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smartplane
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:16 pm

As mentioned earlier, the A330NEO is constrained from below by used 787's, and especially the CEO. The 787 electronic admin features are considered detrimental in the used market, whereas the CEO is simple.

The second problem for the NEO is the A350. NEO features and pricing have been constrained to make space (protect - Airbus would say nurture) the A350. If NEO low hanging and already in existence enhancements were rolled out, and A350 style margins approved, the A330 would likely outsell it's bigger brother.

Presumably the vision was to make the A380 and A350 gradually larger, increasing the market for the NEO. Unfortunately, the WB market has shrunk massively, and simultaneously, what little new WB aircraft demand still exists, has shrunk in preferred aircraft size too.

Much more important than phasing one model out or keeping both, is how Airbus position the two in terms of pricing. Unbelievable though it may seem, in today's market, the A350 has become the niche large, and the A220 the niche small model in the Airbus range, both requiring significant investment to prosper. Will they get it? Or will all the A320 and A330 family ready to go / designed enhancements (and finer margins) now get the green light?

Spoiling the opposition and self-protection are features of an oligopoly. A380 pricing was constrained by the 748 and 777. 777X launch pricing was constrained by the A380 and A350. A320 growth / capability versions have been withheld to protect the A330. A330 growth / capability versions have been withheld to protect the A350. A350 growth / capability versions were withheld to protect the A380.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Airbus looking for a new A220 owner, or at least JV partner. Step this way Mitsubishi. Or China.

A330NEO v A350 is an ego issue, so likely A350 prevails, and NEO becomes an Airbus 767 style low volume model. Fence sitters will say do nothing. The brave will say rollout an A330-1000NEO and keep the A350 until (if) the X falters.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:33 pm

I'm guessing there will be a lot of gently used 787's on the market soon from insolvent carriers. That is the biggest threat to new A330 sales.
 
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Antaras
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:48 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
I'm guessing there will be a lot of gently used 787's on the market soon from insolvent carriers. That is the biggest threat to new A330 sales.

The biggest thread to the A330neo's sale is the secondhand A330ceo on the market, not the 787.
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:53 pm

Antaras wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
I'm guessing there will be a lot of gently used 787's on the market soon from insolvent carriers. That is the biggest threat to new A330 sales.

The biggest thread to the A330neo's sale is the secondhand A330ceo on the market, not the 787.


Maybe if they are going at a fire sale price. I can't see paying a premium for an airplane designed in the 1980's vs one that entered service in the last decade.
 
acavpics
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:11 am

Didn't the A330 CEO take about a decade to actually sell successfully? I wouldn't give up on this just yet.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:11 am

Revelation wrote:
And then you need to figure in opportunity cost: what else could you have been doing with that time, talent and money?
...Boeing should have just let Airbus do what it wanted in that segment and put its money towards something really useful such as the original Yellowstone plan that had no 747-8 but did have a 737 replacement and a 777 replacement too.


I know I'm quoting these off topic..... but man... I wish Boeing had just stayed the Y1, Y2, Y3 coarse..... They let Y2 foul-ups (787) scare them silly.....

Opportunity costs.
learning never stops...

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jeffrey0032j
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 1:50 am

acavpics wrote:
Didn't the A330 CEO take about a decade to actually sell successfully? I wouldn't give up on this just yet.

That was without a more efficient competitor. The 787 now sits in the A330 space as comfortably as a king.
 
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75driver
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 1:52 am

Wouldn’t it stand to reason that manufacturers will just consolidate and improve on their current lineup/variants? In a post COVId world there doesn’t seem to be much need for new designs. If Boeing ever gets the MAX airborne I’m not sure the market even demands a new design from them. AB seems to be sitting pretty on their current offerings with little future need. Seems the manufacturers are going to be financially challenged by the sheer amount of resale/used aircraft that will likely flood the market and minimize demand for new. I’m not sure where either company goes from this point except consolidation and diversification. Can’t see any immediate plans from either for a new launch. It’s going to take a decade or more for this catastrophe to sort out while theres already more than enough aircraft available or in the pipeline to serve the market for years beyond.
 
ewt340
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:12 am

flyingclrs727 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
I think It's time for Airbus to start thinking about A310, A300 and A330neo replacements.


That's the A321XLR.


I don't think it would be reasnable to replace All those aircraft with A321XLR. At some point, they need to think about replacement. And when the orders dried up, then they have to do something about it.

Currently this market segment is dominated by B787.
 
ewt340
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:13 am

What are the chance that they would re-update A330neo with composite materials instead?
 
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Antaras
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:26 am

ewt340 wrote:
What are the chance that they would re-update A330neo with composite materials instead?

Are you talking about something called "clean-sheet design"?
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:41 am

ewt340 wrote:
What are the chance that they would re-update A330neo with composite materials instead?

They did that and its now the A350 XWB.
 
Alias1024
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 3:45 am

It all depends on how long Airbus is willing to wait it out. The heart of the A330 replacement cycle is still a decade away. COVID may actually be a blessing in disguise for the A330neo as it takes some of the pressure off for the next year or two to capture big sales. Nobody is buying anything for the foreseeable future so the investment community will likely be a little more understanding with the program scraping along until global travel recovers.

Revelation wrote:
A330neo's future really relies on both the COVID recovery and on Airbus's own sense of the product's future. Personally I'm a fan of the product and can see why airlines would buy it, yet I don't know what feedback Airbus is getting from its customer base on future interest. Right now they have one of the US3, zero of the EU3 and zero of the CN3 as customers. They need to be optimistic of capturing at least another two of the big customers to have a future, IMO.


I think there's reason to be at least mildly optimistic with the EU3 within the next few years as travel hopefully rebounds. At IAG, Aer Lingus needs to consider A332 replacement and an A338 or A339 makes a lot of sense for a smallish all Airbus airline. At LH Group, despite the 20 frame 789 order I think there's still an opportunity with A343 replacement at Swiss. I'm guessing the 789s are for Lufthansa and possibly 767 replacement at Austrian. If the neo can get a toe hold at either then larger A333 replacement orders may be in the cards a decade from now with Aer Lingus, Iberia, Lufthansa, and Swiss all operating the type. It seems AF/KL won't be ordering any for the KLM side but politics may drive them to place an order for Air France, perhaps an A332 replacement, rather than expanding the 787 fleet.

As for the CN3, the Chinese government likes to play politics and keep both sides happy with their orders so it's hard to imagine Airbus not getting something from one of the CN3. The rise in tensions between Washington and Beijing only tilts the field a little more in Airbus' favor.
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 3:47 am

Interesting discussion. The issue is economics of scale is needed in either maintenance or new build. It doesn't matter how 25 of a part is made per year (for replacement or for new), but that is what vendors need to stay viable and produce parts at cost. Now, on obsolete designs, they will charge a higher fee and go to one batch every say 15 months (that is how the 717 survives), but someone gets paid for low production.

Right now the A330NEO is at minimum production for items not shared with the A330CEO (that also need replacement). Airbus must fund customers who are willing to accept at a rate of 25 per year (ok, store an airframe or two for a few years is of course plausible, so we can round down a little). The same is true of *any* widebody. There is a reason Boeing was losing money on the 748 and Airbus on the A380. It just isn't possible to produce really low scale at prices customers can pay. Mass production requires volume.

Every doubling of production decreases cost 10% to 13% (13% if automation is fully embraced, 10% just because managing higher production volumes cut costs). Many times management of declining sales aircraft reduce production in the vain hope sales will pick up later. We saw that with the L1011 (which, ironically, had a later sales spike), 767 (wait... I'm eventually going to make my point), 717/MD-80&90, A300, 747, A380, and 757.

Much of my career is PiPs. They are funded as they help sell future aircraft (and upgrades to the in service fleet is sold at a profit). Low rate production doesn't fund PiPs as there isn't a business case for a good return on investment. With PiPs, aircraft improve. For example, Air NewZealand has obligated Boeing to improve the 787-10 before delivery. The same was true of the A330-300 (so many PiPs, I would have to name dozens of airlines at various times), 777-300ER (e.g., EK ordered more only on an efficiency and payload and range improvement), but lack of them, for example, killed the 757 while ironically, the 767 received minor ones late that have helped move freighters. Without PiPs, the 787 will pull ahead.

e.g., the 787 had a PiP to replace older structure with 3D printed parts. I don't know if they actually achieved the planned cost savings, but the reality is a certified product requires money to be spent to engineer and certify new technology to stay competitive:
https://www.engadget.com/2017-04-11-boe ... s-787.html

Note: I'm biased as I consistently see an 80% to 90% cost reduction on assemblies suitable for 3D printing on stuff I work on. (Note: If it is already economical to produce conventionally, we don't look into it. Titanium is so difficult conventionally that you hear so much about 3D printing as it save so many steps, in particular the repeated heat treating titanium requires. It is making it so titanium is cost effective, in some cases, versus aluminum with a weight savings). There will only be more 3D printed parts if the volume is up (no 3D printing shop will help with the R&D for less than 200 orders, even in this downturn that part of the business can still be selective).

I cannot say if the A330NEO will make it through or not. I do know it is on life support. How firm are the Delta orders? I would assume pretty firm, but I could be wrong. AirAsia X must reduce their orders and every other airline that has ordered must at least differ by years.

Lightsaber

ps (late edit):
Unfortunately there is pressure to sell A330NEOs. Too much of current production is being parked (no revenue for Airbus). The problem of selling to marginal customers in good times is that they are far more marginal today.
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tommy1808
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 5:03 am

Opus99 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Airbus hoped to sell 1000 a330neo's but yeah sure goal achieved


That wasn´t Dutchy´s point though. Airbus spend 2 billion on the program, so probably will be ok with not capturing the market they saw, and might even end up with a black zero for the program. However, they gave the 787 a competitor that Boeing had to counter with discounts, which may lead to Boeing not making a single $ on what is shaping up to be the most successful wide body program in terms of quantity. Which at least was a side goal, as it dampens the desire to fund moonshot programs going forward. Also, there are probably few people outside of Airbus that know how many customers came in with an inquiry about the A330neo, and walked out with an A359 order..... or went for an A321neoLR/XLR

But yeah, orders have been underwhelming.

best regards
Thomas

I understand your point completely. But there’s not capturing the market you envisioned maybe 500 orders cool but it’s basically half that when you take our Iran air and air Asia X.


While i see why AirAsiaX is on the very shaky side of things, i see no reason to take out Iran Air. Those deliveries may start next year after all.

Revelation wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Airbus hoped to sell 1000 a330neo's but yeah sure goal achieved

That wasn´t Dutchy´s point though. Airbus spend 2 billion on the program, so probably will be ok with not capturing the market they saw, and might even end up with a black zero for the program. However, they gave the 787 a competitor that Boeing had to counter with discounts, which may lead to Boeing not making a single $ on what is shaping up to be the most successful wide body program in terms of quantity. Which at least was a side goal, as it dampens the desire to fund moonshot programs going forward. Also, there are probably few people outside of Airbus that know how many customers came in with an inquiry about the A330neo, and walked out with an A359 order..... or went for an A321neoLR/XLR

But yeah, orders have been underwhelming.

best regards
Thomas

Based on these comments, it seems like A330neo should be collecting its participation trophy...

I'm not a big fan of the whole idea that a product that doesn't meet one's own goals still has merit because it put pressure on the competition. Sure, but it also put a lot of pressure on you to carry that red ink! And then you need to figure in opportunity cost: what else could you have been doing with that time, talent and money?

Are we going to claim victory for 747-8i for keeping price pressure on A380 even though neither program will never make a cent?


Since Boeing had the 77W to do that just fine and successful, no. Airbus didn´t have a 77W equivalent. However, the similarity is elsewhere, both very well would have had better outcomes if launched earlier. I am also not sure why one would assume the neo Program will end up in the red. It was a really, really cheap program. Given it was 15+ times cheaper to develop, Airbus needs to reclaim a lot less per frame, of a type they already knew how to build....

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Airlinerdude
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:49 am

My contrarian view is that the A330neo has the potential to do well post-covid on the basis of being the cheaper of wide-bodies to purchase, and that the CASM differential between the 339 and the 350/787 will be immaterial for the foreseeable future with lower fuel prices.

As pointed out in the article, a large percentage of the existing order book is at risk of being cancelled. If we start extrapolating the fact that aircraft will be cancelled and orders will be modified across the board, it's very possible that order books will take a hit as airlines start to re-evaluate whether they really need that A350 or 787-9/10, in the next five to ten years. I'm not saying that this will come as a cancellation is going to immediately result in an order for the A330neo, but with a bit of a timing delay, it may sure be possible.

Continuing that train of thought, there are a tremendous number of existing 330ceos and 777s out there that will need replacing in the coming decade. Many have thought that the natural replacement cycle would be a 787/350 future, but again, the attractiveness of the cheaper 330neo may be a compelling alternative.

I wouldn't write-off the 330neo program just yet, but I would be concerned about it further cannibalizing 350 orders.
 
VV
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:28 am

Strato2 wrote:
VV wrote:
That's an interesting and very optimistic point of view.


Funny comment from a guy who thinks 777X will sell 1000.


Yeah, I know.
The 777-9/-8 has "only" about 300 orders before certification.

The issue with A330 neo is the fact it is surrounded by the A350, 787 and relatively young second hand A330 CEO.

You can find A330-300 to lease easily nowadays. The lease rate can be as low as US$ 300,000 per month.
http://www.airfax.aero/jta.htm#A34
Last edited by VV on Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
olle
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:46 am

I have the sad view that everything will come down to how the cashflow of Boeing and Airbus.

If the cashflow allow Boeing to keep the 777X in order to secure a bright future it will survive.

If the cashflow allow Airbus to keep the 330Neo in order to secure a bright future it will survive.

Sounds similar to A380 I am afraid...

In Airbus case there is a A358 that was planned with better number then A330Neo as I remember and perhaps Airbus takes the decision that it is a better bet to go back to original plan with 358.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:49 am

lightsaber wrote:

Note: I'm biased as I consistently see an 80% to 90% cost reduction on assemblies suitable for 3D printing on stuff I work on. (Note: If it is already economical to produce conventionally, we don't look into it. Titanium is so difficult conventionally that you hear so much about 3D printing as it save so many steps, in particular the repeated heat treating titanium requires. It is making it so titanium is cost effective, in some cases, versus aluminum with a weight savings). There will only be more 3D printed parts if the volume is up (no 3D printing shop will help with the R&D for less than 200 orders, even in this downturn that part of the business can still be selective).

I cannot say if the A330NEO will make it through or not. I do know it is on life support. How firm are the Delta orders? I would assume pretty firm, but I could be wrong. AirAsia X must reduce their orders and every other airline that has ordered must at least differ by years.

Lightsaber

ps (late edit):
Unfortunately there is pressure to sell A330NEOs. Too much of current production is being parked (no revenue for Airbus). The problem of selling to marginal customers in good times is that they are far more marginal today.


Besides for cost, 3D printing allows for amazing advancements. For example the GE T901 engine "50% more power, 25% better specific fuel consumption while reducing life cycle costs". Same weight and size, parts count reduced to 1/4 the T700, lots of 55 part prior turning into 1 part kind of changes. It will be interesting to see this develop.

One problem is each airline, like Delta, are probably set to get say 6 per year. Advancing orders not due for a year means storage costs at a time a lot of product is stored, but can't have holes in the production line.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:14 am

I think the A330neo has some sort of future. Potential orders will dry up over the next year or so, but then Boeing is also in the same boat. Whatever happens to the future of flying, there are still hundreds of A330's out there that aren't quite ready for replacement yet but will be over the coming decade, so the rewards are potentially there for the taking if Airbus are prepared to play the long game. That said, 10 years from now you would think there will be a clean sheet design in the works or already flying if engine technology improves.

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
9/11 caused the end of the 757 since it was heavily reliant on US domestic carriers.


If you ask me and seeing how things have panned out over the last 15 years, I would argue that Boeing deciding to discontinue the 757 line or not come up with a suitable replacement opened the door for Airbus to sell hundreds of A321's and upgrade it to what is now a true heir to the 757 for almost every flight scenario you can come up with. I know Boeing came up with the 737-900ER and later the MAX 9 and MAX 10 that goes some way towards meeting the needs of some 757 operators who either need the capacity or range, but the market appears to have spoken. I would also argue the non-launch of the MOM/NMA no doubt played a role in United turning to the A321XLR and AA converting some of its options to the XLR on top of the standard A321neo's already on order.

This should be a cautionary tale to Airbus if they decide to scrap the A330neo line without a suitable replacement.

Alias1024 wrote:
It all depends on how long Airbus is willing to wait it out. The heart of the A330 replacement cycle is still a decade away. COVID may actually be a blessing in disguise for the A330neo as it takes some of the pressure off for the next year or two to capture big sales. Nobody is buying anything for the foreseeable future so the investment community will likely be a little more understanding with the program scraping along until global travel recovers.

Revelation wrote:
At IAG, Aer Lingus needs to consider A332 replacement and an A338 or A339 makes a lot of sense for a smallish all Airbus airline..


Aer Lingus only have about 4 A330-200's nowadays, one of which is leased from QR.

I agree that the A330neo makes sense for Aer Lingus. However, I'm not sure if they're in a hurry to replace their existing A330's just yet, especially given that 7 of the -300's are 10 years old or less and one was only delivered brand new a few months ago. They had A350's on order, but that pre-dates the IAG takeover. They also have A321LR's and XLR's on order, so if demand is weak and they're unable to go ahead with their planned expansion, it wouldn't surprise me if some of the older A330's are phased out and their TATL flying (which pre-COVID was all their medium-haul/long-haul flying) is covered by the A321LR/XLR's and younger A330-300's. At the same time, if market demand is even weaker the A321's could easily be redeployed onto their short-haul routes or work across both like how the first couple of LR's are/were used.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:33 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
A345/346, A380, A400M, A330neo... Airbus, the great capital destruction machine.

That's hardly fair. Sure Airbus hasn't met all that much success with 4holers, but to put a military application plus an aircraft whose ultimate disposition you don't know, doesn't exactly scream "objective assessment."

Besides, are you going to pretend that the 764ER, 753, 772LR, and especially 748i, never happened?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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enzo011
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 10:07 am

VV wrote:
Yeah, I know.
The 777-9/-8 has "only" about 300 orders before certification.

The issue with A330 neo is the fact it is surrounded by the A350, 787 and relatively young second hand A330 CEO.

You can find A330-300 to lease easily nowadays. The lease rate can be as low as US$ 300,000 per month.
http://www.airfax.aero/jta.htm#A34



The 777X is covered from below by the 787 and A350 and it has a relatively young 77W to contend with as well. With airlines predicted to fail left, right and centre and unless all of those that fail or give up leases somehow keep their 77W's, the model will face the same problems that the A330neo will face.

If you are downbeat about the A330neo prospects you should be about the 777X as well, regardless of current sales numbers. That is because the A330neo is delivering right now but the 777X isn't yet. On the other hand if you think the A330neo will survive then the same should stand for the 777X. Just thinking one of the programs faces issues is just blind optimism/fanboyism.
 
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keesje
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 10:46 am

I've seen the end of the A330 been announced many times over the last 20 years.
So I stick to the A330 capabilities, costs and potential customer base. They look ok.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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flee
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:14 am

ewt340 wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
I think It's time for Airbus to start thinking about A310, A300 and A330neo replacements.


That's the A321XLR.

I don't think it would be reasnable to replace All those aircraft with A321XLR. At some point, they need to think about replacement. And when the orders dried up, then they have to do something about it.

Currently this market segment is dominated by B787.

With the travel industry now reset, the A321LR will be able to replace A330Neos on many routes. Most of the remaining demand will probably be fulfilled by the A359. If there is any gap in the market, Airbus can now consider a lighter, optimised A358. This will probably work very well on routes up to around 5,500 nm.
 
9Patch
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:28 pm

smartplane wrote:
As mentioned earlier, the A330NEO is constrained from below by used 787's, and especially the CEO. The 787 electronic admin features are considered detrimental in the used market, whereas the CEO is simple.

Please explain this.
Why are the 787 electronic admin features are considered detrimental in the used market?
Does this apply to the new market as well?
 
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Polot
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:35 pm

9Patch wrote:
smartplane wrote:
As mentioned earlier, the A330NEO is constrained from below by used 787's, and especially the CEO. The 787 electronic admin features are considered detrimental in the used market, whereas the CEO is simple.

Please explain this.
Why are the 787 electronic admin features are considered detrimental in the used market?
Does this apply to the new market as well?

The systems are much more complex for smaller fringe carriers even if they save maintenance costs in the long run.

It’s something that eventually they are going to have to deal with though- all brand new from the ground up aircraft (eg A350, A220, etc) are moving in that direction.
 
tommy1808
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:53 pm

Polot wrote:
9Patch wrote:
smartplane wrote:
As mentioned earlier, the A330NEO is constrained from below by used 787's, and especially the CEO. The 787 electronic admin features are considered detrimental in the used market, whereas the CEO is simple.

Please explain this.
Why are the 787 electronic admin features are considered detrimental in the used market?
Does this apply to the new market as well?

The systems are much more complex for smaller fringe carriers even if they save maintenance costs in the long run. .


the invisible hand would lead to the expectation that, if this hold true, a business will emerge to turn that complexity into a viable source of profits by realizing scale and keeping some of those maintenance savings as pay.

Also, the predictive maintenance should be especially beneficial to small carriers with less natural slag in their aircraft utilization and fewer stations with tech support.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
VV
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:02 pm

enzo011 wrote:
...
If you are downbeat about the A330neo prospects you should be about the 777X as well, regardless of current sales numbers. That is because the A330neo is delivering right now but the 777X isn't yet. On the other hand if you think the A330neo will survive then the same should stand for the 777X. Just thinking one of the programs faces issues is just blind optimism/fanboyism.


Well, the two cases a re significantly different, but it does not change the issue with the A330neo having to fight against relatively young second hand A330 CEO and A350.
That's the reason why I am not very optimistic about the A330neo's prospect.
 
VV
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:07 pm

flee wrote:
...
With the travel industry now reset, the A321LR will be able to replace A330Neos on many routes. Most of the remaining demand will probably be fulfilled by the A359.
...


This is a very interesting view.
I guess the A321XLR is more appropriate than A321LR in flee's comment.
 
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Revelation
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:27 pm

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
I know I'm quoting these off topic..... but man... I wish Boeing had just stayed the Y1, Y2, Y3 coarse..... They let Y2 foul-ups (787) scare them silly.....

Opportunity costs.

I wouldn't say they were scared, I would say it was the brutal hangover that followed the drug-like rush of the 787 that had taken them off course. And of course being led by Wall Street mavens rather than technologists. I won't harp on the McD-D stuff but man the quotes we have from Harry Stonecipher are brutal. He set out to make Boeing a business rather than an engineering firm and the results speak for themselves.

ewt340 wrote:
What are the chance that they would re-update A330neo with composite materials instead?

What problem would that solve?

Boeing74741R wrote:
If you ask me and seeing how things have panned out over the last 15 years, I would argue that Boeing deciding to discontinue the 757 line or not come up with a suitable replacement opened the door for Airbus to sell hundreds of A321's and upgrade it to what is now a true heir to the 757 for almost every flight scenario you can come up with. I know Boeing came up with the 737-900ER and later the MAX 9 and MAX 10 that goes some way towards meeting the needs of some 757 operators who either need the capacity or range, but the market appears to have spoken. I would also argue the non-launch of the MOM/NMA no doubt played a role in United turning to the A321XLR and AA converting some of its options to the XLR on top of the standard A321neo's already on order.

The problem was that fifteen years ago Boeing had saturated the market for aircraft of 757's size. They had made a thousand of them, the market wanted no more. Boeing had various plans to replace 737 throughout the 00s and early 10s that presumably would have given them a base to grow on, but as above the Boeing board was quite risk adverse after the absolute debacle of the 787 followed by the overruns of the 747-8. Thus instead of Y1 and Y3 we ended up with MAX and 77X.

VV wrote:
flee wrote:
...
With the travel industry now reset, the A321LR will be able to replace A330Neos on many routes. Most of the remaining demand will probably be fulfilled by the A359.
...

This is a very interesting view.
I guess the A321XLR is more appropriate than A321LR in flee's comment.

Yes, and our many A322 proposals are more appropriate than investing more in A330, IMO. Yet Airbus's problem isn't that they don't have products the market wants. The problem is that the market has just been totally reset. Probably best to keep the engineer's pencils moving yet not commit to any new direction till we see what the post-covid world looks like.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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SEPilot
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:58 pm

The A330NEO was launched when Boeing was deeply entangled in the 787 problems. They had a huge backlog, we’re having difficulty getting planes out the door and costs were out of control. And no customer could get one quickly if needed. Airbus saw this as an opportunity; produce a quick and dirty re-engine of the A330 and steal a bunch of orders that would have otherwise gone to the 787. This strategy relied on two things. First, that Boeing would not quickly solve their production problems. And second, that Boeing would not be able to slash their costs so as to be able to sell the 787 for what they could sell the A330NEO. But they lost out on both; Boeing got their production problems solved long before the A330NEO got certified, and at the same time slashed production costs to where they can match or beat Airbus’s prices. And at that point the A330NEO really has no advantage in any metric over the 787. The matchup is not as bad as the one between the 77W and the A346, but it is the same scenario at a smaller scale. With both manufacturers struggling over the COVID situation, the A330NEO is certainly the most vulnerable program of either manufacturer, now that the 747 has been axed. It almost certainly would have soldiered on had COVID not hit, but I would be surprised if it survives now. I expect Airbus to tell customers to take them as scheduled or lose them, and to cancel the program.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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Devilfish
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 3:12 pm

Yet...I may be imagining things...though am pretty sure I read something alluding to a non clean-sheet 767-class plane with same generation engines as the 787. But I can't find it now...NDA restrictions at play? Might it be 764MAX with GEnx2Bs :?:
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
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lightsaber
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 3:26 pm

SEPilot wrote:
Boeing got their production problems solved long before the A330NEO got certified, and at the same time slashed production costs to where they can match or beat Airbus’s prices.

That is crucial. The 787 ironed out problems and the added cost to produce each airframe allowed incredible economics of scale (eventually).

There is now a surplus of widebody aircraft and Boeing has more room on pricing.

Unfortunately, this debate must wait for a market recovery.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
inkjet7
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 3:28 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
Now they have a handfull of 787s but there are still 15? 332 to replace at one point and AF was launch customer to the 77W so some are getting older. Over time the 350s will replace more 77Ws and certain routes might get reduced in capacity. It could be more 787s but there is a pilot pool for 330 family aircrafts aswell. So the option exists and I think AF will order a few ~20 in the next 3 years.


Fleet simplification for both KL and AF would be relatively easy by swapping all ten AF 787-9's for KL's 13 A330's (5 -300's). We know KL preferred 787-10's but that was before Covid-19.
 
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Revelation
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 3:48 pm

enzo011 wrote:
We know the 787 was sold to HA at prices the A330neo was not prepared to match, which in hindsight with the lower production rate is going to mean even less cash for Boeing from this sale.

smartplane wrote:
The second problem for the NEO is the A350. NEO features and pricing have been constrained to make space (protect - Airbus would say nurture) the A350. If NEO low hanging and already in existence enhancements were rolled out, and A350 style margins approved, the A330 would likely outsell it's bigger brother.

Connecting the dots, one could reach the conclusion that A330neo lost HA's order not because Airbus wasn't willing to undercut 789, but because they weren't willing to undercut A350.

The HA 10+10 order probably won't change the future of the program, but I can imagine some inside Airbus wish they were more aggressive.

SEPilot wrote:
The A330NEO was launched when Boeing was deeply entangled in the 787 problems. They had a huge backlog, we’re having difficulty getting planes out the door and costs were out of control. And no customer could get one quickly if needed. Airbus saw this as an opportunity; produce a quick and dirty re-engine of the A330 and steal a bunch of orders that would have otherwise gone to the 787. This strategy relied on two things. First, that Boeing would not quickly solve their production problems. And second, that Boeing would not be able to slash their costs so as to be able to sell the 787 for what they could sell the A330NEO. But they lost out on both; Boeing got their production problems solved long before the A330NEO got certified, and at the same time slashed production costs to where they can match or beat Airbus’s prices. And at that point the A330NEO really has no advantage in any metric over the 787. The matchup is not as bad as the one between the 77W and the A346, but it is the same scenario at a smaller scale. With both manufacturers struggling over the COVID situation, the A330NEO is certainly the most vulnerable program of either manufacturer, now that the 747 has been axed. It almost certainly would have soldiered on had COVID not hit, but I would be surprised if it survives now. I expect Airbus to tell customers to take them as scheduled or lose them, and to cancel the program.

Our old A330neo threads were very interesting. It seemed to take Airbus a long time to decide what to do. We had senior members here saying they'd go with the RR Advance or perhaps even wait for RR UltraFan since a TXWB-based design would add weight and not improve SFC enough to justify the NRE. It's interesting to put it in the context of comments above. One could say Airbus probably wouldn't want an A330neo with better engine tech than the A330, so that probably was never an option. As it was, it took RR a long time to develop the T7000 and get it ready for service. Most if not all of this happened before the T1000 problems were known. It makes one wonder if in hindsight RR simply took on more than it could handle. Also in the same time frame an A380neo was being discussed. Can you imagine if RR was on the hook for that as well? That might have been the straw that broke the camel's back. Aviation is a fascinating industry...

Overall I think Airbus will not wind down A330neo as you suggest. I think Airbus would ask for and receive support if it ever came to that point. I think the governments will not want to see more job loss. I think there is a good enough case to make for the future of the A330neo to get such funding.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
Sokes
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 3:59 pm

ewt340 wrote:
What are the chance that they would re-update A330neo with composite materials instead?

The engine makes the plane.
I assume Airbus may have been happier with an engine with less thrust, optimal for the -800 and just strong enough for a regional -900 or even smaller.
But such an engine doesn't exist. They had to do with an engine that is better for nine abreast.
I thought the Neo is just a temporary solution till a new and smaller engine is developed.

So yes, a -200 and a shrink of it with a 52 m carbon wing and 180-200 t MTOW would make sense.

But what SEPilot writes makes sense.
Also Revelation's remark about not selling without profit just to spoil the competitor's price makes sense.
If B787 prices increase, A350 prices will also increase.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
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crimsonchin
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 4:15 pm

Interesting to note that "keeping the competition honest" is no longer seen a positive, as I remember the allegedly low development cost of the 747-8i in relation to the A380 was used as a plus for the -8i as a reason why it's not a failure. However, the A330neo which has sold more than the -8i and probably cost slightly less to develop seems not to be extended the same benefit.
 
TC957
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 4:31 pm

Antaras wrote:
VV wrote:
Weatherwatcher1 wrote:

COVID probably accelerated the problem. Airbus had been marketing the A330neo as a cheaper widebody to airlines less financially stable. It’s leasing rates were already pretty low.

viewtopic.php?t=1374235#p19827945


It is not necessarily a good thing to bet on airlines that are financially less stable.

Unfortunately that was what Airbus has chosen: marketing the A330neo as a "cheap and affordable" widebodies for LCCs and financially-weak carriers, leaving the fact that most of the "wealthy" carriers go with the "luxury" 787.

A330neo customer list [except lessors]:
Delta
AirAsia X
TAP
Garuda Ind
Arkia
Iran Air (yeeted)
Aircalin
Air Senegal
Kuwait Airw'
MEA
Uganda Airl'
Virgin Atl'
Lion Air
Cebu Pacific

While with the 787: Scoot and Norwegian are the only LCCs, other are all legacy carriers.

Bad marketing from the position of Airbus. That's when you created a iPhone 11 Pro Max and you were targeting on customers who could only afford for a Samsung Galaxy A and letting the Galaxy S/Note grab all of your customers :(

JetStar and TUI aren't legacy carriers and have 787's.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 5:14 pm

Few airliners are doing well in the COVID environment. The A330 neo has low sunk costs, which means it is financially in a better position at this time than a number of prior aircraft programs. It will remain an attractive product to airlines when the market recovers. Is it really so costly for Airbus to keep the A330 line open, I don't think so. It is a multi role platform that is still useful. For freight, defense, pax.

I disagree that it is doomed. Airbus (like BMW) can benefit from having higher and lower priced offerings in the market. Even if (like BMW) the cost of production is quite similar between the low model and the high model.
 
VV
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:44 pm

This discussion interests me a lot, so I plotted A330 production from 2000 until July 2020 by year.

It is quite interesting because there will be a huge wave of A330 CEO coming out of the first term of lease or offered as second hand A330.

With the current depressed lease rate and low fuel price, second lease or second hand A330 CEO is a very attractive option.
I am not sure if A330neo will survive the assault of A330 CEO especially with the presence of A350-900 and 787.

I believe the market value of A330neo ten years from now is uncertain.
If I were an airline or lessor, I would ask for value retention guarantee ( also called residual value guarantee).

Image
 
ewt340
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:01 pm

To think about it. A330neo suffer from the same problem that B777X currently have.

Many A330-200 and A330-300 is actually extremely young. There are 750 A330-200 and A330-300 devliered after 2010. That's almost 50% of the A330 deliveries. This is similar to Majority of B777-300ER.

Image

I guess their target should be airlines who wants to downgrade their old B747 and B777 to smaller A330-900neo and older A330 replacement.
 
smartplane
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:36 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Every doubling of production decreases cost 10% to 13% (13% if automation is fully embraced, 10% just because managing higher production volumes cut costs). Many times management of declining sales aircraft reduce production in the vain hope sales will pick up later. We saw that with the L1011 (which, ironically, had a later sales spike), 767 (wait... I'm eventually going to make my point), 717/MD-80&90, A300, 747, A380, and 757.

And a reduction in production has the inverse effect, plus more.

Boeing has invested far more heavily in volume production compared to Airbus, which if as successful as claimed, translated to lower unit costs of production at higher volumes. Both OEM's are producing below their respective production sweet spots, but Airbus must now be far closer than Boeing.

Boeing have a further problem with component contractors. Great contracts for Boeing at static production levels. Even better when production is rising, with prescribed volume pricing discounts. Great flexibility for Boeing if the supplier is considered to be making too much profit, with an exit clause to bring inhouse, with prescribed compensation. Bad for Boeing, the exit clause and compensation can also be invoked by the supplier, as they discovered with the 748 and MAX.

Boeing conundrum. Inflate component orders and stockpile - buys time, and allows Boeing to move inhouse or find a new supplier. Or risk triggering an exit. Or re-negotiate the contract.
 
Jetport
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:00 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A shame really, but the A330NEO was a stop-gap measure anyway. Airbus probably made some money out of the production run of around 175-200 and kept the prices of the Boeing 787 "honest'. Goal achieved.


I think the A330neo is a lot better than most think. Covid is not helping, but most airframes, not just the A330neo, are effected.

I wouldn't be surprised if EK take 40 A330neos seeing as the 779 is now delayed until 2022, and EK seems to be assessing their fleet away from 777 & A380s.


Why wouldn't EK just order 787's if they want aircraft the size of the A330neo? The 787 is better in every way, the exact same size and can be had for essentially the same price. Unless the Consortium is willing to sell them at huge losses (Delta Orders?), no airline in their right mind would choose an A330neo over a 787 now that there is no availability issue with the 787.

The 777X has no direct competitor, the A330neo has a superior direct competitor.
 
djpearman
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:29 pm

Jetport wrote:
Why wouldn't EK just order 787's if they want aircraft the size of the A330neo? The 787 is better in every way, the exact same size and can be had for essentially the same price. Unless the Consortium is willing to sell them at huge losses (Delta Orders?), no airline in their right mind would choose an A330neo over a 787 now that there is no availability issue with the 787.

The 777X has no direct competitor, the A330neo has a superior direct competitor.


There is at least one way that the A330 is superior to the 787 and that is seating arrangement. In my opinion, 2-4-2 beats 3-3-3 in terms of passenger comfort every day (only ever at most 1 person between you and an aisle).

Also, I remember seeing some posts here stating that while the 787 is arguably the better aircraft in terms of operating costs (at the cost of passenger comfort), once capital costs are factored in, the A330neo beats the 787 on short and medium haul routes.

As for the price, Boeing recently put out a warning that they may never make back their investment in the 787 program. So, selling 787s at rock bottom prices doesn't seem to have paid off.

Also, some airlines may not be too keen on why 787s are being offered at the prices they are: https://www.businessinsider.de/international/boeing-removed-lightning-strike-safety-feature-787-dreamliner-faa-report-2019-12/?r=US&IR=T
 
Opus99
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:36 pm

djpearman wrote:
Jetport wrote:
Why wouldn't EK just order 787's if they want aircraft the size of the A330neo? The 787 is better in every way, the exact same size and can be had for essentially the same price. Unless the Consortium is willing to sell them at huge losses (Delta Orders?), no airline in their right mind would choose an A330neo over a 787 now that there is no availability issue with the 787.

The 777X has no direct competitor, the A330neo has a superior direct competitor.


There is at least one way that the A330 is superior to the 787 and that is seating arrangement. In my opinion, 2-4-2 beats 3-3-3 in terms of passenger comfort every day (only ever at most 1 person between you and an aisle).

Also, I remember seeing some posts here stating that while the 787 is arguably the better aircraft in terms of operating costs (at the cost of passenger comfort), once capital costs are factored in, the A330neo beats the 787 on short and medium haul routes.

As for the price, Boeing recently put out a warning that they may never make back their investment in the 787 program. So, selling 787s at rock bottom prices doesn't seem to have paid off.

Also, some airlines may not be too keen on why 787s are being offered at the prices they are: https://www.businessinsider.de/international/boeing-removed-lightning-strike-safety-feature-787-dreamliner-faa-report-2019-12/?r=US&IR=T


It’s obvious airlines don’t believe in anything less than a 9 abreast in a wide body aircraft.
 
Strato2
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:46 pm

VV wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
...
If you are downbeat about the A330neo prospects you should be about the 777X as well, regardless of current sales numbers. That is because the A330neo is delivering right now but the 777X isn't yet. On the other hand if you think the A330neo will survive then the same should stand for the 777X. Just thinking one of the programs faces issues is just blind optimism/fanboyism.


Well, the two cases a re significantly different, but it does not change the issue with the A330neo having to fight against relatively young second hand A330 CEO and A350.
That's the reason why I am not very optimistic about the A330neo's prospect.


Yeah they are significantly different. The 777X is a VLA and we have seen how the market is for VLA's is. The A330neo OTOH is right at the sweetspot of the market. The 777X will have to fight against relatively young second hand 777W and the A350 and in some cases 787-10.
 
Strato2
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:48 pm

VV wrote:
You can find A330-300 to lease easily nowadays. The lease rate can be as low as US$ 300,000 per month.
http://www.airfax.aero/jta.htm#A34


What's the lease rate of 777-300ER?
 
Opus99
Posts: 1176
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 9:04 pm

Strato2 wrote:
VV wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
...
If you are downbeat about the A330neo prospects you should be about the 777X as well, regardless of current sales numbers. That is because the A330neo is delivering right now but the 777X isn't yet. On the other hand if you think the A330neo will survive then the same should stand for the 777X. Just thinking one of the programs faces issues is just blind optimism/fanboyism.


Well, the two cases a re significantly different, but it does not change the issue with the A330neo having to fight against relatively young second hand A330 CEO and A350.
That's the reason why I am not very optimistic about the A330neo's prospect.


Yeah they are significantly different. The 777X is a VLA and we have seen how the market is for VLA's is. The A330neo OTOH is right at the sweetspot of the market. The 777X will have to fight against relatively young second hand 777W and the A350 and in some cases 787-10.

Isn’t it telling though that the A330 is the supposed sweet spot and it’s sales are still dire
 
smartplane
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 9:10 pm

A prospective A330 customer (and operator of other Airbus models), has raised with ICAO and RR, as part of CORSIA and COVID response, the ability to negotiate and operate infinitely variable MTOW flights (to or below maximum), on a flight by flight basis.

RR are already there, offering a fixed, plus almost infinitely variable hours / thrust formula fees component for engines and maintenance, to encourage operators to use RR powered aircraft in low use / low MTOW situations, where a choice exists. Only possible on NEO, A350, A380 and late model CEO's.
 
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Antaras
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Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

Tue Aug 18, 2020 9:13 pm

TC957 wrote:
Jetstar and TUI aren't legacy carriers and have 787's.

Oops, my bad. Sorry :D
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:

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