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na
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Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:43 pm

https://www.skyliner-aviation.de/regdb. ... av4&page=4

Air NZ has removed two 777-300ER from its fleet. The lessor stores them at Victorville.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:16 pm

Wise move by Air NZ. I saddens me to see a once efficient set of aircraft sidelined, but the reality is most airlines should be returning as many aircraft as possible.

By the time these are needed again, there will be plenty of selection. How old are these 77Ws?

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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:19 pm

lightsaber wrote:
How old are these 77Ws?


ZK-OKS - 5.9 years
ZK-OKR - 6.2 years
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:23 pm

Ishrion wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
How old are these 77Ws?


ZK-OKS - 5.9 years
ZK-OKR - 6.2 years


Safe to say it will make a return after 2-3 years.
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:30 pm

Have to wonder what lease flexibility was written (or granted) by Air Lease Corp.
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:52 am

It seems strange to see OKS go. I was on the first revenue Trans-Pacific flight
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:49 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
Have to wonder what lease flexibility was written (or granted) by Air Lease Corp.


They were the only two leased 77W’s in NZ’s fleet, and already had early exit terms for around 2021/22 FY for NZ.

NZ typically likes to have an few aircraft in there fleet, that can be disposed off if needed. The majority of there current is currently owned, apart from a couple of each type that is leased.
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:36 am

chonetsao wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
How old are these 77Ws?


ZK-OKS - 5.9 years
ZK-OKR - 6.2 years


Safe to say it will make a return after 2-3 years.


I wouldn't say that ... the leases for these two had exit clauses in the next couple of years anyway. I doubt very much they will be back.
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:41 am

zkncj wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Have to wonder what lease flexibility was written (or granted) by Air Lease Corp.


They were the only two leased 77W’s in NZ’s fleet, and already had early exit terms for around 2021/22 FY for NZ.

NZ typically likes to have an few aircraft in there fleet, that can be disposed off if needed. The majority of there current is currently owned, apart from a couple of each type that is leased.


I thought there were 3 leased and 4 owned in the 77W fleet ?
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:46 am

What a shame yet hardly surprising. ZK-OKR was the first aircraft built to be ETOPS330 certified right from the start.
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:29 am

What about their crews? I've read somewhere that NZ cabin crews are managed in a way, where a group of FA's and a specific airframe are "paired" (for lack of better word).
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:27 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
What about their crews? I've read somewhere that NZ cabin crews are managed in a way, where a group of FA's and a specific airframe are "paired" (for lack of better word).


?? I never heard that one before ....
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:54 pm

NZ321 wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
What about their crews? I've read somewhere that NZ cabin crews are managed in a way, where a group of FA's and a specific airframe are "paired" (for lack of better word).


?? I never heard that one before ....

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1444755#p22160745

This is where I might have heard it from. I am not sure, if I was reading it right, and the poster meant 777 and 787 as unique fleets? or unique frames?
AN4 A40 L4T TU3 TU5 IL6 ILW I93 F50 F70 100 146 ARJ AT7 DH4 L10 CRJ ERJ E90 E95 DC-9 MD-8X YK4 YK2 SF3 S20 319 320 321 332 333 343 346 722 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 744 74M 757 767 777
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:32 pm

chonetsao wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
How old are these 77Ws?


ZK-OKS - 5.9 years
ZK-OKR - 6.2 years


Safe to say it will make a return after 2-3 years.


I would be very surprised if these planes will return to passenger service. If the freighter conversions are an success these will be ideal candidates. The passenger plane market will be swamped for years.
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:42 pm

IWMBH wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
Ishrion wrote:

ZK-OKS - 5.9 years
ZK-OKR - 6.2 years


Safe to say it will make a return after 2-3 years.


I would be very surprised if these planes will return to passenger service. If the freighter conversions are an success these will be ideal candidates. The passenger plane market will be swamped for years.


There are lots of existing and prospective passenger operators for 77W, and six years isn't old. These aren't A380s after all. ;)

Over 800 have been delivered. From 2016: There are over 35 777-300ER airline operators. Of them, 22 operate 10 or more -300ERs, and 11 operate 20 or more.

https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... 016-268001
 
na
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:18 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
There are lots of existing and prospective passenger operators for 77W, and six years isn't old. These aren't A380s after all. ;)


Still in a few years the 77W will carry the roll that the 744 has now, the role of the outgoing, outdated old champion.
Don´t forget, that while the A380 is too big for most operators now which find the size of the A350 and 787 better suited in Corona times and coming years, this also affects operators which have the 77W as their biggest plane. It makes no sense to think that only VLA operators are affected by the shrink.
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:20 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
chonetsao wrote:

Safe to say it will make a return after 2-3 years.


I would be very surprised if these planes will return to passenger service. If the freighter conversions are an success these will be ideal candidates. The passenger plane market will be swamped for years.


There are lots of existing and prospective passenger operators for 77W, and six years isn't old. These aren't A380s after all. ;)

Over 800 have been delivered. From 2016: There are over 35 777-300ER airline operators. Of them, 22 operate 10 or more -300ERs, and 11 operate 20 or more.

https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... 016-268001


I probably wouldn't get my hopes too high. It will certainly be better than the A380, but probably not much better. Cargo conversions will only do so much to eat up available frames (probably less than 10 conversions annually), and you already have a glut of undelivered 787s and A350s sitting around and a long-term reduction in international travel. 777-300ER prospects were already looking gloomy before the crisis with large numbers scheduled to be retired.

These two on the other hand should have better chances than most. Air New Zealand has a good reputation when it comes to maintenance, plus the frames are young.
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:34 pm

Sorry for the silly questions but who pays for the storage? The airline?
And what is the cost for a 77W in the desert?
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:09 pm

Kiwiandrew wrote:
zkncj wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Have to wonder what lease flexibility was written (or granted) by Air Lease Corp.


They were the only two leased 77W’s in NZ’s fleet, and already had early exit terms for around 2021/22 FY for NZ.

NZ typically likes to have an few aircraft in there fleet, that can be disposed off if needed. The majority of there current is currently owned, apart from a couple of each type that is leased.


I thought there were 3 leased and 4 owned in the 77W fleet ?


ZK-OKN and ZK-OKO are also leased, but from DAE Capital (OKN) and BBAM (OKO), while these two (OKR & OKS) were leased from ALC. That makes 4 leased and 3 owned.
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:09 pm

VCVSpotter wrote:
ZK-OKN and ZK-OKO are also leased, but from DAE Capital (OKN) and BBAM (OKO), while these two (OKR & OKS) were leased from ALC. That makes 4 leased and 3 owned.

That was correct but in FY2016 either ZK-OKN or ZK-OKO was purchased by Air NZ. As at 30 Jun 2016 there were four owned and three leased.

PA515
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Fri Aug 07, 2020 7:00 pm

PA515 wrote:
VCVSpotter wrote:
ZK-OKN and ZK-OKO are also leased, but from DAE Capital (OKN) and BBAM (OKO), while these two (OKR & OKS) were leased from ALC. That makes 4 leased and 3 owned.

That was correct but in FY2016 either ZK-OKN or ZK-OKO was purchased by Air NZ. As at 30 Jun 2016 there were four owned and three leased.

PA515


Oh, ok. I didn’t know that, thx for the correction :)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:15 pm

ojjunior wrote:
Sorry for the silly questions but who pays for the storage? The airline?
And what is the cost for a 77W in the desert?

"return to lessor" means ANZ no longer owns it so the lessor pays for it.

As above, they must have had a way to get out of the contract early.

Presumably it was cheaper to pay whatever cost of getting out early than continuing to pay for an asset they weren't going to be using.
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Sat Aug 08, 2020 2:36 am

Phosphorus wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
What about their crews? I've read somewhere that NZ cabin crews are managed in a way, where a group of FA's and a specific airframe are "paired" (for lack of better word).


?? I never heard that one before ....

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1444755#p22160745

This is where I might have heard it from. I am not sure, if I was reading it right, and the poster meant 777 and 787 as unique fleets? or unique frames?


That’s correct - NZ has three mainline cabin crew divisions in different contracts, each on their own fleet, Longhaul (legacy) 777, midhaul 789 and short haul 320. Almost all 789 cabin crew have been made redundant as the longhaul/777 crew had a clause in their contract that should the 777 be retired, they would displace new crew on the newer fleet type. Such a shame as I always found the midhaul 789 crew to be much more enthusiastic and polished!

Such a shame to see these aircraft go - they were awesome rides for the short hop across the Tasman.
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Sat Aug 08, 2020 3:40 am

Revelation wrote:
ojjunior wrote:
Sorry for the silly questions but who pays for the storage? The airline?
And what is the cost for a 77W in the desert?

"return to lessor" means ANZ no longer owns it so the lessor pays for it.

As above, they must have had a way to get out of the contract early.

Presumably it was cheaper to pay whatever cost of getting out early than continuing to pay for an asset they weren't going to be using.

I really want to know what the terms were. Any airlines that can remove aircraft should. I would imagine Leasing companies want any possible revenue. So this must have been an existing term in the contract.

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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Sat Aug 08, 2020 4:53 am

lightsaber wrote:
I really want to know what the terms were. Any airlines that can remove aircraft should. I would imagine Leasing companies want any possible revenue. So this must have been an existing term in the contract.

Air NZ had 'early termination options' on the two ALC 77Ws. Refer Slide 35 of the 2019 Annual Results Presentation. The actual date of their handover to ALC could be later in FY2021 as both ZK-OKR and ZK-OKS are still on the New Zealand register and so far neither appear to have an 'N' number.
http://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/airn ... tation.pdf

PA515
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Sat Aug 08, 2020 5:14 am

lightsaber wrote:
Revelation wrote:
ojjunior wrote:
Sorry for the silly questions but who pays for the storage? The airline?
And what is the cost for a 77W in the desert?

"return to lessor" means ANZ no longer owns it so the lessor pays for it.

As above, they must have had a way to get out of the contract early.

Presumably it was cheaper to pay whatever cost of getting out early than continuing to pay for an asset they weren't going to be using.

I really want to know what the terms were. Any airlines that can remove aircraft should. I would imagine Leasing companies want any possible revenue. So this must have been an existing term in the contract.

Lightsaber


I'm not so sure on the leasing company front. Sure, the immediate revenue from an early termination is helpful but if the slowdown in international travel is as bad as forecasted, you're stuck with a lot of large expensive planes with no one to lease them to.
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Sat Aug 08, 2020 6:05 am

PA515 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I really want to know what the terms were. Any airlines that can remove aircraft should. I would imagine Leasing companies want any possible revenue. So this must have been an existing term in the contract.

Air NZ had 'early termination options' on the two ALC 77Ws. Refer Slide 35 of the 2019 Annual Results Presentation. The actual date of their handover to ALC could be later in FY2021 as both ZK-OKR and ZK-OKS are still on the New Zealand register and so far neither appear to have an 'N' number.
http://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/airn ... tation.pdf

PA515


I’m not sure they have been returned ‘yet’ hence they are still NZ registered.

It will be interesting to see if the third leased 77W is returned as well?
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Sat Aug 08, 2020 6:40 am

My understanding is that Air NZ have a requirement going forward for 2 777-300's. They have restructured their crewing numbers around a 2 aircract fleet. Although they need 2 it actuually means at present they will be keeping 3. The three remaining are OKM,N and O with OKP scheduled to head off to Victorville. At this stage haven't heard whats happening with OKQ which carries the iconic all black livery. OKM and OKN are scheduled for some maintenance which includes under carriage replacement, not sure if thE same is required for OKO. Once that is completed there will always be a operational spare which could also cover any unscheduled or unplanned issues in the 787 fleet.
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Sat Aug 08, 2020 6:47 am

GW54 wrote:
My understanding is that Air NZ have a requirement going forward for 2 777-300's. They have restructured their crewing numbers around a 2 aircract fleet. Although they need 2 it actuually means at present they will be keeping 3. The three remaining are OKM,N and O with OKP scheduled to head off to Victorville. At this stage haven't heard whats happening with OKQ which carries the iconic all black livery. OKM and OKN are scheduled for some maintenance which includes under carriage replacement, not sure if thE same is required for OKO. Once that is completed there will always be a operational spare which could also cover any unscheduled or unplanned issues in the 787 fleet.


I understood something similar. OKQ was meant to have gone to VCV but was hit or hit a 789 at the jet base delaying its departure.
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Sat Aug 08, 2020 6:53 am

ZK-OKM seems to have spent the last week operating AKL-LAX-AKL as NZ1005/1006.

Seems like OKM is been kept busy with cargo work at the moment.
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Sat Aug 08, 2020 8:05 am

If anyone was in the market for a large business jet they will soon have a very good choice of aircraft to choose from. I assume purchasing one of these and converting it would be cheaper than buying a new green frame from Boeing.
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Sat Aug 08, 2020 8:48 am

aklrno wrote:
It seems strange to see OKS go. I was on the first revenue Trans-Pacific flight


Maybe you should let them know. They might change their mind after knowing about that fact. :bigthumbsup: :D
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Sat Aug 08, 2020 10:18 am

It's quite clear that this thread is about the 77W's ..but there is the closely connected
presence of the 772's from the Company's 777 fleet.
AirNZ has made it clear that those planes' future is over. They will quickly rot away in the
salty Manukau environment, so what do we know about their immediate future prospects,
including owned vs leased differences?
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Sat Aug 08, 2020 10:33 am

NYCVIE wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Revelation wrote:
"return to lessor" means ANZ no longer owns it so the lessor pays for it.

As above, they must have had a way to get out of the contract early.

Presumably it was cheaper to pay whatever cost of getting out early than continuing to pay for an asset they weren't going to be using.

I really want to know what the terms were. Any airlines that can remove aircraft should. I would imagine Leasing companies want any possible revenue. So this must have been an existing term in the contract.

Lightsaber


I'm not so sure on the leasing company front. Sure, the immediate revenue from an early termination is helpful but if the slowdown in international travel is as bad as forecasted, you're stuck with a lot of large expensive planes with no one to lease them to.

Early termination, in addition to triggering exit penalties, will bring forward the end of lease (EOL) conditions and payment. If close to end of lease, may be less costly to keep making the monthly lease payments.

The period of inactivity, may move hours and cycles into the low band for the lease period, triggering a re-price of lease payments, which can be used to reduce the final EOL payment.

If the lessor isn't confident of finding a new home for one or more aircraft, they may have agreed to forgive some or all of the return condition requirements, with NZ making a discounted cash payment.
 
Someone83
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Sat Aug 08, 2020 11:42 am

Have they retired other aircraft during Covid-19?
 
GW54
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Sat Aug 08, 2020 6:58 pm

Someone83 wrote:
Have they retired other aircraft during Covid-19?

They have retired all 8 of their 777-200's. The majority are stored in Christchurch with a couple of them in Auckland. They seem at present to have more A320's than needed with some not having flown for months. Others are being rotated and flying only 3 or 4 days a week and even then oo some days only flying 1 or 2 sectors. Domestically their timetable is at 70% of pre covid levels and I understand their goal is to get to 90%. Also a 'Bubble' with some Pacific Island countries is looking more and more likely and that will see some of the excess A320ceo/neo capacity used.
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:03 am

GW54 wrote:
Someone83 wrote:
Have they retired other aircraft during Covid-19?

They have retired all 8 of their 777-200's. The majority are stored in Christchurch with a couple of them in Auckland. They seem at present to have more A320's than needed with some not having flown for months. Others are being rotated and flying only 3 or 4 days a week and even then oo some days only flying 1 or 2 sectors. Domestically their timetable is at 70% of pre covid levels and I understand their goal is to get to 90%. Also a 'Bubble' with some Pacific Island countries is looking more and more likely and that will see some of the excess A320ceo/neo capacity used.


Just half 4 of the 772 fleet are in CHC. Recently they have been shifted off the deep freeze apron to allow a C17 Globematser to park.
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Sun Aug 09, 2020 7:01 am

From what I can piece together it looks like Air NZ own 4 of the 7 300's. OKM,OKN,OKO and OKQ. Hence OKP ,OKR and OKS returned to lessor's and off to Victorville.
Of the 200's OKA,OKD,OKE and OKG are leased and the other four owned. That said the 200's no longer feature in Air NZ's future planning so it would appear before to long they will be off to the desert and a very uncertain future.
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Sun Aug 09, 2020 7:15 am

smi0006 wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
NZ321 wrote:

?? I never heard that one before ....

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1444755#p22160745

This is where I might have heard it from. I am not sure, if I was reading it right, and the poster meant 777 and 787 as unique fleets? or unique frames?


That’s correct - NZ has three mainline cabin crew divisions in different contracts, each on their own fleet, Longhaul (legacy) 777, midhaul 789 and short haul 320. Almost all 789 cabin crew have been made redundant as the longhaul/777 crew had a clause in their contract that should the 777 be retired, they would displace new crew on the newer fleet type. Such a shame as I always found the midhaul 789 crew to be much more enthusiastic and polished!

Such a shame to see these aircraft go - they were awesome rides for the short hop across the Tasman.


This is simply incorrect. There are 777 crew who are not legacy crew who have been made redundant. You paint it if it is a simple delineation which it is not. Please check your facts.
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Sun Aug 09, 2020 9:34 am

GW54 wrote:
Someone83 wrote:
Have they retired other aircraft during Covid-19?

They have retired all 8 of their 777-200's. The majority are stored in Christchurch with a couple of them in Auckland. They seem at present to have more A320's than needed with some not having flown for months. Others are being rotated and flying only 3 or 4 days a week and even then oo some days only flying 1 or 2 sectors. Domestically their timetable is at 70% of pre covid levels and I understand their goal is to get to 90%. Also a 'Bubble' with some Pacific Island countries is looking more and more likely and that will see some of the excess A320ceo/neo capacity used.


Most of the 7x a320CEO’s that haven’t flown in the last couple of months were already due to leave in the fleet in 2020/2021. Theses are the old International a320CEO’s the ‘03-06 builds that were apart of the rebirth of NZ post AN.

4x were already meant to be gone by the end of this year, along with the remaining 3x next year once the Domestic A321NEO order starts to arrive.

In the short-term the a321NEO’s have been re-purposed onto Domestic services. NZ seems to be like it to, it’s been reported that the CASAM is around the same as NZ a320CEO’s.

Make sense that the older a320s have been parked, when they have a much of NEO’s which are more cost effective.
 
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Sun Aug 09, 2020 1:12 pm

GW54 wrote:
From what I can piece together it looks like Air NZ own 4 of the 7 300's. OKM,OKN,OKO and OKQ. Hence OKP ,OKR and OKS returned to lessor's and off to Victorville.
Of the 200's OKA,OKD,OKE and OKG are leased and the other four owned. That said the 200's no longer feature in Air NZ's future planning so it would appear before to long they will be off to the desert and a very uncertain future.


ZK-OKP is not leased. ZK-OKN and ZK-OKO were both initially leased from DAE and one of them was purchased by Air NZ in FY 2016.

PA515
 
na
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:27 pm

77W ZK-OKP to follow its sisters to Victorville on return to lessor:
https://www.skyliner-aviation.de/regdb. ... av4&page=4
 
LHA320
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Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 10:57 pm

Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Tue Aug 11, 2020 11:13 pm

Are there more sources that OKN, OKO and OKP are really returned to their lessors?
While I really like skyliner as a source and think that they do a tremendous job, they tend to be a bit rashly when it comes to leasing returns and scrappings. For example, they label nearly every older aircraft flying into airports like DGX or VCV as part-out & scrap while some of them have returned into active service. Would be good to know if there are some more sources then
Could be interim storage for all 3 77W imho
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eamondzhang
Posts: 1788
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 8:23 am

Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Wed Aug 12, 2020 12:02 am

LHA320 wrote:
Are there more sources that OKN, OKO and OKP are really returned to their lessors?
While I really like skyliner as a source and think that they do a tremendous job, they tend to be a bit rashly when it comes to leasing returns and scrappings. For example, they label nearly every older aircraft flying into airports like DGX or VCV as part-out & scrap while some of them have returned into active service. Would be good to know if there are some more sources then
Could be interim storage for all 3 77W imho

NZ has expressed desire to reduce their 777 fleet further in addition to the removal of 772ER so I will not be surprised if these are lease returns.

Given they're no longer flying to LHR they don't need these three planes in any case (a AKL-LAX-LHR rotation takes more than two planes from my calculation, more like 2.5 planes)

Michael
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7494
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Wed Aug 12, 2020 1:04 am

eamondzhang wrote:
LHA320 wrote:
Are there more sources that OKN, OKO and OKP are really returned to their lessors?
While I really like skyliner as a source and think that they do a tremendous job, they tend to be a bit rashly when it comes to leasing returns and scrappings. For example, they label nearly every older aircraft flying into airports like DGX or VCV as part-out & scrap while some of them have returned into active service. Would be good to know if there are some more sources then
Could be interim storage for all 3 77W imho

NZ has expressed desire to reduce their 777 fleet further in addition to the removal of 772ER so I will not be surprised if these are lease returns.

Given they're no longer flying to LHR they don't need these three planes in any case (a AKL-LAX-LHR rotation takes more than two planes from my calculation, more like 2.5 planes)

Michael


Beyond the 772 it does make sense to return the leased 77Ws atleast which is 3 aircraft of the 7 77Ws.

They had plans pre Covid for the 77W fleet once LHR ended more IAH and still running 2 daily AKL-LAX, we are a long way from that now however so reducing the fleet makes sense.

Tbh I can’t remember which is the third leased 77W, OKR and OKS were 2, OKQ was meant to go to VCV, it was delayed when it hit or was hit by a 789 in AKL, I had heard 3 77Ws would remain in AKL available for use while also having land gear replacements.
 
OccupiedLav
Posts: 81
Joined: Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:54 pm

Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:34 am

chonetsao wrote:
Safe to say it will make a return after 2-3 years.


I doubt these frames will return to Air New Zealand. Someone else might need them once the whole virus thing is sorted out. Or maybe not. The reality is that nobody knows what post covid-19 long haul demand is going to be. However, I'm betting we'll see the return of a lot of these stored airliners in a year or two, especially once a proven vaccine is out.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:09 am

OccupiedLav wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
Safe to say it will make a return after 2-3 years.


I doubt these frames will return to Air New Zealand. Someone else might need them once the whole virus thing is sorted out. Or maybe not. The reality is that nobody knows what post covid-19 long haul demand is going to be. However, I'm betting we'll see the return of a lot of these stored airliners in a year or two, especially once a proven vaccine is out.

I doubt these 777-300ERs will return. If ANZ needs more capacity, the 777-200ERs could be reactivated. If there was enough demand, the 787-10s would be a more economical option.

ANZ will regauge after COVID19. That was happening anyway. Personally, I estimate frequency will serve them better. The 787-10 and 787-9 will serve them well until the next widebody.

The few trunk routes will be well served by the 77W. I could see a handful of 779 or 778, but only because of belly cargo; that means one heck of a set of PiPs, so a discussion for far in the future.

The goal is getting through this. That means reducing capacity to get through.

Unfortunately, we are past the point of a rebound in two years. I could see a quick rebound to 50% to 65% of capacity, but then we ate looking at growth from that baseline. Growth at 6% to 8% per year.

Unfortunately, a longhaul return to 2019 levels by 2025 is starting to look optimistic. Not what I predicted a few months ago.

If the market grows much faster than I predict, ANZ will have a fine selection of used 77Ws, possibly including their own used examples. A350 and 787 production is still at a rate higher than the market will accept, this is a no lose for ANZ.

Lightsaber
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
NZ516
Posts: 450
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:51 am

I can't see the 777-200s ever flying again and once they are retired they will be gone for good. They are getting to there end of their economic life some are 15 years old. In the future if demand recovers well eventually they will take the 787-10 orders.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7494
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Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:40 am

NZ516 wrote:
I can't see the 777-200s ever flying again and once they are retired they will be gone for good. They are getting to there end of their economic life some are 15 years old. In the future if demand recovers well eventually they will take the 787-10 orders.


They can fly for 30 years. The owned 77Ws may stay around they may not as well. I guess hopefully eventually they take the 78J, in the medium term I could see only the 789 given the way things are looking atm.
 
TheWorm123
Posts: 254
Joined: Sun Oct 06, 2019 8:29 pm

Re: Air New Zealand retires two 77W

Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:48 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
I can't see the 777-200s ever flying again and once they are retired they will be gone for good. They are getting to there end of their economic life some are 15 years old. In the future if demand recovers well eventually they will take the 787-10 orders.


They can fly for 30 years. The owned 77Ws may stay around they may not as well. I guess hopefully eventually they take the 78J, in the medium term I could see only the 789 given the way things are looking atm.

772’s younger than 15 were being scrapped pre-COVID they don’t stand much of a chance now that widebody operation at that scale is more or less nil.
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