Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
slimshady
Topic Author
Posts: 89
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2007 11:33 pm

Rumour: De Havilland stopping work?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:55 pm

I heard an unsubstantiated rumor that De Havilland is stopping the Q400 line? Can any one confirm? I heard their backlog is very weak. Is there anyone close to the program who can confirm?
Last edited by SQ22 on Mon Aug 17, 2020 5:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Title updated
 
IWMBH
Posts: 628
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:01 pm

Re: Rumour: De Havilland stopping work?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 6:24 pm

A definitive stop seems unlikely to me, but maybe a temporary stop because of COVID? Any source of this rumor?
 
raylee67
Posts: 921
Joined: Mon Oct 24, 2011 11:06 pm

Re: Rumour: De Havilland stopping work?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 6:58 pm

Q400's pipeline has been weak for many years already. And no airline would be rushing to order Q400s for a long period of time. This is the time when the weaker businesses in each industry or market place are wiped, as we see with Virgin Australia, all those department stores in US and Hertz, etc. The Q400 line is no different.

Do they own any land in their Downsview plant? That piece of land, in the middle of the urban area close to major highways and subway station, worth many times more than the total worth of possible Q400 sales in future. I can see apartment blocks built in that piece of land and make DHC rich beyond its wildest dream, if it actually owns any of that land...
319/20/21 332/33 342/43/45 359/51 388 707 717 732/36/3G/38/39 74R/42/43/44/4E/48 757 762/63 772/7L/73/7W 788/89 D10 M80 135/40/45 175/90 DH1/4 CRJ/R7 L10
AY LH OU SR BA FI LX
AA DL UA NW AC CP WS FL NK PD
CI NH SQ KA CX JL BR OZ TG KE CA CZ NZ JQ RS
 
DIJKKIJK
Posts: 1865
Joined: Sun Jul 27, 2003 11:03 pm

Re: Rumour: De Havilland stopping work?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:27 pm

slimshady wrote:
I heard an unsubstantiated rumor that De Havilland is stopping the Q400 line? Can any one confirm? I heard their backlog is very weak. Is there anyone close to the program who can confirm?


I really hope not. It will be sad to see such an iconic name bite the dust. De Havilland have been such an important part of aviation history.
Never argue with idiots. They will bring you down to their level, and beat you with experience.
 
User avatar
northstardc4m
Posts: 3400
Joined: Fri Apr 28, 2000 11:23 am

Re: Rumour: De Havilland stopping work?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:53 pm

raylee67 wrote:
Q400's pipeline has been weak for many years already. And no airline would be rushing to order Q400s for a long period of time. This is the time when the weaker businesses in each industry or market place are wiped, as we see with Virgin Australia, all those department stores in US and Hertz, etc. The Q400 line is no different.

Do they own any land in their Downsview plant? That piece of land, in the middle of the urban area close to major highways and subway station, worth many times more than the total worth of possible Q400 sales in future. I can see apartment blocks built in that piece of land and make DHC rich beyond its wildest dream, if it actually owns any of that land...


The Downsview lands are long decided, all BBD work was already supposed to move to a new facility at YYZ which is now being built (well land being prepared to build on)... Downsview all reverts to the City of Toronto I believe, once BBD and DHC vacate. However post BBD sell off the question of if DHC was going to move the Q400 line to YYZ or somewhere else has never been very clear?
Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.
 
ExMilitaryEng
Posts: 636
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 7:12 pm

Re: Rumour: De Havilland stopping work?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:05 pm

northstardc4m wrote:
The Downsview lands are long decided, all BBD work was already supposed to move to a new facility at YYZ which is now being built (well land being prepared to build on)... Downsview all reverts to the City of Toronto I believe, once BBD and DHC vacate. However post BBD sell off the question of if DHC was going to move the Q400 line to YYZ or somewhere else has never been very clear?
Exactly!

BBD sold the land already and they will be moving the Global FAL to YYZ.

The Q400 FAL will have to move too, and that will require LOTS of money. BBD was smart to sell the program, and luckily before covid...

Anyways DHC's new owner (Longview Capital, based in Toronto) has better chances to obtain $ from Ontario to enable the move.
 
9252fly
Posts: 1036
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:19 am

Re: Rumour: De Havilland stopping work?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:18 pm

I foresee demand for new built Q400 aircraft being suppressed for the foreseeable near term. With so many used Q400 available, many from the failure of BE and their fleet of 54, airlines are in the drivers seat for any future acquisitions or requirements.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5008
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: Rumour: De Havilland stopping work?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:41 pm

9252fly wrote:
I foresee demand for new built Q400 aircraft being suppressed for the foreseeable near term. With so many used Q400 available, many from the failure of BE and their fleet of 54, airlines are in the drivers seat for any future acquisitions or requirements.

Plus there will be a lot of used RJs available. Some
Carriers may be able to jump to jets during this
 
MEA-707
Posts: 3786
Joined: Mon Nov 15, 1999 4:51 am

Re: Rumour: De Havilland stopping work?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:51 pm

I like the Q400 a lot but I really see the end nearing, actually I am surprised they didn't announce it yet.
Small orderbook. The only big order, SpiceJet, seems very problematic, completed aircraft haven't been delivered for a year so even before Covid they didn't seem to be able to finance them.
Then, apart from FlyBe, also many of the top 10 airlines; LGW-Eurowings, Austrian, Air Baltic, Alaska Horizon either stopped flying them or want to get rid of them. So anyone who wants a few Q400 can get second hands for much less.
I can see them complete the hard orders; a few for Ethiopian, Securité Civile and then call it a day.
nobody has ever died from hard work, but why take the risk?
 
User avatar
NameOmitted
Posts: 907
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:59 pm

Re: Rumour: De Havilland stopping work?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:46 pm

Since the line needs to close anyway for the move, how much more expensive world it be to mothball the equipment and restart in a few years over moving the line now?
 
rampbro
Posts: 546
Joined: Wed Nov 28, 2012 4:00 am

Re: Rumour: De Havilland stopping work?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:23 pm

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
Anyways DHC's new owner (Longview Capital, based in Toronto) has better chances to obtain $ from Ontario to enable the move.


I thought they were based in YYC?
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8287
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Rumour: De Havilland stopping work?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:25 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
Since the line needs to close anyway for the move, how much more expensive world it be to mothball the equipment and restart in a few years over moving the line now?


And that begs the question: Does the cost of mothballing reasonably exceed the net present value of forecasted earnings? If not, just shut it down now.
 
ExMilitaryEng
Posts: 636
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 7:12 pm

Re: Rumour: De Havilland stopping work?

Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:49 am

rampbro wrote:
ExMilitaryEng wrote:
Anyways DHC's new owner (Longview Capital, based in Toronto) has better chances to obtain $ from Ontario to enable the move.


I thought they were based in YYC?
Actually, Longview Aviation Capital is based in Victoria, BC. (Not in TO as I mentionned...).

Longview is owned by Sherry Brydson, granddaughter of deceased newspaper magnate Roy Thomson and cousin of David Thomson.
 
A380MSN004
Posts: 738
Joined: Sat Jun 03, 2017 9:07 am

Re: Rumour: De Havilland stopping work?

Tue Aug 18, 2020 5:29 am

Before COVID they announced approx new 30 orders during Dubai Air Show (obvisously postponed now) Does anyone here have an exact backlog of the DHC 8 - 400 Backlog ?
 
Sokes
Posts: 1877
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Rumour: De Havilland stopping work?

Tue Aug 18, 2020 4:28 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
Since the line needs to close anyway for the move, how much more expensive world it be to mothball the equipment and restart in a few years over moving the line now?

What about labour?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
vfw614
Posts: 3852
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2001 12:34 am

Re: Rumour: De Havilland stopping work?

Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:49 pm

I have not really followed the development of the Q400 over the years, but do 2020-built Q400s offer significant improvements over 10 or 15 year old frames other than the obvious lower maintenance costs? With the BE, BT and OS fleets (coming) on the market, there is a massive supply of probably relatively cheap used airframes.
 
User avatar
northstardc4m
Posts: 3400
Joined: Fri Apr 28, 2000 11:23 am

Re: Rumour: De Havilland stopping work?

Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:29 pm

vfw614 wrote:
I have not really followed the development of the Q400 over the years, but do 2020-built Q400s offer significant improvements over 10 or 15 year old frames other than the obvious lower maintenance costs? With the BE, BT and OS fleets (coming) on the market, there is a massive supply of probably relatively cheap used airframes.


Well all current production should be to NextGen standards... which offered some improvements in maintenance and fuel costs over the original Q400. As well as the 90 seat option.

But really is there enough of an improvement to woo airlines to new build over used with the prices depressed so far... probably not very many if any.
Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.
 
Philippine747
Posts: 306
Joined: Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:54 am

Re: Rumour: De Havilland stopping work?

Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:34 am

vfw614 wrote:
I have not really followed the development of the Q400 over the years, but do 2020-built Q400s offer significant improvements over 10 or 15 year old frames other than the obvious lower maintenance costs? With the BE, BT and OS fleets (coming) on the market, there is a massive supply of probably relatively cheap used airframes.


NextGen models have better interior fittings compared to the classic Q400s... As for the OS birds, I think they'd go directly to the scrapyard since they are some of the really early builds.
A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 AT75 AT76 B732 B733 B738 B744 B752(M) B763 B772 B77W DHC7 DH8C DH8D D328 MA60

2P 5J 6K CX DG EK GA KE MI PR VN OS QR A3 OK TG RA U4 JL GK UB K7 WE BR
 
bennett123
Posts: 9817
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Rumour: De Havilland stopping work?

Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:04 am

https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/ ... own/e24546

Not sure where OE-LGF is headed,

However, taking 9H-, together with a DHC8, I suspect Medavia.

Seen EXT 06/07/2020, being worked on.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20325
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Rumour: De Havilland stopping work?

Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:57 am

Sokes wrote:
NameOmitted wrote:
Since the line needs to close anyway for the move, how much more expensive world it be to mothball the equipment and restart in a few years over moving the line now?

What about labour?

There will be skills lost. People without pay go their own way. To retirement or another Industry. Those that sit around waiting generally aren't the ones with tough to acquire skills (of course exceptions, but generally those with the drive to acquire skills move on).

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.

Who is online

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos