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Polot
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Fri Dec 25, 2020 2:06 pm

MoKa777 wrote:
zeke wrote:

jeffrey0032j wrote:
Look at it this way, it is likely that BOCA has determined that given the analysis that they have, including a calculated probability of AAX shutting down for each of the scenarios (1) Let the plan fail and AAX folds, 2) follow a pro-Airbus plan or 3) contest against the plan), they may had determined that the expected payoff in supporting Airbus's attempts (2) is worse off than one that supports BOCA themselves (3) AND the scenario that they allow AAX to fold (1).


I think the likelihood of Airbus taking equity in an airline is close to zero, Airbus are not in the business of running an airline (also presents anti-trust issues). Also I doubt any Malaysian court will grant the Chinese Government (BOCA) equity in a Malaysian international carrier. Then there is the legal aspect of ownership and control to be majority Malaysian for international services. BOCA should be directed to take their aircraft and exit stage left, this is a normal risk all lessors have to deal with, they should not be getting Malaysian government aid. They do not need leased aircraft at the moment.

Airbus should walk away with their deposits and undelivered aircraft. If and when Air Asia need aircraft in the future new terms would be established, and they are bound not to as favorable as previous terms.

Best option going forward I would think is for Air AsiaX to close, and Air Asia to focus on a smaller core network with A320s.


^ This

I agree.

To the last paragraph, I would say, longer-range routes can be explored with the A321LR/XLR, which can allow uncomplicated and cost-effective expansion (as long as it is done in a metered way.)


It’s the best option but shutting down an airline bitter pill to swallow when you have a big ego (like Tony does) and of course Airbus doesn’t want to slash almost a quarter of the A330neo’s orderbook at once.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Fri Dec 25, 2020 3:30 pm

flee wrote:
zeke wrote:
Best option going forward I would think is for Air AsiaX to close, and Air Asia to focus on a smaller core network with A320s.

Yes, that is the least messy option IMHO - Airasia X (D7) is not going to do long haul anytime soon. Most of their viable routes are in Asia Pacific. These can be flown by A321s - Airasia (AK) can operate these routes easily.

Sadly, I agree. AAX's strategy has been botched. Too much ego, not enough pursuing profit. While Airbus certainly doesn't want the loss in orders, I think a smart restart would be go only narrowbody and have the A321xLR fleet a subfleet of the various AirAsia (A320) airlines and write off AAX as a failed experiment.

Lightsaber
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ScottB
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Fri Dec 25, 2020 7:08 pm

zeke wrote:
Airbus should walk away with their deposits and undelivered aircraft. If and when Air Asia need aircraft in the future new terms would be established, and they are bound not to as favorable as previous terms.

Best option going forward I would think is for Air AsiaX to close, and Air Asia to focus on a smaller core network with A320s.


Yep. It's entirely unclear to me what value, if any, exists in the current enterprise to justify a capital injection. They're not operating any kind of schedule and haven't for months. They were losing money even before the pandemic; they posted a net margin of -8% in 2019Q4.
 
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flee
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Sat Dec 26, 2020 1:45 am

lightsaber wrote:
flee wrote:
zeke wrote:
Best option going forward I would think is for Air AsiaX to close, and Air Asia to focus on a smaller core network with A320s.

Yes, that is the least messy option IMHO - Airasia X (D7) is not going to do long haul anytime soon. Most of their viable routes are in Asia Pacific. These can be flown by A321s - Airasia (AK) can operate these routes easily.

Sadly, I agree. AAX's strategy has been botched. Too much ego, not enough pursuing profit. While Airbus certainly doesn't want the loss in orders, I think a smart restart would be go only narrowbody and have the A321xLR fleet a subfleet of the various AirAsia (A320) airlines and write off AAX as a failed experiment.

Lightsaber

Shut down Airasia X and return all the leased A333s.They can request for Airasia X's A321XLR order to be transferred to Airasia Group. With Airasia Group's orders for A321neo and Airasia X's orders for A321XLR, the various short haul Airasia affiliates will find it efficient to operate the medium haul routes within Asia Pacific. They may also ask to transfer some of the A339 order (maybe 10 aircraft?) in order to operate the higher demand routes (e.g. PEK, PVG, SYD, AVV, TPE, HND, NRT, ICN).

Post Covid-19, airlines will all be smaller - it makes sense to merge Airasia X's most viable routes to Airasia Group's. There is no point in having the self imposed Airasia short haul (less than 4 hours flight time) airline or Airasia X "long haul" airline (for flights over 4 hours).
 
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LAXintl
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Thu Feb 04, 2021 5:10 pm

AirAsia Group parent received approval for a private equity placement expected to generate gross proceeds of 454.51 million ringgit (US$112.2 million) in new capital.

http://orientaviation.com/articles/5422 ... to-pass-go
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
moa999
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:50 pm

^ Note that is for AA Group, not AAX.

Raising seemingly done at 68c a share (last close was 76c).
AAG also sold its 33% stake in Air Asia India to Tata Group
 
A330Inter
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:35 pm

Any insight on why was HS-XJA (A339) doing in Leipzig today? Seemed like a quick rotation from Bangkok, but what's in LEJ?
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:54 am

A330Inter wrote:
Any insight on why was HS-XJA (A339) doing in Leipzig today? Seemed like a quick rotation from Bangkok, but what's in LEJ?

Covid logistics.
 
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flee
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Fri Feb 19, 2021 12:35 pm

AirAsia X gets leave from court to hold meetings with creditors
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... -creditors

One of D7's A333s was sent to WTB - TOOWOOMBA, AUSTRALIA for storage. I am not sure if it has been repossessed by the lessor.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/9MXXP
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Mon Feb 22, 2021 1:23 pm

The Malaysian High Court has ordered AAX to meet with creditors. Plan is that "....lessors can expect to recover at least 60% of what the airline owed them"

https://www.aerotime.aero/27298-AirAsia ... or-meeting
 
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flee
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:06 am

From Skyliner:

Airbus A330-343 MSN1481 Reg: 9M-XXP AirAsia X ferried 15feb21 KUL-SYD-WTB for storage
 
moa999
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:51 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
The Malaysian High Court has ordered AAX to meet with creditors. Plan is that "....lessors can expect to recover at least 60% of what the airline owed them"

https://www.aerotime.aero/27298-AirAsia ... or-meeting
Be nice to get more details..
Presumably that's not 60% of the funny money number (ie. The one that includes all future payments) as nowhere near enough equity coming in for that.

The real question is how many aircraft are being handed back to lessors.
 
Speedy752
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Sun Feb 28, 2021 5:23 am

moa999 wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
The Malaysian High Court has ordered AAX to meet with creditors. Plan is that "....lessors can expect to recover at least 60% of what the airline owed them"

https://www.aerotime.aero/27298-AirAsia ... or-meeting
Be nice to get more details..
Presumably that's not 60% of the funny money number (ie. The one that includes all future payments) as nowhere near enough equity coming in for that.


I think the creditors and lessors set them straight on that and with good reason. I still don’t see a viable business plan, it’s not like they were profitable pre covid
 
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flee
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Sun Feb 28, 2021 1:09 pm

AirAsia X’s quarterly net loss narrows to RM174m
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... ows-rm174m

They are in a terrible financial position now - all parties in the negotiations must be reasonable. This is a no win situation and if one side gets too unreasonable, the only way to resolve the issue is to liquidate the company!
 
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LAXintl
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:59 am

AirAsia X shareholders approve corporate restructuring plan

https://newsroom.aviator.aero/airasia-x ... ring-plan/

Shareholders of the long-haul affiliate of AirAsia Group approved all resolutions at an extraordinary general meeting, including a rights issue and a share subscription for new investors to raise 500 million ringgit (US$121.2 million). AirAsia X proposed restructuring its 64.15 billion ringgit debt into a principal amount of 200 million ringgit and having the rest waived.

The airline said in a separate statement that the resolutions were passed with at least a 99.8 per cent margin, and marked a major milestone in its restructuring progress.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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Antaras
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Jun 02, 2021 3:12 am

Which AAX airframes are going to Vietjet?
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
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lightsaber
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Jun 02, 2021 3:36 am

There seems to be some holdouts:
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news ... uring-plan

Planemaker Airbus last year joined more than a dozen creditors to challenge the debt restructuring plan, telling the court it stands to lose more than $5 billion worth of orders if the proposal goes through.

Other challengers include lessor BOC Aviation (BOCA), which called for a debt-to-equity swap.


Leasors might take the aircraft back.

Airbus is losing orders, I assume deposits move around. $5 billion in lost orders is quite the A330NEO reduction.

Lightsaber
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RoyalBrunei757
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:05 am

lightsaber wrote:
There seems to be some holdouts:
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news ... uring-plan

Planemaker Airbus last year joined more than a dozen creditors to challenge the debt restructuring plan, telling the court it stands to lose more than $5 billion worth of orders if the proposal goes through.

Other challengers include lessor BOC Aviation (BOCA), which called for a debt-to-equity swap.


Leasors might take the aircraft back.

Airbus is losing orders, I assume deposits move around. $5 billion in lost orders is quite the A330NEO reduction.

Lightsaber

Airbus will defnitely lose all of its 66 A339neo on firm order by AirAsia Group (although six have been built). AirAsia X (the long haul company) is technically insolvent. At the current rate of vaccination in Malaysia and the Asian region, suffice to say borders will only reopen by 2023 at earliest. While some lessors are more lenient and willing to negotiate, some have taken back their assets and reallocated to other airlines. Rumour has it a few more A333 will be removed, waiting for confirmation.

If anyone is interested, here are the special resolution passed and the vote count during the EGM yesterday:
http://www.airasiax.com/news.html/id/2338043
http://www.airasiax.com/newsroom/AAX_-_ ... esults.pdf
Last edited by RoyalBrunei757 on Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:21 am, edited 3 times in total.
 
Sokes
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:14 am

If Air Asia has an obligation to buy 66 A330-900 from Airbus, does Airbus in turn have similar obligations to suppliers?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
RoyalBrunei757
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:20 am

Sokes wrote:
If Air Asia has an obligation to buy 66 A330-900 from Airbus, does Airbus in turn have similar obligations to suppliers?

Definitely, Airbus acts an intermediatary for suppliers and AirAsia in terms of what seats, galley, washroom, mood lighting etc they plan to put in their aircraft. Airbus itself will need to order what parts, wiring, tyres, glass panels, panels etc from their suppliers in advance to meet its customers' intended delivery date. Hence the whole process is messed up now, no thanks to COVID19.
 
LTEN11
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:41 am

LAXintl wrote:
AirAsia X shareholders approve corporate restructuring plan

https://newsroom.aviator.aero/airasia-x ... ring-plan/

Shareholders of the long-haul affiliate of AirAsia Group approved all resolutions at an extraordinary general meeting, including a rights issue and a share subscription for new investors to raise 500 million ringgit (US$121.2 million). AirAsia X proposed restructuring its 64.15 billion ringgit debt into a principal amount of 200 million ringgit and having the rest waived.

The airline said in a separate statement that the resolutions were passed with at least a 99.8 per cent margin, and marked a major milestone in its restructuring progress.


Of course the shareholders are going to accept the plan, they want to see their investments be worth something and hopefully get a return on them in the future.

Creditors, well they're a completely different story. This "plan" is nothing but a plan to rip them off, hopefully they fight tooth and nail to prevent this ridiculous plan going through. Airbus and the other creditors aren't to blame for the position that AirAsia X are in.
 
DartHerald
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Jun 02, 2021 9:04 am

Actually, it seems to me that the shareholders, not the creditors, are the ones being ripped off here. issuing more shares will dilute existing shareholder's stakes but will not devalue creditor's claims, and with extra capital raised there's a chance they might receive some payment.
 
VV
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Jun 02, 2021 9:23 am

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
...
Airbus will defnitely lose all of its 66 A339neo on firm order by AirAsia Group (although six have been built). AirAsia X (the long haul company) is technically insolvent.
...


was the order "firm"?

It does not seem it is the case now.
 
RoyalBrunei757
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:19 am

VV wrote:
RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
...
Airbus will defnitely lose all of its 66 A339neo on firm order by AirAsia Group (although six have been built). AirAsia X (the long haul company) is technically insolvent.
...


was the order "firm"?

It does not seem it is the case now.

Yes, the initial order was for 100 (66 firm order plus 34 options) when it was placed in July 2018, it was revised to 78 firm order later in 2019, with no options. AirAsia X has however seeking delay in delivery of all 78 A339neo.

https://newsroom.airasia.com/news/2018/ ... further-34
https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... craft.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aira ... SKCN20L1NX
 
VV
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:54 am

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
VV wrote:
RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
...
Airbus will defnitely lose all of its 66 A339neo on firm order by AirAsia Group (although six have been built). AirAsia X (the long haul company) is technically insolvent.
...


was the order "firm"?

It does not seem it is the case now.

Yes, the initial order was for 100 (66 firm order plus 34 options) when it was placed in July 2018, it was revised to 78 firm order later in 2019, with no options. AirAsia X has however seeking delay in delivery of all 78 A339neo.

https://newsroom.airasia.com/news/2018/ ... further-34
https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... craft.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aira ... SKCN20L1NX



I guess everything is firm until it is cancelled.
 
rj777
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Jun 02, 2021 12:55 pm

I wonder (if they survive) if a name change will happen
 
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lightsaber
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Jun 02, 2021 12:55 pm

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
VV wrote:
RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
...
Airbus will defnitely lose all of its 66 A339neo on firm order by AirAsia Group (although six have been built). AirAsia X (the long haul company) is technically insolvent.
...


was the order "firm"?

It does not seem it is the case now.

Yes, the initial order was for 100 (66 firm order plus 34 options) when it was placed in July 2018, it was revised to 78 firm order later in 2019, with no options. AirAsia X has however seeking delay in delivery of all 78 A339neo.

https://newsroom.airasia.com/news/2018/ ... further-34
https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... craft.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aira ... SKCN20L1NX

Bankruptcy court is the time to shed liabilities. With $5 billion in Airbus orders being taken off the books, firm looks to be cancelled. This had to be done.

The issue is this very much takes out too many A339 orders for production economy of scale. Is it correct only two were delivered?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A330neo

Lightsaber
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Polot
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Jun 02, 2021 1:02 pm

lightsaber wrote:
RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
VV wrote:

was the order "firm"?

It does not seem it is the case now.

Yes, the initial order was for 100 (66 firm order plus 34 options) when it was placed in July 2018, it was revised to 78 firm order later in 2019, with no options. AirAsia X has however seeking delay in delivery of all 78 A339neo.

https://newsroom.airasia.com/news/2018/ ... further-34
https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... craft.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aira ... SKCN20L1NX

Bankruptcy court is the time to shed liabilities. With $5 billion in Airbus orders being taken off the books, firm looks to be cancelled. This had to be done.

The issue is this very much takes out too many A339 orders for production economy of scale. Is it correct only two were delivered?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A330neo

Lightsaber

None of AirAsia X’s 78 direct orders have been delivered. (Thai) Air Asia X did receive 2 leased frames from Avolon.
 
NLINK
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:06 pm

lightsaber wrote:
RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
VV wrote:

was the order "firm"?

It does not seem it is the case now.

Yes, the initial order was for 100 (66 firm order plus 34 options) when it was placed in July 2018, it was revised to 78 firm order later in 2019, with no options. AirAsia X has however seeking delay in delivery of all 78 A339neo.

https://newsroom.airasia.com/news/2018/ ... further-34
https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... craft.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aira ... SKCN20L1NX

Bankruptcy court is the time to shed liabilities. With $5 billion in Airbus orders being taken off the books, firm looks to be cancelled. This had to be done.

The issue is this very much takes out too many A339 orders for production economy of scale. Is it correct only two were delivered?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A330neo

Lightsaber


I also have my doubts about the future of the 330NEO. If Airbus looses AirAsia and some of the other orders are also iffy, I'm guessing maybe 150 or so orders max. The economy of scale just doesn't look good. I'm hoping it doesn't become the MD11 of the pax world.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:31 pm

NLINK wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
Yes, the initial order was for 100 (66 firm order plus 34 options) when it was placed in July 2018, it was revised to 78 firm order later in 2019, with no options. AirAsia X has however seeking delay in delivery of all 78 A339neo.

https://newsroom.airasia.com/news/2018/ ... further-34
https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... craft.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aira ... SKCN20L1NX

Bankruptcy court is the time to shed liabilities. With $5 billion in Airbus orders being taken off the books, firm looks to be cancelled. This had to be done.

The issue is this very much takes out too many A339 orders for production economy of scale. Is it correct only two were delivered?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A330neo

Lightsaber


I also have my doubts about the future of the 330NEO. If Airbus looses AirAsia and some of the other orders are also iffy, I'm guessing maybe 150 or so orders max. The economy of scale just doesn't look good. I'm hoping it doesn't become the MD11 of the pax world.

The MD-11 had a long life as a freighter. At this point, the analogy is appropriate as the economics of scale will be similar except the A330CEO opperations will help on common parts, including military tankers a la MD-11.

I didn't realize the two delivered were leased. AirAsiaX wasn't managed well pre-Covid19. so their massive A339 order just isn't needed in the coming economy. I'm not going to get into a tit for tat estimate, but I will say 150 to 250 total is a fair estimate, in particular since China is developing aircraft and thus unlikely to be a savior.

However, this is an AirAsiaX overhaul thread and I believe the implication is a far smaller future.

Lightsaber
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RoyalBrunei757
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:03 pm

lightsaber wrote:
NLINK wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Bankruptcy court is the time to shed liabilities. With $5 billion in Airbus orders being taken off the books, firm looks to be cancelled. This had to be done.

The issue is this very much takes out too many A339 orders for production economy of scale. Is it correct only two were delivered?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A330neo

Lightsaber


I also have my doubts about the future of the 330NEO. If Airbus looses AirAsia and some of the other orders are also iffy, I'm guessing maybe 150 or so orders max. The economy of scale just doesn't look good. I'm hoping it doesn't become the MD11 of the pax world.

The MD-11 had a long life as a freighter. At this point, the analogy is appropriate as the economics of scale will be similar except the A330CEO opperations will help on common parts, including military tankers a la MD-11.

I didn't realize the two delivered were leased. AirAsiaX wasn't managed well pre-Covid19. so their massive A339 order just isn't needed in the coming economy. I'm not going to get into a tit for tat estimate, but I will say 150 to 250 total is a fair estimate, in particular since China is developing aircraft and thus unlikely to be a savior.

However, this is an AirAsiaX overhaul thread and I believe the implication is a far smaller future.

Lightsaber

Yes, they have two leased A330-900neo now with its Thai long haul fleet Thai AirAsia X. These two are on top of the 78 A330-900neo they have on order. Both are ex-WOW Air ntu. They took them urgently last time to launch DMK-PRG route... It didn't last long before pandemic grounded the fleet.
 
HL300B4
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:32 pm

NLINK wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
Yes, the initial order was for 100 (66 firm order plus 34 options) when it was placed in July 2018, it was revised to 78 firm order later in 2019, with no options. AirAsia X has however seeking delay in delivery of all 78 A339neo.

https://newsroom.airasia.com/news/2018/ ... further-34
https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... craft.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aira ... SKCN20L1NX

Bankruptcy court is the time to shed liabilities. With $5 billion in Airbus orders being taken off the books, firm looks to be cancelled. This had to be done.

The issue is this very much takes out too many A339 orders for production economy of scale. Is it correct only two were delivered?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A330neo

Lightsaber


I also have my doubts about the future of the 330NEO. If Airbus looses AirAsia and some of the other orders are also iffy, I'm guessing maybe 150 or so orders max. The economy of scale just doesn't look good. I'm hoping it doesn't become the MD11 of the pax world.


Are you aware that Airbus sold about 1500 A330 Ceo alone? At this point it does not matter much how many 330 NEOs are sold. This is similar to the 777 - 777X story.
 
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DBCoop3r
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:10 pm

Globalization is largely over, it was already heading in that direction pre-Covid and Covid shed off the last few years, this is pretty much set in stone if you look at demographics... USA and Mexico will continue to be each others' largest trade partners, while Europe and east Asia are heading towards mass retirement (Japan is already there and is in a post-consumer economy already, China has grown old before it grew rich, so that is heading for disaster, South Korea isn't far behind Japan). SEA has ok demographics and is largely taking much of the low end manufacturing away from China, but it too will need time to recover.

I fear the A350 and 787 are going to be the only WB survivors for the next 10 years. 330NEO and 777X I'm not bullish on at all...
 
NLINK
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:31 pm

HL300B4 wrote:
NLINK wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Bankruptcy court is the time to shed liabilities. With $5 billion in Airbus orders being taken off the books, firm looks to be cancelled. This had to be done.

The issue is this very much takes out too many A339 orders for production economy of scale. Is it correct only two were delivered?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A330neo

Lightsaber


I also have my doubts about the future of the 330NEO. If Airbus looses AirAsia and some of the other orders are also iffy, I'm guessing maybe 150 or so orders max. The economy of scale just doesn't look good. I'm hoping it doesn't become the MD11 of the pax world.


Are you aware that Airbus sold about 1500 A330 Ceo alone? At this point it does not matter much how many 330 NEOs are sold. This is similar to the 777 - 777X story.


I'm very aware of that. I think the A330 CEO is an amazing airplane. I also think the 330NEO is a good airplane but is unlikely to survive in today's environment but hope I'm wrong. The 350/787 combo seems to be the future the world is going.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:43 pm

NLINK wrote:
HL300B4 wrote:
NLINK wrote:

I also have my doubts about the future of the 330NEO. If Airbus looses AirAsia and some of the other orders are also iffy, I'm guessing maybe 150 or so orders max. The economy of scale just doesn't look good. I'm hoping it doesn't become the MD11 of the pax world.


Are you aware that Airbus sold about 1500 A330 Ceo alone? At this point it does not matter much how many 330 NEOs are sold. This is similar to the 777 - 777X story.


I'm very aware of that. I think the A330 CEO is an amazing airplane. I also think the 330NEO is a good airplane but is unlikely to survive in today's environment but hope I'm wrong. The 350/787 combo seems to be the future the world is going.

To HL300B4:
The A330NEO and 777x need volume for part supply economics. If too few new builds are taken up then they will be uneconomical when the prior generation is retired. This is very definitely a MD-11 situation on the good side, a 717 situation on the bad. While both were operated a long time, it is hard to sustain a fleet without other airlines buying enough parts to keep a ready amount available.

The 777x has it tough due to a unique engine. The A330NEO at least benefits from the economics of the Trent 1000.

This is a handicap to future sales as now airlines will hesitate and in a market with plenty of 787 and A350 capacity, that is a bad thing. This will make freight airlines more hesitant and thus resale values will drop. This increases lease rates which makes it further tougher to sell. This makes it likely leasing companies will wiggle out of orders.

Which hurts A330CEO maintenance costs as of now they benefit from whatever in production parts are there (better pricing and availability). While a minor impact for 3 to 7 years, at some point this changes the economics of buying used A330.

So the great market of the A330CEO should be appreciated. Both old widebodies need new deliveries to reduce the cost to sustain the existing fleet, including freighters.

Lightsaber
7 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
iridescent
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:41 am

Antaras wrote:
Which AAX airframes are going to Vietjet?

Possibly 9M-XXS & 9M-XXT are the first two, both aircraft have ferried to MNL after storage and look like they parked at LHT.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Sun Jun 13, 2021 11:24 am

lightsaber wrote:
NLINK wrote:
HL300B4 wrote:

Are you aware that Airbus sold about 1500 A330 Ceo alone? At this point it does not matter much how many 330 NEOs are sold. This is similar to the 777 - 777X story.


I'm very aware of that. I think the A330 CEO is an amazing airplane. I also think the 330NEO is a good airplane but is unlikely to survive in today's environment but hope I'm wrong. The 350/787 combo seems to be the future the world is going.

To HL300B4:
The A330NEO and 777x need volume for part supply economics. If too few new builds are taken up then they will be uneconomical when the prior generation is retired. This is very definitely a MD-11 situation on the good side, a 717 situation on the bad. While both were operated a long time, it is hard to sustain a fleet without other airlines buying enough parts to keep a ready amount available.

The 777x has it tough due to a unique engine. The A330NEO at least benefits from the economics of the Trent 1000.

This is a handicap to future sales as now airlines will hesitate and in a market with plenty of 787 and A350 capacity, that is a bad thing. This will make freight airlines more hesitant and thus resale values will drop. This increases lease rates which makes it further tougher to sell. This makes it likely leasing companies will wiggle out of orders.

Which hurts A330CEO maintenance costs as of now they benefit from whatever in production parts are there (better pricing and availability). While a minor impact for 3 to 7 years, at some point this changes the economics of buying used A330.

So the great market of the A330CEO should be appreciated. Both old widebodies need new deliveries to reduce the cost to sustain the existing fleet, including freighters.

Lightsaber


The A330 still has the biggest current market presence of similar widebodies. The A330ceo consist of two models, that only differ in length with otherwise the same parts. The A330neo is a low change version with still most of the same parts, but new engines, new winglets and other minor changes.
There are 1,435 A330 in operation, about 900 of the same age distribution as the 1,000 current 787 operating.

The different models of the 777 differ much more between each other, with quite a few different engines, making smaller groups of frames were parts are fully interchangeable. The biggest group being the 777-300ER, with 827, followed by the 777-200ER with 422, with both groups not having many fully interchangeable parts between them.
The 777X is hardly a low change derivative, with new wings, new MLG, new engines and considerable changes to the fuselage and will have to stand alone for parts again.

It will be many years, even with low A330neo sales , that would brings the A330 to a situation, that it would be difficult to run, because of difficult to get spare parts. It will be the wide body with the least trouble in this area, apart from the 787 in the future.

The 767 has a much smaller market presence, AKA frames in operation, than the A330. Nobody talks about difficulties in regards to service and spare parts supply. The A330 does not even have an odd out, like the 767-400. The A330neo has bypassed that frame in delivery numbers, with more to come.
 
RoyalBrunei757
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Thu Jul 08, 2021 8:42 am

AirAsia X plans to cut its 78 A339neo order to 15 for delivery from 2027/28 to 2032:
https://airinsight.com/this-summer-is-c ... ir-asia-x/
https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/l ... 40.article
 
DaCubbyBearBar
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Thu Jul 08, 2021 9:50 am

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
AirAsia X plans to cut its 78 A339neo order to 15 for delivery from 2027/28 to 2032:
https://airinsight.com/this-summer-is-c ... ir-asia-x/
https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/l ... 40.article

Makes sense…. And Airbus probably wants the slots for someone else, possibly…..aka DL??
I am me and no one else...so my opinions are mine
 
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Polot
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Thu Jul 08, 2021 9:53 am

DaCubbyBearBar wrote:
RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
AirAsia X plans to cut its 78 A339neo order to 15 for delivery from 2027/28 to 2032:
https://airinsight.com/this-summer-is-c ... ir-asia-x/
https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/l ... 40.article

Makes sense…. And Airbus probably wants the slots for someone else, possibly…..aka DL??

A330neo production is down to 2/month currently (and unlike the A350, no immediate plans to increase) and Air Asia X deliveries were scheduled over something like a 10 year span. Airbus isn’t exactly in a dire need for additional slots to meet demand.

At this point I think the biggest risk is whether the A330neo will even still be in production then, especially in 2032.
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Thu Jul 08, 2021 1:21 pm

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
AirAsia X plans to cut its 78 A339neo order to 15 for delivery from 2027/28 to 2032:
https://airinsight.com/this-summer-is-c ... ir-asia-x/
https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/l ... 40.article

This looks like a game of which will close first, the A330neo production line or AirAsia X.
 
Jetport
Posts: 280
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Thu Jul 08, 2021 4:07 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
AirAsia X plans to cut its 78 A339neo order to 15 for delivery from 2027/28 to 2032:
https://airinsight.com/this-summer-is-c ... ir-asia-x/
https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/l ... 40.article

This looks like a game of which will close first, the A330neo production line or AirAsia X.


After skimming the links, I am amazed how investors just keep throwing good money after bad with companies like AirAsia X. Has any industry destroyed more capital in the last 40 years than the airline industry? My bet is that AirAsia X never even starts up again. Last call for A330 will be made next year with last aircraft produced in 2025.
 
AaronPMI
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Thu Jul 08, 2021 4:09 pm

Jetport wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
AirAsia X plans to cut its 78 A339neo order to 15 for delivery from 2027/28 to 2032:
https://airinsight.com/this-summer-is-c ... ir-asia-x/
https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/l ... 40.article

This looks like a game of which will close first, the A330neo production line or AirAsia X.


After skimming the links, I am amazed how investors just keep throwing good money after bad with companies like AirAsia X. Has any industry destroyed more capital in the last 40 years than the airline industry? My bet is that AirAsia X never even starts up again. Last call for A330 will be made next year with last aircraft produced in 2025.


Any source for your last call and end of production statement?
 
ScottB
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Thu Jul 08, 2021 4:23 pm

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
AirAsia X plans to cut its 78 A339neo order to 15 for delivery from 2027/28 to 2032:
https://airinsight.com/this-summer-is-c ... ir-asia-x/
https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/l ... 40.article


And according to the AirInsight piece, they're still sticking with their ludicrous proposal to creditors. I can't see the creditors accepting a 99.7% haircut with the shareholders retaining any equity in the company whatsoever. If I'm a lessor, I take my aircraft and walk away.
 
Speedy752
Posts: 91
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Thu Jul 08, 2021 4:29 pm

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
AirAsia X plans to cut its 78 A339neo order to 15 for delivery from 2027/28 to 2032:
https://airinsight.com/this-summer-is-c ... ir-asia-x/
https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/l ... 40.article


Something that finally makes sense. Essentially flying current fleet into the ground so lessors can make back their money. If the new business plan is successful they will be willing to commit to new aircraft at that point. Given the current market this seems like a “best case” for creditors to possibly make back their money, or worst case not lose any more. In today’s market finding new homes for those planes would be a struggle, this may net them a return although I still don’t see why airasia doesn’t use 321LRs to do what AAX does but it sounds at least workable.
 
Jetport
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Thu Jul 08, 2021 5:31 pm

AaronPMI wrote:
Jetport wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
This looks like a game of which will close first, the A330neo production line or AirAsia X.


After skimming the links, I am amazed how investors just keep throwing good money after bad with companies like AirAsia X. Has any industry destroyed more capital in the last 40 years than the airline industry? My bet is that AirAsia X never even starts up again. Last call for A330 will be made next year with last aircraft produced in 2025.


Any source for your last call and end of production statement?


No source, just speculating. That's why I said it was my bet. Not good when your largest customer will not take any aircraft until at least 2027, and even 2027/28 is highly dubious.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 3132
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Thu Jul 08, 2021 5:39 pm

Jetport wrote:
AaronPMI wrote:
Jetport wrote:

After skimming the links, I am amazed how investors just keep throwing good money after bad with companies like AirAsia X. Has any industry destroyed more capital in the last 40 years than the airline industry? My bet is that AirAsia X never even starts up again. Last call for A330 will be made next year with last aircraft produced in 2025.


Any source for your last call and end of production statement?


No source, just speculating. That's why I said it was my bet. Not good when your largest customer will not take any aircraft until at least 2027, and even 2027/28 is highly dubious.


Well, after cancellations, DL will be the largest customer and has already taken delivery.
 
ScottB
Posts: 7408
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Thu Jul 08, 2021 5:44 pm

Speedy752 wrote:
Essentially flying current fleet into the ground so lessors can make back their money.


That's not the plan at all. AAX wants the creditors (largely lessors and Airbus) to agree to wipe out $15 billion in debt in exchange for a promise to pay a grand total of $48 million several years down the road, if they can. The lessors aren't making back their money -- they're taking a gigantic haircut without even the potential for some appreciation by way of an equity stake.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Thu Jul 08, 2021 7:23 pm

Jetport wrote:
AaronPMI wrote:
Jetport wrote:

After skimming the links, I am amazed how investors just keep throwing good money after bad with companies like AirAsia X. Has any industry destroyed more capital in the last 40 years than the airline industry? My bet is that AirAsia X never even starts up again. Last call for A330 will be made next year with last aircraft produced in 2025.


Any source for your last call and end of production statement?


No source, just speculating. That's why I said it was my bet. Not good when your largest customer will not take any aircraft until at least 2027, and even 2027/28 is highly dubious.

At this point Delta's order is all keeping the A330NEO going. I see a few potential orders, but I speculate that is to take up white tails.

What are the leasors' position? I cannot imagine any are not cutting A330NEO commitments.

AirAsiaX has mucked up the leasing market, A330NEO, and I imagine the AirAsia side of the house isn't playing nice either.

The proposals from AirAsiaX scream reposses aircraft. All aircraft. That would be too much of a glut of A330NEO.

Lightsaber
7 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
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Polot
Posts: 11864
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Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Thu Jul 08, 2021 8:11 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Jetport wrote:
AaronPMI wrote:

Any source for your last call and end of production statement?


No source, just speculating. That's why I said it was my bet. Not good when your largest customer will not take any aircraft until at least 2027, and even 2027/28 is highly dubious.


Well, after cancellations, DL will be the largest customer and has already taken delivery.

The second largest order (after AAX) is actually a UFO for 40, placed shortly before the pandemic began in late 2019. That UFO is heavily rumored, but never confirmed, to be the HNA group, apparently as a way of getting out of A330ceo/A350 commitments by taking A330neos later. Of course HNA group is also not doing so hot and is also bankrupt…
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