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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sat Aug 08, 2020 1:48 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Air travel has gone from 45k a day to 800k a day in 5 months. After the vaccine it’ll be back fairly quick.

That will explain why many airlines are suggesting they'll be smaller long-term compared with 2019. I assume you know something they don't?

Unfortunately it isn't just air travel/vaccine driving demand. Some people saved more this lockdown (tough to spend on items of value or, like myself, drove less) , most lost income.

Travel is conventions. That won't restart instantly.

Some fraction of travel was for cruises, considering how many ships were sent to be scrapped, there won't be a quick recovery.

What we saw was a partial recovery in VFR. Visit Friends and Relatives always recovers first. Until business travel can be low risk, it will be constrained. Qantas needs that travel for long haul.

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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sat Aug 08, 2020 2:40 pm

fly4ever78 wrote:
10 years??!!!! You might as well dig your bunker now because if it takes that long for travel to come back, there won't be ANY economic activity left world wide. In addition, there won't be any airlines left to operate. It will be fun driving 40 hours from LA to NYC since the US has no viable rail transportation. I guess whatever airline remains will enjoy charging 600-1000% more for a ticket. Supply and demand and all...

Yes, and throughout the 2020s stricter environmental laws will be kicking in too.

I think it's a good time to think of how much air travel should be happening anyway.

NYCVIE wrote:
In the US for example, although there have been "positive trends" in bookings this summer almost all the major US carriers are surviving off gov't support. Remember these are "positive trends" from negative bookings. Most carriers are losing millions every day.

Right. Most Q2 earnings reports showed airlines carrying 10-15% of year ago figures. Then with all the empty seats you can't expect good yields on those routes, at least the ones with any competition at all.

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Aint that the truth. I knew Australia was huge but I didn't realize SYD-CNS was 3 hours. When I came back to the US my dad said he'd like to rent a car and drive around for a few days, then I showed him a map of the lower 48 with Australia on it, thats when he realized it takes more than a few days to drive around Australia.

And the average rental car isn't going to be suited for various parts of the road network.

I've been caught out by that myself on a few ski holidays in the US, and lived to tell the tale.

Just because there's some lines on the map doesn't mean that you should plan on taking a rental car there.
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sat Aug 08, 2020 6:29 pm

Gotta love all the pessimistic opinions on here about how fast travel will bounce back when there’s a vaccine. One on hand you’ve got people saying demand is pent up so it will be quicker than some think. On the other hand, some say extreme numbers like 5-10 years......really? Airlines don’t know...No. One. Knows. Plain and simple.
 
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sat Aug 08, 2020 6:48 pm

Considering many foreign airlines like CX, EK, SQ, UA, AC etc are flying cargo only flights on passenger planes into Australia why isn't Qantas doing the same? They could be doing it with the 789 for cargo flights to popular destinations like SIN, PVG, HKG, etc ?
 
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sat Aug 08, 2020 7:03 pm

777luver wrote:
Gotta love all the pessimistic opinions on here about how fast travel will bounce back when there’s a vaccine. One on hand you’ve got people saying demand is pent up so it will be quicker than some think. On the other hand, some say extreme numbers like 5-10 years......really? Airlines don’t know...No. One. Knows. Plain and simple.

Right, airlines don't know, but:

dcajet wrote:
https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/qantas-to-send-most-of-its-boeing-787-to-the-desert-for-storage

According to this publication, QANTAS now sees any significant reactivation of international flying a year away; beginning in September it will send most of the 11-strong 787 fleet for long term storage to California's Mojave desert. A few will stay behind in Australia.

So a multi-billion dollar corporation with access to a lot of expert advice and data is saying there will be so little international flying for the next year they're going to send most of their most modern and efficient fleet to the desert for storage. This is after retiring their remaining 747s early and mothballing A380s through 2023 as well.

Seems they don't know but are confident enough to spend money to retire and mothball a lot of aircraft.
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redroo
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sat Aug 08, 2020 10:04 pm

So... two 787 are being kept in Australia for govt repatriation work. The rest are being parked in the desert until travel recovers.

The 330s are seen as more useful and cheaper to operate around Australia and region for cargo than the 787s. I guess but not confirmed that they’d rather not abuse on of their new shiny 787 when the 330 already do the domestic and regional cargo work.

As for international resumption... a long way away. The state borders need to relax before we get to the country’s border.

There is mandatory hotel quarantine for 14 days for all arrivals into Australia so there are also limits on pax per day.

I think QF are being prudent. Sad. But prudent.
 
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sat Aug 08, 2020 11:51 pm

andrew1996 wrote:
Considering many foreign airlines like CX, EK, SQ, UA, AC etc are flying cargo only flights on passenger planes into Australia why isn't Qantas doing the same? They could be doing it with the 789 for cargo flights to popular destinations like SIN, PVG, HKG, etc ?


Because Qantas has a dedicated cargo fleet. If they felt the 789s could supplement this fleet, then they would be flying.
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sun Aug 09, 2020 12:01 am

Boof02671 wrote:
zeke wrote:
Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
I find it strange to use the word mothball to describe the long term storage of airplanes.


I agree, stored or parked. Mothballed means permanently decommissioned to me.

Boof02671 wrote:
The storage facility MRO works the planes, not Qantas mechanics from LAX.


I think that depends on the task.

Ive dealt with it before. The MRO handles the storage maintenance.


The storage maintenance yes.
Any other items - such as AD's, Service Bulletin updates and ultimately return to service will go to in house mechanics or the preferred contractor of the airline.
I passed through VCV last week and an airline and Boeing had contracted one of the MRO's from elsewhere in the country to perform work. Not the storage yard.

With the amount of airplanes stored and most of those being newer ones - most airlines plan on being very involved in non storage work and return to service.

As a contract maintenance rep who airlines call for help with this; I speak with certainty on this.
 
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sun Aug 09, 2020 12:16 am

andrew1996 wrote:
Considering many foreign airlines like CX, EK, SQ, UA, AC etc are flying cargo only flights on passenger planes into Australia why isn't Qantas doing the same?


Qantas is doing the same, I regularly see QF A330s in HKG doing cargo only flights, eg QF30 yesterday.
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sun Aug 09, 2020 12:43 am

32andBelow wrote:
you can’t know what demand is lost permanently 5 months in.



With detailed specificity? Not especially, no. But as has been mentioned already, companies like QF have access to information you very likely do not. There are confidentiality related reasons why I will not be more specific, but it would be safe to assume QF see something like a 70% recovery over the next five years. This is in line with most of the world's major carriers, though that may show to be somewhat optimistic.

The US3 are a somewhat different story as they are now being almost entirely propped up by the CARES act. As an increasingly impoverished american taxbase continues to deal with issues of their own, patience for waste like that will dissolve. Eventually you will see more responsible reductions there as well.


32andBelow wrote:
Lots of stories about being REDUCING debt during this pandemic. People are going to be ready to go afte the vaccine with their visa.


With what money? You may not fully appreciate this, but with UI Enhancement ending —along with the natural lifetime of that program expiring anyway— and no real prospect for relief in sight, the destruction of significant percentages of employment will only increase. This does not leave a lot of room for an industry dependant not only on discretionary spending, but large per capita portions of it at that.

DocLightning wrote:
I agree. I think that even if economic activity returns to something approximating pre-pandemic levels, the pandemic has demonstrated that online systems like Zoom and GoToMeeting are adequate for some portion of formerly in-person meeting. Certainly, flying 14 hours for a three-hour meeting is something that probably won't happen anymore.

There will always be a market for business travel, but I see it being some time until population growth soaks up the gap left by technology.


Indeed, but even that may not happen all the way. It is not unreasonable to assume that shareholders and investors in general are going to be appalled to see already thin margins evaporate against the expense of anachronistic habits like non-essential —which, frankly, is almost all— corporate travel. The options around most corporate travel are far too compelling to ignore, and I would agree that it is foolish for people to assume that companies —and even gov'ts— are not somehow learning that at this time.

Some travel will come back, but the hordes of polo shirt clad sales bros filling up convention centers are principally a thing of the past.


Boof02671 wrote:
The storage facility MRO works the planes, not Qantas mechanics from LAX.


I am in that hangar twice a week. Your claim is categorically false.


zeke wrote:

So have I, and we had our own mechanics do the work.


This is actually true for a lot of airlines. Both VCV & MHV are well suited to accommodate this as well.

MohawkWeekend wrote:
The first use of "mothballed" that i recall was US warships (and cargo ships) put in long term storage after WWII, Korea and Vietnam. It was long term but with the ability to break out in case of emergency. I think the term just stuck with the US Air Force post WWII for their storage and salvage operations after the war too.


That is the intended meaning. But as with many things, there are varied levels of this.

NameOmitted wrote:
It means that there is less debt, but it also indicates less of a willingness to take on debt. It may be quite a lot of low revenue flying before that tend is overcome.


Yes. As well, it also means other less expensive options increase in their appeal.

baje427 wrote:
People who think travel will rebound soon clearly know nothing about economics. Most major economies have seen double digit declines in economic activity we are essentially in a depression. Millions of people will lose their homes and banks will be in dire straits its likely another financial crisis will Greer us in 2021 if not sooner. Even if there is an effective vaccine it will take time to distribute. International travel probably wont rebound for another 5 to 10 years and who is to say another new virus wont emerge between then.


I will not go so far as to say they know nothing, but I do agree that their focus is very specific to commercial aviation and not accountive of the larger factors surrounding the industry.

5 - 10 years is not an unreasonable prognostication for this matter.

fly4ever78 wrote:

10 years??!!!! You might as well dig your bunker now because if it takes that long for travel to come back, there won't be ANY economic activity left world wide. In addition, there won't be any airlines left to operate. It will be fun driving 40 hours from LA to NYC since the US has no viable rail transportation. I guess whatever airline remains will enjoy charging 600-1000% more for a ticket. Supply and demand and all...


It is difficult to accept for a lot of people, and quite reasonably so. But almost everything you are saying here is a possibility here. Nothing is off the table when it comes to how bad this will get.

NYCVIE wrote:

2 . . . In the US for example, although there have been "positive trends" in bookings this summer almost all the major US carriers are surviving off gov't support. Remember these are "positive trends" from negative bookings. Most carriers are losing millions every day. Even in a scenario where a vaccine is available demand won't just jump back.


:checkmark:

Not stated enough in this thread is the distortive effect CARES is having on the industry. By the end of the year, when unemployment is closer to 60 million, there will be no tolerance for this from the public at large.

DavidByrne wrote:

I assume you're buying up airline shares now while they're cheap, to sell them in a year from now?.


Heh. I would not if I were him. Or anyone.

DavidByrne wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Air travel has gone from 45k a day to 800k a day in 5 months. After the vaccine it’ll be back fairly quick.

That will explain why many airlines are suggesting they'll be smaller long-term compared with 2019. I assume you know something they don't?


If he knows of a quick solution to a massive economic Depression, I do wish he will share.

csturdiv wrote:

Because Qantas has a dedicated cargo fleet. If they felt the 789s could supplement this fleet, then they would be flying.


Yes. And this is in addition to the lift QF get from Atlas as well.


7673Mech wrote:
The storage maintenance yes.
Any other items - such as AD's, Service Bulletin updates and ultimately return to service will go to in house mechanics or the preferred contractor of the airline.
I passed through VCV last week and an airline and Boeing had contracted one of the MRO's from elsewhere in the country to perform work. Not the storage yard.

With the amount of airplanes stored and most of those being newer ones - most airlines plan on being very involved in non storage work and return to service.

As a contract maintenance rep who airlines call for help with this; I speak with certainty on this.


:checkmark:

Yep.

And QF are more involved than most. It will be in-house for all RTS items & periodics.
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sun Aug 09, 2020 3:28 am

DavidByrne wrote:
Yes, countries which have eliminated or very significantly suppressed the virus will not be willing to forfeit their situation by allowing entry by unvaccinated tourists - that would be madness. So unvaccinated people will have a choice: go somewhere where the virus still rages and run the risk of getting infected, or stay home.


A widely available vaccine would make Australia and NZ's choices relatively simple, and both QF and NZ could put part of their international fleets back into passenger service.

The real problem is when both countries have reached elimination without a vaccine being available and infections in other countries remaining high. This is why parking the long-haul fleet is the right choice atm.
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:24 am

Kent350787 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Yes, countries which have eliminated or very significantly suppressed the virus will not be willing to forfeit their situation by allowing entry by unvaccinated tourists - that would be madness. So unvaccinated people will have a choice: go somewhere where the virus still rages and run the risk of getting infected, or stay home.


A widely available vaccine would make Australia and NZ's choices relatively simple, and both QF and NZ could put part of their international fleets back into passenger service.

The real problem is when both countries have reached elimination without a vaccine being available and infections in other countries remaining high. This is why parking the long-haul fleet is the right choice atm.

Borders closed whilst other countries struggle is a viable suppression strategy but ultimately not sustainable. For example NZ's biggest export is tourism; it can remain closed for a year but it can't do this for four years without hollowing out whole sections of its economy and entering a long and sustained depression.

The vaccine is the golden nugget but as some have suggested low take-ups could be a problem in some countries. I would think many countries will be looking for a current vaccine stamp within an arriving passenger's passport before allowing entry. Many African countries already do this for Yellow Fever so it is not a new concept. As far as travel insurance is concerned, I doubt any future policy will provide Covid19 cover for people who choose to not inoculate against the virus. Between border controls and insurance requirements, anti-vaxxers will have to accept that they are unlikely to be able to travel internationally for many years to come.
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sun Aug 09, 2020 6:10 am

tullamarine wrote:
[
Borders closed whilst other countries struggle is a viable suppression strategy but ultimately not sustainable. For example NZ's biggest export is tourism; it can remain closed for a year but it can't do this for four years without hollowing out whole sections of its economy and entering a long and sustained depression.


It is a very thorny problem, as I've stated in other threads. WIthout a vaccine, opening our borders=government sanctioned deaths unless very, very, very carefully managed. Our total covid death numbers are 2-3% of comparable (numerically) populations such as Texas or Florida.
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sun Aug 09, 2020 6:18 am

dcajet wrote:
https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/qantas-to-send-most-of-its-boeing-787-to-the-desert-for-storage

According to this publication, QANTAS now sees any significant reactivation of international flying a year away; beginning in September it will send most of the 11-strong 787 fleet for long term storage to California's Mojave desert. A few will stay behind in Australia.


Why send them all the way to the Mojave desert in the US? Australia has lots of deserts where aircraft could be stored.
 
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sun Aug 09, 2020 6:40 am

flyingclrs727 wrote:
dcajet wrote:
https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/qantas-to-send-most-of-its-boeing-787-to-the-desert-for-storage

According to this publication, QANTAS now sees any significant reactivation of international flying a year away; beginning in September it will send most of the 11-strong 787 fleet for long term storage to California's Mojave desert. A few will stay behind in Australia.


Why send them all the way to the Mojave desert in the US? Australia has lots of deserts where aircraft could be stored.


Not really. There is only one storage facility in Australia (ASP) and, as already pointed out, MJV is significantly more convenient for accessing MX etc. MJV is 90 minutes drive from LAX, ASP is 3 hours flight from SYD/MEL. I also wouldn't be shocked if storage prices are lower in the US, but can't say for sure.
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Capricorn
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sun Aug 09, 2020 7:07 am

In light of the uncertainties it is the right decision by QF to out those birds into long therm storage. Some airlines might have the financial funds or government backers to gamble on a speedy recovery, but I don't think that QF is among them. Furthermore the AUS government has communicated clearly under which circumstances they are willing to open up again, and I don't think that these circumstances will be met within 1 year (vaccine might be available but not yet distributed enough).

777luver wrote:
Gotta love all the pessimistic opinions on here about how fast travel will bounce back when there’s a vaccine. One on hand you’ve got people saying demand is pent up so it will be quicker than some think. On the other hand, some say extreme numbers like 5-10 years......really? Airlines don’t know...No. One. Knows. Plain and simple.


While I agree that there is a lot of uncertainty about the air travel market at the moment, I however think that the IATA projection of a return by 2024 is realistic. A vaccine probably effectively prevents C19, but if that is enough to automatically put ALL the ppl back on planes is far from a certainty. Behaviours change during a crisis changes, currently the RV market is booming as well as domestic driving vacations in certain countries. Maybe these forms of vacation will remain popular even after a speedy introduction of a C19 vaccine. Furthermore the vaccine itself could be troublesome. There are quite a few anti-vaxxers around, ppl who might choose not to travel over getting vaccinated. Very unfortunately air travel might be one of the biggest losers coming out of this crisis.

These developments in addition to the projected evaporation of some business travel will lead many airlines, but especially the legacy carriers to be conservative, which means parking bird and taking a wait and see approach.
 
B787register
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sun Aug 09, 2020 8:02 am

Do we know which particular 787s are off to storage?
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zeke
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sun Aug 09, 2020 8:46 am

B787register wrote:
Do we know which particular 787s are off to storage?


I am hearing all of the JQ ones and some QF.
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redroo
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sun Aug 09, 2020 10:49 am

zeke wrote:
B787register wrote:
Do we know which particular 787s are off to storage?


I am hearing all of the JQ ones and some QF.


Haven’t had it confirmed about JQ but it’s definitely all but two of the QF ones. Two are being kept onshore for emergencies.
 
gabep
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sun Aug 09, 2020 3:55 pm

Has there been any public explanation for why the B789s are being parked rather than the A333s? It would seem to me that given the B787’s technical advantages over the A330’s in cargo volume, payload, fuel efficiency, etc. it would make more sense to fly the Boeing. Any insight into the Qantas thesis?

Gabep
 
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sun Aug 09, 2020 6:57 pm

gabep wrote:
Has there been any public explanation for why the B789s are being parked rather than the A333s? It would seem to me that given the B787’s technical advantages over the A330’s in cargo volume, payload, fuel efficiency, etc. it would make more sense to fly the Boeing. Any insight into the Qantas thesis?

Gabep


Keeping the re-sale value of the 787s high by keeping the cycles low, just in case. Also there might be power py the hour engine contracts? Thats my guess and the higher opersting cost of the 333 might not be not a big problem due to low utilisation.
 
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sun Aug 09, 2020 7:20 pm

gabep wrote:
Has there been any public explanation for why the B789s are being parked rather than the A333s? It would seem to me that given the B787’s technical advantages over the A330’s in cargo volume, payload, fuel efficiency, etc. it would make more sense to fly the Boeing. Any insight into the Qantas thesis?

Gabep


Qantas are not obligated to provide such information to the public, a.net or any particular person? Why, or for what purpose, would they and am curious why you think they should?
 
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zeke
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sun Aug 09, 2020 7:55 pm

gabep wrote:
Has there been any public explanation for why the B789s are being parked rather than the A333s? It would seem to me that given the B787’s technical advantages over the A330’s in cargo volume, payload, fuel efficiency, etc. it would make more sense to fly the Boeing. Any insight into the Qantas thesis?

Gabep


Just maybe there is a differamce between a.net folklaw and commercial reality.
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sun Aug 09, 2020 9:12 pm

Vicenza wrote:
gabep wrote:
Has there been any public explanation for why the B789s are being parked rather than the A333s? It would seem to me that given the B787’s technical advantages over the A330’s in cargo volume, payload, fuel efficiency, etc. it would make more sense to fly the Boeing. Any insight into the Qantas thesis?

Gabep


Qantas are not obligated to provide such information to the public, a.net or any particular person? Why, or for what purpose, would they and am curious why you think they should?


He's not demanding a 'statement' from Qantas, he's asking If anyone knows why the 787 is being mothballed over the A330 ? I would presume that's based on curiosity, and a perfectly legitimate question to ask on an AV board. But then again this is a.net of course... :?
 
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sun Aug 09, 2020 9:39 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
gabep wrote:
Has there been any public explanation for why the B789s are being parked rather than the A333s? It would seem to me that given the B787’s technical advantages over the A330’s in cargo volume, payload, fuel efficiency, etc. it would make more sense to fly the Boeing. Any insight into the Qantas thesis?

Gabep


Keeping the re-sale value of the 787s high by keeping the cycles low, just in case. Also there might be power py the hour engine contracts? Thats my guess and the higher opersting cost of the 333 might not be not a big problem due to low utilisation.

Engine maintenance contracts have become more sophisticated over time. A330 contracts based on age, unless they lapsed, will be considered 'soft' compared to those for the 787. Also, CF6 contracts are finite with prescribed rights of renewal, but at floating rates, whereas for later engines, rates can be fixed cradle to grave, and there are also 'holiday' clauses when aircraft are stored (RR two tier - engine on / off wing).
 
aschachter
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sun Aug 09, 2020 10:17 pm

Could it be something to do with the A330-300s being an easier task to substitute to do domestic work as well as current International Work and Freight Work and also, QF can bring in extra capacity easier with the A330-200s (which are mostly stored at Avalon) as it would be the same pilot group, rather than the 787 pilot group?
 
redroo
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Sun Aug 09, 2020 11:44 pm

I’ve been told the 787 engine are power by hour and therefore more cash out the door. Cash is king at the moment.
 
eamondzhang
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Mon Aug 10, 2020 12:03 am

And shall I add, given the fuel price right now the difference between fuel costs for A330 and 789 is not as substantial (shall I use the word minimal...) Of course we're not talking about USA flights tho, only those within A330's capabilities.

Michael
 
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Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Mon Aug 10, 2020 12:04 am

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
But as has been mentioned already, companies like QF have access to information you very likely do not.


I would imagine all major airlines including Qantas have access to large amounts of economic data and forecasts, prepared by an in house team and from external sources. Some of those external sources are probably economists in the Australian central bank, trade division etc. An airline the size of Qantas most definitely has an inside line to the Australian govt and are getting info from them.

What I think a lot of people are forgetting is this is an Australian company. Comparing them to the US airlines isn't really an apples to apples comparison. If there's "pent up demand" in the U.S., that won't affect Qantas one bit if there are still restrictions on entries to Australia.

Australia is a wonderful place. I loved every minute of my time there last year and hope to go back sometime soon. Preferably on a QF A380. :D
 
moa999
Posts: 947
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Mon Aug 10, 2020 2:38 am

At the moment, no-one including all the government has a clue.

It's a guessing game - will we get the Vic spread under control, will NSW blowup.
Can suppression really work or will you continue to get Vic style breakouts.
When will a vaccine be available and how long will it last. Can you make it compulsory or will objectors mean elimination is impossible.
 
Ziyulu
Posts: 906
Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:35 am

Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Mon Aug 10, 2020 3:53 am

That is great news for me. More 3-3-3 seating aircraft to avoid.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4975
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Mon Aug 10, 2020 6:10 am

chrisair wrote:
DarkSnowyNight wrote:
But as has been mentioned already, companies like QF have access to information you very likely do not.


I would imagine all major airlines including Qantas have access to large amounts of economic data and forecasts, prepared by an in house team and from external sources. Some of those external sources are probably economists in the Australian central bank, trade division etc. An airline the size of Qantas most definitely has an inside line to the Australian govt and are getting info from them.

What I think a lot of people are forgetting is this is an Australian company. Comparing them to the US airlines isn't really an apples to apples comparison. If there's "pent up demand" in the U.S., that won't affect Qantas one bit if there are still restrictions on entries to Australia.

Australia is a wonderful place. I loved every minute of my time there last year and hope to go back sometime soon. Preferably on a QF A380. :D

Your view of an airline planning depart is grossly overstated
 
User avatar
vhtje
Posts: 1199
Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 12:40 pm

Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Mon Aug 10, 2020 7:32 am

gaystudpilot wrote:
The airline industry will be lucky if demand returns to 75% of pre-Covid levels by 2024. The tentacles into related industries are vast and the economic impact will be huge. QANTAS and others are smart to hunker down for the long term. As demand returns it will not be a quick rebound and airlines will have time to rebuild — if they’re still around.


Agreed. But, just as the economic impact of COVID-19 will be uneven, so will recovery be uneven. It will be interesting to see how an uneven recovery impacts airlines. My guess is that airlines that rely on huge connecting traffic through a megahub will suffer for longer than a carrier like QF, with a huge domestic network from which it earns big revenues.
I only turn left when boarding aircraft. Well, mostly. All right, sometimes. OH OKAY - rarely.
 
Sokes
Posts: 1675
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:44 am

NameOmitted wrote:
Jetport wrote:
Remember, all we need is for the travelers and service workers of the world to get vaccinated. That should happen by mid-2021.

Well... That, and for said travelers to build their cash reserves up enough to travel.

Helicopter money
Germany had a currency reform after WW2. Everybody got the same amount. It was a miraculous restart of the economy.
I don't promote deficit spending normally. But this is not normally.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
RickNRoll
Posts: 1869
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:30 am

Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Mon Aug 10, 2020 11:15 am

gatibosgru wrote:
Is there nowhere in Australia that they could park these?


Australia is mostly desert. Not too much in the way of infrastructure though.
 
VHOGU
Posts: 60
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:50 am

Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Mon Aug 10, 2020 12:44 pm

gabep wrote:
Has there been any public explanation for why the B789s are being parked rather than the A333s? It would seem to me that given the B787’s technical advantages over the A330’s in cargo volume, payload, fuel efficiency, etc. it would make more sense to fly the Boeing. Any insight into the Qantas thesis?

Gabep

It might have something to do with who crews them, and who is currently stood down. I believe a lot of domestic Cabin crew are Dual endorsed on b737 and a330, where the long haul crew which are more likely to be stood down until next year operated the b787. Just a guess.
 
robsaw
Posts: 443
Joined: Sun Dec 28, 2008 7:14 am

Re: QANTAS to mothball most of the 787 fleet

Mon Aug 10, 2020 3:42 pm

32andBelow wrote:
chrisair wrote:
DarkSnowyNight wrote:
But as has been mentioned already, companies like QF have access to information you very likely do not.


I would imagine all major airlines including Qantas have access to large amounts of economic data and forecasts, prepared by an in house team and from external sources. Some of those external sources are probably economists in the Australian central bank, trade division etc. An airline the size of Qantas most definitely has an inside line to the Australian govt and are getting info from them.

What I think a lot of people are forgetting is this is an Australian company. Comparing them to the US airlines isn't really an apples to apples comparison. If there's "pent up demand" in the U.S., that won't affect Qantas one bit if there are still restrictions on entries to Australia.

Australia is a wonderful place. I loved every minute of my time there last year and hope to go back sometime soon. Preferably on a QF A380. :D

Your view of an airline planning depart is grossly overstated


And whatever forecasts they are using are based upon large uncertainties. Still comes down to your guess is as good as mine.

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