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TonyClifton
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:52 pm

I’d expect more A220 orders. It’s gone from 75, to 90, and now 95 since the initial order. I know an A220-500 is a different world, but post 2025 they’d be in a good place to use it as an A320/738 replacement.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:58 pm

NWAESC wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
HVNandrew wrote:
The 717 fills a niche role in the DL network; there are going to be a lot of small and mid-sized markets in the southeast, northeast and midwest that will lose mainline service. They may have similar capacity, but the A220 isn't meant for the same missions.


That's a wholly artificial constraint you're imposing. A220s don't do the short routes today because DL has 717s for that; A220s do the long, thin routes because 717s lack the range.


+1

I don't think that the 717's going away sentences a station to all CRJ's all the time. DL is far too neurotic precise with their network planning. Depending on demand recovery, in any given market you could see these replaced with A220's, E75's, A319's or any combo of the above.

You make a good point. I could see DL going to the used aircraft market for the replacement. In the lease values thread, new aircraft lost 10% of value, used 30%. It could be DL did the math and realizes used A319s (going at scrap and actually driving down scrap pricing), A320s (down about 30% at 10 years of use), 738s (also down, in particular for aged models), or other types.

I hope for new A220s, MAX, or NEOs. However, DL has a habit of finding the great used values.

There are 1300 used aircraft being returned to leasors, planned pre-Covid19, in 2021. There are also over a thousand new build aircraft waiting to enter service (include all the MAXes, so a chunk are return to service). We're discussing in this thread. In no way can I beleive used aircraft values have reached a bottom. Mostly as there are so few transactions.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1451221&start=150

I think any airline buying aircraft will take a good look at the used market 2021-2025 (and on, but that is the timeframe I see of incredible deals).

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
amcnd
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:08 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
CR2 - I personally don't have the hate against this type that so many do, but I get it. I have no issue with them on the short flights into small markets, granted that I was used to flying SF3 and/or the "Bro into back in the day. (Full disclosure - was a fan of turboprops, thought they were pretty cool). Granted, back in the day flew a CR2 on SLC-MSP next to a dude who was like 6'5 with football lineman shoulders - not cool. Anyways, this fleet was approaching its twilight anyways. This obviously applies to the DL-owned CR2s which are operated by Endeavor (9E). Unclear exactly if this impacts the Skywest (OO) owned CR2s that primarily do EAS-flying. I think the Skywest at-risk flying was terminated with Covid and that has reverted to flying under capacity purchase agreements. Some of the flying will simply go to larger 2-class RJs, the EAS stuff will stay under EAS contracts maybe still with CR2s, but there could be some small market fall-out. 50-seat flying is in its twilight anyways at all of the US3.



Im pretty sure when they say “200’s leaving by 2023” that means CPA 200’s. Prorate was never counted in that. From my intel OO will still serve 200’s on there EAS/At risk/pro rate markets”.... on a side not using “Dual class” RJ’s were not permitted on “pro rate/EAS”.. (the exception was grayed for social distancing upgaging of equipment during COVID)
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 282
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:20 pm

lightsaber wrote:
A more reputable link:
https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/del ... 0September.

I've learned not to quote SimpleFlying. I've been rightfully burned quoting them here on a.net as they are *not* a dependable source.
Delta to retire aircraft and take up to $2.5b charge

...

Delta says that it “concluded that the carrying value of these aircraft was no longer recoverable when compared to their estimated remaining future cash flows”. As a result, the airline will take a non-cash impairment charge of up to $2.5 billion during the current third quarter, which ends next week.

“Delta may continue to consider further opportunities for early aircraft retirements in an effort to modernize and simplify its fleet,” the airline says in the filing.


So Delta has simplified the fleet by planning or actually removing the:
MD-88
MD-90
B717
763
772
77L

It is a good thing they didn't over-invest.

dstblj52 wrote:
Nicoeddf wrote:

A mix order for a 321neo variant is already highly likely. Boeing coming up with something better in the next two years would mean EIS end of the decade.

The thing that killed a Delta max deal last time was CFM wasn't willing to give techops an engine shop for the LEAP series so we might get see Delta ordering the max if that changes, especially given deltas love affair with absolute optimization of capacity route by route hour by hour.

I believe Pratt won the A321NEO order on the over-haul business.
Due to the need for a MAX sale, I'm betting CFM would offer the LEAP service, including the ability to service the A32xNEO family LEAP-1A as well as the -1B.

Delta is very unlikely to be a launch customer for something new and Boeing isn't likely to have the funds to invest in a new project anyway. I could see a -9 or -10 MAX order for DL. Not in 2020, but once DL sees the floor of this brutal market.

For the 767 replacement, DL would have liked the NMA... I doubt that would happen, but I cannot 100% say it won't.


MIflyer12 wrote:
HVNandrew wrote:
The 717 fills a niche role in the DL network; there are going to be a lot of small and mid-sized markets in the southeast, northeast and midwest that will lose mainline service. They may have similar capacity, but the A220 isn't meant for the same missions.


That's a wholly artificial constraint you're imposing. A220s don't do the short routes today because DL has 717s for that; A220s do the long, thin routes because 717s lack the range.

To expand (I'm not rebutting):
The A220 is an excellent short haul aircraft . The difference is it saves so much more in fuel on long flights and could open new long thin, it made sense.
I can only hope DL is planning to top off their A220 order. They have many options, so replacement by 2025 is plausible. This will be interesting to follow.

Lightsaber


Regarding your idea about a MAX -9/-10 order, wouldn’t a MAX 8 make more sense? Seems like with all their new A321s, A321NEOs on order, and a bunch of very young 739s, they are set on large narrowbodies. On the other end of the spectrum, they’ve gotten rid of tons of ~150-160 seat MD88/90 and are getting rid of a bunch of 110 seat 717s. Also, their A320s are really old and need replacing soon, and their 738s are getting up there as well. Not that future lift needs to match 2019 lift size for size, but it seems like their fleet needs are on the small/midsize part of the spectrum. I can see more A223/225s, but also see a spot for some MAX 8s, especially if a deal helped accelerate the 717 retirement. Guessing there will also be a lot of used 738/320s available for cheap, so maybe that’s a possibility.
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:20 pm

It's been hinted at a couple of times in this thread, but what does it mean for HA that DL no longer is using the 717 supply network?
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:26 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
It's been hinted at a couple of times in this thread, but what does it mean for HA that DL no longer is using the 717 supply network?


Not good things. Really, emphatically, not good things. But they'll be able to get a bunch of 717s from Boeing for parts if they want to scavenge.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8540
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:53 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
A more reputable link:
https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/del ... 0September.

I've learned not to quote SimpleFlying. I've been rightfully burned quoting them here on a.net as they are *not* a dependable source.
Delta to retire aircraft and take up to $2.5b charge

...

Delta says that it “concluded that the carrying value of these aircraft was no longer recoverable when compared to their estimated remaining future cash flows”. As a result, the airline will take a non-cash impairment charge of up to $2.5 billion during the current third quarter, which ends next week.

“Delta may continue to consider further opportunities for early aircraft retirements in an effort to modernize and simplify its fleet,” the airline says in the filing.


So Delta has simplified the fleet by planning or actually removing the:
MD-88
MD-90
B717
763
772
77L

It is a good thing they didn't over-invest.

dstblj52 wrote:
The thing that killed a Delta max deal last time was CFM wasn't willing to give techops an engine shop for the LEAP series so we might get see Delta ordering the max if that changes, especially given deltas love affair with absolute optimization of capacity route by route hour by hour.

I believe Pratt won the A321NEO order on the over-haul business.
Due to the need for a MAX sale, I'm betting CFM would offer the LEAP service, including the ability to service the A32xNEO family LEAP-1A as well as the -1B.

Delta is very unlikely to be a launch customer for something new and Boeing isn't likely to have the funds to invest in a new project anyway. I could see a -9 or -10 MAX order for DL. Not in 2020, but once DL sees the floor of this brutal market.

For the 767 replacement, DL would have liked the NMA... I doubt that would happen, but I cannot 100% say it won't.


MIflyer12 wrote:

That's a wholly artificial constraint you're imposing. A220s don't do the short routes today because DL has 717s for that; A220s do the long, thin routes because 717s lack the range.

To expand (I'm not rebutting):
The A220 is an excellent short haul aircraft . The difference is it saves so much more in fuel on long flights and could open new long thin, it made sense.
I can only hope DL is planning to top off their A220 order. They have many options, so replacement by 2025 is plausible. This will be interesting to follow.

Lightsaber


Regarding your idea about a MAX -9/-10 order, wouldn’t a MAX 8 make more sense? Seems like with all their new A321s, A321NEOs on order, and a bunch of very young 739s, they are set on large narrowbodies. On the other end of the spectrum, they’ve gotten rid of tons of ~150-160 seat MD88/90 and are getting rid of a bunch of 110 seat 717s. Also, their A320s are really old and need replacing soon, and their 738s are getting up there as well. Not that future lift needs to match 2019 lift size for size, but it seems like their fleet needs are on the small/midsize part of the spectrum. I can see more A223/225s, but also see a spot for some MAX 8s, especially if a deal helped accelerate the 717 retirement. Guessing there will also be a lot of used 738/320s available for cheap, so maybe that’s a possibility.


I'll come at this from a little bit different direction from you and TonyClifton:

TonyClifton wrote:
I’d expect more A220 orders. It’s gone from 75, to 90, and now 95 since the initial order. I know an A220-500 is a different world, but post 2025 they’d be in a good place to use it as an A320/738 replacement.


IMHO, DL will rebalance the A220 order (95 in total on order, as noted) to take more A220-100s and fewer A220-300s, to backfill the 717s.

1. With the CR2s going (and it's an open question, just DL owned, or all ~100?), DL will backfill some destinations with CR7/CR9/E75 but may still drop 20-25 destinations, irrespective of COVID slowdowns. Not every airport pair would have supported bigger aircraft at the same frequency, anyway. If the avg fares aren't there, routes will be dropped. WN makes a lot of money with a much smaller domestic destination set...

2. DL will then backfill some 'big RJ' destinations with A220s even as it works to backfill 717 routes.

3. That leaves a big hole in the middle, the DL-defined midsize narrowbody space, already a bit sparse because of the early MD-90 retirements and aging-out of A320s. (Please, don't talk cycles and hours: DL won't be operating 34-year-old A320s in December 2025. It's got 34 A320s 27.5 years or older today.)

4. A319s had fairly poor operating economics on a good day - there are reasons a bunch of carriers are giving them away. DL's 319s (now 17-21 years old) will not all fly their full mechanical lives - economics will kill them before age and cycles do.

5. DL isn't going all Airbus but for 739s - it would be suicidal forfeiture of negotiating leverage in a carrier this size with such a variety of fleet needs. (764 replacements? Too early to say.)

I think an order for ~100 MAX 8s at absolute fire sale (bad pun) prices is placed to backfill the midsize narrowbody opening created by all this. If recovery comes faster than 2023/2024 (see IATA and A4A statements, among others) and passenger growth for U.S.-origin travel resumes at ~3% annually, DL can convert MAX 8 order to MAX 10s.
 
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Rajahdhani
Posts: 612
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:12 pm

DocLightning wrote:
klm617 wrote:

And the 321LR certainly can not do ATL to central Europe either.


The XLR might. And remember how the A330 initially was a TATL aircraft with an endurance of 8-10 hours and now it can do over 15? Remember how the A320 was designed to be able to do a US transcon and now can do TATL? Airbus is famous for their relentless and incremental improvements to their products. I will be very interested to see what they have managed to get the A321 to do in five years.


...adding to that, is 'central Europe' even what DL should be aiming for, from ATL - essentially overflying their partner's hubs at LHR/MAN, AMS, CDG, or even to MXP? I mean, considering that many of those local carriers cannot make it work (due in part, to DL's partnerships and funneling onto the Trans-Atlantic JV) and we begin to see that if it were a matter of costs - then handling via that partner would be more profitable (and/or offer a higher yielding passenger greater flexibility - admittedly, that demand is hard to see now, and may be disrupted by other forces in future). I suggest that A321s will be able to allow DL to capture where they are weakest - with their lowest costing solution. Ireland, Portugal, Spain (partner there), UK destinations that are not LHR/MAN. Juxtapose that demand against all of DL's coastal hubs/focus cities; BOS, JFK, RDU, ATL.

I've just put together this image to explain a little:
Boundary 1 - 3200nmi is the typical range of an A321.
Boundary 2 - 3750nmi as I expect some limits of operation.
Boundary 3 - 4000nmi as the typical range of an A321LR.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=3200nm%40Atl&R=4000nm%40atl%0d%0a3750nm%40atl

Incremental increases to performance (and I have not even included the ranges of the XLR),will add upper ranges to places such as Norway, Sweden and indeed to parts of Germany.

That matters, though - because this can all be opportunistic flying for DL, to pick up (even at incremental weekly services, or opportunistically/seasonally/for specific holidays/events) - on an A321 that can just as easily work ATL-LAX, ATL-DFW, ATL-DEN, or even ATL-LIM, ATL-MAO, ATL-ANC. An incremental increase in performance, would 'clear' the entire state of Hawaii, within range. As is, ATL-HNL sits at 3912nmi.

Schedule them well, and then a ATL-SNN-BOS-SNN-ATL-JFK-SNN becomes a IRROPs savior, and a fleet utility star, while having the best costs in the family. If this goes well - we will be matching one of the world's most efficient hubs, with one of the world's most efficient airplanes. DL has done well. Based on the numbers, if they play this card right - this can be the new work horse!
Last edited by Rajahdhani on Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
ILikeTrains
Posts: 64
Joined: Tue Dec 24, 2019 3:18 am

Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:14 pm

Wow the 763 retirement announcement was a bit of a shocker, looking at how big the fleet is. But now till end of 2025 is still a long time. As everyone else has stated, the A339 will be a likely replacement, but I could see Boeing trying to offer 787-8’s at a steal, or maybe Delta could scoop up UA’s 764’s for cheap.

Crazy times
 
AZORMP
Posts: 109
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:08 pm

Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:15 pm

klm617 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
While this is big news in the sense its the first time they indicated actual dates for these fleet retirements, the announcement in the 8-K filing really isn't all that unexpected and in reality only likely pulls ahead the pre-covid retirement plans for these fleet types by 1-2 years.

What this indicates to me is the following:

- Taking the non-cash write-down now as said when they already are recognizing losses and take the hit now versus on-going
- They have decided to stop doing any further HMV / heavy maintenance work on those fleet types, so the timing of the last frames to go through would've been 2019. Thus the frames that are due for HMVs in 2020 are done, and the ones due in 2021 will go out when they run out of green-time
- This ties into the broader fleet plan, so we now are starting to see the plan for the current fleet, we haven't seen the revised delivery schedule for all the Airbus aircraft on-order; there was already sufficient capacity on-order between the A359, A339, A321NEO, A220s to cover most of this in the out years.
- Some of the plans in terms of the B763 for example were pre-covid based on continued growth and expansion beyond 2019 peak numbers; we obviously aren't gettting back to those numbers for 5-10 years

---
B763 - While this is the first time we've seen an official date (Dec 2025) it really is maybe 1-2 year prior to where they were scheduled to be retired pre-COVID. The aircraft were all basically at, near, or recently through their last heavy maintenance cycles. Considering the backlog of A339 orders/deliveries, the writing was on the wall. Announced last quarter was the early retirement of 7 B763s which were likely all due for heavy maintenance over the next year.

B712 - there has been a lot of rumor and speculation about this fleet. The fleet had been primarily leases with renewals coming due over the next several years. Rumors about keeping to 2030 and installing PTVs prior to Covid, rumors about working a deal with Boeing for 737 MAX a few months ago. An airworthiness directive that would require seats to be replaced by the end of 2022 that may or may not have been extended. In reality, even pre-covid keeping them to 2030 seemed like a stretch especially with the backlog of A220 orders. I honestly right now more surprised they are keeping them until 2025 versus what easily could've been a decision to let them go in 2021 or 2022 in the covid era. The part that we don't know yet is how they've renegotiated all the Airbus deliveries over the next few years. Right now only ~45 of the 91 are flying, it will be interesting to see if they reactivate the ones in storage.

CR2 - I personally don't have the hate against this type that so many do, but I get it. I have no issue with them on the short flights into small markets, granted that I was used to flying SF3 and/or the "Bro into back in the day. (Full disclosure - was a fan of turboprops, thought they were pretty cool). Granted, back in the day flew a CR2 on SLC-MSP next to a dude who was like 6'5 with football lineman shoulders - not cool. Anyways, this fleet was approaching its twilight anyways. This obviously applies to the DL-owned CR2s which are operated by Endeavor (9E). Unclear exactly if this impacts the Skywest (OO) owned CR2s that primarily do EAS-flying. I think the Skywest at-risk flying was terminated with Covid and that has reverted to flying under capacity purchase agreements. Some of the flying will simply go to larger 2-class RJs, the EAS stuff will stay under EAS contracts maybe still with CR2s, but there could be some small market fall-out. 50-seat flying is in its twilight anyways at all of the US3.



I don't have hate for the CR2 either but it doesn't belong on routes like DTW-BUF/ALB,ROC/ABE/GSO/GSP/YYZ/YUL NW never flew that small of a plane on those routes and it detracts from customers using DTW for their connections for said reason. It is more of a plane for DTW-LAN/FNT/AZO/TVC/SBN/FWA/ and the like. They CR2 without a doubt has had a negative impact on the Detroit hub more so than any other.



Agree that DTW gets hit hard with the retirement but AZO/TVC/LAN/MBS had two class service prior to Covid and MBS at least still does thanks to the FNT closure. AZO and TVC will regain 2-class service eventually, because the demand is there for it, especially during peak times.

The original November schedule for AZO was something like four CRJ-700s a day plus three CRJ-200 flights.
Kalamazoo’s Radio Man

The RJ2 sucks.
 
AZORMP
Posts: 109
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:08 pm

Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:16 pm

klm617 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
While this is big news in the sense its the first time they indicated actual dates for these fleet retirements, the announcement in the 8-K filing really isn't all that unexpected and in reality only likely pulls ahead the pre-covid retirement plans for these fleet types by 1-2 years.

What this indicates to me is the following:

- Taking the non-cash write-down now as said when they already are recognizing losses and take the hit now versus on-going
- They have decided to stop doing any further HMV / heavy maintenance work on those fleet types, so the timing of the last frames to go through would've been 2019. Thus the frames that are due for HMVs in 2020 are done, and the ones due in 2021 will go out when they run out of green-time
- This ties into the broader fleet plan, so we now are starting to see the plan for the current fleet, we haven't seen the revised delivery schedule for all the Airbus aircraft on-order; there was already sufficient capacity on-order between the A359, A339, A321NEO, A220s to cover most of this in the out years.
- Some of the plans in terms of the B763 for example were pre-covid based on continued growth and expansion beyond 2019 peak numbers; we obviously aren't gettting back to those numbers for 5-10 years

---
B763 - While this is the first time we've seen an official date (Dec 2025) it really is maybe 1-2 year prior to where they were scheduled to be retired pre-COVID. The aircraft were all basically at, near, or recently through their last heavy maintenance cycles. Considering the backlog of A339 orders/deliveries, the writing was on the wall. Announced last quarter was the early retirement of 7 B763s which were likely all due for heavy maintenance over the next year.

B712 - there has been a lot of rumor and speculation about this fleet. The fleet had been primarily leases with renewals coming due over the next several years. Rumors about keeping to 2030 and installing PTVs prior to Covid, rumors about working a deal with Boeing for 737 MAX a few months ago. An airworthiness directive that would require seats to be replaced by the end of 2022 that may or may not have been extended. In reality, even pre-covid keeping them to 2030 seemed like a stretch especially with the backlog of A220 orders. I honestly right now more surprised they are keeping them until 2025 versus what easily could've been a decision to let them go in 2021 or 2022 in the covid era. The part that we don't know yet is how they've renegotiated all the Airbus deliveries over the next few years. Right now only ~45 of the 91 are flying, it will be interesting to see if they reactivate the ones in storage.

CR2 - I personally don't have the hate against this type that so many do, but I get it. I have no issue with them on the short flights into small markets, granted that I was used to flying SF3 and/or the "Bro into back in the day. (Full disclosure - was a fan of turboprops, thought they were pretty cool). Granted, back in the day flew a CR2 on SLC-MSP next to a dude who was like 6'5 with football lineman shoulders - not cool. Anyways, this fleet was approaching its twilight anyways. This obviously applies to the DL-owned CR2s which are operated by Endeavor (9E). Unclear exactly if this impacts the Skywest (OO) owned CR2s that primarily do EAS-flying. I think the Skywest at-risk flying was terminated with Covid and that has reverted to flying under capacity purchase agreements. Some of the flying will simply go to larger 2-class RJs, the EAS stuff will stay under EAS contracts maybe still with CR2s, but there could be some small market fall-out. 50-seat flying is in its twilight anyways at all of the US3.



I don't have hate for the CR2 either but it doesn't belong on routes like DTW-BUF/ALB,ROC/ABE/GSO/GSP/YYZ/YUL NW never flew that small of a plane on those routes and it detracts from customers using DTW for their connections for said reason. It is more of a plane for DTW-LAN/FNT/AZO/TVC/SBN/FWA/ and the like. They CR2 without a doubt has had a negative impact on the Detroit hub more so than any other.



Agree that DTW gets hit hard with the retirement but AZO/TVC/LAN/MBS had two class service prior to Covid and MBS at least still does thanks to the FNT closure. AZO and TVC will regain 2-class service eventually, because the demand is there for it, especially during peak times.

The original November schedule for AZO was something like four CRJ-700s a day plus three CRJ-200 flights.
Kalamazoo’s Radio Man

The RJ2 sucks.
 
TW870
Posts: 1249
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2013 2:01 am

Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:11 pm

Wow I am so sad to hear final word on the 717. That rugged McDonnell-Douglas style was so lovable, and I will so miss those rocket, high deck-angle climbouts. On the other hand, byeeee CR2! I commute for work on a CR2 route, and I am unusual in that in most cases I would rather to a 1-stop on larger aircraft to 2 hours on a CRJ. I get lots of work done while flying, and the t-rexed arms and flimsy, garbage little table on the CR2 make it just impossible. Honestly the only aircraft in existence I dislike flying on.

This announcement is very consistent historically, as economic shocks always cause fleet streamlining and the demise of older technology aircraft. The 1973 oil shock eliminate the Convair jets, the 1979 oil shock eliminated the remaining turbojets, 9/11 eliminated JT8D powered airplanes. I think this one ends the 767-300 model for long haul ops - which as others are saying will significantly reduce international point to point service.
 
airzona11
Posts: 1787
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:44 am

Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:18 pm

This is going to be interesting for long haul. The 763 helped connect smaller destinations in Europe/SA/even Asia or smaller stations stateside to JV Hubs. The 339/333 is a huge jump and the 764/332 aren’t plentiful. What’s the Delta intl market going to look like? Long thin on A321 is going to need higher fares, and not ideal hub flying. The A333/339 on the flip side is very large and all those seats might be low on CASM but you need to fill those seats. That’ll be a 100+ seat gap between the a321 and 333/339. There is a market for a plane there.
 
ILNFlyer
Posts: 549
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:34 pm

Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:38 pm

raylee67 wrote:
I guess the 763 may have a higher value as a BCF then a continuing concern as a pax aircraft..


I'm sure the Amazon Air operators (ATSG, ATLAS, and now SUN) will only be too happy to gobble these up for that purpose. There are many of these birds (both 717 and 763) parked at ILN as we speak. The running joke at ILN is that the ramp they occupy is now nothing more than ATSG's shopping cart.
 
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madpropsyo
Posts: 92
Joined: Sat Jun 09, 2018 2:02 am

Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:54 pm

I'm curious what this means for the future of the SEA TPAC operation. Half the stated reason for launching it was that most of the Asian markets they wanted to serve were within the range of the smaller 763 from SEA. Putting the 339 into SEA will surely change the calculus on some of these routes.

Perhaps they'll turn over most of the SEA TPAC ops to KE and retrench their international ops to stronger hubs + LAX with the longer range and higher seat count of the 339.
 
jayunited
Posts: 3031
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:16 pm

madpropsyo wrote:
I'm curious what this means for the future of the SEA TPAC operation. Half the stated reason for launching it was that most of the Asian markets they wanted to serve were within the range of the smaller 763 from SEA. Putting the 339 into SEA will surely change the calculus on some of these routes.

Perhaps they'll turn over most of the SEA TPAC ops to KE and retrench their international ops to stronger hubs + LAX with the longer range and higher seat count of the 339.



Correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't Delta already removed most if not all 763s from their SEA TPAC operations and (pre-COVID) replaced those 763s with A339NEO, A359s, and I think A333s?
 
ewt340
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:17 pm

Ok so, what about B767-400ER though? They are currently between 18.5-21 years of age. By December 2025 when they retire all their B767-300ER. All of those B767-400ER would be around 24-26 years old.

Wouldn't it be better for them to retire the -400ER as well? Since it have similar number of seats as A330-200 which they are currently retrofitting with new seats.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:30 pm

Rajahdhani wrote:
...adding to that, is 'central Europe' even what DL should be aiming for, from ATL - essentially overflying their partner's hubs at LHR/MAN, AMS, CDG, or even to MXP? I mean, considering that many of those local carriers cannot make it work (due in part, to DL's partnerships and funneling onto the Trans-Atlantic JV) and we begin to see that if it were a matter of costs - then handling via that partner would be more profitable (and/or offer a higher yielding passenger greater flexibility - admittedly, that demand is hard to see now, and may be disrupted by other forces in future). I suggest that A321s will be able to allow DL to capture where they are weakest - with their lowest costing solution. Ireland, Portugal, Spain (partner there), UK destinations that are not LHR/MAN. Juxtapose that demand against all of DL's coastal hubs/focus cities; BOS, JFK, RDU, ATL.



On top of that, if DL wants to serve smaller markets in Central Europe, JFK geographically is a much better hub, as is BOS. They can shunt passengers from all over the US through JFK or BOS for those routes.

ATL is a Southern city and if they want to serve secondary markets from ATL, then the Caribbean and South America should be their focus there.

Finally, if DL really wants a smaller aircraft that can fly from ATL to places in the middle of Europe, they can order A338s. Airbus pulled the plug on that program, but they did build one or two and a customer like DL might be sufficient to get them to go through with producing and certifying the model
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777Mech
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:33 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
raylee67 wrote:
I guess the 763 may have a higher value as a BCF then a continuing concern as a pax aircraft. The long haul fleet is going to standardize between A330 and A350 then.

The 764 will become a very small fleet of odd-ball type. However, we can probably expect that, when the situation has sufficiently improved, even if it takes it to 2024 or 2025, Delta will expand its fleet of A339 and A350 to replace the 764. Eventually more of those will be ordered down the road to replace the older A332 and A333 too.

And it still leaves the question of what will replace the large 757 fleet. Boeing better comes up with something good in the next two years. Otherwise, a mix order of A321NEO and NEO-XLR will be likely.


By 2025, most of the B764 fleet will be needing another D-check. I would expect the BCRF livery to transfer to an A339. I would expect the B764s to be retired upon reaching that D-check. As for the B763s, the GE-powered frames (that were ordered new by DL) would likely be sold for conversion. The PW ones though will likely be almost out of hours.

Regarding the B712, I see more BCS3s being ordered to cover their routes. Then that puts pressure on HA to consider a B712 replacement, since DL currently operates the majority of the in-service fleet.


As it stands now, the next round of D-checks For the 764 won't start until late 2027 and what would be the last one wouldn't need a check until 2030, if this round of checks going on in CAN stay true to schedule.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:35 pm

Rajahdhani wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
klm617 wrote:

And the 321LR certainly can not do ATL to central Europe either.


The XLR might. And remember how the A330 initially was a TATL aircraft with an endurance of 8-10 hours and now it can do over 15? Remember how the A320 was designed to be able to do a US transcon and now can do TATL? Airbus is famous for their relentless and incremental improvements to their products. I will be very interested to see what they have managed to get the A321 to do in five years.


...adding to that, is 'central Europe' even what DL should be aiming for, from ATL - essentially overflying their partner's hubs at LHR/MAN, AMS, CDG, or even to MXP? I mean, considering that many of those local carriers cannot make it work (due in part, to DL's partnerships and funneling onto the Trans-Atlantic JV) and we begin to see that if it were a matter of costs - then handling via that partner would be more profitable (and/or offer a higher yielding passenger greater flexibility - admittedly, that demand is hard to see now, and may be disrupted by other forces in future). I suggest that A321s will be able to allow DL to capture where they are weakest - with their lowest costing solution. Ireland, Portugal, Spain (partner there), UK destinations that are not LHR/MAN. Juxtapose that demand against all of DL's coastal hubs/focus cities; BOS, JFK, RDU, ATL.

I've just put together this image to explain a little:
Boundary 1 - 3200nmi is the typical range of an A321.
Boundary 2 - 3750nmi as I expect some limits of operation.
Boundary 3 - 4000nmi as the typical range of an A321LR.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=3200nm%40Atl&R=4000nm%40atl%0d%0a3750nm%40atl

Incremental increases to performance (and I have not even included the ranges of the XLR),will add upper ranges to places such as Norway, Sweden and indeed to parts of Germany.

That matters, though - because this can all be opportunistic flying for DL, to pick up (even at incremental weekly services, or opportunistically/seasonally/for specific holidays/events) - on an A321 that can just as easily work ATL-LAX, ATL-DFW, ATL-DEN, or even ATL-LIM, ATL-MAO, ATL-ANC. An incremental increase in performance, would 'clear' the entire state of Hawaii, within range. As is, ATL-HNL sits at 3912nmi.

Schedule them well, and then a ATL-SNN-BOS-SNN-ATL-JFK-SNN becomes a IRROPs savior, and a fleet utility star, while having the best costs in the family. If this goes well - we will be matching one of the world's most efficient hubs, with one of the world's most efficient airplanes. DL has done well. Based on the numbers, if they play this card right - this can be the new work horse!


I agree with your larger point but you probably overstate the case a bit. Many of these intercontinental routes - like ATL-LIM during asparagus season - need cargo capacity that the 321 simply doesn't offer. And no airplane with 4,000 mile range can do ATL-Hawaii. That's why you don't see 752s to Hawaii from anywhere east of the Rockies.
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JBo
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:43 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
CR2 - I personally don't have the hate against this type that so many do, but I get it. I have no issue with them on the short flights into small markets, granted that I was used to flying SF3 and/or the "Bro into back in the day. (Full disclosure - was a fan of turboprops, thought they were pretty cool). Granted, back in the day flew a CR2 on SLC-MSP next to a dude who was like 6'5 with football lineman shoulders - not cool. Anyways, this fleet was approaching its twilight anyways. This obviously applies to the DL-owned CR2s which are operated by Endeavor (9E). Unclear exactly if this impacts the Skywest (OO) owned CR2s that primarily do EAS-flying. I think the Skywest at-risk flying was terminated with Covid and that has reverted to flying under capacity purchase agreements. Some of the flying will simply go to larger 2-class RJs, the EAS stuff will stay under EAS contracts maybe still with CR2s, but there could be some small market fall-out. 50-seat flying is in its twilight anyways at all of the US3.


ADM94 wrote:
It's actually the opposite for OO. CPA flying will all be terminated by year's-end, but at-risk flying will continue as-is. I believe this was already being planned pre-COVID. SkyWest holds all of the EAS contracts, not Delta, so if DL at-risk flying were to be terminated, SkyWest would still be obligated to operate to those cities, likely under a different brand.


Cubsrule wrote:
If we go with the thesis that OO is keeping some CRJs and that the OO-operated flying will remain, we can in some sense remove most upper midwest stations (which, with a couple of exceptions, are OO-operated EAS) and the stations served ex-SLC from that list. That leaves some DTW-Pennsylvania/New York flying, LSE and CWA, and an awful lot of cities in the southeast. I think the cities that are over about 800 flights in the table are probably safe; many of them are relatively larger, fairly isolated, or both and can probably support CR7s/CR9s at lower frequency. I think the New York and Pennsylvania stations likely are goners; they have little to no strategic value to DL. For me the hardest question is the likes of MLU and ABY, where DL has a tremendous amount of history and brand loyalty but perhaps not the right airplane any longer.


The projected date for phasing out the CR2 is far enough out that most, if not all of, SkyWest's EAS contracts that are currently operated under DL branding will be up for renewal between now and then. If Delta is going to force OO's hand as far as at-risk CR2 flying in DL colors, then this will give OO the time to either rebid those routes under UA colors to UA hubs instead, or work out an arrangement with DL to continue those routes as a codeshare operated under OO colors (not unlike the codeshare OO had with AirTran out of MKE several years ago), or back out of bidding entirely.
I'd take the awe of understanding over the awe of ignorance any day.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:43 pm

With CR2s gone , that looks bad for Small markets. I guess CR7s with reduced frequency
 
BettaFish7
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:55 pm

HVNandrew wrote:
The 717 fills a niche role in the DL network; there are going to be a lot of small and mid-sized markets in the southeast, northeast and midwest that will lose mainline service. They may have similar capacity, but the A220 isn't meant for the same missions. I don't think you'll see the A220 replacing the 717 on routes like ATL-LIT, for example; the A220 is meant for longer, thinner routes as opposed to the short hops of the 717. I'm guessing a lot of those 717 routes will revert to the CR7/CR9, unless some of the markets could sustain an upgauge to the 319?




The 717 could still be around today if Boeing had invested more money into the regional market, provided new 717 variants with new wings, and supported and updated the older ones. Also if American did a massive MD-95 order or maybe if AirTran was it's own company, there'd be a big aftermarket for the 717, driving the cost of maintenance down. In comparison, the E-Jets and CRJ's are newer and were continuously updated with each stretched variant. It also doesn't help that it's essentially a 1960's era design with the same wing as a DC9-30. In today's market, the 717 fills a very tight niche as you pointed out, because either you have the larger capacity 737 doing 1 hour flights at the least or a tiny more fuel-efficient CRJ doing the quick-turnover 30min hops. Considering these facts, i feel that Boeing, for understandable reasons, just didn't invest enough into the 717 to make it viable anymore. I was hoping that when MickeyD merged management with Boeing, that the executives would have a heart to keep the only successful Douglas-era jet going. But I think it was too hard for Boeing to compete in the regional market with Bombardier and Embraer, especially after Air Canada cancelled their 717 orders in favor of the E190. Now with the much newer A220 proving it's worth in the market as essentially a compromise between a 737/A319 and EMB/CRJ, with of course it's pros and cons, the old 717 no longer looks economical and Boeing maybe should consider a competitor to it. Those are just my thoughts. But feel free to disagree or correct me if I'm wrong.

I am sad that the 717 ended up like this. Riding on the 717 makes me nostalgic to the DC9-era.
Aviation history proves the importance of R&D over profit-based complacency.
 
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hawaiian717
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:02 pm

klm617 wrote:
I don't have hate for the CR2 either but it doesn't belong on routes like DTW-BUF/ALB,ROC/ABE/GSO/GSP/YYZ/YUL NW never flew that small of a plane on those routes and it detracts from customers using DTW for their connections for said reason. It is more of a plane for DTW-LAN/FNT/AZO/TVC/SBN/FWA/ and the like. They CR2 without a doubt has had a negative impact on the Detroit hub more so than any other.


I’m not sure if you’re basing this on stage length or something else, but if it is, my first ever CRJ flight was DTW-YQB on Pinnacle (Northwest Airlink) which is longer than both DTW-YYZ and DTW-YUL.
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:15 pm

ILikeTrains wrote:
Wow the 763 retirement announcement was a bit of a shocker, looking at how big the fleet is. But now till end of 2025 is still a long time. As everyone else has stated, the A339 will be a likely replacement, but I could see Boeing trying to offer 787-8’s at a steal, or maybe Delta could scoop up UA’s 764’s for cheap.

Crazy times


I could see a small fleet of 787-8’s at DL in the future if Boeing gives a huge discount. They need to reconsider some of their A350 orders in light of this and the 788 would be better to Europe and Asia from their MSP, SLC and SEA hubs.
 
TonyClifton
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:46 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
ILikeTrains wrote:
Wow the 763 retirement announcement was a bit of a shocker, looking at how big the fleet is. But now till end of 2025 is still a long time. As everyone else has stated, the A339 will be a likely replacement, but I could see Boeing trying to offer 787-8’s at a steal, or maybe Delta could scoop up UA’s 764’s for cheap.

Crazy times


I could see a small fleet of 787-8’s at DL in the future if Boeing gives a huge discount. They need to reconsider some of their A350 orders in light of this and the 788 would be better to Europe and Asia from their MSP, SLC and SEA hubs.

The 767-400 replacement hasn’t been accounted for yet, and is probably closer to 2030 than 2020 so a chance for 787s there, plus the oldest 333s will be nearing 30 years by then. Never say never. I could see some 789s or 788s to replace the oldest A330s and 767s (both -300 role and -400) middle to later part of the decade, unless they get some nice A339 deals.
 
panamair
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:58 pm

jayunited wrote:
madpropsyo wrote:
I'm curious what this means for the future of the SEA TPAC operation. Half the stated reason for launching it was that most of the Asian markets they wanted to serve were within the range of the smaller 763 from SEA. Putting the 339 into SEA will surely change the calculus on some of these routes.

Perhaps they'll turn over most of the SEA TPAC ops to KE and retrench their international ops to stronger hubs + LAX with the longer range and higher seat count of the 339.



Correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't Delta already removed most if not all 763s from their SEA TPAC operations and (pre-COVID) replaced those 763s with A339NEO, A359s, and I think A333s?


That’s correct. SEA-HND/ICN/PVG have all been switched to the A339 (well PVG is an A359 now because of the limited China frequencies etc). Pre-COVID I believe they were on the cusp of switching SEA-PEK/PKX to the A339 as well. The only 763 was SEA-KIX which probably will be gone for a while under current circumstances.
 
panamair
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:03 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Ok so, what about B767-400ER though? They are currently between 18.5-21 years of age. By December 2025 when they retire all their B767-300ER. All of those B767-400ER would be around 24-26 years old.

Wouldn't it be better for them to retire the -400ER as well? Since it have similar number of seats as A330-200 which they are currently retrofitting with new seats.


The 764s are currently being retrofitted, not the A332s. They have not announced any plans for the A333/A332s yet. The fact that they are continuing with the 764 refurbishments despite the current challenges indicates that the 764s are not going anywhere yet. They probably will be the initial replacement for some of the existing thin 763ER routes while current 764 routes get upgauged to the A339.
Last edited by panamair on Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
HNLSLCPDX
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:04 pm

SLC sees a lot of CRJ200’s as well. I would think that airports such as CDC, PIH, WYS, EKO, TWF, COD, LWS, could all lose the DL service. I could maybe see UA/UAX pick up some of those routes though if that happens.
 
TonyClifton
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:09 pm

panamair wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Ok so, what about B767-400ER though? They are currently between 18.5-21 years of age. By December 2025 when they retire all their B767-300ER. All of those B767-400ER would be around 24-26 years old.

Wouldn't it be better for them to retire the -400ER as well? Since it have similar number of seats as A330-200 which they are currently retrofitting with new seats.


The 764s are currently being retrofitted, not the A332s. They have not announced any plans for the A333/A332s yet. The fact that they are continuing with the 764 refurbishments despite the current challenges indicates that the 764s are not going anywhere yet. They probably will be the initial replacement for some of the existing thin 763ER routes while current 764 routes get upgauged to the A339.

764 is relatively premium heavy (34 Delta One, 20 premium select), it serves a good role on NYC/ATL to business hubs like LHR, BRU, ZRH. I’d expect to see maybe some A332s step in as needed, it only carries 10 more than the denser 763 configuration. Oh, to grab the PW powered 332s at Virgin!
 
DylanHarvey
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:15 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Rajahdhani wrote:
DocLightning wrote:

The XLR might. And remember how the A330 initially was a TATL aircraft with an endurance of 8-10 hours and now it can do over 15? Remember how the A320 was designed to be able to do a US transcon and now can do TATL? Airbus is famous for their relentless and incremental improvements to their products. I will be very interested to see what they have managed to get the A321 to do in five years.


...adding to that, is 'central Europe' even what DL should be aiming for, from ATL - essentially overflying their partner's hubs at LHR/MAN, AMS, CDG, or even to MXP? I mean, considering that many of those local carriers cannot make it work (due in part, to DL's partnerships and funneling onto the Trans-Atlantic JV) and we begin to see that if it were a matter of costs - then handling via that partner would be more profitable (and/or offer a higher yielding passenger greater flexibility - admittedly, that demand is hard to see now, and may be disrupted by other forces in future). I suggest that A321s will be able to allow DL to capture where they are weakest - with their lowest costing solution. Ireland, Portugal, Spain (partner there), UK destinations that are not LHR/MAN. Juxtapose that demand against all of DL's coastal hubs/focus cities; BOS, JFK, RDU, ATL.

I've just put together this image to explain a little:
Boundary 1 - 3200nmi is the typical range of an A321.
Boundary 2 - 3750nmi as I expect some limits of operation.
Boundary 3 - 4000nmi as the typical range of an A321LR.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=3200nm%40Atl&R=4000nm%40atl%0d%0a3750nm%40atl

Incremental increases to performance (and I have not even included the ranges of the XLR),will add upper ranges to places such as Norway, Sweden and indeed to parts of Germany.

That matters, though - because this can all be opportunistic flying for DL, to pick up (even at incremental weekly services, or opportunistically/seasonally/for specific holidays/events) - on an A321 that can just as easily work ATL-LAX, ATL-DFW, ATL-DEN, or even ATL-LIM, ATL-MAO, ATL-ANC. An incremental increase in performance, would 'clear' the entire state of Hawaii, within range. As is, ATL-HNL sits at 3912nmi.

Schedule them well, and then a ATL-SNN-BOS-SNN-ATL-JFK-SNN becomes a IRROPs savior, and a fleet utility star, while having the best costs in the family. If this goes well - we will be matching one of the world's most efficient hubs, with one of the world's most efficient airplanes. DL has done well. Based on the numbers, if they play this card right - this can be the new work horse!


I agree with your larger point but you probably overstate the case a bit. Many of these intercontinental routes - like ATL-LIM during asparagus season - need cargo capacity that the 321 simply doesn't offer. And no airplane with 4,000 mile range can do ATL-Hawaii. That's why you don't see 752s to Hawaii from anywhere east of the Rockies.

They even have issues with the 764 during asparagus season, I am positive if there was enough excess capacity they would probably throw 333 down to lima just for cargo.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:28 pm

DocLightning wrote:
I love the 767, but the writing is on the wall. I hope that Boeing does come up with a 2-3-2 cabin medium-haul aircraft with an elliptical cross-section. There is a market for such an aircraft.

Is there? Boeing could never close the case on the MOM and the 767 pax doesn't sell anymore. So, that should tell you what the market looks like.
 
tnair1974
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:43 pm

HVNandrew wrote:
The 717 fills a niche role in the DL network; there are going to be a lot of small and mid-sized markets in the southeast, northeast and midwest that will lose mainline service. They may have similar capacity, but the A220 isn't meant for the same missions. I don't think you'll see the A220 replacing the 717 on routes like ATL-LIT, for example; the A220 is meant for longer, thinner routes as opposed to the short hops of the 717. I'm guessing a lot of those 717 routes will revert to the CR7/CR9, unless some of the markets could sustain an upgauge to the 319?

717s are indeed a high cycle plane ideal for shorter routes, unlike the A220. But while designed with long legs, an A220 could still do ATL-TYS/BHM/MEM or IND-DTW well enough. Combining shorter flights with much longer segments like IND-LAX and EWR/CLT-SLC could ultimately better balance the A220's cycle/hour ratio.

I'm guessing the A220s will stay nearly exclusively on longer routes as long as possible while the 717s in their twilight stay on short hops (few if anymore 717s doing the likes of PHL/LGA/JFK to Florida segments).
 
rbavfan
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:54 pm

HVNandrew wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
HVNandrew wrote:
The 717 fills a niche role in the DL network; there are going to be a lot of small and mid-sized markets in the southeast, northeast and midwest that will lose mainline service. They may have similar capacity, but the A220 isn't meant for the same missions.


That's a wholly artificial constraint you're imposing. A220s don't do the short routes today because DL has 717s for that; A220s do the long, thin routes because 717s lack the range.

But that's my point; why wouldn't they continue to do those routes going forward? I don't see them moving off of longer, thinner routes (where their range is needed) en masse to cover the routes currently flown by the 717.


The A220 works great on long thin & short hop routes. It was designed for both. Just because they use it LT right now does not mean the Large order, option combination cant fully replace 717's & expand the fleet. You being too short sighted. The 300 could also replace all the 737-700 & A319's. as it has range for all the current routes those are used on.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:55 pm

I can't see DL ordering anything new for years, why should they. The market is setting up for terrific bargains in used aircraft and is there any airline better than DL in husbanding middle aged to old aircraft to be a quite efficient fleet. Possibly not efficient in terms of just fuel burn, but in total operating cost per hour DL is one of the best on getting that. DL has flown the MD's 5-6 years past nearly every other airline.

The used fleet has an amazing amount of lease returns in the next few years, with hardly any buyers in sight. I expect lease rates on 10 year + aircraft to decline substantially, along with asking prices for purchase. Some key points by model

788's - as noted up thread the 788 is a good fit to replace the 763 and later the 764. They would want to avoid the early line numbers but LN100 was delivered in 2013, there should be a lot of fleet returns 10 years out. Snatch from a lessor 10 to 20 planes operated by a single airline with the GEnX engines (or do they prefer RR on their widebodies as all the new A330 and A350 have?), probably buying the planes so they can have for 15 to 20 years.

A320ceo and neo, B737's both NG and MAX - again go bottom fishing. Lots of CEO and NEO that are 10 years or younger will be available for excellent pricing. At the right price B737-700 and A319 make sense to replace the MD and 717 planes that are short hauls where fuel efficiency matters less. Similarly the larger CEO & NG models should have bargain pricing hitting bottom some time in the next year. The NEO and MAX best bargains are still 2 years out or more.

The only new orders I expect DL to make is to take up NTU's that the OEM's need to move off the lot.

Taking out of the fleet the 763's makes good sense as conversions have kept their prices higher. The 764 has no conversion program so it makes sense to fly them their full life. Enough sense that buying more 764's on the market is a possibility.
 
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klm617
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:56 pm

hawaiian717 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
I don't have hate for the CR2 either but it doesn't belong on routes like DTW-BUF/ALB,ROC/ABE/GSO/GSP/YYZ/YUL NW never flew that small of a plane on those routes and it detracts from customers using DTW for their connections for said reason. It is more of a plane for DTW-LAN/FNT/AZO/TVC/SBN/FWA/ and the like. They CR2 without a doubt has had a negative impact on the Detroit hub more so than any other.


I’m not sure if you’re basing this on stage length or something else, but if it is, my first ever CRJ flight was DTW-YQB on Pinnacle (Northwest Airlink) which is longer than both DTW-YYZ and DTW-YUL.



No I was basing it on market size not stage length.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:06 pm

DocLightning wrote:
klm617 wrote:
My question is what current aircraft in production can replace the 767. This probably means an end to secondary city TATL flying like IND, MCO, TPA and maybe RDU as anything bigger than a 767 is just to big. What does this mean for routes like ATL-BRU, ZRH and DUS. Does this mean more double connects over CDG and AMS in the Delta network.


The 321LR. It's not quite as big but I remember AA saying that the 321NEO carried all of the F, all of the J and 70% of the Y of a 762 while burning ½ the fuel. So with a 321LR, DL could continue to serve these routes. They'd need to decide whether to operate one or two flights per day, but this would be a logical successor. I'm sure the 763 wasn't a perfect fit for any of these routes, but it was close enough, so the A321LR will also not be a perfect fit, but close enough.

I love the 767, but the writing is on the wall. I hope that Boeing does come up with a 2-3-2 cabin medium-haul aircraft with an elliptical cross-section. There is a market for such an aircraft. But with Boeing's bungling of the 787 and MAX, I'm not sure that they will have the resources to get to work on a new type in time for DL.


Basically this is right on. 767 was a minimum trip cost bird for many airlines. It was useful. But anything under 4000 miles, the A321 will do at better unit cost than any 767. Anything over 4000 or so miles, A330 will become the minimum trip cost airplane. Time is marching on. The B767 is ancient technology now. 40 years old. Even the 777 is facing headwinds. That's how it works.
 
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hawaiian717
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:06 pm

klm617 wrote:
hawaiian717 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
I don't have hate for the CR2 either but it doesn't belong on routes like DTW-BUF/ALB,ROC/ABE/GSO/GSP/YYZ/YUL NW never flew that small of a plane on those routes and it detracts from customers using DTW for their connections for said reason. It is more of a plane for DTW-LAN/FNT/AZO/TVC/SBN/FWA/ and the like. They CR2 without a doubt has had a negative impact on the Detroit hub more so than any other.


I’m not sure if you’re basing this on stage length or something else, but if it is, my first ever CRJ flight was DTW-YQB on Pinnacle (Northwest Airlink) which is longer than both DTW-YYZ and DTW-YUL.



No I was basing it on market size not stage length.


Ok, that makes sense. YQB is definitely a smaller market than YYZ and YUL. I was wondering because a lot of complaints about the CRJ center around it’s lack of comfort, thus people will complain about it being used in longer flights.
Last edited by hawaiian717 on Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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klm617
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:07 pm

DocLightning wrote:
Rajahdhani wrote:
...adding to that, is 'central Europe' even what DL should be aiming for, from ATL - essentially overflying their partner's hubs at LHR/MAN, AMS, CDG, or even to MXP? I mean, considering that many of those local carriers cannot make it work (due in part, to DL's partnerships and funneling onto the Trans-Atlantic JV) and we begin to see that if it were a matter of costs - then handling via that partner would be more profitable (and/or offer a higher yielding passenger greater flexibility - admittedly, that demand is hard to see now, and may be disrupted by other forces in future). I suggest that A321s will be able to allow DL to capture where they are weakest - with their lowest costing solution. Ireland, Portugal, Spain (partner there), UK destinations that are not LHR/MAN. Juxtapose that demand against all of DL's coastal hubs/focus cities; BOS, JFK, RDU, ATL.



On top of that, if DL wants to serve smaller markets in Central Europe, JFK geographically is a much better hub, as is BOS. They can shunt passengers from all over the US through JFK or BOS for those routes.

ATL is a Southern city and if they want to serve secondary markets from ATL, then the Caribbean and South America should be their focus there.

Finally, if DL really wants a smaller aircraft that can fly from ATL to places in the middle of Europe, they can order A338s. Airbus pulled the plug on that program, but they did build one or two and a customer like DL might be sufficient to get them to go through with producing and certifying the model


DTW is also pretty well positioned as well for TATL flights an most places can also be reached from there with the A321LR not to mention DTW is not prone to delays or extremely bad weather. That being sad DTW is the perfect place to build up they TATL connectivity.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
777Mech
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:13 pm

Like I posted in the widebody thread, I do see DL pushing back the A321Neos almost 2 years, and the first 25 examples will have ETOPS, so they'll try and fly those on the thin routes out of BOS and JFK that won't use a 767.

OTOH, those Neos may go out to the west coast for the Hawaii runs, and those freed up 757s will come back east. Interesting times ahead for sure.
 
amcnd
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:33 pm

HNLSLCPDX wrote:
SLC sees a lot of CRJ200’s as well. I would think that airports such as CDC, PIH, WYS, EKO, TWF, COD, LWS, could all lose the DL service. I could maybe see UA/UAX pick up some of those routes though if that happens.


You need to think like a marketing manager.. or CEO. When Delta says they don't want any 200’s. They don't “eye” EAS or pro rate as “there 200’s” . You won’t see any changes to those routes for years. Unless Delta wants to put them under CPA. Then you would see dual class RJ’s on them...
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:50 pm

Don't forget that back around 2011-12 Delta was banging on about being "proudly all jet", even though there were Saab 340s flying around in Delta colors carrying Delta passengers. They were operating at-risk EAS flying, so Delta didn't consider them to be part of "their" fleet. As far as I'm concerned that's a distinction in search of difference as the passengers don't know nor care if the flight is at-risk or CPA, but I agree that if Delta is happy to keep those SkyWrst at-risk EAS markets served then that won't count towards he "no CRJ200" cap.
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DLHAM
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:53 pm

767-300 going will mean quite a few TATL routes go/not come back as the A330-900 is too large. It may have lower CASM but the additional seats would have to be sold. Also Delta would rather send A330-900s to places where they can fill these extra seats with decent yields, not where they struggle to sell the last 50-60 seats.

If Delta - and I am sure they will - orders the A321XLR some of these destinations could return, maybe even some way older and new ones. But these will be from BOS, JFK and DTW as the XLR should struggle with flying ATL into deeper Europe. Just the shortest EU routes should be reliably possible from ATL under real world conditions.
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Boof02671
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sun Sep 27, 2020 12:05 am

DLASFlyer wrote:
jayunited wrote:
Boeing is not going to come up with anything better, they have had years to launch a MOM and they have consistently dragged their feet. Delta even stated they wanted to be the launch customer for the MOM. Together with United both of these airlines have been begging Boeing for years to come up with some type of MOM yet we still have no decision or clear direction.

Meanwhile, American begged for a 737 MAX and look where that got us.

That was WN, not AA
 
Boof02671
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sun Sep 27, 2020 12:06 am

And Delta won’t be ordering any planes, they are in negotiations with Airbus to defer and delay 40 planes
 
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klm617
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sun Sep 27, 2020 12:15 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
This probably means an end to secondary city TATL flying like IND, MCO, TPA and maybe RDU as anything bigger than a 767 is just to big.


That is a possibility, but a 339 (or 764) isn't just bigger, it's also cheaper to operate per seat. The idea that an aircraft replacement needs to be the same seat count 1:1 really... lacks traction.

klm617 wrote:
Does this mean more double connects over CDG and AMS in the Delta network.


Probably, just like NW did for everything TATL other than LON, FRA, AMS and CDG (with FCO seasonally).

From the SEC filing: Although the actual amount of the charges has not yet been finalized, Delta expects the
aggregate impairment and other related charges to be in a range from $2.0 billion and $2.5 billion, before tax.


That's a lot of (non-cash) money. It does clear the decks for a fleet with much better CASM, but it's going to require a lot of $$$ for new aircraft or a much, much smaller airline.


Yes but just because those planes are cheaper we know that Delta likes to have a choke hold on capacity to keep fares at the highest level they can. So bigger planes mean mores seats meaning that that may reduce the revenue per seat if they have to lower fares to fill the bigger aircraft.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
FlyGuyNash
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sun Sep 27, 2020 12:20 am

Boof02671 wrote:
And Delta won’t be ordering any planes, they are in negotiations with Airbus to defer and delay 40 planes


Just because they are negotiating a deferral now does not mean that they won't order more planes for a delivery of 2023 and beyond.
 
DeltaMD95
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sun Sep 27, 2020 12:26 am

The 717 2025 retirement puts more stock into the prediction that the MD-11F will outlast the 717 as the final operational Long Beach designed, Douglas airliner.
Did you know that a Boeing 717-200 is really a McDonnell Douglas MD95-30? ;-)
 
TonyClifton
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sun Sep 27, 2020 12:38 am

Boof02671 wrote:
And Delta won’t be ordering any planes, they are in negotiations with Airbus to defer and delay 40 planes

I wouldn’t be shocked if part of the negotiation means Delta takes some other customers slack down the line. Airbus plays nice with deferrals and no significant penalties, in turn, Delta steps up on someone else’s cancellations or deferrals. Would be a win-win.
 
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Antaras
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Re: Delta announced to phase out 717, 763 & CRJ200.

Sun Sep 27, 2020 12:45 am

So...everyone is guessing that Boeing is scooping the chance and offering a nice 788 deal to DL???

Well I am predicting that DL will acquire around 20x B788 to replace the old B763 and A332
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:

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