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Revelation
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:10 pm

Too late to edit earlier posts, but it does seem my info about the 767 was wrong. My source was the ST story by Dominic Gates ( https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... -carolina/ ). It now says "July 29, 2020 at 6:55 am | Updated July 29, 2020 at 8:46 am" and any mention of 767 is gone so I presume the update removed the earlier statement that 767 rate was going to be cut from 3/month to 2/month.

I'm not sure it changes the big picture much if at all, though.
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:16 pm

Revelation wrote:
TexStones wrote:
Gut feel: Boeing is clearing space within the Everett facility in order the prepare for the Next Big Thing.

Wayne Gretzky famously said "skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been."

With what money?

  • Boeing just lost $2.4B in one quarter!
  • 737 was at rate 43 heading for 50 before MCAS, now they're hoping to be at rate 31 in early 2022
  • 737 still has costs with performing ADs on stored aircraft, remaining RTS efforts, MAX-7 EIS, MAX-10 EIS
  • 747 was losing money but now it'll still lose money and then bear the cost of shutting down the line
  • 767 was at 3/month, being cut to 2/month
  • 777 rate sinks to 2/month while still bearing costs of 777X development
  • 787 was at 12/month a year or two ago, now targeting 6/month

Hard to understand what's gonna keep the enterprise going. Hard to suggest that 6/month of 787 does it, no? Surely the 787 customers will want concessions to cope with the new market reality.

Overall the news suggests 2020 and 2021 are going to be deep in the red, and maybe 2022 they'll begin to crawl out of the hole but there's major risks that won't happen.

Keep in mind the only reason they are still afloat is they borrowed $billions at market rates. The lodestone is truly around their necks.


I believe you are incorrect about the 767 rate reduction, I have not seen that published anywhere.

I also think you are totally wrong about the outlook for the commercial aircraft industry. A year from now air travel will likely be booming again and orders and deliveries will be increasing. Oil could also be getting somewhat expensive again a year from now due to very low capital expenditures by oil companies since the COVID crisis started.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:27 pm

Opinion only. If it's THAT bad, it's not a bad idea to prepare a "Project Ark". GoodCo and BadCo. Pool all good stuff into GoodCo, all the rest into BadCo, let them run in parallel for at least 6 months (to make sure bankruptcy court cannot reverse decisions as "fraudulent transactions") -- there's enough liquidity to stay afloat that long. GoodCo has most of the cash and unencumbered assets, files Ch.11 citing bad business conditions. Stays under Ch.11 for as long as necessary, emerges, cherry-picks whatever is interesting inside BadCo for pennies on the dollar. BadCo braves the odds, eventually succumbs to cruel reality, but not earlier then GoodCo is back on its feet, strong and liquid, to actually pick up assets and people.
AN4 A40 L4T TU3 TU5 IL6 ILW I93 F50 F70 100 146 ARJ AT7 DH4 L10 CRJ ERJ E90 E95 DC-9 MD-8X YK4 YK2 SF3 S20 319 320 321 332 333 343 346 722 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 744 74M 757 767 777
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:43 pm

744SPX wrote:
If the 777-9 is proving to be more airplane than people want or need, maybe that bodes well for the 777-8, not just as a freighter but as a pax aircraft as it will still be at least as efficient as anything in its size category, even if not being used on ULR flights.



Except the A35K weighs less and is more efficient for the same capacity. It also costs less most likely and is available right now. So the 778 is very badly compromised against its direct competition.


randomdude83 wrote:
I'm surprised at the doom and gloom comments about the 777X.

Its going to be Fine. it'll make its money. The delay is not caused by faults with the 777X program, just the Covid situation. so no major redesign spending going on here really. just a 2 year hold? it can not be that costly really.

Might i remind you all, Boeing had the 787 delays for what? 5 years and it got past that.

it'll get past the 737 max soon. and basically they have 2 years to perfect the 777x and make it ready to replace all these 77W/A380s, 747s that will need replacement within the next 10 years once the market picks up again in a year or two.

And when the time comes for replacement. Boeing should have 787/777x and the NSA ready/proven to roll.

Also one more reminder, back then when the 77W was just rolling, 911 happened and no one was buying...and now look at where it is, just study that on its own. thats where boeing needs to be.



It was supposed to be in service this year. Covid is not the sole cause of the delay in EIS of the 777X, it was already delayed before Covid-19.
 
uta999
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:10 pm

Split Boeing into two, WB and NB. Good company vs bad company. If the MAX does go south, declare Chapter 11 on the NB side only

Then it either gets ‘saved’ or it fails and the debt is written off. Boeing WB survives as a much leaner profitable company which can develop a 787 based 767 sized new model.

It’s happened before at both Lockheed and MCD. Both failed and disappeared from commercial aviation. The sky didn’t fall in.
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:13 pm

747classic wrote:
IMHO, you could land as a member of the Boeing leadership in Chicago : take the cheapest engineers and cheapest assembly crews to produce the "best" airplanes ("best"only for the investors) in the rat race to the bottom price and don't adress perceived problems in communications and quality.

This covid crises MUST be used to counter the "sick" relationship between the leadership and the production workforce, not to bypass the unions.

But i'm afraid that the result of this whole excercise will be :

- most managers keep their positions
- short term thinking.
- a lot of older (more expensive) engineers and assembly line workers will be sacked.
- a further drain of engineering knowledge
- after production will ramp up after covid, this matured workforce will be dearly missed.

IMO you should avoid such personalization, it is something frowned upon here and elsewhere. It's just not helpful. I've never been a manager at Boeing or anywhere else for that matter, and have had no input on any decision Boeing has made. I've never even worked for Boeing or a contractor of Boeing.

I'm pessimistic in a lot of the same ways you are but I'm just not seeing how to get the genie back into the bottle or the toothpaste back into the tube. The Wall Street mentality is a real thing here in the US. I'm not sure how you attract and keep talent if other companies offer good salaries with stock grants and options that are likely to have significant appreciation. I'm sure senior level talent at Boeing and elsewhere takes more money than it deserves, but without reform at a national level that isn't going to change, and of course such reform isn't likely to happen any time soon.

I'm not sure why moving corporate headquarters to SEA would change things. CHI is corporate level people who have to deal with the different branches of the company (defense, space, airliners, etc) and the different sites within the company (SEA, SoCal, STL, etc). All the BCA program level people still are in SEA from what I am told.

I'm not sure how one can expect to have development and engineering co-located. Sure, in an ideal world, that'd be true, but now engineering is not just in SEA, it's also in STL, SoCal, and various other US and international sites. Should they cut off access to that talent because much of it won't move to SEA?

I'm pretty sure Boeing is going to have to make geographic dispersion work. I've driven BMWs made in South Africa, South Carolina (yes, that bad old non union state) and you can't tell the difference from the ones made in dear old Munich without looking for the manufacturing plate.

I'm not sure union relationships were ever that great. Surely there have been strikes over the years. I am pro-union but can see lots of cases where unions are needlessly obstructionist.

I'm not sure the quality issues are as bad as the perception. Surely there are issues but there always were issues. I recall early GE90 problems on 777 that were probably on the same level as the T1000 and GTF problems we now know of. RB211 on L1011 was so bad it caused a few years slip to the program and drove RR into bankruptcy. 737 manufacturing was so screwed up in the late 90s that they had to shut down for quite a while and reboot everything from scratch. The big difference is how social media spreads bad news so quickly, and now people are so quick to react to a few words on social media without bothering taking in the whole story, IMO.

Jetport wrote:
I believe you are incorrect about the 767 rate reduction, I have not seen that published anywhere.

Yes, see above.

Jetport wrote:
I also think you are totally wrong about the outlook for the commercial aircraft industry. A year from now air travel will likely be booming again and orders and deliveries will be increasing. Oil could also be getting somewhat expensive again a year from now due to very low capital expenditures by oil companies since the COVID crisis started.

Time will tell. So far people have been underestimating/downplaying the impact of COVID. People want to return to normal, but the virus doesn't care what people want. Clearly this news from Boeing suggests they're quite pessimistic. Remember lots of the things they need are long lead time items. You don't just flip a switch and ramp back up.

randomdude83 wrote:
You forgot the undelivered 500+ Maxes...that has to count. meaning if they do start delivery on those. thats money coming in.

You forget they are already living on borrowed money and delivering each one of those is going to cost money to take out of storage, apply ADs, have FAA do their inspections, etc. Also don't forget some of the customers for those 500 are now defunct or in bankruptcy, and others surely are seeking deferrals.
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:12 pm

Revelation wrote:
TexStones wrote:
Gut feel: Boeing is clearing space within the Everett facility in order the prepare for the Next Big Thing.

Wayne Gretzky famously said "skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been."

With what money?

  • Boeing just lost $2.4B in one quarter!
  • 737 was at rate 43 heading for 50 before MCAS, now they're hoping to be at rate 31 in early 2022
  • 737 still has costs with performing ADs on stored aircraft, remaining RTS efforts, MAX-7 EIS, MAX-10 EIS
  • 747 was losing money but now it'll still lose money and then bear the cost of shutting down the line
  • 767 was at 3/month, being cut to 2/month
  • 777 rate sinks to 2/month while still bearing costs of 777X development
  • 787 was at 12/month a year or two ago, now targeting 6/month

Hard to understand what's gonna keep the enterprise going. Hard to suggest that 6/month of 787 does it, no? Surely the 787 customers will want concessions to cope with the new market reality.

Overall the news suggests 2020 and 2021 are going to be deep in the red, and maybe 2022 they'll begin to crawl out of the hole but there's major risks that won't happen.

Keep in mind the only reason they are still afloat is they borrowed $billions at market rates. The lodestone is truly around their necks.

These low production rates are going to kill vendors, in particular when the competitor also cuts to reality. Airlines are not going to see even a narrowbody recovery of note soon. 2023 or 2024 for the ramp back up in production.

We went from a planned rate for the 787 of 168 per year down to 72 per year is staggering. If Boeing consolidates to one site, that means planning on a maximum rate of 100/year in the future.

Thanks,
Neil
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:16 pm

Jetport wrote:
A year from now air travel will likely be booming again and orders and deliveries will be increasing.


I wouldn't think so. Boeing, and Airbus too, believe recovery will take many years. Boeing also explained that production rates run behind demand due to long lead times. So when air travel starts booming again, it will take another 12-24 months before production levels can be increased.
Good moaning!
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:42 pm

Stuff I posted to the 737 news thread seems relevant:

Revelation wrote:
Boeing pushes to Q4 its expectation for resuming 737 Max deliveries

https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 36.article

Boeing aims to deliver 450 stored 737 Max within one year

https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 38.article

Note I was able to read the first article with no registration, whereas the 2nd needed a free e-mail registration.

So it seems Boeing does see the 737s as "money in the bank" and will push to have most of them delivered in a year after EIS (which keeps slipping).

The second article says:

Chief financial officer Greg Smith adds that Boeing expects to deliver “the majority” of its inventory of stored 737 Max within a year of when resuming deliveries.

However, he says some of those deliveries will stretch beyond one year.

He confirms the inventory stands at “approximately” 450 jets. Boeing accumulated those aircraft because it continued manufacturing the Max through most of 2019 despite being unable to deliver the jets due to the grounding.

So whomever wrote the title may be a bit overly aggressive since "the majority" can refer to anywhere between 226 and 450.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:47 pm

It seems like widebodies are being downsized. 747 to 777 and 777 to 787.
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:52 pm

Revelation wrote:
TexStones wrote:
Gut feel: Boeing is clearing space within the Everett facility in order the prepare for the Next Big Thing.

Wayne Gretzky famously said "skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been."

With what money?

  • Boeing just lost $2.4B in one quarter!
  • 737 was at rate 43 heading for 50 before MCAS, now they're hoping to be at rate 31 in early 2022
  • 737 still has costs with performing ADs on stored aircraft, remaining RTS efforts, MAX-7 EIS, MAX-10 EIS
  • 747 was losing money but now it'll still lose money and then bear the cost of shutting down the line
  • 767 was at 3/month, being cut to 2/month
  • 777 rate sinks to 2/month while still bearing costs of 777X development
  • 787 was at 12/month a year or two ago, now targeting 6/month

Hard to understand what's gonna keep the enterprise going. Hard to suggest that 6/month of 787 does it, no? Surely the 787 customers will want concessions to cope with the new market reality.

Overall the news suggests 2020 and 2021 are going to be deep in the red, and maybe 2022 they'll begin to crawl out of the hole but there's major risks that won't happen.

Keep in mind the only reason they are still afloat is they borrowed $billions at market rates. The lodestone is truly around their necks.

Yes. With what money?

For the last 6 months, which airline and lessor has 100% completed milestone payments? To the end of 2022, how many airlines and lessors will 100% complete milestone payments?

By the end of 2022, Boeing is on track to be the largest ultimate owner of completed 787's in the World, some stored, some technically delivered. Airbus will be in the same world of pain. Commercial aircraft production is a job creation scheme.

Volume economies of scale placed the 787 on a 'cost to build' pedestal, a position maintained while production levels were stable or increasing. When volumes fall, unit costs increase exponentially. At 6 units per month, 787 cost of production (and losses too) are likely higher than combined A330/350 production at the same volume.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:34 pm

In response to smartplane's comment above.
Also take note by the end of 2022, Boeing is on track to be the largest ultimate owner of completed 737MAX aircraft in the World. Some stored, some technically delivered.
Boeing may find themselves in bankruptcy chapter 11 thus leaving Airbus as possibly the better survivor. The US Federal Government may need to bail out Boeing Commercial Aviation division to
prevent that and help keep Boeing's Military Division afloat. Also Airbus cannot be the only major civilian aircraft manufacture left. :old:
Procrastination Is The Theft Of Time.......
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:36 pm

Revelation wrote:
So it seems Boeing does see the 737s as "money in the bank" and will push to have most of them delivered in a year after EIS (which keeps slipping).


Even if Boeing is able to modify and certify all those undelivered MAX in a year from RTS, it’s far from clear that their customers will be in a position to accept them.
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:12 pm

Leeham ( https://leehamnews.com/2020/07/29/boein ... -covid-19/ ) gives us some interesting info:

To understand the actual company result for the quarter we must look at Operating Cash Flow. It has gone from +$4.7bn in 2Q2018 to -$5.3bn in 2Q2020.
...
Boeing expects the cash flow to improve to a black zero end 2021, as it can deliver “a majority” of the 450 ramped 737 MAX during 2021. Boeing expects the production rate of 737 MAX, presently at a very low rate, to reach 31/month by end 2022. The rate will be kept low during 2021 to not build more inventory as ramp 737s are delivered.

Pretty much supports what I felt above, that 2020 and 2021 are total write offs, and he says MAX won't even be back to 31/month by end 2022 so that will be a weak year too.

No matter how you look at it, there are many challenges ahead for Boeing.
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:16 pm

Revelation wrote:
With what money?.

Boeing still has a pretty good defense business and some other lines than commercial. They can always sell stock and reverse the stupid buybacks
which urinated away many billions at a high stock price. I always used to tease our friend mjoelnir about shorting Boeing stock, albeit for a
different reason. I haven't seen him post here for a while: Hopefully he took me seriously and is chilling on a beach with John Leahy.

If the 787 sites go from 2 to 1, I would bet cash money that line is at CHS.
I would not be surprised if there was a large exodus of talent from WA to SC if they are given the chance.
 
ORDfan
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:26 pm

744SPX wrote:
If the 777-9 is proving to be more airplane than people want or need, maybe that bodes well for the 777-8, not just as a freighter but as a pax aircraft as it will still be at least as efficient as anything in its size category, even if not being used on ULR flights.


I was thinking the same thing actually. In a world with too much capacity, is the smaller of the two VLA more likely to be long-term viable?

Ziyulu wrote:
It seems like widebodies are being downsized. 747 to 777 and 777 to 787.


Seems to be the case. While I will truly miss the 747, I do long for the days of 2x3x2 or 2x4x2 in Y. If we can get back to a world where that is the norm, I would be quite happy. I'm hoping the NMA or MOM (whatever its being call now) helps to get us back there.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:30 pm

Bricktop wrote:
Revelation wrote:
With what money?.

Boeing still has a pretty good defense business and some other lines than commercial. They can always sell stock and reverse the stupid buybacks
which urinated away many billions at a high stock price.

Right, but my quote from Leeham says the corporation is going to have negative cash flow for all of 2020 and 2021 and their biggest cash cow is only going to be somewhat back to health by end 2022.

They say they're going to keep production low in 2021 to avoid building inventory, but of course that's because customers have little need for their product over that time frame.

I also think CHS will end up with all 787 production. I think that's what was going to happen all along once demand dipped. Unfortunately for Boeing, CV19 made that dip happen pretty darn early.

IIRC Leeham said CHS alone can only do 100/year so if Boeing closes PAE it is admitting that 787 production likely won't ever get past 8.3/month again.

Kinda sad since they were set up to do 14/month for a while there.

As was pointed out earlier, that means the 787 'volume discounts' are now pretty much unreachable.
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:04 am

Revelation wrote:
Stuff I posted to the 737 news thread seems relevant:

Revelation wrote:
Boeing pushes to Q4 its expectation for resuming 737 Max deliveries

https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 36.article

Boeing aims to deliver 450 stored 737 Max within one year

https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 38.article

Note I was able to read the first article with no registration, whereas the 2nd needed a free e-mail registration.

So it seems Boeing does see the 737s as "money in the bank" and will push to have most of them delivered in a year after EIS (which keeps slipping).

The second article says:

Chief financial officer Greg Smith adds that Boeing expects to deliver “the majority” of its inventory of stored 737 Max within a year of when resuming deliveries.

However, he says some of those deliveries will stretch beyond one year.

He confirms the inventory stands at “approximately” 450 jets. Boeing accumulated those aircraft because it continued manufacturing the Max through most of 2019 despite being unable to deliver the jets due to the grounding.

So whomever wrote the title may be a bit overly aggressive since "the majority" can refer to anywhere between 226 and 450.



Bad timing has bankrupted many companies before and Boeing is really looking at events that just seem like it is intended to pile on the hurt. Before Covid-19 they were burning through cash on the MAX and there was a slowdown of widebody orders for both OEMs as well. Add in a sprinkling of Covid-19 and if the company isn't careful this could be very very bad for it. I cannot see how they are able to look at anything like the profits they have had the past decade in the next decade at least with the slowdown of everything. They will need to cut suppliers slack otherwise they will go out of business, which is bad for their business. They will need to cut airlines slack because if they don't they will be out of business, which is bad for their business. But they cannot cut suppliers or airlines slack as they are dealing with the MAX crises and a slowdown of deliveries with the 787 and delays to the 777X will hurt as well. Welcome to a rock and extremely hard place.

If you look at any future investments as well it is hard to see where, as you posted, Boeing will get the money from. Yes they can borrow more, but that money will need to be paid back sometime and what segment will offer them the profits to pay back the development cost of the program and the losses they will have everywhere else? It will not be the NMA as airlines will not have the money to invest in a new frame that will have a marginal business case.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:12 am

So who will take delivery of the very last 747 off the production line ?
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:14 am

Max Q wrote:
So who will take delivery of the very last 747 off the production line ?


UPS.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:19 am

Da*mit. I was so hoping that the reported interest from the cargo operators would result in a few more 748 orders. I've never flown on the Queen, and I now most certainly never will. I'm crying inside.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:37 am

enzo011 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Stuff I posted to the 737 news thread seems relevant:

Revelation wrote:
Boeing pushes to Q4 its expectation for resuming 737 Max deliveries

https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 36.article

Boeing aims to deliver 450 stored 737 Max within one year

https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 38.article

Note I was able to read the first article with no registration, whereas the 2nd needed a free e-mail registration.

So it seems Boeing does see the 737s as "money in the bank" and will push to have most of them delivered in a year after EIS (which keeps slipping).

The second article says:

Chief financial officer Greg Smith adds that Boeing expects to deliver “the majority” of its inventory of stored 737 Max within a year of when resuming deliveries.

However, he says some of those deliveries will stretch beyond one year.

He confirms the inventory stands at “approximately” 450 jets. Boeing accumulated those aircraft because it continued manufacturing the Max through most of 2019 despite being unable to deliver the jets due to the grounding.

So whomever wrote the title may be a bit overly aggressive since "the majority" can refer to anywhere between 226 and 450.



Bad timing has bankrupted many companies before and Boeing is really looking at events that just seem like it is intended to pile on the hurt. Before Covid-19 they were burning through cash on the MAX and there was a slowdown of widebody orders for both OEMs as well. Add in a sprinkling of Covid-19 and if the company isn't careful this could be very very bad for it. I cannot see how they are able to look at anything like the profits they have had the past decade in the next decade at least with the slowdown of everything. They will need to cut suppliers slack otherwise they will go out of business, which is bad for their business. They will need to cut airlines slack because if they don't they will be out of business, which is bad for their business. But they cannot cut suppliers or airlines slack as they are dealing with the MAX crises and a slowdown of deliveries with the 787 and delays to the 777X will hurt as well. Welcome to a rock and extremely hard place.

If you look at any future investments as well it is hard to see where, as you posted, Boeing will get the money from. Yes they can borrow more, but that money will need to be paid back sometime and what segment will offer them the profits to pay back the development cost of the program and the losses they will have everywhere else? It will not be the NMA as airlines will not have the money to invest in a new frame that will have a marginal business case.


They won’t go bankrupt. They’ll get a massive bailout from the good ole US taxpayers. Personally, I can’t wait to subsidize Boeing’s poor financial decisions while simultaneously paying for my own poor financial decisions, such as getting a college degree.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:07 am

smartplane wrote:
By the end of 2022, Boeing is on track to be the largest ultimate owner of completed 787's in the World, some stored, some technically delivered. Airbus will be in the same world of pain. Commercial aircraft production is a job creation scheme.

Volume economies of scale placed the 787 on a 'cost to build' pedestal, a position maintained while production levels were stable or increasing. When volumes fall, unit costs increase exponentially. At 6 units per month, 787 cost of production (and losses too) are likely higher than combined A330/350 production at the same volume.

Jon Ostrower just reported Airbus is also moving in a similar direction:

NEWS: Airbus announces further rate cut for A350 program from 6 to 5 per month. Company said as of the end of June it had 145 aircraft unable to be delivered due to COVID-19.

Ref: https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 1780905985

Looks like Airbus has released their Q2 report ( https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... sults.html ) and that's where he got it from.

It also gives us:

Free cash flow before M&A and customer financing € -12.4 billion, € -4.4 billion in Q2

So, similar to Boeing, a LOT of cash flowing out rather than in.
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:37 am

LY777 wrote:
Guys, you know, the market will end recovering and airlines will need aircraft like the 779X


Not for a long time. The trend is moving to smaller aircraft and higher frequency. This was even prior to COVID.
There will be more cancellations or conversions, before there are sales.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:49 am

Bricktop wrote:
Revelation wrote:
With what money?.

Boeing still has a pretty good defense business and some other lines than commercial. They can always sell stock and reverse the stupid buybacks
which urinated away many billions at a high stock price. I always used to tease our friend mjoelnir about shorting Boeing stock, albeit for a
different reason. I haven't seen him post here for a while: Hopefully he took me seriously and is chilling on a beach with John Leahy.

If the 787 sites go from 2 to 1, I would bet cash money that line is at CHS.
I would not be surprised if there was a large exodus of talent from WA to SC if they are given the chance.


Boeing is spending a ton on defense. Other than the super hornet and P-8, most other programs are in development. The KC-46 is costing them a lot of money.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:03 am

Aptivaboy wrote:
Da*mit. I was so hoping that the reported interest from the cargo operators would result in a few more 748 orders. I've never flown on the Queen, and I now most certainly never will. I'm crying inside.


There are still a number in service. And will be for sometime with the 747-8i. They're not being dumped like the -400. I would do it sooner rather than later though. Flights to Germany aren't too bad. Or Hong Kong. The passenger version has been out of production for a while anyway.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:40 am

Revelation wrote:
It also gives us:

Free cash flow before M&A and customer financing € -12.4 billion, € -4.4 billion in Q2

So, similar to Boeing, a LOT of cash flowing out rather than in.

Airbus has said repeatedly that they are very worried about their supply chain. Airbus is, to an extent, too big to fail but their suppliers are not.

Don't get me wrong, Airbus is in as much trouble as any other aircraft manufacturer. But I feel that their cash flow is artificially inflated due to them honoring supplier contracts rather than try to delay, renegotiate and force suppliers into bankruptcy. Boeing is probably facing these issues too, though the MAX has given them more time to adjust production numbers.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:48 am

Slug71 wrote:
LY777 wrote:
Guys, you know, the market will end recovering and airlines will need aircraft like the 779X


Not for a long time. The trend is moving to smaller aircraft and higher frequency. This was even prior to COVID.
There will be more cancellations or conversions, before there are sales.

This is sounding a lot like the A380:

"It's the aircraft of the future for high-demand routes"
"Orders will pick up once this crisis is over"
"It has the lowest CASM on the market"
"Growing passenger numbers will make this aircraft necessary in slot-limited airports"

I'm sure that the 777-9 will be delivered eventually, and that the few operators will like it. But I just don't see it replicating the 777-300ER's success. Like the A380, it will only find few airlines that can use it effectively; for the others the 787 and A350 will remain the best choice.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:14 am

mxaxai wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
LY777 wrote:
Guys, you know, the market will end recovering and airlines will need aircraft like the 779X


Not for a long time. The trend is moving to smaller aircraft and higher frequency. This was even prior to COVID.
There will be more cancellations or conversions, before there are sales.

This is sounding a lot like the A380:

"It's the aircraft of the future for high-demand routes"
"Orders will pick up once this crisis is over"
"It has the lowest CASM on the market"
"Growing passenger numbers will make this aircraft necessary in slot-limited airports"

I'm sure that the 777-9 will be delivered eventually, and that the few operators will like it. But I just don't see it replicating the 777-300ER's success. Like the A380, it will only find few airlines that can use it effectively; for the others the 787 and A350 will remain the best choice.

Of course it's going to sound like the 380. its the largest aircraft around. Doesn't necessarily mean its the same as the 380....given its about 150-200 seats smaller, can fly to all airports, has one of the best cargo capabilities on the market, advanced TWIN-engine economics, yeah then it now doesn't sound like a 380, depends on the way you want to look at it. it won't sell to numbers of the 777-300er in my opinion either but i think it will sell well. afterall it has more pre EIS orders than the 777-300ERs. lest we forget the 380 did not attract more orders after EIS because airlines realised how economics of the aircraft were actually very poor. The 779 doesn't need be full to make money it its more fuel efficient than a 300er on trip cost alone, also has more cargo capacity in the hold, so that must make it the largest cargo hold passenger aircraft right? Airlines will make a lot of money from that especially on routes that have that cargo demand. it's like the 300ers now that are not carrying any passengers but are cash-positive from their cargo alone and the 779 only improves on that. like STC said if not for the 300er he doesn't know where they'll be. of course you have aircafts like the 35K that also have fantastic cargo cabilities and economics which will simply give the 779 a run for its money which is why it won't sell to the 77Ws level. the 77w had no competitor on the whole when you combine range, economics and payload....now it does.

the 380 it needs to be full to make money, how it need to be full when you can't diversify income on the aircraft at all. no passengers the aircraft is completely useless.
 
SteinarN
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:26 am

The death knell for the 777X will be when Airbus reengines the A350 with the RR Ultrafan. RR is currently in the process of assembly of the first complete engine for start of ground testing next year. In two to three years we should se start of flight testing of the Ultrafan. Ofc Boeing will be forced to reengine the B787 within a year of Airbus announcement of reengining of the A350. Both these two aircrafts will then be considerably more efficient than the B777X. So, I would say the end of production of the B777X will most likely be before the end of this deacade. and end of ordering the B777X will be around the timeframe when Airbus anounces the reengining of the A350.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:32 am

Opus99 did not wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
This is sounding a lot like the A380

Of course it's going to sound like the 747. its the largest aircraft around. Doesn't necessarily mean its the same as the 747....given its about 50-100 seats larger, can fly to basically all airports, has one of the best passenger and cargo capabilities on the market, advanced high-bypass-ratio-engine economics, yeah then it now doesn't sound like a 747, depends on the way you want to look at it. it won't sell to numbers of the 747-400 in my opinion either but i think it will sell well. afterall it has more pre EIS orders than the 747 lest we forget the 747 did not attract more orders after the 777-200ER's EIS because airlines realised how economics of the aircraft were actually very poor. The A380 doesn't need be full to make money it its more fuel efficient than a 747-400 on trip cost alone, also has more cargo capacity in the hold, so that must make it the largest cargo hold passenger aircraft right? Airlines will make a lot of money from that especially on routes that have that cargo demand. it's like the 747 now that are not carrying any passengers but are cash-positive from their cargo alone and the A380 only improves on that. like STC said if not for the A380 he doesn't know where they'll be. of course you have aircafts like the 777-300ER that also have fantastic cargo cabilities and economics which will simply give the A380 a run for its money which is why it won't sell to the 747's level. the 747 had no competitor on the whole when you combine range, economics and payload....now it does.

the 747 it needs to be full to make money, how it need to be full when you can't diversify income on the aircraft at all. no passengers the aircraft is completely useless.

Travel back in time 10-15 years and you'll see the exact same arguments, just different names.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:15 am

SteinarN wrote:
The death knell for the 777X will be when Airbus reengines the A350 with the RR Ultrafan. RR is currently in the process of assembly of the first complete engine for start of ground testing next year. In two to three years we should se start of flight testing of the Ultrafan. Ofc Boeing will be forced to reengine the B787 within a year of Airbus announcement of reengining of the A350. Both these two aircrafts will then be considerably more efficient than the B777X. So, I would say the end of production of the B777X will most likely be before the end of this deacade. and end of ordering the B777X will be around the timeframe when Airbus anounces the reengining of the A350.

When? What does your crystal ball say? The A359 and the 787 are already more efficient than the 777X. Maybe they will spend money on the A35K re-engine too...I mean it hasn’t really sold but maybe that’s their plan who knows. The A359 sure. Seeing as the 787 launched earlier than the 359 I expect the need for a re-engine to come earlier. RR has said it sees a broad application for its ultrafan technology so on both Boeing and Airbus aircrafts. I don’t know if RR would want to give up on the 787 they might want to revive themselves on a re-engine. Anyway I don’t see a re-engine of any widebody hitting the market till early 2030. It’s obvious it’s not widebodies airlines are looking for.

With the 777X like I’ve argued before, this idea the A359 and 787 is the beginning and end of widebodies is a bit off. And I say A359 because if you’re writing off the 779 then you should be writing the A35K off too. And I don’t really think you should be writing them off at all. Some things we really can’t tell. 2 years in 35K and sales have still stalled on that and you think they will re-engine it? They should work on getting it sold. It’s a fantastic aircraft, why it doesn’t sell I have no clue. But by the time you factor in this downturn, I’ll be shocked if we see a rengine hit the market this decade
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:19 am

mxaxai wrote:
Opus99 did not wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
This is sounding a lot like the A380

Of course it's going to sound like the 747. its the largest aircraft around. Doesn't necessarily mean its the same as the 747....given its about 50-100 seats larger, can fly to basically all airports, has one of the best passenger and cargo capabilities on the market, advanced high-bypass-ratio-engine economics, yeah then it now doesn't sound like a 747, depends on the way you want to look at it. it won't sell to numbers of the 747-400 in my opinion either but i think it will sell well. afterall it has more pre EIS orders than the 747 lest we forget the 747 did not attract more orders after the 777-200ER's EIS because airlines realised how economics of the aircraft were actually very poor. The A380 doesn't need be full to make money it its more fuel efficient than a 747-400 on trip cost alone, also has more cargo capacity in the hold, so that must make it the largest cargo hold passenger aircraft right? Airlines will make a lot of money from that especially on routes that have that cargo demand. it's like the 747 now that are not carrying any passengers but are cash-positive from their cargo alone and the A380 only improves on that. like STC said if not for the A380 he doesn't know where they'll be. of course you have aircafts like the 777-300ER that also have fantastic cargo cabilities and economics which will simply give the A380 a run for its money which is why it won't sell to the 747's level. the 747 had no competitor on the whole when you combine range, economics and payload....now it does.

the 747 it needs to be full to make money, how it need to be full when you can't diversify income on the aircraft at all. no passengers the aircraft is completely useless.

Travel back in time 10-15 years and you'll see the exact same arguments, just different names.

But the 747 actually sold.... and was MUCH OLDER so those arguments would’ve been a bit off. The A380 is still a new generation jet and like I said, it came on the market and was economically bad. The 777X would have to fail economically like the 380 (I very much doubt it will). The 380 burns more fuel than a 747..I mean come on. Those arguments would clearly have been very wrong before or after EIS.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:57 am

The argument that the 380 burns more fuel than a 747 is ridiculous. The 380 is a bigger plane.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:19 pm

AlanG1302 wrote:
The argument that the 380 burns more fuel than a 747 is ridiculous. The 380 is a bigger plane.

so is the 779 over the 773 and the 748 over the 747-400 but there you go
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:20 pm

Assuming Boeing consolidate 787 production in South Carolina, what happens with the Washington real estate currently housing 747 and 787 production?
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:28 pm

Opus99 wrote:
SteinarN wrote:
The death knell for the 777X will be when Airbus reengines the A350 with the RR Ultrafan. RR is currently in the process of assembly of the first complete engine for start of ground testing next year. In two to three years we should se start of flight testing of the Ultrafan. Ofc Boeing will be forced to reengine the B787 within a year of Airbus announcement of reengining of the A350. Both these two aircrafts will then be considerably more efficient than the B777X. So, I would say the end of production of the B777X will most likely be before the end of this deacade. and end of ordering the B777X will be around the timeframe when Airbus anounces the reengining of the A350.

When? What does your crystal ball say? The A359 and the 787 are already more efficient than the 777X. Maybe they will spend money on the A35K re-engine too...I mean it hasn’t really sold but maybe that’s their plan who knows. The A359 sure. Seeing as the 787 launched earlier than the 359 I expect the need for a re-engine to come earlier. RR has said it sees a broad application for its ultrafan technology so on both Boeing and Airbus aircrafts. I don’t know if RR would want to give up on the 787 they might want to revive themselves on a re-engine. Anyway I don’t see a re-engine of any widebody hitting the market till early 2030. It’s obvious it’s not widebodies airlines are looking for.

With the 777X like I’ve argued before, this idea the A359 and 787 is the beginning and end of widebodies is a bit off. And I say A359 because if you’re writing off the 779 then you should be writing the A35K off too. And I don’t really think you should be writing them off at all. Some things we really can’t tell. 2 years in 35K and sales have still stalled on that and you think they will re-engine it? They should work on getting it sold. It’s a fantastic aircraft, why it doesn’t sell I have no clue. But by the time you factor in this downturn, I’ll be shocked if we see a rengine hit the market this decade


It doesn't sell as though it is a very impressive aircraft performance wise - reportedly it is very expensive to build as they use a lot of expensive materials to get that performance. Airlines aren't biting at the price Airbus needs to make a profit.

They need to do what Boeing did with the 787 (took a lot of cost out of it with less expensive materials).

Boeing going to one line on 787 should lower their costs a lot and reduce the price where they can sell it profitability vs running two lines at low levels.
 
JohanTally
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:31 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
LY777 wrote:
Guys, you know, the market will end recovering and airlines will need aircraft like the 779X


Not for a long time. The trend is moving to smaller aircraft and higher frequency. This was even prior to COVID.
There will be more cancellations or conversions, before there are sales.

This is sounding a lot like the A380:

"It's the aircraft of the future for high-demand routes"
"Orders will pick up once this crisis is over"
"It has the lowest CASM on the market"
"Growing passenger numbers will make this aircraft necessary in slot-limited airports"

I'm sure that the 777-9 will be delivered eventually, and that the few operators will like it. But I just don't see it replicating the 777-300ER's success. Like the A380, it will only find few airlines that can use it effectively; for the others the 787 and A350 will remain the best choice.


Over 40 airlines operate the 77W and the 779 is only 3 frames longer. Why is it such a leap to assume that at least a third of these airlines replace the 77W with the 779 when retirements are needed? The 77W is still a relatively young airplane which means it will be a while before retirements show airlines' intentions going forward.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:42 pm

morrisond wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
SteinarN wrote:
The death knell for the 777X will be when Airbus reengines the A350 with the RR Ultrafan. RR is currently in the process of assembly of the first complete engine for start of ground testing next year. In two to three years we should se start of flight testing of the Ultrafan. Ofc Boeing will be forced to reengine the B787 within a year of Airbus announcement of reengining of the A350. Both these two aircrafts will then be considerably more efficient than the B777X. So, I would say the end of production of the B777X will most likely be before the end of this deacade. and end of ordering the B777X will be around the timeframe when Airbus anounces the reengining of the A350.

When? What does your crystal ball say? The A359 and the 787 are already more efficient than the 777X. Maybe they will spend money on the A35K re-engine too...I mean it hasn’t really sold but maybe that’s their plan who knows. The A359 sure. Seeing as the 787 launched earlier than the 359 I expect the need for a re-engine to come earlier. RR has said it sees a broad application for its ultrafan technology so on both Boeing and Airbus aircrafts. I don’t know if RR would want to give up on the 787 they might want to revive themselves on a re-engine. Anyway I don’t see a re-engine of any widebody hitting the market till early 2030. It’s obvious it’s not widebodies airlines are looking for.

With the 777X like I’ve argued before, this idea the A359 and 787 is the beginning and end of widebodies is a bit off. And I say A359 because if you’re writing off the 779 then you should be writing the A35K off too. And I don’t really think you should be writing them off at all. Some things we really can’t tell. 2 years in 35K and sales have still stalled on that and you think they will re-engine it? They should work on getting it sold. It’s a fantastic aircraft, why it doesn’t sell I have no clue. But by the time you factor in this downturn, I’ll be shocked if we see a rengine hit the market this decade


It doesn't sell as though it is a very impressive aircraft performance wise - reportedly it is very expensive to build as they use a lot of expensive materials to get that performance. Airlines aren't biting at the price Airbus needs to make a profit.

They need to do what Boeing did with the 787 (took a lot of cost out of it with less expensive materials).

Boeing going to one line on 787 should lower their costs a lot and reduce the price where they can sell it profitability vs running two lines at low levels.


While I agree that the A350 has to become cheaper it will be hard to do that with lower output (now at 5 per month).

On the other hand the consolidation of the 787 line might make it cheaper for Boeing to assemble, but the low production rate will increase prices for all the components and the 787 is famous for having everything outsourced. So I do not think that Boeing can sell 787 as profitable at rate 6 from one source as at rate 14 from two. If Boeing is lucky it is a zero game if they are unlucky the cost actually increases especially if suppliers need financial support to survive massive rate cuts. Most of them have bought their tooling for a rate of 12-14 aircraft and are sitting now on expensive equipment that needs to be paid but can not be used. If the suppliers can't survive that Boeing has to bail them out or buy/take over the production and this will add cost rather than reduce it.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:45 pm

How many 744 operators are left? KL, CA, KE, and LH?
 
Scotron12
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:49 pm

Wasn't the writing on the wall when EK cut their 777X orders and replaced them with 787s?? Now they talk of reducing further in favor of more 787s.

I have read recently that CX & SQ have agreed with Airbus to defer orders, LH seems to be doing the same. But not a peep out of Seattle.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:03 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
Wasn't the writing on the wall when EK cut their 777X orders and replaced them with 787s?? Now they talk of reducing further in favor of more 787s.

I have read recently that CX & SQ have agreed with Airbus to defer orders, LH seems to be doing the same. But not a peep out of Seattle.

CX in discussion with Boeing to defer as at last week, SQ is also in discussions with Boeing. LH said only deferrals no cancellations. I mean if you look for it you’ll find it. Because EK cut their orders for the 777X does that mean the aircraft won’t sell? Bear in mind EK is the only airline that has actually cut their firm orders. They and Boeing know they overdid as usual. Like I’ve said most 300ERS are between 0-9 years. Let’s have this discussion when replacement cycle is ripe and see the position of the 777X.

Why don’t we talk about QR taking all 777Xs from 2022 and pushing out all 77Ws by 2024. But of course not because that doesn’t fit your narrative
 
 
Scotron12
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:15 pm

No narrative whatsoever. Just commenting on the changing and challenging environment aviation finds itself in right now.

Airbus cut their A350 rate to 5/month. Do not see any meaningful recovery until 2023 at best...2025 at worse.

So my comment on EK and their 777x commitments, they already cut them long before Covid19, chances are they'll do so again. Makes sense, no?

As to QR, AAB is all over the place. One week he says they won't fly their A380s, next week he says maybe on a limited basis. He already stated he will defer orders...could be out as far as 2028. Who knows?
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:39 pm

United also never cancels the A350 order, it just gets deferred. The actual problem for the 777X is not that it will not be sold and delivered. There are a handful of airlines that need it and want it. The problem is when will this happen and how much money is Boeing willing to throw at the program before it might make a return on the investment. We will see this soon enough when deferred production costs will show up. If this happens in 2022 and the production rate stays low Boeing will have a problem with the program before certain airlines are willing to take the -X or make more orders. As stated most -ERs are good for another 20-30 years in service and many airlines just have stocked up on massive amounts of 787s, A350s and end of the line 330s. There are a lot of WB aircraft out there ready to be taken before new orders have to be made.

If it is true that Boeing loses 25million on every 747 produced (this was mentioned here in the forum) than I can see Boeing also losing 5-10 million on every 777X as long as the rate stays at 2 per month.

It is still a good aircraft and so was the A380 but it might never make money for Boeing.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:47 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
United also never cancels the A350 order, it just gets deferred. The actual problem for the 777X is not that it will not be sold and delivered. There are a handful of airlines that need it and want it. The problem is when will this happen and how much money is Boeing willing to throw at the program before it might make a return on the investment. We will see this soon enough when deferred production costs will show up. If this happens in 2022 and the production rate stays low Boeing will have a problem with the program before certain airlines are willing to take the -X or make more orders. As stated most -ERs are good for another 20-30 years in service and many airlines just have stocked up on massive amounts of 787s, A350s and end of the line 330s. There are a lot of WB aircraft out there ready to be taken before new orders have to be made.

If it is true that Boeing loses 25million on every 747 produced (this was mentioned here in the forum) than I can see Boeing also losing 5-10 million on every 777X as long as the rate stays at 2 per month.

It is still a good aircraft and so was the A380 but it might never make money for Boeing.

Aviation is about economics of scale. So I believe Boeing will lose money at 2/month.

Airbus was bringing the A350 towards profitability. Cutting production will make that hard to achieve.

The rule of thumb is every doubling of production cuts costs 13% with automation, 10% without. This industry will limp along until 2023.

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Opus99
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:07 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
No narrative whatsoever. Just commenting on the changing and challenging environment aviation finds itself in right now.

Airbus cut their A350 rate to 5/month. Do not see any meaningful recovery until 2023 at best...2025 at worse.

So my comment on EK and their 777x commitments, they already cut them long before Covid19, chances are they'll do so again. Makes sense, no?

As to QR, AAB is all over the place. One week he says they won't fly their A380s, next week he says maybe on a limited basis. He already stated he will defer orders...could be out as far as 2028. Who knows?

I think he’s been fairly consistent on the 380. They’re not flying because they’re gas guzzlers and here we are; no QR 380s in the sky.

They’ll be stretched out to 2028 due to the fact that they are also replacing 380s as well as they need time to develop a first seat. Bear in mind. 6 years to deliver 60 aircrafts? I mean that seems normal.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:15 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
Assuming Boeing consolidate 787 production in South Carolina, what happens with the Washington real estate currently housing 747 and 787 production?


They'll need somewhere to build all the fantasy planes that folks here keep inventing. :duck:
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UA748i
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:54 pm

ILNFlyer wrote:
NameOmitted wrote:
Relayer wrote:
What if, for example, Boeing had spent money on making the 747 a twin instead of going the way they did? Maybe it would have had to be smaller than the 744 if need be?


Assuming all went well, Boeing would still be maintaining two programs, 747 and 777. By growing the 777 to include your suggested smaller 747 (and indeed, to include the 777-400), Boeing can offer a 747 sized aircraft with relatively few orders since much is the ongoing program costs can be spread across the entire 777 line.


Save the 747! Hang 2 777X engines under the wings! :duck:


Shorten the 747-8 fuselage back to a 744 length. Same wing, two GE9X, and boom!

Ha...Unfortunately, I dont think that would work. Theyd pretty much have to retool the wing for a two engine configuration.

Does the 748 have the "Sutter Twist?"
 
SteinarN
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:31 pm

Opus99 wrote:
SteinarN wrote:
The death knell for the 777X will be when Airbus reengines the A350 with the RR Ultrafan. RR is currently in the process of assembly of the first complete engine for start of ground testing next year. In two to three years we should se start of flight testing of the Ultrafan. Ofc Boeing will be forced to reengine the B787 within a year of Airbus announcement of reengining of the A350. Both these two aircrafts will then be considerably more efficient than the B777X. So, I would say the end of production of the B777X will most likely be before the end of this deacade. and end of ordering the B777X will be around the timeframe when Airbus anounces the reengining of the A350.

When? What does your crystal ball say? The A359 and the 787 are already more efficient than the 777X. Maybe they will spend money on the A35K re-engine too...I mean it hasn’t really sold but maybe that’s their plan who knows. The A359 sure. Seeing as the 787 launched earlier than the 359 I expect the need for a re-engine to come earlier. RR has said it sees a broad application for its ultrafan technology so on both Boeing and Airbus aircrafts. I don’t know if RR would want to give up on the 787 they might want to revive themselves on a re-engine. Anyway I don’t see a re-engine of any widebody hitting the market till early 2030. It’s obvious it’s not widebodies airlines are looking for.

With the 777X like I’ve argued before, this idea the A359 and 787 is the beginning and end of widebodies is a bit off. And I say A359 because if you’re writing off the 779 then you should be writing the A35K off too. And I don’t really think you should be writing them off at all. Some things we really can’t tell. 2 years in 35K and sales have still stalled on that and you think they will re-engine it? They should work on getting it sold. It’s a fantastic aircraft, why it doesn’t sell I have no clue. But by the time you factor in this downturn, I’ll be shocked if we see a rengine hit the market this decade


I think I said what and when...
The A350 and B787 is less, not more efficient than the B777X (9). The reason for this is solely due to the newer and more efficient GE9X engine which is around 6-8 percent more efficient than the engines on the A350/B787. But the ultrafan is even more efficient than the GE9X, so a ultrafan installed on the lighter fully carbon the B787/A350 will make those aircrafts considerably more efficient than the B777X. And it is absolutely nothing Boeing can do about this. All is in the hands of Airbus, and to a lesser degree RR, for when they are ready to and decides to anounce the reengine of the A350.

Airbus will reengine both A350 models as they will see the A350-10 taking over for the B777X while the A359 together with the B787 is for the slightly thinner routes.

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