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User avatar
spinotter
Posts: 797
Joined: Wed May 27, 2015 1:37 am

Re: OAG Changes 8/18/2020:FALL FALLING;AA/AS/DL Cuts;AC Drops SNAYVR;UA Adds LGA-Florida,SAL-IAD/LAX,DENCYS,IADPQI,IAHTL

Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:48 pm

tphuang wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
evank516 wrote:

It's a good bet in the winter time, but if the travel advisories are still up by then (and let's face it they most likely will be), then there goes any demand to Florida because everyone who isn't going down there to snow bird will have to quarantine when they get home.

Us is betting real cash that most of the restrictions and quarantines go away after Election Day....


The quarantines and restrictions are in place in NY/NJ/CT because we got COVID under control after the initial terrible outbreak and people don't want to get a second wave here. This politicization of public health actions taken to protect New Yorkers is really sickening.

There is a publicly known criteria on how a state is determined to require quarantine and the list is updated based on that criteria. Get your fact straight.


Agreed 100%. What in the universe is meant by "Us is betting real cash...", anyway. Who is Us and what cash? The pandemic-gone-after-election meme is idiotic and harmful, and the moderators should step in here.
 
User avatar
SteveXC500
Posts: 596
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 4:38 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/18/2020:FALL FALLING;AA/AS/DL Cuts;AC Drops SNAYVR;UA Adds LGA-Florida,SAL-IAD/LAX,DENCYS,IADPQI,IAHTL

Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:17 pm

[threeid][/threeid]
wedgetail737 wrote:
A333MSPtoAMS wrote:
SteveXC500 wrote:
EI DUB-MSP SEP 0.7>0.2[0]

I thought it was completely canceled?


I thought this also.


Airlines execs do change their minds periodically.


At this time, nothing appears on their website to book within September.
 
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enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10282
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/18/2020:FALL FALLING;AA/AS/DL Cuts;AC Drops SNAYVR;UA Adds LGA-Florida,SAL-IAD/LAX,DENCYS,IADPQI,IAHTL

Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:18 pm

spinotter wrote:
tphuang wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
Us is betting real cash that most of the restrictions and quarantines go away after Election Day....


The quarantines and restrictions are in place in NY/NJ/CT because we got COVID under control after the initial terrible outbreak and people don't want to get a second wave here. This politicization of public health actions taken to protect New Yorkers is really sickening.

There is a publicly known criteria on how a state is determined to require quarantine and the list is updated based on that criteria. Get your fact straight.


Agreed 100%. What in the universe is meant by "Us is betting real cash...", anyway. Who is Us and what cash? The pandemic-gone-after-election meme is idiotic and harmful, and the moderators should step in here.

I didn't take spinotter's comment as political in terms of "picking sides", more that post-election the situation is likely de-politicized. That's probably true regardless of who wins...hopefully. I also assume he meant "UA" not "Us". UA added a bunch of routes pt2pt to Florida from LGA and other places. Certainly those flights would do better if the pandemic abated or public perception of the pandemic changed for the positive. That's how I took the comments. Doesn't seem that controversial.
 
Coalways
Posts: 167
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2008 5:39 am

Re: OAG Changes 8/18/2020:FALL FALLING;AA/DL Cuts;AC Drops SNAYVR;UA Adds LGA-Florida,SAL-IAD/LAX,DENCYS,IADPQI,IAHTLH

Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:25 pm

flight152 wrote:
Judge1310 wrote:
ScottB wrote:



Heck, they are adding BOS-Florida, too. That's even more crazy than LGA-Florida. CO used to run a couple of LGA-FLL back in the day with slots they needed to keep using (I'd presume left over from the days of when they operated LGA-DEN) and UA ran LGA-MIA to feed the hub they acquired from PA. I don't think CO or UA ever operated BOS-Florida non-stop.


I'm not sure why so many folks here are surprised at BOS and LGA additions -- I venture to guess that maybe it's because most folks either didn't know or forgot that UA maintains a crew base out there in BOS (LGA is a co-terminal base with EWR). Thus, it's relatively easy to deploy readily available aircraft (loads of narrowbodies) with local crews to high demand markets when necessary.

The aircraft (and it's concombinant costs) and crews are still being paid for even whilst sitting around -- might as well deploy them and earn a little extra in the meantime. :)

The BOS base is strictly FA’s, not pilots.

UA also have flight attendant bases in MCO, TPA & FLL
 
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klm617
Posts: 5109
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/18/2020:FALL FALLING;AA/DL Cuts;AC Drops SNAYVR;UA Adds LGA-Florida,SAL-IAD/LAX,DENCYS,IADPQI,IAHTLH

Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:32 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
enilria wrote:

avi8 wrote:
Interesting to see UA beefing up service to SAL, GUA and SJO from IAD, LAX, IAH and EWR. I don’t think IAD has ever been daily and they only operated LAX from SAL for a brief period a few years ago.

I took this as SAL is one of the few places Americans can go...and perhaps they also gave UA money. Anybody think otherwise?


Well, there seems to be a very strong correlation between Central American community size and growth and UA hubs. Since O&D to Central America is heavily tied to demographics, this is relevant.

Below is growth by metro area from 2013-2018:

Guatemala:
Los Angeles: 22,977
Atlanta: 17,882
Houston: 13,847
Washington DC: 12,109
Miami/Fort Lauderdale: 9,760
San Francisco: 9,157
Phoenix: 8,411
Boston: 8,104
Dallas/Fort Worth: 6,149
San Jose: 5,775
Las Vegas: 5,225

Honduras:
Houston: 37,905
Washington DC: 25,078
Miami/Fort Lauderdale: 18,069
Dallas/Fort Worth: 15,944
New Orleans: 7,742
Tampa: 6,634
New York: 6,393

El Salvador:
Houston: 46,089
Los Angeles: 45,610
Washington DC: 35,669
New York: 23,985
Dallas/Fort Worth: 21,802
Atlanta: 10,190
Boston: 10,112
Miami/Fort Lauderdale: 7,401
Baltimore: 7,089
Philadelphia: 6,677
Las Vegas: 5,883
Seattle/Tacoma: 5,637


That data at best is 2 years old.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6193
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/18/2020:FALL FALLING;AA/DL Cuts;AC Drops SNAYVR;UA Adds LGA-Florida,SAL-IAD/LAX,DENCYS,IADPQI,IAHTLH

Wed Aug 19, 2020 4:36 pm

klm617 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
enilria wrote:


I took this as SAL is one of the few places Americans can go...and perhaps they also gave UA money. Anybody think otherwise?


Well, there seems to be a very strong correlation between Central American community size and growth and UA hubs. Since O&D to Central America is heavily tied to demographics, this is relevant.

Below is growth by metro area from 2013-2018:

Guatemala:
Los Angeles: 22,977
Atlanta: 17,882
Houston: 13,847
Washington DC: 12,109
Miami/Fort Lauderdale: 9,760
San Francisco: 9,157
Phoenix: 8,411
Boston: 8,104
Dallas/Fort Worth: 6,149
San Jose: 5,775
Las Vegas: 5,225

Honduras:
Houston: 37,905
Washington DC: 25,078
Miami/Fort Lauderdale: 18,069
Dallas/Fort Worth: 15,944
New Orleans: 7,742
Tampa: 6,634
New York: 6,393

El Salvador:
Houston: 46,089
Los Angeles: 45,610
Washington DC: 35,669
New York: 23,985
Dallas/Fort Worth: 21,802
Atlanta: 10,190
Boston: 10,112
Miami/Fort Lauderdale: 7,401
Baltimore: 7,089
Philadelphia: 6,677
Las Vegas: 5,883
Seattle/Tacoma: 5,637


That data at best is 2 years old.


It’s growth from 2013-2018. 2019 data has not been released yet so it’s literally the most recent data available.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 701
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/18/2020:FALL FALLING;AA/AS/DL Cuts;AC Drops SNAYVR;UA Adds LGA-Florida,SAL-IAD/LAX,DENCYS,IADPQI,IAHTL

Wed Aug 19, 2020 5:21 pm

The airlines are betting on FL because right now that's where the demand is. Airlines need cashflow more than profits in the short term and filling planes to the gills, even with low yield leisure is one way to bring in the cash. Now there's going to be some that feel this is totally irresponsible of the airlines. Filling planes to the brim flying them to and back from a state that has had high numbers, particularly in more crowded tourist areas such as FLL, MIA and Orlando. And indirectly encouraging people to avoid quarantines. Others will disagree with this belief and say the free market should prevail.
 
Judge1310
Posts: 414
Joined: Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:55 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/18/2020:FALL FALLING;AA/AS/DL Cuts;AC Drops SNAYVR;UA Adds LGA-Florida,SAL-IAD/LAX,DENCYS,IADPQI,IAHTL

Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:09 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
The airlines are betting on FL because right now that's where the demand is. Airlines need cashflow more than profits in the short term and filling planes to the gills, even with low yield leisure is one way to bring in the cash. Now there's going to be some that feel this is totally irresponsible of the airlines. Filling planes to the brim flying them to and back from a state that has had high numbers, particularly in more crowded tourist areas such as FLL, MIA and Orlando. And indirectly encouraging people to avoid quarantines. Others will disagree with this belief and say the free market should prevail.


Umm, NO ONE moved the fingers of the Joe and Jane Traveller to type the names of travel sites or airlines on their keyboards or mobile devices at home to make their bookings. The VAST majority (I'd surmise well over 95%) of travellers do not maintain an idea of flight schedules and routes. People will go where they want to go when given no restriction. I can tell that many of the travellers that I see day in and day out are not ones that we would have typically seen often pre-pandemic.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8284
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/18/2020:FALL FALLING;AA/AS/DL Cuts;AC Drops SNAYVR;UA Adds LGA-Florida,SAL-IAD/LAX,DENCYS,IADPQI,IAHTL

Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:20 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
The airlines are betting on FL because right now that's where the demand is. Airlines need cashflow more than profits in the short term and filling planes to the gills, even with low yield leisure is one way to bring in the cash. Now there's going to be some that feel this is totally irresponsible of the airlines. Filling planes to the brim flying them to and back from a state that has had high numbers, particularly in more crowded tourist areas such as FLL, MIA and Orlando. And indirectly encouraging people to avoid quarantines. Others will disagree with this belief and say the free market should prevail.


It's not a matter of free market principles. Carriers follow regulations -- lots of them, in fact. If the Feds (the President, the FAA, the DOT, the CDC...) said carriers couldn't deliver passengers to/from Florida, they wouldn't try. The Feds haven't said carriers need to leave half their seats empty. And so on.
 
N649DL
Posts: 990
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:21 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/18/2020:FALL FALLING;AA/AS/DL Cuts;AC Drops SNAYVR;UA Adds LGA-Florida,SAL-IAD/LAX,DENCYS,IADPQI,IAHTL

Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:27 pm

"DL MCO-MIA OCT 5>0[0] NOV 5>0[0] DEC 4>1.6[0]"

How many times has DL changed their mind on this route over the last few years? If I'm reading this right MCO-MIA goes 5x daily to dropped in October and then back to 1.6 in December?
 
tphuang
Posts: 5346
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/18/2020:FALL FALLING;AA/AS/DL Cuts;AC Drops SNAYVR;UA Adds LGA-Florida,SAL-IAD/LAX,DENCYS,IADPQI,IAHTL

Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:33 pm

N649DL wrote:
"DL MCO-MIA OCT 5>0[0] NOV 5>0[0] DEC 4>1.6[0]"

How many times has DL changed their mind on this route over the last few years? If I'm reading this right MCO-MIA goes 5x daily to dropped in October and then back to 1.6 in December?

I think this means they are chopping it until around Christmas time.
 
User avatar
klm617
Posts: 5109
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/18/2020:FALL FALLING;AA/DL Cuts;AC Drops SNAYVR;UA Adds LGA-Florida,SAL-IAD/LAX,DENCYS,IADPQI,IAHTLH

Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:25 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:

Well, there seems to be a very strong correlation between Central American community size and growth and UA hubs. Since O&D to Central America is heavily tied to demographics, this is relevant.

Below is growth by metro area from 2013-2018:

Guatemala:
Los Angeles: 22,977
Atlanta: 17,882
Houston: 13,847
Washington DC: 12,109
Miami/Fort Lauderdale: 9,760
San Francisco: 9,157
Phoenix: 8,411
Boston: 8,104
Dallas/Fort Worth: 6,149
San Jose: 5,775
Las Vegas: 5,225

Honduras:
Houston: 37,905
Washington DC: 25,078
Miami/Fort Lauderdale: 18,069
Dallas/Fort Worth: 15,944
New Orleans: 7,742
Tampa: 6,634
New York: 6,393

El Salvador:
Houston: 46,089
Los Angeles: 45,610
Washington DC: 35,669
New York: 23,985
Dallas/Fort Worth: 21,802
Atlanta: 10,190
Boston: 10,112
Miami/Fort Lauderdale: 7,401
Baltimore: 7,089
Philadelphia: 6,677
Las Vegas: 5,883
Seattle/Tacoma: 5,637


That data at best is 2 years old.


It’s growth from 2013-2018. 2019 data has not been released yet so it’s literally the most recent data available.


While that might be true it's not really relevant two years later. Some of the data is as much a 7 years old. Just because it's in black and white doesn't mean it's relevant today.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6193
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/18/2020:FALL FALLING;AA/DL Cuts;AC Drops SNAYVR;UA Adds LGA-Florida,SAL-IAD/LAX,DENCYS,IADPQI,IAHTLH

Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:41 pm

klm617 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
klm617 wrote:

That data at best is 2 years old.


It’s growth from 2013-2018. 2019 data has not been released yet so it’s literally the most recent data available.


While that might be true it's not really relevant two years later. Some of the data is as much a 7 years old. Just because it's in black and white doesn't mean it's relevant today.


None of the data is "7 years old". Its growth over 5 years which makes it from 2018.

And its extremely relevant. The point was to demonstrate growth trends. The markets in Central American (especially SAL) are VERY heavily tied to demographics.

Its not as if these markets should be surprising to anyone. The largest 5 metro areas in each of the demographic groups have not changed since 2010.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14577
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/18/2020:FALL FALLING;AA/AS/DL Cuts;AC Drops SNAYVR;UA Adds LGA-Florida,SAL-IAD/LAX,DENCYS,IADPQI,IAHTL

Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:57 pm

Judge1310 wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
The airlines are betting on FL because right now that's where the demand is. Airlines need cashflow more than profits in the short term and filling planes to the gills, even with low yield leisure is one way to bring in the cash. Now there's going to be some that feel this is totally irresponsible of the airlines. Filling planes to the brim flying them to and back from a state that has had high numbers, particularly in more crowded tourist areas such as FLL, MIA and Orlando. And indirectly encouraging people to avoid quarantines. Others will disagree with this belief and say the free market should prevail.


Umm, NO ONE moved the fingers of the Joe and Jane Traveller to type the names of travel sites or airlines on their keyboards or mobile devices at home to make their bookings. The VAST majority (I'd surmise well over 95%) of travellers do not maintain an idea of flight schedules and routes. People will go where they want to go when given no restriction. I can tell that many of the travellers that I see day in and day out are not ones that we would have typically seen often pre-pandemic.


No kidding. Folks should take a look at the relative occupancy of the economy lots and garages at their home airports. Where I am, the sole open surface lot (COVID price of $9/day) is typically full to overflowing and the garages (COVID price of $16/day) struggle to hit 25 percent occupancy.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
altairF28
Posts: 105
Joined: Fri Dec 30, 2005 1:41 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/18/2020:FALL FALLING;AA/AS/DL Cuts;AC Drops SNAYVR;UA Adds LGA-Florida,SAL-IAD/LAX,DENCYS,IADPQI,IAHTL

Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:11 pm

tphuang wrote:
N649DL wrote:
"DL MCO-MIA OCT 5>0[0] NOV 5>0[0] DEC 4>1.6[0]"

How many times has DL changed their mind on this route over the last few years? If I'm reading this right MCO-MIA goes 5x daily to dropped in October and then back to 1.6 in December?

I think this means they are chopping it until around Christmas time.

It's not being chopped until around Christmastime, the relaunch of the long-dormant route is being delayed until then. This and MIA-TPA were both announced pre-pandemic to start late spring in order to provide feed for the new routes they got with the LATAM investment, as was MIA-SLC and an extra MIA-RDU flight. None of them has launched as of yet. When they were announced I was skeptical either MCO or TPA would last more then six months and now with the pandemic I'm even more convinced that no matter what they claim neither one of them will ever start. (SLC and the extra RDU should be okay)
A detour is a choice between two tasks, each with its own pros and cons
 
AirFiero
Posts: 1548
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:43 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/18/2020:FALL FALLING;AA/AS/DL Cuts;AC Drops SNAYVR;UA Adds LGA-Florida,SAL-IAD/LAX,DENCYS,IADPQI,IAHTL

Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:17 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
evank516 wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
I would assume airlines are looking at routes they can fill planes even if it's with low yield leisure travel. I doubt that in today's environment any airline will purposely lose more money to "get back at a competitor." LGA/FL in the winter time is a good bet for filling a plane with capacity that will bring in needed cash flow but probably still lose money.


It's a good bet in the winter time, but if the travel advisories are still up by then (and let's face it they most likely will be), then there goes any demand to Florida because everyone who isn't going down there to snow bird will have to quarantine when they get home.

Us is betting real cash that most of the restrictions and quarantines go away after Election Day....


Interesting timing, isn’t it? ;)

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