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Ishrion
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Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 12:23 pm

Boeing announced several changes to production:

- 737 production will gradually increase slower with 31 aircraft per month by 2022 instead of 2021.
- The combined 777 and 777X production will be two per month instead of three in 2021.
- 777X first delivery now targeted for 2022.
- 787 production will reduce to six per month in 2021
- Boeing studies consolidating 787 production to one location (Everett/Charleston).
- 767/747 production rates remain unchanged.
- 747 production will end in 2022 with continued 747 operational support into the future.

https://boeing.mediaroom.com/news-relea ... tem=130713
https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2020-07-29 ... er-Results
Last edited by Ishrion on Wed Jul 29, 2020 12:47 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
Spetsnaz55
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 12:37 pm

I'm probably going to be laid off...

Bad time for aviation
 
Prost
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 12:41 pm

Boeing will now whipsaw Washington and South Carolina for the best ‘deal’.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 12:42 pm

Ishrion wrote:
- 787 production will reduce to six per month instead of seven per month in 2021.
- 787 production increases to seven per month in 2022 + Boeing studies consolidating 787 production to one location (Everett/Charleston).


I don't think that's what they mean.

The linked release says:
We will further reduce 787 production to six per month in 2021. This is an adjustment down from the reduction we announced last quarter to 10 per month currently and seven per month by 2022.

I read that as - we previously announced 10/month currently, reducing to 7/month in 2022, but we're now reducing to six/month in 2021.

The consolidation part is not surprising. It seems daft to run two production lines only producing three planes a month each. So given the -10 is currently only produced at Charleston, does that suggest all 787 production moving there?
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Ishrion
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 12:49 pm

scbriml wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
- 787 production will reduce to six per month instead of seven per month in 2021.
- 787 production increases to seven per month in 2022 + Boeing studies consolidating 787 production to one location (Everett/Charleston).


I don't think that's what they mean.

The linked release says:
We will further reduce 787 production to six per month in 2021. This is an adjustment down from the reduction we announced last quarter to 10 per month currently and seven per month by 2022.

I read that as - we previously announced 10/month currently, reducing to 7/month in 2022, but we're now reducing to six/month in 2021.

The consolidation part is not surprising. It seems daft to run two production lines only producing three planes a month each. So given the -10 is currently only produced at Charleston, does that suggest all 787 production moving there?


Sorry, thanks, fixed it.
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:03 pm

scbriml wrote:
The consolidation part is not surprising. It seems daft to run two production lines only producing three planes a month each. So given the -10 is currently only produced at Charleston, does that suggest all 787 production moving there?

Unless Boeing finds a way to ship 787-10 fuselages to Everett from Charleston, this seems inevitable. The 787-10 fuselage parts are too long to fit in a Dreamlifter.

But what if demand rises and Boeing wants to increase production? I don't think CHS can produce more than 7 787s per month?
Restarting production at Everett won't be that easy. It's going to be a tricky decision.
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Exeiowa
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:06 pm

frigatebird wrote:
scbriml wrote:
The consolidation part is not surprising. It seems daft to run two production lines only producing three planes a month each. So given the -10 is currently only produced at Charleston, does that suggest all 787 production moving there?

Unless Boeing finds a way to ship 787-10 fuselages to Everett from Charleston, this seems inevitable. The 787-10 fuselage parts are too long to fit in a Dreamlifter.

But what if demand rises and Boeing wants to increase production? I don't think CHS can produce more than 7 787s per month?
Restarting production at Everett won't be that easy. It's going to be a tricky decision.


I wonder if they will tell the two states this fact before they try to shake them both down for more money.
Last edited by Exeiowa on Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Ziyulu
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:09 pm

Why can't Boeing build fuselages in Charleston? They don't need to ship them.
 
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smittythepirate
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:22 pm

frigatebird wrote:
scbriml wrote:
The consolidation part is not surprising. It seems daft to run two production lines only producing three planes a month each. So given the -10 is currently only produced at Charleston, does that suggest all 787 production moving there?

Unless Boeing finds a way to ship 787-10 fuselages to Everett from Charleston, this seems inevitable. The 787-10 fuselage parts are too long to fit in a Dreamlifter.

But what if demand rises and Boeing wants to increase production? I don't think CHS can produce more than 7 787s per month?
Restarting production at Everett won't be that easy. It's going to be a tricky decision.


It was rumored (a couple years ago) that they were eventually going to extend the final assembly by building one production spot to allow 2 separate lines and take over most of the production for the 787.

It would seem to be a waste of resources to shut down the assembly line in Charleston though, especially after building the new paint bays recently
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744SPX
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:47 pm

If the 777-9 is proving to be more airplane than people want or need, maybe that bodes well for the 777-8, not just as a freighter but as a pax aircraft as it will still be at least as efficient as anything in its size category, even if not being used on ULR flights.
 
LY777
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:53 pm

Guys, you know, the market will end recovering and airlines will need aircraft like the 779X
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:01 pm

Ishrion wrote:
- Boeing studies consolidating 787 production to one location (Everett/Charleston).


A few months ago I started a thread based on this subject:

Boeing's twin 787 assembly lines at risk

The thread was closed because people believed it was fake news.

So here we are.
Good moaning!
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:03 pm

Prost wrote:
Boeing will now whipsaw Washington and South Carolina for the best ‘deal’.


I'm not so sure. Let's not forget that Charleston is the only location where Boeing can assemble the 787-10.
Good moaning!
 
mxaxai
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:04 pm

Ziyulu wrote:
Why can't Boeing build fuselages in Charleston? They don't need to ship them.

It's the other way around. Boeing can't build the fuselages in Seattle.
 
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zeke
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:11 pm

LY777 wrote:
Guys, you know, the market will end recovering and airlines will need aircraft like the 779X


The market needing an aircraft of that size and manufacturer making money from it are very different propositions, the A380 and 748 are examples of that.
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Opus99
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:22 pm

744SPX wrote:
If the 777-9 is proving to be more airplane than people want or need, maybe that bodes well for the 777-8, not just as a freighter but as a pax aircraft as it will still be at least as efficient as anything in its size category, even if not being used on ULR flights.

Boeing would have to make design changes and re market the aircraft to be optimal for non-ULH
 
Relayer
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:05 pm

This thread got me thinking. Why is it that the next revision of every plane is usually bigger until it becomes "more plane than is needed". I think it is rooted in human nature to think that bigger is "new and improved". What if, for example, Boeing had spent money on making the 747 a twin instead of going the way they did? Maybe it would have had to be smaller than the 744 if need be? Just a thought. Bigger may not always be better.

Relayer
 
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A300neo
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:05 pm

So no news about the 767X? Frustrating :(
 
randomdude83
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:13 pm

I'm surprised at the doom and gloom comments about the 777X.

Its going to be Fine. it'll make its money. The delay is not caused by faults with the 777X program, just the Covid situation. so no major redesign spending going on here really. just a 2 year hold? it can not be that costly really.

Might i remind you all, Boeing had the 787 delays for what? 5 years and it got past that.

it'll get past the 737 max soon. and basically they have 2 years to perfect the 777x and make it ready to replace all these 77W/A380s, 747s that will need replacement within the next 10 years once the market picks up again in a year or two.

And when the time comes for replacement. Boeing should have 787/777x and the NSA ready/proven to roll.

Also one more reminder, back then when the 77W was just rolling, 911 happened and no one was buying...and now look at where it is, just study that on its own. thats where boeing needs to be.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:14 pm

None of this news from Boeing is at all surprising. We will hear similar news from Airbus soon.

On to the side subject of wide body demand and international travel. ANet is extremely pessimistic on international travel recovery, irrationally so in my opinion. I believe international travel will remain extremely depressed until effective vaccines are widely administered globally. From everything published so far, I expect the world to be widely vaccinated by Q2 of 2021. Starting in Q3 2021 global travel will come roaring back due to pent up demand and airlines will struggle to add international capacity back fast enough. I know I plan to travel extensively as soon as I can get an effective vaccine. I just wish my company allowed vacation carryover so I could move a week or 2 of vacation into 2021 from 2020.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:23 pm

Concentrate your production and administration again on one site : Seattle -Everett

- Headoffice back to Seattle from Chicago, the lines between the engineers and managers must be shortend again, with more engineers at the controls..
- reduction in aircraft parts flying over continental USA.
- Seen the quality issues at Charleston, the choice seems not too difficult, to concentrate 787 production again at Everett
- After assembly of the 747 has ended in 2022, there is plenty of room in Everett for 787-10 assembly.
Operating a twin over the ocean, you're always one engine failure from a total emergency.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:39 pm

747classic wrote:
Concentrate your production and administration again on one site : Seattle -Everett

- Headoffice back to Seattle from Chicago, the lines between the engineers and managers must be shortend again, with more engineers at the controls..
- reduction in aircraft parts flying over continental USA.
- Seen the quality issues at Charleston, the choice seems not too difficult, to concentrate 787 production again at Everett
- After assembly of the 747 has ended in 2022, there is plenty of room in Everett for 787-10 assembly.

Exactly my thinking. Boeing should move the 787 program to Everett completely. The quality control issues coming out of SC are just too much.

At that point the main two lines coming out of Everett would be the 787 and the 777X
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:42 pm

Opus99 wrote:
...
Exactly my thinking. Boeing should move the 787 program to Everett completely. The quality control issues coming out of SC are just too much.

At that point the main two lines coming out of Everett would be the 787 and the 777X


Depends on which state writes the biggest check to Boeing, Is it going to be WA or SC? The decision will have nothing to do with quality.
All posts are just opinions.
 
Breathe
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:50 pm

Well, it had to happen some time, but the end of production of the 747 will help Boeing move forward as a company and move resources to other programmes.

Still, this is a watershed moment for the ending of production of such an iconic plane.It has done so much for the aviation industry, both in terms of passenger travel as well as cargo transportation. Its an aircraft that helped open travel to the masses and take them further than they could possibly ever imaged that they could afford in their lifetimes.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:50 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
...
Exactly my thinking. Boeing should move the 787 program to Everett completely. The quality control issues coming out of SC are just too much.

At that point the main two lines coming out of Everett would be the 787 and the 777X


Depends on which state writes the biggest check to Boeing, Is it going to be WA or SC? The decision will have nothing to do with quality.

Well that’s sad
 
Breathe
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:51 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
...
Exactly my thinking. Boeing should move the 787 program to Everett completely. The quality control issues coming out of SC are just too much.

At that point the main two lines coming out of Everett would be the 787 and the 777X


Depends on which state writes the biggest check to Boeing, Is it going to be WA or SC? The decision will have nothing to do with quality.

Yup, it will all come down to cold hard cash.
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:58 pm

Relayer wrote:
What if, for example, Boeing had spent money on making the 747 a twin instead of going the way they did? Maybe it would have had to be smaller than the 744 if need be?


Assuming all went well, Boeing would still be maintaining two programs, 747 and 777. By growing the 777 to include your suggested smaller 747 (and indeed, to include the 777-400), Boeing can offer a 747 sized aircraft with relatively few orders since much is the ongoing program costs can be spread across the entire 777 line.
 
Breathe
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:58 pm

747classic wrote:
Concentrate your production and administration again on one site : Seattle -Everett

- Headoffice back to Seattle from Chicago, the lines between the engineers and managers must be shortend again, with more engineers at the controls..
- reduction in aircraft parts flying over continental USA.
- Seen the quality issues at Charleston, the choice seems not too difficult, to concentrate 787 production again at Everett
- After assembly of the 747 has ended in 2022, there is plenty of room in Everett for 787-10 assembly.

Sounds good in theory, but moving the HQ back to Seattle is probably not going to happen. The local politicians in Seattle were pretty much the reason why Amazon decided to look elsewhere for their HQ2. Without getting bogged down in politics, its more "tax efficient" shall we say, for Boeing HQ to remain located in Chicago.

There might be quality issues in Charleston, but these can be ironed out if the will from the company is there to sort things out. If anything, it might be more tempting to move more production to South Carolina. For a start, Boeing corporate won't have any "headaches" with having to deal with the unions like they do in Washington.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:59 pm

Breathe wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
...
Exactly my thinking. Boeing should move the 787 program to Everett completely. The quality control issues coming out of SC are just too much.

At that point the main two lines coming out of Everett would be the 787 and the 777X


Depends on which state writes the biggest check to Boeing, Is it going to be WA or SC? The decision will have nothing to do with quality.

Yup, it will all come down to cold hard cash.

As I understand it (I may be wrong) but one of the reasons for the poor quality at SC is “lack of engineering expertise”. I’m not sure why or how. But I’m assuming if the work is consolidated into SC, Seattle based 787 engineers would have to move to SC
 
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Polot
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:02 pm

747classic wrote:
Concentrate your production and administration again on one site : Seattle -Everett

- Headoffice back to Seattle from Chicago, the lines between the engineers and managers must be shortend again, with more engineers at the controls..
- reduction in aircraft parts flying over continental USA.
- Seen the quality issues at Charleston, the choice seems not too difficult, to concentrate 787 production again at Everett
- After assembly of the 747 has ended in 2022, there is plenty of room in Everett for 787-10 assembly.

AFAIK the problem with 787-10 assembly at Everett is not space at the facility, it’s that some of the fuselage pieces are too long for the Dreamlifter.

Moving fuselage production is not a simple task.
 
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smittythepirate
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:06 pm

Opus99 wrote:
747classic wrote:
Concentrate your production and administration again on one site : Seattle -Everett

- Headoffice back to Seattle from Chicago, the lines between the engineers and managers must be shortend again, with more engineers at the controls..
- reduction in aircraft parts flying over continental USA.
- Seen the quality issues at Charleston, the choice seems not too difficult, to concentrate 787 production again at Everett
- After assembly of the 747 has ended in 2022, there is plenty of room in Everett for 787-10 assembly.

Exactly my thinking. Boeing should move the 787 program to Everett completely. The quality control issues coming out of SC are just too much.

At that point the main two lines coming out of Everett would be the 787 and the 777X


Let's not pretend there isn't a quality issue in the Seattle region as well with 737 and the 767 tanker.
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Opus99
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:12 pm

smittythepirate wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
747classic wrote:
Concentrate your production and administration again on one site : Seattle -Everett

- Headoffice back to Seattle from Chicago, the lines between the engineers and managers must be shortend again, with more engineers at the controls..
- reduction in aircraft parts flying over continental USA.
- Seen the quality issues at Charleston, the choice seems not too difficult, to concentrate 787 production again at Everett
- After assembly of the 747 has ended in 2022, there is plenty of room in Everett for 787-10 assembly.

Exactly my thinking. Boeing should move the 787 program to Everett completely. The quality control issues coming out of SC are just too much.

At that point the main two lines coming out of Everett would be the 787 and the 777X


Let's not pretend there isn't a quality issue in the Seattle region as well with 737 and the 767 tanker.

That’s a good point. I think the SC issue of quality control just seems to take on more headline news than quality control issues out of Everett. Though like you’ve pointed out they both have it
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:17 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Breathe wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

Depends on which state writes the biggest check to Boeing, Is it going to be WA or SC? The decision will have nothing to do with quality.

Yup, it will all come down to cold hard cash.

As I understand it (I may be wrong) but one of the reasons for the poor quality at SC is “lack of engineering expertise”. I’m not sure why or how. But I’m assuming if the work is consolidated into SC, Seattle based 787 engineers would have to move to SC


You cannot magically induce quality at FAL. It has to start at supplier first. The assembly line philosophy is based on using "slightly" skilled workforce doing simple monotonous tasks following oversimplified instructions written by "experts". These experts can sit in Seattle or Chicago, doesn't matter.

I know SC workers get a lot of flak union induced flak for quality, but they are not responsible for many 787 issues. Low quality suppliers are the root cause of Boeing's problems.
All posts are just opinions.
 
ILNFlyer
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:37 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
Relayer wrote:
What if, for example, Boeing had spent money on making the 747 a twin instead of going the way they did? Maybe it would have had to be smaller than the 744 if need be?


Assuming all went well, Boeing would still be maintaining two programs, 747 and 777. By growing the 777 to include your suggested smaller 747 (and indeed, to include the 777-400), Boeing can offer a 747 sized aircraft with relatively few orders since much is the ongoing program costs can be spread across the entire 777 line.


Save the 747! Hang 2 777X engines under the wings! :duck:
 
Ronaldo747
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:41 pm

Well from now on there is a big gap between the Antonovs and the 777F, later potential 777XF. What's next?
 
bennett123
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:42 pm

How many B747 are still to be delivered?.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:47 pm

bennett123 wrote:
How many B747 are still to be delivered?.


At the end of June, after deducting ASC 606 adjustments, 12 (all for UPS).
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:48 pm

Prost wrote:
Boeing will now whipsaw Washington and South Carolina for the best ‘deal’.

For the record, TFA says;

And most critically, Boeing will cut 787 Dreamliner production from 10 jets per month now to just six per month next year. Boeing had previously said it would go down to seven per month in 2022.

At that slow rate, Calhoun told employees, Boeing will now study “the feasibility of consolidating production in one location.” That one location can only be South Carolina.

The 787 is built on separate assembly lines in Everett and in North Charleston, S.C. However, the largest model, the 787-10, can only be built in the South Carolina plant, because its fuselage section is too large to fit into the Dreamlifter cargo transport plane that ferries parts to Everett.

I'm not sure why this thread is so focused on tax breaks that are so insignificant in the big picture that Boeing just gave them up by supporting WA state legislation to do just that.

The lede should be that production of Boeing's pretty much only cash cow is being cut back by 40%.

Even the 767 freighter is being cut, by 33%, and of course, the 747F is done in 2022.

Not much left to bring in money, no?

Strato2 wrote:
777X will never make a dime for Boeing with this decision.

As if there is some better decision to be made...

In total, Boeing's cuts are a strong indication that world air travel and in turn the world's economy is in worse shape than many admit.

It's pretty obvious that Team A is going to have to make some big adjustments as well.

It's not a time for rejoicing, IMO.

747classic wrote:
Concentrate your production and administration again on one site : Seattle -Everett

- Headoffice back to Seattle from Chicago, the lines between the engineers and managers must be shortend again, with more engineers at the controls..
- reduction in aircraft parts flying over continental USA.
- Seen the quality issues at Charleston, the choice seems not too difficult, to concentrate 787 production again at Everett
- After assembly of the 747 has ended in 2022, there is plenty of room in Everett for 787-10 assembly.

We should not forget that CHS exists to put pressure on the SEA area unions.

There's no way Boeing management is going to give up on that leverage.

And as mentioned above, less parts fly across the US if all production is in CHS rather than PAE.

Moving production to CHS reduces labor cost and reduces transportation costs.

You can be confident that if 787 production is consolidated in one site, that site will be CHS and not PAE.

There have been whispers over the years that Boeing would consolidate everything at CHS if production dropped below a certain level.

Well, now, production has dropped pretty dramatically.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
TexStones
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:00 pm

Gut feel: Boeing is clearing space within the Everett facility in order the prepare for the Next Big Thing.

Wayne Gretzky famously said "skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been."
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:07 pm

Polot wrote:
747classic wrote:
Concentrate your production and administration again on one site : Seattle -Everett

- Headoffice back to Seattle from Chicago, the lines between the engineers and managers must be shortend again, with more engineers at the controls..
- reduction in aircraft parts flying over continental USA.
- Seen the quality issues at Charleston, the choice seems not too difficult, to concentrate 787 production again at Everett
- After assembly of the 747 has ended in 2022, there is plenty of room in Everett for 787-10 assembly.

AFAIK the problem with 787-10 assembly at Everett is not space at the facility, it’s that some of the fuselage pieces are too long for the Dreamlifter.

Moving fuselage production is not a simple task.

Not to mention the whole point of the exercise is to deal with this unprecedented crisis in the airliner business, not to address perceived problems in communications and/or quality. Why spend the money to move equipment from CHS to PAE or buy new equipment for PAE if the labor is cheaper in CHS?
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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alancostello
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:23 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
It's not right or wrong, its acknowledging uncertainty. Anyone who wants to build a solid business plan based on global vaccination by Q2 2021 should probably ask themselves where the vaccine for HIV is.

It's much safer to make a business plan with too little capacity then it is to make one with too much.


As an epidemiologist this is a gross misunderstanding of both HIV and COVID-19, as well as how vaccines work. There are somewhere near 40 vaccines in different phased trials for COVID right now, four of which will be completed by the end of the year (in one case by September). With even a rudimentary efficacy (60% or above) they will go in to full production with tens of millions and potentially billions of doses ready by the end of the year and reduce the numbers of cases substantially worldwide. I'm not guaranteeing they will work or it'll all go away, but it is not outside the realm of possibility to say (and plan for) that a sense of normalcy will resume by Q2 2021.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:30 pm

TexStones wrote:
Gut feel: Boeing is clearing space within the Everett facility in order the prepare for the Next Big Thing.

Wayne Gretzky famously said "skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been."

With what money?

  • Boeing just lost $2.4B in one quarter!
  • 737 was at rate 43 heading for 50 before MCAS, now they're hoping to be at rate 31 in early 2022
  • 737 still has costs with performing ADs on stored aircraft, remaining RTS efforts, MAX-7 EIS, MAX-10 EIS
  • 747 was losing money but now it'll still lose money and then bear the cost of shutting down the line
  • 767 was at 3/month, being cut to 2/month
  • 777 rate sinks to 2/month while still bearing costs of 777X development
  • 787 was at 12/month a year or two ago, now targeting 6/month

Hard to understand what's gonna keep the enterprise going. Hard to suggest that 6/month of 787 does it, no? Surely the 787 customers will want concessions to cope with the new market reality.

Overall the news suggests 2020 and 2021 are going to be deep in the red, and maybe 2022 they'll begin to crawl out of the hole but there's major risks that won't happen.

Keep in mind the only reason they are still afloat is they borrowed $billions at market rates. The lodestone is truly around their necks.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
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747classic
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:35 pm

Revelation wrote:
Polot wrote:
747classic wrote:
Concentrate your production and administration again on one site : Seattle -Everett

- Headoffice back to Seattle from Chicago, the lines between the engineers and managers must be shortend again, with more engineers at the controls..
- reduction in aircraft parts flying over continental USA.
- Seen the quality issues at Charleston, the choice seems not too difficult, to concentrate 787 production again at Everett
- After assembly of the 747 has ended in 2022, there is plenty of room in Everett for 787-10 assembly.

AFAIK the problem with 787-10 assembly at Everett is not space at the facility, it’s that some of the fuselage pieces are too long for the Dreamlifter.

Moving fuselage production is not a simple task.

Not to mention the whole point of the exercise is to deal with this unprecedented crisis in the airliner business, not to address perceived problems in communications and/or quality. Why spend the money to move equipment from CHS to PAE or buy new equipment for PAE if the labor is cheaper in CHS?


IMHO, you could land as a member of the Boeing leadership in Chicago : take the cheapest engineers and cheapest assembly crews to produce the "best" airplanes ("best"only for the investors) in the rat race to the bottom price and don't adress perceived problems in communications and quality.

This covid crises MUST be used to counter the "sick" relationship between the leadership and the production workforce, not to bypass the unions.

But i'm afraid that the result of this whole excercise will be :

- most managers keep their positions
- short term thinking.
- a lot of older (more expensive) engineers and assembly line workers will be sacked.
- a further drain of engineering knowledge
- after production will ramp up after covid, this matured workforce will be dearly missed.
Operating a twin over the ocean, you're always one engine failure from a total emergency.
 
ltbewr
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:39 pm

Prost wrote:
Boeing will now whipsaw Washington and South Carolina for the best ‘deal’.

Yep, More corporate extortion of taxpayers and workers. I do hope 787 goes back to WA,
These plans make sense from now, production will be reduced due to sharply cut demand, the need to fix the 737MAX, maybe give time to make fixes and assure proper work done and for into next year in limits of contacts of employees.
 
TexStones
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:42 pm

Revelation wrote:
With what money?


Boeing will always have access to the capital markets. They are arguably the most important enterprise in the US, and certainly the largest exporter in the country. They will not be allowed to fail.

Again, "skate to where the puck is going to be." Our current pandemic will see some sort of resolution in the next year, and a new normal will take hold after that.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:48 pm

And in 2023-2024 they will start to reverse this multi billion dollar process to stay competitive and fill the market demand.

Meanwhile production lines have been closed and workers have been laid off and found new jobs somewhere else.

But what's the alternative.
 
9Patch
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:49 pm

Here is a article by Dominic Gates of the Seattle Times published in the Anchorage Daily News:

At that slow rate, Calhoun told employees, Boeing will now study “the feasibility of consolidating production in one location.” That one location can only be South Carolina.

The 787 is built on separate assembly lines in Everett and in North Charleston, S.C. However, the largest model, the 787-10, can only be built in the South Carolina plant, because its fuselage section is too large to fit into the Dreamlifter cargo transport plane that ferries parts to Everett.

So if there is to be just one site for 787 production, Everett will lose out.


Calhoun also said Boeing will finally end production of its most famous jet, the 747 jumbo, in 2022. In the past month, the pandemic has forced airlines around the world to retire that aircraft early.


https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2020/0 ... s-further/
Last edited by 9Patch on Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
randomdude83
Posts: 52
Joined: Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:52 pm

Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:50 pm

Revelation wrote:
TexStones wrote:
Gut feel: Boeing is clearing space within the Everett facility in order the prepare for the Next Big Thing.

Wayne Gretzky famously said "skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been."

With what money?

  • Boeing just lost $2.4B in one quarter!
  • 737 was at rate 43 heading for 50 before MCAS, now they're hoping to be at rate 31 in early 2022
  • 737 still has costs with performing ADs on stored aircraft, remaining RTS efforts, MAX-7 EIS, MAX-10 EIS
  • 747 was losing money but now it'll still lose money and then bear the cost of shutting down the line
  • 767 was at 3/month, being cut to 2/month
  • 777 rate sinks to 2/month while still bearing costs of 777X development
  • 787 was at 12/month a year or two ago, now targeting 6/month

Hard to understand what's gonna keep the enterprise going. Hard to suggest that 6/month of 787 does it, no? Surely the 787 customers will want concessions to cope with the new market reality.

Overall the news suggests 2020 and 2021 are going to be deep in the red, and maybe 2022 they'll begin to crawl out of the hole but there's major risks that won't happen.

Keep in mind the only reason they are still afloat is they borrowed $billions at market rates. The lodestone is truly around their necks.


You forgot the undelivered 500+ Maxes...that has to count. meaning if they do start delivery on those. thats money coming in.
 
marcelh
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:52 pm

Ronaldo747 wrote:
Well from now on there is a big gap between the Antonovs and the 777F, later potential 777XF. What's next?


It looks the gap is filled sufficiently by the produced 748F. Boeing would have built the 748F for years if the market wanted it. The market has said “we don’t need more”, so it will end.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7146
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:03 pm

Jetport wrote:
None of this news from Boeing is at all surprising. We will hear similar news from Airbus soon.

On to the side subject of wide body demand and international travel. ANet is extremely pessimistic on international travel recovery, irrationally so in my opinion.


I don't think pessimism on the international travel demand is the issue here.
The Widebody market was already saturated well before Covid19 appeared, and was already only going to go one way. There is no amount of recovery in the current climate that will take that issue away.

Widebody output doubled between 2010 and 2015, from an average of less than 190 in 2005-2010 to 400+ from 2015 onwards.
Over 50% of the 5,000 widebodys produced in the last 20 years were produced in the last 6 years. In other words more than half of the worlds widebody fleet is less than 6 years old.
I predict that narrowbody deliveries will recover way more quickly than widebody deliveries do.

Rgds

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