you can’t know what demand is lost permanently 5 months in.
With detailed specificity? Not especially, no. But as has been mentioned already, companies like QF have access to information you very likely do not. There are confidentiality related reasons why I will not be more specific, but it would be safe to assume QF see something like a 70% recovery over the next five years. This is in line with most of the world's major carriers, though that may show to be somewhat optimistic.
The US3 are a somewhat different story as they are now being almost entirely propped up by the CARES act. As an increasingly impoverished american taxbase continues to deal with issues of their own, patience for waste like that will dissolve. Eventually you will see more responsible reductions there as well.
Lots of stories about being REDUCING debt during this pandemic. People are going to be ready to go afte the vaccine with their visa.
With what money? You may not fully appreciate this, but with UI Enhancement ending —along with the natural lifetime of that program expiring anyway— and no real prospect for relief in sight, the destruction of significant percentages of employment will only increase. This does not leave a lot of room for an industry dependant not only on discretionary spending, but large per capita portions of it at that.
I agree. I think that even if economic activity returns to something approximating pre-pandemic levels, the pandemic has demonstrated that online systems like Zoom and GoToMeeting are adequate for some portion of formerly in-person meeting. Certainly, flying 14 hours for a three-hour meeting is something that probably won't happen anymore.
There will always be a market for business travel, but I see it being some time until population growth soaks up the gap left by technology.
Indeed, but even that may not happen all the way. It is not unreasonable to assume that shareholders and investors in general are going to be appalled to see already thin margins evaporate against the expense of anachronistic habits like non-essential —which, frankly, is almost all— corporate travel. The options around most corporate travel are far too compelling to ignore, and I would agree that it is foolish for people to assume that companies —and even gov'ts— are not somehow learning that at this time.
Some travel will come back, but the hordes of polo shirt clad sales bros filling up convention centers are principally a thing of the past.
The storage facility MRO works the planes, not Qantas mechanics from LAX.
I am in that hangar twice a week. Your claim is categorically false.
So have I, and we had our own mechanics do the work.
This is actually true for a lot of airlines. Both VCV & MHV are well suited to accommodate this as well.
The first use of "mothballed" that i recall was US warships (and cargo ships) put in long term storage after WWII, Korea and Vietnam. It was long term but with the ability to break out in case of emergency. I think the term just stuck with the US Air Force post WWII for their storage and salvage operations after the war too.
That is the intended meaning. But as with many things, there are varied levels of this.
It means that there is less debt, but it also indicates less of a willingness to take on debt. It may be quite a lot of low revenue flying before that tend is overcome.
Yes. As well, it also means other less expensive options increase in their appeal.
People who think travel will rebound soon clearly know nothing about economics. Most major economies have seen double digit declines in economic activity we are essentially in a depression. Millions of people will lose their homes and banks will be in dire straits its likely another financial crisis will Greer us in 2021 if not sooner. Even if there is an effective vaccine it will take time to distribute. International travel probably wont rebound for another 5 to 10 years and who is to say another new virus wont emerge between then.
I will not go so far as to say they know nothing
, but I do agree that their focus is very specific to commercial aviation and not accountive of the larger factors surrounding the industry.
5 - 10 years is not an unreasonable prognostication for this matter.
10 years??!!!! You might as well dig your bunker now because if it takes that long for travel to come back, there won't be ANY economic activity left world wide. In addition, there won't be any airlines left to operate. It will be fun driving 40 hours from LA to NYC since the US has no viable rail transportation. I guess whatever airline remains will enjoy charging 600-1000% more for a ticket. Supply and demand and all...
It is difficult to accept for a lot of people, and quite reasonably so. But almost everything you are saying here is
a possibility here. Nothing is off the table when it comes to how bad this will get.
2 . . . In the US for example, although there have been "positive trends" in bookings this summer almost all the major US carriers are surviving off gov't support. Remember these are "positive trends" from negative bookings. Most carriers are losing millions every day. Even in a scenario where a vaccine is available demand won't just jump back.
Not stated enough in this thread is the distortive effect CARES is having on the industry. By the end of the year, when unemployment is closer to 60 million, there will be no tolerance for this from the public at large.
I assume you're buying up airline shares now while they're cheap, to sell them in a year from now?.
Heh. I would not if I were him. Or anyone.
Air travel has gone from 45k a day to 800k a day in 5 months. After the vaccine it’ll be back fairly quick.
That will explain why many airlines are suggesting they'll be smaller long-term compared with 2019. I assume you know something they don't?
If he knows of a quick solution to a massive economic Depression, I do wish he will share.
Because Qantas has a dedicated cargo fleet. If they felt the 789s could supplement this fleet, then they would be flying.
Yes. And this is in addition to the lift QF get from Atlas as well.
The storage maintenance yes.
Any other items - such as AD's, Service Bulletin updates and ultimately return to service will go to in house mechanics or the preferred contractor of the airline.
I passed through VCV last week and an airline and Boeing had contracted one of the MRO's from elsewhere in the country to perform work. Not the storage yard.
With the amount of airplanes stored and most of those being newer ones - most airlines plan on being very involved in non storage work and return to service.
As a contract maintenance rep who airlines call for help with this; I speak with certainty on this.
And QF are more involved than most. It will be in-house for all RTS items & periodics.
Well, you know what they say. Whatever doesn't kill you...
... Must not be an MD-11.