Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

  • 1
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
  • 9
  • 10
 
User avatar
flee
Posts: 1489
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:14 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Tue Oct 05, 2021 3:18 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
flee wrote:
RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
Malaysia's AirAsia Group wins approval for US$120m government-guaranteed loan

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... nteed-loan

[KUALA LUMPUR] Malaysia's AirAsia Group has received approval from Danajamin Nasional Berhad for a club facility of up to RM500 million (S$162.3 million), it said in a statement on Tuesday.

After applying for more than 1.5 years, they finally attained the loan approval. However the USD120mil can barely make a dent on their accounting provisional for next quarter. FYI, AirAsia X reported a loss of about MYR24.63bn ($5.89bn) in the June quarter compared with a loss of MYR305.2m reported in the same period in 2020. It also made provisions of MYR23.8bn (!!) during the period for amount payable to creditors where it is in default under terms of the contract.

Please note that this loan is for AirAsia Group, the short haul airline. It does not concern AirAsia X at all.

Yes, but I'm sure you have realized that given that there is no AirAsia Group thread, that discussions about AirAsia Group itself have been all over this thread.

In any case, the root cause of all of AirAsia's (whether X or not) problems are largely the same - one man's ego.

Perhaps there should be another thread on AirAsia Group. These are two separate legal entities with two different stock exchange listings. Since this thread is about AirAsia X's plans to survive, I suggest that we do not include information that does not concern it.

This loan does not have any impact on AirAsia X's financials.
 
jeffrey0032j
Posts: 1078
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:11 pm

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Tue Oct 05, 2021 4:08 pm

flee wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
flee wrote:
Please note that this loan is for AirAsia Group, the short haul airline. It does not concern AirAsia X at all.

Yes, but I'm sure you have realized that given that there is no AirAsia Group thread, that discussions about AirAsia Group itself have been all over this thread.

In any case, the root cause of all of AirAsia's (whether X or not) problems are largely the same - one man's ego.

Perhaps there should be another thread on AirAsia Group. These are two separate legal entities with two different stock exchange listings. Since this thread is about AirAsia X's plans to survive, I suggest that we do not include information that does not concern it.

This loan does not have any impact on AirAsia X's financials.

Two separate legal entities that essentially function as one, one falls, the other will suffer, thats how intertwined their fates are, so I don't see any issues with both X and non-X discussions in this thread.
 
RoyalBrunei757
Posts: 690
Joined: Mon Apr 12, 2021 6:18 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Oct 06, 2021 6:31 am

AirAsia and Airbus agrees to rework Airbus A321neo aircraft orders

https://themalaysianreserve.com/2021/10 ... Hk3r0crWu8

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 021-10-06/

AIRASIA Group Bhd has reaffirmed its commitment to transform its present mainly-A320 aircraft fleet to the higher-capacity, more fuel-efficient A321neo with the signing of an amendment agreement with Airbus S.A.S in which AirAsia will convert its remaining A320 aircraft orders to the A321neo.

In a statement today AAGB said the contract marked AirAsia’s commitment to purchase the largest model in the best-selling A320 Family.

“With the conversion of its remaining 13 A320 undelivered aircraft to the A321neo, AirAsia now has a total order of 362 A321neo aircraft that will be allocated based on demand among its airlines within the Group, with deliveries up until 2035, as agreed between AirAsia and Airbus,” said AAGB.

At present, the Group has a total fleet size of 211 aircraft comprising 169 A320, 38 A320neo and 4 A321neo aircraft.


Therefore for the Group fleet, orders are:
A321neo - 362
A321XLR - 30
A330neo - 78

In operation fleet:
A320ceo -189
A320neo - 45
A321neo - 4
A330ceo - 31 (1 pending for delivery)

However, Reuters is reporting different numbers:
A320ceo -169
A320neo - 38
A321neo - 4
(Did not mention A330ceo)

Shall know the actual figure in next quarterly update.
 
User avatar
TheFlyingDisk
Posts: 2382
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2008 12:43 pm

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Oct 06, 2021 7:07 am

It seems that the AirAsia Group is looking for a November kickoff as Malaysia is expected to restart interstate travel soon, with a prelude to international travel thereafter.
 
peterinlisbon
Posts: 1977
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 3:37 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Oct 06, 2021 7:40 am

I wonder if one possible solution would be to leverage bases in places like Bengalaru, Dubai and Istanbul then offer short haul flights connecting them with the option of taking multiple flights. That way you could still get to Europe on Air Asia, but with a few stops along the way. They could use the A330s across their network to fill in where more capacity is needed and move them around based on demand.
 
fcogafa
Posts: 1350
Joined: Fri May 16, 2008 4:37 pm

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:39 am

The usual Air Asia process of changing orders and delaying them in the process - 2035??
 
RoyalBrunei757
Posts: 690
Joined: Mon Apr 12, 2021 6:18 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Oct 06, 2021 1:13 pm

fcogafa wrote:
The usual Air Asia process of changing orders and delaying them in the process - 2035??

Truth to be told, this is the first time the adjusted their order and lengthen the delivery period.

Their previous brush with order cancellation was for AirAsia X three A330-202 meant for LGW route, two were completed and were sold pretty quickly to Iraqi Airways and Hong Kong Jet. Third was cancelled.

Then you have the six ntu when covid19 hits. Four A320neo ntu went to SkyGreece and two A321neo ntu went to the Russian North West Airlines.
 
User avatar
TheFlyingDisk
Posts: 2382
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2008 12:43 pm

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:00 am

TheFlyingDisk wrote:
It seems that the AirAsia Group is looking for a November kickoff as Malaysia is expected to restart interstate travel soon, with a prelude to international travel thereafter.


AirAsia plans to reactivate 30-45 aircraft this month if interstate borders lift

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... rders-lift

AirAsia Group Bhd is looking to reactivate about 30 to 45 aircraft this month should interstate borders lift, said the group’s president (airlines) Bo Lingam.

“We are looking forward to the reopening of interstate travel. We have started retraining pilots in anticipation of the opening. Should interstate travel be allowed, we are looking to have 20 aircrafts ready for reactivation by Oct 10 and about another 10 more by Oct 20. If all goes well, we are planning to reactivate another 15 aircraft by this month end,” Lingam told The Edge when contacted.


Light at the end of the tunnel? I know there's pent up demand for travel.
 
RoyalBrunei757
Posts: 690
Joined: Mon Apr 12, 2021 6:18 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Thu Oct 07, 2021 4:24 am

TheFlyingDisk wrote:
TheFlyingDisk wrote:
It seems that the AirAsia Group is looking for a November kickoff as Malaysia is expected to restart interstate travel soon, with a prelude to international travel thereafter.


AirAsia plans to reactivate 30-45 aircraft this month if interstate borders lift

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... rders-lift

AirAsia Group Bhd is looking to reactivate about 30 to 45 aircraft this month should interstate borders lift, said the group’s president (airlines) Bo Lingam.

“We are looking forward to the reopening of interstate travel. We have started retraining pilots in anticipation of the opening. Should interstate travel be allowed, we are looking to have 20 aircrafts ready for reactivation by Oct 10 and about another 10 more by Oct 20. If all goes well, we are planning to reactivate another 15 aircraft by this month end,” Lingam told The Edge when contacted.


Light at the end of the tunnel? I know there's pent up demand for travel.

Perhaps so, once the country vaccination rate hits 90%, the country will gradually lift cross state travel. Hopefully everyone will keep their social distance, wear mask and take preventive measures. AirAsia needs to get their aircraft up in the air fast to earn back some $$. 30-45 is almost half of their AirAsia Malaysia fleet.
 
RoyalBrunei757
Posts: 690
Joined: Mon Apr 12, 2021 6:18 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Mon Oct 18, 2021 11:29 am

AirAsia X to hold crucial creditors meeting to vote on debt restructuring plan on Nov 12
AirAsia X falls 5% on plan to pay just 0.5% of US$8.1b debt owed to creditors

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... lan-nov-12
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... -creditors

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 18): In a crucial step to determine its future, AirAsia X Bhd (AAX), the low-cost long-haul affiliate of AirAsia Group Bhd, will hold a meeting with scheme creditors on Nov 12 to vote on its proposed plan to restructure RM63.5 billion of debt.

The proposed debt restructuring requires the approval of at least 75% of the total debt value that votes in each class of creditors. Failure to get creditors’ approval for its business restructuring will likely see the carrier becoming insolvent and result in material losses to its stakeholders.

“Under an assumed liquidation scenario of AAX, the estimated recovery for the creditors of AAX is nil,” AAX warned in its explanatory statement.

According to AAX’s explanatory statement, all aircraft lessors are provided with two options — to either continue leasing its aircraft to AAX on new leasing terms or to accept the termination of the lease pursuant to the scheme upon which the relevant aircraft will be returned to the lessor. There are currently 29 aircraft leased from lessors. It had RM444.32 million in outstanding amounts owing to lessors for lease rentals and end of lease payments as at June 30, 2020.

As of Oct 8, 2021, two lessors, namely International Lease Finance Corp and Sky High I Leasing Co Ltd, have exercised or indicated an intention to exercise their right to terminate the leasing arrangements under the existing documents with AAX and have their respective aircraft returned to them, according to AAX.


So basically they are holding a gun to the creditors' head and say take it or leave it and if the company goes under, the lessors will stand to gain nothing. Glad that ILFC and Sky High I Leasing Co Ltd asked AirAsia X to go fly kite far far away......
 
Opus99
Posts: 2669
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Mon Oct 18, 2021 11:31 am

https://www.reuters.com/article/airasia ... SL4N2RD04Q

"Half of the total liability is the cost of terminating airplane orders from its largest creditor Airbus SE for 78 A330neo widebodies and 30 A321neo narrowbodies, the document said."

Thats a lot of 330Neos
 
ScottB
Posts: 7595
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Mon Oct 18, 2021 4:36 pm

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
AirAsia X falls 5% on plan to pay just 0.5% of US$8.1b debt owed to creditors


0.5% of $8.1 billion works out to about $40 million to be spread among all the creditors. Airbus apparently gets about half of that for agreeing to terminate orders which wouldn't be filled anyway if AAX goes under, so no real skin off their nose. The rest of the creditors really ought to tell AAX to go pound sand -- not out of spite, but because the precedent is horrible if they don't. The shareholders aren't completely wiped out, which they ought to be in any restructuring which expects the creditors to take the most pain. The restructured leases are probably at or below the impaired market value, and lessors would be dumb to agree to them rather than waiting for likely better offers at other carriers. And the creditors really don't get any opportunity to participate in potential gains -- there's just a promise to pay the tiny 0.5% of the debt owed several years down the road.

Seriously, shut it down.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23078
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Mon Oct 18, 2021 4:59 pm

Opus99 wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/airasia-x-restructuring/malaysias-airasia-x-proposes-paying-0-5-of-8-1-bln-debt-owed-to-creditors-document-idUSL4N2RD04Q

"Half of the total liability is the cost of terminating airplane orders from its largest creditor Airbus SE for 78 A330neo widebodies and 30 A321neo narrowbodies, the document said."

Thats a lot of 330Neos

Wait, terminating 78 A330NEO! Wow, that is everything of the NEO order book, or did I misread? That is 23% of A330NEO orders, ouch.

I can see Airbus accepting (facing reality for a little cash), but why would anyone else?!?

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 12382
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Mon Oct 18, 2021 5:10 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/airasia-x-restructuring/malaysias-airasia-x-proposes-paying-0-5-of-8-1-bln-debt-owed-to-creditors-document-idUSL4N2RD04Q

"Half of the total liability is the cost of terminating airplane orders from its largest creditor Airbus SE for 78 A330neo widebodies and 30 A321neo narrowbodies, the document said."

Thats a lot of 330Neos

Wait, terminating 78 A330NEO! Wow, that is everything of the NEO order book, or did I misread? That is 23% of A330NEO orders, ouch.

I can see Airbus accepting (facing reality for a little cash), but why would anyone else?!?

Lightsaber

That’s Air Asia X’s entire order book. It is not clear to me if AAX said they will cancel everything or just part and Reuters is just listing out their entire order. Previous reports were saying they would go down to 15(? Can’t remember exact number) NEOs but first deliveries pushed out until end of decade.
 
JohanTally
Posts: 449
Joined: Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:44 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Mon Oct 18, 2021 8:39 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/airasia-x-restructuring/malaysias-airasia-x-proposes-paying-0-5-of-8-1-bln-debt-owed-to-creditors-document-idUSL4N2RD04Q

"Half of the total liability is the cost of terminating airplane orders from its largest creditor Airbus SE for 78 A330neo widebodies and 30 A321neo narrowbodies, the document said."

Thats a lot of 330Neos

Wait, terminating 78 A330NEO! Wow, that is everything of the NEO order book, or did I misread? That is 23% of A330NEO orders, ouch.

I can see Airbus accepting (facing reality for a little cash), but why would anyone else?!?

Lightsaber

If AAX is indeed canceling the A330NEO order plus the 28 Iran Air ordered that are in purgatory that's nearly a third of the total orders and almost 40% of outstanding deliveries.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 10169
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Mon Oct 18, 2021 10:10 pm

ScottB wrote:
The rest of the creditors really ought to tell AAX to go pound sand -- not out of spite, but because the precedent is horrible if they don't. The shareholders aren't completely wiped out, which they ought to be in any restructuring which expects the creditors to take the most pain. The restructured leases are probably at or below the impaired market value, and lessors would be dumb to agree to them rather than waiting for likely better offers at other carriers. And the creditors really don't get any opportunity to participate in potential gains -- there's just a promise to pay the tiny 0.5% of the debt owed several years down the road.


That does get to outlining the considered (not spiteful) reason to vote no: a lease company voting no is betting on getting better lease rates elsewhere. If anybody knows current market rates, it's the lease companies, and Delta's transactions (among others) show that planes can be placed.

Mark November 12 on the calendar!
 
RoyalBrunei757
Posts: 690
Joined: Mon Apr 12, 2021 6:18 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Mon Oct 18, 2021 10:18 pm

Polot wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/airasia-x-restructuring/malaysias-airasia-x-proposes-paying-0-5-of-8-1-bln-debt-owed-to-creditors-document-idUSL4N2RD04Q

"Half of the total liability is the cost of terminating airplane orders from its largest creditor Airbus SE for 78 A330neo widebodies and 30 A321neo narrowbodies, the document said."

Thats a lot of 330Neos

Wait, terminating 78 A330NEO! Wow, that is everything of the NEO order book, or did I misread? That is 23% of A330NEO orders, ouch.

I can see Airbus accepting (facing reality for a little cash), but why would anyone else?!?

Lightsaber

That’s Air Asia X’s entire order book. It is not clear to me if AAX said they will cancel everything or just part and Reuters is just listing out their entire order. Previous reports were saying they would go down to 15(? Can’t remember exact number) NEOs but first deliveries pushed out until end of decade.

They also have another 30 A321XLRs in order actually. Yes, there was a plan to downsize the A339neo order to just 15 instead of 78 A330neo. Tony was also one of the most vocal brainchild behind A330neos back then.......maybe Airbus may ask Delta to take on another 55 A339neo to cover AirAsia X loss? After all Delta needs all those 767 fleet replacement.....
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 12382
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Mon Oct 18, 2021 10:51 pm

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
Polot wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Wait, terminating 78 A330NEO! Wow, that is everything of the NEO order book, or did I misread? That is 23% of A330NEO orders, ouch.

I can see Airbus accepting (facing reality for a little cash), but why would anyone else?!?

Lightsaber

That’s Air Asia X’s entire order book. It is not clear to me if AAX said they will cancel everything or just part and Reuters is just listing out their entire order. Previous reports were saying they would go down to 15(? Can’t remember exact number) NEOs but first deliveries pushed out until end of decade.

They also have another 30 A321XLRs in order actually.

That is what Reuters is referring to when they say 30 A321neo narrow bodies. AAX only has the 78 A330neos and 30 A321XLRs on order. They do not have any normal A321neo or A321LRs on order on top of their 30 XLRs.
 
moa999
Posts: 1103
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Mon Oct 18, 2021 11:15 pm

Is the EM public?

I just feel sorry for the regular debt holders in this company, being lumped in with forward aircraft orders for a vote.

There is this brief pres to equity holders (who are all but wiped out)
http://www.airasiax.com/agm_egm.html

Interestingly they have seemingly stopped doing any quarter or full year financial reporting for some time.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23078
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Mon Oct 18, 2021 11:58 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
ScottB wrote:
The rest of the creditors really ought to tell AAX to go pound sand -- not out of spite, but because the precedent is horrible if they don't. The shareholders aren't completely wiped out, which they ought to be in any restructuring which expects the creditors to take the most pain. The restructured leases are probably at or below the impaired market value, and lessors would be dumb to agree to them rather than waiting for likely better offers at other carriers. And the creditors really don't get any opportunity to participate in potential gains -- there's just a promise to pay the tiny 0.5% of the debt owed several years down the road.


That does get to outlining the considered (not spiteful) reason to vote no: a lease company voting no is betting on getting better lease rates elsewhere. If anybody knows current market rates, it's the lease companies, and Delta's transactions (among others) show that planes can be placed.

Mark November 12 on the calendar!

Lease rates are down, see the lease values thread, but placements are happening.

The value of a top A333 went from $95 million to $58 million or a 39% drop in 2 years. Brutal, but best to get something.

2021 spring pricing:
viewtopic.php?t=1460947

2019 spring pricing:
viewtopic.php?t=1422705

Lightsaber
 
NLINK
Posts: 407
Joined: Sat Nov 15, 2003 3:20 pm

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Tue Oct 19, 2021 12:32 am

lightsaber wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/airasia-x-restructuring/malaysias-airasia-x-proposes-paying-0-5-of-8-1-bln-debt-owed-to-creditors-document-idUSL4N2RD04Q

"Half of the total liability is the cost of terminating airplane orders from its largest creditor Airbus SE for 78 A330neo widebodies and 30 A321neo narrowbodies, the document said."

Thats a lot of 330Neos

Wait, terminating 78 A330NEO! Wow, that is everything of the NEO order book, or did I misread? That is 23% of A330NEO orders, ouch.

I can see Airbus accepting (facing reality for a little cash), but why would anyone else?!?

Lightsaber



If this is true that is probably a little over 4 years of production left at the current rate of 2 per month. I know some of the other orders will also probably never get delivered either.
 
EBT
Posts: 100
Joined: Tue Mar 27, 2018 1:04 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:33 am

lightsaber wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
ScottB wrote:
The rest of the creditors really ought to tell AAX to go pound sand -- not out of spite, but because the precedent is horrible if they don't. The shareholders aren't completely wiped out, which they ought to be in any restructuring which expects the creditors to take the most pain. The restructured leases are probably at or below the impaired market value, and lessors would be dumb to agree to them rather than waiting for likely better offers at other carriers. And the creditors really don't get any opportunity to participate in potential gains -- there's just a promise to pay the tiny 0.5% of the debt owed several years down the road.


That does get to outlining the considered (not spiteful) reason to vote no: a lease company voting no is betting on getting better lease rates elsewhere. If anybody knows current market rates, it's the lease companies, and Delta's transactions (among others) show that planes can be placed.

Mark November 12 on the calendar!

Lease rates are down, see the lease values thread, but placements are happening.

The value of a top A333 went from $95 million to $58 million or a 39% drop in 2 years. Brutal, but best to get something.

2021 spring pricing:
viewtopic.php?t=1460947

2019 spring pricing:
viewtopic.php?t=1422705

Lightsaber


I think it's entirely reasonable for the lessor to look at the recent placements plus the interest in A330-300P2Fs as more favourable than the (likely) poor offer to keep their aircraft with AirAsia X. I think when the restructuring kicked off that most lessors would have chosen to take whatever they can get from AAX rather than have the aircraft earning nothing, knowing full well that it is a speculative bet, but things are changing. If the post-COVID pent-up demand can be sustained over the next 1-2 years, then there will be some operators that may be looking for cheap additional lift and that could give more confidence to some lessors to take their jets back and place them with other carriers, likely in Europe or North America.

The alternative is to take a punt on AAX staying alive and riding the post-COVID wave. But this is a carrier based in Asia where vaccination rates vary, travel protocols are expected to be far from harmonious, and large leisure markets (eg Australia) may be redirecting their moneys elsewhere. The connectivity with AirAsia will be essential, but again that relies on travel lanes/bubbles and transfer protocols being put in place and remaining stable. Add in rising fuel prices, the cost of debt, and a weak domestic economy, and it looks like too much risk to me.

Heck, the business model only ever worked when fuel was low, demand was high and AAX could beat up Malaysia Airlines and other full-service carriers in the region. And even amid pretty good trading conditions, they still struggled to turn an operating profit.
 
RoyalBrunei757
Posts: 690
Joined: Mon Apr 12, 2021 6:18 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Tue Oct 19, 2021 4:43 am

Polot wrote:
RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
Polot wrote:
That’s Air Asia X’s entire order book. It is not clear to me if AAX said they will cancel everything or just part and Reuters is just listing out their entire order. Previous reports were saying they would go down to 15(? Can’t remember exact number) NEOs but first deliveries pushed out until end of decade.

They also have another 30 A321XLRs in order actually.

That is what Reuters is referring to when they say 30 A321neo narrow bodies. AAX only has the 78 A330neos and 30 A321XLRs on order. They do not have any normal A321neo or A321LRs on order on top of their 30 XLRs.

I was referring to your statement "That’s Air Asia X’s entire order book." Not that of Reuters.
 
User avatar
flee
Posts: 1489
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:14 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Tue Oct 19, 2021 6:04 am

ScottB wrote:
RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
AirAsia X falls 5% on plan to pay just 0.5% of US$8.1b debt owed to creditors


The shareholders aren't completely wiped out, which they ought to be in any restructuring which expects the creditors to take the most pain.

Shareholders are 99.9% wiped out and there is no realistic hope of ever recovering their investments. Creditors are only slightly better off, 99.5% wiped out.

http://www.airasiax.com/newsroom/AAX_Pr ... 14.12.2020).pdf

http://www.airasiax.com/newsroom/010620 ... AX_EGM.pdf

I don't think Airasia X will ever be able to regain their loss of reputation and credibility. They cannot blame it on Covid-19 alone because the airline was already in a tailspin before Covid-19 broke out.
 
User avatar
JerseyFlyer
Posts: 1776
Joined: Fri May 25, 2007 7:24 pm

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Tue Oct 19, 2021 6:24 am

It looks to me like the closure of Air Asia X (not Air Air Asia) is on the cards. They are reducing their current fleet and cancelling all new orders.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2680
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:13 am

lightsaber wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
That does get to outlining the considered (not spiteful) reason to vote no: a lease company voting no is betting on getting better lease rates elsewhere. If anybody knows current market rates, it's the lease companies, and Delta's transactions (among others) show that planes can be placed.

Mark November 12 on the calendar!

Lease rates are down, see the lease values thread, but placements are happening.

The value of a top A333 went from $95 million to $58 million or a 39% drop in 2 years. Brutal, but best to get something.

2021 spring pricing:
viewtopic.php?t=1460947

2019 spring pricing:
viewtopic.php?t=1422705

Lightsaber


So AAX leased at the 2016-2019 prices, then only a few years later stiffed the lender for over 1.5 years of payments. Repossession time with the hope of getting the 2021 rates after spending a big chunk updating the maintenance, and making the changes for the new customer. It's a huge drop in value of the asset, too many of these and the lender dies. I cannot imagine any lender with an asset not taking that option, 1/2% is too low to even pursue with all of the lawyer fees.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 10169
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Tue Oct 19, 2021 10:43 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
So AAX leased at the 2016-2019 prices, then only a few years later stiffed the lender for over 1.5 years of payments. Repossession time with the hope of getting the 2021 rates after spending a big chunk updating the maintenance, and making the changes for the new customer. It's a huge drop in value of the asset, too many of these and the lender dies.


The power to reject contracts is central to the freedoms of business reorganization. Yes, Air Asia X may be trying (a little too hard) opportunistically to drive down lease rates in the Covid environment.

Maybe Airbus and Boeing should be looking a little harder at business plans and strength of management at buyers, instead of just bragging about big orders.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23078
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:21 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
So AAX leased at the 2016-2019 prices, then only a few years later stiffed the lender for over 1.5 years of payments. Repossession time with the hope of getting the 2021 rates after spending a big chunk updating the maintenance, and making the changes for the new customer. It's a huge drop in value of the asset, too many of these and the lender dies.


The power to reject contracts is central to the freedoms of business reorganization. Yes, Air Asia X may be trying (a little too hard) opportunistically to drive down lease rates in the Covid environment.

Maybe Airbus and Boeing should be looking a little harder at business plans and strength of management at buyers, instead of just bragging about big orders.

We were in over production before Covid19 and now we have a situation where Airbus and Boeing only survive by continuing over-production at the cost of prior model values. Leasing companies will take the bulk of the financial hit.

The over production of wide-bodies started the A339 vs. 787 rebid that Airbus "won." It was a must win to save the A330NEO. It worked, even if AAX ends up walking away.

Lightsaber
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2680
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Tue Oct 19, 2021 6:42 pm

lightsaber wrote:
The over production of wide-bodies started the A339 vs. 787 rebid that Airbus "won." It was a must win to save the A330NEO. It worked, even if AAX ends up walking away.

Lightsaber


With the situation unfolding now, Airbus may regret this 'must win'. They probably have a lot of parts already being produced, go ahead with white tales?
Those more than 2 years out may not have long lead parts on order.

Airbus will probably entice Atlanta with an offer that will be hard to refuse. Delta always like true 'bargains', but they have added a bunch of used A350's recently, do they need a lot of A330's?
 
dstblj52
Posts: 743
Joined: Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Tue Oct 19, 2021 7:18 pm

flee wrote:
ScottB wrote:
RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
AirAsia X falls 5% on plan to pay just 0.5% of US$8.1b debt owed to creditors


The shareholders aren't completely wiped out, which they ought to be in any restructuring which expects the creditors to take the most pain.

Shareholders are 99.9% wiped out and there is no realistic hope of ever recovering their investments. Creditors are only slightly better off, 99.5% wiped out.

http://www.airasiax.com/newsroom/AAX_Pr ... 14.12.2020).pdf

http://www.airasiax.com/newsroom/010620 ... AX_EGM.pdf

I don't think Airasia X will ever be able to regain their loss of reputation and credibility. They cannot blame it on Covid-19 alone because the airline was already in a tailspin before Covid-19 broke out.

they should be 100% wiped out so creditors are only 99.4% wiped out because thats what they risked for the higher rio
 
User avatar
william
Posts: 3557
Joined: Thu Jun 10, 1999 1:31 pm

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Tue Oct 19, 2021 7:58 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The over production of wide-bodies started the A339 vs. 787 rebid that Airbus "won." It was a must win to save the A330NEO. It worked, even if AAX ends up walking away.

Lightsaber


With the situation unfolding now, Airbus may regret this 'must win'. They probably have a lot of parts already being produced, go ahead with white tales?
Those more than 2 years out may not have long lead parts on order.

Airbus will probably entice Atlanta with an offer that will be hard to refuse. Delta always like true 'bargains', but they have added a bunch of used A350's recently, do they need a lot of A330's?


Not necessarily, word will get out of the fire sale, and every other major will want to start their negotiations at the Firesale price.
 
User avatar
JerseyFlyer
Posts: 1776
Joined: Fri May 25, 2007 7:24 pm

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Oct 20, 2021 7:04 am

william wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The over production of wide-bodies started the A339 vs. 787 rebid that Airbus "won." It was a must win to save the A330NEO. It worked, even if AAX ends up walking away.

Lightsaber


With the situation unfolding now, Airbus may regret this 'must win'. They probably have a lot of parts already being produced, go ahead with white tales?
Those more than 2 years out may not have long lead parts on order.

Airbus will probably entice Atlanta with an offer that will be hard to refuse. Delta always like true 'bargains', but they have added a bunch of used A350's recently, do they need a lot of A330's?


Not necessarily, word will get out of the fire sale, and every other major will want to start their negotiations at the Firesale price.


Airbus has largely mitigated risk by reducing production to 2 a month together with near term deliveries - Air Belgium, Condor and the ITA MoU. A lot of the pain is shared with lessors also.
 
DartHerald
Posts: 157
Joined: Mon Nov 14, 2016 2:08 pm

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Oct 20, 2021 9:55 am

There are still some big 767 fleets to replace - the A330Neo might still be a candidate if available at the right price.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 10169
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Oct 20, 2021 11:02 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The over production of wide-bodies started the A339 vs. 787 rebid that Airbus "won." It was a must win to save the A330NEO. It worked, even if AAX ends up walking away.

Lightsaber


With the situation unfolding now, Airbus may regret this 'must win'. They probably have a lot of parts already being produced, go ahead with white tales?
Those more than 2 years out may not have long lead parts on order.

Airbus will probably entice Atlanta with an offer that will be hard to refuse. Delta always like true 'bargains', but they have added a bunch of used A350's recently, do they need a lot of A330's?


We're getting away from Air Asia X but...

I think DL will be wary of walking into another (likely) orphaned fleet type, in the manner of MD-90s and 717s that got exponentially more costly to service over time. Fewer than a hundred A330neos have been delivered. That's not enough to promise deep and cost-effective support long-term. Airbus may never get to 250. (Keep an eye on the leasing firm orders - they don't want to get stuck with a rare type, either.)

If anything, I could see DL converting some 330neo orders to 359s or 321XLRs.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23078
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Oct 20, 2021 1:01 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The over production of wide-bodies started the A339 vs. 787 rebid that Airbus "won." It was a must win to save the A330NEO. It worked, even if AAX ends up walking away.

Lightsaber


With the situation unfolding now, Airbus may regret this 'must win'. They probably have a lot of parts already being produced, go ahead with white tales?
Those more than 2 years out may not have long lead parts on order.

Airbus will probably entice Atlanta with an offer that will be hard to refuse. Delta always like true 'bargains', but they have added a bunch of used A350's recently, do they need a lot of A330's?


We're getting away from Air Asia X but...

I think DL will be wary of walking into another (likely) orphaned fleet type, in the manner of MD-90s and 717s that got exponentially more costly to service over time. Fewer than a hundred A330neos have been delivered. That's not enough to promise deep and cost-effective support long-term. Airbus may never get to 250. (Keep an eye on the leasing firm orders - they don't want to get stuck with a rare type, either.)

If anything, I could see DL converting some 330neo orders to 359s or 321XLRs.

AirAsiaX provided the economics of scale for the A330NEO. One reason I am very interested in how many they take as this does determine the future of the A330NEO.

Delta could go either way.

I'm not sure how AirAsiaX restructures in a viable way...

Lightsaber
 
RoyalBrunei757
Posts: 690
Joined: Mon Apr 12, 2021 6:18 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Tue Nov 02, 2021 4:40 am

AirAsia X slips into PN17 status, faces risks of delisting after auditor expressed disclaimer of opinion on FPE21 accounts

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... 1-accounts

> Current liabilities exceed current assets by more than 34 billion ringgit, Ernst & Young said.
> Shareholders’ deficit of 33.6 billion ringgit—has triggered defaults for various contracts, it added.

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 29): AirAsia X Bhd (AAX), the low-cost long-haul affiliate of AirAsia Group Bhd, is now classified as a Practice Note 17 (PN17) company after its external auditor Messrs Ernst & Young PLT (EY) expressed a disclaimer of opinion on its audited financial statements for the 18-month financial period ended June 30, 2021 (FPE21).

In a bourse filing on Friday, the carrier said it has 12 months to regularise its financial condition, failing which it will be delisted from Bursa Malaysia (Malaysia Stock Exchange).

"The company is taking the necessary steps to address its PN17 status," AAX said, noting that it is currently undertaking a proposed debt and corporate restructuring, as well as a proposed fundraising.

The group and the company reported a net loss of RM33.72 billion and RM33.79 billion respectively for FPE21, while current liabilities exceeded current assets by RM34.21 billion and RM34.30 billion respectively. In addition, the group and the company reported a shareholders’ deficit of RM33.58 billion and RM33.66 billion respectively.

EY also noted that as a result of the pandemic, AAX has grounded most of its aircraft fleet since March 2020 and has deferred payment to creditors. Consequently, it has triggered events of default for various contracts and has made a provision for termination claims of RM25.16 billion in respect of these contracts.

I have a friend who invested RM30,000 when they first launched their IPO. He is prepared to kiss his money goodbye.
 
moa999
Posts: 1103
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:57 am

I think part of the issue is that not many airlines are in a financial position to just take a gamble on some cheap widebodies. Everyone has suffered through the pandemic.

If I look at Qantas for example, whilst they've got some ageing 332s and 333s.

The near term focus is on the order book for even older narrowbodies (738s, 717s and F100s), and they've still got to make the decision on Sunrise.

And they've got a larger order book for 321XLRs and a bunch of cheap 787 orders and options that arguably could replaces the 332s and 333s.
 
Opus99
Posts: 2669
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Fri Nov 12, 2021 10:11 am

https://twitter.com/avweekscho/status/1 ... 27656?s=21

Air Asia X to cancel 63 A330NEOs and 10 A321XLRs

That leaves the official order book for the 330NEO at 270

If you remove Iran Air it leaves it 242 for the whole program
 
moa999
Posts: 1103
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Sat Nov 13, 2021 12:19 am

Another article here
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -creditors

Can't understand the share price reaction.
Aren't existing holders going to be diluted like crazy
 
User avatar
mercure1
Posts: 5286
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:13 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Mon Nov 15, 2021 4:52 am

AirAsia Group say 99% of its creditors approved Air Asia X debt restructuring plan. They expect to complete the restructuring which includes raising US $150 million in fresh equity by the first quarter of 2022.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanbu ... ring-plan/
 
moa999
Posts: 1103
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Mon Nov 15, 2021 6:24 am

AAX also saying that they will give travel vouchers to passenger creditors in the future.

https://newsroom.airasia.com/news/clari ... format=amp
 
User avatar
TheFlyingDisk
Posts: 2382
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2008 12:43 pm

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Mon Nov 15, 2021 7:20 am

moa999 wrote:
AAX also saying that they will give travel vouchers to passenger creditors in the future.

https://newsroom.airasia.com/news/clari ... format=amp


Many passengers feel that this is not enough. They want cash.

The authorities have already given their ultimatum

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... uld-not-be
 
moa999
Posts: 1103
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Mon Nov 15, 2021 8:00 am

I think the announcement is responding to that.
Reality is however the law treats them as creditors, and I don't think Mavcom can overcome that.

And there is no cash at the moment.
So it's basically accept what is on offer or get nothing as the airline folds completely.

No new investors will come in if there is a risk their money which is intended to run the business, will be distributed out.
 
Gremlinzzzz
Posts: 418
Joined: Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:28 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Mon Nov 15, 2021 8:32 am

moa999 wrote:
I think the announcement is responding to that.
Reality is however the law treats them as creditors, and I don't think Mavcom can overcome that.

And there is no cash at the moment.
So it's basically accept what is on offer or get nothing as the airline folds completely.

No new investors will come in if there is a risk their money which is intended to run the business, will be distributed out.
Customers are not creditors.

How are customers supposed to accept that all they will get is 0.5% of what they paid? That is AAX returning absolutely nothing to the client.
 
moa999
Posts: 1103
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Mon Nov 15, 2021 8:34 am

Customers of a bankrupt entity that owns $$$s of millions to others including secured creditors get ZERO in a wind up situation.

That's the alternative.

No different to if you had a gift voucher for a store that's gone out of business. Legally you are a creditor.
 
Gremlinzzzz
Posts: 418
Joined: Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:28 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Mon Nov 15, 2021 8:56 am

moa999 wrote:
Customers of a bankrupt entity that owns $$$s of millions to others including secured creditors get ZERO in a wind up situation.

That's the alternative.

No different to if you had a gift voucher for a store that's gone out of business. Legally you are a creditor.
Nope, and that is what Mavcom is telling AAX.

You are not giving money, or equipment and expecting something back, you are paying for a service. In fact, good airlines are not supposed to touch that money until you step into a plane. They do not even account for it as earnings until it hits the relevant quarter.

How does any of this need explaining to anyone?
 
moa999
Posts: 1103
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Mon Nov 15, 2021 9:11 am

A few hundred years of legal precedent.

Person A provides business with $1000 on the contractual basis they will be flown from X to Y on Z date.

Bank B provides business with $100000 on the contractual basis that they will be repaid according to X schedule on Y dates.

In both cases A and B have provided money in advance of the contractual obligations being met.
They are thus both seen as creditors and a liability that has to be met from an accounting standpoint.

--

I don't disagree that from an ongoing business sense, it makes sense to treat A better, as they are potential future customers.

But there is no deal if all the As want cash. The company will be liquidated and the will very likely get nothing.
 
Gremlinzzzz
Posts: 418
Joined: Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:28 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Mon Nov 15, 2021 9:58 am

moa999 wrote:
A few hundred years of legal precedent.

Person A provides business with $1000 on the contractual basis they will be flown from X to Y on Z date.

Bank B provides business with $100000 on the contractual basis that they will be repaid according to X schedule on Y dates.

In both cases A and B have provided money in advance of the contractual obligations being met.
They are thus both seen as creditors and a liability that has to be met from an accounting standpoint.

--

I don't disagree that from an ongoing business sense, it makes sense to treat A better, as they are potential future customers.

But there is no deal if all the As want cash. The company will be liquidated and the will very likely get nothing.
They are getting nothing. If I paid $300 for a ticket, AAX is telling me to take $1.50.

Do you see the madness in all of this? Secondly, the regulator is telling them that they cannot classify passengers as creditors. They either offer a service or pay back what they owe. What part of this needs explaining? And why can you not see that they are not like a bank that takes a risk that AAX is a good company that will come good on its obligation?

One is a customer looking for a service, the other is a business that takes a gamble knowing that some gambles will fail.
 
moa999
Posts: 1103
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Mon Nov 15, 2021 11:27 am

You don't seem to grasp the realities of AirAsiaXs financial situation

There is no money left in the bank account to refund any tickets. It's broke, it's barely ever made money in the last 10 years.

It could very easily go insolvent, meaning ticket holders get nothing and thousands of Malaysians are put of work.

The only way the airline can continue is by raising new capital from other investors (including AAG and the CEO, but also outside investors).
No new money is going to be forthcoming if it's just going to be paid out to people who might not even take a flight.


And I trust the judgement of a court, even in Malaysia, far more than some regulator.


As I said above, for good business reasons, they are willing to give passenger creditors more than 1.5c, but it's going to be in vouchers, encouraging them to use the services, rather than cash (and I suspect there may well be some unpalatable usage conditions, or flights might be more expensive)
 
Gremlinzzzz
Posts: 418
Joined: Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:28 am

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Mon Nov 15, 2021 11:44 am

moa999 wrote:
You don't seem to grasp the realities of AirAsiaXs financial situation

There is no money left in the bank account to refund any tickets. It's broke, it's barely ever made money in the last 10 years.

It could very easily go insolvent, meaning ticket holders get nothing and thousands of Malaysians are put of work.

The only way the airline can continue is by raising new capital from other investors (including AAG and the CEO, but also outside investors).
No new money is going to be forthcoming if it's just going to be paid out to people who might not even take a flight.


And I trust the judgement of a court, even in Malaysia, far more than some regulator.


As I said above, for good business reasons, they are willing to give passenger creditors more than 1.5c, but it's going to be in vouchers, encouraging them to use the services, rather than cash (and I suspect there may well be some unpalatable usage conditions, or flights might be more expensive)
No one cares, especially not clients who paid and are not getting service. No one is going to rule that a business can forego its obligations to its clients so that it can survive.

Taking money and not giving service is fraud. Taking client money and offering to pay back 0.5% is stupidity. If it gets to that point, the airline should just die.
  • 1
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
  • 9
  • 10

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos