The 737 Max is the most scrutinized aircraft in service thus making it probably the safest.
I've thought about this and I predict the MAX will become the hottest seller in 2021 and especially 2022 simply because it has been so heavily scrutinized and provides one of the only new Boeing aircraft for that size.
True ... and I think the deals Boeing is willing to make on white tails will take care of that inventory sooner
This link has the -8MAX at $38 million, the -9 MAX at $41 million vs. low 40s for the A320NEO and upper 40s for the A321NEO (not the LR or xLR, which sell for a premium).
Per the link, the MAX discounting (and probably Covid19) has pulled A321NEO pricing down from the mid 50s (note, 2nd half of article a hidden bit on the MAX pricing that was snuck in):https://leehamnews.com/2020/11/09/ponti ... ts-plunge/Normal pricing is well into the $40m range for the 8 MAX and into the $50m range for the 9 MAX and A321.
In other words, about a 20% discount from before.
And:But we can comfortably say Boeing will make money. The margin gets squeezed.
I recall reading (but I cannot find the source), back when Boeing sold a -8MAX for ~$45 million, that was 30% profit.
Boeing will discount, but Ryanair complained not enough:https://leehamnews.com/2020/12/03/ryana ... to-boeing/
So Boeing will not cash flow as well as before, but should do ok.
Note: My opinion narrow body production will be too high in 2021 through 2024 hasn't changed. Boeing clawing back into the market will force Airbus to react and the loser will be holders of mid-age A320CEOs and 737NGs returned as well as the continued drop in pricing of older aircraft (See the source above for MAX pricing, the first half is aircraft pricing).
The ungrounding of the MAX is a shock to the market that will be felt for years. Just putting the already built back into service will drop 737NG used prices quickly. Add to that the need to restart production and that will cause airlines who need more lift to seriously look at the 737 due to the discounting. In turn, this will pull down A320CEO pricing (too many airlines operate both for anything else to happen). Thus eventually A320NEO and even more A321NEO pricing (see above link, it looks like A321NEO pricing has only dropped about 10% from Mid $50 millions to upper 40 millions, but it certainly has dropped).
Market, meet invisible hand... I find this fascinating as this will be a dam burst cascading into the market.
3 months without TV. The best decision of my life.