Speedy752 wrote:I think the customer base the A330neo has shouldered an outsized impact from the pandemic. With few exceptions these are small operators with only a few examples per, and now these airlines are bankrupt or at the very least in no position to take new aircraft. As a lessor I can’t imagine with this default risk they would take on a new plane where a 787/a350 would be much easier to find a home for, or where the attractiveness of continuing to lease current aircraft wouldn’t win out. We already see planes being repainted twice before entering service, what appear to be last minute deals struck, I think 100 deliveries looks optimistic at this point.
I agree with you, but I want to rephrase.
The pandemic took out the #1 buyer of the A330NEO, an aircraft that had too few sales as is. Now, the future hope of the A330NEO was all those small operators you note and for the most part, they are down for the count and need to avoid acquiring new widebodies for a while and seriously see if the A321xLR is good enough to cut costs. (I'm serious.) So the A330NEO took a triple hit one the largest buyer (this thread) really being tenuous on survival. They might or might not survive which won't have a material impact on the A330NEO at this point either way.
A fourth issue is the pause the pandemic created combined with the 787 drop in production. Suddenly Boeing is going to be a much more competitive purchase decision. I bet Boeing is scrambling to better support small purchases with the complicated 787 (software, support team) to get in their with 789 and possibly 788 sales.
Airbus/RR were already having to Sell A330NEOs cheap. With the 787 sales teams also out there, I cannot imagine any new sale will be easy. The only hope for avoiding a "last call" on the A330NEO is short term sales. At this time Airbus must be really regretting not doing an A338F and in my opinion it is too late to offer it to ride out the widebody slump we are in (it takes more years to certify an aircraft post MAX, in my opinion). So literally the only hope for the A339 is DL.
Yet DL is amicable to cheap enough A359s and Airbus really needs to look to the future and solidify new orders for that airframe/engine. So... in my opinion Airbus executives will really have to earn their pay and bonus and decide if they offer A339s to Airbus at a loss to try and save the A330NEO (but can they?) or bolter up the A350 with a top off sale to DL at a small profit, but a discount from before (my opinion on pricing).
JayinKitsap wrote:
What is the probable cost for a A339 to DL, how does this compare to the A359? There would be points where DL would buy used 332 and 333's or used 359's instead of more new A339's. Airbus may need a lot of sweetener or buy back clauses to get DL to order more A339's.
We need to go back to the used prices.
The LATAM A359s we agreed above are probably at the low end of the price range (if not setting a new low as DL is a nasty negotiator, with a smile):
viewtopic.php?t=1460947A330-900 - $90.5 - 110.0M, $550-820,000
A350-900 - $77.0 - 149.0M, $450-1,030,000You really cannot compete with mid 70s M pricing with the A359. The variable cost is just too low.
Unfortunately for DL and Airbus, the 787 costs will push down A330NEO pricing:
B787-8 - $47.8 - 100.5M, $290-650,000
B787-9 - $72.5 - 140.0M, $410-940,000Ok, the top of the 789 is going to be poor negotiated purchases. The top of the 788 is about to drop below $100 million. Rhoo Rhoo. That will put down A339 values as that will be potential competition (e.g., AA bought 788s supposedly for really good pricing).
With Delta flying some international less than daily, they have adopted a strategy that allows more granular purchasing of aircraft. The issue is the A338 doesn't cost much less per flight than the A339. That means the 789 is going to be too competitive in ranges it flies (obviously the A338 has more range). I do not see DL flying ULH with the A338.
DL is in the drivers seat and needs enough new ordres. They'll either buy more A339 at a steep discount. I wouldn't rule out Boeing and even possibly GE coming in with a killer 787 deal in quantity either. With an airline as large as DL and as efficient at incorporating multiple subfleets, I won't rule anything out. Oh, I think DL is overall on a fleet simplification, but I also believe their mangagement is canny in extracting the most from every negotiation and Boeing could come in. I would think only say a 25% probability, but that isn't zero.
DL should be paying less than the top of the A339 market, so less than $110 M. It could be less than $100M, I don't know and am just speculating. But the A338? That will have less value as a freight conversion. As much as I admire DL using up airframe value to almost the economic end, I think this pandemic has them thinking of exit strategies if they mis-buy. (Obviously, just my opinion.)
But with used A359 pricing being less than new A330NEO pricing, DL should negotiate hard and survey that market first.
What is sad is AirAsiaX has gone from the drivers seat on the A330NEO to irrelevant. It is bad when the government has to step in and prevent creditors from suing for their property. This is going to make lending to the whole nation under a new set of rules in my opinion. This actually, in my opinion, should reduce the chance of an AirAsiaX revival.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 021-06-18/The creditors are having to suck up 6 months of no payments due to... a government changing the rules. It is almost as if they never read any books by Bernstein (Trade a marvelous exchange or others) which all point out consistent known rules of law stimulate business activity in a country. So that silly move alone makes me *far* more bearish on AirAsiaX than I would be.
The international community needs to step in and allow the seizure of AirAsiaX aircraft in bulk. The whole system has enough trouble as is without one country trying to reset the rules.
Lightsaber
