SteinarN wrote:Opus99 wrote:SteinarN wrote:The death knell for the 777X will be when Airbus reengines the A350 with the RR Ultrafan. RR is currently in the process of assembly of the first complete engine for start of ground testing next year. In two to three years we should se start of flight testing of the Ultrafan. Ofc Boeing will be forced to reengine the B787 within a year of Airbus announcement of reengining of the A350. Both these two aircrafts will then be considerably more efficient than the B777X. So, I would say the end of production of the B777X will most likely be before the end of this deacade. and end of ordering the B777X will be around the timeframe when Airbus anounces the reengining of the A350.
When? What does your crystal ball say? The A359 and the 787 are already more efficient than the 777X. Maybe they will spend money on the A35K re-engine too...I mean it hasn’t really sold but maybe that’s their plan who knows. The A359 sure. Seeing as the 787 launched earlier than the 359 I expect the need for a re-engine to come earlier. RR has said it sees a broad application for its ultrafan technology so on both Boeing and Airbus aircrafts. I don’t know if RR would want to give up on the 787 they might want to revive themselves on a re-engine. Anyway I don’t see a re-engine of any widebody hitting the market till early 2030. It’s obvious it’s not widebodies airlines are looking for.
With the 777X like I’ve argued before, this idea the A359 and 787 is the beginning and end of widebodies is a bit off. And I say A359 because if you’re writing off the 779 then you should be writing the A35K off too. And I don’t really think you should be writing them off at all. Some things we really can’t tell. 2 years in 35K and sales have still stalled on that and you think they will re-engine it? They should work on getting it sold. It’s a fantastic aircraft, why it doesn’t sell I have no clue. But by the time you factor in this downturn, I’ll be shocked if we see a rengine hit the market this decade
I think I said what and when...
The A350 and B787 is less, not more efficient than the B777X (9). The reason for this is solely due to the newer and more efficient GE9X engine which is around 6-8 percent more efficient than the engines on the A350/B787. But the ultrafan is even more efficient than the GE9X, so a ultrafan installed on the lighter fully carbon the B787/A350 will make those aircrafts considerably more efficient than the B777X. And it is absolutely nothing Boeing can do about this. All is in the hands of Airbus, and to a lesser degree RR, for when they are ready to and decides to anounce the reengine of the A350.
Airbus will reengine both A350 models as they will see the A350-10 taking over for the B777X while the A359 together with the B787 is for the slightly thinner routes.
You didn’t tell us when an ultrafan will EIS. But I can bet you it won’t be this decade. Secondly as we’ve already established, Airbus is already looking for ways to reduce their costs on the 350. Airlines are not biting on the price for the 35K albeit a brilliant more into the aircraft which they’ve not managed to sell? This seems a bit personal from the fact that you’ve said and there’s “nothing Boeing can do about this” I mean really? Why can’t Boeing apply the ultra fan in 10 years time to a re-engined 777X since you’re so certain 10 years on from an A350 there will be a re-engine. Bear in mind RR has made it clear ultra fan is looking to be applicable on both Boeing & Airbus?