morrisond wrote:lightsaber wrote:While the side discussion is facinating, please tie into the current production rates. Are the aircraft makers playing chicken or should they go back to full production?morrisond wrote:Here is a good sample of some the Capacity that has been permanently removed this year.
https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/whi ... 68.article
Please post a summary as flightglobal blocks non-members.
FWIW, you being more pessimistic than I is scary. I believe we both see a recovery, it is the intermittent years that will be tough.
I was more pessimistic than you I think back in the start of this and put the 787 at 5 - close enough to the current 6 and the A350 at 3, A330 at 2 - currently at 5 and 2.
It's actually quite easy to become a Flight Global member - no Money required. They don't really have a table either in that article that is easy to copy.
I don't think they should go back to full production however it may not be that long before they increase production again at least on 787/330 that is where I can see Airlines adding capacity.
Here is not a bad source for World Airline Fleets as of 2018/2019. I'll go through and take a very rough guess on what won't be returning.
Airbus 340 was 159 - might be 20-30 in Private/governmental use - Assume 300 Seats x130 Commercial use frames - 40,000 Seats - now 0.
Airbus 330 was 1,265 - about 500 are pre 2005 - probably not coming back - 270 seats x 1,265 = 341,550 Seats - now 206,550
Airbus A380 was 250 - Lets be optimistic and call it 100 coming back. 250 X 500 Seats = 125,000 - now 50,000 Seats
Boeing 747 was 462 - No Passenger Models coming back other than the 748's - call it a loss of 430 x400 Seats = 172,000 now 30ish? X 400 = 12,000 - that seems like a lot of 747 Passenger models still flying then but the list says no freighters
Boeing 767 was 742 x 240 Seats = 178,080 seats - now what 200? = 48,000 seats
Boeing 777 was 1,416 x 350 Seats = 495,600 - take out the 687 produced pre -2008 leaves you with 255,150.
Very - Very rough totals.
Pre-Covid about 1,352,150 seats available on Widebody Aircraft. Now about 571,700 - a reduction of about 58%.
Then of course you have the 350 and 787 fleets which are about 300,000 seats - so call it reduction of about 47% in Widebody seats.
Thats a lot and of course very - very rough. Demand for new frames should return sooner rather than later once demand exceeds 50% of the old number.
First, thank you for the numbers. I agree that with so many out of service, that a small increase in demand will start having planes return to service.
The 2005 cutoff for the A330 is good, but some went through maintenance checks, but we'll see another 100,000+ seats return.
I'll use Airfleets and sets of 250 for the 787 and 300 for the A350. 958 in service of 996 built. I would expect a return, perhaps subtract the first 26 built due to being way overweight.
A350 379 in service of 396 built. One would expect a return.
So using my slightly different numbers, I have a start of 1,721,980 seats.
I assume not all are in service If I use all A350 in service (per airfleets) and say the following. However, I agree, about half the seats are in service. The difference is how many will return. I agree some old aircraft will retired quickly.
I calculate just over 850,000 seats in service, but we will see more return, if only temporarily. e.g., EY, QR, KE/OZ, BA, and LH A380s will temporarily push us over a hundred A380s (I assume 100 EK A380s return to service).
767: 400 return (temporarily) to passenger duty (hundreds scrapped or made into freighters)
A340: 20 return (who and where, I don't know, but we'll have a thread on it here on a.net, if nothing else, HiFly)
A330: 965 return. I'm just not as pessimistic as you with the limit of validity extension to 60,000 cycles and 180,000 FH, it is super cheap if widebodies are needed to get these back in service. The A330 no longer has the short life it had with a 36,000 FC limit of validity, these planes can keep on going.
787: I expect 976 to return to service (perhaps the teens for a bit, perhaps not)
777: An arbitrary age doesn't mean much on an aircraft with 60,000 FC and 160,000 FH limit of validity. None are close. Oh, most Pratt ones will get scrapped. , but not all. I'm guessing 800 return to service just based on past recessions.
747: Yea, toast but for the 748 pretty much.
So I calculate they will quickly and cheaply return to about 63% of prior seating quickly.
The issue of production. New 787s will trend larger (787-10), so I will use 275 seats for going forward production and 325 for the a350 (because the A35K should be a higher fraction of new sales).
So assuming they match each other (60 787s per year, 60 A350s per year) plus 24 A330s at 270 seats each, plus I'm adding 18 777s, but upping to 400 seats for the 779.
That means the "idle" production rate is about 3% per year of 2019 widebody seat capacity. So until we are above 2/3rds above prior demand, it is a tough market.
Add to this some fraction of the prior widebody market will be on narrowbodies. Indigo, JetBlue, AirBaltic, VietJet, and CebuPacific are unlikely to miss out an any opportunity their new longer range narrowbodies provide them.
At this time, I do not see any narrowbody production required until 2023 (this time start of 2023 to replace scrapped MD-80/90 and other older narrowbodies) . I personally think the A319 is doomed. (Airfleets has 1166 still in service). However, we have A320NEO+MAX+A220 production back filling last year and this year and a planned production ramp by both Airbus and Boeing.
The question is predicting what fraction of longhaul demand goes to narrowbody. If traffic is 80% of 2019 at YE 2023 as I estimate (predicted might be a better word), then the widebody capacity will only be 72% of 2019, or short if demand by 8%. Taking the most agressive widebody ramp I can envision (787 to 100/yr as well as A350 100/yr, 777 back to 50/yr, A330 I arbitrarily kept at 24, but I'm not looking for predicting which did what, but rather how many seats), I see 5% could be added per year.
But so many widebodies could return to service if fares justified:
So this is a what if scenario.
A340s, perhaps another 20 to 50 can return.
A330s, I think another 200 (at most) could return
A380: At most another 50, but I would be inclined to max out at 170 return to service
777s, another 200 to 300 could return to service
That is another 14% more of 2019 capacity that could return to service or to 80% of capacity before the 787/A350 production.
With 3% being added just at near idle widebody capacity that either must go up or two lines must shut down...
I see as much as 6% more than is needed in 2023 being available than is needed.
That means 2024 demand can be met.
Which means 2025 is the earliest I see in a widebody production recovery.
It is good to talk numbers and what fraction of the parked could be assumed not to return.