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777ER
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Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:06 pm

Welcome to the August 2020 edition. Link to July 2020 edition viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1448395
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Fuling
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:16 pm

From the July thread re VA A330 on MEL-BNE, it has been corrected and will be operated by B737 only.

https://www.routesonline.com/track/NRwi ... Jtcg7vfAL/
 
melpax
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:57 pm

Looks like stage 4 restrictions could be announced for Melbourne tomorrow, with the rest of Victoria looking like being placed back into stage 3.

At this rate, unrestricted interstate travel from Victoria this side of Christmas looks very doubful....

https://www.theage.com.au/national/vict ... 55hm3.html
Essendon - Whatever it takes......
 
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a36001
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:27 pm

melpax wrote:
Looks like stage 4 restrictions could be announced for Melbourne tomorrow, with the rest of Victoria looking like being placed back into stage 3.

At this rate, unrestricted interstate travel from Victoria this side of Christmas looks very doubful....

https://www.theage.com.au/national/vict ... 55hm3.html


It does look like we are heading that way! Not happy Dan!

I don't see any returning operations for Qantas domestically until we are into 2021, and as for Virgin? good luck!

Wake me up in six weeks! :zzz: :zzz: :zzz:
 
x1234
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:26 pm

Any ETA on when restrictions on Sydney, Melbourne & Brisbane end? Is AU successfully controlling the coronavirus? I have Chinese and American friends that want to visit.
 
Sopwith
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:58 pm

Well when China and America have no cases of Corona virus they will be most welcome.
 
anstar
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 2:58 am

The way things are going it will be 2022 before our international borders are opened up.
 
Fuling
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:39 am

Sopwith wrote:
Well when China and America have no cases of Corona virus they will be most welcome.


It's kinda hard to anticipate. With China at 748 active cases and Australia at 6891, it's more likely that China won't be welcoming Australians in. However, Japan (9319 active) has suggested travel to/from China will recommence in August or September, so who knows. Either way I'm sure airlines will be happy to get people on planes again.
 
timtam
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 7:19 am

x1234 wrote:
Any ETA on when restrictions on Sydney, Melbourne & Brisbane end? Is AU successfully controlling the coronavirus? I have Chinese and American friends that want to visit.


Your best option would be to go visit them and to make it a one way ticket.

Melbourne will be in lock-down till the end of September. Possibly border restrictions on interstate travel with Victoria might re-open in December for Christmas. However experts are saying Melbourne may be in Level 4 lock-down until December.

Its touch and go in some of the other states - just keeping it under control - but its a close thing and could escalate out of control very quickly.
 
xiaotung
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 7:36 am

Fuling wrote:
Sopwith wrote:
Well when China and America have no cases of Corona virus they will be most welcome.


It's kinda hard to anticipate. With China at 748 active cases and Australia at 6891, it's more likely that China won't be welcoming Australians in. However, Japan (9319 active) has suggested travel to/from China will recommence in August or September, so who knows. Either way I'm sure airlines will be happy to get people on planes again.


With China and Australia both going the elimination way, can't see either country opening borders to anyone in the foreseeable future.
 
melpax
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 7:43 am

x1234 wrote:
Any ETA on when restrictions on Sydney, Melbourne & Brisbane end? Is AU successfully controlling the coronavirus? I have Chinese and American friends that want to visit.


When travel between states is severely restricted, and Melbourne is cut off from the rest of Victoria, any lifting of international travel restrictions is some time off, looking like 2022 at least from what others have said....
Essendon - Whatever it takes......
 
melpax
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 7:52 am

Melbourne will be placed into stage 4 lockdown from 8PM tonight, for 6 weeks ATM.

Public Transport restricted
Curfew in Melbourne Metro area between 8PM-5AM, only exceptions are for work, & medical and compassionate reasons
Only 1 person per household allowed out of home to shop, within a 5KM radius of your home
Only allowed out of home to excercise for 1 hour per day, within a 5KM radius of home, no groups of more than 2 people.
Schools back to remote learning for all year levels
Weddings banned in Melbourne from Wednesday.
A 'state of disaster' has been declared this afternoon, allowing for the suspension of certain acts of parliament, and additional powers being granted to the police
The Premier has said that there will be no leniency in enforcing the lockdown & social distancing regulations.
Regional Victoria to be placed back into stage 3 lockdown from Wednesday.
Further restrictions on businesses to be announced tomorrow.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/vict ... 55hq7.html
Essendon - Whatever it takes......
 
zkncj
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:56 am

I feel for all the Melbourne based airline crew, the near-term future for them must not be looking great. Assuming they will all be stood down again, after finally starting to get back into the skies.

With the current Victoria issues must be having an decent impact on the restart of domestic travel for QF/JQ/VA.
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 11:27 am

zkncj wrote:
I feel for all the Melbourne based airline crew, the near-term future for them must not be looking great. Assuming they will all be stood down again, after finally starting to get back into the skies.

With the current Victoria issues must be having an decent impact on the restart of domestic travel for QF/JQ/VA.


Given the scale of operations that all 3 carriers have in MEL, it would be a huge dent in plans. Add to that the Qld govt closing their border to people from Greater Sydney, and ongoing border restrictions in many cases, it’s a mess.

There is no way that anyone can book with confidence with changes happening on a daily basis, and any hope for a recovery is some way off.
 
TN486T
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 12:28 pm

So, with all that is happening right now, what is the chances of success for virgin mk2? shall they even get off the ground?
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 10:40 pm

Both airlines as well as the airports are all under severe stress. VA2 are likely to jettison more fleet than originally planned. QF may be forced to mortgage any remaining unencumbered assets and are rumoured to be considering sending the parked 787s (both QF and JQ) to the desert as they will not be back flying before July next year. The JQ 787s may be in the desert for years.

The airports are likely to seek additional funding from shareholders and will suspend any uncontracted capex until the situation recovers. For example MEL will finish the new T2 arrivals hall but don't expect to hear anything else on the planned rebuild of T2 for the next few years.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
md83ftw
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 12:48 am

Alliance Aviation have announced to the ASX this morning that they are acquiring 14 E190 aircraft and spares plus options for further aircraft from Azorra Aviation in the US for USD$79.4 million. From the announcement:

https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/d ... d=02262190

-The purchase of 14 Embraer E190 aircraft including a significant package of related inventory, ground support equipment, tooling and training devices;
-The purchase of six spare General Electric CF34 engines;
-An option to acquire a further five E190 aircraft;
-An option to acquire a full flight simulator and related training equipment;
-Aircraft will be delivered progressively over eight months commencing in September
2020;
-Financial settlement will be matched against aircraft deliveries.
- All aircraft will undergo repainting with Alliance livery, prior to delivery.


Seems like a terrific deal with an effective per unit price of USD$5.7 mil a unit, and a significant discount to our last E190 valuation datapoint provided by LAXIntl where $10.5-$32 million was the per frame valuation.... viewtopic.php?t=1440991

These must be some rather tired Embraers, or demand really has collapsed!
 
benjjk
Posts: 388
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 1:37 am

md83ftw wrote:
Alliance Aviation have announced to the ASX this morning that they are acquiring 14 E190 aircraft and spares plus options for further aircraft from Azorra Aviation in the US for USD$79.4 million. From the announcement:

https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/d ... d=02262190

-The purchase of 14 Embraer E190 aircraft including a significant package of related inventory, ground support equipment, tooling and training devices;
-The purchase of six spare General Electric CF34 engines;
-An option to acquire a further five E190 aircraft;
-An option to acquire a full flight simulator and related training equipment;
-Aircraft will be delivered progressively over eight months commencing in September
2020;
-Financial settlement will be matched against aircraft deliveries.
- All aircraft will undergo repainting with Alliance livery, prior to delivery.


Seems like a terrific deal with an effective per unit price of USD$5.7 mil a unit, and a significant discount to our last E190 valuation datapoint provided by LAXIntl where $10.5-$32 million was the per frame valuation.... viewtopic.php?t=1440991

These must be some rather tired Embraers, or demand really has collapsed!


Really terrific news in an otherwise bleak time. Alliance really have capitalized on the opportunities brought by COVID.
 
zkncj
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Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 2:01 am

md83ftw wrote:
Alliance Aviation have announced to the ASX this morning that they are acquiring 14 E190 aircraft and spares plus options for further aircraft from Azorra Aviation in the US for USD$79.4 million. From the announcement:

https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/d ... d=02262190

-The purchase of 14 Embraer E190 aircraft including a significant package of related inventory, ground support equipment, tooling and training devices;
-The purchase of six spare General Electric CF34 engines;
-An option to acquire a further five E190 aircraft;
-An option to acquire a full flight simulator and related training equipment;
-Aircraft will be delivered progressively over eight months commencing in September
2020;
-Financial settlement will be matched against aircraft deliveries.
- All aircraft will undergo repainting with Alliance livery, prior to delivery.


Allot the early of the E190s would reaching the 10 year old mark, and then COVID hits probably knocking an huge amount of the value out of them.

The end must be near for Alliance F100 then, wonder if QFLink will purchase them for parts.

Seems like a terrific deal with an effective per unit price of USD$5.7 mil a unit, and a significant discount to our last E190 valuation datapoint provided by LAXIntl where $10.5-$32 million was the per frame valuation.... viewtopic.php?t=1440991

These must be some rather tired Embraers, or demand really has collapsed!
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 2:23 am

benjjk wrote:
md83ftw wrote:
Alliance Aviation have announced to the ASX this morning that they are acquiring 14 E190 aircraft and spares plus options for further aircraft from Azorra Aviation in the US for USD$79.4 million. From the announcement:

https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/d ... d=02262190

-The purchase of 14 Embraer E190 aircraft including a significant package of related inventory, ground support equipment, tooling and training devices;
-The purchase of six spare General Electric CF34 engines;
-An option to acquire a further five E190 aircraft;
-An option to acquire a full flight simulator and related training equipment;
-Aircraft will be delivered progressively over eight months commencing in September
2020;
-Financial settlement will be matched against aircraft deliveries.
- All aircraft will undergo repainting with Alliance livery, prior to delivery.


Seems like a terrific deal with an effective per unit price of USD$5.7 mil a unit, and a significant discount to our last E190 valuation datapoint provided by LAXIntl where $10.5-$32 million was the per frame valuation.... viewtopic.php?t=1440991

These must be some rather tired Embraers, or demand really has collapsed!


Really terrific news in an otherwise bleak time. Alliance really have capitalized on the opportunities brought by COVID.

Indeed congratulations to them.

An intersting choice given a lot of carriers are stating these birds are costly to operate (specifically engine overhaul an awful price to pay). Interesting to hear how these planes will perform with Alliance.

Michael
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 2:57 am

eamondzhang wrote:
benjjk wrote:
md83ftw wrote:
Alliance Aviation have announced to the ASX this morning that they are acquiring 14 E190 aircraft and spares plus options for further aircraft from Azorra Aviation in the US for USD$79.4 million. From the announcement:

https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/d ... d=02262190



Seems like a terrific deal with an effective per unit price of USD$5.7 mil a unit, and a significant discount to our last E190 valuation datapoint provided by LAXIntl where $10.5-$32 million was the per frame valuation.... viewtopic.php?t=1440991

These must be some rather tired Embraers, or demand really has collapsed!


Really terrific news in an otherwise bleak time. Alliance really have capitalized on the opportunities brought by COVID.

Indeed congratulations to them.

An intersting choice given a lot of carriers are stating these birds are costly to operate (specifically engine overhaul an awful price to pay). Interesting to hear how these planes will perform with Alliance.

Michael

Pre-owned E190s are the logical replacements for the ageing F100s and already used by Cobham for FIFO operations. They do have a reputation as being expensive to maintain but, with such a low entry price, it is easy to see why Alliance have gone down this path. Even if they are more expensive to maintain, it is likely the decreased fuel burn compared with the F100s will largely offset this.
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Bluebird191
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 3:17 am

How would the maintenance costs of an E190 compare to the F100? Both are comparatively sized aircraft, could the E190 be cheaper for maintenance and have better availability and supply of spare parts?
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 3:32 am

tullamarine wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
benjjk wrote:

Really terrific news in an otherwise bleak time. Alliance really have capitalized on the opportunities brought by COVID.

Indeed congratulations to them.

An intersting choice given a lot of carriers are stating these birds are costly to operate (specifically engine overhaul an awful price to pay). Interesting to hear how these planes will perform with Alliance.

Michael

Pre-owned E190s are the logical replacements for the ageing F100s and already used by Cobham for FIFO operations. They do have a reputation as being expensive to maintain but, with such a low entry price, it is easy to see why Alliance have gone down this path. Even if they are more expensive to maintain, it is likely the decreased fuel burn compared with the F100s will largely offset this.

Well thing is Cobham only had one and from earlier Aussie thread apparently E190's take off performance in hot condition is also potentially down in the drain - and I have not factored in runway factors yet

But yeah as you mentioned likely other areas (low acquisition to begin with) can largely offset this disadvantage

Or we might also see them pushing into new markets/replacing contract work with Qantas/Virgin with E190s potentially....?

Michael
 
zkncj
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 3:49 am

eamondzhang wrote:

Or we might also see them pushing into new markets/replacing contract work with Qantas/Virgin with E190s potentially....?

Michael


That or contract work for REX? with REX's new proposed jet services in 2021.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 4:26 am

zkncj wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:

Or we might also see them pushing into new markets/replacing contract work with Qantas/Virgin with E190s potentially....?

Michael


That or contract work for REX? with REX's new proposed jet services in 2021.


REX was looking at loans/dry leases for A320/737s from memory. IMHO, I suspect the E190s may replace the older F100s (whilst still keeping most of the F100 fleet).
 
ABpositive
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 5:01 am

zkncj wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:

Or we might also see them pushing into new markets/replacing contract work with Qantas/Virgin with E190s potentially....?

Michael


That or contract work for REX? with REX's new proposed jet services in 2021.


I think REX are at an interesting point. Their SAAB fleet is aging, yet they are looking to invest in jets and compete more directly with Qantas/Virgin. Will this stretch them too thin and neglect their core business? It is a buyer's market at the moment, so perhaps the regional fleet could be strengthened instead. Australian domestic market is expected to recover before international, so they could consolidate their position in the regional market.
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 5:13 am

The NT will provide $3.5 million in funding to ASP boneyard to take capacity to 100 aircraft. According the article there is 44 aircraft in storage at ASP, i assume that doesn’t include the 3 CX aircraft that have arrived since Friday

https://australianaviation.com.au/2020/ ... -boneyard/
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grh
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 6:59 am

The Aus is reporting that the Alliance E-190's were previously operated by COPA, Brazil
 
Kent350787
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 7:01 am

grh wrote:
The Aus is reporting that the Alliance E-190's were previously operated by COPA, Brazil


14 currently parked would match up with that - but I wonder where the 5 options would come from?
S340/J31/146-300/F27/F50/Nord 262/Q100/200/E195/733/734/738/744/762/763/77W/788/789/320/321/332/333/345/359
 
LTEN11
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Joined: Sun Jun 14, 2020 10:09 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 7:10 am

grh wrote:
The Aus is reporting that the Alliance E-190's were previously operated by COPA, Brazil


COPA is actually from Panama, based in Panama City.
 
anstar
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 7:34 am

ABpositive wrote:
zkncj wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:

Or we might also see them pushing into new markets/replacing contract work with Qantas/Virgin with E190s potentially....?

Michael


That or contract work for REX? with REX's new proposed jet services in 2021.


I think REX are at an interesting point. Their SAAB fleet is aging, yet they are looking to invest in jets and compete more directly with Qantas/Virgin. Will this stretch them too thin and neglect their core business? It is a buyer's market at the moment, so perhaps the regional fleet could be strengthened instead. Australian domestic market is expected to recover before international, so they could consolidate their position in the regional market.


I believe they also said they were getting ATR's to replace some of the SAABS??
 
Kent350787
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Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 7:37 am

anstar wrote:
ABpositive wrote:
zkncj wrote:

That or contract work for REX? with REX's new proposed jet services in 2021.


I think REX are at an interesting point. Their SAAB fleet is aging, yet they are looking to invest in jets and compete more directly with Qantas/Virgin. Will this stretch them too thin and neglect their core business? It is a buyer's market at the moment, so perhaps the regional fleet could be strengthened instead. Australian domestic market is expected to recover before international, so they could consolidate their position in the regional market.


I believe they also said they were getting ATR's to replace some of the SAABS??


They were speaking with ATR about that possibility. No commitments. You'd expect that they'll be able to get good rates on 72s, probably even -600, if they bide their time. I can't see them going for new-builds.
S340/J31/146-300/F27/F50/Nord 262/Q100/200/E195/733/734/738/744/762/763/77W/788/789/320/321/332/333/345/359
 
LTEN11
Posts: 54
Joined: Sun Jun 14, 2020 10:09 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 7:46 am

Kent350787 wrote:
anstar wrote:
ABpositive wrote:

I think REX are at an interesting point. Their SAAB fleet is aging, yet they are looking to invest in jets and compete more directly with Qantas/Virgin. Will this stretch them too thin and neglect their core business? It is a buyer's market at the moment, so perhaps the regional fleet could be strengthened instead. Australian domestic market is expected to recover before international, so they could consolidate their position in the regional market.


I believe they also said they were getting ATR's to replace some of the SAABS??


They were speaking with ATR about that possibility. No commitments. You'd expect that they'll be able to get good rates on 72s, probably even -600, if they bide their time. I can't see them going for new-builds.


The 72 would be overkill on their regional routes, the 42 would be a better fit, but still a step up from the SF340.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3875
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 7:48 am

Kent350787 wrote:

They were speaking with ATR about that possibility. No commitments. You'd expect that they'll be able to get good rates on 72s, probably even -600, if they bide their time. I can't see them going for new-builds.


NZ still have 7x ATR 72-500s sitting around in NSN/CHC waiting for an buyer, surly they will be going to an steal soon. I think all of the VA 72-500s have finally gone? some spent an while in NSN waiting for an new home.

VA's 72-600s could be up for grabs though for REX, would be an bonus of being able to pickup all of VA's ground equipment already in Australia for them.
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2538
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:02 am

zkncj wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:

They were speaking with ATR about that possibility. No commitments. You'd expect that they'll be able to get good rates on 72s, probably even -600, if they bide their time. I can't see them going for new-builds.


NZ still have 7x ATR 72-500s sitting around in NSN/CHC waiting for an buyer, surly they will be going to an steal soon. I think all of the VA 72-500s have finally gone? some spent an while in NSN waiting for an new home.

VA's 72-600s could be up for grabs though for REX, would be an bonus of being able to pickup all of VA's ground equipment already in Australia for them.

As has been said, ATR-72s are way too big for REX's current network. They would be more likely to look for secondhand ATR-42s
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
Kent350787
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:29 am

The issue is that there aren’t a lot of 42s around, so 72s are likely to have a similar lease cost. This may address the apparent “wasted capacity” of an upguqge.
S340/J31/146-300/F27/F50/Nord 262/Q100/200/E195/733/734/738/744/762/763/77W/788/789/320/321/332/333/345/359
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 11:37 pm

Kent350787 wrote:
The issue is that there aren’t a lot of 42s around, so 72s are likely to have a similar lease cost. This may address the apparent “wasted capacity” of an upguqge.


Its not so much the capacity that isnt being used, but the underlying cost to run a 72 vs a 42 which will be the problem.
 
F100Flyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:12 am

zkncj wrote:
md83ftw wrote:

The end must be near for Alliance F100 then, wonder if QFLink will purchase them for parts.

These must be some rather tired Embraers, or demand really has collapsed!


These aircraft have a lot of life in them yet. First flew in ~1992, but their hours are very low seeing as they sit at many mine sites all day before returning in the afternoon. Their ASX release a couple of months ago stated they initiated the capital raising to purchase aircraft to fill the gaps that they were expecting VA to leave.

And yes we all know demand has collapsed, no matter the size of aircraft. Alliance seems to be a very well run, organised business.
 
ben175
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:31 am

Will the E90s be suitable for all minesites in WA? I thought some of the runways are more suited to the robust F100s.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:58 am

qf2220 wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
The issue is that there aren’t a lot of 42s around, so 72s are likely to have a similar lease cost. This may address the apparent “wasted capacity” of an upguqge.


Its not so much the capacity that isnt being used, but the underlying cost to run a 72 vs a 42 which will be the problem.

Apart from fuel burn of the larger ATR72, it would also require an additional flight attendant for every flight whereas ATR42 supports a single F/A. REX's route structure is too marginal to support this sudden growth so an ATR72 is not really an option.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
smi0006
Posts: 2567
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:13 am

ABpositive wrote:
zkncj wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:

Or we might also see them pushing into new markets/replacing contract work with Qantas/Virgin with E190s potentially....?

Michael


That or contract work for REX? with REX's new proposed jet services in 2021.


I think REX are at an interesting point. Their SAAB fleet is aging, yet they are looking to invest in jets and compete more directly with Qantas/Virgin. Will this stretch them too thin and neglect their core business? It is a buyer's market at the moment, so perhaps the regional fleet could be strengthened instead. Australian domestic market is expected to recover before international, so they could consolidate their position in the regional market.


Is Rex still pushing ahead with this plan? Haven’t heard any further details, but still so many unknowns. I suppose they could time it right as VA will be struggling over the next few months accruing debit, as opposed to things opening up now giving VA 8months to rebuild ahead of a ZL relaunch.

Shame QF bought into Alliance, I’d have thought and Alliance/Rex Merger would have been a good base to build scheduled jet services off, especially with some E190s joining the fleet.

I wonder in this depressed used market, could we see QFLink pick up some Used 717s? Seems like even the 738 maybe a bit big for some routes as things slowly recover.
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2538
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:19 am

smi0006 wrote:
ABpositive wrote:
zkncj wrote:

That or contract work for REX? with REX's new proposed jet services in 2021.


I think REX are at an interesting point. Their SAAB fleet is aging, yet they are looking to invest in jets and compete more directly with Qantas/Virgin. Will this stretch them too thin and neglect their core business? It is a buyer's market at the moment, so perhaps the regional fleet could be strengthened instead. Australian domestic market is expected to recover before international, so they could consolidate their position in the regional market.


Is Rex still pushing ahead with this plan? Haven’t heard any further details, but still so many unknowns. I suppose they could time it right as VA will be struggling over the next few months accruing debit, as opposed to things opening up now giving VA 8months to rebuild ahead of a ZL relaunch.

Shame QF bought into Alliance, I’d have thought and Alliance/Rex Merger would have been a good base to build scheduled jet services off, especially with some E190s joining the fleet.

I wonder in this depressed used market, could we see QFLink pick up some Used 717s? Seems like even the 738 maybe a bit big for some routes as things slowly recover.

QF purchase into Alliance is pretty much stalled. They are unlikely to be allowed to go beyond their existing 20% or join board. At some point, they have to consider if this is good use of capital especially as they continue to lose amazing amounts of money in their core business. Maybe cashing out makes more sense.

REX was trying to get some government sweetheart deal for their expansion which won't happen as it is too politically hot. I suspect the whole mainline domestic plan will be deferred....indefinitely.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
An767
Posts: 283
Joined: Sun Apr 17, 2016 4:21 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:37 am

tullamarine wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
ABpositive wrote:

I think REX are at an interesting point. Their SAAB fleet is aging, yet they are looking to invest in jets and compete more directly with Qantas/Virgin. Will this stretch them too thin and neglect their core business? It is a buyer's market at the moment, so perhaps the regional fleet could be strengthened instead. Australian domestic market is expected to recover before international, so they could consolidate their position in the regional market.


Is Rex still pushing ahead with this plan? Haven’t heard any further details, but still so many unknowns. I suppose they could time it right as VA will be struggling over the next few months accruing debit, as opposed to things opening up now giving VA 8months to rebuild ahead of a ZL relaunch.

Shame QF bought into Alliance, I’d have thought and Alliance/Rex Merger would have been a good base to build scheduled jet services off, especially with some E190s joining the fleet.

I wonder in this depressed used market, could we see QFLink pick up some Used 717s? Seems like even the 738 maybe a bit big for some routes as things slowly recover.

QF purchase into Alliance is pretty much stalled. They are unlikely to be allowed to go beyond their existing 20% or join board. At some point, they have to consider if this is good use of capital especially as they continue to lose amazing amounts of money in their core business. Maybe cashing out makes more sense.

REX was trying to get some government sweetheart deal for their expansion which won't happen as it is too politically hot. I suspect the whole mainline domestic plan will be deferred....indefinitely.


Hoping that the QF & Alliance thing grows a bit and they put some of these on the BNE EMD route. Sick of the dash 8's on the run . Alliance used to operate into EMD with F100's for Virgin. Cant see Virgin coming back soon, tried to book staff flights on them nothing through Oct at this stage .
AN767
If its got wings put me on it. If it floats on water take it away
 
BNEFlyer
Posts: 255
Joined: Fri Oct 27, 2006 6:41 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 4:19 am

An767 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
smi0006 wrote:

Is Rex still pushing ahead with this plan? Haven’t heard any further details, but still so many unknowns. I suppose they could time it right as VA will be struggling over the next few months accruing debit, as opposed to things opening up now giving VA 8months to rebuild ahead of a ZL relaunch.

Shame QF bought into Alliance, I’d have thought and Alliance/Rex Merger would have been a good base to build scheduled jet services off, especially with some E190s joining the fleet.

I wonder in this depressed used market, could we see QFLink pick up some Used 717s? Seems like even the 738 maybe a bit big for some routes as things slowly recover.

QF purchase into Alliance is pretty much stalled. They are unlikely to be allowed to go beyond their existing 20% or join board. At some point, they have to consider if this is good use of capital especially as they continue to lose amazing amounts of money in their core business. Maybe cashing out makes more sense.

REX was trying to get some government sweetheart deal for their expansion which won't happen as it is too politically hot. I suspect the whole mainline domestic plan will be deferred....indefinitely.


Hoping that the QF & Alliance thing grows a bit and they put some of these on the BNE EMD route. Sick of the dash 8's on the run . Alliance used to operate into EMD with F100's for Virgin. Cant see Virgin coming back soon, tried to book staff flights on them nothing through Oct at this stage .
AN767

Alliance are flying a mix of the F70 and F100 at the moment.
 
eamondzhang
Posts: 1802
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 8:23 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:41 am

An767 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
smi0006 wrote:

Is Rex still pushing ahead with this plan? Haven’t heard any further details, but still so many unknowns. I suppose they could time it right as VA will be struggling over the next few months accruing debit, as opposed to things opening up now giving VA 8months to rebuild ahead of a ZL relaunch.

Shame QF bought into Alliance, I’d have thought and Alliance/Rex Merger would have been a good base to build scheduled jet services off, especially with some E190s joining the fleet.

I wonder in this depressed used market, could we see QFLink pick up some Used 717s? Seems like even the 738 maybe a bit big for some routes as things slowly recover.

QF purchase into Alliance is pretty much stalled. They are unlikely to be allowed to go beyond their existing 20% or join board. At some point, they have to consider if this is good use of capital especially as they continue to lose amazing amounts of money in their core business. Maybe cashing out makes more sense.

REX was trying to get some government sweetheart deal for their expansion which won't happen as it is too politically hot. I suspect the whole mainline domestic plan will be deferred....indefinitely.


Hoping that the QF & Alliance thing grows a bit and they put some of these on the BNE EMD route. Sick of the dash 8's on the run . Alliance used to operate into EMD with F100's for Virgin. Cant see Virgin coming back soon, tried to book staff flights on them nothing through Oct at this stage .
AN767

Alliance also flew F100 for QF on BNE-EMD route - I once did a BNE-EMD-BNE return in 2014 to get both ATR and F100 on my logbook. VA was flying ATR at the time when QF does the F100 with Alliance. I had 35 mins to transfer between the services but wind enroute means I actually had 25 on the day and was the last to board the F100 on my return!

Michael
 
Kent350787
Posts: 1418
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 6:03 am

tullamarine wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
The issue is that there aren’t a lot of 42s around, so 72s are likely to have a similar lease cost. This may address the apparent “wasted capacity” of an upguqge.


Its not so much the capacity that isnt being used, but the underlying cost to run a 72 vs a 42 which will be the problem.

Apart from fuel burn of the larger ATR72, it would also require an additional flight attendant for every flight whereas ATR42 supports a single F/A. REX's route structure is too marginal to support this sudden growth so an ATR72 is not really an option.


Fair point, but pre-COVID there were almost 4 times as many 72s as 42s in use. Although a couple of airlines had chosen the 42 to replace SAABs, Rex has been a lease em cheap and run em hard airline. New order 42s just don't seem to fit with its business model unless the price is really good.
S340/J31/146-300/F27/F50/Nord 262/Q100/200/E195/733/734/738/744/762/763/77W/788/789/320/321/332/333/345/359
 
Kent350787
Posts: 1418
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 6:11 am

smi0006 wrote:
[
I wonder in this depressed used market, could we see QFLink pick up some Used 717s? Seems like even the 738 maybe a bit big for some routes as things slowly recover.


There are only 4 717 operators. Volotea was starting to progressively replace its 17. Delta has now retired its DC9 variants apart from the 717. Hawaiian loves them and is probably already chasing the Volotea birds, perhaps leaving the scraps for QF.
S340/J31/146-300/F27/F50/Nord 262/Q100/200/E195/733/734/738/744/762/763/77W/788/789/320/321/332/333/345/359
 
qf002
Posts: 3669
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 11:14 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 6:42 am

Kent350787 wrote:
There are only 4 717 operators. Volotea was starting to progressively replace its 17. Delta has now retired its DC9 variants apart from the 717. Hawaiian loves them and is probably already chasing the Volotea birds, perhaps leaving the scraps for QF.


Wasn't DL looking to upsize their 717s to 737s? Obviously those plans are likely now on hold but it might be an indication of where DL would look to if they wanted to shed some weight from their fleet.
 
Kent350787
Posts: 1418
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 6:55 am

They've finally got rid of the MD88 and MD90 in the last month or so. Half the 717 fleet is currently parked but not yet retired.
S340/J31/146-300/F27/F50/Nord 262/Q100/200/E195/733/734/738/744/762/763/77W/788/789/320/321/332/333/345/359
 
User avatar
qf2220
Posts: 1972
Joined: Fri Aug 16, 2013 9:16 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:36 am

Kent350787 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
qf2220 wrote:

Its not so much the capacity that isnt being used, but the underlying cost to run a 72 vs a 42 which will be the problem.

Apart from fuel burn of the larger ATR72, it would also require an additional flight attendant for every flight whereas ATR42 supports a single F/A. REX's route structure is too marginal to support this sudden growth so an ATR72 is not really an option.


Fair point, but pre-COVID there were almost 4 times as many 72s as 42s in use. Although a couple of airlines had chosen the 42 to replace SAABs, Rex has been a lease em cheap and run em hard airline. New order 42s just don't seem to fit with its business model unless the price is really good.


No, the REX fleet strategy (which is what youre talking about, not business model*) has been SAAB340, SAAB340 or SAAB340. Their last few aquisitions have been of SAAB340Bs, or parts for them.

*Their business model is about regional connectivity, which drives fleet strategy but isnt the sole determinant.
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