2175301 wrote:oldJoe wrote:jeffrey0032j wrote:The good thing for Boeing now is that the Max is on low rate production, easier for them if they need to stop production.
A similar situation for Airbus will hit Airbus worse than Boeing as Airbus is still not cutting production rates to match demand, I reckon that in a few months time, Airbus may have more planes sitting around than Boeing.
Airbus builds 40 A32x family aircraft per month and delivers ~35 per month. How on earth will they match 500 in a few months ?
I believe that most of those "delivered" aircraft are being immediately parked.
The number of aircraft delivered and put into actual service at this time is low. That is the problem. The airlines are likely going to stop accepting aircraft in the near future that are being put into storage...
Have a great day,
None of the new aircraft is needed. Best case is the A320NEO is delivered and out into service while an A320CEO (or A319, in many cases) is returned to the leasing company. When we recover, the A319 will probably be parted and that returned A320CEO will probably go back into service.
Most of the new aircraft are needed. Somewhere an aircraft goes into storage. If the prior plane is scrapped, then the OEM losses out on spares revenue at some point in the future. Boeing used to say during their conference calls and employee presentations that their primary competition is used Boeings. For Airbus, it is also used Airbus aircraft.
Since Delta, American, and United (+ others) operate both, they will likely expand again on the ample and discounted used inventory on whatever makes sense to them. Who here thought Delta would pull the stored NW A320s back into service? Until the limit of Validity extension, they were pretty used up (then they weren't, just paper, but certification has a purpose). Or buy up used MD-90s? AA has even discussed used A319s a year ago:
https://simpleflying.com/american-airli ... -purchase/
We've had discussions on the aircraft lease/values threads on declining used pricing:
For low utilization duty, for example, United, Delta, or American feeding the largest (premium) hub banks or Allegiant/Volotea, they are most profitable expanding used or 'hand me down' within the fleet as aircraft age out of high utilization duty.
I posted current values look too synthetic, as if pricing was on previously negotiated terms. When it comes time to clear the market, used 10 to 15 year old aircraft will drop in transaction price from today's already discounted.
I like shiney new planes. But I can do a cash flow analysis, present value analysis, risk analysis (scenarios with probabilities, various weighting strategies), and worst case analysis, borrowing cost analysis and risk...
I see most younger parked aircraft returning to service.
I also see a Logan's Run where the over 30 year olds are scrapped, excluding freighters/conversion stock.