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Opus99
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:53 pm

SteinarN wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
SteinarN wrote:
The death knell for the 777X will be when Airbus reengines the A350 with the RR Ultrafan. RR is currently in the process of assembly of the first complete engine for start of ground testing next year. In two to three years we should se start of flight testing of the Ultrafan. Ofc Boeing will be forced to reengine the B787 within a year of Airbus announcement of reengining of the A350. Both these two aircrafts will then be considerably more efficient than the B777X. So, I would say the end of production of the B777X will most likely be before the end of this deacade. and end of ordering the B777X will be around the timeframe when Airbus anounces the reengining of the A350.

When? What does your crystal ball say? The A359 and the 787 are already more efficient than the 777X. Maybe they will spend money on the A35K re-engine too...I mean it hasn’t really sold but maybe that’s their plan who knows. The A359 sure. Seeing as the 787 launched earlier than the 359 I expect the need for a re-engine to come earlier. RR has said it sees a broad application for its ultrafan technology so on both Boeing and Airbus aircrafts. I don’t know if RR would want to give up on the 787 they might want to revive themselves on a re-engine. Anyway I don’t see a re-engine of any widebody hitting the market till early 2030. It’s obvious it’s not widebodies airlines are looking for.

With the 777X like I’ve argued before, this idea the A359 and 787 is the beginning and end of widebodies is a bit off. And I say A359 because if you’re writing off the 779 then you should be writing the A35K off too. And I don’t really think you should be writing them off at all. Some things we really can’t tell. 2 years in 35K and sales have still stalled on that and you think they will re-engine it? They should work on getting it sold. It’s a fantastic aircraft, why it doesn’t sell I have no clue. But by the time you factor in this downturn, I’ll be shocked if we see a rengine hit the market this decade


I think I said what and when...
The A350 and B787 is less, not more efficient than the B777X (9). The reason for this is solely due to the newer and more efficient GE9X engine which is around 6-8 percent more efficient than the engines on the A350/B787. But the ultrafan is even more efficient than the GE9X, so a ultrafan installed on the lighter fully carbon the B787/A350 will make those aircrafts considerably more efficient than the B777X. And it is absolutely nothing Boeing can do about this. All is in the hands of Airbus, and to a lesser degree RR, for when they are ready to and decides to anounce the reengine of the A350.

Airbus will reengine both A350 models as they will see the A350-10 taking over for the B777X while the A359 together with the B787 is for the slightly thinner routes.

You didn’t tell us when an ultrafan will EIS. But I can bet you it won’t be this decade. Secondly as we’ve already established, Airbus is already looking for ways to reduce their costs on the 350. Airlines are not biting on the price for the 35K albeit a brilliant more into the aircraft which they’ve not managed to sell? This seems a bit personal from the fact that you’ve said and there’s “nothing Boeing can do about this” I mean really? Why can’t Boeing apply the ultra fan in 10 years time to a re-engined 777X since you’re so certain 10 years on from an A350 there will be a re-engine. Bear in mind RR has made it clear ultra fan is looking to be applicable on both Boeing & Airbus?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:13 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
No narrative whatsoever. Just commenting on the changing and challenging environment aviation finds itself in right now.

Airbus cut their A350 rate to 5/month. Do not see any meaningful recovery until 2023 at best...2025 at worse.

I think that's the lede. Both A&B gushed out cash at -$5B in Q2, both are saying it'll be end 2021 before they can hope to stop paying out more cash than they take in, and a lot can happen between now and then. Once the bleeding stops then there will be a long recovery period since so much money is being borrowed now to get through the roughest period.

SteinarN wrote:
The death knell for the 777X will be when Airbus reengines the A350 with the RR Ultrafan. RR is currently in the process of assembly of the first complete engine for start of ground testing next year. In two to three years we should se start of flight testing of the Ultrafan. Ofc Boeing will be forced to reengine the B787 within a year of Airbus announcement of reengining of the A350. Both these two aircrafts will then be considerably more efficient than the B777X. So, I would say the end of production of the B777X will most likely be before the end of this deacade. and end of ordering the B777X will be around the timeframe when Airbus anounces the reengining of the A350.

I think RR will have some interesting decisions to make going forward. Clearly they had challenges even before COVID-19. They've had layoffs, they're financials were negative due to the T1000 issues, now the whole industry is on its knees. I'm not sure what the Ultrafan timeline is these days. Clearly the R&D stuff is expensive, but the real big spend happens when tooling up for serial production. The actual act of introducing a new product, getting the early units and spares out, doing the necessary training, etc is always expensive and as we see via recent engine intros, can be risky. It seems their main cash cow is TXWB. How aggressive are they going to want to be to replace it with an Ultrafan?

scbriml wrote:
NameOmitted wrote:
Assuming Boeing consolidate 787 production in South Carolina, what happens with the Washington real estate currently housing 747 and 787 production?

They'll need somewhere to build all the fantasy planes that folks here keep inventing. :duck:

They can use one hall for fantasy planes, another to consolidate all that tooling stored all over the place.
Last edited by Revelation on Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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SteinarN
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:15 pm

Opus99 wrote:
SteinarN wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
When? What does your crystal ball say? The A359 and the 787 are already more efficient than the 777X. Maybe they will spend money on the A35K re-engine too...I mean it hasn’t really sold but maybe that’s their plan who knows. The A359 sure. Seeing as the 787 launched earlier than the 359 I expect the need for a re-engine to come earlier. RR has said it sees a broad application for its ultrafan technology so on both Boeing and Airbus aircrafts. I don’t know if RR would want to give up on the 787 they might want to revive themselves on a re-engine. Anyway I don’t see a re-engine of any widebody hitting the market till early 2030. It’s obvious it’s not widebodies airlines are looking for.

With the 777X like I’ve argued before, this idea the A359 and 787 is the beginning and end of widebodies is a bit off. And I say A359 because if you’re writing off the 779 then you should be writing the A35K off too. And I don’t really think you should be writing them off at all. Some things we really can’t tell. 2 years in 35K and sales have still stalled on that and you think they will re-engine it? They should work on getting it sold. It’s a fantastic aircraft, why it doesn’t sell I have no clue. But by the time you factor in this downturn, I’ll be shocked if we see a rengine hit the market this decade


I think I said what and when...
The A350 and B787 is less, not more efficient than the B777X (9). The reason for this is solely due to the newer and more efficient GE9X engine which is around 6-8 percent more efficient than the engines on the A350/B787. But the ultrafan is even more efficient than the GE9X, so a ultrafan installed on the lighter fully carbon the B787/A350 will make those aircrafts considerably more efficient than the B777X. And it is absolutely nothing Boeing can do about this. All is in the hands of Airbus, and to a lesser degree RR, for when they are ready to and decides to anounce the reengine of the A350.

Airbus will reengine both A350 models as they will see the A350-10 taking over for the B777X while the A359 together with the B787 is for the slightly thinner routes.

You didn’t tell us when an ultrafan will EIS. But I can bet you it won’t be this decade. Secondly as we’ve already established, Airbus is already looking for ways to reduce their costs on the 350. Airlines are not biting on the price for the 35K albeit a brilliant more into the aircraft which they’ve not managed to sell? This seems a bit personal from the fact that you’ve said and there’s “nothing Boeing can do about this” I mean really? Why can’t Boeing apply the ultra fan in 10 years time to a re-engined 777X since you’re so certain 10 years on from an A350 there will be a re-engine. Bear in mind RR has made it clear ultra fan is looking to be applicable on both Boeing & Airbus?


Ref. applicable on both Airbus and Boeing.
Exactly therefore I specifically mention both the A350 and the B787 regarding reengining with the ultrafan.

Ref. why cant Boeing reengine the B777X with the ultrafan.
Comparing a B777X with a B787/A350, all with an ultrafan derived engine with the same efficiency, the B777X will be the least efficient airplane due to the high empty weight caused by the aluminum fuselage. Remember the empty weight of the B777X is about 30 tons more than the just slightly smaller A350K. The state of the art B777X wing cant compensate for this when all three aircrafts have the same generation engine. As I said, the sole reason for the B777X beeing more efficient than the A350/B787 is due to the 6-8 percent more efficient state of the art GE9X engine. The more efficient GE9X engine paired with the large but very heavy aluminum fuselage and the very long span/high aspect ratio carbon wing makes the B777X about 3-5 percent more efficient than the A350/B787.
Then take away the advantage that the GE9X engine gives the aircraft and see what you are left with....

Ref. there is nothing Boeing can do about it.
See what I wrote above. There is no alternative engine that Boeing can put on the B777X in ten years time that have the same advantage over the RR ultrafan as the GE9X have over the current A350/B787 engines. It is this fact that Boeing can do exactly nothing with.

Ref. EIS of the ultrafan.
RR have not slowed down on the development of the ultrafan. Next year starts the ground testing, in two to three years time starts the flight testing, we are then in -22 or -23. Expect max two years after that before the ultrafan gets certified, we are then around -24 to -25. Possibly EIS about two years after that if Airbus goes forward with the project. Do the math your self.
Airbus have people working on this project already. One or two years ago Airbus was advertising for design engineers for a A350 new engine project. Sadly I dont have any links for that advertisement, but it was mentioned on this forum in several post a year or two ago.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:38 pm

SteinarN wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
SteinarN wrote:

I think I said what and when...
The A350 and B787 is less, not more efficient than the B777X (9). The reason for this is solely due to the newer and more efficient GE9X engine which is around 6-8 percent more efficient than the engines on the A350/B787. But the ultrafan is even more efficient than the GE9X, so a ultrafan installed on the lighter fully carbon the B787/A350 will make those aircrafts considerably more efficient than the B777X. And it is absolutely nothing Boeing can do about this. All is in the hands of Airbus, and to a lesser degree RR, for when they are ready to and decides to anounce the reengine of the A350.

Airbus will reengine both A350 models as they will see the A350-10 taking over for the B777X while the A359 together with the B787 is for the slightly thinner routes.

You didn’t tell us when an ultrafan will EIS. But I can bet you it won’t be this decade. Secondly as we’ve already established, Airbus is already looking for ways to reduce their costs on the 350. Airlines are not biting on the price for the 35K albeit a brilliant more into the aircraft which they’ve not managed to sell? This seems a bit personal from the fact that you’ve said and there’s “nothing Boeing can do about this” I mean really? Why can’t Boeing apply the ultra fan in 10 years time to a re-engined 777X since you’re so certain 10 years on from an A350 there will be a re-engine. Bear in mind RR has made it clear ultra fan is looking to be applicable on both Boeing & Airbus?


Ref. applicable on both Airbus and Boeing.
Exactly therefore I specifically mention both the A350 and the B787 regarding reengining with the ultrafan.

Ref. why cant Boeing reengine the B777X with the ultrafan.
Comparing a B777X with a B787/A350, all with an ultrafan derived engine with the same efficiency, the B777X will be the least efficient airplane due to the high empty weight caused by the alumin fuselage. Remember the empty weight of the B777X is about 30 tons more than the just slightly smaller A350K. The state of the art B777X wing cant compensate for this when all three aircrafts have the same generation engine. As I said, the sole reason for the B777X beeing more efficient than the A350/B787 is due to the 6-8 percent more efficient state of the art GE9X engine. The more efficient GE9X engine paired with the large but very heavy aluminum fuselage and the very long span/high aspect ratio carbon wing makes the B777X about 3-5 percent more efficient than the A350/B787.
Then take away the advantage that the GE9X engine gives the aircraft and see what you are left with....

Ref. there is nothing Boeing can do about it.
See what I wrote above. There is no alternative engine that Boeing can put on the B777X in ten years time that have the same advantage over the RR ultrafan as the GE9X have over the current A350/B787 engines. It is this fact that Boeing can do exactly nothing with.

When you talk about efficiency I’m assuming you mean per seat? I see your point anyway. I forget the GE9X is a generation ahead. Well whenever that bridge may come. I put at 10 years from now at the very earliest. We will see what Boeing does. But I don’t think it will be wise for Airbus to invest in an A35K re-engine anytime soon if they can’t sell this one. Moreover, look at what happened to 300ER sales in the mid/early 2010s there was a spike meanwhile the 35K was still very much launched yet it still didn’t push out the 300ER regardless of it’s improved economics. Between 2011 and 2015 over 300 77Ws when the A35K was about to hit the market. So you really never know
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:55 pm

TexStones wrote:
Gut feel: Boeing is clearing space within the Everett facility in order the prepare for the Next Big Thing.

Wayne Gretzky famously said "skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been."


I agree... What we will be seeing is this:
777X is Y3.. Period. No older 777, no 747.... Produced in Everett.
787 is Y2... Period. Produced in Charleston. Wing and Fuselage work is there... They aren't moving all of that up to Everett...
797 is Y1.... Single isle replacement for 737 and will cover previous NMA/MOM ambitions... Produced in Everett in that glorious space the 747 and 787 once occupied. They can scale manufacturing without worrying about impacting single-aisle production in Renton.

limited 767 production will stay around to feed military / freighter obligions in Everett.
737/737MAX production will stay around to feed military and current contract obligations in Renton.

I have no idea what any of my nefarious predictions hold long term for Spirit in Wichita and Boeing in Renton or Headquarters in Chicago...

World population is growing... Travel will recover. Sales will recover...
learning never stops...

FischAutoTechGarten is the full handle and it reflects my interest. It's abbreviated to fit A.net short usernames.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:47 pm

JohanTally wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
Slug71 wrote:

Not for a long time. The trend is moving to smaller aircraft and higher frequency. This was even prior to COVID.
There will be more cancellations or conversions, before there are sales.

This is sounding a lot like the A380:

"It's the aircraft of the future for high-demand routes"
"Orders will pick up once this crisis is over"
"It has the lowest CASM on the market"
"Growing passenger numbers will make this aircraft necessary in slot-limited airports"

I'm sure that the 777-9 will be delivered eventually, and that the few operators will like it. But I just don't see it replicating the 777-300ER's success. Like the A380, it will only find few airlines that can use it effectively; for the others the 787 and A350 will remain the best choice.


Over 40 airlines operate the 77W and the 779 is only 3 frames longer. Why is it such a leap to assume that at least a third of these airlines replace the 77W with the 779 when retirements are needed? The 77W is still a relatively young airplane which means it will be a while before retirements show airlines' intentions going forward.


The 777x might not be around for those replacements. The 777x is heavier than the 77W, yet has the same MTOW, and is far more expensive than the 77W and A35K.
The trend for the past few years is moving to smaller aircraft instead. This isnt going to change anytime soon.
Last edited by Slug71 on Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:47 pm

Opus99 wrote:
You didn’t tell us when an ultrafan will EIS. But I can bet you it won’t be this decade. Secondly as we’ve already established, Airbus is already looking for ways to reduce their costs on the 350. Airlines are not biting on the price for the 35K albeit a brilliant more into the aircraft which they’ve not managed to sell? This seems a bit personal from the fact that you’ve said and there’s “nothing Boeing can do about this” I mean really? Why can’t Boeing apply the ultra fan in 10 years time to a re-engined 777X since you’re so certain 10 years on from an A350 there will be a re-engine. Bear in mind RR has made it clear ultra fan is looking to be applicable on both Boeing & Airbus?

The thing people can't seem to explain is why most 777X customers already were A350 customers yet ordered 777X. The latest one, BA, already ordered A35K and clearly had all the data for it in house yet still ordered 779 when they could have simply just ordered more A35K.

I think COVID-19 changes the math a lot and in a way that doesn't favor the 777X or A35K either. I doubt A or B will discontinue either model, but I do think both will have a tough go of the next 3-5 years.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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cledaybuck
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:57 pm

People need to realize that there aren't going to be any new airplanes or engines for years.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:59 pm

Slug71 wrote:
JohanTally wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
This is sounding a lot like the A380:

"It's the aircraft of the future for high-demand routes"
"Orders will pick up once this crisis is over"
"It has the lowest CASM on the market"
"Growing passenger numbers will make this aircraft necessary in slot-limited airports"

I'm sure that the 777-9 will be delivered eventually, and that the few operators will like it. But I just don't see it replicating the 777-300ER's success. Like the A380, it will only find few airlines that can use it effectively; for the others the 787 and A350 will remain the best choice.


Over 40 airlines operate the 77W and the 779 is only 3 frames longer. Why is it such a leap to assume that at least a third of these airlines replace the 77W with the 779 when retirements are needed? The 77W is still a relatively young airplane which means it will be a while before retirements show airlines' intentions going forward.


The 777x might not be around for those replacements. The 777x is heavier than the 77W, yet has the same MTOW, and is far more expensive than the 77W and A35K.
The trend for the past few years is moving to smaller aircraft instead. This isnt going to change anytime soon.

You’d think it’s far more expensive but it really isn’t. Don’t go by list price. Their prices are indeed comparable. As somebody noted up thread the price Airbus charges for the A35K for it to be profitable is what stops airlines from purchasing it. The parts are very expensive. Think about it this way. The list price of the A380 and the 779 are the same. Meanwhile WW says oh the 380 is too expensive Airbus has to reduce the price but then puts money down for up to 42 779s...
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:00 pm

Revelation wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
You didn’t tell us when an ultrafan will EIS. But I can bet you it won’t be this decade. Secondly as we’ve already established, Airbus is already looking for ways to reduce their costs on the 350. Airlines are not biting on the price for the 35K albeit a brilliant more into the aircraft which they’ve not managed to sell? This seems a bit personal from the fact that you’ve said and there’s “nothing Boeing can do about this” I mean really? Why can’t Boeing apply the ultra fan in 10 years time to a re-engined 777X since you’re so certain 10 years on from an A350 there will be a re-engine. Bear in mind RR has made it clear ultra fan is looking to be applicable on both Boeing & Airbus?

The thing people can't seem to explain is why most 777X customers already were A350 customers yet ordered 777X. The latest one, BA, already ordered A35K and clearly had all the data for it in house yet still ordered 779 when they could have simply just ordered more A35K.

I think COVID-19 changes the math a lot and in a way that doesn't favor the 777X or A35K either. I doubt A or B will discontinue either model, but I do think both will have a tough go of the next 3-5 years.

Exactly. I’ve argued this before. There is space for both in the market and défini in fleets. Same with CX as well
 
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Slug71
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:10 pm

Opus99 wrote:
SteinarN wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
When? What does your crystal ball say? The A359 and the 787 are already more efficient than the 777X. Maybe they will spend money on the A35K re-engine too...I mean it hasn’t really sold but maybe that’s their plan who knows. The A359 sure. Seeing as the 787 launched earlier than the 359 I expect the need for a re-engine to come earlier. RR has said it sees a broad application for its ultrafan technology so on both Boeing and Airbus aircrafts. I don’t know if RR would want to give up on the 787 they might want to revive themselves on a re-engine. Anyway I don’t see a re-engine of any widebody hitting the market till early 2030. It’s obvious it’s not widebodies airlines are looking for.

With the 777X like I’ve argued before, this idea the A359 and 787 is the beginning and end of widebodies is a bit off. And I say A359 because if you’re writing off the 779 then you should be writing the A35K off too. And I don’t really think you should be writing them off at all. Some things we really can’t tell. 2 years in 35K and sales have still stalled on that and you think they will re-engine it? They should work on getting it sold. It’s a fantastic aircraft, why it doesn’t sell I have no clue. But by the time you factor in this downturn, I’ll be shocked if we see a rengine hit the market this decade


I think I said what and when...
The A350 and B787 is less, not more efficient than the B777X (9). The reason for this is solely due to the newer and more efficient GE9X engine which is around 6-8 percent more efficient than the engines on the A350/B787. But the ultrafan is even more efficient than the GE9X, so a ultrafan installed on the lighter fully carbon the B787/A350 will make those aircrafts considerably more efficient than the B777X. And it is absolutely nothing Boeing can do about this. All is in the hands of Airbus, and to a lesser degree RR, for when they are ready to and decides to anounce the reengine of the A350.

Airbus will reengine both A350 models as they will see the A350-10 taking over for the B777X while the A359 together with the B787 is for the slightly thinner routes.

You didn’t tell us when an ultrafan will EIS. But I can bet you it won’t be this decade. Secondly as we’ve already established, Airbus is already looking for ways to reduce their costs on the 350. Airlines are not biting on the price for the 35K albeit a brilliant more into the aircraft which they’ve not managed to sell? This seems a bit personal from the fact that you’ve said and there’s “nothing Boeing can do about this” I mean really? Why can’t Boeing apply the ultra fan in 10 years time to a re-engined 777X since you’re so certain 10 years on from an A350 there will be a re-engine. Bear in mind RR has made it clear ultra fan is looking to be applicable on both Boeing & Airbus?


The Ultrafan is supposed to EIS around 2025. Airbus had already publicly said that the A350 will be NEO'd with it.
Looks like things are progressing well.

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... e-ultrafan

https://aviationweek.com/ad-week/podcas ... d-ultrafan

https://aviationweek.com/ad-week/test-p ... k-run-2021

viewtopic.php?t=1415467
 
SteinarN
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:20 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
You didn’t tell us when an ultrafan will EIS. But I can bet you it won’t be this decade. Secondly as we’ve already established, Airbus is already looking for ways to reduce their costs on the 350. Airlines are not biting on the price for the 35K albeit a brilliant more into the aircraft which they’ve not managed to sell? This seems a bit personal from the fact that you’ve said and there’s “nothing Boeing can do about this” I mean really? Why can’t Boeing apply the ultra fan in 10 years time to a re-engined 777X since you’re so certain 10 years on from an A350 there will be a re-engine. Bear in mind RR has made it clear ultra fan is looking to be applicable on both Boeing & Airbus?

The thing people can't seem to explain is why most 777X customers already were A350 customers yet ordered 777X. The latest one, BA, already ordered A35K and clearly had all the data for it in house yet still ordered 779 when they could have simply just ordered more A35K.

I think COVID-19 changes the math a lot and in a way that doesn't favor the 777X or A35K either. I doubt A or B will discontinue either model, but I do think both will have a tough go of the next 3-5 years.

Exactly. I’ve argued this before. There is space for both in the market and défini in fleets. Same with CX as well


Yes, I agree, as long as Airbus dont announce the reengining of the A350 with the RR ultrafan. The moment Airbus do announce the reengining there is no longer space for the B777X.
The question is not if Airbus will do this, the question is when Airbus will announce the reengining of the A350, both the -9 and the -10.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:31 pm

Revelation wrote:
The thing people can't seem to explain is why most 777X customers already were A350 customers yet ordered 777X. The latest one, BA, already ordered A35K and clearly had all the data for it in house yet still ordered 779 when they could have simply just ordered more A35K.


I could see 777-300ER operators who did not see consistently high load factors year-round going with the A350-1000 because it offered better break-even economics. For those who did see high load factors more often, or were also looking at 747/A380 replacement or support, the 777-9's larger capacity (with better comfort than the 77W/744) could have influenced the decision towards that model.

Case in point, Lufthansa. One would have thought the A350-1000 would have been a shoe-in as an A340-600 replacement, but they had a decent-sized 747-400 fleet (and in a higher-density configuration, at that), so they went 777-9, instead.


Revelation wrote:
I think COVID-19 changes the math a lot and in a way that doesn't favor the 777X or A35K either. I doubt A or B will discontinue either model, but I do think both will have a tough go of the next 3-5 years.


But I think the A350-1000 could weather such a storm better because it is smaller so less risk if traffic remains lower for longer. That being said, if airlines are confident that once said storm has been contained and traffic returns and then grows, the 777-9 does offer that growth potential over the A350-1000.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:35 pm

Revelation wrote:
It's pretty obvious that Team A is going to have to make some big adjustments as well.


Airbus made already big adjustments. The A350 is at rate 6, the same rate as the 787. The A330 is at rate 1, below the 767. A380 production has basically ended.

As for narrowbody production, it is difficult to compare the rate to the 737 as the MAX suffers from its own issues.
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:44 pm

Slug71 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
SteinarN wrote:

I think I said what and when...
The A350 and B787 is less, not more efficient than the B777X (9). The reason for this is solely due to the newer and more efficient GE9X engine which is around 6-8 percent more efficient than the engines on the A350/B787. But the ultrafan is even more efficient than the GE9X, so a ultrafan installed on the lighter fully carbon the B787/A350 will make those aircrafts considerably more efficient than the B777X. And it is absolutely nothing Boeing can do about this. All is in the hands of Airbus, and to a lesser degree RR, for when they are ready to and decides to anounce the reengine of the A350.

Airbus will reengine both A350 models as they will see the A350-10 taking over for the B777X while the A359 together with the B787 is for the slightly thinner routes.

You didn’t tell us when an ultrafan will EIS. But I can bet you it won’t be this decade. Secondly as we’ve already established, Airbus is already looking for ways to reduce their costs on the 350. Airlines are not biting on the price for the 35K albeit a brilliant more into the aircraft which they’ve not managed to sell? This seems a bit personal from the fact that you’ve said and there’s “nothing Boeing can do about this” I mean really? Why can’t Boeing apply the ultra fan in 10 years time to a re-engined 777X since you’re so certain 10 years on from an A350 there will be a re-engine. Bear in mind RR has made it clear ultra fan is looking to be applicable on both Boeing & Airbus?


The Ultrafan is supposed to EIS around 2025. Airbus had already publicly said that the A350 will be NEO'd with it.
Looks like things are progressing well.

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... e-ultrafan

https://aviationweek.com/ad-week/podcas ... d-ultrafan

https://aviationweek.com/ad-week/test-p ... k-run-2021

viewtopic.php?t=1415467

What RR and Airbus said in 2019 or early this year is now completely meaningless.

There is now far less of a financial appetite to NEO a relatively new product such as A350 then there once was.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:46 pm

Slug71 wrote:
The Ultrafan is supposed to EIS around 2025. Airbus had already publicly said that the A350 will be NEO'd with it.
Looks like things are progressing well.

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... e-ultrafan

https://aviationweek.com/ad-week/podcas ... d-ultrafan

https://aviationweek.com/ad-week/test-p ... k-run-2021

viewtopic.php?t=1415467

The most definitive statement I could find on timeline was "In February 2019, potential introduction was delayed to 2027, to re-engine current aircraft, after full-scale ground tests in 2021" ( ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Roy ... t#UltraFan ) and since then I think it's safe to say there's been a lot of negative financial and logistical complications that would make a date set a year and a half ago be quite problematic now.

Your reference https://aviationweek.com/ad-week/test-p ... k-run-2021 says:

The engine is scheduled to begin ground tests in 2021, with follow-on units joining the test effort in 2022 and paving the way for initial production versions later in the decade.

I think we've quibbled over what "later in the decade" means before. I think I'll defer to the earlier statement, and keep in mind that statement was made before the COVID-19 outbreak.

To be positive, I'd say it seems a 2027 EIS is in the realm of possibility. The 2nd link above talks about a lot of individual test beds building up hours and a few of the early big pieces coming together with a goal of a full demonstrator engine by (presumably end of) 2021. Seems feasible, but also seems that the market is really in a huge state of flux so there's lots of issues to resolve between now and ~2027.
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:49 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Revelation wrote:
It's pretty obvious that Team A is going to have to make some big adjustments as well.


Airbus made already big adjustments. The A350 is at rate 6, the same rate as the 787.

Actually not, as per a link I gave earlier, Airbus announced it dropped A350 to rate 5 via its Q2 financial statement.
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:07 pm

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
I agree... What we will be seeing is this:
777X is Y3.. Period. No older 777, no 747.... Produced in Everett.
787 is Y2... Period. Produced in Charleston. Wing and Fuselage work is there... They aren't moving all of that up to Everett...
797 is Y1.... Single isle replacement for 737 and will cover previous NMA/MOM ambitions... Produced in Everett in that glorious space the 747 and 787 once occupied. They can scale manufacturing without worrying about impacting single-aisle production in Renton.

limited 767 production will stay around to feed military / freighter obligions in Everett.
737/737MAX production will stay around to feed military and current contract obligations in Renton.

I think the fact that the all new wing plant is in KPAE along with the spaces to be emptied as 747 gives up two bays, 777 shrinks to one bay and (presumably) 787 goes to KCHS means that whatever happens next will almost certainly start at KPAE.

Stitch wrote:
But I think the A350-1000 could weather such a storm better because it is smaller so less risk if traffic remains lower for longer. That being said, if airlines are confident that once said storm has been contained and traffic returns and then grows, the 777-9 does offer that growth potential over the A350-1000.

I think both are past the point of being dropped as some here suggest may happen. I think A350 has a lot of staying power, but I also think 777x has more staying power than people here are suggesting.
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:16 pm

Revelation wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
Revelation wrote:
It's pretty obvious that Team A is going to have to make some big adjustments as well.


Airbus made already big adjustments. The A350 is at rate 6, the same rate as the 787.

Actually not, as per a link I gave earlier, Airbus announced it dropped A350 to rate 5 via its Q2 financial statement.


In other words, they made big adjustments.
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:18 pm

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
TexStones wrote:
Gut feel: Boeing is clearing space within the Everett facility in order the prepare for the Next Big Thing.

Wayne Gretzky famously said "skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been."


I agree... What we will be seeing is this:
777X is Y3.. Period. No older 777, no 747.... Produced in Everett.
787 is Y2... Period. Produced in Charleston. Wing and Fuselage work is there... They aren't moving all of that up to Everett...
797 is Y1.... Single isle replacement for 737 and will cover previous NMA/MOM ambitions... Produced in Everett in that glorious space the 747 and 787 once occupied. They can scale manufacturing without worrying about impacting single-aisle production in Renton.

limited 767 production will stay around to feed military / freighter obligions in Everett.
737/737MAX production will stay around to feed military and current contract obligations in Renton.

I have no idea what any of my nefarious predictions hold long term for Spirit in Wichita and Boeing in Renton or Headquarters in Chicago...

World population is growing... Travel will recover. Sales will recover...


There is a good chance Boeing might make 797/NMA in South Carolina. A few years ago Boeing bought additional land in Charleston, large enough for an additional assembly plant.

Remember, Boeing HQ doesn't like union states.
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:21 pm

Revelation wrote:
The thing people can't seem to explain is why most 777X customers already were A350 customers yet ordered 777X.


Because the 779 is a larger aircraft. It is so obvious.

779 and A35K are not really competitors. They differ in size just like the 787 to the A350. While there is some overlap, both aircraft can serve different marets.
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:58 pm

If some of the prophecies regarding aviation in the post corona world turn out to be true, like the fear that 1/4 to 1/3 of business traffic is permanently lost, then indeed big birds are in trouble. If the percentage of leisure passenger or passengers who travel out of personal reason is make up a bigger share of total passengers then big planes like the 777X might turn out to be too much plane for many routes, simply because leisure / private traffic is not so premium heavy and lower yielding. On the other hand C19 might make many secondary long haul markets unprofitable and legacy carriers might return to more of a hub and spoke model (coupled with the disappearance of some long haul carriers & downsizing of some hubs), which would be good news for the 777X, since it is the only big bird for certain hub to hub trunk routes. Prior to C19 I would have predicted, that the 777X will have a decent sales, but now thats kind of an open ended question. IMO if priced competitively the 777X will sell well down the road, but unfortunately that is not really helping Boeing in the short term.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:19 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Revelation wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
Airbus made already big adjustments. The A350 is at rate 6, the same rate as the 787.

Actually not, as per a link I gave earlier, Airbus announced it dropped A350 to rate 5 via its Q2 financial statement.

In other words, they made big adjustments.

You seem to not recognize that "The A350 is at rate 6, the same rate as the 787" is a false statement.
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:57 pm

JohanTally wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
Slug71 wrote:

Not for a long time. The trend is moving to smaller aircraft and higher frequency. This was even prior to COVID.
There will be more cancellations or conversions, before there are sales.

This is sounding a lot like the A380:

"It's the aircraft of the future for high-demand routes"
"Orders will pick up once this crisis is over"
"It has the lowest CASM on the market"
"Growing passenger numbers will make this aircraft necessary in slot-limited airports"

I'm sure that the 777-9 will be delivered eventually, and that the few operators will like it. But I just don't see it replicating the 777-300ER's success. Like the A380, it will only find few airlines that can use it effectively; for the others the 787 and A350 will remain the best choice.


Over 40 airlines operate the 77W and the 779 is only 3 frames longer. Why is it such a leap to assume that at least a third of these airlines replace the 77W with the 779 when retirements are needed? The 77W is still a relatively young airplane which means it will be a while before retirements show airlines' intentions going forward.

A third of 800 frames is 266. A third of 45 airlines is 15.
Boeing "already has" 309 orders for the 777-X from 9 airlines. The airlines with the -X on order are not realy speacking of top off orders right now and weren't even pre-covid. With shleving of 777-8, the ME "restructuration" and covid, get ready to loose between 50 and 100 orders.
Among the 77W customers, the only one not having ordered the -X yet who may order it seem to be PK, KL, SV, KE, BR and AC, that would make it exactly 15... Those customers may bring back the 50 to 100 frames lost above but not much more.
Last edited by mig17 on Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:03 pm

Revelation wrote:
With what money?

  • Boeing just lost $2.4B in one quarter!
  • 737 was at rate 43 heading for 50 before MCAS, now they're hoping to be at rate 31 in early 2022
  • 737 still has costs with performing ADs on stored aircraft, remaining RTS efforts, MAX-7 EIS, MAX-10 EIS
  • 747 was losing money but now it'll still lose money and then bear the cost of shutting down the line
  • 767 was at 3/month, being cut to 2/month
  • 777 rate sinks to 2/month while still bearing costs of 777X development
  • 787 was at 12/month a year or two ago, now targeting 6/month

Hard to understand what's gonna keep the enterprise going. Hard to suggest that 6/month of 787 does it, no? Surely the 787 customers will want concessions to cope with the new market reality.

Overall the news suggests 2020 and 2021 are going to be deep in the red, and maybe 2022 they'll begin to crawl out of the hole but there's major risks that won't happen.

Keep in mind the only reason they are still afloat is they borrowed $billions at market rates. The lodestone is truly around their necks.


The 787 customers aren't in a position to demand concessions outright. The market reality is the 787 deliveries are held up by the customers, not Boeing. Some will have leverage based on the 737 issues, although that becomes a two-edged sword once Boeing is able to deliver 737's again. Still, Boeing will need to take seriously their requests for relief from contract terms, because customer bankruptcies would be worse than concessions, cancellations with penalties aren't very favorable either, and helping the airlines come out of this on decent financial footing will help airframe demand recover more quickly.

The cash flow situation is going to be really tough for sure. However, they've already been working on mitigating this for several months.

  • In Q3, their labor costs will start to drop due to the layoffs (but there are severance costs, 1/3 of which were in the 2nd quarter).
  • In Q4, they will hopefully have 737 revenue coming in again, slowly at first, but then increasing.
  • 787's continued to be built (I'm not sure the real rate), incurring costs, but only 7 were delivered. The rate reduction and customers finding financing to accept delivery will narrow that gap
  • 777X development sounds like it is slowing, so presumably there will be small savings there.
  • Defense still has positive margins and should remain so.
  • Due in particular to the bond sales, they now have $32 billion in cash or marketable securities and $9.6 billion in revolving credit access.

The earnings call was helpful to understand better how those factors are likely to play out.

The bonds won't last through the recovery to 2019 travel levels at this quarter's burn rate. However, that burn rate should slow significantly once 737 deliveries start to ramp up, and other cash flow reductions will more slowly improve it. They indicated in the Q2 earnings call that they expect the cash burn to continue into "part" of 2021. I take that to imply they believe they can make 737's and 787's profitably at the 31 and 6 per month respectively.

Looking further ahead, from some really rough calculations, I suspect the 737 rate of 31 per month targeted for 2022 is based in large part on the rate older aircraft reach retirement. If the flight rate increases smoothly between now and then, from 50% of 2019 levels now to 100% of 2019 levels in 2023, then even combined with 450 stored MAX'es, I think that puts airlines very slightly behind their capacity needs at that point, not even fully accounting for retirements that were accelerated. In other words, I think Boeing has made their 737 production plan slightly conservative, so there should be a low risk of needing to adjust that further downward, and possibly even an opportunity to accelerate it slightly.

All this considered, I think Boeing has some margin for things to go worse than expected yet still survive. However, they're going to have cash flow tied up in paying down debt for quite a few years going forward in addition to lower overall revenue, so their current stock price is still curiously high to me.

A part of me is actually more worried about the supply chain, and a big part of me is definitely worried about the individual employees throughout the aerospace sector who will have to deal with the layoffs.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:17 pm

Revelation wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Actually not, as per a link I gave earlier, Airbus announced it dropped A350 to rate 5 via its Q2 financial statement.

In other words, they made big adjustments.

You seem to not recognize that "The A350 is at rate 6, the same rate as the 787" is a false statement.

Then we need to talk units per year, for I get lost on the months in an Airbus year. Which is why I like to talk annualized numbers, but I do not know the Airbus annualized.

747 is wrapping up
The 777 has dropped too low for long term.b Gauge raises concern for sales.
The 787 production is too low, long term, for two production lines, but the type has long term stability.
The 767 has a small efficient line that will also do tankers for long term stability.
The 737 faces a flood of already built aircraft. There is a very acute short term crisis. That flood of already built stock will impact all 737 values.

Aurbus:
A380 is wrapping up
A350 production dropped to a long term sustainable value.
A330 production has dropped to too low for long term. This is if concern for sales.
A320 is at a very healthy production rate. Too healthy. This will impact all A320 values.

Airbus had a negative cash flow of 4.4 billion euros ($5.4 billion usd).

Neither is healthy.

Vendors serve both and are in the ICU. Meggitt, Moog, and Woodward will suffer. Raytheon Technologies is looking brilliant for spinning off OTIS and Carrier and buying Raytheon, they look fine and likely to buy vendors. GE is hurting, but fine. RR is hurting and a likely takeover target, but by whom? Spirit is doomed IMHO. Honeywell is doing remarkably well (despite layoffs) and will be buy some vendors.

I'm watching the vendors. The balance of power might shift with enough consolidation. The diverse machine shop supply base is about to get hurt badly.

I'm not looking at A vs. B. I'm looking at an industry in upheaval.

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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:19 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The thing people can't seem to explain is why most 777X customers already were A350 customers yet ordered 777X.


Because the 779 is a larger aircraft. It is so obvious.

779 and A35K are not really competitors. They differ in size just like the 787 to the A350. While there is some overlap, both aircraft can serve different marets.

So is the 777-9 really seen as a 77W replacement? Or, more as a A380 / 747 replacement since "it is larger in size"?
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:33 pm

Revelation wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Actually not, as per a link I gave earlier, Airbus announced it dropped A350 to rate 5 via its Q2 financial statement.

In other words, they made big adjustments.

You seem to not recognize that "The A350 is at rate 6, the same rate as the 787" is a false statement.


You seem to not recognize that "Team A is going to have to make some big adjustments as well" - which I was responding to in the first place - is a false statement as Airbus made big production cuts in April, long before Boeing. You are implying that Airbus has not made big production cuts up until today.

Cutting the A350 rate from 10 to current levels, be it 5 or 6, IS a big cut.

The lower the rate, the bigger the cut, thus the more it proves my point.
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:38 pm

mig17 wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The thing people can't seem to explain is why most 777X customers already were A350 customers yet ordered 777X.


Because the 779 is a larger aircraft. It is so obvious.

779 and A35K are not really competitors. They differ in size just like the 787 to the A350. While there is some overlap, both aircraft can serve different marets.

So is the 777-9 really seen as a 77W replacement? Or, more as a A380 / 747 replacement since "it is larger in size"?


It's intended as all of the above. But reality is that it's more of a A380 / 747 replacement. The 78J, A359 and A35K will probably make most of the 77W replacements.
But there are still a lot of young 77Ws out there with plenty of parts availability.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:41 am

ORDfan wrote:

I was thinking the same thing actually. In a world with too much capacity, is the smaller of the two VLA more likely to be long-term viable?

Does that apply to smaller widebodies too?
Is the 787 better positioned in the covid world than the A350?
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:44 am

Revelation wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
You didn’t tell us when an ultrafan will EIS. But I can bet you it won’t be this decade. Secondly as we’ve already established, Airbus is already looking for ways to reduce their costs on the 350. Airlines are not biting on the price for the 35K albeit a brilliant more into the aircraft which they’ve not managed to sell? This seems a bit personal from the fact that you’ve said and there’s “nothing Boeing can do about this” I mean really? Why can’t Boeing apply the ultra fan in 10 years time to a re-engined 777X since you’re so certain 10 years on from an A350 there will be a re-engine. Bear in mind RR has made it clear ultra fan is looking to be applicable on both Boeing & Airbus?

The thing people can't seem to explain is why most 777X customers already were A350 customers yet ordered 777X. The latest one, BA, already ordered A35K and clearly had all the data for it in house yet still ordered 779 when they could have simply just ordered more A35K.

I think COVID-19 changes the math a lot and in a way that doesn't favor the 777X or A35K either. I doubt A or B will discontinue either model, but I do think both will have a tough go of the next 3-5 years.


Some airlines definitely had/will have a use for aircraft that large (prior to CoVid at least) and if you need aircraft that size then the A350 won't cut it. BA are one of very few airlines that actively sought more A380s, so their 777 order is entirely understandable. The question is how many airlines need a plane that big, and the answer seems to be 'not a huge number'. Always worth noting that the 777X has 8 customers, 7 of which are/were A380 operators (though NH is a special case so I'd say 6/8 is fairer), and if the 777X is only really gaining traction amongst A380 operators, then it's not going to have a terribly wide appeal. I can see a handful of airlines ordering it from now, but not for a while, and we can't rule out more conservative fleet planning from airlines in the aftermath of the worst crisis for aviation ever.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:47 am

9Patch wrote:
ORDfan wrote:

I was thinking the same thing actually. In a world with too much capacity, is the smaller of the two VLA more likely to be long-term viable?

Does that apply to smaller widebodies too?
Is the 787 better positioned in the covid world than the A350?


The 787 is the best-placed of the widebodies to succeed in this environment, but the A359 sits between the 789 and 78X, so it's not a huge jump, most airlines that make money with a 787 would do so with an A350, but the latter has a slight edge on busier routes (whenever those may return).
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:55 am

Revelation wrote:

IIRC Leeham said CHS alone can only do 100/year so if Boeing closes PAE it is admitting that 787 production likely won't ever get past 8.3/month again.

'Ever again' is a really long time.
Would it not be possible for Boeing to increase production capacity at CHS by building more plant if demand returns?
Perhaps when 737 production ends they can sell the very valuable Renton property and move production of the new narrow body to Everett.
Or maybe they will abandon WA altogether and continue to grow in South Carolina.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:45 am

9Patch wrote:
ORDfan wrote:

I was thinking the same thing actually. In a world with too much capacity, is the smaller of the two VLA more likely to be long-term viable?

Does that apply to smaller widebodies too?
Is the 787 better positioned in the covid world than the A350?


I don't think anyone can say with authority what becomes best suited for a COVID world. We don't yet know what a COVID world looks like. If a year from now we still don't have a vaccine, it's possible that we need to redesign the interior of the aircraft. Depending on what that means, the extra space carved out of the sidewall of the 777X could become very valuable.

We don't yet know.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:17 am

cledaybuck wrote:
People need to realize that there aren't going to be any new airplanes or engines for years.


Like more than 5 years to any announcement, even the 778. The one exception may be the 764F as that snaps together in a different way basically already certified parts and sections. That will take a healthy chunk of orders to make happen.

No other stretches, no new engines, minimal R&D spending until the companies are in the black cash flow wise.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:56 am

Opus99 wrote:
You’d think it’s far more expensive but it really isn’t. Don’t go by list price. Their prices are indeed comparable. As somebody noted up thread the price Airbus charges for the A35K for it to be profitable is what stops airlines from purchasing it. The parts are very expensive. Think about it this way. The list price of the A380 and the 779 are the same. Meanwhile WW says oh the 380 is too expensive Airbus has to reduce the price but then puts money down for up to 42 779s...


List price is a guide though. Basically you aren't selling 777X for A330neo prices, whatever the list prices says. Airlines get different discounts based on a variety of factors, but you start from list price and negotiate the discount from there, right?


Revelation wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Actually not, as per a link I gave earlier, Airbus announced it dropped A350 to rate 5 via its Q2 financial statement.

In other words, they made big adjustments.


You seem to not recognize that "The A350 is at rate 6, the same rate as the 787" is a false statement.


He also said the A330neo is at rate 1 when it is at rate 2, not sure what you are trying to point out but his main point stands. Airbus made adjustments before Boeing did on the A350 line. Yes, they have also made an additional adjustment in the meantime to rate 5 instead of 6.

Revelation wrote:
I think the fact that the all new wing plant is in KPAE along with the spaces to be emptied as 747 gives up two bays, 777 shrinks to one bay and (presumably) 787 goes to KCHS means that whatever happens next will almost certainly start at KPAE.


Is this the reality where Boeing is investing in new programs from scratch to take up that space, but RR is not continuing development on an engine that it has spent quite a lot of R&D on already? Just checking.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:42 am

enzo011 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
You’d think it’s far more expensive but it really isn’t. Don’t go by list price. Their prices are indeed comparable. As somebody noted up thread the price Airbus charges for the A35K for it to be profitable is what stops airlines from purchasing it. The parts are very expensive. Think about it this way. The list price of the A380 and the 779 are the same. Meanwhile WW says oh the 380 is too expensive Airbus has to reduce the price but then puts money down for up to 42 779s...


List price is a guide though. Basically you aren't selling 777X for A330neo prices, whatever the list prices says. Airlines get different discounts based on a variety of factors, but you start from list price and negotiate the discount from there, right?


Revelation wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
In other words, they made big adjustments.


You seem to not recognize that "The A350 is at rate 6, the same rate as the 787" is a false statement.


He also said the A330neo is at rate 1 when it is at rate 2, not sure what you are trying to point out but his main point stands. Airbus made adjustments before Boeing did on the A350 line. Yes, they have also made an additional adjustment in the meantime to rate 5 instead of 6.

Revelation wrote:
I think the fact that the all new wing plant is in KPAE along with the spaces to be emptied as 747 gives up two bays, 777 shrinks to one bay and (presumably) 787 goes to KCHS means that whatever happens next will almost certainly start at KPAE.


Is this the reality where Boeing is investing in new programs from scratch to take up that space, but RR is not continuing development on an engine that it has spent quite a lot of R&D on already? Just checking.

Of course list price is a guide. 777X is still Boeing’s most expensive plane. The A35K is still Airbus’ most expensive plane. But the difference in list price between the two is almost meaningless when you see what the actual value of the aircrafts are. They are very very similar in price even though list price puts them at a 100 million dollar difference. That’s my point.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:42 am

Sad to see this

How many total airframes will have been built when the last one is delivered?
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
B777LRF
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:09 am

List prices for airliners are absolutely meaningless in any other context than marketing. They serve the sole purpose of allowing the manufacturer to issue a presser saying they sold aircraft worth x amount of billions "at list prices".

To give you a few examples: The 777F lists at USD 352M but they retail at around 120-150. AA bought 737-700s for around 25M each, when they listed at around 75M. Kalitta once bought a brand spanking new 747-400ERF for around 75M, which had been in storage for a couple of years. It listed at around 325M at the time. Similar examples can be found for Airbus products; both retail their products somewhere at between 1/3 to 1/2 of the list price. Contrary to popular "knowledge" on this board, one of them does not regularly offer bigger "discounts" than the other.

Thus the list prices are not even a guide, they're a marketing tool - nothing more, nothing less.
Signature. You just read one.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:37 am

Ziyulu wrote:
How many 744 operators are left? KL, CA, KE, and LH?

There is a thread, with periodic updates, of retirements, and in the COVID-19 era, parkings:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1438051
Currently, Asiana and Rossiya appear to be most probable to be found, operating theirs, on pax runs. KL consistently operates their combi's, hauling cargo.
Others are generally parked. Users are fairly vigilant, and from time to time, a summary of surviving operators, and their fleet status, is being published.

If you are interested, similar threads have been launched, to track the status of the other passenger VLAs in this crisis:
747-8i:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1444533
A380:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1444531
AN4 A40 L4T TU3 TU5 IL6 ILW I93 F50 F70 100 146 ARJ AT7 DH4 L10 CRJ ERJ E90 E95 DC-9 MD-8X YK4 YK2 SF3 S20 319 320 321 332 333 343 346 722 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 744 74M 757 767 777
Ceterum autem censeo, Moscovia esse delendam
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:50 am

B777LRF wrote:
List prices for airliners are absolutely meaningless in any other context than marketing. They serve the sole purpose of allowing the manufacturer to issue a presser saying they sold aircraft worth x amount of billions "at list prices".

To give you a few examples: The 777F lists at USD 352M but they retail at around 120-150. AA bought 737-700s for around 25M each, when they listed at around 75M. Kalitta once bought a brand spanking new 747-400ERF for around 75M, which had been in storage for a couple of years. It listed at around 325M at the time. Similar examples can be found for Airbus products; both retail their products somewhere at between 1/3 to 1/2 of the list price. Contrary to popular "knowledge" on this board, one of them does not regularly offer bigger "discounts" than the other.

Thus the list prices are not even a guide, they're a marketing tool - nothing more, nothing less.

Even more so when you consider customer accrued retrospective credits were scaled up for X orders, compared to other models.
 
olle
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:01 pm

Opus99 wrote:
SteinarN wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
When? What does your crystal ball say? The A359 and the 787 are already more efficient than the 777X. Maybe they will spend money on the A35K re-engine too...I mean it hasn’t really sold but maybe that’s their plan who knows. The A359 sure. Seeing as the 787 launched earlier than the 359 I expect the need for a re-engine to come earlier. RR has said it sees a broad application for its ultrafan technology so on both Boeing and Airbus aircrafts. I don’t know if RR would want to give up on the 787 they might want to revive themselves on a re-engine. Anyway I don’t see a re-engine of any widebody hitting the market till early 2030. It’s obvious it’s not widebodies airlines are looking for.

With the 777X like I’ve argued before, this idea the A359 and 787 is the beginning and end of widebodies is a bit off. And I say A359 because if you’re writing off the 779 then you should be writing the A35K off too. And I don’t really think you should be writing them off at all. Some things we really can’t tell. 2 years in 35K and sales have still stalled on that and you think they will re-engine it? They should work on getting it sold. It’s a fantastic aircraft, why it doesn’t sell I have no clue. But by the time you factor in this downturn, I’ll be shocked if we see a rengine hit the market this decade


I think I said what and when...
The A350 and B787 is less, not more efficient than the B777X (9). The reason for this is solely due to the newer and more efficient GE9X engine which is around 6-8 percent more efficient than the engines on the A350/B787. But the ultrafan is even more efficient than the GE9X, so a ultrafan installed on the lighter fully carbon the B787/A350 will make those aircrafts considerably more efficient than the B777X. And it is absolutely nothing Boeing can do about this. All is in the hands of Airbus, and to a lesser degree RR, for when they are ready to and decides to anounce the reengine of the A350.

Airbus will reengine both A350 models as they will see the A350-10 taking over for the B777X while the A359 together with the B787 is for the slightly thinner routes.

You didn’t tell us when an ultrafan will EIS. But I can bet you it won’t be this decade. Secondly as we’ve already established, Airbus is already looking for ways to reduce their costs on the 350. Airlines are not biting on the price for the 35K albeit a brilliant more into the aircraft which they’ve not managed to sell? This seems a bit personal from the fact that you’ve said and there’s “nothing Boeing can do about this” I mean really? Why can’t Boeing apply the ultra fan in 10 years time to a re-engined 777X since you’re so certain 10 years on from an A350 there will be a re-engine. Bear in mind RR has made it clear ultra fan is looking to be applicable on both Boeing & Airbus?


Of course Boeing can add Ultrafan.

But today 350K with a bit less efficient engines is equal to a 777X with more efficient engines. If A350 and 777x get equal efficient engines I suppose that Boeing cannot do too much about the frame itself, therefore 350 gets more efficient the 777x. 350 seems to be a moving target as well. A few years ago 779 was supposed to be much more capable then 350K. Now they seems equal or very similar, with 350 much more efficient. This does not hide the fact that the demand for WB the next few years seems limited, with A320XLR with a joker in the game.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:04 pm

enzo011 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I think the fact that the all new wing plant is in KPAE along with the spaces to be emptied as 747 gives up two bays, 777 shrinks to one bay and (presumably) 787 goes to KCHS means that whatever happens next will almost certainly start at KPAE.

Is this the reality where Boeing is investing in new programs from scratch to take up that space, but RR is not continuing development on an engine that it has spent quite a lot of R&D on already? Just checking.

I would have thought "whatever happens next" was vague enough to pass muster, but perhaps not! :biggrin:

Clearly Boeing's and RR's next clean sheets are going to be very costly launches that won't happen any time soon.
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:48 pm

Wonder how "Avatar Airlines" feels about Boeing closing the 747 line, heard they had grand plans to order 25 747-8i's They still keep advertising for various vacancies on Twitter. I believe their business plans are similar to "Baltia Airlines" of Michigan.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:48 pm

xms3200 wrote:
Wonder how "Avatar Airlines" feels about Boeing closing the 747 line, heard they had grand plans to order 25 747-8i's They still keep advertising for various vacancies on Twitter. I believe their business plans are similar to "Baltia Airlines" of Michigan.


I have a bridge you may be interested in buying!
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:08 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
9Patch wrote:
ORDfan wrote:

I was thinking the same thing actually. In a world with too much capacity, is the smaller of the two VLA more likely to be long-term viable?

Does that apply to smaller widebodies too?
Is the 787 better positioned in the covid world than the A350?


The 787 is the best-placed of the widebodies to succeed in this environment, but the A359 sits between the 789 and 78X, so it's not a huge jump, most airlines that make money with a 787 would do so with an A350, but the latter has a slight edge on busier routes (whenever those may return).


But what about Zvezda's Law?

If you can move less people at costs close to your larger competitor, airlines will always go for the smaller plane.
You can increase yield, either by reducing capacity on a route or increasing frequency.
 
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:47 am

The new CEO of UPS has indicated that she wants the company to be sized profitably, not to take everything people want it to take. (This is the problem with a duopoly, of course. Competition is reduced dramatically, so prices go up. Absent a duopoly, you'll take a lot more marginal-cost business.)

Accordingly, she said that Boeing had offered her 3 747-8Fs, and she had turned them down.
 
Boeing1978
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:47 am

No question things are looking grim for the airlines of the world, not to mention Airbus and Boeing.
However, a vaccine could change things very quickly. That's my hope and from what I've read, things are progressing very well on that front.

Let's stay positive and support each other.
USA
 
LMP737
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Sun Aug 02, 2020 1:38 am

Opus99 wrote:
747classic wrote:
Concentrate your production and administration again on one site : Seattle -Everett

- Headoffice back to Seattle from Chicago, the lines between the engineers and managers must be shortend again, with more engineers at the controls..
- reduction in aircraft parts flying over continental USA.
- Seen the quality issues at Charleston, the choice seems not too difficult, to concentrate 787 production again at Everett
- After assembly of the 747 has ended in 2022, there is plenty of room in Everett for 787-10 assembly.

Exactly my thinking. Boeing should move the 787 program to Everett completely. The quality control issues coming out of SC are just too much.

At that point the main two lines coming out of Everett would be the 787 and the 777X


That will never happen in a million years. It was likely managements intent to eventually move 787 production out of Everett. SC is corporate HQ golden child, they are untouchable. To end final assembly there would mean they made a mistake. They are more likely to close Everett completely before they would close Charleston.
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Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

Sun Aug 02, 2020 1:55 am

LMP737 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Exactly my thinking. Boeing should move the 787 program to Everett completely. The quality control issues coming out of SC are just too much.

At that point the main two lines coming out of Everett would be the 787 and the 777X

That will never happen in a million years. It was likely managements intent to eventually move 787 production out of Everett. SC is corporate HQ golden child, they are untouchable. To end final assembly there would mean they made a mistake. They are more likely to close Everett completely before they would close Charleston.

I don't have a subscription, but The Air Current seems to be making a similar point, the move from PAE to CHS has been in the works for a very long time and the outcome is inevitable. Seems his info comes from an NLRB suit that shifting work to CHS has been retaliation for the union's 2008 strike.

Ref: https://theaircurrent.com/industry-stra ... -carolina/
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