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LAXdude1023
Posts: 6194
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Fri Aug 14, 2020 6:57 pm

If they were, id imagine small cities that are within two hours drive of a hub airport might be on the list. ACT, TYR, GGG, and SPS come to mind.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
PA12
Posts: 128
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 3:57 pm

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Fri Aug 14, 2020 7:03 pm

HRL has always had WN, and TI at MFE , competing with each other since the 70’s when WN started service to the valley.
MFE also had CO mainline , 737, 738, 739’s , and 757’s, not Rj’s.
Still had some UA mainline with a mix of Rj’s pre- Covid. Same with AA., a mix. AA is now Rj’s but because of the Covid. Also served by G4 ( pre Airbus was also 757’s) and Aeromar to MEX. MFE’s metro area ( close to 800k) has more population and is more business oriented tan HRL/BRO
That’s probably why everything is divided in the valley, I would guess.
 
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klm617
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Fri Aug 14, 2020 7:16 pm

texl1649 wrote:
I dunno about 'marginal' destinations but I think it's inevitable flights to SEA, LGA, ORD SFO, and PDX will be cut by all of the majors shortly. Not for the hub/business travel (where appropriate) long term but the tourist traffic has/will plummet.


And Boston.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Fri Aug 14, 2020 7:21 pm

Here's the deal, if an airport is now getting all of its service by a major-branded regional that uses the current generation of 50-seat jets, they will be at risk of losing service going forward. The E145's and CRJ2's are getting old; their manufacturers have ended production of those 50 seaters; there are no new 50-seat designs in the pipeline to replace them. It is also very unlikely that the Big 3 major airlines will allow branded regional operations using turboprops in the future. Therefore, expect many cities to be dumped into the EAS pile, or end up as twice-weekly destinations for Allegiant.
 
AZORMP
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Fri Aug 14, 2020 7:31 pm

alasizon wrote:
AZORMP wrote:
jplatts wrote:

UA adding LAN-IAD nonstop service is a possibility if AA drops LAN-DCA nonstop service.


Friend of a friend who works for DGS in LAN says UA removed almost all their equipment when the station closed. Computers, aircraft ballast, almost everything. They don’t think United will be returning.


As is par for the course when you close a station - you don't leave all the equipment behind when there is nobody there to use it. That being said, as I recall LAN-DCA is an Air21 slot so highly unlikely AA would pull the route if it is profitable.


AZO is a closed station and hasn’t had any of their UA-owned equipment pulled. You can still see it under the terminal overhang when you’re taxiing into the gate. Their computers, ballast, and signage are all still in place too and were actually updated with their new Clorox partnership stuff.
Kalamazoo’s Radio Man

The RJ2 sucks.
 
AZORMP
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Fri Aug 14, 2020 7:32 pm

alasizon wrote:
AZORMP wrote:
jplatts wrote:

UA adding LAN-IAD nonstop service is a possibility if AA drops LAN-DCA nonstop service.


Friend of a friend who works for DGS in LAN says UA removed almost all their equipment when the station closed. Computers, aircraft ballast, almost everything. They don’t think United will be returning.


As is par for the course when you close a station - you don't leave all the equipment behind when there is nobody there to use it. That being said, as I recall LAN-DCA is an Air21 slot so highly unlikely AA would pull the route if it is profitable.


AZO is a closed station and hasn’t had any of their UA-owned equipment pulled. You can still see it under the terminal overhang when you’re taxiing into the gate. Their computers, ballast, and signage was just updated a few weeks ago.
Kalamazoo’s Radio Man

The RJ2 sucks.
 
drdisque
Topic Author
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:09 pm

alasizon wrote:
AZORMP wrote:
jplatts wrote:

UA adding LAN-IAD nonstop service is a possibility if AA drops LAN-DCA nonstop service.


Friend of a friend who works for DGS in LAN says UA removed almost all their equipment when the station closed. Computers, aircraft ballast, almost everything. They don’t think United will be returning.


As is par for the course when you close a station - you don't leave all the equipment behind when there is nobody there to use it. That being said, as I recall LAN-DCA is an Air21 slot so highly unlikely AA would pull the route if it is profitable.


If UA was definitely not coming back to LAN I don't think they would still have it in the schedule coming back in just 45 days.

Corporate security likely made them remove the equipment. In the case that UA did not return, they would have sent someone out to retrieve all of that stuff and all of that stuff would be subject to theft or damage with nobody attending it.
 
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NWAESC
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:12 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Just and FYI - THERE HAS BEEN NO OFFICIAL RELEASE OF A LIST OF ROUTES/MARKETS.

Everything upthread is all speculation. There is no official list release. A lot of good speculation, but at this point don't assume anything either way.



Speculation is this site's raison d'etre.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
metaldirtnskin
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Fri Aug 14, 2020 11:15 pm

alasizon wrote:
cschleic wrote:
Didn't AS (or operated by Skywest) already announce adding routes from some of these cities that look a lot like replacing AA? It would make a lot of sense to let AS run flights even to the AA hubs...except for having to connect to AA metal....


Out of LAX yes, but AA just doubled down on MFR, EUG, and RDM from PHX. Essentially, the flight was moved from LAX. These Oregon routes are quite well yielding so likely not stations that would be cut.

This overall is likely much ado about nothing and is likely an employee that hopes the article will get the government to extend portion of CARES. All the legacy carriers make their bread and butter on the small town markets as they can get great fare levels, those that get cut are typically east of the Mississippi and have multiple other options around them (such as the ELM, ITH, BGM circus). My guess is you'll see less than 10 markets cut overall.


AA did cut EUG-LAX (and MFR as well, I think) at the same time AS announced it - and on E175 metal, the first time they've operated it into EUG. And this was all announced about two weeks ago, and was clearly more to do with the tie-up between AA and AS than anything else. No real change in service at EUG (except that UA shortly cut LAX as well, which is hardly a surprise as that route would then have been served by four airlines). I'd be more worried about other airports with less service than EUG/MFR/RDM and the like - all of those were on pace for at least a million pax a year pre-COVID, which is enough to attract more than one or two optimistic carriers.

I think, as implied above, they are inflating the actual potential service cuts for purposes of saber-rattling and getting more relief dollars.

NWAESC wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Just and FYI - THERE HAS BEEN NO OFFICIAL RELEASE OF A LIST OF ROUTES/MARKETS.

Everything upthread is all speculation. There is no official list release. A lot of good speculation, but at this point don't assume anything either way.


Speculation is this site's raison d'etre.


Quoted for truth.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Fri Aug 14, 2020 11:29 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
If they were, id imagine small cities that are within two hours drive of a hub airport might be on the list. ACT, TYR, GGG, and SPS come to mind.


Proximity to a hub has been tough for small airports for a while. (See DL pulling out of St Cloud, MN; service cuts at FNT and TOL...) Frequency, non-stop destination counts, and price competition by multiple carriers are important lures at hubs. What saves small airports is a base of businesses, or numbers of higher income individuals with a high propensity to travel, willing to pay for local service. I don't know if that well describes ACT, TYR, GGG, and SPS (among others on the OP's spec list).
 
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klm617
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Fri Aug 14, 2020 11:46 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Just and FYI - THERE HAS BEEN NO OFFICIAL RELEASE OF A LIST OF ROUTES/MARKETS.

Everything upthread is all speculation. There is no official list release. A lot of good speculation, but at this point don't assume anything either way.


That would make sense because this is an open aviation forum not an official corporate newsfeed for the airlines.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
rj1385
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:13 am

SWF prior to covid was up to 4 daily to PHL. With AA pulling more and more from JFK, I would think SWF offers a bit of a catchment at a cheaper cost and hope AA doesn't pull it.
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:48 am

BoilerAviation wrote:
KFTG wrote:
BoilerAviation wrote:
Hopefully PHF is not one of these airports, would signal some warning bells

Hampton Roads does not need two “international airports”.


Doesn't hurt to have options!


Much of the Hampton roads/Williamsburg traffic is deviated to ORF or RIC due to lower fares and a lesser possibility of having to connect. This is what, eventually, resulted in AirTran/Southwest and Delta (supposedly temporary, but it’s not on the schedule for July 2021) ending service to PHF. So, it would not surprise me if AA dropped service there too.
So... when will the Northwest DC-9s be retired?
 
deltairlines
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Sat Aug 15, 2020 2:54 am

rj1385 wrote:
SWF prior to covid was up to 4 daily to PHL. With AA pulling more and more from JFK, I would think SWF offers a bit of a catchment at a cheaper cost and hope AA doesn't pull it.


SWF being dropped wouldn't surprise me in the least. It's on the wrong side of the river for New York City; those in Rockland County can just as easily get to HPN or EWR (and LGA isn't a huge hassle). Putnam County is still easier to get to HPN or really any of the NYC airports. SWF will be lucky to keep JetBlue flying to Florida (which probably can pull it off).
 
evank516
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Sat Aug 15, 2020 4:20 am

Does MHK still run under EAS? I'm pretty sure AA got it to the point where they didn't need it anymore, but can't remember. They're equidistant drivewise from ICT and MCI, about an 1:40 from each. I was in a board meeting today and they suggested the next meeting be in MHK over Kansas City, MO and mentioned that AA flies from ORD and DFW to there, but I had to chime in and mention this article.
 
continental004
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Sat Aug 15, 2020 4:51 am

I don’t see SBP being dropped.
 
aaway
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Sat Aug 15, 2020 5:23 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
If they were, id imagine small cities that are within two hours drive of a hub airport might be on the list. ACT, TYR, GGG, and SPS come to mind.


My thinking is that SPS is most likely survivor of this grouping you've listed. GGG likely the weakest considering proximity to SHV and TYR.
"The greatest mistake you can make in life is to continually be afraid you will make one." - Elbert Hubbard
 
Varsity1
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Sat Aug 15, 2020 6:12 am

evank516 wrote:
Does MHK still run under EAS? I'm pretty sure AA got it to the point where they didn't need it anymore, but can't remember. They're equidistant drivewise from ICT and MCI, about an 1:40 from each. I was in a board meeting today and they suggested the next meeting be in MHK over Kansas City, MO and mentioned that AA flies from ORD and DFW to there, but I had to chime in and mention this article.


It's self sustaining with Fort Riley traffic alone.

It's been upgraded to the E175 as well.
 
freakyrat
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Sat Aug 15, 2020 11:25 am

Midwestindy wrote:
alasizon wrote:
Out of LAX yes, but AA just doubled down on MFR, EUG, and RDM from PHX. Essentially, the flight was moved from LAX. These Oregon routes are quite well yielding so likely not stations that would be cut.

This overall is likely much ado about nothing and is likely an employee that hopes the article will get the government to extend portion of CARES. All the legacy carriers make their bread and butter on the small town markets as they can get great fare levels, those that get cut are typically east of the Mississippi and have multiple other options around them (such as the ELM, ITH, BGM circus). My guess is you'll see less than 10 markets cut overall.


The dynamics of small city airports are not applicable in this environment, yields are down everywhere.

The determining factor of what is driving route cuts right now is passenger levels, lots of these airports are averaging pax/flight at unsustainably low levels



SBN is down but is starting to come back up. The 2 SBN-DFW flights have local businesses using them and buying a lot of last minute First Class Seating plus AA has contracts with Warsaw business Zimmer Biomet a local manufacturer of artificial knees and hips who has a large presense in AUS and whoose passengers use both FWA and SBN. AA is the only airline offering FC seating both to CLT and DFW. Notre Dame students who live in Texas and the East Coast will also utilize the seats once school is in session. the only flight that AA cancelled during this whole crisis was the Morning CLT flight and I could see them doing it again after Oct if they had to but I feel DFW is staying at all costs.
 
lat41
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:38 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Maybe it's time for the State and Federal govt to raise the speed limits on Interstates to 80. : } Be a lot cheaper than subsidizing air service on a 50 seater. Of course, the FAA could modify the rules for 10 to 19 seaters to bring that segment of the industry back but ........

Maybe it's time to fix them.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Sat Aug 15, 2020 2:01 pm

Res subsidies: the feds should be subsidizing people not companies. There is a difference. Our Timbuktu's need connecting. Subsidizing and setting standards for reliable and useful ground transportation to nearby medical and aviation centers is needed, and is a lot cheaper than subsidizing a plane. Licensing, training, inspecting vehicles, and insurance are the obvious, most useful, and cheapest subsidies. Were those provided by the subsidies those willing to drive and provide the vehicle could charge a reasonable rate and make a profit.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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klm617
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Sat Aug 15, 2020 3:26 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Res subsidies: the feds should be subsidizing people not companies. There is a difference. Our Timbuktu's need connecting. Subsidizing and setting standards for reliable and useful ground transportation to nearby medical and aviation centers is needed, and is a lot cheaper than subsidizing a plane. Licensing, training, inspecting vehicles, and insurance are the obvious, most useful, and cheapest subsidies. Were those provided by the subsidies those willing to drive and provide the vehicle could charge a reasonable rate and make a profit.


Agreed these airlines are all way to big when they were able to dictate the market verse the customer. Let them again shot themselves when they shrink to a level we competition can again flourish and new upstarts have a fighting chance against the predatory airlines that will squash them in a minute. These truly are exciting times in commercial aviation watching it being born again as the playing field get's leveled as it should be. We.ve seen this happen in Flint were Delta bowed out and AA stepped in and added flights from Flint to Charlotte to pick up the slack.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Sat Aug 15, 2020 4:05 pm

I think it will be alot more complex then just these cities are near larger ones. I imagine AA will study yields, costs of the airport, percentage business/leisure traffic and what plane types they want to retire. Business travel is dead for a while here , I think those are most likely to get the chopping block cuts.

Sadly I don't think AA is alone I expect UA and DL to review similar ideas to shrink here.
 
Ishrion
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Sat Aug 15, 2020 4:23 pm

Cheyenne, Wyoming may be one of the cities: https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-ai ... nnections/

The new Cheyenne flight is subsidized under the federal government’s essential air service (EAS) program. SkyWest previously served the city from Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) for American Airlines but appears to be switching the service to United.
 
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NWAESC
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Sat Aug 15, 2020 4:33 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Sadly I don't think AA is alone I expect UA and DL to review similar ideas to shrink here.


Through DOT exemptions, DL cut 20-25(ish) domestic stations already. A handful will be back, but my guess is most won't.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
MrPeanut
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Sat Aug 15, 2020 4:35 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Sadly I don't think AA is alone I expect UA and DL to review similar ideas to shrink here.


Perhaps...... or the other airlines will fill in the void. UA just announced service to 2 new small markets today. I find this interesting on two fronts:
1.) if AA’s intent was to send a message to the government about extending funding, UA has thrown in a wrench into things
2.) is this announcement an outlier or will UA take advantage of this opportunity to expand into smaller markets


https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-ai ... nnections/
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Sun Aug 16, 2020 1:00 am

alo2yyz wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
FSDan wrote:
A few cities off the top of my head that only have service to one AA hub, and at low frequency: EUG, MFR, RDM, BIL, BPT, GGG, SWO, BIS, ALO, DBQ, MQT, FLO, PGV, HTS, IPT, ART, SWF, ISP, HVN, ORH. I know there are more like those as well. Many aren't too far a drive to a bigger airport...


With only a couple of exceptions, these are all 145/135 runs?
Waterloo has been tough since the TWA days, the industry there just dried up, outforced to Mexico and China. Plus SUX is just 50 miles down the road.
HTS might be a tough one to leave, AA to CLT is all that’s left, beyond a couple of G4’s. Same thing, industry went to China, and enviro tens killed coal. Delta pulled out a few years ago. I think AA is fishing for local service grant money, you’ll note that MHK and some others are not on this list.


ALO to SUX is 220 miles by road.

ALO to CID, on the other hand, is 70 miles. Fine in July. A whole different story the 3rd week of January.

I meant CID, my apologies
 
airlineworker
Posts: 194
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:20 am

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Sun Aug 16, 2020 2:24 am

drdisque wrote:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/13/american-airlines-could-cut-some-flights-required-under-federal-aid-terms-as-expiration-nears.html

Source is an anonymous tip from inside AA management.

It's unclear if they're talking 20+ cities completely removed from AA's route map or just routes cut.

However, if it is cities here are some of my guesses (cities that are heavily reliant on business travel where AA is weak relative to other carriers or where the community's continued ability to sustain unsubsidized air service is questionable if AA is the only carrier):

LAN
SBN
LSE
BTR
MLU
CRP
IPT (only carrier, route is slated to move from PHL to CLT next week)
HVN (PHL service already slated to end in Sept)
CWA
GUC (seasonal station)
SBP
OAK
DRO
GNV
SUX (handing over station to UA)
BIL
SWF
ISP
PGV (only carrier)
BIS
DRT (only carrier)
GRB
HTS (only network carrier)


HVN-PHL ending on Sept 8,2020 and starting on Sept 9, 2020, HVN-CLT. The loads on the HVN-PHL flights were similar to BDL and PVD when the E175 was used. Both BDL and PVD have more flights to CLT on larger aircraft, mainline and have much higher load factors and that should be the case with HVN-CLT flights. Before AA, US was at HVN for many years and a good market exists for more service. The runway is planned to grow now that the SCOTUS has refused to hear a court case that objected to runway expansion. It seems the E175 works well off the 5600 foot runway and so did the CRJ-700. I see down the road UA starting HVN-ORD with the CRJ-550.
 
CairnterriAIR
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Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Sun Aug 16, 2020 2:53 pm

airlineworker wrote:
drdisque wrote:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/13/american-airlines-could-cut-some-flights-required-under-federal-aid-terms-as-expiration-nears.html

Source is an anonymous tip from inside AA management.

It's unclear if they're talking 20+ cities completely removed from AA's route map or just routes cut.

However, if it is cities here are some of my guesses (cities that are heavily reliant on business travel where AA is weak relative to other carriers or where the community's continued ability to sustain unsubsidized air service is questionable if AA is the only carrier):

LAN
SBN
LSE
BTR
MLU
CRP
IPT (only carrier, route is slated to move from PHL to CLT next week)
HVN (PHL service already slated to end in Sept)
CWA
GUC (seasonal station)
SBP
OAK
DRO
GNV
SUX (handing over station to UA)
BIL
SWF
ISP
PGV (only carrier)
BIS
DRT (only carrier)
GRB
HTS (only network carrier)


HVN-PHL ending on Sept 8,2020 and starting on Sept 9, 2020, HVN-CLT. The loads on the HVN-PHL flights were similar to BDL and PVD when the E175 was used. Both BDL and PVD have more flights to CLT on larger aircraft, mainline and have much higher load factors and that should be the case with HVN-CLT flights. Before AA, US was at HVN for many years and a good market exists for more service. The runway is planned to grow now that the SCOTUS has refused to hear a court case that objected to runway expansion. It seems the E175 works well off the 5600 foot runway and so did the CRJ-700. I see down the road UA starting HVN-ORD with the CRJ-550.


I doubt UA will serve HVN with a high premium aircraft or even putting any aircraft at all through there. Too close to the Newark hub. If anything they should return to Chicago. AA is fine in a HVN. Plenty of connections through CLT to Florida which has always been a bread and butter market for Southern New England. With the runway expansion going ahead, AA will stay...not to mention they will want to hold that market when Allegiant and Breeze both start service eventually.
 
airlineworker
Posts: 194
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:20 am

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Sun Aug 16, 2020 5:14 pm

CairnterriAIR wrote:
airlineworker wrote:
drdisque wrote:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/13/american-airlines-could-cut-some-flights-required-under-federal-aid-terms-as-expiration-nears.html

Source is an anonymous tip from inside AA management.

It's unclear if they're talking 20+ cities completely removed from AA's route map or just routes cut.

However, if it is cities here are some of my guesses (cities that are heavily reliant on business travel where AA is weak relative to other carriers or where the community's continued ability to sustain unsubsidized air service is questionable if AA is the only carrier):

LAN
SBN
LSE
BTR
MLU
CRP
IPT (only carrier, route is slated to move from PHL to CLT next week)
HVN (PHL service already slated to end in Sept)
CWA
GUC (seasonal station)
SBP
OAK
DRO
GNV
SUX (handing over station to UA)
BIL
SWF
ISP
PGV (only carrier)
BIS
DRT (only carrier)
GRB
HTS (only network carrier)


HVN-PHL ending on Sept 8,2020 and starting on Sept 9, 2020, HVN-CLT. The loads on the HVN-PHL flights were similar to BDL and PVD when the E175 was used. Both BDL and PVD have more flights to CLT on larger aircraft, mainline and have much higher load factors and that should be the case with HVN-CLT flights. Before AA, US was at HVN for many years and a good market exists for more service. The runway is planned to grow now that the SCOTUS has refused to hear a court case that objected to runway expansion. It seems the E175 works well off the 5600 foot runway and so did the CRJ-700. I see down the road UA starting HVN-ORD with the CRJ-550.


I doubt UA will serve HVN with a high premium aircraft or even putting any aircraft at all through there. Too close to the Newark hub. If anything they should return to Chicago. AA is fine in a HVN. Plenty of connections through CLT to Florida which has always been a bread and butter market for Southern New England. With the runway expansion going ahead, AA will stay...not to mention they will want to hold that market when Allegiant and Breeze both start service eventually.


I remember when UA flew 737's to ORD. The response was good but the weight restrictions were too much for UA and customers to bear and after almost 5 years UA cut the service. That was in the 90's, now with the next gen RJ's and the addition of overruns, trees cut, utility poles re-positioned and soon the displaced threshold on runway 20 will be gone. Filling a 50 seat RJ to ORD should not be hard for UA to do and when needed, upgauging to larger RJ's such as CRJ-700's and E-175's gives UA options to ORD.
The virus is the key as to whether more service will follow. All the majors have parked many RJ's and it would not be an expensive proposition for UA or DL to commit to several flights to ORD and ATL or DTW. Piedmont handles the ground operations at HVN and they could handle other airlines as well.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6194
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Mon Aug 17, 2020 2:06 pm

aaway wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
If they were, id imagine small cities that are within two hours drive of a hub airport might be on the list. ACT, TYR, GGG, and SPS come to mind.


My thinking is that SPS is most likely survivor of this grouping you've listed. GGG likely the weakest considering proximity to SHV and TYR.


I wonder about ACT. Ive got family in Waco and they never fly out of ACT because, through Fort Worth, DFW is 1.5 hours by car tops. Sometimes they do it in less than that.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
aaway
Posts: 1452
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2003 2:07 am

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Mon Aug 17, 2020 6:02 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
aaway wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
If they were, id imagine small cities that are within two hours drive of a hub airport might be on the list. ACT, TYR, GGG, and SPS come to mind.


My thinking is that SPS is most likely survivor of this grouping you've listed. GGG likely the weakest considering proximity to SHV and TYR.


I wonder about ACT. Ive got family in Waco and they never fly out of ACT because, through Fort Worth, DFW is 1.5 hours by car tops. Sometimes they do it in less than that.


Do you know if Baylor drives much traffic?
"The greatest mistake you can make in life is to continually be afraid you will make one." - Elbert Hubbard
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6194
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:53 pm

aaway wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
aaway wrote:

My thinking is that SPS is most likely survivor of this grouping you've listed. GGG likely the weakest considering proximity to SHV and TYR.


I wonder about ACT. Ive got family in Waco and they never fly out of ACT because, through Fort Worth, DFW is 1.5 hours by car tops. Sometimes they do it in less than that.


Do you know if Baylor drives much traffic?


Id imagine its one of the primary drivers of traffic there but I dont have any hard data. There is also L3 and Raytheon which employ a good amount of people there. There is also the whole Chip and Joanna thing which brings in more tourism than I would have thought per my family there.

But the main thing is that its just so close to DFW. There are also a bunch of van services that have schedules to DFW in 1.5 hours. I dont know the economics though.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
TXRoadMan
Posts: 63
Joined: Wed Apr 23, 2014 5:56 pm

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:32 pm

I flew into ACT pretty regularly for a couple of years, and while I don’t have any hard data, either, Baylor (both business and what appeared to be students) made up a good portion of traffic. There was quite a bit of other business traffic, too. I saw a lot of logos on swag that shouldn’t have had anything to do with Baylor on most trips.

My experience (and I talked to some others that had similar thoughts,) was that flying from ACT and driving to DFW had basically the same expected outcome.

On the flying side, the fare differential varied widely. Sometimes it was relatively cheap to price to/from ACT, sometimes it was prohibitive. Service was similar. The flights were never late or canceled unless you really had to be somewhere on time. (Yes, there’s probably a lot of confirmation bias in that, but that’s what the locals were thinking.) But when it worked, it was great. I only got to experience it for 1 or 2 trips, but the structured banks at DFW likely helped. I didn’t get a chance to ask any locals what they thought of it, but I’m sure most enjoy the shorter connect times. If you’re based out of ACT, you likely don’t want to sit in DFW for 3 hours when you could be home in 2 or less. I did talk to one guy -who I knew (more like ‘knew of’)- who didn’t mind sitting around, as he valued the 10 minute ‘commute’ home from ACT more important. Different strokes, I suppose...

On the driving side, it also depended. Driving time depends on your location within the Waco metro, but one wreck between the two points and 1:30 became 2:00 or 2:15. Add in fuel and parking costs (free the last time I was at ACT) and it became more of a toss-up.

My guess is that the fate of ACT and the other close-in airports is tied to the fate of the ERD and ER4. If AA keeps some around in order to service these close-in airports at 4-6x daily, the greater the likelihood they hang around as opposed to 2x E75 or 3x CR7.
 
enplaned
Posts: 168
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 9:49 pm

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:43 pm

I've been by Waco, and based on doing some driving around the area, I'd say the city could do worse than supplant ACT with CNW. By far the most important road in/near Waco is I-35 - ACT is located far off I-35, whereas from parts of CNW you can see I-35, it's that close.

A key driver of airport success is access, and CNW's access to I-35 is vastly superior. And there's a ton of room at CNW for whatever you might care to build there. Plus, it has an 8600 ft runway vs the 7100 ft runway at ACT. Move commercial service to CNW and let ACT revert to a GA airport.
 
HII
Posts: 44
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2010 6:13 pm

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:08 am

TXRoadMan wrote:
I flew into ACT pretty regularly for a couple of years, and while I don’t have any hard data, either, Baylor (both business and what appeared to be students) made up a good portion of traffic. There was quite a bit of other business traffic, too. I saw a lot of logos on swag that shouldn’t have had anything to do with Baylor on most trips.

My experience (and I talked to some others that had similar thoughts,) was that flying from ACT and driving to DFW had basically the same expected outcome.

On the flying side, the fare differential varied widely. Sometimes it was relatively cheap to price to/from ACT, sometimes it was prohibitive. Service was similar. The flights were never late or canceled unless you really had to be somewhere on time. (Yes, there’s probably a lot of confirmation bias in that, but that’s what the locals were thinking.) But when it worked, it was great. I only got to experience it for 1 or 2 trips, but the structured banks at DFW likely helped. I didn’t get a chance to ask any locals what they thought of it, but I’m sure most enjoy the shorter connect times. If you’re based out of ACT, you likely don’t want to sit in DFW for 3 hours when you could be home in 2 or less. I did talk to one guy -who I knew (more like ‘knew of’)- who didn’t mind sitting around, as he valued the 10 minute ‘commute’ home from ACT more important. Different strokes, I suppose...

On the driving side, it also depended. Driving time depends on your location within the Waco metro, but one wreck between the two points and 1:30 became 2:00 or 2:15. Add in fuel and parking costs (free the last time I was at ACT) and it became more of a toss-up.

My guess is that the fate of ACT and the other close-in airports is tied to the fate of the ERD and ER4. If AA keeps some around in order to service these close-in airports at 4-6x daily, the greater the likelihood they hang around as opposed to 2x E75 or 3x CR7.



CLL was the same way when I worked at A&M. We flew all professors and candidates through CLL and I took it half the time. It wasn’t too much more expensive once you calculated in parking, drive time, etc. I remember forgetting a bag and going back to get it, still having plenty of time for my flight to leave 15 min early. It was a god-send.
 
ScottB
Posts: 7117
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Tue Aug 18, 2020 5:24 am

deltairlines wrote:
SWF being dropped wouldn't surprise me in the least. It's on the wrong side of the river for New York City; those in Rockland County can just as easily get to HPN or EWR (and LGA isn't a huge hassle). Putnam County is still easier to get to HPN or really any of the NYC airports. SWF will be lucky to keep JetBlue flying to Florida (which probably can pull it off).


Putnam County is small (under 100K population) but relatively wealthy, but the northern and western parts of the county are easily closer to SWF. The NYC airports are all a giant pain-in-the-butt from Putnam (LGA is the least-bad option) and the Whitestone Bridge tolls are eye-watering. Parking is much, much cheaper at SWF.

It's just a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem -- SWF doesn't get many passengers because there's so little service, and they don't get much service because there are so few passengers. As gross as LGA/JFK/EWR are, people put up with the awful drive because you're guaranteed to be able to go non-stop to almost anywhere. The potential catchment from Orange, Dutchess, Ulster, and Putnam Counties is close to a million people.
 
aaway
Posts: 1452
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2003 2:07 am

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:55 pm

TXRoadMan wrote:
I flew into ACT pretty regularly for a couple of years, and while I don’t have any hard data, either, Baylor (both business and what appeared to be students) made up a good portion of traffic. There was quite a bit of other business traffic, too. I saw a lot of logos on swag that shouldn’t have had anything to do with Baylor on most trips.

My experience (and I talked to some others that had similar thoughts,) was that flying from ACT and driving to DFW had basically the same expected outcome.

....My guess is that the fate of ACT and the other close-in airports is tied to the fate of the ERD and ER4. If AA keeps some around in order to service these close-in airports at 4-6x daily, the greater the likelihood they hang around as opposed to 2x E75 or 3x CR7.


I concur as AA has initiated E-140 retirements. Most of the places we've discussed aren't candidates for upgrades to CR7s or E75s. Another factor - since AA has a monopoly in many of these Ark-La-Tex towns, a withdrawal of service wouldn't necessarily mean ceding the market. As you, LAX1023dude, and HII have indicated, the relatively short drives to DFW (or elsewhere, i.e. SHV) likely means AA maintains the market without the cost of directly serving the market.
"The greatest mistake you can make in life is to continually be afraid you will make one." - Elbert Hubbard
 
nwadeicer
Posts: 310
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2008 3:17 am

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:11 pm

NWAESC wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Sadly I don't think AA is alone I expect UA and DL to review similar ideas to shrink here.


Through DOT exemptions, DL cut 20-25(ish) domestic stations already. A handful will be back, but my guess is most won't.


My understanding that the Delta at FNT people were offered the opportunity to transfer to GRR, DTW or take personal leave.
I miss the Red Tail
 
aaway
Posts: 1452
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2003 2:07 am

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:13 pm

HII wrote:
TXRoadMan wrote:
....My guess is that the fate of ACT and the other close-in airports is tied to the fate of the ERD and ER4. If AA keeps some around in order to service these close-in airports at 4-6x daily, the greater the likelihood they hang around as opposed to 2x E75 or 3x CR7.


CLL was the same way when I worked at A&M. We flew all professors and candidates through CLL and I took it half the time. It wasn’t too much more expensive once you calculated in parking, drive time, etc. I remember forgetting a bag and going back to get it, still having plenty of time for my flight to leave 15 min early. It was a god-send.


LAXdude1023 wrote:
aaway wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
If they were, id imagine small cities that are within two hours drive of a hub airport might be on the list. ACT, TYR, GGG, and SPS come to mind.


My thinking is that SPS is most likely survivor of this grouping you've listed. GGG likely the weakest considering proximity to SHV and TYR.


I wonder about ACT. Ive got family in Waco and they never fly out of ACT because, through Fort Worth, DFW is 1.5 hours by car tops. Sometimes they do it in less than that.


An ironic blog post from today [fair use]: "Let's take one of American's smallest investment stations in 2019 as an example. Tyler, Texas is just 102 miles to the southeast of Dallas. In 2019, American operated on average four daily regional jets from DFW into the city. Just four daily flights flying 102 miles generated almost $12M in network revenue for the carrier. Put another way, American needed $4,000 in network revenue per flight to keep themselves interested in the market.

As I've stated before, it is impossible to know if American was making money in the Tyler (or any) market. But if they were making money before, it is unlikely they are making money now. This puts American into a difficult position with airports such as Tyler. With no other legacy carrier operating in the city, there might be some ability to yield in the market. On the flip side, if they were to exit the city, it is likely some of the passengers would just drive to DFW or Love Field. Any cash burn from the city would largely be eliminated with the some potential to recapture some of the lost revenue.

I do want to be clear, I am not saying American is leaving Tyler, I just want to use them as an example of the complicated decisions entering network planners minds."

https://www.flydataguy.com/2020/08/time ... ities.html
"The greatest mistake you can make in life is to continually be afraid you will make one." - Elbert Hubbard
 
User avatar
NWAESC
Posts: 1612
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2007 1:02 pm

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:27 pm

nwadeicer wrote:
NWAESC wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Sadly I don't think AA is alone I expect UA and DL to review similar ideas to shrink here.


Through DOT exemptions, DL cut 20-25(ish) domestic stations already. A handful will be back, but my guess is most won't.


My understanding that the Delta at FNT people were offered the opportunity to transfer to GRR, DTW or take personal leave.


I'm glad to hear it! I know MDW people could go over to ORD while it was closed. I think it opens back up mid-Sept.?
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
CAMPBELL
Posts: 36
Joined: Sat Apr 07, 2007 8:26 pm

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:41 pm

The Drive from Greenville, NC to Charlotte, NC is 249 miles, to Raleigh/Durham Airport is 96 miles, Norfolk Airport is 130 miles, New Bern, NC is 45 miles.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8504
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:46 pm

CAMPBELL wrote:
The Drive from Greenville, NC to Charlotte, NC is 249 miles, to Raleigh/Durham Airport is 96 miles, Norfolk Airport is 130 miles, New Bern, NC is 45 miles.


RDU is likely to retain a decent level of service, at least across the carriers. People are going to come to see driving 96 miles for a fair selection of non-stops and price competition as not so bad.
 
rj1385
Posts: 121
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2007 9:09 am

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:18 am

ScottB wrote:
deltairlines wrote:
SWF being dropped wouldn't surprise me in the least. It's on the wrong side of the river for New York City; those in Rockland County can just as easily get to HPN or EWR (and LGA isn't a huge hassle). Putnam County is still easier to get to HPN or really any of the NYC airports. SWF will be lucky to keep JetBlue flying to Florida (which probably can pull it off).


Putnam County is small (under 100K population) but relatively wealthy, but the northern and western parts of the county are easily closer to SWF. The NYC airports are all a giant pain-in-the-butt from Putnam (LGA is the least-bad option) and the Whitestone Bridge tolls are eye-watering. Parking is much, much cheaper at SWF.

It's just a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem -- SWF doesn't get many passengers because there's so little service, and they don't get much service because there are so few passengers. As gross as LGA/JFK/EWR are, people put up with the awful drive because you're guaranteed to be able to go non-stop to almost anywhere. The potential catchment from Orange, Dutchess, Ulster, and Putnam Counties is close to a million people.


Last I saw SWF had over 1.5 million residents within a 60 minute drive. AA is also a different carrier in the metro area than last time they left SWF. They are not so invested in JFK and LGA. There is not the competition at SWF there was back in 2007 (airTran). Now too, the Port Authority is now in control and will probably look to make a deal to keep them.
 
ScottB
Posts: 7117
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Thu Aug 20, 2020 2:37 am

rj1385 wrote:
Last I saw SWF had over 1.5 million residents within a 60 minute drive. AA is also a different carrier in the metro area than last time they left SWF. They are not so invested in JFK and LGA. There is not the competition at SWF there was back in 2007 (airTran). Now too, the Port Authority is now in control and will probably look to make a deal to keep them.


LOL that you think the Port Authority has the money to make a deal to keep AA at SWF. Covid-19 caused a $240 million/month revenue shortfall for the PANYNJ. Unless they get a bailout from the Feds, they're predicting a shortfall of at least $3 billion. It is highly likely that tolls and fares from PATH will stay depressed for an extended period as more people work from home. Revenue from LGA/JFK/EWR will remain depressed for years.

And let's not oversell the catchment area. While it may be factually correct that over 1.5 million people live within an hour drive of SWF, a bunch of those folks are in Westchester and Rockland (or even northern NJ), and they're probably not going to choose SWF given the proximity of HPN/LGA/EWR. Kingston is within an hour of SWF but it's also just barely over an hour from ALB. Danbury CT is within an hour but it's 45 minutes from HPN and an hour from BDL.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 741
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Thu Aug 20, 2020 11:51 am

A little OT but something like only 10% of workers in NYC when polled plan on returning to work in the city. This spells disaster for the PA and MTA, not to mention just about every other facet of NYC. Watching the brainless mayor you'd never know that such an impending disaster is in the waiting.

I have to wonder if airports like SWF/ISP would see traffice pick up as more people work from home and avoid the city for any reasons.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 3054
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:02 pm

AA suspends 15 markets from October 7 to November 3:

Del Rio, Texas
Dubuque, Iowa
Florence, S.C.
Greenville, N.C.
Huntington, W.Va.
Joplin, Mo.
Kalamazoo/Battle Creek, Mich.
Lake Charles, La.
New Haven, Conn.
New Windsor, N.Y.
Roswell, N.M.
Sioux City, Iowa
Springfield, Ill.
Stillwater, Okla.
Williamsport, Pa.

https://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2 ... fault.aspx
 
User avatar
enilria
Posts: 10301
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:18 pm

Ishrion wrote:
AA suspends 15 markets from October 7 to November 3:

Del Rio, Texas
Dubuque, Iowa
Florence, S.C.
Greenville, N.C.
Huntington, W.Va.
Joplin, Mo.
Kalamazoo/Battle Creek, Mich.
Lake Charles, La.
New Haven, Conn.
New Windsor, N.Y.
Roswell, N.M.
Sioux City, Iowa
Springfield, Ill.
Stillwater, Okla.
Williamsport, Pa.

https://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2 ... fault.aspx

Those names are weird. Here are the codes.



Del Rio, Texas DRT
Dubuque, Iowa DBQ
Florence, S.C. FLO
Greenville, N.C. PGV
Huntington, W.Va. HTS
Joplin, Mo. JLN
Kalamazoo/Battle Creek, Mich. AZO
Lake Charles, La. LCH
New Haven, Conn. HVN
New Windsor, N.Y. SWF
Roswell, N.M. ROW
Sioux City, Iowa SUX
Springfield, Ill. SPI
Stillwater, Okla. SWO
Williamsport, Pa. IPT
 
User avatar
klm617
Posts: 5246
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:20 pm

Ishrion wrote:
AA suspends 15 markets from October 7 to November 3:

Del Rio, Texas
Dubuque, Iowa
Florence, S.C.
Greenville, N.C.
Huntington, W.Va.
Joplin, Mo.
Kalamazoo/Battle Creek, Mich.
Lake Charles, La.
New Haven, Conn.
New Windsor, N.Y.
Roswell, N.M.
Sioux City, Iowa
Springfield, Ill.
Stillwater, Okla.
Williamsport, Pa.

https://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2 ... fault.aspx



I called that one I knew that AZO would be the only station in MI in jeopardy of losing service by AA.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
jasoncrh
Posts: 780
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 10:29 pm

Confirmed AA service suspensions

Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:21 pm

We now have this lust of confirmed service suspensions from October. Including New Haven, Williamsport, Del Rio, Joplin, and many others.
https://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2 ... fault.aspx
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