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VV
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:37 am

Noshow wrote:
LH is a hub airline focused on Frankfurt and Munich. It's no surprise that they don't favor subtypes that make hub bypassing possible.


Your comment may be right and it applies to many major European airlines.

KLM is a hub focused airline based in Amsterdam.
AirFrance is a hub airline based in Paris.
And so on.
 
Noshow
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:46 am

Hub airlines bundle traffic and use bigger airplanes. The business case for some A321XLR is to go straight from -say- Manchester to JFK and not Manchester-LHR-JFK. So the A321XLR is quite nice if you want to attack big players and avoid to fight them right at their fortress hubs.
 
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Carlos01
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:00 am

astuteman wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Meanwhile we have:

Lufthansa’s CEO, Carsten Spohr, has said that while the airline is considering ordering the A321XLR, he doesn’t think the airplane is a game changer:



Ref: https://onemileatatime.com/lufthansa-a321xlr/

It seems LH wants higher standards of payload, range and comfort.


I love that the title of that article is

"Why Lufthansa is wrong about the A321XLR" :)

The airplane has been one of the fastest selling models we’ve ever seen in the first few days of being introduced.


To race to c. 500 sales within the first year or so of launch indicates a pretty big niche.
Whilst it might not change the game for him, it shows every sign of doing so in the wider market.

Rgds


That's what I was thinking. The way the Lufthansa CEO sees his company now, he probably doesn't see a lot of use cases for the XLR, rightfully so. Having said that, I wonder if he is considering the fact that in 2025 Lufthansa might be a completely different species, fighting for survival, with a route map that looks very different from last year's.

And especially if other airlines manage to make a good use of the XLR, it could well be that Lufthansa has there a completely new problem. Maybe their strategy with geographic locations will become just obsolete? Instead of people all over Europe connecting via FRA or MUC to their long-haul destinations, they could just fly there more and more direct from northernn, easter, western, or southern Europe with the XLR?
 
gloom
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:22 am

Noshow wrote:
LH is a hub airline focused on Frankfurt and Munich. It's no surprise that they don't favor subtypes that make hub bypassing possible.


You seem to be missing one thing here. Big planes are for hub2hub connections. You don't go MUC to say YYZ on A321XLR, even if it's a route within range. For a number of reasons - bigger market, many smaller destinations served from both hubs, cargo.

However, if you have XLR, and one hub at one end, you can go with serving smaller destinations at the other end. So go on hub2small model, depending on available slots etc.

I see many smaller destinations for Lufthansa that XLR will open. Middle East perhaps, even if they go mostly via hubs? India, definitely. Some cities in Russia or ex Soviet republics. Canada, USA smaller destinations perhaps. All of these would help your business case, since you don't have to pay for local partner airline anymore, or reduce their share.

Plus, there are some big cities in Germany as well, unserved on middle haul market. MUC and FRA are only hubs left. What are the opportunities for Ruhr market (be it Dusseldorf, Koln)? Berlin? Hamburg? XLR could open some thin lines from there to all areas above.

I see a lot of potential at LH as well, just need to think different. And no, for feed size LH has built over years, I don't think it would canibalize traffic via hubs. Quite opposite - take O&D for premium direct, let leisure use hubs as always.

Cheers,
Adam
 
Noshow
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:08 am

Going right into foreign hub to point places needs bilaterals and will offend "partner" airlines from joint ventures and alliances. Something that traditional big players have in place. This is why I don't see the A321XLR being so much needed by legacy carriers. Well except for those routes where we have seen the 757 being used on before maybe.
 
VV
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:30 am

Noshow wrote:
Going right into foreign hub to point places needs bilaterals and will offend "partner" airlines from joint ventures and alliances. Something that traditional big players have in place. This is why I don't see the A321XLR being so much needed by legacy carriers. Well except for those routes where we have seen the 757 being used on before maybe.


So which airlines would take A321XLR?

There is something that has been bugging my mind since several months now. All of a sudden I realized what it is.

The A321XLR rear center tank is fully integrated into the structure and thus it is not removable and the landing gear structure is reinforced to take the 101 tonne MTOW.

I am just wondering what that weight penalty means when the aircraft enters the second hand market. I can see the aircraft being re-declared as having lower MTOW if the customer does not need the range, but then they will always carry that dead weight.

The A321XLR sounds cool for the first hand customer, but what about the second hand market. Will it be more attractive than the baseline A321neo if the customer does not need the range? For instance for operators in Europe.

That's an interesting item to discuss.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:49 am

VV wrote:
Noshow wrote:
Going right into foreign hub to point places needs bilaterals and will offend "partner" airlines from joint ventures and alliances. Something that traditional big players have in place. This is why I don't see the A321XLR being so much needed by legacy carriers. Well except for those routes where we have seen the 757 being used on before maybe.


So which airlines would take A321XLR?

There is something that has been bugging my mind since several months now. All of a sudden I realized what it is.

The A321XLR rear center tank is fully integrated into the structure and thus it is not removable and the landing gear structure is reinforced to take the 101 tonne MTOW.

I am just wondering what that weight penalty means when the aircraft enters the second hand market. I can see the aircraft being re-declared as having lower MTOW if the customer does not need the range, but then they will always carry that dead weight.

The A321XLR sounds cool for the first hand customer, but what about the second hand market. Will it be more attractive than the baseline A321neo if the customer does not need the range? For instance for operators in Europe.

That's an interesting item to discuss.


Will it be more attractive than the baseline neo if the customer doesn't need the range? No. But then it will be more attractive for airlines that do need the range.
 
Noshow
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:54 am

I can imagine that leasing companies or original airline customers take XLRs even without needing their range but just because they will be more variable and resell better. IF the price tag is not too high.
 
VV
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:08 am

MrHMSH wrote:
...
Will it be more attractive than the baseline neo if the customer doesn't need the range? No. But then it will be more attractive for airlines that do need the range.


That's exactly the issue, isn't it?

How many airlines want small aircraft to fly those long routes?

The second very important question is the re-market value (residual value) of such A321XLR, knowing that the second hand customer may not be interested by the range capability.
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:14 am

VV wrote:
Noshow wrote:
Going right into foreign hub to point places needs bilaterals and will offend "partner" airlines from joint ventures and alliances. Something that traditional big players have in place. This is why I don't see the A321XLR being so much needed by legacy carriers. Well except for those routes where we have seen the 757 being used on before maybe.


So which airlines would take A321XLR?

There is something that has been bugging my mind since several months now. All of a sudden I realized what it is.

The A321XLR rear center tank is fully integrated into the structure and thus it is not removable and the landing gear structure is reinforced to take the 101 tonne MTOW.

I am just wondering what that weight penalty means when the aircraft enters the second hand market. I can see the aircraft being re-declared as having lower MTOW if the customer does not need the range, but then they will always carry that dead weight.

The A321XLR sounds cool for the first hand customer, but what about the second hand market. Will it be more attractive than the baseline A321neo if the customer does not need the range? For instance for operators in Europe.

That's an interesting item to discuss.


Its my understanding that the weight increase is effectively zero. The increase in weight due to higher MTOW and the additional RCT is offset by the simple flap/wing setup. I believe there is a flight global article on the subject.

Fred
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VV
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:16 am

flipdewaf wrote:
...
Its my understanding that the weight increase is effectively zero. The increase in weight due to higher MTOW and the additional RCT is offset by the simple flap/wing setup. I believe there is a flight global article on the subject.


The comparison must be done on the same production standard (same production year), otherwise you compare banana against apple.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:19 am

VV wrote:
Noshow wrote:
Going right into foreign hub to point places needs bilaterals and will offend "partner" airlines from joint ventures and alliances. Something that traditional big players have in place. This is why I don't see the A321XLR being so much needed by legacy carriers. Well except for those routes where we have seen the 757 being used on before maybe.


So which airlines would take A321XLR?

There is something that has been bugging my mind since several months now. All of a sudden I realized what it is.

The A321XLR rear center tank is fully integrated into the structure and thus it is not removable and the landing gear structure is reinforced to take the 101 tonne MTOW.

I am just wondering what that weight penalty means when the aircraft enters the second hand market. I can see the aircraft being re-declared as having lower MTOW if the customer does not need the range, but then they will always carry that dead weight..


What makes you think the A321XLR is heavier than a bog-standard A321 with one ACT, which is what plenty of A321s haul around anyways?

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:23 am

VV wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
...
Its my understanding that the weight increase is effectively zero. The increase in weight due to higher MTOW and the additional RCT is offset by the simple flap/wing setup. I believe there is a flight global article on the subject.


The comparison must be done on the same production standard (same production year), otherwise you compare banana against apple.


Must? Since when? the effect is by its very nature due to an increase and improvement in technology that is developed over time and as such very much needs NOT to be done as you suggest. In this instance we are indeed comparing an apple to a banana, that doesnt make it somehow an unfair test, it makes the fruit the variable.

Fred
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Noshow
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:28 am

Could some XLR on shorter routes load more cargo weight to make use of the increased MTOW when not topping off the tanks?
 
VV
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:35 am

tommy1808 wrote:
...
What makes you think the A321XLR is heavier than a bog-standard A321 with one ACT, which is what plenty of A321s haul around anyways?


I am not sure your statement about the number ("plenty") of A321neo with one ACT is correct.
 
VV
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:39 am

flipdewaf wrote:
VV wrote:
...
The comparison must be done on the same production standard (same production year), otherwise you compare banana against apple.


Must? Since when? the effect is by its very nature due to an increase and improvement in technology that is developed over time and as such very much needs NOT to be done as you suggest. In this instance we are indeed comparing an apple to a banana, that doesnt make it somehow an unfair test, it makes the fruit the variable.


Obviously you must do it at the same prod timing.

You cannot compare an A321NEO of the first generation against the A321XLR.

There is a risk that a baseline A321NEO produced without the RCT and without the reinforced landing gear but with one slotted flaps is more attarctive in the long term than an A321XLR.

Unless, Airbus decides to build exclusively XLR-ready A321neo and airlines have to suck up the weight penalty.
 
AlanG1302
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:40 am

Reality is: 24 customers ordered about 500 XLRs already. Plus the thousands of standard A321s and A321NEOs and LRs already ordered. Yet we have one user again who is constantly UNDERESTIMATING the A321 or Airbus in general. But yes Airbus is in deep trouble about the bad second hand value of a plane which will EIS in 3 years...smh.
 
pythoniels
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:44 am

Noshow wrote:
LH is a hub airline focused on Frankfurt and Munich. It's no surprise that they don't favor subtypes that make hub bypassing possible.

True, however you forget that this plane can also be used for thinner routes from major hubs to still offer daily or 5x weekly connections, interesting for business people.

I remember that LH wanted to fly to Pune, India with a A320/321 aircraft and make a technical stop in Baku. This aircraft would perhaps be the ideal plane for such route to avoid a technical stop and with a decent J/W seat, can still charge a premium price.
 
VV
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:45 am

AlanG1302 wrote:
Reality is: 24 customers ordered about 500 XLRs already. Plus the thousands of standard A321s and A321NEOs and LRs already ordered. Yet we have one user again who is constantly UNDERESTIMATING the A321 or Airbus in general. But yes Airbus is in deep trouble about the bad second hand value of a plane which will EIS in 3 years...smh.


That's a very good news for Airbus.

The point is that Airbus can decide to build A321XLR ready aircraft with RCT and tell airlines that do not need the range to suck up the weight penalty.

Or the other outcome is that the baseline aircraft produced at the same time without the RCT will retain better residual value.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:45 am

VV wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
VV wrote:
...
The comparison must be done on the same production standard (same production year), otherwise you compare banana against apple.


Must? Since when? the effect is by its very nature due to an increase and improvement in technology that is developed over time and as such very much needs NOT to be done as you suggest. In this instance we are indeed comparing an apple to a banana, that doesnt make it somehow an unfair test, it makes the fruit the variable.


Obviously you must do it at the same prod timing.

You cannot compare an A321NEO of the first generation against the A321XLR.

There is a risk that a baseline A321NEO produced without the RCT and without the reinforced landing gear but with one slotted flaps is more attarctive in the long term than an A321XLR.


because they want to avoid the lower maintenance cost of the simpler design? Or the better field performance?

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 11:36 am

VV wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
VV wrote:
...
The comparison must be done on the same production standard (same production year), otherwise you compare banana against apple.


Must? Since when? the effect is by its very nature due to an increase and improvement in technology that is developed over time and as such very much needs NOT to be done as you suggest. In this instance we are indeed comparing an apple to a banana, that doesnt make it somehow an unfair test, it makes the fruit the variable.


Obviously you must do it at the same prod timing.

You cannot compare an A321NEO of the first generation against the A321XLR.

There is a risk that a baseline A321NEO produced without the RCT and without the reinforced landing gear but with one slotted flaps is more attarctive in the long term than an A321XLR.

Unless, Airbus decides to build exclusively XLR-ready A321neo and airlines have to suck up the weight penalty.


What weight penalty? Arguing via tropes is very tiresome.

Fred
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tphuang
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 11:38 am

VV wrote:
AlanG1302 wrote:
Reality is: 24 customers ordered about 500 XLRs already. Plus the thousands of standard A321s and A321NEOs and LRs already ordered. Yet we have one user again who is constantly UNDERESTIMATING the A321 or Airbus in general. But yes Airbus is in deep trouble about the bad second hand value of a plane which will EIS in 3 years...smh.


That's a very good news for Airbus.

The point is that Airbus can decide to build A321XLR ready aircraft with RCT and tell airlines that do not need the range to suck up the weight penalty.

Or the other outcome is that the baseline aircraft produced at the same time without the RCT will retain better residual value.


This is an aircraft with already 24 customers and over 500 in sales including some blue chip airlines. And it is 3 years away from EIS. The idea that it will somehow not have resale value is rather far fetched.

Once you start seeing AA/UA/B6 operating XLR on a lot of these TATL markets, it will soon become apparent that all other legacy carriers will have to also use it in medium to smaller markets that don't have a lot of cargo demand. The economics of XLR will win out.

At the end of the day, it will be far easier for an airline like JetBlue to sell 30J + 100Y seat per flight than BA selling 100J/F + 175 PE/Y seats per flight. You should be more concerned about the secondary market for smaller widebodies.
 
VV
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:07 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
...
What weight penalty? Arguing via tropes is very tiresome.


I guess you are suggesting that the RCT does not have weight penalty.

Let's see it in a simple manner.

The differences between a normal A321neo and A321XLR are:
  1. MTOW is increased to 101 tonnes
  2. Main landing gear is reinforced to cope with the increased MTOW
  3. Increased Maximum Brake Energy brakes (beefed up brakes)
  4. an integrated fix rear center tank (RCT) is build-in, thus it cannot be removed
  5. one slotted flaps

Let us go to 2023. Let us assume in 2023 Airbus still produces two versions of A321neo. One is the baseline A321neo and another that is the A321XLR.
I think this is a reasonable assumption, considering the fact
  1. A321XLR has a price premium for its extra range capability
  2. some airlines will not need the A321XLR's range

So, in 2023 the baseline version will differ from the XLR
  1. The baseline version will have the same single slotted flaps too for standardization
  2. The non reinforced landing gear may be maintained for the baseline version
  3. Will have the same brakes as other A321neo
  4. the baseline version will not have the RCT

Now, I sincerely think the fact the XLR configuration has an RCT, a stronger main landing gear and beefed up brakes will be heavier.
Or perhaps someone has the magic mean to build zero weight RCT.

Airbus can also decide to produce only ONE A321neo that is XLR ready with RCT from 2023 onward, but they need to tell the airlines that do not need the range to suck up the weight penalty.

I hope I explained it clearly.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:20 pm

VV wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
...
What weight penalty? Arguing via tropes is very tiresome.


I guess you are suggesting that the RCT does not have weight penalty.

Let's see it in a simple manner.

The differences between a normal A321neo and A321XLR are:
  1. MTOW is increased to 101 tonnes


Does not strictly require extra weight. Might be no more than a payload restriction when actually using the TOW, as it is with the A350 for example.

  • Main landing gear is reinforced to cope with the increased MTOW


  • Reinforced does not need to mean heavier, and can even be lighter... for example if you swap a construct for a monolithic 3D printed part.

  • Increased Maximum Brake Energy brakes (beefed up brakes)


  • Does not have to mean they are heavier, it's not like breakes stopped evolving when the A320 family got its current brakes.

  • an integrated fix rear center tank (RCT) is build-in, thus it cannot be removed


  • Weighing less than one ACT

  • one slotted flaps


  • That is lighter than the current design, making up for the puny RCT weight increase.

    Best regards
    Thomas
    Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
     
    VV
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:33 pm

    tommy1808 wrote:
    Does not strictly require extra weight. Might be no more than a payload restriction when actually using the TOW, as it is with the A350 for example.

    The RCT has weight (I am talking about WEIGHT and not TOW) and thus the aircraft burns more fuel carrying unnecessary dead weight if you do not need the range.

    Reinforced does not need to mean heavier, and can even be lighter... for example if you swap a construct for a monolithic 3D printed part.

    Then you can build lighter brake for the baseline version and standardize the production.

    Does not have to mean they are heavier, it's not like breakes stopped evolving when the A320 family got its current brakes.

    See above about standardization of brakes.

    Weighing less than one ACT

    A lot of European operators do not even need ACT. Why are you always comparing it with one ACT? The assumption is that some airlines do not need extra fuel capacity at all.

    [*]one slotted flaps[/list]

    That is lighter than the current design, making up for the puny RCT weight increase.

    Didn't I mention that the standard configuration in 2023 would be with single slotted flaps for all A321neo, baseline or XLR?

    I really do not understand your argument, but it is okay.

    Unless someone can build an RCT wall and the kevlar lining with ZERO weight, there will always be a physical extra weight (not TOW). I do not even mention the extra plumbing, fuel pump and so on.

    You can forget the other weight items, just take the RCT's weight into consideration.
     
    flipdewaf
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:47 pm

    VV wrote:
    flipdewaf wrote:
    ...
    What weight penalty? Arguing via tropes is very tiresome.


    I guess you are suggesting that the RCT does not have weight penalty.

    Let's see it in a simple manner.

    The differences between a normal A321neo and A321XLR are:
    1. MTOW is increased to 101 tonnes

    You don't have to take off at MTOW, you do know that right?
    VV wrote:
  • Main landing gear is reinforced to cope with the increased MTOW

  • is it? Maybe its gained margin through increased analysis, pretty standard technique.
    VV wrote:
  • Increased Maximum Brake Energy brakes (beefed up brakes)

  • But the new wing maintains V speeds in accordance with 93t bird... KE=1/2MV^2
    VV wrote:
  • an integrated fix rear center tank (RCT) is build-in, thus it cannot be removed

  • yep, I see your point here, what if someone doesnt want that particular part on the second hand market and what is the on cost for fuel burn with this additional weight... I guess the standard delivery of an A321 with an easily removable and higher weight ACT that gets left in and not used often would show how that goes down...
    VV wrote:
  • one slotted flaps

  • Let us go to 2023. Let us assume in 2023 Airbus still produces two versions of A321neo. One is the baseline A321neo and another that is the A321XLR.
    I think this is a reasonable assumption, considering the fact
    1. A321XLR has a price premium for its extra range capability
    2. some airlines will not need the A321XLR's range

    So, in 2023 the baseline version will differ from the XLR
    1. The baseline version will have the same single slotted flaps too for standardization
    2. The non reinforced landing gear may be maintained for the baseline version
    3. Will have the same brakes as other A321neo
    4. the baseline version will not have the RCT

    Now, I sincerely think the fact the XLR configuration has an RCT, a stronger main landing gear and beefed up brakes will be heavier.
    Or perhaps someone has the magic mean to build zero weight RCT.

    Airbus can also decide to produce only ONE A321neo that is XLR ready with RCT from 2023 onward, but they need to tell the airlines that do not need the range to suck up the weight penalty.

    I hope I explained it clearly.


    Maybe they do, airlines who don't need the plumbing and sealing for a centre wing box have to suck that up too right? Same as the beefed up gear capable of 97t even if they only want a lower weight variant..seems a lot has to be sucked up and you don't always get a fully optimised aircraft. My guess is that the weight of the RCT probably isn't much more than the increase in carpet crpa that old aircraft get.

    Every cloud has a silver lining, unless its an airbus cloud and then we should assume its mercury...

    Fred
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    Polot
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:30 pm

    According to Airbus the RCT weighs about the same as one ACT, and takes up the space of 2 ACTs.

    Airbus is not going to make the XLR RCT standard. Aside from the fact that not everyone needs it and might prefer the additional cargo space for a more regional role, Airbus has sold thousands upon thousands of base A321neos. They are not going to turn around and give them the RCT and extra capability it provides for free.

    flipdewaf wrote:
    You don't have to take off at MTOW, you do know that right?

    From a weight perspective any additional reinforcement to support that MTOW (which may increase OEW) is there whether the plane is taking off at MTOW or not though.
    Last edited by Polot on Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
     
    tommy1808
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:30 pm

    VV wrote:
    tommy1808 wrote:
    Does not strictly require extra weight. Might be no more than a payload restriction when actually using the TOW, as it is with the A350 for example.

    The RCT has weight (I am talking about WEIGHT and not TOW) and thus the aircraft burns more fuel carrying unnecessary dead weight if you do not need the range.


    Ohm... yeah, you where talking about increased MTOW, not me...

    Reinforced does not need to mean heavier, and can even be lighter... for example if you swap a construct for a monolithic 3D printed part.

    Then you can build lighter brake for the baseline version and standardize the production.


    You may want to check what standardisation means. Putting a lighter variant on the baseline, and the "heavy" one on the XLR is the opposite of standardisation.

    Unless someone can build an RCT wall and the kevlar lining with ZERO weight, there will always be a physical extra weight (not TOW)


    Unless of course that extra, spaced wall is designed load bearing and allows making the rest of the frame lighter. Let's see your finite element analysis and then we can talk.

    Best regards
    Thomas
    Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
     
    frmrCapCadet
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:39 pm

    And many of us said Boeing needed the NMA. Isn't this proof?
    Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
     
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    Revelation
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:12 pm

    astuteman wrote:
    I love that the title of that article is

    "Why Lufthansa is wrong about the A321XLR" :)

    Glad to please, but I don't put merit in what a blogger puts in a title to get clicks, he's not the one deciding what airplanes to buy.

    Carlos01 wrote:
    The way the Lufthansa CEO sees his company now, he probably doesn't see a lot of use cases for the XLR, rightfully so. Having said that, I wonder if he is considering the fact that in 2025 Lufthansa might be a completely different species, fighting for survival, with a route map that looks very different from last year's.

    So you're saying this airline fighting for survival will go out and buy a new fleet of expensive narrowbodies?

    Carlos01 wrote:
    And especially if other airlines manage to make a good use of the XLR, it could well be that Lufthansa has there a completely new problem. Maybe their strategy with geographic locations will become just obsolete? Instead of people all over Europe connecting via FRA or MUC to their long-haul destinations, they could just fly there more and more direct from northernn, easter, western, or southern Europe with the XLR?

    The reason why places such as FRA and MUC are hubs (and CDG, LHR, etc) is because they also have large origin and destination traffic too. I think larger cities will have the advantage during the covid recovery since the big issue will be assembling enough people willing and able to go some where at the same time.
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    Sokes
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:15 pm

    frmrCapCadet wrote:
    And many of us said Boeing needed the NMA. Isn't this proof?

    :checkmark:
    But then I assume Boeing is/ was waiting for engine makers to get ready to commit.
    Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
     
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    Polot
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:18 pm

    Sokes wrote:
    frmrCapCadet wrote:
    And many of us said Boeing needed the NMA. Isn't this proof?

    :checkmark:
    But then I assume Boeing is/ was waiting for engine makers to get ready to commit.

    It’s really just a series of unfortunate events.

    Boeing was moving full steam towards a NMA then the 737max grounding happened. Without it Boeing probably would have launched something last year.

    And when the 737max grounding is finally taken care of there is the fact pandemic that has maimed the entire industry.
     
    tommy1808
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:23 pm

    frmrCapCadet wrote:
    And many of us said Boeing needed the NMA. Isn't this proof?


    Its proof there is a market for a small, longer range aircraft with minimal development cost that can be offered at the low cost of the highest volume narrow body jet.

    It doesn't appear that Beoings problem was selling airlines the concept of the NMA, it is pretty cool and likely useful, but to literally sell it. As in asking a price airlines are willing to pay.

    Best regards
    Thomas
    Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
     
    Sokes
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:28 pm

    pythoniels wrote:
    Noshow wrote:
    LH is a hub airline focused on Frankfurt and Munich. It's no surprise that they don't favor subtypes that make hub bypassing possible.

    True, however you forget that this plane can also be used for thinner routes from major hubs to still offer daily or 5x weekly connections, interesting for business people.

    I remember that LH wanted to fly to Pune, India with a A320/321 aircraft and make a technical stop in Baku. This aircraft would perhaps be the ideal plane for such route to avoid a technical stop and with a decent J/W seat, can still charge a premium price.

    Munich and Frankfurt are big villages compared to London, Paris or New York.
    One stop connections are great, but probably require O+D of such huge cities for the connecting hub.
    Now an airport with four runways North of London would give the XLR a lot more potential.

    Europe to India and further East without crossing Russian airspace would best hub in Baku or Teheran. Dubai is too far South, may however be better for Afrika.
    When I checked some years back there were no direct flights Munich to Baku. I think Frankfurt to Baku existed.
    I assume Germany and other European countries are not keen to give attractive traffic rights to Baku.
    On top of it Lufthansa wants to make a technical stop?
    Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
     
    Sokes
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:31 pm

    Polot wrote:
    Boeing was moving full steam towards a NMA then the 737max grounding happened. Without it Boeing probably would have launched something last year.

    Which engine maker was willing to commit?

    Same problem for A330 Neo. They had to adjust to whatever engine was available.
    Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
     
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    Polot
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:45 pm

    Sokes wrote:
    Polot wrote:
    Boeing was moving full steam towards a NMA then the 737max grounding happened. Without it Boeing probably would have launched something last year.

    Which engine maker was willing to commit?

    Boeing was in talks with CFM/PW over a beefed up LEAP or GTF. IIRC RR had withdrew from talks and wasn’t planning on offering any engine.
     
    Sokes
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:39 pm

    I believe it doesn't take several years to redesign flaps and landing gear and add a fuel tank. I conclude the engine maker demanded that time frame.

    I assume so far engine makers could choose if they prefer to design an engine for a 120 t (Boeing clean sheet) narrowbody or 180-200 t widebody as a B757/ B767 replacement.
    Once Airbus delivered a few hundred XLR the choice has to be a re-engined A330-800 and a shortened version.
    So the XLR is a strategic move and Airbus better hurries before an engine maker can commit.
    Last edited by Sokes on Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
    Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
     
    Sokes
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:42 pm

    Polot wrote:
    Boeing was in talks with CFM/PW over a beefed up LEAP or GTF. IIRC RR had withdrew from talks and wasn’t planning on offering any engine.

    I didn't know. I thought nobody was willing.
    Anybody got some info about GE?
    Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
     
    VV
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:43 pm

    Sokes wrote:
    I believe it doesn't take several years to redesign flaps and landing gear and add a fuel tank. I conclude the engine maker demanded that time frame. ...


    Wait, I do not understand. Are you saying the above on the A321XLR?

    I believe Airbus is using the same engine as the other A321neo.
    Are you suggesting there could be some changes now?
     
    Sokes
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:46 pm

    VV wrote:
    Are you suggesting there could be some changes now?

    Same engine, but more wear and tear.
    Introduction further down the learning curve, so to say.
    Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
     
    flipdewaf
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:47 pm

    I thought it would take about 4 years to design and certify a fuel tank mod?

    Fred


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    VV
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:48 pm

    Sokes wrote:
    VV wrote:
    Are you suggesting there could be some changes now?

    Same engine, but more wear and tear.
    Introduction further down the learning curve, so to say.


    Okay, so the three (or four) years from launch in 2019 to certification in 2023 is purely for landing gear, RCT and flaps development and manufacturing plus the certification.

    That's what you say, correct?

    And the RCT is for an aluminium fuselage, right?
     
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    Revelation
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 4:26 pm

    Sokes wrote:
    I believe it doesn't take several years to redesign flaps and landing gear and add a fuel tank. I conclude the engine maker demanded that time frame.

    I assume so far engine makers could choose if they prefer to design an engine for a 120 t (Boeing clean sheet) narrowbody or 180-200 t widebody as a B757/ B767 replacement.
    Once Airbus delivered a few hundred XLR the choice has to be a re-engined A330-800 and a shortened version.
    So the XLR is a strategic move and Airbus better hurries before an engine maker can commit.

    It seemed to me they were doing more than adding a fuel tank, it seemed like they were redoing large parts of the center wing box. At least that's what it appeared like to me on some pictures from flightglobal that have now disappeared behind a paywall. Seems FG lets you look for free for a few days then they move things behind the paywall.

    I'm not a structural engineer nor an aviation professional, but it seems like the only way to account for the scope of the project based on historical norms would be if it's more work than just "redesign flaps and landing gear and add a fuel tank". Heck, even adding more resources to the program is not pulling in the end date, according to our thread starter article. That seems strange to me.

    If one wanted to speculate, one could see how XLR could be re-engineering the center wing box not just for the new fuel capacity, but also to be able to eventually accept (perhaps with mods) the new wing that most of us feel is inevitable for the A32x family. But that's just my speculation.

    The only other speculation I could offer is EASA saw how FAA was raked over the coals for not being sufficiently engaged in the MAX program and is being very circumspect with regard to the XLR. They could have decided they wanted more data, thus Airbus had to add more people to keep the current end date. Again, just speculation.
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    FluidFlow
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 4:52 pm

    Revelation wrote:
    Sokes wrote:
    I believe it doesn't take several years to redesign flaps and landing gear and add a fuel tank. I conclude the engine maker demanded that time frame.

    I assume so far engine makers could choose if they prefer to design an engine for a 120 t (Boeing clean sheet) narrowbody or 180-200 t widebody as a B757/ B767 replacement.
    Once Airbus delivered a few hundred XLR the choice has to be a re-engined A330-800 and a shortened version.
    So the XLR is a strategic move and Airbus better hurries before an engine maker can commit.

    It seemed to me they were doing more than adding a fuel tank, it seemed like they were redoing large parts of the center wing box. At least that's what it appeared like to me on some pictures from flightglobal that have now disappeared behind a paywall. Seems FG lets you look for free for a few days then they move things behind the paywall.

    I'm not a structural engineer nor an aviation professional, but it seems like the only way to account for the scope of the project based on historical norms would be if it's more work than just "redesign flaps and landing gear and add a fuel tank". Heck, even adding more resources to the program is not pulling in the end date, according to our thread starter article. That seems strange to me.

    If one wanted to speculate, one could see how XLR could be re-engineering the center wing box not just for the new fuel capacity, but also to be able to eventually accept (perhaps with mods) the new wing that most of us feel is inevitable for the A32x family. But that's just my speculation.

    The only other speculation I could offer is EASA saw how FAA was raked over the coals for not being sufficiently engaged in the MAX program and is being very circumspect with regard to the XLR. They could have decided they wanted more data, thus Airbus had to add more people to keep the current end date. Again, just speculation.



    I think as well that Airbus is including more upgrades into the XLR than actually necesssary (to get the range advertised) to future proof the aircraft family. Because the XLR is a bigger change than the LR a few PIPs were not enough (see new tank and flaps) so why not include even more upgrades that help to improve the aircraft further.
     
    VV
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 5:04 pm

    Revelation wrote:
    ...
    It seemed to me they were doing more than adding a fuel tank, it seemed like they were redoing large parts of the center wing box. At least that's what it appeared like to me on some pictures from flightglobal that have now disappeared behind a paywall. Seems FG lets you look for free for a few days then they move things behind the paywall.

    I'm not a structural engineer nor an aviation professional, but it seems like the only way to account for the scope of the project based on historical norms would be if it's more work than just "redesign flaps and landing gear and add a fuel tank". Heck, even adding more resources to the program is not pulling in the end date, according to our thread starter article. That seems strange to me.

    If one wanted to speculate, one could see how XLR could be re-engineering the center wing box not just for the new fuel capacity, but also to be able to eventually accept (perhaps with mods) the new wing that most of us feel is inevitable for the A32x family. But that's just my speculation.

    The only other speculation I could offer is EASA saw how FAA was raked over the coals for not being sufficiently engaged in the MAX program and is being very circumspect with regard to the XLR. They could have decided they wanted more data, thus Airbus had to add more people to keep the current end date. Again, just speculation.


    Are you insinuating that there is a possibility the modification is so extensive that there would not be any "baseline" A321neo any more?
     
    slider
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 5:12 pm

    Bottom line IMHO is that an A321XLR will eat Boeing's lunch.

    Being caught flat-footed is not helping Boeing at this point longer term.
     
    Sokes
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 5:16 pm

    VV wrote:
    Sokes wrote:
    VV wrote:
    Are you suggesting there could be some changes now?

    Same engine, but more wear and tear.
    Introduction further down the learning curve, so to say.


    Okay, so the three (or four) years from launch in 2019 to certification in 2023 is purely for landing gear, RCT and flaps development and manufacturing plus the certification.

    That's what you say, correct?

    And the RCT is for an aluminium fuselage, right?

    I don't think what I wrote is difficult to understand.
    But I'm not sure what you are trying to say. Do you have an interesting hypothesis about the fuselage?
    Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
     
    Sokes
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 5:19 pm

    Revelation wrote:
    If one wanted to speculate, one could see how XLR could be re-engineering the center wing box not just for the new fuel capacity, but also to be able to eventually accept (perhaps with mods) the new wing that most of us feel is inevitable for the A32x family. But that's just my speculation.

    Good info and interesting speculation.
    I didn't knew about the wing box.
    Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
     
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 5:21 pm

    VV wrote:
    Are you insinuating that there is a possibility the modification is so extensive that there would not be any "baseline" A321neo any more?

    No, I have no idea if that would be the case. We've seen both happen. For instance Boeing kept the 737-700 very different from -800 and -900/ER because it had specific targets to hit. We've also seen Boeing try to get 787-8 to converge on the 787-9/10. Airbus could keep two different baselines, A319/20/21 vs A321XLR/A322/...
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    flipdewaf
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    Re: Airbus is stepping up development A321XLR

    Wed Aug 19, 2020 5:25 pm

    It could be that during the covid crisis cash is king and as such they have stopped all/most discretionary spend and have focused the bulk of the Airbus employed resource on the area with the best ROI.

    Fred


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