AirAsia Group long-haul arm proposed a sweeping restructuring plan that would reduce US $15.3 billion in debt and save the Malaysian carrier from being dragged under by aviation’s worst-ever crisis.

“To avoid liquidation and to allow the airline to fly again, the only option is for AirAsia X to undertake a group-wide debt and corporate restructuring and update its business model,” AirAsia X said. Given the current outlook, “the group will not be able to meet its immediate debt and other financial commitments.” “Going forward, AirAsia X will strive to rebound as a low-cost medium haul airline with a leaner and more sustainable cost base,”

The plan would shrink AirAsia X debt while consolidating every 10 existing AirAsia X shares into one. The proposal requires approval from shareholders, as well as suppliers, creditors and financiers who account for 75% of AirAsia X’s existing obligations, and a court sign-off.

Stock exchange filing
https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_in ... id=3094097

=

Dont see AAX taking its backlog of 78 A330NEO orders, or 10 A350s. Big hit to Airbus

LAXintl wrote:

The plan would shrink AirAsia X debt while consolidating every 10 existing AirAsia X shares into one.

Because reverse splits usually work so well AAX is pretty much finished.

LAXintl wrote:

Dont see AAX taking its backlog of 78 A330NEO orders, or 10 A350s. Big hit to Airbus

That neo order has stunk from day one. It made so little sense, that the only thing that got filled was someone's pockets.

LAXintl wrote:

“To avoid liquidation and to allow the airline to fly again, the only option is for AirAsia X to undertake a group-wide debt and corporate restructuring and update its business model,” AirAsia X said. Given the current outlook, “the group will not be able to meet its immediate debt and other financial commitments.”

Wow. That is straight shooting. That is a reorganizational bankruptcy preamble. If I were holding an AirAsiaX lease, that would scare me.

LAXintl wrote:

Dont see AAX taking its backlog of 78 A330NEO orders, or 10 A350s. Big hit to Airbus

Agreed. I do not see AAX able to take any new aircraft for 3 years. Untangling the current mess will take years.

Lightsaber

Antarius wrote:

LAXintl wrote:

The plan would shrink AirAsia X debt while consolidating every 10 existing AirAsia X shares into one.

Because reverse splits usually work so well AAX is pretty much finished.

LAXintl wrote:

Dont see AAX taking its backlog of 78 A330NEO orders, or 10 A350s. Big hit to Airbus

That neo order has stunk from day one. It made so little sense, that the only thing that got filled was someone's pockets.

If the A330neo order goes bye-bye, could that potentially spell doom for the A330NEO program as a whole?

This airline is the jokes.

They will probably die off and the orders getting cancelled. How many 33neos made already parked up and no delivery to this bankfupt airline??

I don't even understand why they want to save this junk airline. Stupid!!!

LAXintl wrote:

“To avoid liquidation and to allow the airline to fly again, the only option is for AirAsia X to undertake a group-wide debt and corporate restructuring and update its business model,” AirAsia X said. Given the current outlook, “the group will not be able to meet its immediate debt and other financial commitments.” “Going forward, AirAsia X will strive to rebound as a low-cost medium haul airline with a leaner and more sustainable cost base,”

The plan would shrink AirAsia X debt while consolidating every 10 existing AirAsia X shares into one. The proposal requires approval from shareholders, as well as suppliers, creditors and financiers who account for 75% of AirAsia X’s existing obligations, and a court sign-off.

Are there substantial precedents under Malaysian law for reorganization outside of bankruptcy?

Reverse spilt? Meh... Sometimes it's a trick to maintain a minimum share price to stay listed. https://finance.zacks.com/minimum-stock ... -5116.html

LAXintl wrote:

...
Dont see AAX taking its backlog of 78 A330NEO orders, or 10 A350s. Big hit to Airbus

What do you think about the 30 orders for A321neo?

filipinoavgeek wrote:

Antarius wrote:

LAXintl wrote:

The plan would shrink AirAsia X debt while consolidating every 10 existing AirAsia X shares into one.

Because reverse splits usually work so well AAX is pretty much finished.

LAXintl wrote:

Dont see AAX taking its backlog of 78 A330NEO orders, or 10 A350s. Big hit to Airbus

That neo order has stunk from day one. It made so little sense, that the only thing that got filled was someone's pockets.

If the A330neo order goes bye-bye, could that potentially spell doom for the A330NEO program as a whole?

It will certainly be interesting to see what happens. Between the Iran Air order and this AAX one, that's 35% of the order book.

All of AAX's orders are in question. The A321xLR will find new homes. Right now the interesting part is the dearth of widebody demand, in particular an odd model, the A330NEO.

filipinoavgeek wrote:

Antarius wrote:

LAXintl wrote:

The plan would shrink AirAsia X debt while consolidating every 10 existing AirAsia X shares into one.

Because reverse splits usually work so well AAX is pretty much finished.

LAXintl wrote:

Dont see AAX taking its backlog of 78 A330NEO orders, or 10 A350s. Big hit to Airbus

That neo order has stunk from day one. It made so little sense, that the only thing that got filled was someone's pockets.

If the A330neo order goes bye-bye, could that potentially spell doom for the A330NEO program as a whole?

The A330NEO is already the 717 of widebodies. When I go through the order book, I see only 125 to 135 actually happening plus AAX. It won't be the absolute end of the A330NEO immediately, but even if AAX survives, losing so much of the majority opperator is going to sting the economics of scale for support. Just like with the 717, this issue with AAX puts the A330NEO fate in Delta's hands.

It doesn't help when the engine vendor has a deep negative stockholder equity.

Lightsaber

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:

This airline is the jokes.

They will probably die off and the orders getting cancelled. How many 33neos made already parked up and no delivery to this bankfupt airline??

I don't even understand why they want to save this junk airline. Stupid!!!

Saving it prevents or delays a potential domino effect to the main AirAsia narrowbody business, investor confidence is key in these times. If Air Asia X falls, don't expect investors to provide cheap money to Air Asia.

dstblj52 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

All of AAX's orders are in question. The A321xLR will find new homes. Right now the interesting part is the dearth of widebody demand, in particular an odd model, the A330NEO.

filipinoavgeek wrote:

If the A330neo order goes bye-bye, could that potentially spell doom for the A330NEO program as a whole?

The A330NEO is already the 717 of widebodies. When I go through the order book, I see only 125 to 135 actually happening plus AAX. It won't be the absolute end of the A330NEO immediately, but even if AAX survives, losing so much of the majority opperator is going to sting the economics of scale for support. Just like with the 717, this issue with AAX puts the A330NEO fate in Delta's hands.

It doesn't help when the engine vendor has a deep negative stockholder equity.

Lightsaber

Honestly would not shock me to see delta picking up everyone else orders and relying on the CEO to keep the supply chain going for a good little while

But as Lightsaber says, it will become an odd model with very bad economies of scale when it comes to maintenance and parts, and we have seen how long odd aircraft families last in Delta's hands, approx 10 years assuming we start counting from when they become the only significant operator. Probably wiser for DL to ask A and B to fight it all out again, chances are they would choose the 787 for a more sustainable and predictable maintenance experience.

That 330NEO order is in the trash. I mean Airbus will still continue to support the program. It has potential. The 330CEO did very well and maybe they can take some of those replacements, i think they can take majority of those replacements, I’m happy to be challenged on why it won’t . Maybe they can look into a freighter. However till then, Airbus just needs to know how they’ll manage the program

As for air Asia X they should just call it a day

dstblj52 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

All of AAX's orders are in question. The A321xLR will find new homes. Right now the interesting part is the dearth of widebody demand, in particular an odd model, the A330NEO.

filipinoavgeek wrote:

If the A330neo order goes bye-bye, could that potentially spell doom for the A330NEO program as a whole?

The A330NEO is already the 717 of widebodies. When I go through the order book, I see only 125 to 135 actually happening plus AAX. It won't be the absolute end of the A330NEO immediately, but even if AAX survives, losing so much of the majority opperator is going to sting the economics of scale for support. Just like with the 717, this issue with AAX puts the A330NEO fate in Delta's hands.

It doesn't help when the engine vendor has a deep negative stockholder equity.

Lightsaber

Honestly would not shock me to see delta picking up everyone else orders and relying on the CEO to keep the supply chain going for a good little while

Delta only likes oddball planes when the price to acquire them reflects their odd ball status.

I’m not sure if Airbus is willing to go that low on brand new planes.

I don't think many airlines have figured out how to make the LCC concept work with WBs. DY wasn't successful as AAX wasn't, even before C19. I don't know how Scoot, Cebu Pacific or Lionair are performing on their WB routes, and so far the concept of a WB LCC seems only to have worked in Asia, at least partly. But with so many players now part of the market besides AAX, I am not sure if the market is not oversupplied. Furthermore, many countries in that region don't want to to open up without quarantine before a C19 vaccine is available (understandably so), which makes matters worse for airlines and with it AAX. I don't know how they can get out of this. Looks bleak for AAX, its employees as well as the A339.

Capricorn wrote:

I don't think many airlines have figured out how to make the LCC concept work with WBs. DY wasn't successful as AAX wasen't. I don't know how Scoot, Cebu Pacific or Lionair are performing and so far the concept of a WB LCC seems only to have worked in Asia, at least partly. But with so many players now part of the market besides AAX, I am not sure if there is not oversupplied. Furthermore many countries in that region seem not really willing to open up before a C19 vaccine (understandably so), which makes matters worse for airlines and with it AAX. I don't know how they can get out of this. Looks bleak for AAX and its employees as well as the A339.

Doesn't help when the Chinese carriers offer "full service" Y class for as cheap as these LCCs. "Full service" is in brackets because for a lot of Asian destinations, Chinese airlines tend to offer quite a basic meal box instead of a proper meal.

dstblj52 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

All of AAX's orders are in question. The A321xLR will find new homes. Right now the interesting part is the dearth of widebody demand, in particular an odd model, the A330NEO.

filipinoavgeek wrote:

If the A330neo order goes bye-bye, could that potentially spell doom for the A330NEO program as a whole?

The A330NEO is already the 717 of widebodies. When I go through the order book, I see only 125 to 135 actually happening plus AAX. It won't be the absolute end of the A330NEO immediately, but even if AAX survives, losing so much of the majority opperator is going to sting the economics of scale for support. Just like with the 717, this issue with AAX puts the A330NEO fate in Delta's hands.

It doesn't help when the engine vendor has a deep negative stockholder equity.

Lightsaber

Honestly would not shock me to see delta picking up everyone else orders and relying on the CEO to keep the supply chain going for a good little while

They *are* retiring 54 767-300s by 2025...the NEO seems like the natural replacement unless Boeing can get its act together on the MOM.

Capricorn wrote:

I don't think many airlines have figured out how to make the LCC concept work with WBs. DY wasn't successful as AAX wasn't, even before C19. I don't know how Scoot, Cebu Pacific or Lionair are performing on their WB routes, and so far the concept of a WB LCC seems only to have worked in Asia, at least partly. But with so many players now part of the market besides AAX, I am not sure if the market is not oversupplied. Furthermore, many countries in that region don't want to to open up without quarantine before a C19 vaccine is available (understandably so), which makes matters worse for airlines and with it AAX. I don't know how they can get out of this. Looks bleak for AAX, its employees as well as the A339.

In Southeast Asia these days, the only profitable LCC group is VietJet, with a bunch of narrowbodies and not a single widebody airframes.

The pandemic hit hard on widebodies-operator.

jeffrey0032j wrote:

dstblj52 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

All of AAX's orders are in question. The A321xLR will find new homes. Right now the interesting part is the dearth of widebody demand, in particular an odd model, the A330NEO.


The A330NEO is already the 717 of widebodies. When I go through the order book, I see only 125 to 135 actually happening plus AAX. It won't be the absolute end of the A330NEO immediately, but even if AAX survives, losing so much of the majority opperator is going to sting the economics of scale for support. Just like with the 717, this issue with AAX puts the A330NEO fate in Delta's hands.

It doesn't help when the engine vendor has a deep negative stockholder equity.

Lightsaber

Honestly would not shock me to see delta picking up everyone else orders and relying on the CEO to keep the supply chain going for a good little while

But as Lightsaber says, it will become an odd model with very bad economies of scale when it comes to maintenance and parts, and we have seen how long odd aircraft families last in Delta's hands, approx 10 years assuming we start counting from when they become the only significant operator. Probably wiser for DL to ask A and B to fight it all out again, chances are they would choose the 787 for a more sustainable and predictable maintenance experience.

Delta would be silly not to make A and B duke it out.

Heck, DL walked away from an A350 order, MD-90, and other aircraft orders. They never do the sunk cost falacy; if they made a bad decision and must switch directions, DL will change their strategy.

AirAsiaX having this level of issues, which isn't that surprising, means their viability should be questioned as should the A330NEO business case. No one expected the Chinese airlines to subsidize international traffic off domestic traffic to the level they have. For AirAsiaX, there is a question of the path forward.

They will certainly be a smaller airline. In my opinion they are already technically bankrupt. It is a question of if they can restructure their debts, including aircraft leases, enough to survive.

The A330NEO is very much the widebody analogy of the 717. It is dependent on the prior generation of aircraft for airframe economics of scale and another airframe to provide engine economics of scale.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

AirAsiaX having this level of issues, which isn't that surprising, means their viability should be questioned as should the A330NEO business case. No one expected the Chinese airlines to subsidize international traffic off domestic traffic to the level they have. For AirAsiaX, there is a question of the path forward.

I disagree with this. It isn't as though AirAsiaX purchased the planes and the CN3 suddenly changed strategy later. Capacity and fare dumping has been going on for years before, during and after AAX's order.

The only 2 options that explain it are that AAX got carried away and thought they could somehow change the market by out capacity dumping others or the more likely reason is that someone got their pockets lined in order to push through an order that made no sense.

dstblj52 wrote:

Antarius wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

AirAsiaX having this level of issues, which isn't that surprising, means their viability should be questioned as should the A330NEO business case. No one expected the Chinese airlines to subsidize international traffic off domestic traffic to the level they have. For AirAsiaX, there is a question of the path forward.

I disagree with this. It isn't as though AirAsiaX purchased the planes and the CN3 suddenly changed strategy later. Capacity and fare dumping has been going on for years before, during and after AAX's order.

The only 2 options that explain it are that AAX got carried away and thought they could somehow change the market by out capacity dumping others or the more likely reason is that someone got their pockets lined in order to push through an order that made no sense.

Or they bet that some of the weaker players in the market would die out and possibly overestimated the growth of domestic air travel in China and underestimated the growth of the Chinese railroads.

There are many reasons, I always thought a struggling concept buying so many aircraft was risky.

I never expected the realized risk of 2020.

Even Boeing's CMO shows a brutal outlook (seperate thread). There will be undercapitalized players leaving the market. Unfortunately for AirAsia, they were highly leveraged for growth.

Lightsaber

They actually found the insight of their issue years ago. I remember Fernades claiming something like "we have realised it's hard to make money in flights longer than 8-9 hours, so we'll focus on routes on that range maximum". He never stopped flirting with the idea of "back to Europe".

The long haul low cost model again with a big question mark

Am I reading this correctly or am I missing something or is their simply not enough detail???
Which creditor (particularly lessor) in their right mind would approve this.

AAX wants to take existing debt of RM63,500 million (US$15.3bn) ((which includes all crystallised capital commitments (such as future lease rentals and aircraft purchase commitments) and estimated compensation and/or penalties arising from early termination of contracts, agreements and/or arrangements

And convert it to an acknowledgement of debt of RM200 million (US$48m) - a haircut of 99.7%, which will carry an interest rate of 2% and only be repaid in years 3 to 5.

No conversion to equity (like say Norwegian), wipeout of equity (like Virgin Australia) or even an equity raising.
Instead a 10:1 consolidation (reverse split) which merely changes the share price.

Isn't every lessor just going to take back their plane.

jeffrey0032j wrote:

Doesn't help when the Chinese carriers offer "full service" Y class for as cheap as these LCCs. "Full service" is in brackets because for a lot of Asian destinations, Chinese airlines tend to offer quite a basic meal box instead of a proper meal.

And what's your point? A lot of airlines offer meal boxes in the region and they can be quite basic at times. You pay for what you get - if the price is cheaper than AAX with a meal and baggage allowance so be it.

When the price is on par or cheaper than AAX, seat better, with meals and luggage, it's really quite a no-brainer. Just like in the USA or Europe really.

Michael

Bloomberg article adds
"while raising 500 million ringgit in fresh funding, including equity and a government-guaranteed loan"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... operations

moa999 wrote:

Isn't every lessor just going to take back their plane.

And who are they going to lease it to? The leasing market is artificially inflated by all the state aid that keeps the legacies alive; this in turn keeps the banks alive that finance the lessors. The best hope for many lessors would be to mothball their assets for a few years. This would mirror the frozen state of the finance businesses where everybody is closing their eyes and praying to wake up one day as if nothing ever happened.

I'm not saying that a crash will happen but right now it's looking like a game of Jenga. Somebody is going to lose.

Capricorn wrote:

I don't think many airlines have figured out how to make the LCC concept work with WBs. DY wasn't successful as AAX wasn't, even before C19. I don't know how Scoot, Cebu Pacific or Lionair are performing on their WB routes, and so far the concept of a WB LCC seems only to have worked in Asia, at least partly. But with so many players now part of the market besides AAX, I am not sure if the market is not oversupplied. Furthermore, many countries in that region don't want to to open up without quarantine before a C19 vaccine is available (understandably so), which makes matters worse for airlines and with it AAX. I don't know how they can get out of this. Looks bleak for AAX, its employees as well as the A339.

In [twoid]5J[/twoid]'s case they pulled out of all of their long-haul routes except for Dubai and Australia so it seemed they were struggling hard. The A330s are now mainly used on trunk domestic and regional flights, and their A330neo fleet is planned for the same. As for Scoot, I'm not sure how mainline WB Scoot is doing, but NokScoot is dead: done in by intense competition and unprofitability, financial problems with one parent, and the pandemic being the final blow.

jeffrey0032j wrote:

dstblj52 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

All of AAX's orders are in question. The A321xLR will find new homes. Right now the interesting part is the dearth of widebody demand, in particular an odd model, the A330NEO.


The A330NEO is already the 717 of widebodies. When I go through the order book, I see only 125 to 135 actually happening plus AAX. It won't be the absolute end of the A330NEO immediately, but even if AAX survives, losing so much of the majority opperator is going to sting the economics of scale for support. Just like with the 717, this issue with AAX puts the A330NEO fate in Delta's hands.

It doesn't help when the engine vendor has a deep negative stockholder equity.

Lightsaber

Honestly would not shock me to see delta picking up everyone else orders and relying on the CEO to keep the supply chain going for a good little while

But as Lightsaber says, it will become an odd model with very bad economies of scale when it comes to maintenance and parts, and we have seen how long odd aircraft families last in Delta's hands, approx 10 years assuming we start counting from when they become the only significant operator. Probably wiser for DL to ask A and B to fight it all out again, chances are they would choose the 787 for a more sustainable and predictable maintenance experience.

Not completely.
Lightsaber mentioned the 717, which is the end-of-the-line of the DC-9 family and pretty much all have been retired; the economy of scale no longer exists.
While the A330neo if to the A330 what the 717 was to the MD-90, there is still a tremendous amount of A330CEOs that are flying out there; there are changes between the CEO and the neo (engines mainly), but the bulk of the aircraft remains the same. So, most parts needed to maintain the A330neo in a few year will still be produced in good numbers due to the A330CEO still flying.

WayexTDI wrote:

jeffrey0032j wrote:

dstblj52 wrote:

Honestly would not shock me to see delta picking up everyone else orders and relying on the CEO to keep the supply chain going for a good little while

But as Lightsaber says, it will become an odd model with very bad economies of scale when it comes to maintenance and parts, and we have seen how long odd aircraft families last in Delta's hands, approx 10 years assuming we start counting from when they become the only significant operator. Probably wiser for DL to ask A and B to fight it all out again, chances are they would choose the 787 for a more sustainable and predictable maintenance experience.

Not completely.
Lightsaber mentioned the 717, which is the end-of-the-line of the DC-9 family and pretty much all have been retired; the economy of scale no longer exists.
While the A330neo if to the A330 what the 717 was to the MD-90, there is still a tremendous amount of A330CEOs that are flying out there; there are changes between the CEO and the neo (engines mainly), but the bulk of the aircraft remains the same. So, most parts needed to maintain the A330neo in a few year will still be produced in good numbers due to the A330CEO still flying.

What parts are common to both aircraft? The A330ceo helping keep the neo alive would probably depend on exactly what parts they share.

moa999 wrote:

Am I reading this correctly or am I missing something or is their simply not enough detail???
Which creditor (particularly lessor) in their right mind would approve this.

AAX wants to take existing debt of RM63,500 million (US$15.3bn) ((which includes all crystallised capital commitments (such as future lease rentals and aircraft purchase commitments) and estimated compensation and/or penalties arising from early termination of contracts, agreements and/or arrangements

And convert it to an acknowledgement of debt of RM200 million (US$48m) - a haircut of 99.7%, which will carry an interest rate of 2% and only be repaid in years 3 to 5.

No conversion to equity (like say Norwegian), wipeout of equity (like Virgin Australia) or even an equity raising.
Instead a 10:1 consolidation (reverse split) which merely changes the share price.

Isn't every lessor just going to take back their plane.

No debtor will agree to this. That is the first I read about that level of haircut.

Debt: $3.38 billion usd
assets: $1.69 billion usd

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/bu ... a-13213524

When debt is twice assets, the company is done. When is the question.


Lightsaber

filipinoavgeek wrote:

WayexTDI wrote:

jeffrey0032j wrote:

But as Lightsaber says, it will become an odd model with very bad economies of scale when it comes to maintenance and parts, and we have seen how long odd aircraft families last in Delta's hands, approx 10 years assuming we start counting from when they become the only significant operator. Probably wiser for DL to ask A and B to fight it all out again, chances are they would choose the 787 for a more sustainable and predictable maintenance experience.

Not completely.
Lightsaber mentioned the 717, which is the end-of-the-line of the DC-9 family and pretty much all have been retired; the economy of scale no longer exists.
While the A330neo if to the A330 what the 717 was to the MD-90, there is still a tremendous amount of A330CEOs that are flying out there; there are changes between the CEO and the neo (engines mainly), but the bulk of the aircraft remains the same. So, most parts needed to maintain the A330neo in a few year will still be produced in good numbers due to the A330CEO still flying.

What parts are common to both aircraft? The A330ceo helping keep the neo alive would probably depend on exactly what parts they share.

Around 95% of the parts are common between both families (pages 22 and 26).
Can't find exactly which parts; bur since the engines, pylons and some slats are different, most "wear items" are most likely the same.
Keep in mind too that Airbus has done a great job re-using some parts between the A320Family and the A330/340 (and I'm sure it went onto the A350 as well).

Capricorn wrote:

I don't think many airlines have figured out how to make the LCC concept work with WBs. ....Looks bleak for AAX, its employees as well as the A339.

AAX has deployed the aircraft to effect regionally but has struggled to define itself acceptably in the long-haul market. Their product is not sufficiently competitive with plenty of discounted seats from premium carriers on the market and the cramped seating in AAX 333s doesn't work for long haul for regular sized people like me and I wouldn't want to do it again. On the last point, I'd beg to differ. Things may be bleak for AAX and it's employees but the A339 has plenty of future potential once we climb out of the present mess and Airbus should be able to navigate its way through AAX's difficulties.

eamondzhang wrote:

jeffrey0032j wrote:

Doesn't help when the Chinese carriers offer "full service" Y class for as cheap as these LCCs. "Full service" is in brackets because for a lot of Asian destinations, Chinese airlines tend to offer quite a basic meal box instead of a proper meal.

And what's your point? A lot of airlines offer meal boxes in the region and they can be quite basic at times. You pay for what you get - if the price is cheaper than AAX with a meal and baggage allowance so be it.

When the price is on par or cheaper than AAX, seat better, with meals and luggage, it's really quite a no-brainer. Just like in the USA or Europe really.

Michael

My point is AAX is under intense competition in the region.

filipinoavgeek wrote:

Capricorn wrote:

I don't think many airlines have figured out how to make the LCC concept work with WBs. DY wasn't successful as AAX wasn't, even before C19. I don't know how Scoot, Cebu Pacific or Lionair are performing on their WB routes, and so far the concept of a WB LCC seems only to have worked in Asia, at least partly. But with so many players now part of the market besides AAX, I am not sure if the market is not oversupplied. Furthermore, many countries in that region don't want to to open up without quarantine before a C19 vaccine is available (understandably so), which makes matters worse for airlines and with it AAX. I don't know how they can get out of this. Looks bleak for AAX, its employees as well as the A339.

In [twoid]5J[/twoid]'s case they pulled out of all of their long-haul routes except for Dubai and Australia so it seemed they were struggling hard. The A330s are now mainly used on trunk domestic and regional flights, and their A330neo fleet is planned for the same. As for Scoot, I'm not sure how mainline WB Scoot is doing, but NokScoot is dead: done in by intense competition and unprofitability, financial problems with one parent, and the pandemic being the final blow.

Scoot is also on life support, but they are part of the SIA group so the financial foundation is sound.

It should be noted that there are a lot of routes where small WBs make sense.
- Many routes are subject to frequency restrictions while still having high volume. 24x daily on a 737/A320 on SIN-TPE is just not going to happen yet due to policy reasons. If I count correctly there were 5 flights daily and 4 were packed WBs (2 x SQ A333, 1 x BR 77W, 1 x CI A333) and the 5th a Scoot A320.
- Long distance international road and rail freight is still very low - air freight plays a much bigger role in Asia and a lot of passenger flights carry lots of cargo. SQ is flying to lots of places in Asia at the moment with passengers planes, but only cargo and no passengers. You see 787-10s and A350-900s with cargo flight designations. The A321XLR won't do that job.
- A lot of routes are just beyond the range of A320/737. Examples are SIN-Japan, SIN-Korea, KUL-Korea, KUL-Japan, ASEAN to SYD/MEL/BNE/ADL, China/HKG-Australia, SIN-BOM/DEL and many more. These are all AAX routes. In Asia they are considered regional routes.

lightsaber wrote:

No debtor will agree to this. That is the first I read about that level of haircut.

Debt: $3.38 billion usd
assets: $1.69 billion usd

Yep. Think it's to do with the capitalisation of leases and future purchase commitments (ie. Airbus).

Still on those numbers $3380m to $48m is a 98.6% haircut.

I just can't see it being supported without equity being substantially wiped out.

AngMoh wrote:

filipinoavgeek wrote:

Capricorn wrote:

I don't think many airlines have figured out how to make the LCC concept work with WBs. DY wasn't successful as AAX wasn't, even before C19. I don't know how Scoot, Cebu Pacific or Lionair are performing on their WB routes, and so far the concept of a WB LCC seems only to have worked in Asia, at least partly. But with so many players now part of the market besides AAX, I am not sure if the market is not oversupplied. Furthermore, many countries in that region don't want to to open up without quarantine before a C19 vaccine is available (understandably so), which makes matters worse for airlines and with it AAX. I don't know how they can get out of this. Looks bleak for AAX, its employees as well as the A339.

In [twoid]5J[/twoid]'s case they pulled out of all of their long-haul routes except for Dubai and Australia so it seemed they were struggling hard. The A330s are now mainly used on trunk domestic and regional flights, and their A330neo fleet is planned for the same. As for Scoot, I'm not sure how mainline WB Scoot is doing, but NokScoot is dead: done in by intense competition and unprofitability, financial problems with one parent, and the pandemic being the final blow.

Scoot is also on life support, but they are part of the SIA group so the financial foundation is sound.

It should be noted that there are a lot of routes where small WBs make sense.
- Many routes are subject to frequency restrictions while still having high volume. 24x daily on a 737/A320 on SIN-TPE is just not going to happen yet due to policy reasons. If I count correctly there were 5 flights daily and 4 were packed WBs (2 x SQ A333, 1 x BR 77W, 1 x CI A333) and the 5th a Scoot A320.
- Long distance international road and rail freight is still very low - air freight plays a much bigger role in Asia and a lot of passenger flights carry lots of cargo. SQ is flying to lots of places in Asia at the moment with passengers planes, but only cargo and no passengers. You see 787-10s and A350-900s with cargo flight designations. The A321XLR won't do that job.
- A lot of routes are just beyond the range of A320/737. Examples are SIN-Japan, SIN-Korea, KUL-Korea, KUL-Japan, ASEAN to SYD/MEL/BNE/ADL, China/HKG-Australia, SIN-BOM/DEL and many more. These are all AAX routes. In Asia they are considered regional routes.

Those are valid reasons for WB service, not LCC WB service.

Lots of people here seeming to be pleased at a bleaker future for the A330neo......I'll pretend to be surprised.


Wishing all Air Asia Group employees the best at what's no doubt a very stressful time for them.

lightsaber wrote:

LAXintl wrote:

“To avoid liquidation and to allow the airline to fly again, the only option is for AirAsia X to undertake a group-wide debt and corporate restructuring and update its business model,” AirAsia X said. Given the current outlook, “the group will not be able to meet its immediate debt and other financial commitments.”

Wow. That is straight shooting. That is a reorganizational bankruptcy preamble. If I were holding an AirAsiaX lease, that would scare me.

LAXintl wrote:

Dont see AAX taking its backlog of 78 A330NEO orders, or 10 A350s. Big hit to Airbus

Agreed. I do not see AAX able to take any new aircraft for 3 years. Untangling the current mess will take years.

Lightsaber

Isn´t AirAsia(X) largely VFR traffic? That should rebound quite nicely once travel is back fully open.

best regards
Thomas

zkojq wrote:

Lots of people here seeming to be pleased at a bleaker future for the A330neo......I'll pretend to be surprised.
.

It's not being pleased, it's recognizing reality. Some of these orders were rubbish, but reality was suspended for a bit.

It's a great plane, but people celebrating success due to AAX type orders is akin to expecting that airline who wanted to buy 30 748i to start service being a real thing.

Someone got paid. There's no other logical explanation for a loss making airline to suddenly order an absurd number of wide-bodies; a number that comprises 30% of the order book.

AngMoh wrote:

filipinoavgeek wrote:

Capricorn wrote:

I don't think many airlines have figured out how to make the LCC concept work with WBs. DY wasn't successful as AAX wasn't, even before C19. I don't know how Scoot, Cebu Pacific or Lionair are performing on their WB routes, and so far the concept of a WB LCC seems only to have worked in Asia, at least partly. But with so many players now part of the market besides AAX, I am not sure if the market is not oversupplied. Furthermore, many countries in that region don't want to to open up without quarantine before a C19 vaccine is available (understandably so), which makes matters worse for airlines and with it AAX. I don't know how they can get out of this. Looks bleak for AAX, its employees as well as the A339.

In [twoid]5J[/twoid]'s case they pulled out of all of their long-haul routes except for Dubai and Australia so it seemed they were struggling hard. The A330s are now mainly used on trunk domestic and regional flights, and their A330neo fleet is planned for the same. As for Scoot, I'm not sure how mainline WB Scoot is doing, but NokScoot is dead: done in by intense competition and unprofitability, financial problems with one parent, and the pandemic being the final blow.

Scoot is also on life support, but they are part of the SIA group so the financial foundation is sound.

Scoot as a whole, or just the WB part of it? Remember that Scoot isn't solely a long-haul LCC anymore after they merged with Tigerair and got their A320s.

filipinoavgeek wrote:

AngMoh wrote:

filipinoavgeek wrote:

In [twoid]5J[/twoid]'s case they pulled out of all of their long-haul routes except for Dubai and Australia so it seemed they were struggling hard. The A330s are now mainly used on trunk domestic and regional flights, and their A330neo fleet is planned for the same. As for Scoot, I'm not sure how mainline WB Scoot is doing, but NokScoot is dead: done in by intense competition and unprofitability, financial problems with one parent, and the pandemic being the final blow.

Scoot is also on life support, but they are part of the SIA group so the financial foundation is sound.

Scoot as a whole, or just the WB part of it? Remember that Scoot isn't solely a long-haul LCC anymore after they merged with Tigerair and got their A320s.

Scoot as a whole. The fly very few NBs and very few WBs. This is their schedule and it is a mix of A320 and &89 (e.g. Perth, Nanjing)
https://www.flyscoot.com/en/announcemen ... -schedules

Honestly AirAsia is better off to focus on regional travel as opposed to trying long haul. D7 has always been a loss making venture (they're only been profitable in 2 of the 6 years since their IPO).

Better to cut their losses instead of risking D7 taking down the entire group.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... odel%C2%A0

Antarius wrote:

AngMoh wrote:

filipinoavgeek wrote:

In [twoid]5J[/twoid]'s case they pulled out of all of their long-haul routes except for Dubai and Australia so it seemed they were struggling hard. The A330s are now mainly used on trunk domestic and regional flights, and their A330neo fleet is planned for the same. As for Scoot, I'm not sure how mainline WB Scoot is doing, but NokScoot is dead: done in by intense competition and unprofitability, financial problems with one parent, and the pandemic being the final blow.

Scoot is also on life support, but they are part of the SIA group so the financial foundation is sound.

It should be noted that there are a lot of routes where small WBs make sense.
- Many routes are subject to frequency restrictions while still having high volume. 24x daily on a 737/A320 on SIN-TPE is just not going to happen yet due to policy reasons. If I count correctly there were 5 flights daily and 4 were packed WBs (2 x SQ A333, 1 x BR 77W, 1 x CI A333) and the 5th a Scoot A320.
- Long distance international road and rail freight is still very low - air freight plays a much bigger role in Asia and a lot of passenger flights carry lots of cargo. SQ is flying to lots of places in Asia at the moment with passengers planes, but only cargo and no passengers. You see 787-10s and A350-900s with cargo flight designations. The A321XLR won't do that job.
- A lot of routes are just beyond the range of A320/737. Examples are SIN-Japan, SIN-Korea, KUL-Korea, KUL-Japan, ASEAN to SYD/MEL/BNE/ADL, China/HKG-Australia, SIN-BOM/DEL and many more. These are all AAX routes. In Asia they are considered regional routes.

Those are valid reasons for WB service, not LCC WB service.

There are a hell of a lot of passengers targeting low cost long distance flights, especially workers, maids etc. I am pretty sure the Cebu Pacific A333 Ultra High Density cattle cars are packed with workers flying between the Philippines and Middle East. Their bosses won't pay Emirates.

When Jet started it's final death spiral it had a more surmountable debt mountain, a big home market, less international flying as a percent, and it happened in far better economic conditions. The spiral took almost a year.

Secured debt on delivered aircraft, be it leases or financing will have the planes returned. An airline that is still making lease payments but is behind might get some grace. Someone stiffing 4+ months of payments will have the security taken, there is a fear of inadequate maintenance may compromise the residual value.

Planes not yet delivered will be cancelled.

Has there been any case of an airline getting out of such a mountain of trouble and avoiding bankruptcy?

AngMoh wrote:

Antarius wrote:

AngMoh wrote:

Scoot is also on life support, but they are part of the SIA group so the financial foundation is sound.

It should be noted that there are a lot of routes where small WBs make sense.
- Many routes are subject to frequency restrictions while still having high volume. 24x daily on a 737/A320 on SIN-TPE is just not going to happen yet due to policy reasons. If I count correctly there were 5 flights daily and 4 were packed WBs (2 x SQ A333, 1 x BR 77W, 1 x CI A333) and the 5th a Scoot A320.
- Long distance international road and rail freight is still very low - air freight plays a much bigger role in Asia and a lot of passenger flights carry lots of cargo. SQ is flying to lots of places in Asia at the moment with passengers planes, but only cargo and no passengers. You see 787-10s and A350-900s with cargo flight designations. The A321XLR won't do that job.
- A lot of routes are just beyond the range of A320/737. Examples are SIN-Japan, SIN-Korea, KUL-Korea, KUL-Japan, ASEAN to SYD/MEL/BNE/ADL, China/HKG-Australia, SIN-BOM/DEL and many more. These are all AAX routes. In Asia they are considered regional routes.

Those are valid reasons for WB service, not LCC WB service.

There are a hell of a lot of passengers targeting low cost long distance flights, especially workers, maids etc. I am pretty sure the Cebu Pacific A333 Ultra High Density cattle cars are packed with workers flying between the Philippines and Middle East. Their bosses won't pay Emirates.

From what I remember, Emirates and other airlines from the region (like Qatar, Etihad, Saudia and others) actually do get a major share of the migrant worker market (along with the VFR market that comes along with it). It's one of the main reasons why 5J pulled out of the Middle East apart from Dubai and why PR still struggles in the region. Add to the fact that many Filipinos and visitors use Emirates as a connector to elsewhere in the world, and you can see why 5J struggled in the market.