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phxa340
Posts: 1116
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2012 4:07 am

Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Wed Aug 05, 2020 10:11 am

EA CO AS wrote:
enilria wrote:
Leisure dead due to school and business just dead.


No debate on the latter, but don't be so quick to call leisure dead because of school starting; with many school districts returning to online learning, one thing they heard loud and clear was that the kids needed a flexible online schedule so working parents could help the kids after work hours and on weekends. The end result is that most of the online curriculum out there allows kids to learn from anywhere, at anytime, as long as there's a reliable internet connection.

More than a few of my friends who are parents have perked up at this and started planning fall/winter trips knowing they can take the kids' Chromebooks wherever they go on vacation and get the work done on the trip. I know my wife and I are definitely eyeing some winter travel with our kiddos even though school will be in full swing; the Chromebook will just go with us.


Sorry but that is grasping at straws IMO, the last thing I’d want to do or my other friends with kids is go on vacation where the kids will then have to log onto classes. Maybe a local vacation yes .... but to fork over 1000s to sit in a hotel room or Airbnb and do classes and homework , probably not going to happen. This is one of those concepts that sound great on paper but in reality ....
 
khowaga
Posts: 264
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:07 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Wed Aug 05, 2020 1:41 pm

Dominion301 wrote:

Didn’t AC first serve AUS briefly at the end of the tech boom in 2000?


Yes, AC tried AUS-YUL. It didn’t last very long.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
Western727
Posts: 1775
Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 12:38 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Wed Aug 05, 2020 1:58 pm

usflyer msp wrote:

I have always had the impression that YVR-US traffic, even during good times, has never had great yields and is extremely seasonal.


Likewise. Source: my wife hails from YVR, and we are very close with her parents, making regular trips up there (typically in the summer) and hosting them down here in AUS (typically in the winter, obviously). Plus, having grown up in nearby SEA it's long seemed like YVR has historically been even more VFR and seasonal than SEA.
Jack @ AUS
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:26 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
enilria wrote:
Leisure dead due to school and business just dead.


No debate on the latter, but don't be so quick to call leisure dead because of school starting; with many school districts returning to online learning, one thing they heard loud and clear was that the kids needed a flexible online schedule so working parents could help the kids after work hours and on weekends. The end result is that most of the online curriculum out there allows kids to learn from anywhere, at anytime, as long as there's a reliable internet connection.

More than a few of my friends who are parents have perked up at this and started planning fall/winter trips knowing they can take the kids' Chromebooks wherever they go on vacation and get the work done on the trip. I know my wife and I are definitely eyeing some winter travel with our kiddos even though school will be in full swing; the Chromebook will just go with us.

That will allow some VFR, but you still can't got to Disney or even the newly popular National Parks and be inside all day doing homework. It's not going to go to zero, but it has to be a lot less than "real" Summer.
 
Dominion301
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Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:38 pm

khowaga wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:

Didn’t AC first serve AUS briefly at the end of the tech boom in 2000?


Yes, AC tried AUS-YUL. It didn’t last very long.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


It was AUS-YYZ. I’m pretty sure it was on a D9S. YUL has never had service to AUS...but pre-COVID, I bet they were getting close.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14485
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Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:54 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
khowaga wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:

Didn’t AC first serve AUS briefly at the end of the tech boom in 2000?


Yes, AC tried AUS-YUL. It didn’t last very long.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


It was AUS-YYZ. I’m pretty sure it was on a D9S. YUL has never had service to AUS...but pre-COVID, I bet they were getting close.


YUL was on a real nice upward transborder swing pre-COVID, with a lot of new cities (BWI, RDU) and at least one more (BNA) announced for this summer. But with air travel demand down a ton and YYZ congestion consequently probably not an issue for years, I’m unfortunately not sure any of it makes sense even as the border reopens.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
Dominion301
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Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:57 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
khowaga wrote:

Yes, AC tried AUS-YUL. It didn’t last very long.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


It was AUS-YYZ. I’m pretty sure it was on a D9S. YUL has never had service to AUS...but pre-COVID, I bet they were getting close.


YUL was on a real nice upward transborder swing pre-COVID, with a lot of new cities (BWI, RDU) and at least one more (BNA) announced for this summer. But with air travel demand down a ton and YYZ congestion consequently probably not an issue for years, I’m unfortunately not sure any of it makes sense even as the border reopens.


...and with the way things are going in the States, we're probably looking at, at least a year until the border restrictions ease. Even if the USA eases/refuses to continue with the agreement currently in place, there's no way we will reciprocate anytime soon.
 
khowaga
Posts: 264
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:07 pm

OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:11 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
khowaga wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:

Didn’t AC first serve AUS briefly at the end of the tech boom in 2000?


Yes, AC tried AUS-YUL. It didn’t last very long.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


It was AUS-YYZ. I’m pretty sure it was on a D9S. YUL has never had service to AUS...but pre-COVID, I bet they were getting close.

You’re right, it was YYZ (on an A319). Started June 5, 2000, was apparently gone by Jan 2001. Dunno why I was convinced it was YUL.

YVR had (had, pre-COVID) one of the highest PDEW to AUS on an unserved route. Not sure if the WS flight to Calgary fed into that or not, since that’s an awful long detour...

The AM drop is unfortunate, but in the thread on their Ch 11 filing it was reported that they’re returning all of their E170s, which means they’d probably rather redeploy the 190s elsewhere.

There’s just not a lot of demand between AUS and Latin America generally.
 
qblue
Posts: 143
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 3:47 am

Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:14 am

Covid hit YVR's tourism industry in the heart. Without the Alaska cruise traffic all that trans-border travel died with it.
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5249
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:35 am

qblue wrote:
Covid hit YVR's tourism industry in the heart. Without the Alaska cruise traffic all that trans-border travel died with it.


Not to mention the restriction of non-essential transborder crossing agreed upon between the US and Canada. Since the US sucks at keeping COVID under any control, the border crossing should be closed to non-essential business and tourism indefinitely to protect Canadians from losing control over this virus.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4969
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Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:55 am

enilria wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
enilria wrote:
Leisure dead due to school and business just dead.


No debate on the latter, but don't be so quick to call leisure dead because of school starting; with many school districts returning to online learning, one thing they heard loud and clear was that the kids needed a flexible online schedule so working parents could help the kids after work hours and on weekends. The end result is that most of the online curriculum out there allows kids to learn from anywhere, at anytime, as long as there's a reliable internet connection.

More than a few of my friends who are parents have perked up at this and started planning fall/winter trips knowing they can take the kids' Chromebooks wherever they go on vacation and get the work done on the trip. I know my wife and I are definitely eyeing some winter travel with our kiddos even though school will be in full swing; the Chromebook will just go with us.

That will allow some VFR, but you still can't got to Disney or even the newly popular National Parks and be inside all day doing homework. It's not going to go to zero, but it has to be a lot less than "real" Summer.

Half the kids especially young kids ar hardly going to even log into the online schooling. That’s what we saw last year
 
AmericanAir88
Posts: 57
Joined: Wed May 27, 2020 8:59 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:56 am

Wow. The NYC airports got hit hard in September. AA is barely touching any airports and UA is severely cutting its EWR hub flights. EWR-LAS going from 3 in July to 1 in September is big.

It is probably due to the quarantine. Really hope NYC will get more capacity back soon.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 665
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:12 pm

I'll calll it now. There will be no return to US/International flights other than what's currently flying until 2021. Maybe well into 2021. Domestic capacity will continued to be slashed. There will be even greater layoffs than expected. There will be either Chapter 11 filings (although I don't see any of the US3 going out of business, maybe shotgun mergers) unless the US government ponies up tens if not hundreds of billions.

For the next 6 months, maybe closer to a year, sadly the airline industry will only have one direction. Down.
 
sptv
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Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:47 pm

I used to fly LAX-YVR weekly on AA, before that AS. AS had up to 4 daily flights at one time, but was generally running 3 per day in the early 2010s. Hollywood was always well-represented on the AS flights. When AS pulled out and AA took over (probably in 2014ish), it took a while for AA to take hold. They generally ran two flights daily - one northbound departure around 9:30am and one around 8:00pm. AA never really caught on with Hollywood - I would blame the inconvenience of the bus transfer to Eagle's Nest as the primary reason. Plus, AC added frequency and had competitive pricing (especially for tickets that were being purchased North of the border). I always enjoyed the AA service on the YVR flight (especially once the then-new Compass E175s took over the route from the Mesa CR9s, which was the original service). AA has recently been operating the flight with Skywest CR7s (since Compass is gone now), which is a significant step down competitively in the market. Beyond that, it looks like AA is pulling out of YVR completely (DFW and PHX flights are also zeroed out after the summer season). Maybe once travel starts to tick up, is it possible they will return all three flights?
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5249
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Sun Aug 09, 2020 3:09 pm

I think there is remote possibility of AS returning to the LAX-YVR route...more likely than AS returning to LGB. But I think they will be E-175's to start.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 3796
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Sun Aug 09, 2020 3:28 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
I think there is remote possibility of AS returning to the LAX-YVR route...more likely than AS returning to LGB. But I think they will be E-175's to start.


I don't see anyone entering LAX-YVR as long as the border is closed to US Citizens, which I predict will be closed until at least Spring 2021.
 
divemaster08
Posts: 191
Joined: Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:45 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:36 pm

Well the Cayman Islands Government just closed the islands for international travel until October 1st now (was Sep 1st) due to the US COVID situation, guess all the airlines that had planned any GCM flights will have to cancel them now!
My dream, is to fly, over the rainbow, so high!
 
ZazuPIT
Posts: 125
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Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:43 pm

IMO, any meaningful level of air travel is dead for at least 9 months, maybe longer. The upcoming cuts may be as brutal as the early ones. COVID-19 shows no sign of slowing, especially in the U.S. where it has morphed from a health issue into a battle of political ideology. With the normal flu season approaching, things are not going to improve. Sucks because I was supposed to go to Australia this winter, but that's not going to happen.
 
Ishrion
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Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Sun Aug 09, 2020 6:00 pm

sptv wrote:
Beyond that, it looks like AA is pulling out of YVR completely (DFW and PHX flights are also zeroed out after the summer season). Maybe once travel starts to tick up, is it possible they will return all three flights?


DFW-YVR resumes January 4, 2021.

PHX-YVR resumes June 3, 2021.

LAX-YVR resumes June 3, 2021.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Mon Aug 10, 2020 12:11 pm

ZazuPIT wrote:
IMO, any meaningful level of air travel is dead for at least 9 months, maybe longer. The upcoming cuts may be as brutal as the early ones. COVID-19 shows no sign of slowing, especially in the U.S. where it has morphed from a health issue into a battle of political ideology. With the normal flu season approaching, things are not going to improve. Sucks because I was supposed to go to Australia this winter, but that's not going to happen.


We are near the level of cuts as April
 
Western727
Posts: 1775
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Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Mon Aug 10, 2020 12:51 pm

Ishrion wrote:
sptv wrote:
Beyond that, it looks like AA is pulling out of YVR completely (DFW and PHX flights are also zeroed out after the summer season). Maybe once travel starts to tick up, is it possible they will return all three flights?


DFW-YVR resumes January 4, 2021.

PHX-YVR resumes June 3, 2021.

LAX-YVR resumes June 3, 2021.


Thanks, Ishrion, this is helpful. My in-laws who live in YVR have come down to AUS, where both their daughters and their families live, almost every December, given the typically rainy-and-dreary winter weather up there. Because of the high level of unpredictability nowadays and our collective desire to be safe (especially because my in-laws are 70 and 74 though with no other significant underlying health issues), we are:

1. Holding out on the (seemingly small) chance of them flying down; if they do so, I would most likely arrange a nonstop on UA to IAH, since as Ishrion pointed out a YVR-DFW nonstop is out of the question. Yes, such would require a 3-hour drive to AUS, but IMO it's worth doing to reduce my in-laws' potential exposure;
2. We've booked a flexible-cancellation (no risk up to 5 days prior to check-in) vacation house between SEA and YVR, about 1.5 hours from the border, should circumstances dictate that they not travel far from medical care in Canada, which would require air travel for 8 of us (2 families of 4) to SEA. Again, to reduce the risk involved we'd fly nonstop to SEA, now available on AS and DL.
3. Should things not look good, we'll cancel both options.

Quite the times we find ourselves in.

EDIT: clarification.
Last edited by Western727 on Mon Aug 10, 2020 12:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Jack @ AUS
 
Miamiairport
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Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Mon Aug 10, 2020 12:52 pm

I agree we are on a severe downhill slide that might take months if not years to get anywhere close to pre COVID levels. BTW I did a bit of math this morning. I took the CDC COVID deaths to date of approximately 144K divided by the estimated population of the US 330 million. Needless to say leading zeros in the percentage.
 
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enilria
Topic Author
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Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Mon Aug 10, 2020 1:22 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:
IMO, any meaningful level of air travel is dead for at least 9 months, maybe longer. The upcoming cuts may be as brutal as the early ones. COVID-19 shows no sign of slowing, especially in the U.S. where it has morphed from a health issue into a battle of political ideology. With the normal flu season approaching, things are not going to improve. Sucks because I was supposed to go to Australia this winter, but that's not going to happen.


We are near the level of cuts as April

I try not to buy into the media fear p0rn, but I do think you are largely correct as it related to air travel. I saw Walt Disney World is cutting hours not because of danger, but because of poor attendance. A lot of amusement parks have already dropped their reservation requirements because attendance is so poor. This bodes poorly for Fall travel when coupled with school returning and business travel being dead.
Miamiairport wrote:
I agree we are on a severe downhill slide that might take months if not years to get anywhere close to pre COVID levels. BTW I did a bit of math this morning. I took the CDC COVID deaths to date of approximately 144K divided by the estimated population of the US 330 million. Needless to say leading zeros in the percentage.

It's still not the leading cause of death in the USA and won't be by a large margin unless things got massively worse which I think is highly unlikely. Having said that, it's new and dangerous and people have not learned to live with the fear like they have with cancer and auto accidents, plus the media is pouring on all the gasoline they can buy to boost their ad dollars.
 
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jfklganyc
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Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Mon Aug 10, 2020 2:16 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:
IMO, any meaningful level of air travel is dead for at least 9 months, maybe longer. The upcoming cuts may be as brutal as the early ones. COVID-19 shows no sign of slowing, especially in the U.S. where it has morphed from a health issue into a battle of political ideology. With the normal flu season approaching, things are not going to improve. Sucks because I was supposed to go to Australia this winter, but that's not going to happen.


We are near the level of cuts as April



To clarify I meant:
we are nowhere near the level of cuts as April!
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 665
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Mon Aug 10, 2020 2:21 pm

The NYC/Florida market is huge. But with the fear of "checkpoints" travel between the 2 states is going to take a dive. People will ignore the self quarantine unless they think they might get "caught." No different from the way people drive on 95. It's 85 m.p.h. for many until a police car is spotted parked in the medium.
 
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klm617
Posts: 5025
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/4/2020:SEPTEMBER SLIDE;AA Drops LAX-YVR;AM Drops AUS;AS Adds SAN-SBA;

Mon Aug 10, 2020 4:25 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
I'll calll it now. There will be no return to US/International flights other than what's currently flying until 2021. Maybe well into 2021. Domestic capacity will continued to be slashed. There will be even greater layoffs than expected. There will be either Chapter 11 filings (although I don't see any of the US3 going out of business, maybe shotgun mergers) unless the US government ponies up tens if not hundreds of billions.

For the next 6 months, maybe closer to a year, sadly the airline industry will only have one direction. Down.


I'm thinking 2022 is our best shot for a rebound. We are deep into 2020 with no signs this thing is slowing down which is going to make people very skeptical on booking 2021 flights. A lot of work now is going digital further lessoning the need for business travel and companies are going to use this to further enhance their bottom line when things get better. For the most part only essentional business travel is going to be authorized under the guise of covid 19 worries when in fact the bean counters will be rejoicing at the added income that will be created going forward.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...

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