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btfarrwm
Posts: 114
Joined: Fri May 06, 2011 5:50 am

Re: The corona virus vaccine and civil aviation ?

Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:34 pm

One other thing to keep in mind, both of the most promising vaccine candidates are mRNA vaccines. There has never been an mRNA vaccine that has been advanced to large scale production and there has never been an FDA-approved mRNA vaccine. Before we start packing our bags to travel in 2021, let's make sure the science matches the hype. We don't want a 737MAX-esque situation working it's way into the medical field.
 
joeblow10
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Re: The corona virus vaccine and civil aviation ?

Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:44 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
RDUDDJI wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:

Me neither, history just throws a wide shadow over fast tracked vaccines. Our safe vaccines we use daily, which I also got, developed and improved over decades and are proven safe. New vaccines take years to study long term effects and need years to get approval and to be labeled safe.

On the other side here we have two fast tracked attempts:

https://www.healthing.ca/diseases-and-conditions/coronavirus/cautionary-tales-from-u-s-history-on-rushing-vaccines


Both examples were over forty years ago. Both of those were due to manufacturing issues (not issues with the vaccine itself). Medicine and Quality Control have come a long way since the 1970's. Between the two issues you reference, 5 people died and 51 were paralyzed, but ultimately polio was eradicated. Sad for sure, but millions (billions?) more would have suffered polio if the work had been abandoned.

Science > politics.


When Politics wants to speed up science bad stuff happens. The two are just an example. The space shuttle tragedies are another one. The need and will to do it fast instead of right can kill people. It takes years to make sure there are no long term effects. Not 6 months.


Completely agreed - however, unless the world decides to “live with it” for the foreseeable next few years, we’re just going to have to take that risk. The cycle of lockdowns isn’t healthy for anyone, and the longer it goes on the longer the recovery will take
 
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enilria
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Re: The corona virus vaccine and civil aviation ?

Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:50 pm

JannEejit wrote:
So I think this could use a thread of it own ?

Given the exciting news yesterday and the rallying of airline share prices because of it. Is the widely predicted 2023-24 passenger recovery estimation now (or soon to be) in an 'all bets are off' situation ? I realise we have a little way to go here, but are we about to witness an upsurge in flight bookings and holidays for spring/summer 2021 ! Is anyone aware of any examples thus far ?

Hey, and here's something to ponder, just for fun, any airline bosses having second thoughts about retiring those 747's so soon ?

Post-election I expected either a renewed nearly national lockdown or a sudden and unexpected improvement in the Covid situation. So far it looks like the latter, but too early to be sure.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: The corona virus vaccine and civil aviation ?

Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:13 pm

Please keep politics out if civil aviation discussions unless it directly impacts civil aviation.

Distribution of the first vaccine will be an issue. It must be kept super cold. Even the Mayo clinic doesn't have cokd enough freezers:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN27P2VI

There will be those who refuse vaccines. I personally will aim to get one as soon as I can to protect all the elderly relatives I interact with; I'm tired if staying a distance away and not hugging them and mentally, it effects them.

Although I disagree that the local pharmacies won't have it. Ice box transit is good for two days. Nitrogen isn't cheap, but in a rapid mass vax campaign, its cheaper than beer, so use it in a say two week campaign.

Ro is 3, higher than most colds and flus, so we need 75% plus immune or vaccinated to go back to normal.

I want normal for myself, my kuds, and my elderly relatives, so we will get vaccinated ASAP.

Lockdown fatigue is real People won't put up with it much longer. Either get vaccinated or you will get to just develop immunity the natural way.

Please recall flu+Covid19 is really, really bad. My sister us a doctor in a Covid19 ward; she cannot do anything fir a patient with both and must send patients off to a hospital that can (which is.. none in her state. She works in the regional trama center too.)

The US needs 200 million+ doses of approved vaccines. The Oxford Vaccine for the UK was mass ordered, I hope it works.

The world needs 5 billion+ doses. To get back to normal air travel every healthcare worker, every teacher, bus driver, airline worker, and most passengers must have immunity.

I'm flying for Thanksgiving. If I can get vaccinated before, I shall.

Lightsaber
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.
 
RDUDDJI
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Re: The corona virus vaccine and civil aviation ?

Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:19 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
RDUDDJI wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:

Me neither, history just throws a wide shadow over fast tracked vaccines. Our safe vaccines we use daily, which I also got, developed and improved over decades and are proven safe. New vaccines take years to study long term effects and need years to get approval and to be labeled safe.

On the other side here we have two fast tracked attempts:

https://www.healthing.ca/diseases-and-conditions/coronavirus/cautionary-tales-from-u-s-history-on-rushing-vaccines


Both examples were over forty years ago. Both of those were due to manufacturing issues (not issues with the vaccine itself). Medicine and Quality Control have come a long way since the 1970's. Between the two issues you reference, 5 people died and 51 were paralyzed, but ultimately polio was eradicated. Sad for sure, but millions (billions?) more would have suffered polio if the work had been abandoned.

Science > politics.


When Politics wants to speed up science bad stuff happens. The two are just an example. The space shuttle tragedies are another one. The need and will to do it fast instead of right can kill people. It takes years to make sure there are no long term effects. Not 6 months.


Not necessarily.

Firstly, pharma companies aren't government controlled, they're regulated by the Gov't (at least in the US). They are free to do what their scientists tell them is correct on a timeline that they dictate (and is approved by FDA). In this case Pfizer did not take any gov't money to do the R&D. Companies have an interest in getting it right too, otherwise they get sued down the road.

Secondly, it hasn't been approved yet. They haven't even released the trial data yet. We can argue all we want about it, but it ain't done yet.

Thirdly, speed and doing it right are not mutually exclusive. There are plenty of examples of where they've worked quite well together (Apollo 13 is a good example to go along with your space analogies).
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
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lightsaber
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Re: The corona virus vaccine and civil aviation ?

Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:24 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
RDUDDJI wrote:

Both examples were over forty years ago. Both of those were due to manufacturing issues (not issues with the vaccine itself). Medicine and Quality Control have come a long way since the 1970's. Between the two issues you reference, 5 people died and 51 were paralyzed, but ultimately polio was eradicated. Sad for sure, but millions (billions?) more would have suffered polio if the work had been abandoned.

Science > politics.


When Politics wants to speed up science bad stuff happens. The two are just an example. The space shuttle tragedies are another one. The need and will to do it fast instead of right can kill people. It takes years to make sure there are no long term effects. Not 6 months.


Completely agreed - however, unless the world decides to “live with it” for the foreseeable next few years, we’re just going to have to take that risk. The cycle of lockdowns isn’t healthy for anyone, and the longer it goes on the longer the recovery will take

It amazes me how few consider mental health. My friends who are councilors/therapists are so worried about mental health. This is why lockdowns cease working. People cannot take it.

We're in a bad 3rd wave, but it looks like through the less vulnerable (fewer deaths, at least as a fraction if the population).

Chosing not to get vaccinated has its own risk. I'll be respectful of the risk to other people; but as soon as the vaccine sits available for two weeks (I'll be vaccinated), it is back to the old life for me. But I will wait until everyone has a fair chance to be vaccinated locally. Unfortunately, it will take a year to make enough vaccine to stop this globally and by then a new vaccine, a la flu vaccine, is probably needed.

Lightsaber
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: The corona virus vaccine and civil aviation ?

Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:28 pm

RDUDDJI wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
RDUDDJI wrote:

Both examples were over forty years ago. Both of those were due to manufacturing issues (not issues with the vaccine itself). Medicine and Quality Control have come a long way since the 1970's. Between the two issues you reference, 5 people died and 51 were paralyzed, but ultimately polio was eradicated. Sad for sure, but millions (billions?) more would have suffered polio if the work had been abandoned.

Science > politics.


When Politics wants to speed up science bad stuff happens. The two are just an example. The space shuttle tragedies are another one. The need and will to do it fast instead of right can kill people. It takes years to make sure there are no long term effects. Not 6 months.


Not necessarily.

Firstly, pharma companies aren't government controlled, they're regulated by the Gov't (at least in the US). They are free to do what their scientists tell them is correct on a timeline that they dictate (and is approved by FDA). In this case Pfizer did not take any gov't money to do the R&D. Companies have an interest in getting it right too, otherwise they get sued down the road.

Secondly, it hasn't been approved yet. They haven't even released the trial data yet. We can argue all we want about it, but it ain't done yet.

Thirdly, speed and doing it right are not mutually exclusive. There are plenty of examples of where they've worked quite well together (Apollo 13 is a good example to go along with your space analogies).

I personally know people involved in the vaccine development and testing. I think the risk for the 3 vaccines I know enough about, the risk us greater being non-vaccinated.

That said, I would like to peruse the data. I will make my own opinion. But as if now, I am inclined to vaccinate.

Lightsaber
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.
 
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JannEejit
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Re: The corona virus vaccine and civil aviation ?

Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:35 pm

Interesting discussion but before the thread gets moved out of civil aviation, can I specifically request views on how this announcement may affect current airline planning and thnking on a return to pre-Covid business levels ? Does it change a thing or do airlines continue with the generally agreed 2023-24 return to optimal service demand ? Could 2022 be the new 2024 for example, assuming the vaccine is a success ?
 
MIflyer12
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Re: The corona virus vaccine and civil aviation ?

Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:52 pm

I will condense my reply. Look for carriers to talk about it, but watch for them actually to start growing significantly before you believe it. Don't be misled by an outlier - there will be regional differences that can't be ignored but look for big moves by numerous big carriers before calling it a trend.
Last edited by MIflyer12 on Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Capricorn
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Re: The corona virus vaccine and civil aviation ?

Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:53 pm

JannEejit wrote:
So I think this could use a thread of it own ?

Given the exciting news yesterday and the rallying of airline share prices because of it. Is the widely predicted 2023-24 passenger recovery estimation now (or soon to be) in an 'all bets are off' situation ? I realise we have a little way to go here, but are we about to witness an upsurge in flight bookings and holidays for spring/summer 2021 ! Is anyone aware of any examples thus far ?

Hey, and here's something to ponder, just for fun, any airline bosses having second thoughts about retiring those 747's so soon ?


I don't think that there is currently a surge in booking, at least not where I live. While the vaccine certainly is good news for the aviation industry, it still takes a lot of time for global availability and distribution to all age groups and not just the hight risk groups. High Risk groups might not be the most frequent flyers as for example most airline passengers (~90%) in the UK are below the age of 65 (source below). And where I live (not the UK) these age groups would not get a high priority for the vaccine. So I don't think that the time table changes much from the current IATA projection of when traffic is supposed to return. My guess is that >50% of the population in the countries that per capita proportionately fly the most have to be vaccinated for a real effect on the aviation industry. Otherwise there are too many people still impacted by certain restrictions of certain countries (e.g. on arrival quarantine, test before flying, ineligibility) and this prevents people from booking. I think from what I read from different sources this will not be the case before mid 2022.

Source
https://www.statista.com/statistics/304 ... irport-uk/
 
travaz
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Re: The corona virus vaccine and civil aviation ?

Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:02 pm

I am going to get vaccinated. I retired 30 days ago and want to travel. I am 70 but have no underlying health issues. IMHO lockdowns only prolong the spread. As soon as the restrictions ease up the cases rise. I have traveled 2 times since the virus took hold and feel pretty safe doing so. The development of therapeutics to help stem the severity of the virus could also play an important part in the debate. Not being an expert in Airline operations, I see a long road to pre covid numbers. The recall of employees, training to regain currency, maintenance of stored aircraft. I think 2022 is a realistic goal.

Add info
 
TWFlyGuy
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Re: The corona virus vaccine and civil aviation ?

Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:21 pm

Business travel is going to be surpressed for a while. I can't imagine many companies wanting to take the risk of an employee getting sick either through traveling or even while on the road (even if they caught it before they left) and the complications associated with that. So I would bet something like 6 months after a vaccine is widely available. And even then, I would speculate as flu season in 2021 comes around, people may try to opt out of work travel so there may be new seasonality as well.
 
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Acey559
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Re: The corona virus vaccine and civil aviation ?

Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:33 pm

From my perspective as a pilot in the US:

My airline has said they have seen a surge in holiday bookings and are adding many flights around Thanksgiving/Christmas. Anecdotally, I checked our new ORD-OGG flight that starts next month and it’s packed front and back on every day I looked.

ALPA sent us an email last week effectively saying that, barring any FAA relaxations, we cannot get the vaccine as it voids our medical. More data will be needed before the feds will give it their blessing, which can take years. I’m 33 and in pretty good health, so I’m fine with waiting. I just hope that doesn’t mean being confined to hotel rooms on international layovers. But if it does, I think that’s a small price to continue paying for a little while while the world gets back on its feet.
In Dixie Land I'll take my stand to live and die in Dixie.
 
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Acey559
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Re: The corona virus vaccine and civil aviation ?

Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:33 pm

travaz wrote:
I am going to get vaccinated. I retired 30 days ago and want to travel. I am 70 but have no underlying health issues. IMHO lockdowns only prolong the spread. As soon as the restrictions ease up the cases rise. I have traveled 2 times since the virus took hold and feel pretty safe doing so. The development of therapeutics to help stem the severity of the virus could also play an important part in the debate. Not being an expert in Airline operations, I see a long road to pre covid numbers. The recall of employees, training to regain currency, maintenance of stored aircraft. I think 2022 is a realistic goal.

Add info


Congratulations!
In Dixie Land I'll take my stand to live and die in Dixie.
 
davidjohnson6
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Re: The corona virus vaccine and civil aviation ?

Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:40 pm

Acey559 wrote:
ALPA sent us an email last week effectively saying that, barring any FAA relaxations, we cannot get the vaccine as it voids our medical. More data will be needed before the feds will give it their blessing, which can take years.


In normal circumstances, I agree it would take years before everything is signed off. However, unless nasty side effects come to light, I do not think the FDA / FAA will take years before pilots are approved to have the Covid vaccine - political pressure will be too great if things move slowly
 
descl
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Re: COVID-19 Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - Q4 2020

Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:47 pm

dcajet wrote:
Air Canada will return to EZE & SCL effective Dec 10. 5x w. with the 787-9, with traffic rights on all segments.

AC092 YYZ 22:00 SCL 10:20+1
AC092 SCL12:00 EZE 13:55

AC093 EZE 17:00 SCL 19:10
AC093 SCL 20:55 YYZ 05:30+1

Not available on aircanada.com nor google flights until mid january, then only 3x week, which looks much more reasonable.
 
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Acey559
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Re: The corona virus vaccine and civil aviation ?

Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:32 pm

davidjohnson6 wrote:
Acey559 wrote:
ALPA sent us an email last week effectively saying that, barring any FAA relaxations, we cannot get the vaccine as it voids our medical. More data will be needed before the feds will give it their blessing, which can take years.


In normal circumstances, I agree it would take years before everything is signed off. However, unless nasty side effects come to light, I do not think the FDA / FAA will take years before pilots are approved to have the Covid vaccine - political pressure will be too great if things move slowly


I definitely agree there will be some acceleration to get this through the FAA process. The email was more to the tune of telling us not to volunteer for a vaccine trial, and to wait to receive the vaccine until given the all-clear.

The FAA is usually very conservative with these types of things so if/when they eventually say it is safe, I would tend to believe it.
In Dixie Land I'll take my stand to live and die in Dixie.
 
jcded
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Re: The corona virus vaccine and civil aviation ?

Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:47 pm

Once available to persons in my category I'd sign up right away.
My last flight (as a passenger) before Covid was late Feb (HNL-LAX), like most people here I saw the lockdown and its effects. Working in aviation, I was in the first waves of layoffs as all my projects dried up. I decided to fly back to spend time with my parents as they are elderly (80 & 81) and flew LAX-FRA-GVA. With a more stringent lockdown being implemented in Europe at the beginning of the crisis they were able to flatten the curve much quicker and have a calmer summer. In September, it was as if a light switch was turned off, cold snap and people started congregating more indoors and paying less attention to social distancing and mask wearing. We stayed mostly on our compound though occasional sorties for errands. I flew back to the US via the same reverse route on Oct 19. By that time, the second wave was ramping up and stronger soft style lockdowns were implemented in Europe. A week later hard lockdowns started to be implemented.

A few days later my dad called me to tell me that my mom had contracted Covid and was resting in bed, five days later he called me to say that he had tested positive. My mom was tired and spent most of a week in bed recovering, my father never displayed any symptoms. They have both since recovered and tested negative. Once I got the call I immediately quarantined and got tested within the hour (Los Angeles County has an excellent testing program). Less than 24 hours later I received the results at 5am that I had tested negative. A week later I tested negative for anti-bodies.

My parents are old, I don't know how they could have gotten infected. They wear their masks and strongly believe in its efficacy, though, as stated they are old and sometimes forget to put the mask on. One of my major roles at home was saying "mask" like I said "seatbelt" when I was a kid (I still say it).

My parents are two of the lucky ones, my father's sister was not. She passed from Covid. People in healthcare I know barely made it. This sickness is indiscriminate and you don't know if you'll be fine or terminal.

Designing airports is my profession, one of the first things I thought should have been implemented was a nationwide standard on controlling travel and implementing common testing and quarantine standards. First domestically (US) and then through international cooperation, with foreign countries. I think it is very possible that vaccines maybe required to travel similar to how a vaccine to Yellow Fever is required of certain passengers for certain countries.

A friend of mine is immunocompromised after receiving a heart transplant, he does not have the option of receiving a vaccine due to the lifelong medication he is on. For him and the thousands like him, they need herd immunity that can only be attained by a high percentage of the population receiving an effective vaccine, especially is natural occuring anti-bodies decline with time and Covid re-infection is a possibility.
You breathe to do good and have fun.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: COVID-19 Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - Q4 2020

Tue Nov 10, 2020 5:38 pm

The optimistic scenario is that vaccines become available in December, widely available in the spring of 2021, enough people vaccinated by the summer, but that still puts 'herd immunity' to the early fall.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
dcajet
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Re: COVID-19 Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - Q4 2020

Tue Nov 10, 2020 5:41 pm

descl wrote:
dcajet wrote:
Air Canada will return to EZE & SCL effective Dec 10. 5x w. with the 787-9, with traffic rights on all segments.

AC092 YYZ 22:00 SCL 10:20+1
AC092 SCL12:00 EZE 13:55

AC093 EZE 17:00 SCL 19:10
AC093 SCL 20:55 YYZ 05:30+1

Not available on aircanada.com nor google flights until mid january, then only 3x week, which looks much more reasonable.


Schedules were updated and published this past weekend.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
dcajet
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Re: COVID-19 Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - Q4 2020

Thu Nov 12, 2020 6:51 pm

Iberia significantly expands its Latin America schedules for December, in spite of the travel restrictions between Spain and Latin America and v.v.

Buenos Aires EZE 6x w (used to be up to 16x w before the pandemic)
Bogota BOG 4x w
Cali CLO 1x w
Medellin MED 1x w
Rio de Janeiro GIG 3x w
Sao Paulo GRU 3x w
Santiago SCL 7x w
Mexico City MEX 7x w
San Salvador SAL 5x w
Guatemala City GUA 5x w
Quito UIO 5x w
Dominican Republic (SDQ? PUJ?) 10x w

No updates regarding Lima or Montevideo. Venezuela continues to be closed for flights to/fr Spain until February 2021.

Madrid, 12 de noviembre de 2020

Iberia afronta los próximos meses con una apuesta clara por recuperar vuelos y destinos para contribuir a la recuperación económica y, poco a poco, empezar a volver a la normalidad en entornos seguros.

Para lograrlo, la aerolínea vuelve a poner el acento en América Latina y, para los meses de noviembre y diciembre, ha diseñado un programa que, ya sea a través de vuelos especiales o regulares, le permite operar en 18 destinos de 15 países en América Latina y hasta 80 frecuencias semanales.

Estos son los países con los crecimientos de Iberia más relevantes en diciembre*:

Argentina, operará hasta seis vuelos semanales con Buenos Aires
Brasil, retoma sus vuelos a Río de Janeiro con tres frecuencias semanales a las que se suman otras tres con Sao Paulo
Colombia, incrementa su oferta con Bogotá hasta cuatro frecuencias semanales y, en diciembre, operará una frecuencia semanal con Cali y otra con Medellín
En Ciudad de México y Santiago de Chile, ha programado ya hasta un vuelo diario para diciembre
En Quito y en la ruta Ciudad de Guatemala – San Salvador, operará hasta cinco frecuencias semanales respectivamente
Y en República Dominica crece hasta 10 frecuencias semanales -tres más que antes de la pandemia- en diciembre
En definitiva, Iberia recupera su actividad en todos los países de América Latina excepto Venezuela, donde la aerolínea regresará también una vez que se levanten las restricciones.
Last edited by dcajet on Thu Nov 12, 2020 6:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
dcajet
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Re: COVID-19 Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - Q4 2020

Thu Nov 12, 2020 6:58 pm

Alitalia returns Buenos Aires EZE in December, with one weekly flight (used to be daily before the pandemic)

Image
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
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ojjunior
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Re: COVID-19 Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - Q4 2020

Thu Nov 12, 2020 7:41 pm

dcajet wrote:
Alitalia returns Buenos Aires EZE in December, with one weekly flight (used to be daily before the pandemic)

Image


30 hours layover?
I assume it is for using same crew back, right?
 
dcajet
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Re: COVID-19 Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - Q4 2020

Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:11 pm

ojjunior wrote:
dcajet wrote:
Alitalia returns Buenos Aires EZE in December, with one weekly flight (used to be daily before the pandemic)

Image


30 hours layover?
I assume it is for using same crew back, right?


Correct. Otherwise they would have to leave a whole crew away from base for a week. Many airlines are doing that these days, worldwide.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
FlyingElvii
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The Airline Industry Cannot Survive another 4-6 Week Fed Mandated Shutdown

Fri Nov 13, 2020 6:16 pm

This one is pretty simple.
If things are shut down again, especially federally, and no one is allowed to do business, the airline business as we now know it will not survive.

Biden Covid advisor says U.S. lockdown of 4 to 6 weeks could control pandemic and revive economy
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/11/biden-c ... onomy.html
 
dcajet
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Re: COVID-19 Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - Q4 2020

Fri Nov 13, 2020 7:02 pm

A seldom heard from airline, BoA Boliviana de Aviacion, has announced it will return to daily flying between Santa Cruz VVI and Buenos Aires EZE, eff. Dec 1. A mix of 738 and 763 are deployed on the route.

OB708 VVI 09:00 EZE 13:00 EQV D
OB709 EZE 14:30 VVI 16:35 EQV D
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
Tiredofhumanity
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Re: COVID-19 Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - Q4 2020

Fri Nov 13, 2020 7:55 pm

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/13/califor ... tine-.html

:cry2:

Off topic: I love how the idiot who wrote this regurgitates the CDC position on travel twice, but never mentions their decision on not mandating masks on public transit :talktothehand: .
 
santi319
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Re: The Airline Industry Cannot Survive another 4-6 Week Fed Mandated Shutdown

Fri Nov 13, 2020 10:18 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
This one is pretty simple.
If things are shut down again, especially federally, and no one is allowed to do business, the airline business as we now know it will not survive.

Biden Covid advisor says U.S. lockdown of 4 to 6 weeks could control pandemic and revive economy
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/11/biden-c ... onomy.html

Not if they actually do a complete shutdown! Last time was a “shutdown” but not really.

Literally freeze the economy for 4 weeks including airlines. Half-arsing is just not working...
 
davidjohnson6
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Re: COVID-19 Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - Q4 2020

Fri Nov 13, 2020 10:25 pm

The Covid situation on 20 January is likely to be quite different to that of 13 November. Any decision taken will likely reflect very different data to that seen now
 
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piedmontf284000
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Re: The Airline Industry Cannot Survive another 4-6 Week Fed Mandated Shutdown

Sat Nov 14, 2020 12:19 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
This one is pretty simple.
If things are shut down again, especially federally, and no one is allowed to do business, the airline business as we now know it will not survive.

Biden Covid advisor says U.S. lockdown of 4 to 6 weeks could control pandemic and revive economy
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/11/biden-c ... onomy.html


Already been shot down by two of Biden's coronavirus advisors.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/13/biden-a ... kdown.html
 
User avatar
N62NA
Posts: 4492
Joined: Sun Aug 10, 2003 1:05 am

Re: COVID-19 Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - Q4 2020

Sat Nov 14, 2020 4:37 am

This is going to do a LOT of harm. California, Oregon and Washington state are putting in a 14 day "self-quarantine" for anyone arriving from outside their respective states.

https://ktla.com/news/california/califo ... -19-cases/

Visitors and returning residents should practice self-quarantine for 14 days after arriving in California, limiting their interactions to people only in their immediate households to curb the spread of the virus, officials said.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 494
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: COVID-19 Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - Q4 2020

Sat Nov 14, 2020 4:49 am

N62NA wrote:
This is going to do a LOT of harm. California, Oregon and Washington state are putting in a 14 day "self-quarantine" for anyone arriving from outside their respective states.

https://ktla.com/news/california/califo ... -19-cases/

Visitors and returning residents should practice self-quarantine for 14 days after arriving in California, limiting their interactions to people only in their immediate households to curb the spread of the virus, officials said.


I’ve said for months - the coming months are going to be much tougher than March and April for the airlines. December thru April is going to be an absolute train wreck. With cases on the rise (and basically out of control) people will still probably travel for thanksgiving, but as soon as we see the spread within families from that, it will all come crashing down for Xmas and beyond.

Without multiple additional rounds of bailouts - some industry competitors will end up collapsing. And if we lockdown again, I have no doubt that will only accelerate for process.

Just like the Spanish Flu - the 2nd wave will be much worse than the first... people just didn’t understand where we were in the cycle until now. Let’s say a vaccine is approved by Dec 31, that still means 1-2 years before everybody on earth has a chance to get it.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 1066
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: The Airline Industry Cannot Survive another 4-6 Week Fed Mandated Shutdown

Sat Nov 14, 2020 3:21 pm

santi319 wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
This one is pretty simple.
If things are shut down again, especially federally, and no one is allowed to do business, the airline business as we now know it will not survive.

Biden Covid advisor says U.S. lockdown of 4 to 6 weeks could control pandemic and revive economy
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/11/biden-c ... onomy.html

Not if they actually do a complete shutdown! Last time was a “shutdown” but not really.

Literally freeze the economy for 4 weeks including airlines. Half-arsing is just not working...

Not going to happen in this country, especially now. They blew it with the first, most Americans won’t accept a second, it will be a useless enterprise. When car dealers and pot stores are considered “essential businesses” people just look around and say WTF.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5703
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: COVID-19 Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - Q4 2020

Sat Nov 14, 2020 4:54 pm

N62NA wrote:
This is going to do a LOT of harm. California, Oregon and Washington state are putting in a 14 day "self-quarantine" for anyone arriving from outside their respective states.

https://ktla.com/news/california/califo ... -19-cases/

Visitors and returning residents should practice self-quarantine for 14 days after arriving in California, limiting their interactions to people only in their immediate households to curb the spread of the virus, officials said.


This is really going to hit AS hard. They've been lucky thus far where SEA bookings has only been down 25% recently.
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 5240
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Terminals Still Closed Due To COVID?

Sun Nov 15, 2020 6:56 pm

I flew through ATL recently and it was interesting to see the North end of Concourse C still completely dark with the gates being used to hardstand DL jets. I didn't get over to E, but it seems like it's partially closed as well.

All this, of course, is due to COVID. Are there any other notable terminals which are still shut down due to the pandemic?
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1433
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Terminals Still Closed Due To COVID?

Sun Nov 15, 2020 6:57 pm

Newark A-2 actually just reopened today. I imagine PHL A-West is still closed.
 
User avatar
flymco753
Posts: 3466
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

Re: Terminals Still Closed Due To COVID?

Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:02 pm

DeltaRules wrote:
I flew through ATL recently and it was interesting to see the North end of Concourse C still completely dark with the gates being used to hardstand DL jets. I didn't get over to E, but it seems like it's partially closed as well.

All this, of course, is due to COVID. Are there any other notable terminals which are still shut down due to the pandemic?
80 gates at MCO are walled off due to the lack of need for FIS. All other airlines are being processed at the 90 gates. COPA & Avianca get towed to depart from Airside 1. AM & Y4 are processed and depart from Airside 4's 90 gates.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
LHA320
Posts: 138
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 10:57 pm

Re: Terminals Still Closed Due To COVID?

Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:11 pm

Terminal 2 at FRA is still closed
AB6 - A319 - A320 - A321 - A333 - A388 - AT42 - 733 - 734 - 735 - 73H - 738 - 752 - 753 - 763 - 772 - DC10 - MD83
 
Airdolomiti
Posts: 782
Joined: Fri May 16, 2003 10:05 pm

Re: Terminals Still Closed Due To COVID?

Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:15 pm

I think most terminals at CDG remain closed except 2A, 2E and 2F.
 
User001
Posts: 1131
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 2:18 pm

Re: Terminals Still Closed Due To COVID?

Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:18 pm

Closed in the UK

T3 and 4 at LHR
T2 and 3 at MAN
NQY is closed to pax ops
One of the LGW terminals but forget if its North or South
One if the satellites at STN is also closed.

Many airports in the UK have reduced hours too.
 
hollywoodcory
Posts: 239
Joined: Sun Sep 25, 2016 3:29 am

Re: Terminals Still Closed Due To COVID?

Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:20 pm

Concourse A at YYC is still closed. All domestic flights still depart from B & C.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8782
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Terminals Still Closed Due To COVID?

Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:22 pm

Where would near-full capacity be needed? What major airports (say worldwide top fifty by passenger count) are back to 75% of commercial movements or passengers with 2019 daily avg as the baseline?
 
whiplash
Posts: 78
Joined: Mon Nov 14, 2011 12:47 am

Re: Terminals Still Closed Due To COVID?

Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:24 pm

Terminal 1 in both DEL and BOM are still closed.
A320 driver
 
DTWLAX
Posts: 1133
Joined: Sun Aug 16, 2009 4:19 pm

Re: Terminals Still Closed Due To COVID?

Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:26 pm

User001 wrote:
Closed in the UK

T3 and 4 at LHR
T2 and 3 at MAN
NQY is closed to pax ops
One of the LGW terminals but forget if its North or South
One if the satellites at STN is also closed.

Many airports in the UK have reduced hours too.

If T3 and T4 are closed at LHR, which terminal are the DL and VS flights operating from?
 
davidjohnson6
Posts: 1093
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2016 10:10 pm

Re: Terminals Still Closed Due To COVID?

Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:35 pm

Info on which airlines are at which LHR terminal can be found at
https://www.heathrow.com/at-the-airport ... h-terminal
Last edited by davidjohnson6 on Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 11063
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Terminals Still Closed Due To COVID?

Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:36 pm

DTWLAX wrote:
User001 wrote:
Closed in the UK

T3 and 4 at LHR
T2 and 3 at MAN
NQY is closed to pax ops
One of the LGW terminals but forget if its North or South
One if the satellites at STN is also closed.

Many airports in the UK have reduced hours too.

If T3 and T4 are closed at LHR, which terminal are the DL and VS flights operating from?

Terminal 2.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4912
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: Terminals Still Closed Due To COVID?

Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:51 pm

I think this is pretty common. Can't remember I think it's Switzerland of Sams videos a whole terminal is closed maybe geneva? Alot of airports have consolidated to save money , demand is still pretty low this only makes sense where easy to do.

LAS had a few concourses closed , what's open is still pretty spacious for demand
 
spartanmjf
Posts: 522
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 11:31 am

Re: Terminals Still Closed Due To COVID?

Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:53 pm

User001 wrote:
Closed in the UK

T3 and 4 at LHR
T2 and 3 at MAN
NQY is closed to pax ops
One of the LGW terminals but forget if its North or South
One if the satellites at STN is also closed.

Many airports in the UK have reduced hours too.


LGW South is closed.
"Nuts to the man in 21D!"
 
LVFlyer
Posts: 3
Joined: Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:22 pm

Re: Terminals Still Closed Due To COVID?

Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:54 pm

LAS T3 is closed to flights, but it still being used for check-in, security, and baggage claim. All T3 airlines have moved temporary operations to T1-D gate until further notice.
 
FlyingHonu001
Posts: 314
Joined: Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:33 pm

Re: Terminals Still Closed Due To COVID?

Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:57 pm

AMS being a one-terminal airport with its sprawling concourses is pretty much open. So no closures here. Flights are being spread across different gates, to help with social distancing. However shops are required to close early, making many area's a ghosttown
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