Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
777ER
Head Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 10134
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2003 5:04 pm

New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Sun Aug 30, 2020 10:55 am

Welcome to the September edition of the New Zealand Aviation Threads.

Link to the August 2020 edition viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1449771
Head Forum Moderator
[email protected]
Flown: 1900D,S340,Q300,AT72-5/6,DC3,CR2/7,E145,E70/75/90,A319/20/21,A332/3,A359,A380,F100,B717,B733/4/8/9,B742/4,B752/3,B763,B772/3, B789
With: NZ,SJ,QF,JQ,EK,VA,AA,UA,DL,FL,AC,FJ,SQ,TG,PR
 
zkncj
Posts: 4174
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Mon Aug 31, 2020 1:06 am

With any prospect for any International Bubbles forming in the next 6months.

Does anyone know if AIAL completed three plans to create to seperate zones in the International Terminal to seperate passengers?
 
PA515
Posts: 1653
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Mon Aug 31, 2020 9:42 am

Ex Air NZ A320-232 ZK-OJH (msn 2257) departed CHC at 1632 this afternoon as JTN224. It's heading to the USA, CHC-RAR-HNL-GYR. Don't know if it is still OE-ILI or has an N number.
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/JTN224

PA515
 
777ER
Head Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 10134
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2003 5:04 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Mon Aug 31, 2020 9:44 am

Ooops my bad with starting this thread early, totally got my dates mixed up!
Head Forum Moderator
[email protected]
Flown: 1900D,S340,Q300,AT72-5/6,DC3,CR2/7,E145,E70/75/90,A319/20/21,A332/3,A359,A380,F100,B717,B733/4/8/9,B742/4,B752/3,B763,B772/3, B789
With: NZ,SJ,QF,JQ,EK,VA,AA,UA,DL,FL,AC,FJ,SQ,TG,PR
 
NZ516
Posts: 614
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Mon Aug 31, 2020 9:57 am

PA515 wrote:
Ex Air NZ A320-232 ZK-OJH (msn 2257) departed CHC at 1632 this afternoon as JTN224. It's heading to the USA, CHC-RAR-HNL-GYR. Don't know if it is still OE-ILI or has an N number.
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/JTN224

PA515


I saw it take off on the Nor west runway and it still had that rego OE-ILI.
 
torin
Posts: 62
Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2005 7:53 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:24 am

PA515 wrote:
Ex Air NZ A320-232 ZK-OJH (msn 2257) departed CHC at 1632 this afternoon as JTN224. It's heading to the USA, CHC-RAR-HNL-GYR. Don't know if it is still OE-ILI or has an N number.
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/JTN224

PA515


Theres a departure shot if it here;

https://www.instagram.com/p/CEkSeUhhSUD
 
NZ516
Posts: 614
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:14 am

Vote to decide New Zealand's favourite regional airport

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2 ... sNuoIPDMIg


This makes an interesting read lots of unique aspects to our regional airports. Not all airports were surveyed though. Looks like Tauranga got the best airport award.
 
zkncj
Posts: 4174
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:31 am

NZ516 wrote:
Vote to decide New Zealand's favourite regional airport

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2 ... sNuoIPDMIg


This makes an interesting read lots of unique aspects to our regional airports. Not all airports were surveyed though. Looks like Tauranga got the best airport award.


Technically wouldn’t ZQN be an Regional Airport? After all Queenstown isn’t even an major city.
 
User avatar
Zkpilot
Posts: 4580
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:17 am

zkncj wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Vote to decide New Zealand's favourite regional airport

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2 ... sNuoIPDMIg


This makes an interesting read lots of unique aspects to our regional airports. Not all airports were surveyed though. Looks like Tauranga got the best airport award.


Technically wouldn’t ZQN be an Regional Airport? After all Queenstown isn’t even an major city.

Yes but in the NZ it means non-jet ie regional airports which rules out - AKL/WLG/CHC/ZQN/DUD/IVC.
Another take is non-international airports (which rules out AKL/WLG/CHC/ZQN/DUD
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1812
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:16 am

So sad to see Cam Wallace leaving the company! Another great loss.
 
zkncj
Posts: 4174
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Thu Sep 03, 2020 7:59 am

NZ6 wrote:
So sad to see Cam Wallace leaving the company! Another great loss.


Very sad to see, there must not be much of an EXEC Team left at NZ now.

This last lockdown is going to likely be the lasts straw for allot of the tourism industry in New Zealand. Unless there is government assurance that level 3 and 4 won’t be used again.
 
NPL8800
Posts: 140
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2016 5:00 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Thu Sep 03, 2020 8:14 am

Polar Air Cargo began regular AKL flights today, weekly 747-8 flight routing SYD-AKL-ICN. Good to see some cargo only carrier growth.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1812
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Thu Sep 03, 2020 8:34 am

zkncj wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
So sad to see Cam Wallace leaving the company! Another great loss.


Very sad to see, there must not be much of an EXEC Team left at NZ now.

This last lockdown is going to likely be the lasts straw for allot of the tourism industry in New Zealand. Unless there is government assurance that level 3 and 4 won’t be used again.


Mate.

- Almost no international tourism until 2022
- Air NZ basically short haul / domestic for some considerable time with core cargo links only.
- A big delay coming to 787-10
- Potential to see 789 fleet to reduce in size too.

DavidByrne called it earlier in the year and I thought he was going mad but it turns out his was right on the money. I don't blame Wallace for leave now. It'll be 10+ years before NZ is back to pre COVID levels and his career needs to continue.
 
zkncj
Posts: 4174
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Thu Sep 03, 2020 8:42 am

NZ6 wrote:
- Potential to see 789 fleet to reduce in size too.


Wonder if Boeing could come up with an 789BCF option? If that is even possible with an 787 frame, being that the are composite and not aluminium.

Could see some of thee early frames be good conversions e.g NZC which was an test frame is an 2013 build.
 
User avatar
V60Polestar
Posts: 16
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:08 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:05 pm

ADB An-124 UR-82072 is on the ground at AKL right now; no clue on departure though but I heard midday today.
- Biponacci
 
User avatar
Zkpilot
Posts: 4580
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:05 pm

NZ6 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
So sad to see Cam Wallace leaving the company! Another great loss.


Very sad to see, there must not be much of an EXEC Team left at NZ now.

This last lockdown is going to likely be the lasts straw for allot of the tourism industry in New Zealand. Unless there is government assurance that level 3 and 4 won’t be used again.


Mate.

- Almost no international tourism until 2022
- Air NZ basically short haul / domestic for some considerable time with core cargo links only.
- A big delay coming to 787-10
- Potential to see 789 fleet to reduce in size too.

DavidByrne called it earlier in the year and I thought he was going mad but it turns out his was right on the money. I don't blame Wallace for leave now. It'll be 10+ years before NZ is back to pre COVID levels and his career needs to continue.

We’ll see. All it takes is a vaccine or effective treatment and we can all open up again and there is a ton of pent up travel demand.
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
Gemuser
Posts: 5119
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Thu Sep 03, 2020 11:07 pm

Zkpilot wrote:
We’ll see. All it takes is a vaccine or effective treatment and we can all open up again and there is a ton of pent up travel demand.


I actually hope you are right, but I doubt there really is that much pent up travel demand. Given the hit to income of about a third of the population has taken [in Australia, I assume NZ is similar] I really doubt that demand is going to come roaring back. I think it will take at least two years to start to come back & five years to get back to 2019 levels is not unrealistic.

Gemuser
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1825
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Thu Sep 03, 2020 11:50 pm

Zkpilot wrote:
We’ll see. All it takes is a vaccine or effective treatment and we can all open up again and there is a ton of pent up travel demand.

There will be a lot of health politics and geopolitics to play out before things open up. A vaccine is not necessary going to be the panacea for the tourist industry for a number of reasons, though it's a necessary prerequisite for things to move forward:

* We don't know how fast a vaccine will become available or how affordable it will be for "discretionary" travellers
* We don't know how effective a vaccine will be - will it last for a year, six months, or three months? The shorter the period of immunity, the less willing many people will be to travel
* We don't know how reliable a vaccine will be - will it be effective for 50% of the population? 80%? or how many?
* Anti-vaxxers (what, 1, 2, 3% of the potential market?) will presumably stay home anyway, rather than compromise their principles
* Some people, especially the older age-group who are more vulnerable, will focus their recreational travel on the domestic scene, rather than undertake travel they might see as "risky" - even to destinations that were previously considered "safe" like Europe and the USA
* Some countries may be slow to re-open borders to foreigners; I don't think we can necessarily expect all the same rules and regulations regarding visa-free travel to apply after the pandemic as applied before
* and as Gemuser pointed out, household disposable income has taken a big hit, and many people who would like to travel may no longer be able to

Case in point: my "big trip" for 2020 was going to be to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan (I'd be there right now if things hadn't gone awry). Am I confident it will be possible in 2021? Not at all. Perhaps 2022, but even then will the borders between the countries be open and allow me to travel by my preferred mode (marshrutka) between countries? Will the visa-free status have changed? Will ordinary people in these countries even welcome foreigners, or will there be some hostility? I don't know, and I'm not making any plans for the future on that score.

Like Gemuser, I hope these issues can resolve themselves really soon, that the vaccine is 100% available, that it's so cheap as to be no problem, that countries relax border restrictions quickly, and that countries like the USA (a major for the NZ tourist industry) get their act together sooner rather than later. But I wouldn't put money on any of these things happening soon.

As an aside, I did a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation the other day and calculated that NZ could operate its current international schedule with just six WB aircraft. Fifty or so years ago, that was the number of DC8s in the fleet. There are fourteen 789s in the fleet and eight 787-10s on order. I'd personally be surprised if the fleet was any larger than these 22 aircraft in five years from now. I could also see the A321 being used more for medium-haul routes to (say) PPT, PER and even (with a small subfleet of XLRs) to HNL and DPS. I know that's been discussed and dismissed before, but I can see the A321 becoming more and more used for long-haul elsewhere in the world, and while it's not ideal from a passenger point of view, the economics of it may be very attractive, even compelling, in the long run.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
zkncj
Posts: 4174
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:20 am

I can see the A321NEO being an major part in NZ's fleet over the next 5 years, in there results presentation it was interesting to see that they have still left it option an to take delivery of the deferred A321NEO's in 2021/22.

I would say they over the past for months of using on Domestic they have found it more cost effective running less flights, but with more seats while still keeping flights every hour on the main trunk.

The A321NEO fleet is likely to have an very busy summer ahead, if domestic travel is only still an option by then (highly likely).
 
NZ6
Posts: 1812
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:00 am

Zkpilot wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
zkncj wrote:

Very sad to see, there must not be much of an EXEC Team left at NZ now.

This last lockdown is going to likely be the lasts straw for allot of the tourism industry in New Zealand. Unless there is government assurance that level 3 and 4 won’t be used again.


Mate.

- Almost no international tourism until 2022
- Air NZ basically short haul / domestic for some considerable time with core cargo links only.
- A big delay coming to 787-10
- Potential to see 789 fleet to reduce in size too.

DavidByrne called it earlier in the year and I thought he was going mad but it turns out his was right on the money. I don't blame Wallace for leave now. It'll be 10+ years before NZ is back to pre COVID levels and his career needs to continue.

We’ll see. All it takes is a vaccine or effective treatment and we can all open up again and there is a ton of pent up travel demand.


Gosh I like most of us here hope I'm wrong but to my points

- Our borders won't open until there is a vaccine or an immediate and reliable test or treatment. It appears a vaccine will come first in that list but there's so much beyond a vaccine itself to consider. Firstly, timelines; it'll be first half of next year at best, but that's a 'at best' statement and you won't see the borders open on the day a vaccine goes to the market. So it'll likely watch and see for several months after that. There's also the political debate. Is it for Kiwis to be vaccinated against it or inbound travelers? - Do you need proof of vaccination and do we accept all vaccinations or only selected ones? I don't want to go on but it sort of highlights why next year is almost a write off already.

- Air NZ is that now. I can't see much growth back to what it was for some time

- I've heard a rumor of a 3-5 year delay on the 78J

- I'm also heard consideration is going into parking up several 789's for longer periods. Most likely next winter if travel isn't opening up but I can't confirm details yet.

The last two are from a retired senior manager who is still has strong connections.

As for the "pent up demand"... I hope you're right there too but other than a tone of credits I'm unsure what the market will do. There'll likely be an initial buzz when we're all set free, weekends and weeks in the tropics or Australia and perhaps an expected exodus of Kiwis who live or work abroad but what will be medium term do after that?

And will be people have the confidence to travel and if not how long will it take to regain that?
 
Kiwiandrew
Posts: 53
Joined: Wed Oct 23, 2019 10:06 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:17 am

NZ6 wrote:

As for the "pent up demand"... I hope you're right there too but other than a tone of credits I'm unsure what the market will do. There'll likely be an initial buzz when we're all set free, weekends and weeks in the tropics or Australia and perhaps an expected exodus of Kiwis who live or work abroad but what will be medium term do after that?

And will be people have the confidence to travel and if not how long will it take to regain that?


Another imponderable, and one which will have a considerable impact on many people's confidence to travel, is the availability of travel insurance ... while people may risk an uninsured trip to Australia, I doubt whether people will be keen to take the same risks for most other countries ... most travel insurance policies contain exclusions regarding pandemics, and more importantly, are effectively void if you travel 'against government advice' ...currently the MFAT website carries a big banner "Do not travel overseas at this time" - so, let's have a show of hands - how many people who are currently itching to travel, would be keen to travel to the USA or Canada with absolutely no insurance cover at all, not just against Covid related claims, but no cover for anything?
 
User avatar
afterburner33
Posts: 202
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2012 8:46 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:33 am

I see an Antonov Airlines An-124 (UR-82072) is currently visiting AKL - it arrived on Thursday morning, after travelling CGN-YYR-MSP-PVD-ORD-HNL-AKL

There's a video of the flight here (with added haka) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-06-OnSt6I
 
wstakl
Posts: 241
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 7:51 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:45 am

Border's will be shut until a vaccine is available for Kiwi's or bubble's are formed with other countries. Aunty Cindy has shown since this whole thing started how determined she is to take the conservative approach. Today was a perfect example, both her and health officials say the Auckland cluster is contained but the rest of NZ stays at Level 2. Why? Wasn't it not long ago that we were told containment of a cluster was the green light to move down a level?

I have no desire at all to travel to the US (virus or not), but as soon as non quarantine travel is a go then I'm off to continue exploring the world.
 
zkncj
Posts: 4174
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:57 am

https://www.jetstar.com/nz/en/travel-alerts

JQ has extended its cancelation of domestic services until 16th September, togo along with level 2 being extend.
How long until JQ just pull the plug on New Zealand? they must be getting over trying to operate within the New Zealand COVID requirements.
There is 6x A320s in AKL, and another 2x in CHC parked up.


In better news, it sounds like Scott Morrison spoke with Jacinda this morning about his plans to open travel up on the Tasman.
https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/australian-pm-economies-to-reopen-but-state-borders-to-remain-closed

Hopefully an agreement could be in place by December for New Zealanders to be able to travel to Australia.
 
User avatar
RyanairGuru
Posts: 8644
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Fri Sep 04, 2020 10:44 am

zkncj wrote:



In better news, it sounds like Scott Morrison spoke with Jacinda this morning about his plans to open travel up on the Tasman.
https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/australian-pm-economies-to-reopen-but-state-borders-to-remain-closed

Hopefully an agreement could be in place by December for New Zealanders to be able to travel to Australia.


It's certainly not guaranteed. What Morrison has proposed is basically that New Zealand sign up to whatever the Australian premiers and chief ministers agree among themselves.

I really can't see New Zealand agreeing to a bubble on those terms, as I sincerely doubt the Chief Minister of the Northern Territory is going to pay much attention to New Zealand's interests, let alone those of Cook Islands and Niue.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
NZ1
Head Moderator
Posts: 1802
Joined: Sat May 01, 2004 1:32 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:48 am

NZ6 wrote:
- I've heard a rumor of a 3-5 year delay on the 78J

- I'm also heard consideration is going into parking up several 789's for longer periods. Most likely next winter if travel isn't opening up but I can't confirm details yet.


Interesting considering one of the 787-10s orders has recently been converted to a 787-9.
--
NZ1
Head Forum Moderator
 
NZ6
Posts: 1812
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Sat Sep 05, 2020 3:19 am

NZ1 wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
- I've heard a rumor of a 3-5 year delay on the 78J

- I'm also heard consideration is going into parking up several 789's for longer periods. Most likely next winter if travel isn't opening up but I can't confirm details yet.


Interesting considering one of the 787-10s orders has recently been converted to a 787-9.


Yeah. Perhaps it's nothing.

As I said. It was from a retired employee but one who was well connected. Can't validate it's accuracy which is why I outlined it's not first hand or from a current employee.
 
zkncj
Posts: 4174
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Sat Sep 05, 2020 5:42 pm

How often are high touch points currently being cleaned on NZ’s Domestic fleet?

Flying out of ZQN yesterday, it became apparent that it must not be cleaning touch points between domestic turns. All the aircraft in ZQN were boarding way to quick after the last passengers had left the aircraft.

There was rubbish on the floor of my ZQN-AKL flight from the previous flight.

When JQ was flying under level 1, they would give you an fly well kit which had cleaning wipes, hand sanitizer and an mask. Yet on NZ during level 3 they are only handing out masks.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1812
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Sun Sep 06, 2020 5:50 am

NZ1 wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
- I've heard a rumor of a 3-5 year delay on the 78J

- I'm also heard consideration is going into parking up several 789's for longer periods. Most likely next winter if travel isn't opening up but I can't confirm details yet.


Interesting considering one of the 787-10s orders has recently been converted to a 787-9.


Just a thought on this.

Foran has said NZ's about to start using the $900m loan and is still burning between $65-$85 million per month. Just some loose math that's only (give or take) a year's worth of burn. Do we see the situation being fundamentally better in 12 months?

How much money is secured/locked into future aircraft payments or is NZ planning/hoping hit the black and make payments when things return to a "normal state" as well as paying off this $900m loan with hefty interest rates?

They had over $1B in cash, the below article outlines approximately $550m worth of burn between Apr-Jun but also states only $1.1b left inclusive of the loan.

There's clearly thought going into having enough cash to kick start again whenever that may occur. But it's potentially easy to see why aircraft deferrals may be an option that's on the table even it's it's not the option currently.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indust ... since-2002
 
NZ516
Posts: 614
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:06 pm

South African are sending one of their Airbus A340-600s to Christchurch today expected to arrive at 1054 direct from Johannesburg a very long flight. rego is ZS-SND.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SAA2984
https://www.flightradar24.com/SA2984/257006e2
 
NZ516
Posts: 614
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:13 pm

Silence from Government and Air NZ raises questions about future ownership


Drawn-out discussions between Air New Zealand and the Government over the company’s future capital structure could be a sign the airline’s majority shareholder is considering taking a bigger stake, or possibly full ownership, of the national carrier, an aviation expert says.

One industry analyst said the airline indicated on a recent conference call that it was unlikely there would be an announcement on its capital structure before the election.

Air New Zealand, which two weeks ago posted its first loss in 18 years, is in urgent need of cash, with coronavirus reducing annual revenue from $6 billion to $1b in the 2020 financial year and cash on hand falling from $1.1b to about $200 million

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indust ... -ownership

Can see the government taking full ownership due to the airline not being in a position to pay back the $900 m loan for a very long time.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1825
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:10 pm

NZ516 wrote:
Can see the government taking full ownership due to the airline not being in a position to pay back the $900 m loan for a very long time.

Very unlikely indeed in my view. More likely is that the $900m (and possibly more) will be converted to an equity stake and leave the existing shareholders' stakes diluted. No reason to take full ownership.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
NZ6
Posts: 1812
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Mon Sep 07, 2020 11:39 pm

NZ516 wrote:
Silence from Government and Air NZ raises questions about future ownership


Drawn-out discussions between Air New Zealand and the Government over the company’s future capital structure could be a sign the airline’s majority shareholder is considering taking a bigger stake, or possibly full ownership, of the national carrier, an aviation expert says.

One industry analyst said the airline indicated on a recent conference call that it was unlikely there would be an announcement on its capital structure before the election.

Air New Zealand, which two weeks ago posted its first loss in 18 years, is in urgent need of cash, with coronavirus reducing annual revenue from $6 billion to $1b in the 2020 financial year and cash on hand falling from $1.1b to about $200 million

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indust ... -ownership

Can see the government taking full ownership due to the airline not being in a position to pay back the $900 m loan for a very long time.


DavidByrne wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Can see the government taking full ownership due to the airline not being in a position to pay back the $900 m loan for a very long time.

Very unlikely indeed in my view. More likely is that the $900m (and possibly more) will be converted to an equity stake and leave the existing shareholders' stakes diluted. No reason to take full ownership.


I agree a bit early and a bit premature for a complete government takeover.

If anything like this was to happen; it'll likely be the government buying more ownership of the airline (essentially dumping cash into the bank) and the airline continuing on with the $900m loan as is. However we can't rule out the loan being written off as equity in the business and the airline raising funds via other means.

There's just so many variables and complete unknowns at play to guess where it might end up.

If the government was to buy more of the business under what terms would it be? What size and what reach would the government see as appropriate. Do we completely can all pacific rim growth and focus just on core trade links (Shanghai, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore and LAX maybe SFO). Would that be goodbye to ICN, KIX, TPE, DPS, IAH, ORD, EWR for some years to come? And under what terms can the airline grow again?

Would that result in a further downsizing? I can't see the Tax payer seeing value in high risk investments while we're still in the COVID pandemic.

However, stage 3 trials for the Oxford vaccine are due to conclude in November. The findings of this and an independent/regulatory evaluation the vaccine will follow and there's some strong positive momentum around it's availability from Jan-Mar next year.

Should that timeline go as expected we can start asking questions around the economic recovery. There's a lot of talk about the V or U shape recovery. Thus being the "pent up demand" people are hoping for.

If that all pans out should the $900m loan see the airline through the pandemic?

Obviously though, any slippage of this even several months changes a lot quickly.

The first hurdle will be the election. I can't see anyone wanting to make this a "voting factor".
 
NZ516
Posts: 614
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Tue Sep 08, 2020 1:38 am

Probably yes its to early to see the outcome. We might have to wait till the end of the year when a vaccine might be out to re- evaluate the situation.
 
NZ516
Posts: 614
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Tue Sep 08, 2020 1:46 am

Originair, Hamilton Airport prepare to restart regional passenger route

Hamilton Airport and Nelson’s Originair have reinstated a domestic route dropped by Air New Zealand during the coronavirus alert levels.

But level 2 social distancing rules meant the airline might not be able to fill every seat on the aircraft flying between two regional cities.

The new partnership will re-establish the Hamilton-Palmerston North route, starting October 19. A flight will depart Palmerston North for Hamilton at 10.50am and then return at 1pm, Monday to Friday.

more:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/12268953 ... nger-route

Another former Air NZ route taken up but the timings might not be so popular compared with the early morning Q300 schedule. So we know now where their new Jetstream is going. Origin are also looking in to re starting the former Kiwi Air Nelson to Hamilton route. I wonder if they will look at the Wellington to Palmerston route also given up by Air NZ. It will link up all the dots on the way. No mention if they will return to Napier or New Plymouth.
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2755
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Tue Sep 08, 2020 2:22 am

DavidByrne wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Can see the government taking full ownership due to the airline not being in a position to pay back the $900 m loan for a very long time.

Very unlikely indeed in my view. More likely is that the $900m (and possibly more) will be converted to an equity stake and leave the existing shareholders' stakes diluted. No reason to take full ownership.

The issue will be that if the government continues to make loans to NZ, it will become so highly geared that no one else will be interested in lending them money. Of course, the government could subordinate its debt, at which point it may as well be equity anyway.

It seems NZ has correctly recognised that it is a very small airline in world terms and needs to build on its strengths as a domestic and regional operator. It will be many years before it can even think of returning to wider global operations. It is a member of a global alliance for a reason; it will need to use Star to offer its customers the world.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
AMSAKL
Posts: 22
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:58 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Tue Sep 08, 2020 3:41 am

tullamarine wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Can see the government taking full ownership due to the airline not being in a position to pay back the $900 m loan for a very long time.

Very unlikely indeed in my view. More likely is that the $900m (and possibly more) will be converted to an equity stake and leave the existing shareholders' stakes diluted. No reason to take full ownership.

The issue will be that if the government continues to make loans to NZ, it will become so highly geared that no one else will be interested in lending them money. Of course, the government could subordinate its debt, at which point it may as well be equity anyway.

It seems NZ has correctly recognized that it is a very small airline in world terms and needs to build on its strengths as a domestic and regional operator. It will be many years before it can even think of returning to wider global operations. It is a member of a global alliance for a reason; it will need to use Star to offer its customers the world.


Maybe small but not very small as you state. It could be a few years indeed before wider operations look like anything they did before but it could also come back quicker than we think. I agree with some commentators that there is plenty of pent up demand and I do think people will be travelling in great numbers sooner rather than later. As for returning to global operations, a large proportion of NZ long haul routes are to North America and Asia, if NZ didn't fly these routes should we expect other Star Carriers to fly them instead? Under strict border lock down NZ has been reinstating some long haul routes even if only once a week.
 
zkncj
Posts: 4174
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Tue Sep 08, 2020 5:56 am

NZ516 wrote:
Another former Air NZ route taken up but the timings might not be so popular compared with the early morning Q300 schedule. So we know now where their new Jetstream is going. Origin are also looking in to re starting the former Kiwi Air Nelson to Hamilton route. I wonder if they will look at the Wellington to Palmerston route also given up by Air NZ. It will link up all the dots on the way. No mention if they will return to Napier or New Plymouth.


The only reason I would assume that NZ operated WLG-PMR, was mainly for connections beyond WLG. Would think allot of passengers would not be ending there journey in WLG.

An PMR-WLG-NSN maybe able to work if it was timed well, with an short transit in WLG.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1825
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Tue Sep 08, 2020 6:02 am

NZ516 wrote:
Originair, Hamilton Airport prepare to restart regional passenger route

Origin are also looking in to re starting the former Kiwi Air Nelson to Hamilton route. I wonder if they will look at the Wellington to Palmerston route also given up by Air NZ. It will link up all the dots on the way. No mention if they will return to Napier or New Plymouth.

NZ also operated NSN-HLZ for a brief period in the B1900 days. Didn't last long, but I always thought it was an option for Origin. As for NSN-NPL - that was operated decades ago by Golden Bay Airlines (and possibly SPANZ as well - can't be sure).
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1825
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Tue Sep 08, 2020 6:06 am

zkncj wrote:
An PMR-WLG-NSN maybe able to work if it was timed well, with an short transit in WLG.

Why on earth would they undermine their own NSN-PMR route?
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4383
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Tue Sep 08, 2020 10:23 am

zkncj wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Another former Air NZ route taken up but the timings might not be so popular compared with the early morning Q300 schedule. So we know now where their new Jetstream is going. Origin are also looking in to re starting the former Kiwi Air Nelson to Hamilton route. I wonder if they will look at the Wellington to Palmerston route also given up by Air NZ. It will link up all the dots on the way. No mention if they will return to Napier or New Plymouth.


The only reason I would assume that NZ operated WLG-PMR, was mainly for connections beyond WLG. Would think allot of passengers would not be ending there journey in WLG.

Under that logic, at least pre-Covid, would there not also have been demand for HLZ-AKL? Albeit HLZ-AKL (66mi) is slightly shorter than PMR-WLG (81mi), and has better roading.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4383
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Tue Sep 08, 2020 10:24 am

NZ516 wrote:
Originair, Hamilton Airport prepare to restart regional passenger route

Hamilton Airport and Nelson’s Originair have reinstated a domestic route dropped by Air New Zealand during the coronavirus alert levels.

I'm curious - what is the primary target market for this route? Is there a lot of business traffic?

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4383
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Tue Sep 08, 2020 10:31 am

tullamarine wrote:
NZ ... will need to use Star to offer its customers the world.

It would be interesting though if, on the contrary, NZ decided to open up some niche routes bypassing Star hubs, to avoid Covid-19 risks at those transit hubs. There has been some commentary about New Zealand-originating passengers possibly picking up Covid-19 in transit in SIN, for example.

Places like Vietnam have had low Covid infections, so may be more likely to be feasible for New Zealand to open to, before elsewhere. An NZ AKL - SGN route, bypassing SIN, could be one example of this. Although SIN has contained the virus too, airside (/in transit) is a totally different story, with transits allowed to/from many places, increasing risks for passengers.

But certainly Star connections on SQ and the like will continue to be incredibly important ...

Cheers,

C.
 
grjplanes
Posts: 215
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 5:52 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Tue Sep 08, 2020 12:52 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Originair, Hamilton Airport prepare to restart regional passenger route

Origin are also looking in to re starting the former Kiwi Air Nelson to Hamilton route. I wonder if they will look at the Wellington to Palmerston route also given up by Air NZ. It will link up all the dots on the way. No mention if they will return to Napier or New Plymouth.

NZ also operated NSN-HLZ for a brief period in the B1900 days. Didn't last long, but I always thought it was an option for Origin. As for NSN-NPL - that was operated decades ago by Golden Bay Airlines (and possibly SPANZ as well - can't be sure).


I remember flying HLZ-NSN back in 2005 on Origin Pacific on Jetstream 41...not sure for how long that service lasted back then, think the route was operated only 2 or 3 times weekly.
Back then there was also 2 or 3 daily HLZ-AKL on NZ B1900.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1825
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:48 pm

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... f-08sep20/

Wow. In the northern winter (normally the airline's peak time) NZ is cancelling AKL-SFO and reducing AKL-LAX to 3x weekly. Perhaps the cargo market isn't as strong as assumed. Or perhaps cash burn dictates a lower level of operation. A few days ago I estimated that NZ could function using just 6 WB aircraft on the current timetable. Now that number is 4-5. It will be a long slow recovery.

Sure, as others have suggested, there is some pent-up demand, outbound at least, that will come into play when a vaccine is available. But the resurgence may be transitory and we may then have a long slow recovery off a low base. I seriously can't see large numbers of inbound tourists flocking back to NZ for a few years while there is so much global uncertainty, and given so many people (globally) have suffered big income hits and will have to tighten their belts. The days of having 40+ flights a week to the Americas are a pipe dream for the foreseeable future in my view.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1825
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:50 pm

. . . or maybe AA restarting LAX-SYD is going to hit the potential freight market?
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
NZ6
Posts: 1812
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Tue Sep 08, 2020 9:05 pm

tullamarine wrote:
it will need to use Star to offer its customers the world.


I'd reword that slightly. The whole global alliance thing these days is second to direct partnership alliances. Especially the revenue share alliances.

CX, CA, UA, SQ and of course we could have included AR but now EZE is gone we won't.

These partners will be critical.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1812
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Tue Sep 08, 2020 9:17 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/293606/air-new-zealand-nw20-international-operations-as-of-08sep20/

Wow. In the northern winter (normally the airline's peak time) NZ is cancelling AKL-SFO and reducing AKL-LAX to 3x weekly. Perhaps the cargo market isn't as strong as assumed. Or perhaps cash burn dictates a lower level of operation. A few days ago I estimated that NZ could function using just 6 WB aircraft on the current timetable. Now that number is 4-5. It will be a long slow recovery.

Sure, as others have suggested, there is some pent-up demand, outbound at least, that will come into play when a vaccine is available. But the resurgence may be transitory and we may then have a long slow recovery off a low base. I seriously can't see large numbers of inbound tourists flocking back to NZ for a few years while there is so much global uncertainty, and given so many people (globally) have suffered big income hits and will have to tighten their belts. The days of having 40+ flights a week to the Americas are a pipe dream for the foreseeable future in my view.


There'll be non passenger cargo flights on top of this but go back to what I said over the weekend around the current 789 fleet.

There's 14 of them and no current need.

It's almost as if there's two critical elements which the airline is trying to balance off against each other.

- Last as long as you can in the current state
- Have the cash and be the right size for when that changes.

If someone came out and said (and I realize they won't and can't) borders will be shut until July 2022. We'd see more imminent changes.

I mean, that time-frame may pan out, who knows! But as a side example, I read yesterday a number of our sporting codes who rely on Trans-Tasman travel are exploring and preparing for how they operate next season with the expectation nothing has changed (League, Rugby, Baseball, Basketball and Netball).

But this vaccine is the carrot of hope.

Even that's a, if when and what happens after.
 
NZ516
Posts: 614
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:10 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Originair, Hamilton Airport prepare to restart regional passenger route

Hamilton Airport and Nelson’s Originair have reinstated a domestic route dropped by Air New Zealand during the coronavirus alert levels.

I'm curious - what is the primary target market for this route? Is there a lot of business traffic?

Cheers,

C.


I would say a mix of both. Plus Hamilton size is big enough to support flying to other cities other than WLG & CHC.
 
NZ516
Posts: 614
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:21 pm

Nelson wins it this year. Full story below:

Nelson Airport
New Plymouth Airport
Gisborne Airport
Tauranga Airport
Whakatane Airport
Rotorua Airport
Palmerston North
Hamilton Airport
Invercargill Airport
Hawke's Bay Airport
Whangarei District Airport
Whanganui Airport
Marlborough Airport
Hokitika Airport

Revealed: The regional airport voted New Zealand's best

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2 ... -best.html

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos