Ignoring all other elements of RR, commercial aero engines have four revenue streams - PBTH, non-PBTH support, design / consultancy and manufacturing / new sales. The first three are intrinsically profitable, but will wither without the fourth.
The financial result is RR writing off every skeleton in the cupboard. Others will do the same.
The air frame OEM's have been greedy with the engine OEM's - onerous supply agreements, high levels of retrospective credits (including on parts, PBTH, and even direct sales of engines to customers), free hack engines, and large withholding payments, making PiP's and new developments not viable even pre-COVID.
There must be a paradigm shift. Either customers must pay more to maintain the status quo. Or air frame OEM's become engine OEM's. Or sales are made on a more equitable basis. If not, there will be a decade long (or longer) hiatus, where there are no new engine developments in terms of performance, efficiency, noise or pollution.
Air frame OEM's, especially Boeing, make an early new year's resolution to suppliers.
Both Boeing and Airbus need lower engine prices. The contract terms you list are why we see NEO/MAX instead of new airframes with the new engines. As long as there are 3 engine vendors and two airframers, this will continue.
When/If there are two engine vendors, the cost of new engines will be prohibitive, so the airframers will switch to demanding more PiPs. On the 787/A320 easy, to sell on models with some minor airframe PiPs, you must PiP the engine(s). On sole source, that will be tougher.
Right now, Airbus and Boeing are fighting for their own survival, so there is nothing they will do for vendors except buy critical failing vendors.
There is only a need for a new 7 or 8- across widebody, a scope compliant 76 seat RJ, and arguably a Boeing NSA. Because there will be so little to bid on, the engine vendors will have it tough.
There is a need to replace the PW300 and HTF75000.
I expect the Pearl family to do well, but not as well as the BMR7xx family as now the PW816 and PW812 have competing wins.
RR will have it tough.
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