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dcajet
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QANTAS to park most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:45 am

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... or-storage

According to this publication, QANTAS now sees any significant reactivation of international flying a year away; beginning in September it will send most of the 11-strong 787 fleet for long term storage to California's Mojave desert. A few will stay behind in Australia.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:17 am

Is there nowhere in Australia that they could park these?
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Scotron12
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:21 am

gatibosgru wrote:
Is there nowhere in Australia that they could park these?


Alice Springs...is where SQ & CX are using. Could be no space. No clue as to other facilities available in Australia.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:24 am

They have to do this. The only thing you can see is that international travel is a long ways away from coming back. Smart and necessary move so that they have planes when travel does return.

More long haul planes need to be stored. Airlines that don't and keep flying long haul international too much could find themselves in unrepairable financial situations.
 
Scarebus34
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:38 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
They have to do this. The only thing you can see is that international travel is a long ways away from coming back. Smart and necessary move so that they have planes when travel does return.

More long haul planes need to be stored. Airlines that don't and keep flying long haul international too much could find themselves in unrepairable financial situations.

Most are offsetting expenses with cargo - until the cargo dries up, they'll keep flying.
 
32andBelow
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:51 am

gatibosgru wrote:
Is there nowhere in Australia that they could park these?

They have a MX base in LA
 
dcajet
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:57 am

gatibosgru wrote:
Is there nowhere in Australia that they could park these?


QANTAS has a full mx base at LAX that can easily focus on these parked planes nearly 100 miles to the east. I don't believe they have such an arrangement in Alice Springs.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
gaystudpilot
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:44 am

The airline industry will be lucky if demand returns to 75% of pre-Covid levels by 2024. The tentacles into related industries are vast and the economic impact will be huge. QANTAS and others are smart to hunker down for the long term. As demand returns it will not be a quick rebound and airlines will have time to rebuild — if they’re still around.
 
32andBelow
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:45 am

dcajet wrote:
gatibosgru wrote:
Is there nowhere in Australia that they could park these?


QANTAS has a full mx base at LAX that can easily focus on these parked planes nearly 100 miles to the east. I don't believe they have such an arrangement in Alice Springs.

Plus keeps the base working.
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 7:11 am

gaystudpilot wrote:
The airline industry will be lucky if demand returns to 75% of pre-Covid levels by 2024. The tentacles into related industries are vast and the economic impact will be huge. QANTAS and others are smart to hunker down for the long term. As demand returns it will not be a quick rebound and airlines will have time to rebuild — if they’re still around.



Indeed. The scale of this is not precedented. With so much demand lost permanently, and with what returns overwhelmingly likely not to look like pre C19 markets, it is difficult to say who will be here, and with what mission and scope over the next five years. Having that been said, I do agree that QF have made very hard, but good decisions over the past few months.

dcajet wrote:

QANTAS has a full mx base at LAX that can easily focus on these parked planes nearly 100 miles to the east. I don't believe they have such an arrangement in Alice Springs.


The LAX team is at a point now where we are as well trained as anyone in the system on the 789s. Ditto the 388s. As well, the supplies, tooling and space here are as good as anything likely to be found in the system. The 789s would all be kept here if that were a reasonable proposition. But... VCV is easily accessible and itself has decent space for a lot of the attending GSE & MX equipment as well.
"Nous ne sommes pas infectés. Il n'y a pas d'infection ici..."
 
MSJYOP28Apilot
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 7:18 am

Australia has chosen the strategy of isolating itself from the rest of the world. This means that until a vaccine is widely available and distributed the borders are closed and few can travel to Australia. We are talking at least a year if not more before this happens. I applaud them for their forward thinking because airlines in America all still believe demand will be returning to normal by next spring.
 
wil381
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 7:24 am

What about the Jetstar 787's then? If there's no international flights for at least 12 months, are they going to be moved to the U.S. as well with the QF fleet, or are they staying in Avalon?
 
AntonioMartin
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:11 am

wil381 wrote:
What about the Jetstar 787's then? If there's no international flights for at least 12 months, are they going to be moved to the U.S. as well with the QF fleet, or are they staying in Avalon?

Marana or, specially, Goodyear! (cross my fingers!)
 
tullamarine
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 9:24 am

wil381 wrote:
What about the Jetstar 787's then? If there's no international flights for at least 12 months, are they going to be moved to the U.S. as well with the QF fleet, or are they staying in Avalon?

Definitely won't stay at AVV; it's too damp and close to the sea so very unsuitable for long-term storage. QF may be thinking what they want to do with the JQ 788s before moving them. They have a few options such as long term storage in US, transferring to QF mainline as replacements for the oldest A332s or selling the fleet. Ideally QF would probably prefer the sell option but there is little to no market for secondhand 788s at the moment so I would expect them to head to the desert for a couple of years at least.
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Nicknuzzii
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:54 pm

For everyone saying this is the right decision I strongly disagree with you. Should Qantas send it’s 787s into short term storage? Yes. Why shouldn’t they send them into long term storage? They have 0 clue where air travel will be after a vaccine. It’s looking like we should have one sometime next year and once we do so we should all expect a spike in demand. Will it be 100%? No. Will it be 80%? Probably. There is a reason UA and DL hopped right back on SYD-LAX...
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:04 pm

I find it strange to use the word mothball to describe the long term storage of airplanes.

With that said, many widebodies are in long term storage in low humidity locations.
 
Toinou
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:13 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
For everyone saying this is the right decision I strongly disagree with you. Should Qantas send it’s 787s into short term storage? Yes. Why shouldn’t they send them into long term storage? They have 0 clue where air travel will be after a vaccine. It’s looking like we should have one sometime next year and once we do so we should all expect a spike in demand. Will it be 100%? No. Will it be 80%? Probably. There is a reason UA and DL hopped right back on SYD-LAX...

How long is it to take a plane out of long term storage? I guess it's probably not long enough to be a real problem as any growth of demand superior to want Qantas excepts will still takes weeks or (most probably) months to materialize. Even if they have to hurry, it will probably be cheaper than keeping their planes in short term storage which require more maintenance.

More importantly: Do you have any data that allows you to say how high demand will be next year? Frankly, at the moment, this is divination. An economist or a witch using chicken bones will be as efficient. So I guess that any company has to make a bet. Some will be right, most won't be, and even those who are may not be there at the moment it materializes. You seem to capitalize on a future vaccine but no one can say surely when it will be ready, how efficient it will be and what the concrete effect on travel trends will be. People must not confuse what they know with what they hope or need.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:27 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
For everyone saying this is the right decision I strongly disagree with you. Should Qantas send it’s 787s into short term storage? Yes. Why shouldn’t they send them into long term storage? They have 0 clue where air travel will be after a vaccine. It’s looking like we should have one sometime next year and once we do so we should all expect a spike in demand. Will it be 100%? No. Will it be 80%? Probably. There is a reason UA and DL hopped right back on SYD-LAX...


The Australian border is closed indefinitely. Qantas are not expecting it to open until the middle of next year at the earliest, and it is increasingly looking likely that it will be later than that. It will be at least 12 months, and quite probably longer, before Qantas has any need for these aircraft.

DL and UA are flying to Sydney for cargo, cargo, cargo, and cargo. The handful of passengers permitted to travel each day are an afterthought. SYD is capped at 350 arriving international passengers daily, across all flights, so each inbound flight is capped at about 30-70 passengers.
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Boof02671
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:42 pm

The storage facility MRO works the planes, not Qantas mechanics from LAX.
 
AEROFAN
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:48 pm

MSJYOP28Apilot wrote:
Australia has chosen the strategy of isolating itself from the rest of the world. This means that until a vaccine is widely available and distributed the borders are closed and few can travel to Australia. We are talking at least a year if not more before this happens. I applaud them for their forward thinking because airlines in America all still believe demand will be returning to normal by next spring.


Isn't UA and DL flying to Sydney or about to?
“You are not entitled to your opinion. You are entitled to your informed opinion. No one is entitled to be ignorant.” ~Harlan Ellison~
 
baje427
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:49 pm

People who think travel will rebound soon clearly know nothing about economics. Most major economies have seen double digit declines in economic activity we are essentially in a depression. Millions of people will lose their homes and banks will be in dire straits its likely another financial crisis will Greer us in 2021 if not sooner. Even if there is an effective vaccine it will take time to distribute. International travel probably wont rebound for another 5 to 10 years and who is to say another new virus wont emerge between then.
 
AEROFAN
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:50 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
For everyone saying this is the right decision I strongly disagree with you. Should Qantas send it’s 787s into short term storage? Yes. Why shouldn’t they send them into long term storage? They have 0 clue where air travel will be after a vaccine. It’s looking like we should have one sometime next year and once we do so we should all expect a spike in demand. Will it be 100%? No. Will it be 80%? Probably. There is a reason UA and DL hopped right back on SYD-LAX...


The Australian border is closed indefinitely. Qantas are not expecting it to open until the middle of next year at the earliest, and it is increasingly looking likely that it will be later than that. It will be at least 12 months, and quite probably longer, before Qantas has any need for these aircraft.

DL and UA are flying to Sydney for cargo, cargo, cargo, and cargo. The handful of passengers permitted to travel each day are an afterthought. SYD is capped at 350 arriving international passengers daily, across all flights, so each inbound flight is capped at about 30-70 passengers.


Thanks for the information on DL and UA flights. I was wondering what was going on there, given that it was said Australia had closed its borders.
“You are not entitled to your opinion. You are entitled to your informed opinion. No one is entitled to be ignorant.” ~Harlan Ellison~
 
32andBelow
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:22 pm

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
gaystudpilot wrote:
The airline industry will be lucky if demand returns to 75% of pre-Covid levels by 2024. The tentacles into related industries are vast and the economic impact will be huge. QANTAS and others are smart to hunker down for the long term. As demand returns it will not be a quick rebound and airlines will have time to rebuild — if they’re still around.



Indeed. The scale of this is not precedented. With so much demand lost permanently, and with what returns overwhelmingly likely not to look like pre C19 markets, it is difficult to say who will be here, and with what mission and scope over the next five years. Having that been said, I do agree that QF have made very hard, but good decisions over the past few months.

dcajet wrote:

QANTAS has a full mx base at LAX that can easily focus on these parked planes nearly 100 miles to the east. I don't believe they have such an arrangement in Alice Springs.


The LAX team is at a point now where we are as well trained as anyone in the system on the 789s. Ditto the 388s. As well, the supplies, tooling and space here are as good as anything likely to be found in the system. The 789s would all be kept here if that were a reasonable proposition. But... VCV is easily accessible and itself has decent space for a lot of the attending GSE & MX equipment as well.
you can’t know what demand is lost permanently 5 months in.
 
Jetport
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:00 pm

baje427 wrote:
People who think travel will rebound soon clearly know nothing about economics. Most major economies have seen double digit declines in economic activity we are essentially in a depression. Millions of people will lose their homes and banks will be in dire straits its likely another financial crisis will Greer us in 2021 if not sooner. Even if there is an effective vaccine it will take time to distribute. International travel probably wont rebound for another 5 to 10 years and who is to say another new virus wont emerge between then.


This post is ridiculously pessimistic. 5-10 years? Another virus?

Travel will return to 2019 levels by 2023 at the latest. I think it will be at 2019 levels in Q3 or Q4 2021. Remember, all we need is for the travelers and service workers of the world to get vaccinated. That should happen by mid-2021.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:27 pm

Jetport wrote:
baje427 wrote:
People who think travel will rebound soon clearly know nothing about economics. Most major economies have seen double digit declines in economic activity we are essentially in a depression. Millions of people will lose their homes and banks will be in dire straits its likely another financial crisis will Greer us in 2021 if not sooner. Even if there is an effective vaccine it will take time to distribute. International travel probably wont rebound for another 5 to 10 years and who is to say another new virus wont emerge between then.


This post is ridiculously pessimistic. 5-10 years? Another virus?

Travel will return to 2019 levels by 2023 at the latest. I think it will be at 2019 levels in Q3 or Q4 2021.


He offered an opinion. You offered an opinion. Neither of you knows with any certainty.

If we look across DL/UAAC//LH/IAG there is some consensus this is going to be years, not months. I don't recall any major carrier (top 20 by 2019 RPKm) saying this is going to be a 5+ year recovery but I rely on English-language news, so if somebody wants to correct me, please do.
 
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zeke
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:27 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
I find it strange to use the word mothball to describe the long term storage of airplanes.


I agree, stored or parked. Mothballed means permanently decommissioned to me.

Boof02671 wrote:
The storage facility MRO works the planes, not Qantas mechanics from LAX.


I think that depends on the task.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
MIflyer12
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:29 pm

zeke wrote:
Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
I find it strange to use the word mothball to describe the long term storage of airplanes.


I agree, stored or parked. Mothballed means permanently decommissioned to me.

[


It doesn't mean that to the people publishing Oxford English dictionaries:

TRANSITIVE VERB
[WITH OBJECT]
1Store (clothes) among or in mothballs.

‘He left muttering something about mothballing the suit until next year.’

More example sentencesSynonyms

1.1Stop using (a piece of equipment or a building) but keep it in good condition so that it can readily be used again.
‘The notion that the country can sustain a capable defence force by mothballing equipment is laughable.’
More example sentences

1.2Cancel or postpone work on (a plan or project)
‘plans to invest in four superstores have been mothballed’


https://www.lexico.com/en/definition/mothball
 
Boof02671
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:39 pm

zeke wrote:
Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
I find it strange to use the word mothball to describe the long term storage of airplanes.


I agree, stored or parked. Mothballed means permanently decommissioned to me.

Boof02671 wrote:
The storage facility MRO works the planes, not Qantas mechanics from LAX.


I think that depends on the task.

Ive dealt with it before. The MRO handles the storage maintenance.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:52 pm

gaystudpilot wrote:
The airline industry will be lucky if demand returns to 75% of pre-Covid levels by 2024. The tentacles into related industries are vast and the economic impact will be huge. QANTAS and others are smart to hunker down for the long term. As demand returns it will not be a quick rebound and airlines will have time to rebuild — if they’re still around.


I agree. I think that even if economic activity returns to something approximating pre-pandemic levels, the pandemic has demonstrated that online systems like Zoom and GoToMeeting are adequate for some portion of formerly in-person meeting. Certainly, flying 14 hours for a three-hour meeting is something that probably won't happen anymore.

There will always be a market for business travel, but I see it being some time until population growth soaks up the gap left by technology.
-Doc Lightning-

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NameOmitted
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:06 pm

Jetport wrote:
Remember, all we need is for the travelers and service workers of the world to get vaccinated. That should happen by mid-2021.

Well... That, and for said travelers to build their cash reserves up enough to travel.

If so, QANTAS can find the money to move the aircraft out of storage.

As for the vaccination, where is the influenza vaccine? We don't have one. We create a new formulation with every flu season that has some effect at reducing cases of influenza for that season, but that's about it. Would that be enough to restore confidence quickly?
 
32andBelow
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:24 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
Jetport wrote:
Remember, all we need is for the travelers and service workers of the world to get vaccinated. That should happen by mid-2021.

Well... That, and for said travelers to build their cash reserves up enough to travel.

If so, QANTAS can find the money to move the aircraft out of storage.

As for the vaccination, where is the influenza vaccine? We don't have one. We create a new formulation with every flu season that has some effect at reducing cases of influenza for that season, but that's about it. Would that be enough to restore confidence quickly?

Lots of stories about being REDUCING debt during this pandemic. People are going to be ready to go afte the vaccine with their visa.
 
Oykie
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:39 pm

It is probably a wise move by Qantas, but it is sad to see aviation to its knees. Knowing that the 787 is mostly made of Carbon fiber, it got me wondering if carbon fiber airplane is more suited for long term storage than aluminium plane?
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hawaiian717
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:40 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Lots of stories about being REDUCING debt during this pandemic. People are going to be ready to go afte the vaccine with their visa.


I think it depends on who you’re talking about. People who are still fully employed (such as because they were able to shift to working from home) have an opportunity to reduce debt because there is less to spend their money on right now; they’re not taking vacations or and for many they’re eating at home or doing less expensive take-away options instead of more expense in-restaurant fine dining.

But people in industries that are hurting more are seeing a lot of layoffs and even businesses shutting down, those people won’t be able to reduce debt and thus won’t be traveling as soon once travel starts spot open up.
 
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zeke
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:56 pm

Boof02671 wrote:
Ive dealt with it before. The MRO handles the storage maintenance.


So have I, and we had our own mechanics do the work.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Fri Aug 07, 2020 7:09 pm

The first use of "mothballed" that i recall was US warships (and cargo ships) put in long term storage after WWII, Korea and Vietnam. It was long term but with the ability to break out in case of emergency. I think the term just stuck with the US Air Force post WWII for their storage and salvage operations after the war too.
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    NameOmitted
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    Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

    Fri Aug 07, 2020 7:17 pm

    hawaiian717 wrote:

    I think it depends on who you’re talking about. People who are still fully employed (such as because they were able to shift to working from home) have an opportunity to reduce debt because there is less to spend their money on right now; they’re not taking vacations or and for many they’re eating at home or doing less expensive take-away options instead of more expense in-restaurant fine dining.

    But people in industries that are hurting more are seeing a lot of layoffs and even businesses shutting down, those people won’t be able to reduce debt and thus won’t be traveling as soon once travel starts spot open up.


    Additionally, from an economic standpoint reducing consumer debt is a sign of a lack of consumer confidence in spending. A general shifting of properties to getting oneself onto a long term stable economic footing.

    It means that there is less debt, but it also indicates less of a willingness to take on debt. It may be quite a lot of low revenue flying before that tend is overcome.
     
    frmrCapCadet
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    Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

    Fri Aug 07, 2020 7:18 pm

    I don't see how even successful vaccines could have a major travel safety effect before the end of next year, more likely mid-2022.
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    jayunited
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    Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

    Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:40 pm

    Nicknuzzii wrote:
    For everyone saying this is the right decision I strongly disagree with you. Should Qantas send it’s 787s into short term storage? Yes. Why shouldn’t they send them into long term storage? They have 0 clue where air travel will be after a vaccine. It’s looking like we should have one sometime next year and once we do so we should all expect a spike in demand. Will it be 100%? No. Will it be 80%? Probably. There is a reason UA and DL hopped right back on SYD-LAX...


    United has been flying LAX-SYD cargo flights since the early stages of this pandemic, opening the route up to around 40-50 passengers is practically meaningless, UA is on this route for cargo.

    I do agree no one knows what the future holds after a vaccine the truth is although a vaccine may (stress may) be available by the end of this year mass distribution of the vaccine won't happen until Q3 2021 according to most experts and even then it will take time to vaccinate a majority of the worlds population. Right now major governments around the world are buying up most if not all the early capacity so I wouldn't count on a vaccine being widely distributed in early 2021 at all.
     
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    Laulau
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    Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

    Fri Aug 07, 2020 9:26 pm

    gatibosgru wrote:
    Is there nowhere in Australia that they could park these?


    As the article says "The humidity in California is much lower than in Australia, so it’s much better for long-term storage of aircraft – the same reason why we’ve moved our A380s there".
     
    chrisair
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    Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

    Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:21 pm

    jayunited wrote:
    United has been flying LAX-SYD cargo flights since the early stages of this pandemic, opening the route up to around 40-50 passengers is practically meaningless, UA is on this route for cargo.


    I’ve wondered what kind of cargo they’re flying on those flights. It’s not like they can take the heavy haul stuff like a dedicated freighter can.
     
    enplaned
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    Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

    Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:45 pm

    Laulau wrote:
    gatibosgru wrote:
    Is there nowhere in Australia that they could park these?


    As the article says "The humidity in California is much lower than in Australia, so it’s much better for long-term storage of aircraft – the same reason why we’ve moved our A380s there".


    The desert parts of CA anyway. It's a state with a lot of different ecosystems - for example, San Francisco is famous for its fog, and that makes it not particularly dry.

    But the Mojave desert north and east of the LA basin, that's dry.
     
    jayunited
    Posts: 2887
    Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

    Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

    Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:42 pm

    chrisair wrote:
    jayunited wrote:
    United has been flying LAX-SYD cargo flights since the early stages of this pandemic, opening the route up to around 40-50 passengers is practically meaningless, UA is on this route for cargo.


    I’ve wondered what kind of cargo they’re flying on those flights. It’s not like they can take the heavy haul stuff like a dedicated freighter can.


    UA has been operating SFO-SYD passenger service (it never suspended this service) but in addition to daily SFO-SYD service UA has been operating cargo only flights 3x weekly LAX-SYD and 3x weekly SFO-SYD. So early on in cargo only flights UA has been operating 10x weekly flights (passenger and cargo only) between SFO-SYD-SFO. Many of our cargo only flights have operated to/from SYD with over 70,000 LBS of cargo. In some cases flights out of SYD have operated with over 95,000 LBS of cargo. So while UA does not have dedicated freighters a 77W and 789 (UA has operated both fleet types as cargo only flight to/from SYD) can accommodate a lot of cargo in the belly when there are no passengers on board.

    Now with UA restricted to around 40-50 passengers each flights you only need at most 2 LD3 containers for bags the remaining bags can be loaded in the bulk pit. Also UA is still operating 3x weekly cargo only flights SFO-SYD-SFO this in addition to our daily passenger flight out of SFO which is basically a cargo flight as well.

    Of the US3 UA was first to jump on the cargo only flights train and our Q2 cargo numbers show it was very lucrative for UA.
     
    Gangurru
    Posts: 101
    Joined: Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:30 pm

    Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

    Sat Aug 08, 2020 1:06 am

    exFWAOONW wrote:
    Revelation wrote:
    .....flying two 789s tail to tail than flying one A380......

    I don’t care what airplane we’re talking about, that’s one trick I want to see.


    Wing-tip flying could have merit. There are estimates of an immediate 5%-10% fuel efficiency gain if planes flew like geese.

    https://www.npr.org/2019/11/27/78344977 ... ave-energy
     
    Kent350787
    Posts: 1420
    Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

    Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

    Sat Aug 08, 2020 2:04 am

    QF is flying 763F and 748F on various routes, so doesn’t need freighters in the same way as some others (I’m standing at SYD as I type).

    I can see a parked QF 789, plus UA (at threshold for departure), NZ, Etihad and ANA, 350s from CX, Asiana, SQ and Vietnam, plus Emirates 773. There’s even a KR 333 and a China southern A380.

    But with closed internal borders and a 350 per day cap on arrivals, international passenger flight are going nowhere.
    S340/J31/146-300/F27/F50/Nord 262/Q100/200/E195/733/734/738/744/762/763/77W/788/789/320/321/332/333/345/359
     
    Kent350787
    Posts: 1420
    Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

    Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

    Sat Aug 08, 2020 2:44 am

    I suspect our cousins across the ditch are probably the only ones able to understand the overwhelming public support for a measured elimination strategy. Apart from direct border communities and the immediate area, the only access to NSW for Victorians is via SYD, with compulsory 14 day hotel quarantine. The two states share 1,000km land border, and together make up around 2/3 of the national population of around 25 million.

    The major focus is on improving the position of Victoria, which has seeded infections into NSW, and a small number into Queensland via a loophole and alleged criminal actvity. The public humilaiation of the two women who reintroduced COVID-19 to Queensland was overwhelming.

    Cathay sent its third 773 to ASP to day (interestingly two of the three are older than 744ERs QF just retired). I understand that space is becoming a premium, but it also isn't as dry as a true desert area. Yes it's arid, but there is regular water and the vegetation tends to be small trees rather than dust and grassland. The last time I visited we had constant rain for two days.
    S340/J31/146-300/F27/F50/Nord 262/Q100/200/E195/733/734/738/744/762/763/77W/788/789/320/321/332/333/345/359
     
    fly4ever78
    Posts: 78
    Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2017 10:17 pm

    Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

    Sat Aug 08, 2020 5:03 am

    baje427 wrote:
    People who think travel will rebound soon clearly know nothing about economics. Most major economies have seen double digit declines in economic activity we are essentially in a depression. Millions of people will lose their homes and banks will be in dire straits its likely another financial crisis will Greer us in 2021 if not sooner. Even if there is an effective vaccine it will take time to distribute. International travel probably wont rebound for another 5 to 10 years and who is to say another new virus wont emerge between then.


    10 years??!!!! You might as well dig your bunker now because if it takes that long for travel to come back, there won't be ANY economic activity left world wide. In addition, there won't be any airlines left to operate. It will be fun driving 40 hours from LA to NYC since the US has no viable rail transportation. I guess whatever airline remains will enjoy charging 600-1000% more for a ticket. Supply and demand and all...
     
    NYCVIE
    Posts: 284
    Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2016 11:01 pm

    Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

    Sat Aug 08, 2020 5:10 am

    Jetport wrote:
    baje427 wrote:
    People who think travel will rebound soon clearly know nothing about economics. Most major economies have seen double digit declines in economic activity we are essentially in a depression. Millions of people will lose their homes and banks will be in dire straits its likely another financial crisis will Greer us in 2021 if not sooner. Even if there is an effective vaccine it will take time to distribute. International travel probably wont rebound for another 5 to 10 years and who is to say another new virus wont emerge between then.


    This post is ridiculously pessimistic. 5-10 years? Another virus?

    Travel will return to 2019 levels by 2023 at the latest. I think it will be at 2019 levels in Q3 or Q4 2021. Remember, all we need is for the travelers and service workers of the world to get vaccinated. That should happen by mid-2021.


    Nicknuzzii wrote:
    For everyone saying this is the right decision I strongly disagree with you. Should Qantas send it’s 787s into short term storage? Yes. Why shouldn’t they send them into long term storage? They have 0 clue where air travel will be after a vaccine. It’s looking like we should have one sometime next year and once we do so we should all expect a spike in demand. Will it be 100%? No. Will it be 80%? Probably. There is a reason UA and DL hopped right back on SYD-LAX...


    2 things.

    1. It's interesting that most people have "the vaccine" as the benchmark for when things will quickly change but at least in the US, which I assume is QF's most important and lucrative intl market there are studies showing that less than 50% of the population actually intend on getting said vaccination, a percentage that has surprisingly been decreasing over the past few months.

    2. It's not even really about the vaccine anyways because once it does become safe to fly the economic effects that this crisis has had in terms of unemployment and the overall depletion of disposable income means that taking a trip is probably not going to be top of mind for a lot of people. I think sometimes people on here really underestimate the gravity of the situation air travel is in right now. In the US for example, although there have been "positive trends" in bookings this summer almost all the major US carriers are surviving off gov't support. Remember these are "positive trends" from negative bookings. Most carriers are losing millions every day. Even in a scenario where a vaccine is available demand won't just jump back. And in QF's case due to the geographical location of Australia probably much fewer people are going to want to take a 14 hour flight to the other side of the world for a vacation. As another poster pointed out, even internal borders are shut in Australia right now. At least for QF they make money off short haul.
     
    DavidByrne
    Posts: 1666
    Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

    Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

    Sat Aug 08, 2020 5:57 am

    Jetport wrote:
    This post is ridiculously pessimistic. 5-10 years? Another virus?

    Travel will return to 2019 levels by 2023 at the latest. I think it will be at 2019 levels in Q3 or Q4 2021. Remember, all we need is for the travelers and service workers of the world to get vaccinated. That should happen by mid-2021.

    And I would say that your post is ridiculously optimistic. I just love the certainty with which you state that we'll be back at 2019 levels in 12 months from now. Since the pandemic began, we've had people postulating every few weeks that it will all be over in three months, six months, whenever. Every such prediction by those who see this as "a little flu" has been completely and utterly wrong. The world has changed, and it's not a short-term change.

    There are still many, many uncertainties. One which no one has mentioned is the possibility that a vaccine (if one can be developed, tested and mass-produced) may only provide short-term immunity. Video conferencing will take away a significant portion of the business travel market, not least because companies are on the bones of their bums and are very unlikely to splash out on travel unless it's essential. And unemployed people (of whom there are many, and bound to be many, many more before we're through) don't tend to go on expensive foreign holidays. Governments will be paying back the huge sums they've borrowed for years to come, using your and my taxes, which are bound to rise in the medium term. There is no free lunch here.

    I assume you're buying up airline shares now while they're cheap, to sell them in a year from now?.
    This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
     
    User avatar
    TWA772LR
    Posts: 7292
    Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2011 6:12 am

    Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

    Sat Aug 08, 2020 6:13 am

    Kent350787 wrote:
    RyanairGuru wrote:
    Kent350787 wrote:

    Mainland Australia is roughly the same size as the US lower 48. SYD-PER is a similar distance to LAX-JFK. Think of MEL as BOS and CNS as MIA and you won't be far wrong.


    While largely true, SYD-PER is quite a bit shorter than LAX-JFK. This is in large part because Sydney is quite far south and therefore roughly on the same line of latitude as Perth. The comparison in US terms would be LAX to South Carolina: LAX-ATL is slightly shorter than SYD-PER while LAX-CLT is slightly longer. BNE-PER is almost exactly the same distance as LAX-IAD, noting that in (approximate) north-south terms BNE-SYD and IAD-CHS are roughly the same distance.

    Fair comments overall - but I thionk the general point still stands. People form the US, and to an extent Europe, really underestimate the size of Australia.

    Aint that the truth. I knew Australia was huge but I didn't realize SYD-CNS was 3 hours. When I came back to the US my dad said he'd like to rent a car and drive around for a few days, then I showed him a map of the lower 48 with Australia on it, thats when he realized it takes more than a few days to drive around Australia.
    When wasn't America great?


    The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
     
    32andBelow
    Posts: 4978
    Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

    Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

    Sat Aug 08, 2020 7:13 am

    DavidByrne wrote:
    Jetport wrote:
    This post is ridiculously pessimistic. 5-10 years? Another virus?

    Travel will return to 2019 levels by 2023 at the latest. I think it will be at 2019 levels in Q3 or Q4 2021. Remember, all we need is for the travelers and service workers of the world to get vaccinated. That should happen by mid-2021.

    And I would say that your post is ridiculously optimistic. I just love the certainty with which you state that we'll be back at 2019 levels in 12 months from now. Since the pandemic began, we've had people postulating every few weeks that it will all be over in three months, six months, whenever. Every such prediction by those who see this as "a little flu" has been completely and utterly wrong. The world has changed, and it's not a short-term change.

    There are still many, many uncertainties. One which no one has mentioned is the possibility that a vaccine (if one can be developed, tested and mass-produced) may only provide short-term immunity. Video conferencing will take away a significant portion of the business travel market, not least because companies are on the bones of their bums and are very unlikely to splash out on travel unless it's essential. And unemployed people (of whom there are many, and bound to be many, many more before we're through) don't tend to go on expensive foreign holidays. Governments will be paying back the huge sums they've borrowed for years to come, using your and my taxes, which are bound to rise in the medium term. There is no free lunch here.

    I assume you're buying up airline shares now while they're cheap, to sell them in a year from now?.

    Air travel has gone from 45k a day to 800k a day in 5 months. After the vaccine it’ll be back fairly quick.

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