People have been saying this for years, that alliances don't have a great future, yet here we are and they still exist. Frequent flyers love them - which is evident from the years of sadness from Australians that there is no local Star Alliance domestic airline.
Depending on how REX goes with their Jet services, if they had 'moderate' success than there's the chance that ZL could be 'talked up' as a potential member.
ZL's predecessors were formerly Star Alliance affiliates through their now defunct former owner.
Star had publicly said they were not interested in 'chasing VA up' a few years ago on the back of the NZ boardroom bickering, and VA still has too much baggage to sort out which will likely be the case for the medium term foreseeable future.
Plus I suspect Bain won't be interested in signing up for Global Alliance memberships considering the costs of joining, and Bain's primary aim will always be maximising their return on investment. Diverting outside of their main aims such as Global Alliances won't be on Bain's mind.
Until the Global travel market is back to normal (which could take 3-5 years). I hardly think global alliances are worth much at all to airlines. I think you’ll see more airlines reviewing how much value they get from this alliances versus having partnership with an couple of key airlines to there business.
REX technically was apart of *A for an short period while it as Kendal (under AN)
Couldn't agree more, the alliances still exist but only because there's no value in leaving them yet.
Personally I think they're at the top of their bell curve, no one is rushing to join, but at the same time, if you're in already, there's no major incentive to leave yet - basically at a stalemate.
Although it seems that SkyTeam may be an annual cost model, so if any alliance was to suffer member losses, I'm thinking it'll be SkyTeam, China Southern, and the LATAM group have already kicked off the charge out the door on those ones, with Air Europa not far behind.
If there was any future value in alliances Aer Lingus and Virgin Atlantic would be in them, that they're not is telling.
The entire Connect programs of oneworld and Star Alliance really just made it look like they're still growing, but it's artificial growth.
AS joining oneworld is an anomaly.
There's zero chance ZL will join an alliance, the best is maybe off interline or codeshare on UA.