Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
enilria wrote:B5 MDR-WIL SEP 0>2[0] OCT 0>2[0] NOV 0>2[0] DEC 0>2[0] JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0] MAY 0>2[0]
Don't even know what this is
F2 MBA-MDR SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>0.4[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0] MAR 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>0.5[0]
F2 MDR-WIL SEP 0>4[0] OCT 0>4[0] NOV 0>2[0] DEC 0>2[0] JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0] MAY 0>2[0] JUN 0>2[0]
P2 KIS-MDR SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0] NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0] MAR 0>1.0[0] APR 0>1.0[0] MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0]
P2 MDR-WIL SEP 0>4[0] OCT 0>3[0] NOV 0>3[0] DEC 0>3[0] JAN 0>3[0] FEB 0>3[0] MAR 0>3[0] APR 0>3[0] MAY 0>3[0] JUN 0>3[0]
enilria wrote:**9K BNA-MWA SEP 1.7>0[0] OCT 1.7>0[0] NOV 1.7>0[0] DEC 1.7>0[0] JAN 1.7>0[0] FEB 1.7>0[0.2] MAR 1.7>0[1.6] APR 1.7>0[1.8] MAY 1.7>0[1.7] JUN 1.7>0[1.7]
**9K BNA-OWB SEP 2>0[0] OCT 2>0[0] NOV 2>0[0] DEC 2>0[0] JAN 2>0[0] FEB 2>0[0.7] MAR 2>0[1.9] APR 2>0[2] MAY 2>0[1.9] JUN 2>0[2]
**9K BOS-RUT SEP 3>0[0] OCT 3>0[3] NOV 3>0[3] DEC 3>0[3] JAN 3>0[3] FEB 3>0[3] MAR 3>0[3] APR 3>0[3] MAY 3>0[3] JUN 3>0[3]
**9K MBL-ORD OCT 2>0[0] NOV 2>0[0] DEC 2>0[0] JAN 2>0[0] FEB 2>0[0] MAR 2>0[0] APR 2>0[0] MAY 2>0[0] JUN 2>0[0]
**9K MWA-STL SEP 4>0[0] OCT 3>0[5] NOV 3>0[5] DEC 4>0[5] JAN 3>0[5] FEB 4>0[5] MAR 4>0[3] APR 4>0[4] MAY 3>0[3] JUN 4>0[4]
**9K ORD-UIN SEP 3>0[0] OCT 3>0[0] NOV 3>0[0] DEC 3>0[0] JAN 3>0[0] FEB 3>0[2] MAR 3>0[2] APR 3>0[3] MAY 3>0[3] JUN 3>0[3]
**9K OWB-STL SEP 1.0>0[0] OCT 1.0>0[3] NOV 1.0>0[3] DEC 1.0>0[3] JAN 1.0>0[3] FEB 1.0>0[3] MAR 1.0>0[0.9] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0]
**9K STL-UIN SEP 3>0[0] OCT 3>0[0] NOV 3>0[0] DEC 3>0[0] JAN 3>0[0] FEB 3>0[2] MAR 3>0[2] APR 3>0[3] MAY 3>0[3] JUN 3>0[3]
knope2001 wrote:Thanks as always, enilria!enilria wrote:**9K BNA-MWA SEP 1.7>0[0] OCT 1.7>0[0] NOV 1.7>0[0] DEC 1.7>0[0] JAN 1.7>0[0] FEB 1.7>0[0.2] MAR 1.7>0[1.6] APR 1.7>0[1.8] MAY 1.7>0[1.7] JUN 1.7>0[1.7]
**9K BNA-OWB SEP 2>0[0] OCT 2>0[0] NOV 2>0[0] DEC 2>0[0] JAN 2>0[0] FEB 2>0[0.7] MAR 2>0[1.9] APR 2>0[2] MAY 2>0[1.9] JUN 2>0[2]
**9K BOS-RUT SEP 3>0[0] OCT 3>0[3] NOV 3>0[3] DEC 3>0[3] JAN 3>0[3] FEB 3>0[3] MAR 3>0[3] APR 3>0[3] MAY 3>0[3] JUN 3>0[3]
**9K MBL-ORD OCT 2>0[0] NOV 2>0[0] DEC 2>0[0] JAN 2>0[0] FEB 2>0[0] MAR 2>0[0] APR 2>0[0] MAY 2>0[0] JUN 2>0[0]
**9K MWA-STL SEP 4>0[0] OCT 3>0[5] NOV 3>0[5] DEC 4>0[5] JAN 3>0[5] FEB 4>0[5] MAR 4>0[3] APR 4>0[4] MAY 3>0[3] JUN 4>0[4]
**9K ORD-UIN SEP 3>0[0] OCT 3>0[0] NOV 3>0[0] DEC 3>0[0] JAN 3>0[0] FEB 3>0[2] MAR 3>0[2] APR 3>0[3] MAY 3>0[3] JUN 3>0[3]
**9K OWB-STL SEP 1.0>0[0] OCT 1.0>0[3] NOV 1.0>0[3] DEC 1.0>0[3] JAN 1.0>0[3] FEB 1.0>0[3] MAR 1.0>0[0.9] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0]
**9K STL-UIN SEP 3>0[0] OCT 3>0[0] NOV 3>0[0] DEC 3>0[0] JAN 3>0[0] FEB 3>0[2] MAR 3>0[2] APR 3>0[3] MAY 3>0[3] JUN 3>0[3]
I believe these are all Tecnam P2012 Traveller flights and my guess is they fell out of the system based on an issue with the aircraft type code. It's a new/unusual aircraft, of course. If the designator Cape submitted changed or was dropped from the receiver side that mismatch could be trouble. These are all EAS routes and they can't just drop them.
dfw88 wrote:enilria wrote:B5 MDR-WIL SEP 0>2[0] OCT 0>2[0] NOV 0>2[0] DEC 0>2[0] JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0] MAY 0>2[0]
Don't even know what this is
F2 MBA-MDR SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>0.4[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0] MAR 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>0.5[0]
F2 MDR-WIL SEP 0>4[0] OCT 0>4[0] NOV 0>2[0] DEC 0>2[0] JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0] MAY 0>2[0] JUN 0>2[0]
P2 KIS-MDR SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0] NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0] MAR 0>1.0[0] APR 0>1.0[0] MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0]
P2 MDR-WIL SEP 0>4[0] OCT 0>3[0] NOV 0>3[0] DEC 0>3[0] JAN 0>3[0] FEB 0>3[0] MAR 0>3[0] APR 0>3[0] MAY 0>3[0] JUN 0>3[0]
You've had a few weird things pop up in here the past few weeks (like that HZ flight in Eastern Russia) but for whatever reason the code seems to be picking up this MDR code, which is for Maasai Mara, Kenya.
Just for fun, to save anyone else from having to look them up the airlines are B5: East African Safari Air Express, F2: Safarilink, and P2: AirKenya Express.
Anyway, thanks for doing this every week!
knope2001 wrote:Thanks as always, enilria!enilria wrote:**9K BNA-MWA SEP 1.7>0[0] OCT 1.7>0[0] NOV 1.7>0[0] DEC 1.7>0[0] JAN 1.7>0[0] FEB 1.7>0[0.2] MAR 1.7>0[1.6] APR 1.7>0[1.8] MAY 1.7>0[1.7] JUN 1.7>0[1.7]
**9K BNA-OWB SEP 2>0[0] OCT 2>0[0] NOV 2>0[0] DEC 2>0[0] JAN 2>0[0] FEB 2>0[0.7] MAR 2>0[1.9] APR 2>0[2] MAY 2>0[1.9] JUN 2>0[2]
**9K BOS-RUT SEP 3>0[0] OCT 3>0[3] NOV 3>0[3] DEC 3>0[3] JAN 3>0[3] FEB 3>0[3] MAR 3>0[3] APR 3>0[3] MAY 3>0[3] JUN 3>0[3]
**9K MBL-ORD OCT 2>0[0] NOV 2>0[0] DEC 2>0[0] JAN 2>0[0] FEB 2>0[0] MAR 2>0[0] APR 2>0[0] MAY 2>0[0] JUN 2>0[0]
**9K MWA-STL SEP 4>0[0] OCT 3>0[5] NOV 3>0[5] DEC 4>0[5] JAN 3>0[5] FEB 4>0[5] MAR 4>0[3] APR 4>0[4] MAY 3>0[3] JUN 4>0[4]
**9K ORD-UIN SEP 3>0[0] OCT 3>0[0] NOV 3>0[0] DEC 3>0[0] JAN 3>0[0] FEB 3>0[2] MAR 3>0[2] APR 3>0[3] MAY 3>0[3] JUN 3>0[3]
**9K OWB-STL SEP 1.0>0[0] OCT 1.0>0[3] NOV 1.0>0[3] DEC 1.0>0[3] JAN 1.0>0[3] FEB 1.0>0[3] MAR 1.0>0[0.9] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0]
**9K STL-UIN SEP 3>0[0] OCT 3>0[0] NOV 3>0[0] DEC 3>0[0] JAN 3>0[0] FEB 3>0[2] MAR 3>0[2] APR 3>0[3] MAY 3>0[3] JUN 3>0[3]
I believe these are all Tecnam P2012 Traveller flights and my guess is they fell out of the system based on an issue with the aircraft type code. It's a new/unusual aircraft, of course. If the designator Cape submitted changed or was dropped from the receiver side that mismatch could be trouble. These are all EAS routes and they can't just drop them.
sprxUSA wrote:The 9K stuff seems off as they haven't started Manistee yet and are selling it along with the other EAS routes.
Also, seems a lot of routes that were operated last year in Sep show as [0] in a few spots. WN list has many of these inaccuracies....
N766UA wrote:Holy crap, BOS>RUT gets cut?! Did they rebid the EAS contract or something?
N766UA wrote:Holy crap, BOS>RUT gets cut?! Did they rebid the EAS contract or something?
enilria wrote:I'm assuming the World Area Code for those flights is wrong OR, more likely, filed as blank which prevents it from being filtered.
usxguy wrote:N766UA wrote:Holy crap, BOS>RUT gets cut?! Did they rebid the EAS contract or something?
these routes are still showing in Sabre. So it could have maybe been a glitch on their end.
115SEPMWABNA«
15SEP TUE MWA/CDT BNA/CDT‡0
19K 1133 Y4 M4 W4 X4 H4 MWABNA 223P 344P T12 0 XJS AB /E
Q4 K4 S4 B4 V2 T4 L4 G0 Z4
29K 1120 Y4 M4 W4 X4 H4 MWABNA 747A 859A T12 0 XJS AB /E
Q4 K4 S2 B4 V0 T4 L4 G0 Z4
15OCT THU BOS/EDT RUT/EDT‡0
19K 63 Y4 M4 W4 X4 H4 Q4 K2 BOSRUT 232P 337P T12 0 AB /E
S0 B0 V0 T0 L0 G0 Z0
29K 55 Y4 M4 W4 X4 H2 Q2 K0 BOSRUT 1005A 1110A T12 0 AB /E
S0 B0 V0 T0 L0 G0 Z0
39K 71 Y4 M4 W4 X4 H4 Q4 K2 BOSRUT 535P 645P T12 0 AB /E
S1 B0 V0 T0 L0 G0 Z0
steex wrote:enilria wrote:I'm assuming the World Area Code for those flights is wrong OR, more likely, filed as blank which prevents it from being filtered.
Thanks, as always, for these weekly posts. A highlight of the week, still learning to have my brain benchmark these as a sign of Tuesday rather than Sunday!
I suspect part of the issue on RZH is that it is currently the IATA code for Preobrazheniye in the Russian Far East, but it was previously the code for Quartz Hill Airport in Lancaster, CA prior to its closure. Wouldn't be surprised if something was missed with a code reassignment between two fairly obscure airports.
klm617 wrote:FI BOS-KEF SEP 1.0>0.8[1.0]
FI DEN-KEF SEP 0.8>0.6[0.8]
FI EWR-KEF SEP 0.8>0.5[0.8]
FI IAD-KEF SEP 1.0>0.6[1.0]
FI JFK-KEF SEP 1.0>0.6[1.0]
FI KEF-MSP SEP 0.8>0.5[0.8]
FI KEF-ORD SEP 0.8>0.5[0.8]
FI KEF-SEA SEP 1.1>0.8[1.1]
My question is why would airlines offer inventory to airports that are not yet allowed to receive international flights like DEN and MSP and who would book a seat on a flight to an airport that is not authorized.
MastaHanky wrote:I had no idea UA wasn’t already serving DEN-SUX. That seems right in their wheelhouse.
CMHtraveler wrote:Thanks as always Enilria. As far as the WN schedule, obviously quite a few flights are suspended for September. Of those, a number of them show a return in October. Does this mean WN intends at this point for them to return in October as opposed to decisions to be made later and/or return to regular schedule for the flights that only show September cuts?
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:Yeah its an interesting time and all of the traditional demand / capacity planning rules have been tossed out the window.
With where we are at now in this thing, almost any future bookings that haven't been cancelled were booked prior to the onset of the pandemic (March 2020).
The advanced booking window we are now in is almost all within 3 weeks of departure, which is even less than the they typical 5-6 week period that was pre-pandemic.
The airlines can get away with all of the close-in adjustments because they have such an enormous amount of slack with aircraft and crews.
However, right now most close-in schedule adjustments are reductions off of the previously published schedules.
Enilria - like you said, there is a lot of question marks about what happens after 10/1. Are we going to see a lot of temporary route suspensions? I'd venture to guess than any airline that is serving a non-EAS airport with 1-2x daily right now is at a big risk of getting suspended in October.
Dominion301 wrote:
It's been a long time since I used Sabre. What does "XJS AB /E" stand for? Good to know the Technam's IATA code is T12.
MO11 wrote:Dominion301 wrote:
It's been a long time since I used Sabre. What does "XJS AB /E" stand for? Good to know the Technam's IATA code is T12.
XJS is Except Saturday Sunday
AB is the level of connectivity the carrier has with SABRE (in this case Answerback)
/E this carrier accepts electronic ticketing.
klm617 wrote:My question is why would airlines offer inventory to airports that are not yet allowed to receive international flights like DEN and MSP and who would book a seat on a flight to an airport that is not authorized.
CMHtraveler wrote:Thanks as always Enilria. As far as the WN schedule, obviously quite a few flights are suspended for September. Of those, a number of them show a return in October. Does this mean WN intends at this point for them to return in October as opposed to decisions to be made later and/or return to regular schedule for the flights that only show September cuts?
wnflyguy wrote:CMHtraveler wrote:Thanks as always Enilria. As far as the WN schedule, obviously quite a few flights are suspended for September. Of those, a number of them show a return in October. Does this mean WN intends at this point for them to return in October as opposed to decisions to be made later and/or return to regular schedule for the flights that only show September cuts?
Everything I've heard WN is going to rerelease the October thru January 4 with a more scaled down schedule vs the previous almost full schedule.
They also will release January-April 11 schedules.
This all happens Thursday.
Flyguy
BMWE38Guy wrote:klm617 wrote:My question is why would airlines offer inventory to airports that are not yet allowed to receive international flights like DEN and MSP and who would book a seat on a flight to an airport that is not authorized.
I'm confused what you mean by "not yet allowed to receive international flights." DEN has international flights on Aeromexico, Volaris and Southwest. Volaris came back in July, and they're up to 3 destinations from DEN.
BMWE38Guy wrote:klm617 wrote:My question is why would airlines offer inventory to airports that are not yet allowed to receive international flights like DEN and MSP and who would book a seat on a flight to an airport that is not authorized.
I'm confused what you mean by "not yet allowed to receive international flights." DEN has international flights on Aeromexico, Volaris and Southwest. Volaris came back in July, and they're up to 3 destinations from DEN.
klm617 wrote:BMWE38Guy wrote:klm617 wrote:My question is why would airlines offer inventory to airports that are not yet allowed to receive international flights like DEN and MSP and who would book a seat on a flight to an airport that is not authorized.
I'm confused what you mean by "not yet allowed to receive international flights." DEN has international flights on Aeromexico, Volaris and Southwest. Volaris came back in July, and they're up to 3 destinations from DEN.
Here is the list of approved airports serving travelers returning from the Schengen Area countries, Iran, or mainland China (excluding Hong Kong and Macau).
List of Approved Airports:
Atlanta: Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL)
Dallas-Fort Worth: Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW)
Detroit: Detroit Metropolitan Airport (DTW)
Newark, New Jersey: Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR)
Honolulu: Daniel K. Inouye International Airport (HNL)
New York City: John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK)
Los Angeles: Los Angeles International Airport (LAX)
Chicago: Chicago O’Hare International Airport (ORD)
Seattle: Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA)
San Francisco: San Francisco International Airport (SFO)
Washington, D.C.: Washington-Dulles International Airport (IAD)
Dominion301 wrote:MO11 wrote:Dominion301 wrote:
It's been a long time since I used Sabre. What does "XJS AB /E" stand for? Good to know the Technam's IATA code is T12.
XJS is Except Saturday Sunday
AB is the level of connectivity the carrier has with SABRE (in this case Answerback)
/E this carrier accepts electronic ticketing.
Thanks for the refresher. Last system I used was Navitaire. I think they used the easier-to-understand numbered days of the week (i.e., X67).
wnflyguy wrote:CMHtraveler wrote:Thanks as always Enilria. As far as the WN schedule, obviously quite a few flights are suspended for September. Of those, a number of them show a return in October. Does this mean WN intends at this point for them to return in October as opposed to decisions to be made later and/or return to regular schedule for the flights that only show September cuts?
Everything I've heard WN is going to rerelease the October thru January 4 with a more scaled down schedule vs the previous almost full schedule.
They also will release January-April 11 schedules.
This all happens Thursday.
Flyguy
knope2001 wrote:Thanks as always, enilria!enilria wrote:**9K BNA-MWA SEP 1.7>0[0] OCT 1.7>0[0] NOV 1.7>0[0] DEC 1.7>0[0] JAN 1.7>0[0] FEB 1.7>0[0.2] MAR 1.7>0[1.6] APR 1.7>0[1.8] MAY 1.7>0[1.7] JUN 1.7>0[1.7]
**9K BNA-OWB SEP 2>0[0] OCT 2>0[0] NOV 2>0[0] DEC 2>0[0] JAN 2>0[0] FEB 2>0[0.7] MAR 2>0[1.9] APR 2>0[2] MAY 2>0[1.9] JUN 2>0[2]
**9K BOS-RUT SEP 3>0[0] OCT 3>0[3] NOV 3>0[3] DEC 3>0[3] JAN 3>0[3] FEB 3>0[3] MAR 3>0[3] APR 3>0[3] MAY 3>0[3] JUN 3>0[3]
**9K MBL-ORD OCT 2>0[0] NOV 2>0[0] DEC 2>0[0] JAN 2>0[0] FEB 2>0[0] MAR 2>0[0] APR 2>0[0] MAY 2>0[0] JUN 2>0[0]
**9K MWA-STL SEP 4>0[0] OCT 3>0[5] NOV 3>0[5] DEC 4>0[5] JAN 3>0[5] FEB 4>0[5] MAR 4>0[3] APR 4>0[4] MAY 3>0[3] JUN 4>0[4]
**9K ORD-UIN SEP 3>0[0] OCT 3>0[0] NOV 3>0[0] DEC 3>0[0] JAN 3>0[0] FEB 3>0[2] MAR 3>0[2] APR 3>0[3] MAY 3>0[3] JUN 3>0[3]
**9K OWB-STL SEP 1.0>0[0] OCT 1.0>0[3] NOV 1.0>0[3] DEC 1.0>0[3] JAN 1.0>0[3] FEB 1.0>0[3] MAR 1.0>0[0.9] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0]
**9K STL-UIN SEP 3>0[0] OCT 3>0[0] NOV 3>0[0] DEC 3>0[0] JAN 3>0[0] FEB 3>0[2] MAR 3>0[2] APR 3>0[3] MAY 3>0[3] JUN 3>0[3]
I believe these are all Tecnam P2012 Traveller flights and my guess is they fell out of the system based on an issue with the aircraft type code. It's a new/unusual aircraft, of course. If the designator Cape submitted changed or was dropped from the receiver side that mismatch could be trouble. These are all EAS routes and they can't just drop them.
Chuska wrote:Yes, UA's addition of ALS does mean SkyWest got the EAS contract. Effective Oct. 1 ALS will get jet service for the first time ever. Boutique got the boot.
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:Enilria - like you said, there is a lot of question marks about what happens after 10/1. Are we going to see a lot of temporary route suspensions? I'd venture to guess than any airline that is serving a non-EAS airport with 1-2x daily right now is at a big risk of getting suspended in October.
Midwestindy wrote:PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:Yeah its an interesting time and all of the traditional demand / capacity planning rules have been tossed out the window.
With where we are at now in this thing, almost any future bookings that haven't been cancelled were booked prior to the onset of the pandemic (March 2020).
The advanced booking window we are now in is almost all within 3 weeks of departure, which is even less than the they typical 5-6 week period that was pre-pandemic.
The airlines can get away with all of the close-in adjustments because they have such an enormous amount of slack with aircraft and crews.
However, right now most close-in schedule adjustments are reductions off of the previously published schedules.
Enilria - like you said, there is a lot of question marks about what happens after 10/1. Are we going to see a lot of temporary route suspensions? I'd venture to guess than any airline that is serving a non-EAS airport with 1-2x daily right now is at a big risk of getting suspended in October.
It's going to depend on what bookings look like, as you know, but the breakeven LF by route is going to shoot up after October 1st (still lower than pre-COVID levels) without an extension of the CARES act.
So hypothetically if demand were to stay flat from today though Oct, routes/frequencies that are logical to operate now will likely become uneconomical by Oct 1st. Assuming no giant swing in bookings one way another, I think we'll likely just see continued shrinkage from secondary & tertiary hubs (AA-NYC/LAX, UA-LAX, DL-BOS, e.t.c) and the large connecting complexes remaining at September levels.
enilria wrote:PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:Enilria - like you said, there is a lot of question marks about what happens after 10/1. Are we going to see a lot of temporary route suspensions? I'd venture to guess than any airline that is serving a non-EAS airport with 1-2x daily right now is at a big risk of getting suspended in October.
Route suspensions hell yes. The question is whether whole stations close. That could go either way I think. DOT was kinda allowing anything goes on station closures near the end, but maybe it only seemed that way because if you were the "primary" airline at the airport you were being denied. We could see a wave of closures. OTOH, if that were to happen I would think we would be seeing news of it now, but on a third hand perhaps the airlines think that would weaken their political chances with CARES2 if they were so bold as to threaten a bunch of station closures.
Certainly UA's move to add a bunch of pt2pt Florida markets like B6 did smells of cash desperation and those planes come from somewhere.
Final point. While California continues to pull away from the rest of the country on new cases, Florida is now declining significantly. Texas too, but to a lesser extent. I think that will lead to increased Winter traffic to the warm Southern markets. IMHO, we are going to see another wave of COVID cases hit the cold States in 45-60 days starting in places like MN and then moving down into PA/OH. I say those States because they are urban (people are close together and more easily transmit) and were not hit very hard last time around and they have less immunity, but it could certainly come back to MA/CT/MI/NY/etc as well. If the latter happens we will have another big air travel meltdown and I think it gets quite bad. My hope and belief is that it will not be big in the repeat States, but could be bad in those "virgin" States.
enilria wrote:Midwestindy wrote:PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:Yeah its an interesting time and all of the traditional demand / capacity planning rules have been tossed out the window.
With where we are at now in this thing, almost any future bookings that haven't been cancelled were booked prior to the onset of the pandemic (March 2020).
The advanced booking window we are now in is almost all within 3 weeks of departure, which is even less than the they typical 5-6 week period that was pre-pandemic.
The airlines can get away with all of the close-in adjustments because they have such an enormous amount of slack with aircraft and crews.
However, right now most close-in schedule adjustments are reductions off of the previously published schedules.
Enilria - like you said, there is a lot of question marks about what happens after 10/1. Are we going to see a lot of temporary route suspensions? I'd venture to guess than any airline that is serving a non-EAS airport with 1-2x daily right now is at a big risk of getting suspended in October.
It's going to depend on what bookings look like, as you know, but the breakeven LF by route is going to shoot up after October 1st (still lower than pre-COVID levels) without an extension of the CARES act.
So hypothetically if demand were to stay flat from today though Oct, routes/frequencies that are logical to operate now will likely become uneconomical by Oct 1st. Assuming no giant swing in bookings one way another, I think we'll likely just see continued shrinkage from secondary & tertiary hubs (AA-NYC/LAX, UA-LAX, DL-BOS, e.t.c) and the large connecting complexes remaining at September levels.
Part of me says that CARES just keeps airlines from making the long term decisions they need to make. When this looked temporary CARES made sense. I think that is becoming the problem with CARES2.
KFTG wrote:Southwest was actually flying GEGSEA?
enilria wrote:PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:Enilria - like you said, there is a lot of question marks about what happens after 10/1. Are we going to see a lot of temporary route suspensions? I'd venture to guess than any airline that is serving a non-EAS airport with 1-2x daily right now is at a big risk of getting suspended in October.
Route suspensions hell yes. The question is whether whole stations close. That could go either way I think. DOT was kinda allowing anything goes on station closures near the end, but maybe it only seemed that way because if you were the "primary" airline at the airport you were being denied. We could see a wave of closures. OTOH, if that were to happen I would think we would be seeing news of it now, but on a third hand perhaps the airlines think that would weaken their political chances with CARES2 if they were so bold as to threaten a bunch of station closures.
Certainly UA's move to add a bunch of pt2pt Florida markets like B6 did smells of cash desperation and those planes come from somewhere.
Final point. While California continues to pull away from the rest of the country on new cases, Florida is now declining significantly. Texas too, but to a lesser extent. I think that will lead to increased Winter traffic to the warm Southern markets. IMHO, we are going to see another wave of COVID cases hit the cold States in 45-60 days starting in places like MN and then moving down into PA/OH. I say those States because they are urban (people are close together and more easily transmit) and were not hit very hard last time around and they have less immunity, but it could certainly come back to MA/CT/MI/NY/etc as well. If the latter happens we will have another big air travel meltdown and I think it gets quite bad. My hope and belief is that it will not be big in the repeat States, but could be bad in those "virgin" States.
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:enilria wrote:PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:Enilria - like you said, there is a lot of question marks about what happens after 10/1. Are we going to see a lot of temporary route suspensions? I'd venture to guess than any airline that is serving a non-EAS airport with 1-2x daily right now is at a big risk of getting suspended in October.
Route suspensions hell yes. The question is whether whole stations close. That could go either way I think. DOT was kinda allowing anything goes on station closures near the end, but maybe it only seemed that way because if you were the "primary" airline at the airport you were being denied. We could see a wave of closures. OTOH, if that were to happen I would think we would be seeing news of it now, but on a third hand perhaps the airlines think that would weaken their political chances with CARES2 if they were so bold as to threaten a bunch of station closures.
Certainly UA's move to add a bunch of pt2pt Florida markets like B6 did smells of cash desperation and those planes come from somewhere.
Final point. While California continues to pull away from the rest of the country on new cases, Florida is now declining significantly. Texas too, but to a lesser extent. I think that will lead to increased Winter traffic to the warm Southern markets. IMHO, we are going to see another wave of COVID cases hit the cold States in 45-60 days starting in places like MN and then moving down into PA/OH. I say those States because they are urban (people are close together and more easily transmit) and were not hit very hard last time around and they have less immunity, but it could certainly come back to MA/CT/MI/NY/etc as well. If the latter happens we will have another big air travel meltdown and I think it gets quite bad. My hope and belief is that it will not be big in the repeat States, but could be bad in those "virgin" States.
....and here it comes:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/13/america ... nears.html
AA could cancel service to up to 30 destinations as CARES funding / service funding ends next month.
Changes could start showing up in the schedule next week.
Offficially lobbying in the media has begun......
enilria wrote:PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:enilria wrote:Route suspensions hell yes. The question is whether whole stations close. That could go either way I think. DOT was kinda allowing anything goes on station closures near the end, but maybe it only seemed that way because if you were the "primary" airline at the airport you were being denied. We could see a wave of closures. OTOH, if that were to happen I would think we would be seeing news of it now, but on a third hand perhaps the airlines think that would weaken their political chances with CARES2 if they were so bold as to threaten a bunch of station closures.
Certainly UA's move to add a bunch of pt2pt Florida markets like B6 did smells of cash desperation and those planes come from somewhere.
Final point. While California continues to pull away from the rest of the country on new cases, Florida is now declining significantly. Texas too, but to a lesser extent. I think that will lead to increased Winter traffic to the warm Southern markets. IMHO, we are going to see another wave of COVID cases hit the cold States in 45-60 days starting in places like MN and then moving down into PA/OH. I say those States because they are urban (people are close together and more easily transmit) and were not hit very hard last time around and they have less immunity, but it could certainly come back to MA/CT/MI/NY/etc as well. If the latter happens we will have another big air travel meltdown and I think it gets quite bad. My hope and belief is that it will not be big in the repeat States, but could be bad in those "virgin" States.
....and here it comes:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/13/america ... nears.html
AA could cancel service to up to 30 destinations as CARES funding / service funding ends next month.
Changes could start showing up in the schedule next week.
Offficially lobbying in the media has begun......
Looks like I guessed that one pretty well. Should have stopped at the other hand! I wonder if UA will also do the same. I am hearing that CARES2 is looking unlikely.
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:I am sure there are several stations that UA, DL, and even AS & B6 would look at terminating pretty quickly where demand isn't there is this environment.
klm617 wrote:I'm actually excited to see the reshuffling of the deck. It's like civil aviation being born again. I find it interesting that all the routes that were added in the pay to play scheme have all been pretty much dropped which to me says that after the incentive money was gone so too shall follow the service..
klm617 wrote:enilria wrote:PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:....and here it comes:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/13/america ... nears.html
AA could cancel service to up to 30 destinations as CARES funding / service funding ends next month.
Changes could start showing up in the schedule next week.
Offficially lobbying in the media has begun......
Looks like I guessed that one pretty well. Should have stopped at the other hand! I wonder if UA will also do the same. I am hearing that CARES2 is looking unlikely.
I'm actually excited to see the reshuffling of the deck. It's like civil aviation being born again. I find it interesting that all the routes that were added in the pay to play scheme have all been pretty much dropped which to me says that after the incentive money was gone so too shall follow the service..