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mercure1
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SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:37 pm

SIA Group which posted record loss yesterday announced it would conduct a review on the shape and size of its network and fleet.
The group including Scoot and Silk Air operates a fleet of 220 aircraft.

During earnings it was stated:
“The review is likely to lead to a material impairment of the carrying values of older generation aircraft, particularly the A380 aircraft, which would account for approximately $1 billion.”

One analyst suggested SIA look to simplify fleet types with A320CEO, 737-800, B77W and A380s fleets most subject to withdrawal.

Stories:

SIA A380 future in limbo as review of future network, fleet size underway
https://www.flightglobal.com/sia-a380-f ... 32.article

Future of Singapore Airlines' A380 in limbo
https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... t-reviewed

Singapore Airlines To Reassess Its Fleet Plan
https://simpleflying.com/singapore-airl ... et-review/
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Antarius
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:14 am

Interesting. Makes sense. The a350 is the largest SQ type now and the 787 is large across SQ and Scoot so some of the older 77Ws, 773 and a380s could get phased out.

I guess that means the 777X is on track as of now?
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AngMoh
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:26 am

The funny thing is that if you look at the fleet pages on their website, all 772/77Es are gone as expected, but the 773 is still listed. I thought the 773 would be gone first.

I think 777x on track but delayed: the will replace A380. Some 77Ws are also very new and keep in mind A380, 77W and 779 all have first class, but the A359/787s don't. Some routes need first class. so I think the 77W will stay for a while. Even today they are used to NRT and sometimes ZRH.

The guys who bought the 737-800 should be fired. That did not make sense when bought and even less sense now.
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frigatebird
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:40 am

AngMoh wrote:
The funny thing is that if you look at the fleet pages on their website, all 772/77Es are gone as expected, but the 773 is still listed. I thought the 773 would be gone first.

I think 777x on track but delayed: the will replace A380. Some 77Ws are also very new and keep in mind A380, 77W and 779 all have first class, but the A359/787s don't. Some routes need first class. so I think the 77W will stay for a while. Even today they are used to NRT and sometimes ZRH.

The guys who bought the 737-800 should be fired. That did not make sense when bought and even less sense now.


The non-ER 773 was a great regional large capacity aircraft for SQ. But with covid-19 a regional aircraft this size makes no sense any more, so I don't think we will see much of it in SQ's future. Their role can be taken over by their 787-10 and A359 regional aircraft.

Pretty sure the 777X deliveries for SQ will be delayed to 2023 or so. It was meant as 77W replacement, but may very well become A380 replacement. And the A359 will be 77W replacement.

If SQ really plans to retire their entire A380 fleet, they will send some 2,5 to 5 year old aircraft to the desert (or keep it there). That's gonna be a huge write-off in their books. Hard to believe IMO, I think they will keep at least their youngest A380s.

The 737-800s were inherited from Silkair, I believe to bridge the gap to 737MAX deliveries. Most probably short term leases I would think.
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LAX772LR
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:17 am

Really hope they keep their A359ULRs, and keep them in that mechanical configuration.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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zeke
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:39 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Really hope they keep their A359ULRs, and keep them in that mechanical configuration.


It would be utter madness to get rid of the A350s, going forward that will be the largest size aircraft they need on long haul routes fir the next few years. The ULRs can be made into normal A359s easily.

The A380 and 77W are dead money, the 736-MAX might be dead as well. They could bring excess scoot A320s into replace the grounded MAX aircraft, the ex silk air crew would need very little to get them going again.
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ltbewr
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:49 am

It's interesting that the unthinkable, SQ retiring all their A380 fleet, is a strong possibility. But we have gone into a worldwide economic depression will little need for their capacity for years.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:56 am

A US $727 million write down doesn't go as far as one might think it would. Delta's charge of $1.4 Billion covered ten 77Ls (avg age ~11.5 years) and eight 777s (avg age ~21 years).

Writing off SIA's nineteen A380s avg age 8.3 years? Sounds very expensive.
 
na
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:33 pm

The first 773, 9V-SYI, has been ferried to Goodyear/Arizona as we speak. Goodyear, thats a place most airliners never leave again. Surely the rest of the remaining regional 773s will follow soon. Thai is also in the process of outphasing the regional 777 and I wonder if CX will also retire this largely obsolete type shortterm.
 
brilondon
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:53 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
A US $727 million write down doesn't go as far as one might think it would. Delta's charge of $1.4 Billion covered ten 77Ls (avg age ~11.5 years) and eight 777s (avg age ~21 years).

Writing off SIA's nineteen A380s avg age 8.3 years? Sounds very expensive.


So does running 90% empty 4 engine aircraft. I think they will make the right decision.
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BrianDromey
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:56 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
A US $727 million write down doesn't go as far as one might think it would. Delta's charge of $1.4 Billion covered ten 77Ls (avg age ~11.5 years) and eight 777s (avg age ~21 years).

Writing off SIA's nineteen A380s avg age 8.3 years? Sounds very expensive.


Dont SQ devalue their aircraft over 10 years? DL would depreciate over much longer periods, likely in the region of 25 years, but I don't know the specifics. That might be why the impairment charge is relatively modest for such new and expensive aircraft.
 
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Revelation
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:43 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
A US $727 million write down doesn't go as far as one might think it would. Delta's charge of $1.4 Billion covered ten 77Ls (avg age ~11.5 years) and eight 777s (avg age ~21 years).

Writing off SIA's nineteen A380s avg age 8.3 years? Sounds very expensive.

Especially after they just finished spending $850M to redo the interiors: https://atwonline.com/air-transport/int ... s-new-a380

The huge four holers are the first to be sent to the desert and the last to leave (if ever). They have huge per-trip costs and high maintenance costs. They need to be full to make money, and it's hard to see that happen any time soon. It's going to be a very tempting target to cut.

In the CV19 news thread I posted a link saying IATA has pushed back its forecast of return to 2019 levels of air traffic to 2024. I bet SQ is doing the math to say "how much will it cost us to keep these things parked till 2024, keep core pilot and maintenance crews for it, etc?".

Challenging times ahead...
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jfk777
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:53 pm

Singapore Airlines can sell enough First and Business Class seats at high enough prices to make the A380 work to Zurich, London & Tokyo. Do they need 19 A380 and the cost of putting the new First Suites into older planes, maybe some. SQ could do with 5 less A380, this is a plane they are closely associated with. A Singapore Airline where the two long haul planes are A359-900 & 77W seems boring. That day will arrive soon enough when the A380 wears out, lets enjoy another 7 to 10 years of it please.
 
avek00
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:41 pm

jfk777 wrote:
Singapore Airlines can sell enough First and Business Class seats at high enough prices to make the A380 work to Zurich, London & Tokyo. Do they need 19 A380 and the cost of putting the new First Suites into older planes, maybe some. SQ could do with 5 less A380, this is a plane they are closely associated with. A Singapore Airline where the two long haul planes are A359-900 & 77W seems boring. That day will arrive soon enough when the A380 wears out, lets enjoy another 7 to 10 years of it please.


You are kidding, right? Longhaul business travel is close to nonexistent worldwide, and will be the very last market segment to return for a number of reasons. In fact, SQ is at a particular disadvantage in capturing that traffic during the pandemic because the financial services and management jobs Singapore is known for are easy to work remotely (e.g., videoconferencing works well for those folks when they need to connect with peers elsewhere in Asia, Europe, or the Americas).

SQ's "association" with the A380 had little commercial value pre-pandemic, and no value today. As was the case with the SQ 747 retirements, life goes on. The 359/77W/787 may be boring to you, but those are exactly the fleet types that will keep SQ alive now and going forward.
Live life to the fullest.
 
airbazar
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:21 pm

My family and I were planning to ride SQ's A380 on EWR-FRA-SIN this Summer, on our way to Bali. I live outside of Boston and was planning to drive to EWR just to fly with SQ on the A380. It would be a shame if they get rid of it. I can't imagine that I'm the only person going out of my way to fly an SQ A380.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:31 pm

BrianDromey wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
A US $727 million write down doesn't go as far as one might think it would. Delta's charge of $1.4 Billion covered ten 77Ls (avg age ~11.5 years) and eight 777s (avg age ~21 years).

Writing off SIA's nineteen A380s avg age 8.3 years? Sounds very expensive.


Dont SQ devalue their aircraft over 10 years? DL would depreciate over much longer periods, likely in the region of 25 years, but I don't know the specifics. That might be why the impairment charge is relatively modest for such new and expensive aircraft.


Google finds lots of references to Singapore depreciation but nothing current in the first bunch of results. SIA's annual report is frustratingly non-specific:

Aircraft are depreciated on a straight-line basis at rates which are calculated to write down their cost to their
estimated residual values at the end of their operational lives.


That's really no different from Delta: We record property and equipment at cost and depreciate or amortize these assets on a straight-line basis to their estimated residual values over their estimated useful lives.

DL and SQ may operate to different accounting standards but useful life of assets can't be arbitrary. A particularly short asset life would depress SIA's taxable income on a continual basis.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:36 pm

Revelation wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
A US $727 million write down doesn't go as far as one might think it would. Delta's charge of $1.4 Billion covered ten 77Ls (avg age ~11.5 years) and eight 777s (avg age ~21 years).

Writing off SIA's nineteen A380s avg age 8.3 years? Sounds very expensive.

Especially after they just finished spending $850M to redo the interiors: https://atwonline.com/air-transport/int ... s-new-a380

The huge four holers are the first to be sent to the desert and the last to leave (if ever). They have huge per-trip costs and high maintenance costs. They need to be full to make money, and it's hard to see that happen any time soon. It's going to be a very tempting target to cut.

In the CV19 news thread I posted a link saying IATA has pushed back its forecast of return to 2019 levels of air traffic to 2024. I bet SQ is doing the math to say "how much will it cost us to keep these things parked till 2024, keep core pilot and maintenance crews for it, etc?".

Challenging times ahead...


I don't challenge your facts or interpretation... I'm just suspicious that they can write-off all 19 for US$727 million. Your remarks on interior refurbishment just add to that. Interiors wouldn't have the same depreciation period as aircraft but surely extensive interior refurbs are depreciated, not expensed as occurred.

I guess we'll see!
 
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:54 pm

zeke wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Really hope they keep their A359ULRs, and keep them in that mechanical configuration.

It would be utter madness to get rid of the A350s, going forward that will be the largest size aircraft they need on long haul routes fir the next few years. The ULRs can be made into normal A359s easily.

You completely missed the context.

I'm specifically referring to the -ULRs, and to keeping them in that configuration.



airbazar wrote:
My family and I were planning to ride SQ's A380 on EWR-FRA-SIN this Summer

The 1stop is at JFK. EWR hasn't been a 1stop since the early '00s.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:03 pm

jfk777 wrote:
A Singapore Airline where the two long haul planes are A359-900 & 77W seems boring.

Ah yes, because that's exactly what multi-billion dollar international corporations base their decisions on. :roll:
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
jfk777
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:03 pm

avek00 wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Singapore Airlines can sell enough First and Business Class seats at high enough prices to make the A380 work to Zurich, London & Tokyo. Do they need 19 A380 and the cost of putting the new First Suites into older planes, maybe some. SQ could do with 5 less A380, this is a plane they are closely associated with. A Singapore Airline where the two long haul planes are A359-900 & 77W seems boring. That day will arrive soon enough when the A380 wears out, lets enjoy another 7 to 10 years of it please.


You are kidding, right? Longhaul business travel is close to nonexistent worldwide, and will be the very last market segment to return for a number of reasons. In fact, SQ is at a particular disadvantage in capturing that traffic during the pandemic because the financial services and management jobs Singapore is known for are easy to work remotely (e.g., videoconferencing works well for those folks when they need to connect with peers elsewhere in Asia, Europe, or the Americas).

SQ's "association" with the A380 had little commercial value pre-pandemic, and no value today. As was the case with the SQ 747 retirements, life goes on. The 359/77W/787 may be boring to you, but those are exactly the fleet types that will keep SQ alive now and going forward.



Avek00,

No I am not kidding but you make the silly assumption I meant "put an A380 in the air TODAY" instead of "WHEN IT MAKES SENSE".


SIA should put the A380 in the air when it makes sense I hope that provides enough clarification for you.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:24 pm

jfk777 wrote:
No I am not kidding but you make the silly assumption I meant "put an A380 in the air TODAY" instead of "WHEN IT MAKES SENSE".

But what you continue to seemingly not understand, is the increasing likelihood that "when it makes sense" might be never.

Hence so many airlines, including SQ, considering getting rid of A380s permanently.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
airbazar
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:39 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
airbazar wrote:
My family and I were planning to ride SQ's A380 on EWR-FRA-SIN this Summer

The 1stop is at JFK. EWR hasn't been a 1stop since the early '00s.

You're absolutely right, I had a brain fart when I typed it.
LAX772LR wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
No I am not kidding but you make the silly assumption I meant "put an A380 in the air TODAY" instead of "WHEN IT MAKES SENSE".

But what you continue to seemingly not understand, is the increasing likelihood that "when it makes sense" might be never.

Hence so many airlines, including SQ, considering getting rid of A380s permanently.


More like reducing the fleet size, perhaps? I know of only AF and QR announcing a full fleet retirement and QR not until 2028.
I somehow doubt that traffic volume on SIN-LHR, SIN-SYD, SIN-TYO will never come back.I still believe that more than lack of demand, what's keeping passengers at home are the government travel restrictions. And those won't last forever.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:54 pm

airbazar wrote:
I somehow doubt that traffic volume on SIN-LHR, SIN-SYD, SIN-TYO will never come back.

No one's suggesting that "traffic volume" will never come back.

The implication is: keeping an inflexibly large airframe, entering its second decade of ops (in a nation that depreciates aircraft on a similar time scale), which has absolutely zero secondary market appeal, and increasing parts/MRO costs due to global fleet decrease....... for three-ish routes that can easily be addressed by 787/777/A350s, might not be the optimum idea.

I personally still believe we'll be seeing A380s flying a decade from now (EK and perhaps others), but I also wouldn't be surprised if we don't, especially if intercon markets haven't begun to recover in earnest well into the next year or two.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:10 pm

I would also ask about their four B773s as well (I presume that the three B772s are finished at Singapore Airlines but have not been sold yet). It should be noted that SQ/MI/TR owns all of its Boeing fleet (Boeing 737, 747, 777, and 787), and and also all of its Airbus A350 and A380 fleet, with 1 of 2 A319s, 31 of 37 A320/A20N, and the 8 A333s leased.

Now, as for the ULR fleet (which is currently 7 frames), the only route where they could really be used, and filled, is SIN-EWR...but that route needs to be re-timed to be what it was with the A345...arrival in EWR at 5 to 6 PM and a return departure around 11 PM, to facilitate transfers in the region.) I also don't see the route returning until NS21 at the earliest, but I do see it returning. However, SIN-EWR only requires 4 frames (3 in the air and 1 standby). The other 3 could be reconfigured into the 253-seat configuration, which would give SQ 29 frames in that configuration.(alongside what will eventually be 17 regional 303-seat A350s). If EWR can't be profitably resumed, that would be 33 frames in the 253-seat configuration.

As for JFK and IAH, the B77W can replace the A380s, with FRA being the scissors point. I do not see the A380 as having a future in the SQ fleet, even with 5 frames being less than 4 years old (SKU/V/W/Y/Z); the other 14 frames are between 8 and 12 years old. The big issue will be writing down the value of those newer A380s. As for the B77Ws, of which SQ currently has 27...the B744 fleet (7 freighters) have an average age of 17 years. I don't know how dense the cargo is on those frames, but would it be worth it for SQ to eventually send out 7 frames for conversion to replace the B744s?
 
smartplane
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:43 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
A US $727 million write down doesn't go as far as one might think it would. Delta's charge of $1.4 Billion covered ten 77Ls (avg age ~11.5 years) and eight 777s (avg age ~21 years).

Writing off SIA's nineteen A380s avg age 8.3 years? Sounds very expensive.

Especially after they just finished spending $850M to redo the interiors: https://atwonline.com/air-transport/int ... s-new-a380

The huge four holers are the first to be sent to the desert and the last to leave (if ever). They have huge per-trip costs and high maintenance costs. They need to be full to make money, and it's hard to see that happen any time soon. It's going to be a very tempting target to cut.

In the CV19 news thread I posted a link saying IATA has pushed back its forecast of return to 2019 levels of air traffic to 2024. I bet SQ is doing the math to say "how much will it cost us to keep these things parked till 2024, keep core pilot and maintenance crews for it, etc?".


I don't challenge your facts or interpretation... I'm just suspicious that they can write-off all 19 for US$727 million. Your remarks on interior refurbishment just add to that. Interiors wouldn't have the same depreciation period as aircraft but surely extensive interior refurbs are depreciated, not expensed as occurred.

Commercial aircraft owners treat aircraft and related depreciation differently. For example, simulators are usually depreciated at around twice the rate of the aircraft.

Main categories are air frame, engines, simulators and interiors, all of which will have different depreciation rates. On the A380, when the landing gear is refurbished or replaced, this usually becomes a separate depreciation line item.

SQ air frame depreciation is usually over 15-20 years, depending on the aircraft type.

RR offer en enormous array of 'clever' engine maintenance deals, based on customer preference, including fixed price / fixed term out to 15 years or more. However, these can be expensive to amend or cancel, so rather more than just depreciation write offs in the formula. In times of COVID, if an airline is planning to put RR powered aircraft back into service, they are better off to fly them a little per month, rather than trigger storage, storage maintenance and re-start fees, unless taken off wing.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:34 pm

smartplane wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Especially after they just finished spending $850M to redo the interiors: https://atwonline.com/air-transport/int ... s-new-a380

The huge four holers are the first to be sent to the desert and the last to leave (if ever). They have huge per-trip costs and high maintenance costs. They need to be full to make money, and it's hard to see that happen any time soon. It's going to be a very tempting target to cut.

In the CV19 news thread I posted a link saying IATA has pushed back its forecast of return to 2019 levels of air traffic to 2024. I bet SQ is doing the math to say "how much will it cost us to keep these things parked till 2024, keep core pilot and maintenance crews for it, etc?".


I don't challenge your facts or interpretation... I'm just suspicious that they can write-off all 19 for US$727 million. Your remarks on interior refurbishment just add to that. Interiors wouldn't have the same depreciation period as aircraft but surely extensive interior refurbs are depreciated, not expensed as occurred.

Commercial aircraft owners treat aircraft and related depreciation differently. For example, simulators are usually depreciated at around twice the rate of the aircraft.

Main categories are air frame, engines, simulators and interiors, all of which will have different depreciation rates. On the A380, when the landing gear is refurbished or replaced, this usually becomes a separate depreciation line item.

SQ air frame depreciation is usually over 15-20 years, depending on the aircraft type.

RR offer en enormous array of 'clever' engine maintenance deals, based on customer preference, including fixed price / fixed term out to 15 years or more. However, these can be expensive to amend or cancel, so rather more than just depreciation write offs in the formula. In times of COVID, if an airline is planning to put RR powered aircraft back into service, they are better off to fly them a little per month, rather than trigger storage, storage maintenance and re-start fees, unless taken off wing.


Regarding engines, how much commonality is there between the RR Trent 900 (A380), 1000 (B788/B789/B78X), and XWB (A359), with all of those in the SQ/TR fleet?
 
avek00
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:35 pm

jfk777 wrote:


Avek00,

No I am not kidding but you make the silly assumption I meant "put an A380 in the air TODAY" instead of "WHEN IT MAKES SENSE".


SIA should put the A380 in the air when it makes sense I hope that provides enough clarification for you.


I did not make that assumption. More to the point, it will likely never make sense for SQ to operate the A380 in passenger service again.

Consider the following:

1. When SQ initially ordered and introduced the A380, it was still a standout carrier in terms of product, amenities, and marketing relative to legacy airlines in the USA, Europe, and especially its Asian neighbors. Those competitive advantages have largely withered away. Virtually all of SQ's key competitors around the world now offer (or will again offer, as soon as practicable) flat bed seats in longhaul Business Class, a longhaul Economy Class cabin with some bells and whistles, and acceptable levels of safety and operating reliability. The SQ A380 does not offer anything uniquely distinctive that budget-conscious or price-insensitive customers alike are willing to pay a premium relative to flying on any other plane.

2. Somewhat related to point #1, SQ long benefitted from rivals that were, quite frankly, weak players in their own home markets. As air travel markets slowly rebuild, that won't necessarily be the case. The lessened access to traffic flows mitigates the need for VLA type equipment in SQ's fleet.
Live life to the fullest.
 
jfk777
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:48 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
No I am not kidding but you make the silly assumption I meant "put an A380 in the air TODAY" instead of "WHEN IT MAKES SENSE".

But what you continue to seemingly not understand, is the increasing likelihood that "when it makes sense" might be never.

Hence so many airlines, including SQ, considering getting rid of A380s permanently.


LAX777LR,

You are right for some airlines it will be never return like Air France which was well on their way to ditching their A380 fleet before this Virus because of the cost for a new seats. They probably never made a profit with them anyways.

Who knows about Qatar and Etihad but Emirates seems to be on their way to putting a large part of their A380 back into the air. BA has 12 and they are being rotated to Manila for maintenance, so they look like they will be flying again to Singapore, LAX, SFO, and Johannesburg.

Qantas will probably return the 6 of 12 which have new interiors to flying since they just retired their 747 and they have only 14 787-9. Qantas doesn't have enough airplanes to fly their schedule with only 14 787-9's.

Singapore Airlines has enough 777 and A350 to fly where they need to fly as often as needed. Whether they return the A380 depends on economic factors, hopefully SIA will fly them to Heathrow again.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:09 pm

jfk777 wrote:
Singapore Airlines can sell enough First and Business Class seats at high enough prices to make the A380 work to Zurich, London & Tokyo. Do they need 19 A380 and the cost of putting the new First Suites into older planes, maybe some. SQ could do with 5 less A380, this is a plane they are closely associated with. A Singapore Airline where the two long haul planes are A359-900 & 77W seems boring. That day will arrive soon enough when the A380 wears out, lets enjoy another 7 to 10 years of it please.


The A380 at SQ, just like at most other airlines, is on the way out at this point. With global aviation not expected to reach 2019 levels until 2024 now (based on IATA), the A380 is a costly, white elephant in today's airline economics. I suspect the A359 and 77W will handle the bulk of SQ's long haul needs. The 787-10 and perhaps even some 788's and 789's repurposed from Scoot could become the backbone of regional flying, alongside the A330s. I could see SQ park and put into long term storage about 9 to 12 A380s to restart operations on routes that would need them if the situation were to dramatically shift, with the rest gone for good.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:29 pm

avek00 wrote:
Somewhat related to point #1, SQ long benefitted from rivals that were, quite frankly, weak players in their own home markets. As air travel markets slowly rebuild, that won't necessarily be the case. The lessened access to traffic flows mitigates the need for VLA type equipment in SQ's fleet.

I'd say the EK (and to a lesser extent, all of the ME3) will face the same as well.

EK functioned as sort of the de facto carrier of many developing nations in the Indian Ocean rim; it was the largest and most reliable network carrier there.

That may not always be the case, particularly as the likes of ET, KQ, and even some of the Indian carriers continue to grow and come into their own.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
PhilMcCrackin
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:29 pm

I'll be surprised if anyone other than EK, China Southern and BA return their A380s to the air and if you're someone like QF or LH, I'm skeptical that it makes much sense to bring them back and operate a micro fleet of them for one or two routes.
 
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:07 pm

I highly doubt SQ would completely get rid of the A380. Unlike the other A380 carries, not talking about EK, SQ can afford to charge a premium on the Singapore to London and Zurich routes as these are financial hubs. Also, they invested too much money in the cabin retrofits to get rid of it, especially with their new flag ship Suites. Like someone said easier, I see SQ trimming the A380 fleet size. Not completely retiring them.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:46 pm

blooc350 wrote:
I highly doubt SQ would completely get rid of the A380. Unlike the other A380 carries, not talking about EK, SQ can afford to charge a premium on the Singapore to London and Zurich routes as these are financial hubs. Also, they invested too much money in the cabin retrofits to get rid of it, especially with their new flag ship Suites. Like someone said easier, I see SQ trimming the A380 fleet size. Not completely retiring them.


Some might be coming up on a heavy check being due soon, particularly that intensive 12-year check...those are most likely to be retired. Thus far, I would suspect that only 9V-SKF has undergone a 12-year heavy check, and 9V-SKG/H are next, and are the other frames not completely standardized with other A380s. If any A380s leave the fleet quickly, I expect it would be SKG/H.
 
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:18 am

blooc350 wrote:
I highly doubt SQ would completely get rid of the A380. Unlike the other A380 carries, not talking about EK, SQ can afford to charge a premium on the Singapore to London and Zurich routes as these are financial hubs. Also, they invested too much money in the cabin retrofits to get rid of it, especially with their new flag ship Suites. Like someone said easier, I see SQ trimming the A380 fleet size. Not completely retiring them.


Financial services companies are also the best positioned organizations to operate ~100% remote / zero-travel indefinitely. Stringent business continuity and resilience plans are a requirement for every sizable financial institution. Also, since money is literally riding on their well-being, they're the last people who are going to play around with any risk of catching COVID on overseas trips.

Again, to the extent the SQ A380 fleet heavily caters to that traffic, it will be at a serious disadvantage in terms of a continued use case.
Live life to the fullest.
 
paulduwon
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:29 am

If the fleet restructure were to happen, what does that mean for their routes? Does that mean there’s a chance that the ultra long-haul routes will be discontinued once again?
I’m personally guessing some of their old fifth-freedom routes will have to return, maybe SFO/LAX-ICN.
 
Kent350787
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:25 am

LAX772LR wrote:
The implication is: keeping an inflexibly large airframe, entering its second decade of ops (in a nation that depreciates aircraft on a similar time scale), which has absolutely zero secondary market appeal, and increasing parts/MRO costs due to global fleet decrease....... for three-ish routes that can easily be addressed by 787/777/A350s, might not be the optimum idea.


Living in a city with slot restrictions and used to seeing 3xSQ A380 +772 daily, it does seem amazing that it may not be around when the need for capacity returns. But it truly doesn't make sense to keep it just for the routes mentioned.
S340/J31/146-300/F27/F50/Nord 262/Q100/200/E195/733/734/738/744/762/763/77W/788/789/320/321/332/333/345/359
 
VRHNM
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:49 am

na wrote:
The first 773, 9V-SYI, has been ferried to Goodyear/Arizona as we speak. Goodyear, thats a place most airliners never leave again. Surely the rest of the remaining regional 773s will follow soon. Thai is also in the process of outphasing the regional 777 and I wonder if CX will also retire this largely obsolete type shortterm.


As far as I know the 773A works well in CX's regional network. They took up another 5 773As from EK starting in 2017-18 though I'm not sure what they plan to do with this fleet now.
 
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zeke
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:03 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
Regarding engines, how much commonality is there between the RR Trent 900 (A380), 1000 (B788/B789/B78X), and XWB (A359), with all of those in the SQ/TR fleet?


Not a lot. There is some commonality in technology but very little by way of parts. The Trent XWB engine is made in Singapore.
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LAX772LR
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:22 am

paulduwon wrote:
If the fleet restructure were to happen, what does that mean for their routes? Does that mean there’s a chance that the ultra long-haul routes will be discontinued once again?

If so, it would be because of demand, not fleet.

SQ's 275tonne A359s can do SFO and LAX just fine. If they desire, most of their recent A359 deliveries and any future deliveries can be uprated to 280tonnes (same as the -ULRs) with a phone call + cheque to Airbus.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
AngMoh
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:38 am

zeke wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
Regarding engines, how much commonality is there between the RR Trent 900 (A380), 1000 (B788/B789/B78X), and XWB (A359), with all of those in the SQ/TR fleet?


Not a lot. There is some commonality in technology but very little by way of parts. The Trent XWB engine is made in Singapore.


The 787 engines are made in Singapore (Trent 1000). The XWB engines are made in the UK.
727 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739/ER 742 743 744/M 752 753 762 772 77E 773 77W 788 A300 A310 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A345 A346 A359 A35K A388 DC-9 DC-10 MD11 MD81 MD82 MD87 F70 ERJ145 E170 E175 E190 E195 ATR72 Q400 CRJ200 CRJ700 CRJ900 BAE146 RJ85
 
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SQ22
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:49 am

AngMoh wrote:
The 787 engines are made in Singapore (Trent 1000). The XWB engines are made in the UK.


As well as assembled in Germany:

Rolls-Royce begins production of Trent XWB engines at Dahlewitz site
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:42 am

LAX772LR wrote:
paulduwon wrote:
If the fleet restructure were to happen, what does that mean for their routes? Does that mean there’s a chance that the ultra long-haul routes will be discontinued once again?

If so, it would be because of demand, not fleet.

SQ's 275tonne A359s can do SFO and LAX just fine. If they desire, most of their recent A359 deliveries and any future deliveries can be uprated to 280tonnes (same as the -ULRs) with a phone call + cheque to Airbus.


They did SFO pre-COVID-19 alongside UA's B789s in the 253-seat configuration (the advertised range is with 325 passengers). LAX may be a bit problematic though.
 
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:25 pm

Kent350787 wrote:
Living in a city with slot restrictions and used to seeing 3xSQ A380 +772 daily, it does seem amazing that it may not be around when the need for capacity returns. But it truly doesn't make sense to keep it just for the routes mentioned.

SQ doesn't fly the A380 for mere prestige. We're not talking about MH or TG here. Every route they operated the A380 on, they did it because they needed it and honestly while I think this down turn might last a good 2 years I also see it all come back very quickly. In many of the markets that they operate the A380 on, additional frequencies to replace the A380's capacity is not really an ideal option. Every single one of those ~100 premium passengers wants to depart in the evening and arrive in the early morning. How feasible is it to obtain an additional early morning arrival slot at LHR? What about NRT? Or SYD?

aemoreira1981 wrote:
They did SFO pre-COVID-19 alongside UA's B789s in the 253-seat configuration (the advertised range is with 325 passengers). LAX may be a bit problematic though.

They're flying LAX-SIN with the "basic" A359, right now. Obviously they're probably not operating at very high loads
And on that note, the fact that SQ continues to fly this route should be an eye opener for all of those who questioned the viability of this route in good times.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:48 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
They did SFO pre-COVID-19 alongside UA's B789s in the 253-seat configuration (the advertised range is with 325 passengers). LAX may be a bit problematic though.

SFO had both the standard A359 flying daily, and the -ULR flying 3xWk.

As has already been mentioned multiple times, a standard A359 can do SIN-LAX just fine, even at 5tonnes below their maximum optional MTOW.
They also substituted on the route prior to all -ULRs being delivered, and yes SQ did sell the extra seats.

Heck, they're doing it now: LAX nonstop SQ037/038 has continued since COVID began, but hasn't been a -ULR since March.



airbazar wrote:
They're flying LAX-SIN with the "basic" A359, right now.

:checkmark:

And funnily enough, that actually offers them an advantage:
Cargo is still going strong, and SQ's freighter fleet is stretched to the max worldwide, trying to make up for the decline in belly capacity... so having the standard A359 being the only nonstop connection to SIN from this side of the world, offers expanded cargo capacity via use of the forward cargo bay; whereas that's not an option on the -ULRs, since that hold is sealed.


airbazar wrote:
And on that note, the fact that SQ continues to fly this route should be an eye opener for all of those who questioned the viability of this route in good times.

:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Kent350787
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Sun Aug 02, 2020 12:24 am

airbazar wrote:
SQ doesn't fly the A380 for mere prestige. We're not talking about MH or TG here. Every route they operated the A380 on, they did it because they needed it and honestly while I think this down turn might last a good 2 years I also see it all come back very quickly. In many of the markets that they operate the A380 on, additional frequencies to replace the A380's capacity is not really an ideal option. Every single one of those ~100 premium passengers wants to depart in the evening and arrive in the early morning. How feasible is it to obtain an additional early morning arrival slot at LHR? What about NRT? Or SYD?


I suppose I was making the same point, but perhaps more obliquely. There are still ports that the A380 was pitched for where, with pre-COVID demand, it is entirely appropriate. SYD has plenty of overall capacity, but slot restrictions morning and evening. Until the ME3, SIN, and to a lesser extent HKG, were SYD's hubs for travel to Europe and to Asia more broadly. The SQ midday departure was the only non-A380 departure, I assume due to low demand. Apart from SQ, SYD was seeing up to 10 other W/NW A380 departures daily at the beginning of this year, plus 3 others to the US, with good load factors on all.

I agree that 77X may not be the ideal option, but it may become the only option if demand takes several years to pick up again.
S340/J31/146-300/F27/F50/Nord 262/Q100/200/E195/733/734/738/744/762/763/77W/788/789/320/321/332/333/345/359
 
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Sun Aug 02, 2020 1:40 am

Kent350787 wrote:
airbazar wrote:
SQ doesn't fly the A380 for mere prestige. We're not talking about MH or TG here. Every route they operated the A380 on, they did it because they needed it and honestly while I think this down turn might last a good 2 years I also see it all come back very quickly. In many of the markets that they operate the A380 on, additional frequencies to replace the A380's capacity is not really an ideal option. Every single one of those ~100 premium passengers wants to depart in the evening and arrive in the early morning. How feasible is it to obtain an additional early morning arrival slot at LHR? What about NRT? Or SYD?


I suppose I was making the same point, but perhaps more obliquely. There are still ports that the A380 was pitched for where, with pre-COVID demand, it is entirely appropriate. SYD has plenty of overall capacity, but slot restrictions morning and evening. Until the ME3, SIN, and to a lesser extent HKG, were SYD's hubs for travel to Europe and to Asia more broadly. The SQ midday departure was the only non-A380 departure, I assume due to low demand. Apart from SQ, SYD was seeing up to 10 other W/NW A380 departures daily at the beginning of this year, plus 3 others to the US, with good load factors on all.

I agree that 77X may not be the ideal option, but it may become the only option if demand takes several years to pick up again.


SQ had 5 daily SYD services, only 2 have ever been A380s, those are the 2 overnight services ex SIN and the midday and afternoon service ex SYD, the early morning ex SYD was an A380 initially several years ago. They were running 3 daylight 77W services ex SIN.

SQ are one of the few where the A380 makes sense, would they have ordered more if not for EK? There are routes for SQ where the A380 made sense, will it still post Covid? And what will be their long term minimum fleet size for the A380? 5 are 2-3 years old and 3 from the second batch have been refitted. It will be interesting to see if they invest in keeping these 8 at the least.
 
AngMoh
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Sun Aug 02, 2020 11:31 am

LAX772LR wrote:
airbazar wrote:
They're flying LAX-SIN with the "basic" A359, right now.

:checkmark:

And funnily enough, that actually offers them an advantage:
Cargo is still going strong, and SQ's freighter fleet is stretched to the max worldwide, trying to make up for the decline in belly capacity... so having the standard A359 being the only nonstop connection to SIN from this side of the world, offers expanded cargo capacity via use of the forward cargo bay; whereas that's not an option on the -ULRs, since that hold is sealed.


airbazar wrote:
And on that note, the fact that SQ continues to fly this route should be an eye opener for all of those who questioned the viability of this route in good times.

:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:


They are flying SIN-LAX for passengers as a "repatriation route". It is the only way for Singaporeans to come home from the US (maybe the alternative is Qatar, but SQ is the safe option). Passenger loads are very light. The son of my colleague took LAX-SIN coming originally from Houston and there were only 22 pax on the flight. That said, the A359 must be doing well with cargo. In the beginning, there were a few 77W routes to LHR/ZRH/NRT. Now long distance (Europe, US, South Africa, India) is A359 while Australia/Asia-Pacific is mix of A359 with 787-10. You hardly see any SQ 77W in the air. While everyone assumes that the 77W is the cargo king, it seems that for SQ the increased cargo capabilities of the 77W do not offset the extra costs.
727 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739/ER 742 743 744/M 752 753 762 772 77E 773 77W 788 A300 A310 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A345 A346 A359 A35K A388 DC-9 DC-10 MD11 MD81 MD82 MD87 F70 ERJ145 E170 E175 E190 E195 ATR72 Q400 CRJ200 CRJ700 CRJ900 BAE146 RJ85
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Sun Aug 02, 2020 12:39 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
No I am not kidding but you make the silly assumption I meant "put an A380 in the air TODAY" instead of "WHEN IT MAKES SENSE".

But what you continue to seemingly not understand, is the increasing likelihood that "when it makes sense" might be never.

Hence so many airlines, including SQ, considering getting rid of A380s permanently.


I was of the opinion that the A380 never made sense, especially considering the bas model was really a shrink of their goal of an A380-900 that would have almost twice the capacity of the 747-400 and would be useful on a handful of routes where an airline would schedule two 747-400's within an hour of each other. The A380 was built due to Airbus management's 747 envy in the 80's. By the time Airbus got their 747 killer into commercial service, the 747 was already on it's way out. Large twins were already making the 747 nonviable even with one last makeover. Now the latest generation of large twin engined wide bodies have a CASM lower than the A380 and have more belly cargo capacity.
 
brilondon
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Sun Aug 02, 2020 12:57 pm

I have never understood the fascination of a.netters with "belly" cargo. If it's such a money maker, why do they even bother flying people?
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: SIA to review fleet plan; future of A380 in limbo

Sun Aug 02, 2020 4:45 pm

Could the SQ really reitire a few year old A380s?

That would be very supprising. SQ should also merge with Skoot.

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