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Stitch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:43 pm

kalvado wrote:
Looks like we're pretty much on the same page and debating if that glass is half empty or 50% full....


You both agree it is water and you both agree that it occupies 50% of the volume of the glass. Now you're just arguing if it is Aquafina or Dasani. :)
Last edited by Stitch on Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
AABusDrvr
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:46 pm

morrisond wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
res cars and auto pilot. It is likely that many or most accidents happen from just a few seconds of inattention. My AP is protective in that sort of thing with its forward radar and braking, pedestrian and cycle as well as vehicle detection. Lane keeping and limited self steering are also helpful for a few seconds inattention. It will only get better in the years, even months ahead. Those features will be required as they are proven.

Planes tend to be more forgiving on autopilot, but it is foolhardy for such a system to require only a 4 second thinking to recover from a catrostrophic situation, especially at lower elevations. I understand that the new MCAS turns off if a bird knocks your pitot tube off the plane, and lets you, and lets you know you are flying the plane on your own.


And how long did both crashes have before they lost full control of the airplane? It was not 4 seconds - it was minutes in both cases that they had to figure things out and regain control of the aircraft.

Neither flight was unrecoverable even after more than one MCAS activation.

All it took was the effort of moving ones thumb to keep things in check.



In the "new" Runaway Stabilizer NNC, there is now a memory item reminding the crew to control aircraft pitch attitude and airspeed with the control column and thrust levers, after disengagement of the autopilot and auto throttles. I guess this should alleviate everyone's fears about crew competence issues now.
 
Whiteguy
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:52 pm

AABusDrvr wrote:
morrisond wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
res cars and auto pilot. It is likely that many or most accidents happen from just a few seconds of inattention. My AP is protective in that sort of thing with its forward radar and braking, pedestrian and cycle as well as vehicle detection. Lane keeping and limited self steering are also helpful for a few seconds inattention. It will only get better in the years, even months ahead. Those features will be required as they are proven.

Planes tend to be more forgiving on autopilot, but it is foolhardy for such a system to require only a 4 second thinking to recover from a catrostrophic situation, especially at lower elevations. I understand that the new MCAS turns off if a bird knocks your pitot tube off the plane, and lets you, and lets you know you are flying the plane on your own.


And how long did both crashes have before they lost full control of the airplane? It was not 4 seconds - it was minutes in both cases that they had to figure things out and regain control of the aircraft.

Neither flight was unrecoverable even after more than one MCAS activation.

All it took was the effort of moving ones thumb to keep things in check.



In the "new" Runaway Stabilizer NNC, there is now a memory item reminding the crew to control aircraft pitch attitude and airspeed with the control column and thrust levers, after disengagement of the autopilot and auto throttles. I guess this should alleviate everyone's fears about crew competence issues now.


Depending on the company, I guess, that was in the NNC prior to the grounding.
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Mon Dec 21, 2020 7:11 pm

Looks like a pre-Christmas push, Skyliner-aviation.de reports 4 MAX deliveries today (1 -9 to United, 1-8 to AA, 2 -8 to Southwest)
The last of the famous international playboys
 
AABusDrvr
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Mon Dec 21, 2020 7:21 pm

Whiteguy wrote:
AABusDrvr wrote:
morrisond wrote:

And how long did both crashes have before they lost full control of the airplane? It was not 4 seconds - it was minutes in both cases that they had to figure things out and regain control of the aircraft.

Neither flight was unrecoverable even after more than one MCAS activation.

All it took was the effort of moving ones thumb to keep things in check.



In the "new" Runaway Stabilizer NNC, there is now a memory item reminding the crew to control aircraft pitch attitude and airspeed with the control column and thrust levers, after disengagement of the autopilot and auto throttles. I guess this should alleviate everyone's fears about crew competence issues now.


Depending on the company, I guess, that was in the NNC prior to the grounding.



In my "pre grounding" QRH. there is what amounts to a note about controlling the pitch with the control column, and main electric trim. It's now a procedural step in the check list, and the part about controlling the airspeed with the thrust levers has been added. But I don't have a Boeing factory QRH either.

The conditional statement has also been amended to include the stabilizer trim running in a manner not appropriate for flight conditions. For everyone that didn't feel MCAS met the "continuous" statement in the old checklist.
 
Whiteguy
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Mon Dec 21, 2020 7:30 pm

AABusDrvr wrote:
Whiteguy wrote:
AABusDrvr wrote:


In the "new" Runaway Stabilizer NNC, there is now a memory item reminding the crew to control aircraft pitch attitude and airspeed with the control column and thrust levers, after disengagement of the autopilot and auto throttles. I guess this should alleviate everyone's fears about crew competence issues now.


Depending on the company, I guess, that was in the NNC prior to the grounding.



In my "pre grounding" QRH. there is what amounts to a note about controlling the pitch with the control column, and main electric trim. It's now a procedural step in the check list, and the part about controlling the airspeed with the thrust levers has been added. But I don't have a Boeing factory QRH either.

The conditional statement has also been amended to include the stabilizer trim running in a manner not appropriate for flight conditions. For everyone that didn't feel MCAS met the "continuous" statement in the old checklist.


I see what you’re referring to and the differences now, thanks
 
Speedy752
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Mon Dec 21, 2020 7:40 pm

REDHL wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
So instead of Boeing and the FAA doing the right thing and behaving above and beyond any reproach after the egregious clusterf#ck that was the MAX certification and debacle, they doubled down and kept doing shady deals under the table to rush their moneymaker back into service?

How contemptuous of their customers and passengers can these guys get?

Not that it should surprise anyone since none of these organizations ever fell on their sword after the truth became known. They just decided to bullsh#t their way through the whole thing with pathetic excuses and PR smokescreens.
The corporate culture at Boeing has not changed, and neither have their ways.

But everybody knows that nothing really changed at least on the surface until Calhoun started in January. Remember the “back off” message we got from the FAA in December...


Agreed. Besides, when the media broke the news, my thoughts were initially of huge disbelief and anger, thinking that were referring to the recertification process done this year. However and somehow, I realized that something was off with that news, so in order to be sure, I decided to read the entire report...Only to discover that it was actually referring to the first recertification attempts that were doing back in mid-2019. And I can tell you, in none of the news media that I consulted later did I find that particular detail.

My sound advice: Before believing anything the media says, crosscheck everything in other official sources if possible. Don't assume anything, since now it has become a fad that the media does not give always all the information, which can lend itself to misinformation and yellowing.


This certainly helps clarify. Given that these planes are now being delivered in timing with release of this report you would think this would be in big bold letters. Unfortunately just another case of the media making a narrative to generate hysteria. Yes we would all like to ensure that behavior has changed but until there’s evidence the process that finalized the recertification is flawed there should be better disclosure on this. Reading many of the reports I was unaware this was the previous attempt to recertify
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Tue Dec 22, 2020 1:48 am

Whiteguy wrote:
AABusDrvr wrote:
In the "new" Runaway Stabilizer NNC, there is now a memory item reminding the crew to control aircraft pitch attitude and airspeed with the control column and thrust levers, after disengagement of the autopilot and auto throttles. I guess this should alleviate everyone's fears about crew competence issues now.

Depending on the company, I guess, that was in the NNC prior to the grounding.

Next checklist update will include "Keep the blue side up"...
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
Sooner787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020 [Ungrounded by FAA 18NOV2020]

Tue Dec 22, 2020 6:06 pm

Revelation wrote:
Looks like some of the white tails are finding a new home:

BREAKING: Alaska Airlines signs “agreement in principle” with Boeing to order 23 more 737 Max 9s, total commitment rises to 68, options for 52 more. Nine will be already-built white tails. Carrier to exit legacy Virgin America A320s and A319s by mid-2023, will keep 10 A321neos.

Ref: https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 6055495681


Didn't UA make a deal to take some Max 8 White Tails?

If so how many?
 
Aviator34ID
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Tue Dec 22, 2020 10:23 pm

Eight MAXs airborne at the moment . Good to see the momentum increasing.
 
KarlB737
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Sat Dec 26, 2020 4:18 pm

Courtesy: Fox Business

Air Canada Boeing 737-8 MAX Suffers Engine Issue

"Shortly after the take-off, the pilots received an “engine indication” and “decided to shut down one engine,” an Air Canada spokesman said."

https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/air-canada-boeing-737-8-max-suffers-engine-issue
 
StTim
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Sat Dec 26, 2020 5:27 pm

The poor old MAX is going to get noticed and reported on every adverse event- even relatively minor ones.
 
sphealey
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Sat Dec 26, 2020 5:32 pm

StTim wrote:
The poor old MAX is going to get noticed and reported on every adverse event- even relatively minor ones.

Once travel kicks off again in April-May there is going to have to be a dedicated thread for "aircraft suffers tech failure within 5 flights of return to service", and maybe multiple threads by type :(
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Sat Dec 26, 2020 5:34 pm

StTim wrote:
The poor old MAX is going to get noticed and reported on every adverse event- even relatively minor ones.

IFSD, if it is indeed one, may be a serious one. Given another one on WN ferry flight at the beginning of the grounding - very recent in terms of flight hours; and relatively small accumulated flight time, and heightened scrutiny to the type - etops status may be at stake.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Sat Dec 26, 2020 5:36 pm

sphealey wrote:
StTim wrote:
The poor old MAX is going to get noticed and reported on every adverse event- even relatively minor ones.

Once travel kicks off again in April-May there is going to have to be a dedicated thread for "aircraft suffers tech failure within 5 flights of return to service", and maybe multiple threads by type :(


Exactly - this won't be a MAX specific issue. By the time some aircraft are put back into service after COVID there are for sure going to be a lot of issues.
 
beechnut
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Sat Dec 26, 2020 9:21 pm

StTim wrote:
The poor old MAX is going to get noticed and reported on every adverse event- even relatively minor ones.


That's fairly understandable given the nature of media, although I don't consider an in-flight engine shutdown "minor" without investigation of the reason.

It could be tied to the fact that these aircraft have been grounded for nearly 2 years, and problems relating to that are certainly a possible risk factor as the aircraft are returned to service. I for one would like to know if this will be a factor with RTS.

Beech
 
StTim
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Sat Dec 26, 2020 9:35 pm

beechnut wrote:
StTim wrote:
The poor old MAX is going to get noticed and reported on every adverse event- even relatively minor ones.


That's fairly understandable given the nature of media, although I don't consider an in-flight engine shutdown "minor" without investigation of the reason.

It could be tied to the fact that these aircraft have been grounded for nearly 2 years, and problems relating to that are certainly a possible risk factor as the aircraft are returned to service. I for one would like to know if this will be a factor with RTS.

Beech


I realise that an in flight shut down has a large range of possible causes some of which are relatively minor through to major. I was trying to say that anything happening to a MAX is going to be reported.
 
oldJoe
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Sat Dec 26, 2020 10:21 pm

morrisond wrote:
sphealey wrote:
StTim wrote:
The poor old MAX is going to get noticed and reported on every adverse event- even relatively minor ones.

Once travel kicks off again in April-May there is going to have to be a dedicated thread for "aircraft suffers tech failure within 5 flights of return to service", and maybe multiple threads by type :(


Exactly - this won't be a MAX specific issue. By the time some aircraft are put back into service after COVID there are for sure going to be a lot of issues.


Which issues , please ?
I count on the professional staff wich bring any airliner back into service without any problem at all.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Sat Dec 26, 2020 10:59 pm

kalvado wrote:
StTim wrote:
The poor old MAX is going to get noticed and reported on every adverse event- even relatively minor ones.

IFSD, if it is indeed one, may be a serious one. Given another one on WN ferry flight at the beginning of the grounding - very recent in terms of flight hours; and relatively small accumulated flight time, and heightened scrutiny to the type - etops status may be at stake.

So this was a normal commercial flight with no pax or a ferry / reposition flight from desert storage to Canada, do we even know if the a/c was already modified with new software and the wire bundle repair?
However, what we do know is that it was a MAX a/c, guess at this stage of the a/c return to service we need know nothing more....
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Sat Dec 26, 2020 11:15 pm

par13del wrote:
kalvado wrote:
StTim wrote:
The poor old MAX is going to get noticed and reported on every adverse event- even relatively minor ones.

IFSD, if it is indeed one, may be a serious one. Given another one on WN ferry flight at the beginning of the grounding - very recent in terms of flight hours; and relatively small accumulated flight time, and heightened scrutiny to the type - etops status may be at stake.

So this was a normal commercial flight with no pax or a ferry / reposition flight from desert storage to Canada, do we even know if the a/c was already modified with new software and the wire bundle repair?
However, what we do know is that it was a MAX a/c, guess at this stage of the a/c return to service we need know nothing more....

Since none of those affect engines, that is pretty much the case. Until, of course, we can zero in on the third world maintenance issues. Arizona, where exactly in asia is that?
 
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glideslope
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Sat Dec 26, 2020 11:34 pm

sphealey wrote:
StTim wrote:
The poor old MAX is going to get noticed and reported on every adverse event- even relatively minor ones.

Once travel kicks off again in April-May there is going to have to be a dedicated thread for "aircraft suffers tech failure within 5 flights of return to service", and maybe multiple threads by type :(


Possibly, however given what the next 6-9 months are going to be occupied by I’ll wager that by this time next year pax will be boarding the 737-8, 737-9 and “Max” will go the way of Out of Sight, Out of mind.

Of course I could off base, but humans are just too repetitive in their patterns of behavior.
"To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
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ADent
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Sun Dec 27, 2020 4:10 am

par13del wrote:
So this was a normal commercial flight with no pax or a ferry / reposition flight from desert storage to Canada, do we even know if the a/c was already modified with new software and the wire bundle repair?


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/25/air-can ... issue.html Says it was a ferry flight.

Belgian aviation site Aviation24.be said the plane had a "hydraulic low pressure indication." Air Canada didn't immediately respond to further request for comment.

The article also said the flight took off from Marana.
 
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BN727227Ultra
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020 [Ungrounded by FAA 18NOV2020]

Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:02 pm

B717fan wrote:


Is flying exclusively overland normal for a flight between these two points?
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020 [Ungrounded by FAA 18NOV2020]

Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:37 pm

BN727227Ultra wrote:
B717fan wrote:


Is flying exclusively overland normal for a flight between these two points?

It depends if the aircraft is over water equipped or not. Usually AA (and other airlines) will ensure that properly equipped aircraft are on the route for the quicker routing. I’m not sure if AA’s 7M8 is currently not equipped for overwater operations (might have been something removed for storage and not reinstalled yet to save time/money, as I assume it uses same rafts and equipment as 738NG fleet so they might have been using previous Max equipment as spares) or if they were just playing it safe for first flight.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020 [Ungrounded by FAA 18NOV2020]

Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:48 pm

Polot wrote:
BN727227Ultra wrote:
B717fan wrote:


Is flying exclusively overland normal for a flight between these two points?

It depends if the aircraft is over water equipped or not. Usually AA (and other airlines) will ensure that properly equipped aircraft are on the route for the quicker routing. I’m not sure if AA’s 7M8 is currently not equipped for overwater operations (might have been something removed for storage and not reinstalled yet to save time/money, as I assume it uses same rafts and equipment as 738NG fleet so they might have been using previous Max equipment as spares) or if they were just playing it safe for first flight.


Thanks!
 
TropicalSky
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020 [Ungrounded by FAA 18NOV2020]

Tue Dec 29, 2020 8:06 pm

Appears the return legs is flying the AR's (ATLANTIC ROUTE) with is over water

BN727227Ultra wrote:
B717fan wrote:


Is flying exclusively overland normal for a flight between these two points?
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Tue Dec 29, 2020 11:57 pm

glideslope wrote:
sphealey wrote:
StTim wrote:
The poor old MAX is going to get noticed and reported on every adverse event- even relatively minor ones.

Once travel kicks off again in April-May there is going to have to be a dedicated thread for "aircraft suffers tech failure within 5 flights of return to service", and maybe multiple threads by type :(


Possibly, however given what the next 6-9 months are going to be occupied by I’ll wager that by this time next year pax will be boarding the 737-8, 737-9 and “Max” will go the way of Out of Sight, Out of mind.

Of course I could off base, but humans are just too repetitive in their patterns of behavior.

Considering how fast the flights will return with withing six months: GoL American, United, Alaska, AeroMexico, Ryanair, SouthWest, VietJet (rebranded the "200"), TUI, Turkish, AirCanada, and Westjet... the others will follow.

While many orders were lost (about nine hundred, although I expect more loses, but also some gains), there are still over 4,000 on the books with most undelivered.

Boeing needs some more big orders. While airlines do not really need aircraft for a few years, for the right price they will order further out. So let us see what happens.

Lightsaber
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EAARbrat
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:03 am

So much for the American public not flying on the MAX.

https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/aa-flie ... g-737-max/
AB4,6 318 319 320 321 333 342 B703 712 721 722 731 732 733 734 735 736 737 738 739 741 742 74D 744 752 753 763 764 772 773 CR2 7 9 10 D91 93 94 95 101 E135 145 170 190 L10 M80 81 82 83 87 88 M90 Q400

AA AC AF AR CO CL DL EA F9 KE LH NW N7 PA TW WN UA
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Wed Dec 30, 2020 1:01 pm

The American public doesn't have a clue or a care what aircraft type they're flying on.
 
TranscendZac
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Wed Dec 30, 2020 2:26 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
The American public doesn't have a clue or a care what aircraft type they're flying on.

Agreed and agree with AA’s president. The 737 Max is the most scrutinized aircraft in service thus making it probably the safest.
Zac
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:37 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
The American public doesn't have a clue or a care what aircraft type they're flying on.

True. Even among those more aware we may see some initial reluctance to fly on MAX but I bet that wears off quickly. The airlines are playing it just right, letting people book away if they want for no charge, or giving them refunds. I doubt few take them up on it even if the choice is to sit an hour or two waiting for the next flight.

TranscendZac wrote:
Agreed and agree with AA’s president. The 737 Max is the most scrutinized aircraft in service thus making it probably the safest.

True, we should be back on track to mirror the NG's historically good safety record, or close to it. Unfortunately the pilots and the airline's training of the pilots have not gotten the same scrutiny. Hopefully the pilots are up to the task. Recently we had two air force veterans land a full FBW A320 airplane gear up and then crash into the city. The pilots are still the biggest determinant of how safe your flight will be, IMO.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:50 pm

Revelation wrote:
The pilots are still the biggest determinant of how safe your flight will be, IMO.

Only until you start discussing alternatives. Once you mention single pilot + automation, pilots become the most reliable part of the equation.
 
TranscendZac
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Wed Dec 30, 2020 4:25 pm

TranscendZac wrote:
Agreed and agree with AA’s president. The 737 Max is the most scrutinized aircraft in service thus making it probably the safest.


True, we should be back on track to mirror the NG's historically good safety record, or close to it. Unfortunately the pilots and the airline's training of the pilots have not gotten the same scrutiny. Hopefully the pilots are up to the task. Recently we had two air force veterans land a full FBW A320 airplane gear up and then crash into the city. The pilots are still the biggest determinant of how safe your flight will be, IMO.

Absolutely agree with that.

More so on topic specifically about the Max, I assume the new mandates and changes Boeing has/have to make essentially eliminate the chance of a repeated catastrophe caused by unknown MCAS function? Will all countries who have airlines flying the Max mandate proper pilot training on the new procedures? And is there anything specifically Boeing can do to train in Seattle the pilots of these airlines?
Zac
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:01 pm

TranscendZac wrote:
I assume the new mandates and changes Boeing has/have to make essentially eliminate the chance of a repeated catastrophe caused by unknown MCAS function? Will all countries who have airlines flying the Max mandate proper pilot training on the new procedures? And is there anything specifically Boeing can do to train in Seattle the pilots of these airlines?

I think it's a safe presumption that all the world's regulators will follow FAA, EASA, et al and mandate sim training for the new procedures. I would also liked to have seen increased scrutiny of airline's ability to train those procedures and the pilot's ability to perform them under stress, but I have not seen evidence of any initiative along those lines. The descriptions I'm reading in the media suggest new procedures are written and the regulators check the resulting training materials and plans but not much more than that.

I think MCAS itself is now well tested. I have read that Boeing is involved in training pilots for RTS. For instance I read WN is using Boeing sims in MIA to roll out the training across its fleet since it's my understanding that unlike many airlines WN will not fly any MAXes till all pilots have received the training.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
KarlB737
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:23 pm

TranscendZac wrote:
The 737 Max is the most scrutinized aircraft in service thus making it probably the safest.


I've thought about this and I predict the MAX will become the hottest seller in 2021 and especially 2022 simply because it has been so heavily scrutinized and provides one of the only new Boeing aircraft for that size.
 
Sooner787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:27 pm

KarlB737 wrote:
TranscendZac wrote:
The 737 Max is the most scrutinized aircraft in service thus making it probably the safest.


I've thought about this and I predict the MAX will become the hottest seller in 2021 and especially 2022 simply because it has been so heavily scrutinized and provides one of the only new Boeing aircraft for that size.


True ... and I think the deals Boeing is willing to make on white tails will take care of that inventory sooner
than later.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:20 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
KarlB737 wrote:
TranscendZac wrote:
The 737 Max is the most scrutinized aircraft in service thus making it probably the safest.


I've thought about this and I predict the MAX will become the hottest seller in 2021 and especially 2022 simply because it has been so heavily scrutinized and provides one of the only new Boeing aircraft for that size.


True ... and I think the deals Boeing is willing to make on white tails will take care of that inventory sooner
than later.

This link has the -8MAX at $38 million, the -9 MAX at $41 million vs. low 40s for the A320NEO and upper 40s for the A321NEO (not the LR or xLR, which sell for a premium).
Per the link, the MAX discounting (and probably Covid19) has pulled A321NEO pricing down from the mid 50s (note, 2nd half of article a hidden bit on the MAX pricing that was snuck in):
https://leehamnews.com/2020/11/09/ponti ... ts-plunge/
Normal pricing is well into the $40m range for the 8 MAX and into the $50m range for the 9 MAX and A321.
In other words, about a 20% discount from before.

And:
But we can comfortably say Boeing will make money. The margin gets squeezed.
I recall reading (but I cannot find the source), back when Boeing sold a -8MAX for ~$45 million, that was 30% profit.

Boeing will discount, but Ryanair complained not enough:
https://leehamnews.com/2020/12/03/ryana ... to-boeing/

So Boeing will not cash flow as well as before, but should do ok.

Note: My opinion narrow body production will be too high in 2021 through 2024 hasn't changed. Boeing clawing back into the market will force Airbus to react and the loser will be holders of mid-age A320CEOs and 737NGs returned as well as the continued drop in pricing of older aircraft (See the source above for MAX pricing, the first half is aircraft pricing).

The ungrounding of the MAX is a shock to the market that will be felt for years. Just putting the already built back into service will drop 737NG used prices quickly. Add to that the need to restart production and that will cause airlines who need more lift to seriously look at the 737 due to the discounting. In turn, this will pull down A320CEO pricing (too many airlines operate both for anything else to happen). Thus eventually A320NEO and even more A321NEO pricing (see above link, it looks like A321NEO pricing has only dropped about 10% from Mid $50 millions to upper 40 millions, but it certainly has dropped).

Market, meet invisible hand... I find this fascinating as this will be a dam burst cascading into the market.

Lightsaber
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Thu Dec 31, 2020 10:59 am

Please continue discussion in Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1455907
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