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jco613
Posts: 286
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2016 2:12 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:00 am

[twoid][/twoid]
MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
Assuming the Latin American gateway is done, I would not be shocked if FLL is trimmed to just ATL/BNA/BWI/HOU/DAL and maybe SJU a year or two from now. No need to fly MDW year-round either, that flying can be shifted to MIA. DEN/LAS/PHX can also be shifted to MIA. ISP is a bit of a niche route so if Long Island isn't dropped outright from the WN network I'd expect FLL/PBI-ISP to stay. Same for PVD and BDL. Maybe just fly east of the Mississippi from FLL. Anything west can be shifted to MIA long-term.

I strongly disagree with this. Many of the Midwest-FLL flights are flown without competition and cities like CMH and BUF and even MCI and STL routinely gets 4 flights a day in the winter.

My thought is they are going to pounce on Cuba once it’s reopened. Keep HAV-TPA and 1x HAV-FLL but go all in on the now open slots for HAV-MIA.
Initially though, my guesses are:
4x BWI
2x MDW
2x DAL
1x DEN
2x HOU
1x ISP (if they have any interest, monopoly on route...this could go to STL instead, though)
3x MCO
2x SJU
3x TPA

PSP
6x OAK
3x DEN
3x LAS
3x PHX
1x PDX
1x SEA
2x SMF
 
User avatar
OzarkD9S
Posts: 5734
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2001 2:31 am

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:03 am

dfwjim1 wrote:

And once again FAT gets no love from LUV.


I guess LUV isn't a chubby chaser... ;)
Next up: STL DEN PSP DEN STL
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14636
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:08 am

jco613 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
Assuming the Latin American gateway is done, I would not be shocked if FLL is trimmed to just ATL/BNA/BWI/HOU/DAL and maybe SJU a year or two from now. No need to fly MDW year-round either, that flying can be shifted to MIA. DEN/LAS/PHX can also be shifted to MIA. ISP is a bit of a niche route so if Long Island isn't dropped outright from the WN network I'd expect FLL/PBI-ISP to stay. Same for PVD and BDL. Maybe just fly east of the Mississippi from FLL. Anything west can be shifted to MIA long-term.

I strongly disagree with this. Many of the Midwest-FLL flights are flown without competition and cities like CMH and BUF and even MCI and STL routinely gets 4 flights a day in the winter.

My thought is they are going to pounce on Cuba once it’s reopened. Keep HAV-TPA and 1x HAV-FLL but go all in on the now open slots for HAV-MIA.
Initially though, my guesses are:
4x BWI
2x MDW
2x DAL
1x DEN
2x HOU
1x ISP (if they have any interest, monopoly on route...this could go to STL instead, though)
3x MCO
2x SJU
3x TPA

PSP
6x OAK
3x DEN
3x LAS
3x PHX
1x PDX
1x SEA
2x SMF


Does PSP have two gates for WN? It’s not a huge airport.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
flyfresno
Posts: 1087
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:15 am

uconn99 wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
737max8 wrote:

FAT? gotta be bigger than SAV....i hope


Definitely FAT.


Nope.

2019 Enplanments:

SAV- 1,461,360
MYR- 1,285,200
GSO- 1,076,876
FAT- 966,607
MDT- 746,369
ABE- 434,007
AVP- 288,973


Ah, I was assuming you meant by MSA population.
 
FX1816
Posts: 462
Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2004 8:02 am

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:22 am

Cubsrule wrote:
jco613 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
Assuming the Latin American gateway is done, I would not be shocked if FLL is trimmed to just ATL/BNA/BWI/HOU/DAL and maybe SJU a year or two from now. No need to fly MDW year-round either, that flying can be shifted to MIA. DEN/LAS/PHX can also be shifted to MIA. ISP is a bit of a niche route so if Long Island isn't dropped outright from the WN network I'd expect FLL/PBI-ISP to stay. Same for PVD and BDL. Maybe just fly east of the Mississippi from FLL. Anything west can be shifted to MIA long-term.

I strongly disagree with this. Many of the Midwest-FLL flights are flown without competition and cities like CMH and BUF and even MCI and STL routinely gets 4 flights a day in the winter.

My thought is they are going to pounce on Cuba once it’s reopened. Keep HAV-TPA and 1x HAV-FLL but go all in on the now open slots for HAV-MIA.
Initially though, my guesses are:
4x BWI
2x MDW
2x DAL
1x DEN
2x HOU
1x ISP (if they have any interest, monopoly on route...this could go to STL instead, though)
3x MCO
2x SJU
3x TPA

PSP
6x OAK
3x DEN
3x LAS
3x PHX
1x PDX
1x SEA
2x SMF


Does PSP have two gates for WN? It’s not a huge airport.



Absolutely, it will only be about 6 total flights a day. The regional terminal has been getting worked on for a couple months so it will be open again soon. I can't imagine they would really have a need for 2 gates.
 
Flflyer83
Posts: 97
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:40 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:32 am

jco613 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
Assuming the Latin American gateway is done, I would not be shocked if FLL is trimmed to just ATL/BNA/BWI/HOU/DAL and maybe SJU a year or two from now. No need to fly MDW year-round either, that flying can be shifted to MIA. DEN/LAS/PHX can also be shifted to MIA. ISP is a bit of a niche route so if Long Island isn't dropped outright from the WN network I'd expect FLL/PBI-ISP to stay. Same for PVD and BDL. Maybe just fly east of the Mississippi from FLL. Anything west can be shifted to MIA long-term.

I strongly disagree with this. Many of the Midwest-FLL flights are flown without competition and cities like CMH and BUF and even MCI and STL routinely gets 4 flights a day in the winter.

My thought is they are going to pounce on Cuba once it’s reopened. Keep HAV-TPA and 1x HAV-FLL but go all in on the now open slots for HAV-MIA.
Initially though, my guesses are:
4x BWI
2x MDW
2x DAL
1x DEN
2x HOU
1x ISP (if they have any interest, monopoly on route...this could go to STL instead, though)
3x MCO
2x SJU
3x TPA

PSP
6x OAK
3x DEN
3x LAS
3x PHX
1x PDX
1x SEA
2x SMF


No, no, and no. MIA will have a token presence of ~10-12 flights a day and PSP maybe 6-8.

MIA - ATL/BWI/HOU/DAL/MDW.
PSP - OAK/DEN/PHX
 
OB1504
Posts: 3988
Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2004 5:10 am

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:34 am

MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
Assuming the Latin American gateway is done, I would not be shocked if FLL is trimmed to just ATL/BNA/BWI/HOU/DAL and maybe SJU a year or two from now. No need to fly MDW year-round either, that flying can be shifted to MIA. DEN/LAS/PHX can also be shifted to MIA. ISP is a bit of a niche route so if Long Island isn't dropped outright from the WN network I'd expect FLL/PBI-ISP to stay. Same for PVD and BDL. Maybe just fly east of the Mississippi from FLL. Anything west can be shifted to MIA long-term.


Slow your roll. I expect WN’s presence at MIA to be similar in scope to their operation at PBI and largely serve as an alternate to FLL. There’s no pressing reason for WN to move their entire hub/focus city, and vacating those gates at FLL just makes room for their competitors.
 
HVNandrew
Posts: 552
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 1:05 am

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:49 am

FSDan wrote:
As for PSP, I'd think top candidates for service would be OAK and/or SJC, PHX, and DEN. Maybe MDW in the winter season. I don't know about LAS - that'd be a really short flight, even shorter than OAK-RNO.

It's actually very surprising to me that LAS-PSP is unserved. It may be short as the crow flies, but driving there is no direct way to get between the two; it's either winding, desolate desert roads for a portion, or staying on the freeway but having to drive out of the way through San Bernardino, and both options are over 4 hours without traffic. A flight would be much quicker; I'm surprised nobody stepped in after Skywest pulled the route a few years ago.

That said, I don't think it's a route that would be a fit for WN.
Last edited by HVNandrew on Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26288
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:50 am

jco613 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:

My thought is they are going to pounce on Cuba once it’s reopened. Keep HAV-TPA and 1x HAV-FLL but go all in on the now open slots for HAV-MIA.
Initially though, my guesses are:

1x ISP (if they have any interest, monopoly on route...this could go to STL instead, though)


Frontier flies Miami-Islip daily.
a.
 
FX1816
Posts: 462
Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2004 8:02 am

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:53 am

HVNandrew wrote:
FSDan wrote:
As for PSP, I'd think top candidates for service would be OAK and/or SJC, PHX, and DEN. Maybe MDW in the winter season. I don't know about LAS - that'd be a really short flight, even shorter than OAK-RNO.

It's actually very surprising to me that LAS-PSP is unserved. It may be short as the crow flies, but driving there is no direct way to get between the two; it's either winding, desolate desert roads for a portion, or staying on the freeway but having to drive out of the way through San Bernardino, and both options are over 4 hours without traffic. A flight would be much quicker; I'm surprised nobody stepped in after Skywest pulled the route a few years ago.

That said, I don't think it's a route that would be a fit for WN.



I'm kind of surprised that JSX hasn't, even maybe just 1 or 2 times a day. However with all of the casinos in the area maybe that doesn't help LAS.
 
jco613
Posts: 286
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2016 2:12 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 2:07 am

MAH4546 wrote:
jco613 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:

My thought is they are going to pounce on Cuba once it’s reopened. Keep HAV-TPA and 1x HAV-FLL but go all in on the now open slots for HAV-MIA.
Initially though, my guesses are:

1x ISP (if they have any interest, monopoly on route...this could go to STL instead, though)


Frontier flies Miami-Islip daily.

As I said, nobody flies the route ;)

I do agree I was a Bit ambitious with PSP, but my 20 flights at MIA is token service. You need multiple flights to BWI and DAL/HOU from there and MCO/TPA have historically served as intra-state starts. I didn’t even include ATL which has service to every Florida city outside the panhandle. I could see 20 flights to start and those are just touching the larger destinations honestly.

* forgot ECP and PNS were in Florida!
Last edited by jco613 on Fri Sep 04, 2020 2:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5287
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 2:13 am

OAK hasn't had PSP service in a long time. I think AS was the last airline to fly the OAK-PSP route ions ago.
 
Judge1310
Posts: 415
Joined: Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:55 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 2:23 am

enilria wrote:
doug wrote:
Ok I think Miami will add BWI,MDW,ATL and DAL for starters

I wonder if this is more like B6 moving LGB to LAX, but with FLL? Not that they would leave FLL, but perhaps this is more than it appears.


WN is not leaving FLL, this is purely about striking whilst the iron is hot and gaining market share when it would have been otherwise a battle to do so previously. End of story. Full stop.
 
Iggy500
Posts: 86
Joined: Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:40 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 2:32 am

OB1504 wrote:
MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
Assuming the Latin American gateway is done, I would not be shocked if FLL is trimmed to just ATL/BNA/BWI/HOU/DAL and maybe SJU a year or two from now. No need to fly MDW year-round either, that flying can be shifted to MIA. DEN/LAS/PHX can also be shifted to MIA. ISP is a bit of a niche route so if Long Island isn't dropped outright from the WN network I'd expect FLL/PBI-ISP to stay. Same for PVD and BDL. Maybe just fly east of the Mississippi from FLL. Anything west can be shifted to MIA long-term.


Slow your roll. I expect WN’s presence at MIA to be similar in scope to their operation at PBI and largely serve as an alternate to FLL. There’s no pressing reason for WN to move their entire hub/focus city, and vacating those gates at FLL just makes room for their competitors.

I don't know if WN will be down to at least 5 cities from FLL, but I believe that WN's retreat there will continue. Additionally, we've been seeing airlines such as BA and F9 abandoning FLL to have a bigger presence in MIA.

What I'm trying to say is that I see the point that MIAFLLPBIFlyer is trying to make. It is possible for WN to end up like F9 and have a larger presence in MIA.
Last edited by Iggy500 on Fri Sep 04, 2020 2:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
cynlb
Posts: 78
Joined: Sat Jan 27, 2018 3:49 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 2:32 am

PSP does not make any sense to me. It is mostly a seasonal destination (late Fall until early Spring) also ONT is about 70 miles away. FAT would have made more sense.
 
jco613
Posts: 286
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2016 2:12 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 2:37 am

Iggy500 wrote:
OB1504 wrote:
MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
Assuming the Latin American gateway is done, I would not be shocked if FLL is trimmed to just ATL/BNA/BWI/HOU/DAL and maybe SJU a year or two from now. No need to fly MDW year-round either, that flying can be shifted to MIA. DEN/LAS/PHX can also be shifted to MIA. ISP is a bit of a niche route so if Long Island isn't dropped outright from the WN network I'd expect FLL/PBI-ISP to stay. Same for PVD and BDL. Maybe just fly east of the Mississippi from FLL. Anything west can be shifted to MIA long-term.


Slow your roll. I expect WN’s presence at MIA to be similar in scope to their operation at PBI and largely serve as an alternate to FLL. There’s no pressing reason for WN to move their entire hub/focus city, and vacating those gates at FLL just makes room for their competitors.


I don't know if WN will be down to at least 5 cities from FLL, but I believe that WN's retreat there will continue. Additionally, we've been seeing airlines such as BA and F9 abandoning FLL to have a bigger presence in MIA.

What I'm trying to say is that I see the point that MIAFLLPBIFlyer is trying to make. It is possible for WN to end up like F9 and have a larger presence in MIA.

No. I think this is far from the truth. WN has been paring down FLL due to COVID. The general trend has still been the rise of flights in the winter. They paid an arm and a leg for the new concourse A. Thu can’t fly international from FLL right now, they’d just lose money. But FLL is more than in their plans.

Where are all the “MIA is a different market than FLL” people? Or are those the same people who claim that this is WN attempting to pull out of FLL?

To put it in prospective, WN is #2 behind B6 at FLL. WN had the most flights at FLL during the pandemic height. WN is not going anywhere. End of story.
 
Corpsnerd09
Posts: 583
Joined: Tue Mar 30, 2004 2:05 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 2:46 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
Corpsnerd09 wrote:
Anyone wonder how this will affect DL's attempts to grow MIA with the LA deal? Now with more competition it'll be harder to capture the local traffic between AA's name recognition, F9s cheap fares and WN's popularity already in the metro area and niche market. Sounds like DL may have a tougher time than first imagined a year ago.


Nothing is the same it was a year ago. WN wouldn't be competing to LATAM's destinations, anyway.


But they would be competing for the domestic connections Delta wants to add.
 
evank516
Posts: 2174
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 2:49 am

PSP doesn’t surprise me one bit. MIA? A little. MIA will probably see BWI, MDW, BNA, and some northeast cities like ISP, PVD/BOS, and BDL as well once travel restrictions ease.
 
canyonblue17
Posts: 704
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2008 12:22 am

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 3:26 am

I didn’t see it - did anyone mention WN doesn’t serve ORD? That’s a pretty big airport compared to FAT or SAV?
negative ghostrider the pattern is full
 
N292UX
Posts: 584
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2017 7:08 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 3:30 am

canyonblue17 wrote:
I didn’t see it - did anyone mention WN doesn’t serve ORD? That’s a pretty big airport compared to FAT or SAV?

They also don't serve DFW, JFK, IAH, and now EWR, too.
 
USAirALB
Posts: 2346
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 4:46 am

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:05 am

With the start of service to PSP and MIA, and the announcement of HDN, I wonder if WN would be willing to give EYW another go. Still puzzling to me that they pulled out considering that FL made it work with their de-rated engines on the 73G, and both AA/DL have been able to make mainline work.
Last edited by USAirALB on Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
RJ85, F70, E135, E140, E145, E70, E75, E90, CR2, CR7, CR9, 717, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 744ER, 752, 753, 762, 772, 77E, 77W, 789, 319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 343, 359, 388
 
ericm2031
Posts: 1416
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 8:46 am

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:09 am

FX1816 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
jco613 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
I strongly disagree with this. Many of the Midwest-FLL flights are flown without competition and cities like CMH and BUF and even MCI and STL routinely gets 4 flights a day in the winter.

My thought is they are going to pounce on Cuba once it’s reopened. Keep HAV-TPA and 1x HAV-FLL but go all in on the now open slots for HAV-MIA.
Initially though, my guesses are:
4x BWI
2x MDW
2x DAL
1x DEN
2x HOU
1x ISP (if they have any interest, monopoly on route...this could go to STL instead, though)
3x MCO
2x SJU
3x TPA

PSP
6x OAK
3x DEN
3x LAS
3x PHX
1x PDX
1x SEA
2x SMF


Does PSP have two gates for WN? It’s not a huge airport.



Absolutely, it will only be about 6 total flights a day. The regional terminal has been getting worked on for a couple months so it will be open again soon. I can't imagine they would really have a need for 2 gates.


Pre-COVID I thought the Sonny Bono Concourse was already operating at max capacity during peak season (obviously it probably won't be this season)? I thought most of the work being done right now was being done on the ticketing building, not the regional concourse? It's been awhile since I've been there though.
 
User avatar
September11
Posts: 3672
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Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:30 am

This announcement comes after the recent departure of PSP executive aviation director
Airliners.net of the Future
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 3895
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:17 am

WN is not moving their international flights from FLL to MIA. That makes no sense. WN basically flies to a bunch of beach markets and they need the domestic feed that FLL has to make it work. WN has already tried and failed miserably with the VFR markets that MIA may have an advantage with. Southwest's direct-sale business model does not work in these markets.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26288
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:42 am

usflyer msp wrote:
WN is not moving their international flights from FLL to MIA. That makes no sense. WN basically flies to a bunch of beach markets and they need the domestic feed that FLL has to make it work. WN has already tried and failed miserably with the VFR markets that MIA may have an advantage with. Southwest's direct-sale business model does not work in these markets.


You don’t need domestic feed to make beach markets work from South Florida. Half of the traffic from many Major Caribbean markets is just to Miami and New York. And the more niche you get the less reliant on feed.
a.
 
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KLMatSJC
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Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:55 am

ericm2031 wrote:
Pre-COVID I thought the Sonny Bono Concourse was already operating at max capacity during peak season (obviously it probably won't be this season)? I thought most of the work being done right now was being done on the ticketing building, not the regional concourse? It's been awhile since I've been there though.

Is there anything necessarily preventing WN from using the regional concourse? Obviously not a ton of space for seating, but you should be able to fit a couple of 737s there.
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airplaneboy
Posts: 721
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 11:59 am

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 10:10 am

MAH4546 wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
WN is not moving their international flights from FLL to MIA. That makes no sense. WN basically flies to a bunch of beach markets and they need the domestic feed that FLL has to make it work. WN has already tried and failed miserably with the VFR markets that MIA may have an advantage with. Southwest's direct-sale business model does not work in these markets.


You don’t need domestic feed to make beach markets work from South Florida. Half of the traffic from many Major Caribbean markets is just to Miami and New York. And the more niche you get the less reliant on feed.


Competing against B6 and NK, which have better Northeast-S. Florida/Caribbean point of sale yields than WN - WN needs to have domestic feed at FLL to compete in S. Florida - Caribbean markets. Much of the domestic feed is from Heartland/midwestern markets (MCI, STL, BNA, IND, CMH, etc.) where WN dominates and B6 and NK have little to no presence. Without those connections, WN would have struggled to fill their international flights from FLL. Going into MIA is not about moving their FLL Caribbean ops. It’s more about having a greater South Florida presence and taking advantage of a weaker post-covid AA. Much like CA where WN dominates in most markets, capturing a greater piece of the Florida pie entails serving all major airports (of which MIA was the largest one missing from their network).
 
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OzarkD9S
Posts: 5734
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2001 2:31 am

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 10:27 am

KLMatSJC wrote:

ericm2031 wrote:

Pre-COVID I thought the Sonny Bono Concourse was already operating at max capacity during peak season (obviously it probably won't be this season)? I thought most of the work being done right now was being done on the ticketing building, not the regional concourse? It's been awhile since I've been there though.


Is there anything necessarily preventing WN from using the regional concourse? Obviously not a ton of space for seating, but you should be able to fit a couple of 737s there.


I've used both concourses and the regional concourse is basically a large box with a small concession area and some restrooms. Seating for up to two 737s shouldn't be an issue as a lot of the regional flights that used to be there are gone now. You could probably even put a couple of ground level jet bridges in there if needed.
Next up: STL DEN PSP DEN STL
 
tphuang
Posts: 5478
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Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 12:06 pm

jco613 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
Assuming the Latin American gateway is done, I would not be shocked if FLL is trimmed to just ATL/BNA/BWI/HOU/DAL and maybe SJU a year or two from now. No need to fly MDW year-round either, that flying can be shifted to MIA. DEN/LAS/PHX can also be shifted to MIA. ISP is a bit of a niche route so if Long Island isn't dropped outright from the WN network I'd expect FLL/PBI-ISP to stay. Same for PVD and BDL. Maybe just fly east of the Mississippi from FLL. Anything west can be shifted to MIA long-term.

I strongly disagree with this. Many of the Midwest-FLL flights are flown without competition and cities like CMH and BUF and even MCI and STL routinely gets 4 flights a day in the winter.

My thought is they are going to pounce on Cuba once it’s reopened. Keep HAV-TPA and 1x HAV-FLL but go all in on the now open slots for HAV-MIA.
Initially though, my guesses are:
4x BWI
2x MDW
2x DAL
1x DEN
2x HOU
1x ISP (if they have any interest, monopoly on route...this could go to STL instead, though)
3x MCO
2x SJU
3x TPA

PSP
6x OAK
3x DEN
3x LAS
3x PHX
1x PDX
1x SEA
2x SMF

there is no way they will try this kind of schedule from PSP or MIA. Too much capacity. MIA may get there after a while, but PSP no shot. May 3x OAK, 1x DEN and 2x PHX.

central florida to south florida stuff relies on connection. Without having FLL/MIA as latam gateway, MCO/TPA are shot.

Judge1310 wrote:
enilria wrote:
doug wrote:
Ok I think Miami will add BWI,MDW,ATL and DAL for starters

I wonder if this is more like B6 moving LGB to LAX, but with FLL? Not that they would leave FLL, but perhaps this is more than it appears.


WN is not leaving FLL, this is purely about striking whilst the iron is hot and gaining market share when it would have been otherwise a battle to do so previously. End of story. Full stop.

I guess you haven't caught onto how much WN is cutting from FLL? It's not leaving FLL, but FLL has become just another Florida dot.

airplaneboy wrote:
Competing against B6 and NK, which have better Northeast-S. Florida/Caribbean point of sale yields than WN - WN needs to have domestic feed at FLL to compete in S. Florida - Caribbean markets. Much of the domestic feed is from Heartland/midwestern markets (MCI, STL, BNA, IND, CMH, etc.) where WN dominates and B6 and NK have little to no presence. Without those connections, WN would have struggled to fill their international flights from FLL. Going into MIA is not about moving their FLL Caribbean ops. It’s more about having a greater South Florida presence and taking advantage of a weaker post-covid AA. Much like CA where WN dominates in most markets, capturing a greater piece of the Florida pie entails serving all major airports (of which MIA was the largest one missing from their network).

you just spelt out why FLL was a bad idea for WN to begin with and why they have cut there more than anywhere else during COVID.

NK is going to get really large in FLL. It's just a matter of time before NK over-runs WN in some of the midwestern markets to FLL. WN's international experiment at FLL simply hasn't worked. HOU is the way to go for them.
 
flyfresno
Posts: 1087
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 12:13 pm

cynlb wrote:
PSP does not make any sense to me. It is mostly a seasonal destination (late Fall until early Spring) also ONT is about 70 miles away. FAT would have made more sense.


It makes sense in the winter. PSP is one of the most (if not the most) highly seasonal airports in the nation. Their January 2019 enplanements were almost 3X their July 2019 enplanements. I could see WN pulling back substantially in the summer (some airlines leave entirely until fall).
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 5438
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Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 12:42 pm

tphuang wrote:
Judge1310 wrote:
enilria wrote:
I wonder if this is more like B6 moving LGB to LAX, but with FLL? Not that they would leave FLL, but perhaps this is more than it appears.


WN is not leaving FLL, this is purely about striking whilst the iron is hot and gaining market share when it would have been otherwise a battle to do so previously. End of story. Full stop.

I guess you haven't caught onto how much WN is cutting from FLL? It's not leaving FLL, but FLL has become just another Florida dot.


No it hasn't WN has up to 100 departures a day from FLL next spring.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
tphuang
Posts: 5478
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 12:48 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Judge1310 wrote:

WN is not leaving FLL, this is purely about striking whilst the iron is hot and gaining market share when it would have been otherwise a battle to do so previously. End of story. Full stop.

I guess you haven't caught onto how much WN is cutting from FLL? It's not leaving FLL, but FLL has become just another Florida dot.


No it hasn't WN has up to 100 departures a day from FLL next spring.


right, because preliminary schedule for spring is actually going to run.
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 5438
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Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:03 pm

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:

I guess you haven't caught onto how much WN is cutting from FLL? It's not leaving FLL, but FLL has become just another Florida dot.


No it hasn't WN has up to 100 departures a day from FLL next spring.


right, because preliminary schedule for spring is actually going to run.


That's how you tell WN's intentions for the future, you are using their current COVID schedule to say that since they have cut a lot of FLL during COVID they must want to give up on FLL (which is wrong for a number of reasons).
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
Jshank83
Posts: 3598
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:13 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

No it hasn't WN has up to 100 departures a day from FLL next spring.


right, because preliminary schedule for spring is actually going to run.


That's how you tell WN's intentions for the future, you are using their current COVID schedule to say that since they have cut a lot of FLL during COVID they must want to give up on FLL (which is wrong for a number of reasons).


2nd this. If going off COVID schedules was the case you would say they must be cutting everyone except DEN. With the cut back in intl flights at the moment, one of FLL main uses, then of course they are going to have a smaller schedule right now. Once it comes back FLL will be back to normal. I would guess MIA might get more than SFO/IAD because of beach location but I wouldn't be surprised it is treated like those while FLL is more like OAK/BWI (not as big but you get the point).
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 755
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:17 pm

jfk777 wrote:
Southwest in Miami, I thought I would never live to see the day. FLL was there "Big" South Florida airport. Always expected Jetblue at MIA before Southwest. Midway, BWI, Houston and Love Field would be my picks.


Agreed. I thought B6 might eventually get on some of the Central and SA action in MIA. Getting to FLL from Southern Miami Dade is a nightmare.

I'll say this. This certainly didn't make Doug Parker's day. Ultimately WN could likely eat AA's lunch at MIA on key Caribbean, Central America and Northern SA destinations (that can be reached with a 737-800 Max). What concourse will WN operate out of?
 
tphuang
Posts: 5478
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Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:19 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

No it hasn't WN has up to 100 departures a day from FLL next spring.


right, because preliminary schedule for spring is actually going to run.


That's how you tell WN's intentions for the future, you are using their current COVID schedule to say that since they have cut a lot of FLL during COVID they must want to give up on FLL (which is wrong for a number of reasons).


Well for the December schedule, they definitely cut more routes from FLL than anywhere else in their "full schedule"
https://thepointsguy.com/news/southwest ... -schedule/

The problem for WN in FLL is pretty obvious. It's hard to have pricing power in a market when you can't make the top markets work.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26288
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:26 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Southwest ion Miami, I thought I would never live to see the day. FLL was there "Big" South Florida airport. Always expected Jetblue at MIA before Southwest. Midway, BWI, Houston and Love Field would be my picks.


Agreed. I thought B6 might eventually get on some of the Central and SA action in MIA. Getting to FLL from Southern Miami Dade is a nightmare.

I'll say this. This certainly didn't make Doug Parker's day. Ultimately WN could likely eat AA's lunch at MIA on key Caribbean, Central America and Northern SA destinations (that can be reached with a 737-800 Max). What concourse will WN operate out of?


Laughable. Yes, Southwest will be a pain, but AA will have such a massive advantage on Latin America POS that Southwest will come nowhere near being able to “eat AA’s lunch.” The fact that Southwest still doesn’t sell tickets on third party GDS - which is pretty much a necessity to succeed in non-leisure LatAm/Caribbean - already ensures it won’t. It’s why Southwest was promptly forced out of Mexico City, which was a massive failure for the airline. Southwest has never been able to make an international destination work that doesn’t rely on U.S. origin traffic.
a.
 
MIAFLLPBIFlyer
Posts: 510
Joined: Mon Jul 03, 2017 8:25 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:28 pm

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:

right, because preliminary schedule for spring is actually going to run.


That's how you tell WN's intentions for the future, you are using their current COVID schedule to say that since they have cut a lot of FLL during COVID they must want to give up on FLL (which is wrong for a number of reasons).


Well for the December schedule, they definitely cut more routes from FLL than anywhere else in their "full schedule"
https://thepointsguy.com/news/southwest ... -schedule/

The problem for WN in FLL is pretty obvious. It's hard to have pricing power in a market when you can't make the top markets work.


I'd also throw in something else for discussion. The negative stigma NK once had down here has slowly withered away. When WN made their FLL plans, NK was seen as a bottom-feeder airline and the competition was limited to B6 for the types of passengers WN generally attracts - yes certainly some overlap everywhere but more or less NK was a third player and one people actively sought to avoid.

That's not the case anymore. NK now has a pretty decent rep for customer service, new planes to boot and in some cases even some civic pride because they are local.

Meanwhile B6 I sense has attracted some higher-end fliers even from Dade County to drive to FLL - less price conscious than service conscious.

I realize this announcement says nothing about WN pulling back from FLL, but all signs since COVID-19 to me point to a slow reduction and now MIA gaining. PBI will remain about the same.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 3895
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:31 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Southwest in Miami, I thought I would never live to see the day. FLL was there "Big" South Florida airport. Always expected Jetblue at MIA before Southwest. Midway, BWI, Houston and Love Field would be my picks.


Agreed. I thought B6 might eventually get on some of the Central and SA action in MIA. Getting to FLL from Southern Miami Dade is a nightmare.

I'll say this. This certainly didn't make Doug Parker's day. Ultimately WN could likely eat AA's lunch at MIA on key Caribbean, Central America and Northern SA destinations (that can be reached with a 737-800 Max). What concourse will WN operate out of?


No one is afraid of Southwest anymore. Their coats are not as low as they once we're and the majors have figured out ways to defeat them. History has already shown that WN does not do well in "ethnic" international markets. Flights to the major short-haul international destinations are already cheap due to the US and foreign ULCC's. WN would be the one struggling to compete.
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 5438
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Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:32 pm

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:

right, because preliminary schedule for spring is actually going to run.


That's how you tell WN's intentions for the future, you are using their current COVID schedule to say that since they have cut a lot of FLL during COVID they must want to give up on FLL (which is wrong for a number of reasons).


Well for the December schedule, they definitely cut more routes from FLL than anywhere else in their "full schedule"
https://thepointsguy.com/news/southwest ... -schedule/

The problem for WN in FLL is pretty obvious. It's hard to have pricing power in a market when you can't make the top markets work.


C'mon now...look where they cut....the only top market on there is LAS & the rest of those are almost all sat-only routes. International routes were cut for obvious reasons.

"The city most affected by Southwest’s route cuts is Fort Lauderdale (FLL). The airline will end all but two international routes — to Cancun (CUN) and Montego Bay (MBJ) — as well as nonstop service to Birmingham (BHM), Boston (BOS), Cleveland (CLE), Jacksonville (JAX), Hartford (BDL), Las Vegas (LAS), Long Island MacArthur (ISP) and Louisville (SDF)."
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
SWADawg
Posts: 601
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 6:43 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:32 pm

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:

right, because preliminary schedule for spring is actually going to run.


That's how you tell WN's intentions for the future, you are using their current COVID schedule to say that since they have cut a lot of FLL during COVID they must want to give up on FLL (which is wrong for a number of reasons).


Well for the December schedule, they definitely cut more routes from FLL than anywhere else in their "full schedule"
https://thepointsguy.com/news/southwest ... -schedule/

The problem for WN in FLL is pretty obvious. It's hard to have pricing power in a market when you can't make the top markets work.

You are partially right about FLL. I will say that I think there may be some kind of gentleman’s agreement with B6 behind the scenes. Rumor only is that WN may agree to sell the International Terminal that they just built at FLL to B6 and pull FLL down to a domestic only station while B6 abandons LGB and opens that market up to WN. MIA in that scenario would then eventually become WN’s Airport of choice for the Caribbean and Central/South American schedule and become WN’s dominant S. Florida Airport to the Americas. Time will tell if that’s the strategy they go with or not.
My posts are my opinion only and do not reflect the views of Southwest Airlines
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26288
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:35 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

That's how you tell WN's intentions for the future, you are using their current COVID schedule to say that since they have cut a lot of FLL during COVID they must want to give up on FLL (which is wrong for a number of reasons).


Well for the December schedule, they definitely cut more routes from FLL than anywhere else in their "full schedule"
https://thepointsguy.com/news/southwest ... -schedule/

The problem for WN in FLL is pretty obvious. It's hard to have pricing power in a market when you can't make the top markets work.


C'mon now...look where they cut....the only top market on there is LAS & the rest of those are almost all sat-only routes. International routes were cut for obvious reasons.

"The city most affected by Southwest’s route cuts is Fort Lauderdale (FLL). The airline will end all but two international routes — to Cancun (CUN) and Montego Bay (MBJ) — as well as nonstop service to Birmingham (BHM), Boston (BOS), Cleveland (CLE), Jacksonville (JAX), Hartford (BDL), Las Vegas (LAS), Long Island MacArthur (ISP) and Louisville (SDF)."


That poster also uses hyperbole often and not facts. That article is old. Since it was published so far Southwest has added back Hartford, Islip, Louisville, Montego Bay and San Juan. And more will be added back over the next few months no doubt.
a.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26288
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:37 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

That's how you tell WN's intentions for the future, you are using their current COVID schedule to say that since they have cut a lot of FLL during COVID they must want to give up on FLL (which is wrong for a number of reasons).


Well for the December schedule, they definitely cut more routes from FLL than anywhere else in their "full schedule"
https://thepointsguy.com/news/southwest ... -schedule/

The problem for WN in FLL is pretty obvious. It's hard to have pricing power in a market when you can't make the top markets work.


C'mon now...look where they cut....the only top market on there is LAS & the rest of those are almost all sat-only routes. International routes were cut for obvious reasons.

"The city most affected by Southwest’s route cuts is Fort Lauderdale (FLL). The airline will end all but two international routes — to Cancun (CUN) and Montego Bay (MBJ) — as well as nonstop service to Birmingham (BHM), Boston (BOS), Cleveland (CLE), Jacksonville (JAX), Hartford (BDL), Las Vegas (LAS), Long Island MacArthur (ISP) and Louisville (SDF)."


That poster also uses hyperbole often and not facts. That article is old. Since it was published so far Southwest has added back Hartford, Islip, Louisville, Montego Bay and San Juan. And more will be added back over the next few months no doubt.
a.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8529
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:43 pm

flyfresno wrote:
cynlb wrote:
PSP does not make any sense to me. It is mostly a seasonal destination (late Fall until early Spring) also ONT is about 70 miles away. FAT would have made more sense.


It makes sense in the winter. PSP is one of the most (if not the most) highly seasonal airports in the nation. Their January 2019 enplanements were almost 3X their July 2019 enplanements. I could see WN pulling back substantially in the summer (some airlines leave entirely until fall).


PSP, while seasonal, must get very good yields: with WN added it sees 8 of the U.S. big 10 (all except Spirit and Hawaiian) plus AC and WestJet. Airports many times PSP's size can't claim that.
 
planecane
Posts: 1585
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:43 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
Assuming the Latin American gateway is done, I would not be shocked if FLL is trimmed to just ATL/BNA/BWI/HOU/DAL and maybe SJU a year or two from now. No need to fly MDW year-round either, that flying can be shifted to MIA. DEN/LAS/PHX can also be shifted to MIA. ISP is a bit of a niche route so if Long Island isn't dropped outright from the WN network I'd expect FLL/PBI-ISP to stay. Same for PVD and BDL. Maybe just fly east of the Mississippi from FLL. Anything west can be shifted to MIA long-term.


Why do you think FLL is so inferior an airport for O&D traffic that most everything should be moved to MIA?


Very good question. Those of us that live closer to FLL (either distance or driving time) would rather fly out of there. I only fly out of MIA if there is a non-stop available that doesn't exist out of FLL or has terrible flight times like FLL-LAS. It would take a greatly lower fare for me to want to go down to MIA for a similar itinerary.

The opposite would probably be true for people that live in Hialeah and south.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1103
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:45 pm

SWADawg wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

That's how you tell WN's intentions for the future, you are using their current COVID schedule to say that since they have cut a lot of FLL during COVID they must want to give up on FLL (which is wrong for a number of reasons).


Well for the December schedule, they definitely cut more routes from FLL than anywhere else in their "full schedule"
https://thepointsguy.com/news/southwest ... -schedule/

The problem for WN in FLL is pretty obvious. It's hard to have pricing power in a market when you can't make the top markets work.

You are partially right about FLL. I will say that I think there may be some kind of gentleman’s agreement with B6 behind the scenes. Rumor only is that WN may agree to sell the International Terminal that they just built at FLL to B6 and pull FLL down to a domestic only station while B6 abandons LGB and opens that market up to WN. MIA in that scenario would then eventually become WN’s Airport of choice for the Caribbean and Central/South American schedule and become WN’s dominant S. Florida Airport to the Americas. Time will tell if that’s the strategy they go with or not.

Why on earth would WN do that? Why would they hand a hub (FLL of all places) to a competitor and get nothing in return? B6 was leaving LGB anyway.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 755
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:47 pm

Never underestimate WN's ability to adapt. Over the years people have poked and made fun of WN for it's perceived "shortcomings" and supposedly inability to compete against the legacy airlines. I've heard it all. WN doesn't have first class. WN doesn't do seat assignments. WN doesn't have lounges. WN doesn't appeal to business flyers. WN tries to be too quirky. WN doesn't have the FF base. FF isn't going to appeal to a certain type of "group."

Yet WN prevails and has become the most successful airline in aviation history. I know many Neters and FTers think WN is run by a bunch of redneck yahoos but I assure you it's not. WN will be more than a minor pain to AA long term at MIA.
 
SWADawg
Posts: 601
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 6:43 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 2:02 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
SWADawg wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Well for the December schedule, they definitely cut more routes from FLL than anywhere else in their "full schedule"
https://thepointsguy.com/news/southwest ... -schedule/

The problem for WN in FLL is pretty obvious. It's hard to have pricing power in a market when you can't make the top markets work.

You are partially right about FLL. I will say that I think there may be some kind of gentleman’s agreement with B6 behind the scenes. Rumor only is that WN may agree to sell the International Terminal that they just built at FLL to B6 and pull FLL down to a domestic only station while B6 abandons LGB and opens that market up to WN. MIA in that scenario would then eventually become WN’s Airport of choice for the Caribbean and Central/South American schedule and become WN’s dominant S. Florida Airport to the Americas. Time will tell if that’s the strategy they go with or not.

Why on earth would WN do that? Why would they hand a hub (FLL of all places) to a competitor and get nothing in return? B6 was leaving LGB anyway.

You missed the part where I said that it’s only a rumor, and that the speculation was that B6 would PAY WN for the Terminal as in WN would be selling it to B6 for CASH. B6 gains a better facility than they currently have at FLL and WN moves their International ops down the road to MIA where the yields are perceived to be better. It’s no different than B6 bailing on LGB and consolidating their ops at LAX.
My posts are my opinion only and do not reflect the views of Southwest Airlines
 
tphuang
Posts: 5478
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 2:03 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
That poster also uses hyperbole often and not facts. That article is old. Since it was published so far Southwest has added back Hartford, Islip, Louisville, Montego Bay and San Juan. And more will be added back over the next few months no doubt.


right, attacking me personally is always the way to go here.

It's a complete fiction that WN has turned BDL and ISP into a winter season only station from FLL. It's a complete fiction that WN has the fewest international destination of any major airline in south Florida. It's a complete fiction that WN has minimal presence to NYC/Boston/LA from FLL. Southwest has reduced full year capacity out of FLL when NK has exploded at the same time. Battling B6 and NK for yield at FLL has been tough.

When was the last time WN added an international destination out of FLL? Wasn't this suppose to be their latam gateway?
 
Flflyer83
Posts: 97
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:40 pm

Re: Southwest launch service to Miami & Palm Springs

Fri Sep 04, 2020 2:19 pm

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:

I guess you haven't caught onto how much WN is cutting from FLL? It's not leaving FLL, but FLL has become just another Florida dot.


No it hasn't WN has up to 100 departures a day from FLL next spring.


right, because preliminary schedule for spring is actually going to run.


But it is for your darling B6? Or NK for that matter? All of the airlines are going to have room to expand in FLL soon if they want to with the demise of B6 due to their gross mismanagement.

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