worst thing if AS were to pick up this route instead, but losing AA on this route would really be a shame for so many of us who relied on it for years. Hard to understand how a city like CMH can support 3 airlines flying mainline-sized aircraft to DEN (F9/WN/UA) but can’t support 2 flights to a city the size of LAX.
 
sldispatcher
Posts: 405
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2007 3:55 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/28/2020:SLOW BLEED;AA Cuts LAX-EUG/FAT/MFR/RDM/SAN/SDF,LGA-TYS,ORD-SCE;DL Drops HAV/TGU/BOS Shrinks

Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:34 pm

UAL loaded Sept finally
Will look forward to the details in the next OAG update.
 
jasoncrh
Posts: 778
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 10:29 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/28/2020:SLOW BLEED;AA Cuts LAX-EUG/FAT/MFR/RDM/SAN/SDF,LGA-TYS,ORD-SCE;DL Drops HAV/TGU/BOS Shrinks

Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:20 pm

AA also added September and made more August cuts... getting sad

sldispatcher wrote:
UAL loaded Sept finally
Will look forward to the details in the next OAG update.
 
jasoncrh
Posts: 778
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 10:29 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/28/2020:SLOW BLEED;AA Cuts LAX-EUG/FAT/MFR/RDM/SAN/SDF,LGA-TYS,ORD-SCE;DL Drops HAV/TGU/BOS Shrinks

Sun Aug 02, 2020 1:15 pm

AA did a massive schedule change overnight for August and September. United did too. Suggest putting out an update.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 3502
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/28/2020:SLOW BLEED;AA Cuts LAX-EUG/FAT/MFR/RDM/SAN/SDF,LGA-TYS,ORD-SCE;DL Drops HAV/TGU/BOS Shrinks

Sun Aug 02, 2020 2:11 pm

jasoncrh wrote:
AA did a massive schedule change overnight for August and September. United did too. Suggest putting out an update.


He has to wait til it is released later in the week.
 
graham697
Posts: 396
Joined: Fri Dec 12, 2003 11:59 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/28/2020:SLOW BLEED;AA Cuts LAX-EUG/FAT/MFR/RDM/SAN/SDF,LGA-TYS,ORD-SCE;DL Drops HAV/TGU/BOS Shrinks

Sun Aug 02, 2020 2:13 pm

Yeah, my GRR to IAD nonstop got axed for post-Labor Day. Going to be interesting to see what else is included.
 
Aliqiout
Posts: 377
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:10 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/28/2020:SLOW BLEED;AA Cuts LAX-EUG/FAT/MFR/RDM/SAN/SDF,LGA-TYS,ORD-SCE;DL Drops HAV/TGU/BOS Shrinks

Sun Aug 02, 2020 2:25 pm

jasoncrh wrote:
AA did a massive schedule change overnight for August and September. United did too. Suggest putting out an update.


Pretty demanding, this post is a lot of work. He updates it weekly shortly after the data becomes available.

We all appreciate it.
 
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enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10251
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/28/2020:SLOW BLEED;AA Cuts LAX-EUG/FAT/MFR/RDM/SAN/SDF,LGA-TYS,ORD-SCE;DL Drops HAV/TGU/BOS Shrinks

Mon Aug 03, 2020 2:45 am

Aliqiout wrote:
jasoncrh wrote:
AA did a massive schedule change overnight for August and September. United did too. Suggest putting out an update.


Pretty demanding, this post is a lot of work. He updates it weekly shortly after the data becomes available.

We all appreciate it.

Thanks

Yes if I could impact the update day I would have stuck with Sunday!
 
jplatts
Posts: 3612
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/28/2020:SLOW BLEED;AA Cuts LAX-EUG/FAT/MFR/RDM/SAN/SDF,LGA-TYS,ORD-SCE;DL Drops HAV/TGU/BOS Shrinks

Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:22 am

CMHtraveler wrote:
Really hope they don’t totally cut CMH. AA is very strong in CMH, and according to the RASM chart above the route was performing as expected compared to its peers. CMH-LAX was up to 2x daily last summer and the current alternative (if/when it returns) is 1x daily DL red eye.

I do understand they want to shrink LAX overall and it wouldn’t be the worst thing if AS were to pick up this route instead, but losing AA on this route would really be a shame for so many of us who relied on it for years. Hard to understand how a city like CMH can support 3 airlines flying mainline-sized aircraft to DEN (F9/WN/UA) but can’t support 2 flights to a city the size of LAX.


NK or WN adding CMH-LAX nonstop service might be a possibility once demand for Ohio to West Coast travel returns as a few nearby markets such as CVG, CLE, DTW, and PIT have nonstop service to LAX on at least one LCC. G4 adding LCK-LAX nonstop service might also be a possibility.

tphuang wrote:
Maybe DL will keep most of these around, but I think AA will cut stuff like CMH and BDL also. Maybe AS will pick them up.


I had previously mentioned AS adding BDL-SEA nonstop service as a possibility with BDL being one of the top destinations not currently served nonstop from SEA, and I also agree that AS adding BDL-LAX nonstop service is a possibility if AS adds service to BDL.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 880
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/28/2020:SLOW BLEED;AA Cuts LAX-EUG/FAT/MFR/RDM/SAN/SDF,LGA-TYS,ORD-SCE;DL Drops HAV/TGU/BOS Shrinks

Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:50 am

CMHtraveler wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I think with COVID, a lot of these transcon and near transcon routes out of LAX that don't have a lot of first class demand will be cut by the legacies. They will just rely on the connections. Maybe DL will keep most of these around, but I think AA will cut stuff like CMH and BDL also. Maybe AS will pick them up. If not, I think ULCCs will start a few of these. After all, PIT-LAX is now dominated by NK in the summer time.


Really hope they don’t totally cut CMH. AA is very strong in CMH, and according to the RASM chart above the route was performing as expected compared to its peers. CMH-LAX was up to 2x daily last summer and the current alternative (if/when it returns) is 1x daily DL red eye.

I do understand they want to shrink LAX overall and it wouldn’t be the worst thing if AS were to pick up this route instead, but losing AA on this route would really be a shame for so many of us who relied on it for years. Hard to understand how a city like CMH can support 3 airlines flying mainline-sized aircraft to DEN (F9/WN/UA) but can’t support 2 flights to a city the size of LAX.

CMH-LAX has been done by a number of airlines over the years. Airways, America West, AA a couple of times if I recall correctly, DL, even Skybus.
The college crowd makes it extremely fare sensitive, they will go with whatever is a buck cheaper, even if it means two east coast connections to go to LA.
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 5181
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/28/2020:SLOW BLEED;AA Cuts LAX-EUG/FAT/MFR/RDM/SAN/SDF,LGA-TYS,ORD-SCE;DL Drops HAV/TGU/BOS Shrinks

Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:16 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
CMHtraveler wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I think with COVID, a lot of these transcon and near transcon routes out of LAX that don't have a lot of first class demand will be cut by the legacies. They will just rely on the connections. Maybe DL will keep most of these around, but I think AA will cut stuff like CMH and BDL also. Maybe AS will pick them up. If not, I think ULCCs will start a few of these. After all, PIT-LAX is now dominated by NK in the summer time.


Really hope they don’t totally cut CMH. AA is very strong in CMH, and according to the RASM chart above the route was performing as expected compared to its peers. CMH-LAX was up to 2x daily last summer and the current alternative (if/when it returns) is 1x daily DL red eye.

I do understand they want to shrink LAX overall and it wouldn’t be the worst thing if AS were to pick up this route instead, but losing AA on this route would really be a shame for so many of us who relied on it for years. Hard to understand how a city like CMH can support 3 airlines flying mainline-sized aircraft to DEN (F9/WN/UA) but can’t support 2 flights to a city the size of LAX.

CMH-LAX has been done by a number of airlines over the years. Airways, America West, AA a couple of times if I recall correctly, DL, even Skybus.
The college crowd makes it extremely fare sensitive, they will go with whatever is a buck cheaper, even if it means two east coast connections to go to LA.


TW, US (early 90s and again around the time the merger with AA was announced), AA, HP, and DL have flown CMH-LAX. AA started CMH-LAX on the 738, handed it off to US on the 319 briefly before the merger, and re-assumed it once the merger was finished.

SX was CMH-BUR.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 665
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/28/2020:SLOW BLEED;AA Cuts LAX-EUG/FAT/MFR/RDM/SAN/SDF,LGA-TYS,ORD-SCE;DL Drops HAV/TGU/BOS Shrinks

Tue Aug 04, 2020 10:56 am

CMH is the home of a number of notable retail chains, all of which now are in the toilet or in Chapter 11. Seems as though CHM/LAX would have made sense at one time but I would imagine deeply troubled retail firms have restricted travel.
 
CMHtraveler
Posts: 191
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/28/2020:SLOW BLEED;AA Cuts LAX-EUG/FAT/MFR/RDM/SAN/SDF,LGA-TYS,ORD-SCE;DL Drops HAV/TGU/BOS Shrinks

Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:53 pm

[code][/code]
Miamiairport wrote:
CMH is the home of a number of notable retail chains, all of which now are in the toilet or in Chapter 11. Seems as though CHM/LAX would have made sense at one time but I would imagine deeply troubled retail firms have restricted travel.


The retail chains were in trouble long before COVID, including last summer when AA when 2x on CMH-LAX. Looking at today’s OAG thread, you can see a bunch of AA LAX cuts including peer airports like IND. I think it mostly boils down to medium-sized airports being at the mercy of the legacy carriers’ hub plans. Outside of WN and the LCCs, we get the occasional P2P flight (like DL CMH-LAX actually), but mainly these days it’s feeders to hubs. As it’s still being cut month to month at this point, I am cautiously optimistic AA CMH-LAX will resume (especially now that AA CMH-PHX is scheduled to resume in Sept). If not, I’m sure someone else will pick up the slack. There were double-digit daily flights from CMH to NY and Chicago pre-COVID. LA is too large a city to have 1x redeye.
 
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EA CO AS
Posts: 15730
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Re: OAG Changes 7/28/2020:SLOW BLEED;AA Cuts LAX-EUG/FAT/MFR/RDM/SAN/SDF,LGA-TYS,ORD-SCE;DL Drops HAV/TGU/BOS Shrinks

Wed Aug 05, 2020 4:39 am

enilria wrote:
The AS-VX merger specifically restricted AA and AS code sharing in LAX.


That's not entirely accurate. It restricted codesharing from LAX to the specific key airports in the AA network only. At a high-level, the order basically rendered the pre-merger VX network off-limits for codesharing with AA.

https://www.justice.gov/atr/case-docume ... 1/download
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