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JoseSalazar
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:14 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
While nothing is set in stone, some of the reasons RJ's and small turboprops were not a good replacement for 717's (all this is pre-COVID analysis, mind you) is that 717's were also hauling stuff between islands, and RJ's and ATR/Dash-8 are not great in that department. Another point were surfboards -- HA accepted those for interisland flying. Again, neither RJ's nor turboprops work well here. So, small mainline planes were an appropriate answer.
Now, with JT8D flying almost gone, BR700 is pretty much all that is left in the Western aviation (Ukraine would gladly offer D-436 to power anything, including An-148, but HA would not necessarily bite) that can cope with HA's operation mode of quick turns after short flights. And 717 is the only commercial jet using BR700.

Basically, if they choose anything smaller than 717, they'll have to increase the number of flights, if only to haul stuff separately from pax. If they choose anything bigger than 717, they'll need to accept long turns, to allow engine cooling. A vicious version of "Goldilocks" fairy-tale, except the porridge that's "not too hot and not too cold" is about to be taken away, with no replacement in sight.

Not that all the following make sense, but from an engine standpoint I would think they could use 737NG, airbus CEOs, or E175/190/195s E1 and quick turn with those just as effectively as 717. I was thinking an order of E175 E1s for bulk frequency interisland stuff, then mix in A321NEOs on a few higher demand routes/times, though I have no idea how that would affect their west coast a321NEO scheduling if they used some for interisland duty. Or maybe grab some of the many E190/195s hitting the used market for a song...low acquisition costs but higher maintenance costs. Or maybe some A319s since it’s an existing type for them...those could in theory also be rotated through to the west coast for some flights. I’m also curious about the 175-E2, seems like that engine may be able to handle quicker turns from some of the stuff I’ve read. But I wouldn’t want to be buy/use a new engine in a salty environment without a lot of existing data. Or maybe some of delta’s, but that seems to be a shorter term solution.


Maybe it was not worded clearly. HA's engine issue is not only that the ground turns are short. It's also that the hops are short. You are in a take-off mode, you are climbing, and then you are immediately descending, and then you are on the ground, preparing for the next takeoff. These engines don't have a luxury of a couple of hours in cold air at 38 000 feet at cruise speed. They are basically run like racecar engines, as HA interisland mode of operation is an almost continuous abuse. BR700 series takes this abuse relatively well, while 717 body carries Douglas DNA -- which means it can take a lot of cycles. Nobody builds planes like that anymore, and no-one else is keen to design another engine, tailored for these requirements.
It doesn't mean 717 is irreplaceable. It just means that any replacement, as of now, is inferior to status quo. In chess, you call this zugzwang -- any move you make leads to a deterioration, vs. your current situation.


CRJs do a ton of very short hops/quick turns and their motors seem to hold up ok. I would think E175s are also able to run those types of short flight cycles ok with a motor similar to a CRJ. B6 runs their E190s on a lot of short stuff, much of which is similar in length to some of the Hawaiian 717 stuff, and pre-covid had quite a high utilization. Would those engines/airframes work for that mission?
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:40 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
Not that all the following make sense, but from an engine standpoint I would think they could use 737NG, airbus CEOs, or E175/190/195s E1 and quick turn with those just as effectively as 717. I was thinking an order of E175 E1s for bulk frequency interisland stuff, then mix in A321NEOs on a few higher demand routes/times, though I have no idea how that would affect their west coast a321NEO scheduling if they used some for interisland duty. Or maybe grab some of the many E190/195s hitting the used market for a song...low acquisition costs but higher maintenance costs. Or maybe some A319s since it’s an existing type for them...those could in theory also be rotated through to the west coast for some flights. I’m also curious about the 175-E2, seems like that engine may be able to handle quicker turns from some of the stuff I’ve read. But I wouldn’t want to be buy/use a new engine in a salty environment without a lot of existing data. Or maybe some of delta’s, but that seems to be a shorter term solution.


Maybe it was not worded clearly. HA's engine issue is not only that the ground turns are short. It's also that the hops are short. You are in a take-off mode, you are climbing, and then you are immediately descending, and then you are on the ground, preparing for the next takeoff. These engines don't have a luxury of a couple of hours in cold air at 38 000 feet at cruise speed. They are basically run like racecar engines, as HA interisland mode of operation is an almost continuous abuse. BR700 series takes this abuse relatively well, while 717 body carries Douglas DNA -- which means it can take a lot of cycles. Nobody builds planes like that anymore, and no-one else is keen to design another engine, tailored for these requirements.
It doesn't mean 717 is irreplaceable. It just means that any replacement, as of now, is inferior to status quo. In chess, you call this zugzwang -- any move you make leads to a deterioration, vs. your current situation.


CRJs do a ton of very short hops/quick turns and their motors seem to hold up ok. I would think E175s are also able to run those types of short flight cycles ok with a motor similar to a CRJ. B6 runs their E190s on a lot of short stuff, much of which is similar in length to some of the Hawaiian 717 stuff, and pre-covid had quite a high utilization. Would those engines/airframes work for that mission?

Possibly, but where do you put cargo (part of the revenue stream in its own right) and surf boards (part of the reason a certain, apparently important, demographic, books Hawaiian in the first place)?
You could run dedicated cargo flights, but that'd need more frames, more flights, more crews. You could run bigger frames, but these would need time on the ground, to cool down. Again, additional expenses.

It's not that there are no solutions. It's that alternative solutions are suboptimal.
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hawaiian717
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Sun Oct 04, 2020 11:19 pm

VSMUT wrote:
Are there any competitors to Hawaiian Airlines on intra-island services? What types do they fly?


Southwest Airlines flies 737-800s on interisland service but without the number of daily frequencies that Hawaiian offers. Mokulele Airlines flies the Cessna 208 primarily in tiny markets that can’t support the 717, either from a technical perspective (short runways) or a demand perspective (can’t fill anywhere close to 120 seats).
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:33 am

JoseSalazar wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
Not that all the following make sense, but from an engine standpoint I would think they could use 737NG, airbus CEOs, or E175/190/195s E1 and quick turn with those just as effectively as 717. I was thinking an order of E175 E1s for bulk frequency interisland stuff, then mix in A321NEOs on a few higher demand routes/times, though I have no idea how that would affect their west coast a321NEO scheduling if they used some for interisland duty. Or maybe grab some of the many E190/195s hitting the used market for a song...low acquisition costs but higher maintenance costs. Or maybe some A319s since it’s an existing type for them...those could in theory also be rotated through to the west coast for some flights. I’m also curious about the 175-E2, seems like that engine may be able to handle quicker turns from some of the stuff I’ve read. But I wouldn’t want to be buy/use a new engine in a salty environment without a lot of existing data. Or maybe some of delta’s, but that seems to be a shorter term solution.


Maybe it was not worded clearly. HA's engine issue is not only that the ground turns are short. It's also that the hops are short. You are in a take-off mode, you are climbing, and then you are immediately descending, and then you are on the ground, preparing for the next takeoff. These engines don't have a luxury of a couple of hours in cold air at 38 000 feet at cruise speed. They are basically run like racecar engines, as HA interisland mode of operation is an almost continuous abuse. BR700 series takes this abuse relatively well, while 717 body carries Douglas DNA -- which means it can take a lot of cycles. Nobody builds planes like that anymore, and no-one else is keen to design another engine, tailored for these requirements.
It doesn't mean 717 is irreplaceable. It just means that any replacement, as of now, is inferior to status quo. In chess, you call this zugzwang -- any move you make leads to a deterioration, vs. your current situation.


CRJs do a ton of very short hops/quick turns and their motors seem to hold up ok. I would think E175s are also able to run those types of short flight cycles ok with a motor similar to a CRJ. B6 runs their E190s on a lot of short stuff, much of which is similar in length to some of the Hawaiian 717 stuff, and pre-covid had quite a high utilization. Would those engines/airframes work for that mission?


Sorry, but that's just not true. No CRJ or E175 in the Lower 48 is operating 16-18 20-30 minutes flights per day.

They do some shorter sectors, sure, but they will also do 60-90 minute flights as well, and even with high utilisation must aren't doing more than about 8-10 sectors per day. There is no operation anywhere in the world quite like Hawaiian's inter-island flights.

The CF34 engine on the E170/190 is really not up the the task, neither is the CFM56 on the 737 NG. Nothing on the A320 is suitable, I admit to not being sure about the CRJ, but doubt it.

Yes the engines can do it, but not 18 times every day for their entire service life.
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Northeast748
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Mon Oct 05, 2020 5:06 am

Boeing will collect all of their owned ones for "Amazon Prime Air Express" :rotfl: :stirthepot: :duck:
 
Sokes
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:16 am

VSMUT wrote:
Sokes wrote:
The CRJ 900 wasn't mentioned yet. As a plane that is sparsely used, what's wrong with it?
I suppose the replacement has to be either E Jet or CRJ 900.


The CRJ is just about going out of production (last fuselage was delivered to the assembly line in the start of September), but used examples can be found. I understand that the CRJ-1000 had some issues in the US regarding common type rating with the other CRJs, but for Hawaiian that wouldn't be an issue if they just use the -1000. Wasn't Garuda phasing out its CRJ-1000s?

I had Delta in mind when I wrote "sparsely used".


bennett123 wrote:
Perhaps best plan for HA is to buy a big pack of spares, (same as DL did) then buy the B717 as they ae retired at scrap prices.

By that time, Airbus and Boeing will have delivered lots of A320NEO and B737MAX and there will be lots of cheap A320CEO and B737NG available. With lots of island hopping, fuel efficiency is less important than CAPEX.

From what I figure from this thread:
For island hopping it's the right plane even at high utilization.
For airlines it's an o.k. plane because of near zero capital cost if it's used only sometimes.

I conclude you are right.
HA should buy many of them.
Delta can replace them with second hand E190s.

What other significant short hops island traffic in the world?
Indonesia has lots of islands. But than distances in Indonesia aren't exactly short.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:46 pm

Sokes wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Sokes wrote:
The CRJ 900 wasn't mentioned yet. As a plane that is sparsely used, what's wrong with it?
I suppose the replacement has to be either E Jet or CRJ 900.


The CRJ is just about going out of production (last fuselage was delivered to the assembly line in the start of September), but used examples can be found. I understand that the CRJ-1000 had some issues in the US regarding common type rating with the other CRJs, but for Hawaiian that wouldn't be an issue if they just use the -1000. Wasn't Garuda phasing out its CRJ-1000s?

I had Delta in mind when I wrote "sparsely used".


bennett123 wrote:
Perhaps best plan for HA is to buy a big pack of spares, (same as DL did) then buy the B717 as they ae retired at scrap prices.

By that time, Airbus and Boeing will have delivered lots of A320NEO and B737MAX and there will be lots of cheap A320CEO and B737NG available. With lots of island hopping, fuel efficiency is less important than CAPEX.

From what I figure from this thread:
For island hopping it's the right plane even at high utilization.
For airlines it's an o.k. plane because of near zero capital cost if it's used only sometimes.

I conclude you are right.
HA should buy many of them.
Delta can replace them with second hand E190s.

What other significant short hops island traffic in the world?
Indonesia has lots of islands. But than distances in Indonesia aren't exactly short.

The cost to maintain aircraft in high utilization duty is far more than the purchase/finance costs. HA will have an issue economically maintaining the 717 after Delta stops. For example, if HA opperates 18 717s, they must overhaul 18 BR715s per year.

In Delta's extreamly low utilization, they would have been overhauling engines about every 4 to 4.5 years or anywhere between 30 to 50 per year. Plus Delta would be sending about 12 per year through a heavy maintenance visit. HA put on the cycles, but only needed a few HMVs in any year. Those parts were already on a rebuild every 15 month cycle due to low demand.

How us HA going to economically incentivise vendors to overhaul parts? HA can opperate off green time parts for a while, but only until 2027 (if Qanras/Cobham keeps flying 717s) to 2030 (if the Aussie 717s are replaced by YE 2030). Now this is my back of the envelope math.

But at some point, HA must replace due to maintaince economics losing economics if scale. An airline can opperate odd types in low utilization duty forever. This is the extreame of high utilization duty.

Oh, Delta wouldn't buy E190s in my opinion. Due to pilot rules and the other DL costs, the E2-195 is the smallest. Due to how cheaply DL can support a varied fleet, Embraer could get in, for the right price. But it must compete with A220 options.

HA has years, so I wouldn't rule out the MRJ.

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TonyClifton
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:58 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Sokes wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

The CRJ is just about going out of production (last fuselage was delivered to the assembly line in the start of September), but used examples can be found. I understand that the CRJ-1000 had some issues in the US regarding common type rating with the other CRJs, but for Hawaiian that wouldn't be an issue if they just use the -1000. Wasn't Garuda phasing out its CRJ-1000s?

I had Delta in mind when I wrote "sparsely used".


bennett123 wrote:
Perhaps best plan for HA is to buy a big pack of spares, (same as DL did) then buy the B717 as they ae retired at scrap prices.

By that time, Airbus and Boeing will have delivered lots of A320NEO and B737MAX and there will be lots of cheap A320CEO and B737NG available. With lots of island hopping, fuel efficiency is less important than CAPEX.

From what I figure from this thread:
For island hopping it's the right plane even at high utilization.
For airlines it's an o.k. plane because of near zero capital cost if it's used only sometimes.

I conclude you are right.
HA should buy many of them.
Delta can replace them with second hand E190s.

What other significant short hops island traffic in the world?
Indonesia has lots of islands. But than distances in Indonesia aren't exactly short.

The cost to maintain aircraft in high utilization duty is far more than the purchase/finance costs. HA will have an issue economically maintaining the 717 after Delta stops. For example, if HA opperates 18 717s, they must overhaul 18 BR715s per year.

In Delta's extreamly low utilization, they would have been overhauling engines about every 4 to 4.5 years or anywhere between 30 to 50 per year. Plus Delta would be sending about 12 per year through a heavy maintenance visit. HA put on the cycles, but only needed a few HMVs in any year. Those parts were already on a rebuild every 15 month cycle due to low demand.

How us HA going to economically incentivise vendors to overhaul parts? HA can opperate off green time parts for a while, but only until 2027 (if Qanras/Cobham keeps flying 717s) to 2030 (if the Aussie 717s are replaced by YE 2030). Now this is my back of the envelope math.

But at some point, HA must replace due to maintaince economics losing economics if scale. An airline can opperate odd types in low utilization duty forever. This is the extreame of high utilization duty.

Oh, Delta wouldn't buy E190s in my opinion. Due to pilot rules and the other DL costs, the E2-195 is the smallest. Due to how cheaply DL can support a varied fleet, Embraer could get in, for the right price. But it must compete with A220 options.

HA has years, so I wouldn't rule out the MRJ.

Lightsaber

Delta already had the chance to fly the ERJ-190. Back in 2015 as part of a 739 order, I believe used Air Canada tails. Cancelled later that year, and A220 ordered instead- definitely a more forward thinking move.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Mon Oct 05, 2020 5:29 pm

Sokes wrote:
What other significant short hops island traffic in the world?
Indonesia has lots of islands. But than distances in Indonesia aren't exactly short.


The Balearic and Canary islands, the Aegean and Greek islands, up and down the Norwegian coast, French Polynesia and the Channel Islands, to name a few. I'm sure there are a few in the Philippines and the Caribbean too.
 
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Rajahdhani
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Mon Oct 05, 2020 7:26 pm

VSMUT wrote:
Sokes wrote:
What other significant short hops island traffic in the world?
Indonesia has lots of islands. But than distances in Indonesia aren't exactly short.


The Balearic and Canary islands, the Aegean and Greek islands, up and down the Norwegian coast, French Polynesia and the Channel Islands, to name a few. I'm sure there are a few in the Philippines and the Caribbean too.


Yes, and to their credit - there was a caveat stating that many of those routes were operated also, by Turboprops, which are probably better suited for those metrics/needs anyway. Even in this case, HA operates 7 (4 passenger ATR-42, 3 cargo only ATR-72{operated by Empire Airlines}) turboprops already. As was also discussed above the larger cabin size of the 717 made flight economics easier as it also took more passengers, less time, and greater cargo - than would a Turboprop (with the 'lesser' passenger experience).
 
MO11
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:11 pm

TonyClifton wrote:
Delta already had the chance to fly the ERJ-190. Back in 2015 as part of a 739 order, I believe used Air Canada tails. Cancelled later that year, and A220 ordered instead- definitely a more forward thinking move.


Actually, Delta accepted delivery of those airplanes, although none left Pinal Airpark before being sold to Nordic Aviation Capital. A handful were remarketed; most went to the parts department.
 
TonyClifton
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:36 pm

MO11 wrote:
TonyClifton wrote:
Delta already had the chance to fly the ERJ-190. Back in 2015 as part of a 739 order, I believe used Air Canada tails. Cancelled later that year, and A220 ordered instead- definitely a more forward thinking move.


Actually, Delta accepted delivery of those airplanes, although none left Pinal Airpark before being sold to Nordic Aviation Capital. A handful were remarketed; most went to the parts department.

The 190 isn’t a great aircraft for what Delta wanted. More costly than a 76 seat RJ to run by a by more than what you gain in capacity, range only a little better. Most major 190 operators have looked to cull their fleets (AA, AC, JB soon). That’s not to say the 190 is bad, it’s just very much a glorified RJ compared to the A220 which truly bridges the between CRJ/ERJ and 737/320. Hawaiian is stuck, they need a niche plane, but manufactures don’t need a niche customer. I’m of the option they’ll need to find a way to somehow get some of the 321s into island hops in between the ocean crossings, perhaps to balance out the cycles. If they can stomach waiting into the later half of the decade, maybe the MRJ finds a place?
 
VSMUT
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:26 pm

Rajahdhani wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Sokes wrote:
What other significant short hops island traffic in the world?
Indonesia has lots of islands. But than distances in Indonesia aren't exactly short.


The Balearic and Canary islands, the Aegean and Greek islands, up and down the Norwegian coast, French Polynesia and the Channel Islands, to name a few. I'm sure there are a few in the Philippines and the Caribbean too.


Yes, and to their credit - there was a caveat stating that many of those routes were operated also, by Turboprops, which are probably better suited for those metrics/needs anyway. Even in this case, HA operates 7 (4 passenger ATR-42, 3 cargo only ATR-72{operated by Empire Airlines}) turboprops already. As was also discussed above the larger cabin size of the 717 made flight economics easier as it also took more passengers, less time, and greater cargo - than would a Turboprop (with the 'lesser' passenger experience).


Several of those see regular CRJ and E-jet service. A few see 737s or A320's.
 
n7371f
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Tue Oct 06, 2020 3:46 am

Delta sold them...to Nordic. Many are at TUS. And many will end up at Breeze. Waiting for finalization for leases.

MO11 wrote:
TonyClifton wrote:
Delta already had the chance to fly the ERJ-190. Back in 2015 as part of a 739 order, I believe used Air Canada tails. Cancelled later that year, and A220 ordered instead- definitely a more forward thinking move.


Actually, Delta accepted delivery of those airplanes, although none left Pinal Airpark before being sold to Nordic Aviation Capital. A handful were remarketed; most went to the parts department.
 
rlwynn
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:10 am

RyanairGuru wrote:


The CF34 engine on the E170/190 is really not up the the task, neither is the CFM56 on the 737 NG. Nothing on the A320 is suitable, I admit to not being sure about the CRJ, but doubt it.

Yes the engines can do it, but not 18 times every day for their entire service life.


Why is this and how do you know this? Do you have a link?
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rlwynn
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:52 am

And I mean the CF34 not the others.
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reltney
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Sat Oct 10, 2020 1:19 am

Rajahdhani wrote:
Northwest1988 wrote:
And just think... a few months ago the 717 was supposedly supposed to get seat back entertainment.


2020 has been a year, has it not?

May I use this as my quote of the month?

Imagine going back even further, watching those first 717s touch down at ATL. What a history, no? With them gone, so is any reminder of AirTran.



Not at all...AirTran will live a long time at ATL. The 737 they cracked up going off the side and down the embankment is being used by the fire department. It’s in the lower level on the north side of 28 approach end. The engines are off and it’s bent up but I guess it’s perfect for the crash rescue people.

Ironically I restore planes at the former CEO of AirTran old Hangar. Joe Corr owned aircorr and they have some of the best Oshkosh winners. It was his side hobby to restore planes.

Cheers!
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BettaFish7
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:16 pm

hawaiian717 wrote:
Rajahdhani wrote:
DL pilots certified can move to Hawaii.


This would happen only if DL pilots are laid off and HA is hiring. Airline pilot pay is very closely tied to seniority, so pilots will stay with the airline and retrain to another type rather than move to another airline and start out at the bottom of the seniority list and pay scale in order to continue flying the same type of aircraft. The general exception is regional airline pilots will typically move up to a larger airline at some point as regional airline pilot pay scales tend to top out fairly low.


From an enthusiast POV, even though the 717 is the last newest Douglas jet, the pay-cut to essentially be a new-hire isn't worth the Douglas-era nostalgia. It's still a young a/c like the MD11, and I wonder if MD11 pilots quit their jobs to work for FEDEX to say on it.
Aviation history proves the importance of R&D over profit-based complacency.
 
Insertnamehere
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:16 pm

There is no perfect replacement for HA. No other aircraft can take the abuse.

Personally, I could see HA getting A320s or A319s as you get the benefit of commonality with their A321NEOs at the expense of less frequencies.
 
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Rajahdhani
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:22 pm

BettaFish7 wrote:
hawaiian717 wrote:
Rajahdhani wrote:
DL pilots certified can move to Hawaii.


This would happen only if DL pilots are laid off and HA is hiring. Airline pilot pay is very closely tied to seniority, so pilots will stay with the airline and retrain to another type rather than move to another airline and start out at the bottom of the seniority list and pay scale in order to continue flying the same type of aircraft. The general exception is regional airline pilots will typically move up to a larger airline at some point as regional airline pilot pay scales tend to top out fairly low.


From an enthusiast POV, even though the 717 is the last newest Douglas jet, the pay-cut to essentially be a new-hire isn't worth the Douglas-era nostalgia. It's still a young a/c like the MD11, and I wonder if MD11 pilots quit their jobs to work for FEDEX to say on it.


.,,and thanks for brining it home in that way for me. The exchanges above really hammered out why the 717, at HA in this way - is the end of the line. Earlier, I asked and it was touched upon, that for a specific fit/pool of pilots - the 717, at HA - is the flying that they want, and so they bid on that aircraft. A pilot might not want to fly trans-pacific, or the longer hauls - and so, if they want to live in HA, it's a good fit. An aside for me was to consider what would happen to the 717 pilots left at DL, but it was explained that they would bid for other work at DL and keep their seniority (admittedly in a perfect world, not today's). I wasn't fully understanding at that time of the entirety of the equation - and thank you all for helping explain it a bit better.

I'll admit it - she is my baby. The 717 will always hold a special place in my personal aviation history. That said, it will be sad to see them leave - but the show must go on. Let's hope that the people at HA get the chance, space and time - to figure this out well, and in a way that really suits the average travelers on the route. The future had pretty big shoes to fill.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:49 am

Insertnamehere wrote:
There is no perfect replacement for HA. No other aircraft can take the abuse.

Personally, I could see HA getting A320s or A319s as you get the benefit of commonality with their A321NEOs at the expense of less frequencies.

Aren't the ATRs and QSeries good for this kind of abuse?
 
USAirKid
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:55 am

WayexTDI wrote:
Insertnamehere wrote:
There is no perfect replacement for HA. No other aircraft can take the abuse.

Personally, I could see HA getting A320s or A319s as you get the benefit of commonality with their A321NEOs at the expense of less frequencies.

Aren't the ATRs and QSeries good for this kind of abuse?


Yes. But as discussed upthread there is the passenger preference for jets, and the need for lots of cargo capacity, including odd sized items like surfboards.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:14 am

USAirKid wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
Insertnamehere wrote:
There is no perfect replacement for HA. No other aircraft can take the abuse.

Personally, I could see HA getting A320s or A319s as you get the benefit of commonality with their A321NEOs at the expense of less frequencies.

Aren't the ATRs and QSeries good for this kind of abuse?


Yes. But as discussed upthread there is the passenger preference for jets, and the need for lots of cargo capacity, including odd sized items like surfboards.

And again, if the choice is prop or swim, the pax will chose props.
I don't buy this "we hate props" thing; pax have proven over and over again they'll chose cheaper. So, if the choice is between expensive jet flight, cheaper prop flight or no flight at all, pax will chose cheaper (even if it has to be prop).
As far as "odd sized cargo like surfboard", a typical surfboard is less than 8ft long, small enough to fit in an ATR. And, honestly, how many of them are they per flight? Sounds like a stereotype that every Hawaiian is carrying a surfboard...
 
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:03 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
USAirKid wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
Aren't the ATRs and QSeries good for this kind of abuse?


Yes. But as discussed upthread there is the passenger preference for jets, and the need for lots of cargo capacity, including odd sized items like surfboards.

And again, if the choice is prop or swim, the pax will chose props.
I don't buy this "we hate props" thing; pax have proven over and over again they'll chose cheaper. So, if the choice is between expensive jet flight, cheaper prop flight or no flight at all, pax will chose cheaper (even if it has to be prop).
As far as "odd sized cargo like surfboard", a typical surfboard is less than 8ft long, small enough to fit in an ATR. And, honestly, how many of them are they per flight? Sounds like a stereotype that every Hawaiian is carrying a surfboard...

I can go only by discussion and observation, but as a Longboarder, I've typically seen 2 or 3 per flight (I look). However, my 'longboards' are all below 9 feet and I rent on the islands, but I do see them. It isn't the Hawaiians, it is the tourists doing their surfing vacation island to island and Hawaiian makes bank shipping boards, max 115 inches:

https://hawaiianair.custhelp.com/app/an ... ilar-items

The MRJ seems to be the best fit for HA. There aren't that many 717s out there. Only HA has a unique enough situation (DL already has the A220 on property and Volotea the A319). Qantas is lower utilization, so they could go A220 for range or used.

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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:12 pm

I suppose, the big question is that if HA bought all the airframes and spares as they become available, how soon will they need a replacement.
 
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:19 pm

bennett123 wrote:
I suppose, the big question is that if HA bought all the airframes and spares as they become available, how soon will they need a replacement.



Upthread a lot of material on this. Many items "calendar out", once installed on a plane, instead of cycling out. So spare parts availability will fall of the cliff, once large-scale part manufacturing becomes a thing of the past.
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:49 pm

bennett123 wrote:
I suppose, the big question is that if HA bought all the airframes and spares as they become available, how soon will they need a replacement.


Beyond the answer provided by Phosphorus, one might ask why HA would spend a bunch of money (that they don't have) to buy 717 frames knowing that the end of 717s is still coming? It takes a lot of tech resources and $$$ tied up in inventory to keep old/orphaned aircraft flying. Delta had plenty of experience doing it (MD-88s, MD-90s, and before that DC-9s) and they didn't want to do it, making HA's problem that much bigger.

No disrespect to lightsaber but I wouldn't bet the future of HA on the MRJ. In-service date, performance, service network & longevity are all (no pun intended) up in the air on that. They could start getting some NGs or A32xceos for the least-difficult of the inter-island routes while reserving the 717s for most difficult routes and hoping for a better solution to become apparent (not a new engine - maybe more efficient used markets, or scheduling tricks).
 
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Wed Oct 14, 2020 3:06 pm

lightsaber wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
USAirKid wrote:

Yes. But as discussed upthread there is the passenger preference for jets, and the need for lots of cargo capacity, including odd sized items like surfboards.

And again, if the choice is prop or swim, the pax will chose props.
I don't buy this "we hate props" thing; pax have proven over and over again they'll chose cheaper. So, if the choice is between expensive jet flight, cheaper prop flight or no flight at all, pax will chose cheaper (even if it has to be prop).
As far as "odd sized cargo like surfboard", a typical surfboard is less than 8ft long, small enough to fit in an ATR. And, honestly, how many of them are they per flight? Sounds like a stereotype that every Hawaiian is carrying a surfboard...

I can go only by discussion and observation, but as a Longboarder, I've typically seen 2 or 3 per flight (I look). However, my 'longboards' are all below 9 feet and I rent on the islands, but I do see them. It isn't the Hawaiians, it is the tourists doing their surfing vacation island to island and Hawaiian makes bank shipping boards, max 115 inches:

https://hawaiianair.custhelp.com/app/an ... ilar-items

The MRJ seems to be the best fit for HA. There aren't that many 717s out there. Only HA has a unique enough situation (DL already has the A220 on property and Volotea the A319). Qantas is lower utilization, so they could go A220 for range or used.

Lightsaber

Fair enough.

However, I like it as no one ever respond to this:
I don't buy this "we hate props" thing; pax have proven over and over again they'll chose cheaper. So, if the choice is between expensive jet flight, cheaper prop flight or no flight at all, pax will chose cheaper (even if it has to be prop).

although we always hear the "there is the passenger preference for jets". I wish someone would discuss this instead of always throwing that argument in the discussion and never responding when confronted to the reality of "$ speaks louder".
 
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:28 pm

I think an issue with ATRs or Q400s would be the number of flights HA would have to operate. They were running 160 717 flights each day interisland. To get similar volume, that would have to nearly double with ATRs or Q400s. HNL and OGG were both already short on gates. I'm not sure HA would have the space, or if it would make sense to operate that volume of interisland flights.
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:42 pm

aloha73g wrote:
I think an issue with ATRs or Q400s would be the number of flights HA would have to operate. They were running 160 717 flights each day interisland. To get similar volume, that would have to nearly double with ATRs or Q400s. HNL and OGG were both already short on gates. I'm not sure HA would have the space, or if it would make sense to operate that volume of interisland flights.



Props are also weight-restricted and HA isn't known for bumping off people's bags (bags don't complain, but their owners will). Island Air had to give their customers a fair warning beforehand. Many local residents, mainly millennials, also look for a quick weekend or school break getaways and only care about the cheapest tickets, even if it means only having a backpack the entire time. I'm not sure what lead to Island Air's problems, but its sad since they could have been the leader in cheaper prop flights between the islands. WN's model of rotating 737NG's between the islands and then back to the mainland gives the NG a somewhat unfair advantage over the 717. I wonder if Aloha Airlines considered doing that before getting rid of -300/400's. Maybe HA could get the A320 (or 737NG if Boeing cuts them a sweet deal) and rotate them between the islands and the mainland, since it at least has come commonality with their Airbus fleet, though weight may be an issue.
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:58 pm

Phosphorous/MiFlyer12

I was not suggesting it as a long term solution.

My thinking for the short term is that it is a type that HA have experience of and that airframes and parts could be obtained at near scrap value.

DL would have no further use for them. Whilst they would need to consider the extent of competition that they face from HA, it would provide much needed cash.

For Volotea, competition would not be an issue. For QF, again competition would not be an issue, but availability of new equipment and usefulness of B717 might be.

For the longer term, A320 could be an option for longer routes, (giving commonality with A321 they have already).

For interisland hops, it might have to be turboprops, and the passengers could decide if they want to walk or go by boat.

As Richard Nixon said, 'when you have a man by the balls, his hear and mind soon follow'
 
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:47 pm

Island Air was flying the Q-400 inter island back in 2008 when I took my only Island Air flight. Shortly after the went to ATR's, then went back to Q-400's. From Wiki:

Island Air ceased all operations on 10 November 2017 after 37 years of service between Hawaii's islands, carrying 13% of intra-Hawaii seats in the first three quarters of 2017, competing against Hawaiian Airlines carrying 80%. For the second quarter of 2017, Island Air posted an operating loss of $4.9 million and a net loss of $8.2 million, and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on 17 October as it couldn't find new investors to satisfy lessors Wells Fargo Bank Northwest and Elix 8 who want to repossess its five Bombardier Q400s, which replaced five ATRs.


I lived in HNL for about 8 months back in 2008, at the time there was Aloha, HA, Island, and Go!, which was flying the CRJ-200. A.net discussions during that period about the brutal conditions taking off, the short flight, and the short turn where the start of one cycle is like 45 min after the last cycle, no chance to properly heat up and cool down. From memory it was the shaft bowing once stopped would close the clearances causing lots of wear. Aloha ate up a lot of NG engines before going back to the 737 classics. HA went with the MD's and 717's.

I think in the 2005 to 2010 period basically every plane flying was tried out in this service. None of them seemed to take hold. Go! failed with RJ's, Island failed with both the Q400 and ATR, Aloha failed with the 737NG, don't remember any mention of V2500 or CF34 engines being tried, but if a likely success I believe it would have.
 
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:52 pm

bennett123 wrote:
Phosphorous/MiFlyer12

I was not suggesting it as a long term solution.

My thinking for the short term is that it is a type that HA have experience of and that airframes and parts could be obtained at near scrap value.

DL would have no further use for them. Whilst they would need to consider the extent of competition that they face from HA, it would provide much needed cash.

For Volotea, competition would not be an issue. For QF, again competition would not be an issue, but availability of new equipment and usefulness of B717 might be.

For the longer term, A320 could be an option for longer routes, (giving commonality with A321 they have already).

For interisland hops, it might have to be turboprops, and the passengers could decide if they want to walk or go by boat.

As Richard Nixon said, 'when you have a man by the balls, his hear and mind soon follow'

The issue for HA will be parts. Due to their high frequencies, they'll go through them first.

Just a note, there are so many used aircraft available QF has more options than they have need (there is absolutely no worry about new equipment due to the pile up at Airbus and in particular Boeing).

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seat1a
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:07 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
Island Air was flying the Q-400 inter island back in 2008 when I took my only Island Air flight. Shortly after the went to ATR's, then went back to Q-400's. From Wiki:

Island Air ceased all operations on 10 November 2017 after 37 years of service between Hawaii's islands, carrying 13% of intra-Hawaii seats in the first three quarters of 2017, competing against Hawaiian Airlines carrying 80%. For the second quarter of 2017, Island Air posted an operating loss of $4.9 million and a net loss of $8.2 million, and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on 17 October as it couldn't find new investors to satisfy lessors Wells Fargo Bank Northwest and Elix 8 who want to repossess its five Bombardier Q400s, which replaced five ATRs.


I lived in HNL for about 8 months back in 2008, at the time there was Aloha, HA, Island, and Go!, which was flying the CRJ-200. A.net discussions during that period about the brutal conditions taking off, the short flight, and the short turn where the start of one cycle is like 45 min after the last cycle, no chance to properly heat up and cool down. From memory it was the shaft bowing once stopped would close the clearances causing lots of wear. Aloha ate up a lot of NG engines before going back to the 737 classics. HA went with the MD's and 717's.

I think in the 2005 to 2010 period basically every plane flying was tried out in this service. None of them seemed to take hold. Go! failed with RJ's, Island failed with both the Q400 and ATR, Aloha failed with the 737NG, don't remember any mention of V2500 or CF34 engines being tried, but if a likely success I believe it would have.


Would ATR's be a solution? Can they do quick turns? Perhaps when the economy improves, they can run 12-15 HNL-OGG.
 
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:42 am

seat1a wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
Island Air was flying the Q-400 inter island back in 2008 when I took my only Island Air flight. Shortly after the went to ATR's, then went back to Q-400's. From Wiki:

Island Air ceased all operations on 10 November 2017 after 37 years of service between Hawaii's islands, carrying 13% of intra-Hawaii seats in the first three quarters of 2017, competing against Hawaiian Airlines carrying 80%. For the second quarter of 2017, Island Air posted an operating loss of $4.9 million and a net loss of $8.2 million, and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on 17 October as it couldn't find new investors to satisfy lessors Wells Fargo Bank Northwest and Elix 8 who want to repossess its five Bombardier Q400s, which replaced five ATRs.


I lived in HNL for about 8 months back in 2008, at the time there was Aloha, HA, Island, and Go!, which was flying the CRJ-200. A.net discussions during that period about the brutal conditions taking off, the short flight, and the short turn where the start of one cycle is like 45 min after the last cycle, no chance to properly heat up and cool down. From memory it was the shaft bowing once stopped would close the clearances causing lots of wear. Aloha ate up a lot of NG engines before going back to the 737 classics. HA went with the MD's and 717's.

I think in the 2005 to 2010 period basically every plane flying was tried out in this service. None of them seemed to take hold. Go! failed with RJ's, Island failed with both the Q400 and ATR, Aloha failed with the 737NG, don't remember any mention of V2500 or CF34 engines being tried, but if a likely success I believe it would have.


Would ATR's be a solution? Can they do quick turns? Perhaps when the economy improves, they can run 12-15 HNL-OGG.


Island Air went from Q-400's to ATR's, went back to Q-400's 4 years later. Not encouraging.
 
BettaFish7
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:47 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Island Air was flying the Q-400 inter island back in 2008 when I took my only Island Air flight. Shortly after the went to ATR's, then went back to Q-400's. From Wiki:

Island Air ceased all operations on 10 November 2017 after 37 years of service between Hawaii's islands, carrying 13% of intra-Hawaii seats in the first three quarters of 2017, competing against Hawaiian Airlines carrying 80%. For the second quarter of 2017, Island Air posted an operating loss of $4.9 million and a net loss of $8.2 million, and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on 17 October as it couldn't find new investors to satisfy lessors Wells Fargo Bank Northwest and Elix 8 who want to repossess its five Bombardier Q400s, which replaced five ATRs.


I lived in HNL for about 8 months back in 2008, at the time there was Aloha, HA, Island, and Go!, which was flying the CRJ-200. A.net discussions during that period about the brutal conditions taking off, the short flight, and the short turn where the start of one cycle is like 45 min after the last cycle, no chance to properly heat up and cool down. From memory it was the shaft bowing once stopped would close the clearances causing lots of wear. Aloha ate up a lot of NG engines before going back to the 737 classics. HA went with the MD's and 717's.

I think in the 2005 to 2010 period basically every plane flying was tried out in this service. None of them seemed to take hold. Go! failed with RJ's, Island failed with both the Q400 and ATR, Aloha failed with the 737NG, don't remember any mention of V2500 or CF34 engines being tried, but if a likely success I believe it would have.


Hawaii's aviation expert Peter Foreman said that Go!'s CRJ200's were far too expensive to operate economically. First, the CRJ200 needed a higher load factor than AQ's and HA's bigger planes, because they only seated 50 people. Secondly, the cost of a new CRJ200 is around 3/4 (or something like that, but you can't get 2 CRJ200'S for 1 717) the price of a new 717 when factoring in inflation. I guess the 717 isn't that much more expensive because it's already using the tried and true DC9 design and McD/Boeing had economies of scale with all it's parts to drive the price down. It seems as though it'd only operate economically on instead farther routes that just didn't have the demand of the 717's capcity. Unfortunately, smaller doesn't always mean cheaper, but fortunately props are much cheaper than jets. Go! apparently "delayed" plans for new CRJ900's (anyone familiar with the AQ shutdown can guess why), so we don't know how they would've operated in the islands.

IF it's true that the 732 ate too much fuel on island-hops and that they actually considered the Avro RJ's, i don't get why Aloha didn't take a risk and just get them, even if there's no commonality with the 737NG's. Unfortunately today, it's one or the other, prop/regional or a 737/A320. Except for HA's market, the 717 has lost it's niche, but also partly due to it not being produced and completely updated today. I wish the McD management that carried on to Boeing after the merger would have had a soft-side to the MD-95 and would have made the a 717NG series.
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hawaiian717
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:44 pm

BettaFish7 wrote:
IF it's true that the 732 ate too much fuel on island-hops and that they actually considered the Avro RJ's, i don't get why Aloha didn't take a risk and just get them, even if there's no commonality with the 737NG's.


Aloha was interested in the Avro RJ-X version, but only three were produced (two prototypes and one production model intended for British European) before BAe terminated the project in December 2001.

https://www.flightglobal.com/british-eu ... 96.article
 
ScottB
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:59 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
And again, if the choice is prop or swim, the pax will chose props.
I don't buy this "we hate props" thing; pax have proven over and over again they'll chose cheaper. So, if the choice is between expensive jet flight, cheaper prop flight or no flight at all, pax will chose cheaper (even if it has to be prop).
As far as "odd sized cargo like surfboard", a typical surfboard is less than 8ft long, small enough to fit in an ATR. And, honestly, how many of them are they per flight? Sounds like a stereotype that every Hawaiian is carrying a surfboard...


Except that in Hawaii, history has also shown that there's potential for new competitors to enter the interisland market, like Go! and Southwest. If one expects that Southwest won't abandon the big interisland markets -- HNL-OGG/LIH/KOA/ITO -- HA doesn't have a lot of flexibility to underprice to draw traffic to a prop.
 
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:57 pm

ScottB wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
And again, if the choice is prop or swim, the pax will chose props.
I don't buy this "we hate props" thing; pax have proven over and over again they'll chose cheaper. So, if the choice is between expensive jet flight, cheaper prop flight or no flight at all, pax will chose cheaper (even if it has to be prop).
As far as "odd sized cargo like surfboard", a typical surfboard is less than 8ft long, small enough to fit in an ATR. And, honestly, how many of them are they per flight? Sounds like a stereotype that every Hawaiian is carrying a surfboard...


Except that in Hawaii, history has also shown that there's potential for new competitors to enter the interisland market, like Go! and Southwest. If one expects that Southwest won't abandon the big interisland markets -- HNL-OGG/LIH/KOA/ITO -- HA doesn't have a lot of flexibility to underprice to draw traffic to a prop.

New entrants will be confronted to the same constraints: short hops and high number of cycles.
If those new entrants cycle their machines between interisland hops and longer flights to the lower 48, then HA can do the same.

Whatever constraints HA faces, competition will face it too; and whatever smart moves to reduce strains on the machines the competition do, HA can do as well.
It's an even playing field.
 
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:58 pm

BettaFish7 wrote:
WN's model of rotating 737NG's between the islands and then back to the mainland gives the NG a somewhat unfair advantage over the 717. I wonder if Aloha Airlines considered doing that before getting rid of -300/400's. Maybe HA could get the A320 (or 737NG if Boeing cuts them a sweet deal) and rotate them between the islands and the mainland, since it at least has come commonality with their Airbus fleet, though weight may be an issue.


The -300/400's were only certified for 120-ETOPS, not enough to get to the mainland.

I'd be interested in seeing how long WN keeps a specific aircraft stays out of the inter-island market in HI before it's allowed back. Part of the advantage that WN has that AQ didn't have is an extensive domestic US market. I'm sure WN uses this to properly balance engine wear and minimize abuse of the CFM engines.

MIflyer12 wrote:
I suppose, the big question is that if HA bought all the airframes and spares as they become available, how soon will they need a replacement.


Beyond the answer provided by Phosphorus, one might ask why HA would spend a bunch of money (that they don't have) to buy 717 frames knowing that the end of 717s is still coming? It takes a lot of tech resources and $$$ tied up in inventory to keep old/orphaned aircraft flying. Delta had plenty of experience doing it (MD-88s, MD-90s, and before that DC-9s) and they didn't want to do it, making HA's problem that much bigger.
[/quote]

The related question is why would HA spend money now on a factory new plane when they only have a little bit of money? HA only has two bidders to outbid: Qantas and the scrappers. If they can get away with spending less money buying 717 frames and a bit more maintaining them, it allows them to kick the decision down the line so they don't have to worry about it.

I'm sure there are discussions between Boeing, DL, HA, and a few financers about this topic right now, and lots of spreadsheets running the numbers.

The DL planes are going to go somewhere, maybe they'll go to HA or to the scrappers.

(Or who knows Avatar airlines might buy them up! :duck:)
 
ScottB
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:05 am

WayexTDI wrote:
Whatever constraints HA faces, competition will face it too; and whatever smart moves to reduce strains on the machines the competition do, HA can do as well.
It's an even playing field.


Yes, but this is an entirely different situation than "the passengers will accept props or swim." HA will have to adapt its business model to the equipment available on the market.

USAirKid wrote:
The related question is why would HA spend money now on a factory new plane when they only have a little bit of money? HA only has two bidders to outbid: Qantas and the scrappers. If they can get away with spending less money buying 717 frames and a bit more maintaining them, it allows them to kick the decision down the line so they don't have to worry about it.


The big problem for HA is that certain parts won't be available from scrapped frames. If they're the last operator of the 717, the cost of parts may escalate beyond "a bit more." IIRC they don't do heavy maintenance on the 717s in Hawaii -- that's why you see images of those planes with ferry tanks in the cabin.
 
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hawaiian717
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:01 pm

USAirKid wrote:
I'd be interested in seeing how long WN keeps a specific aircraft stays out of the inter-island market in HI before it's allowed back. Part of the advantage that WN has that AQ didn't have is an extensive domestic US market. I'm sure WN uses this to properly balance engine wear and minimize abuse of the CFM engines.


You can probably track individual tail numbers to get an idea. While they have lots of 737-800s, only a small sub fleet is ETOPS 180 certified to do the hop to Hawaii. The -800 to Hawaii is supposed to be an interim measure though, the stated plan was switch Hawaii flying to the MAX 8. I don’t know how many of those will get ETOPS 180; it’s not a given that they all will. American does the same, not all of their A321s are ETOPS 180 approved to go to Hawaii.

In addition, Southwest doesn’t run as busy of an interisland schedule, so the planes can have more ground time between interisland flights.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Fate of 717 post Delta

Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:27 pm

ScottB wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
Whatever constraints HA faces, competition will face it too; and whatever smart moves to reduce strains on the machines the competition do, HA can do as well.
It's an even playing field.


Yes, but this is an entirely different situation than "the passengers will accept props or swim." HA will have to adapt its business model to the equipment available on the market.

Interesting that you're bringing this argument back up after first dissing it... Not sure where you want to go with that.

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