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CFM565A1
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Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Fri Jun 28, 2019 3:20 am

rikkus67 wrote:
CFM565A1 wrote:
Once again the jealous Tealaid people of the world are whining. They're going "oh boo hoo the competition is gone now" but then would be the ones celebrating if Onex bought Transat or Porter and merged them into WS or WEN. :lol: :roll:


Less to do with Tealaid, and more to do with the decreased competition. Competition-wise, it would be a no-brainer that an Onex deal would make much better sense to the Canadian traveller.

But hey, if everyone is OK with the possibility of "Taco Bell being the only restaurant left"... go ahead and celebrate.


Nah,

As stated, Transat has a very limited domestic network in Canada. It's really Teal vs Red in that department with a little Martian Slime Green. Transat opens up more leisure destination slots that AC and WS couldn't secure. There is not a measurable decrease in competition if you look at how diverse YYZ and YUL are with other carriers (see YYZ T3); they are where TS does most of their flying. You cannot use YYC or those smaller irrelevant markets as proof of lack of competition... too small a sample size for intl traffic that TS runs.
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berari
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Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Fri Jun 28, 2019 6:05 am

So, here is what I speculate:
- AC to keep the companies separate, at least for a specified period
- TS to start shutting down service to European destinations
- TS to focus on sun and vacation destinations
- TS vacation operations to be rebranded or folded into Air Canada Vacations [I think this is what TS offers the most to AC]
- Either a third brand (AC, Rouge, AC Vacations) is maintained or Rouge will start flying all AC Vacations related flights pending labour renegotiations
- Whatever TS aircraft can be integrated into AC will be integrated, well, that's just 4 A333s. If AC intends to keep Rouge operate single aisle Airbii, then it will have the TS A321s to work with. The rest is good to toss out, unless Rouge also takes the A332s.
 
SCQ83
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Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Fri Jun 28, 2019 6:32 am

I have never been a fan of Air Transat. It screams "1990 holiday flight".

Maybe they should change the name to Air Quebec and focus on YUL. Something like Ryanair and Lauda (Austria/Germany). Although I know that would be hard because of politics, it would be interesting they keep two different products out of YUL and YYZ.
 
SwissCanuck
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Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Fri Jun 28, 2019 7:39 am

wrongwayup wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
So that leaves Canada with two major players, Air Canada and WestJet?


Well, on sun routes, there's still three with Sunwing. To Europe, I'd argue not much as changed as since Zoom's demise, it's been an AC/TS duopoly, while now it'll still be a duopoly, but WS will be the 2nd Canadian player. Who knows, maybe at some point Sunwing will get into the summer transatlantic game. If the MAX ever flies again, they could ETOPS their MAXes and go transatlantic from YYZ and points east without the addition of a new aircraft type. As well, WG are a strong 3rd in the sun market at YUL and arguably tops at YQB vs TS on sun routes and vs nonexistent WS.

Also on sun routes, there may be a 4th still with Flair as they finally seem to be getting their house in order and learned some big lessons from last winter.


Transatlantic is not a duopoly at all. I count no less than 12 European airlines flying to YYZ and 11 to YUL, as an example.


That number drops significantly if you take joint ventures into account .
 
Aircellist
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Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Fri Jun 28, 2019 12:41 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
I have never been a fan of Air Transat. It screams "1990 holiday flight".

Maybe they should change the name to Air Quebec and focus on YUL. Something like Ryanair and Lauda (Austria/Germany). Although I know that would be hard because of politics, it would be interesting they keep two different products out of YUL and YYZ.


The irony of what you suggest is that TS was indeed founded by former members of Quebecair…
"When I find out I was wrong, I change my mind. What do you do?" -attributed to John Maynard Keynes
 
Texas77
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Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Fri Jun 28, 2019 4:16 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
I have never been a fan of Air Transat. It screams "1990 holiday flight".

Maybe they should change the name to Air Quebec and focus on YUL. Something like Ryanair and Lauda (Austria/Germany). Although I know that would be hard because of politics, it would be interesting they keep two different products out of YUL and YYZ.


1990 holiday flight. love it!
 
SCQ83
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Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Fri Jun 28, 2019 5:25 pm

Aircellist wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
I have never been a fan of Air Transat. It screams "1990 holiday flight".

Maybe they should change the name to Air Quebec and focus on YUL. Something like Ryanair and Lauda (Austria/Germany). Although I know that would be hard because of politics, it would be interesting they keep two different products out of YUL and YYZ.


The irony of what you suggest is that TS was indeed founded by former members of Quebecair…


I had no idea!

Air Quebec sounds chic. Maybe Air Canada YYZ/YVR could become something like BA/LHR and Air Quebec/YUL something like Aer Lingus/DUB. Just an armchair thought.
 
max999
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Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:35 am

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... high-fares

The Guardian: Canadians are paying sky-high prices for flights – and merger could make it worse

Air Canada’s planned C$520m purchase of Air Transat could be bad news for passengers who already pay double what Americans do

--------

Canadian airlines are tough to threaten, because the federal government works hard to keep foreign competitors at bay, says Geloso. Loosening restrictions on foreign airline ownership or operation could drive down domestic airline prices while enabling the carrier to operate a greater network of feeder routes to overseas destinations.

--------

Furthermore, the Canadian government owns the majority of the country’s airports, and leases them to local airport authorities. Most regional markets have only one airport, which keeps the number of available gates low. And fewer gates means higher prices, the cost of which gets passed on to consumers.

“All of these factors amount to massive protections for any incumbent firm on the Canadian market,” says Geloso. “[For a monopoly], they’re the perfect ingredients.”
All the things I really like to do are either immoral, illegal, or fattening.
 
 
SpaceshipDC10
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Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:15 pm

Rejected Transat bidder Group Mach trying to buy enough shares to block Air Canada takeover

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/group- ... -1.5237204


In the proxy circular sent to its shareholders for the Aug. 23 vote, Transat A.T. raised doubts about the real estate group's ability to meet its commitments, particularly in terms of financing.

While "Group Mach CEO Vincent Chiara says that it believes Air Canada under-values Transat, that its sale process to Air Canada was flawed and that Air Canada's offer creates uncertainty for Transat employees and its head office."
 
queb
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Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:57 pm

SpaceshipDC10 wrote:
Rejected Transat bidder Group Mach trying to buy enough shares to block Air Canada takeover

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/group- ... -1.5237204


In the proxy circular sent to its shareholders for the Aug. 23 vote, Transat A.T. raised doubts about the real estate group's ability to meet its commitments, particularly in terms of financing.

While "Group Mach CEO Vincent Chiara says that it believes Air Canada under-values Transat, that its sale process to Air Canada was flawed and that Air Canada's offer creates uncertainty for Transat employees and its head office."


Many thinks Onex is behind the Group Mach (Mach for the hotel business and Onex for the airline)

https://www.wingsoverquebec.com/?p=8774
 
robsaw
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Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Wed Aug 07, 2019 4:40 pm

queb wrote:
SpaceshipDC10 wrote:
Rejected Transat bidder Group Mach trying to buy enough shares to block Air Canada takeover

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/group- ... -1.5237204


In the proxy circular sent to its shareholders for the Aug. 23 vote, Transat A.T. raised doubts about the real estate group's ability to meet its commitments, particularly in terms of financing.

While "Group Mach CEO Vincent Chiara says that it believes Air Canada under-values Transat, that its sale process to Air Canada was flawed and that Air Canada's offer creates uncertainty for Transat employees and its head office."


Many thinks Onex is behind the Group Mach (Mach for the hotel business and Onex for the airline)

https://www.wingsoverquebec.com/?p=8774


People are free to "think" what they want but credibility of such an opinion is lacking because - If Onex is involved, and wants only the Air Transat piece, and there is a committed financial obligation, and unconditional side-deal, and such an agreement between Onex and Group Mach is undisclosed that would be rather risky as Onex, given their pending ownership of WestJet, would still be subject to a Competition Bureau ruling on the acquisition.
 
codyul
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Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:27 am

YUL PNC :weightlifter:
 
westaust
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Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:26 pm

There are rumours that WestJet and Air France are both interested to submit a bid for Air Transat, no details if it's separate bids or together as there is a maximum ownership of 49% by foreign companies for airlines in Canada, or if such plans are still of interest following AC increased offer.

Article in french: https://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2019/08/12/ ... ar-transat
 
TObound
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Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:30 pm

westaust wrote:
There are rumours that WestJet and Air France are both interested to submit a bid for Air Transat, no details if it's separate bids or together as there is a maximum ownership of 49% by foreign companies for airlines in Canada, or if such plans are still of interest following AC increased offer.

Article in french: https://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2019/08/12/ ... ar-transat


That's a very interesting play. Maybe they should get Delta involved too. WS but surely moving into the AFKL-DL-VS and SkyTeam orbit.
 
queb
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Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:38 pm

westaust wrote:
There are rumours that WestJet and Air France are both interested to submit a bid for Air Transat, no details if it's separate bids or together as there is a maximum ownership of 49% by foreign companies for airlines in Canada, or if such plans are still of interest following AC increased offer.

Article in french: https://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2019/08/12/ ... ar-transat


Pierre-Karl Péladeau (Quebecor CEO who own the news channel TVA in the previous post ;) ) would also be involved in talks with Air France and Westjet.

in french: https://www.lapresse.ca/affaires/entrep ... estjet.php
 
jimbo737
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Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:18 pm

The AC proposal still needs to wind its way through the Competition Bureau and the politicos.....in an election year.

It’s far from a slam dunk given the significant impact such a merger would have on the competitive landscape in Canada and in YUL / Quebec in particular.

The only thing keeping fares reasonable in YUL and on the TATL was the presence of Transat in the marketplace, who could make it work because even they had a modest amount of domestic feed available to them, which is vital for success outside the best 22 weeks of the year.

No airline outside Canada has access to Cdn domestic feed. US airlines have learned that with very rare exceptions, if it doesn’t touch a hub, they don’t fly it, meaning that outside MIA, all US flying to the sun is one stop vs non stop available to Cdn domiciled carriers.

AC has been very aggressive defending the Quebec market from any profit driven domestic interlopers, to the point that WJ discontinued YUL - FLL, even with 90%+ l/f’s according to US DoT stats.

Expecting any new entrant, all of which are based west of Winnipeg, and 2 of which remain paper airlines, to be able to do what WJ has been unable to do over the last 20 years, even with a significant lower cost base than AC, and a fleet of 160+ aircraft, is absurd.

AC further tying up YUL further consolidates an already dominant position in the market, something I suspect will trouble the Bureau.

A WS / AF / Skyteam purchase of Transat, with each taking the bits and pieces that make sense to each of them makes a theoretical degree of sense, provided there’s a realistic expectation of what happens from a head office perspective.

I can’t see WS being interested in any of the Airbus wide bodies.

It would certainly ensure a better competitive landscape than the alternative of AC continuing its strategy of reducing consumer choice / macro capacity to drive yields and profits higher.

It’s a nice offering price, but if it isn’t approved by the Bureau, it’s a moot point.

It’ll be interesting to watch unfold.
 
Dominion301
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Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:25 pm

Step 1 complete. TS shareholders approve the takeover: https://www.news957.com/business/2019/0 ... mpetition/
 
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767333ER
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Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:54 pm

jimbo737 wrote:
The AC proposal still needs to wind its way through the Competition Bureau and the politicos.....in an election year.

It’s far from a slam dunk given the significant impact such a merger would have on the competitive landscape in Canada and in YUL / Quebec in particular.

The only thing keeping fares reasonable in YUL and on the TATL was the presence of Transat in the marketplace, who could make it work because even they had a modest amount of domestic feed available to them, which is vital for success outside the best 22 weeks of the year.

No airline outside Canada has access to Cdn domestic feed. US airlines have learned that with very rare exceptions, if it doesn’t touch a hub, they don’t fly it, meaning that outside MIA, all US flying to the sun is one stop vs non stop available to Cdn domiciled carriers.

AC has been very aggressive defending the Quebec market from any profit driven domestic interlopers, to the point that WJ discontinued YUL - FLL, even with 90%+ l/f’s according to US DoT stats.

Expecting any new entrant, all of which are based west of Winnipeg, and 2 of which remain paper airlines, to be able to do what WJ has been unable to do over the last 20 years, even with a significant lower cost base than AC, and a fleet of 160+ aircraft, is absurd.

AC further tying up YUL further consolidates an already dominant position in the market, something I suspect will trouble the Bureau.

A WS / AF / Skyteam purchase of Transat, with each taking the bits and pieces that make sense to each of them makes a theoretical degree of sense, provided there’s a realistic expectation of what happens from a head office perspective.

I can’t see WS being interested in any of the Airbus wide bodies.

It would certainly ensure a better competitive landscape than the alternative of AC continuing its strategy of reducing consumer choice / macro capacity to drive yields and profits higher.

It’s a nice offering price, but if it isn’t approved by the Bureau, it’s a moot point.

It’ll be interesting to watch unfold.

Sour green grapes right here folks. ^^

The Quebec guys make the Alberta guys mad once again even though they’re just different sides of the same coin
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jimbo737
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Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:44 pm

AC can offer $50 a share if they want and get Transat’s shareholders approval of the same but it means nothing until the regulators have had their say and have laid out the terms and conditions of the merger.

It’s an election year. It may take a while. There’s no urgency as Transat is very much a going concern.

Given the significant impact the merger will have on the competitive landscape within Canada when it comes to domestic TATL competition, especially outside typical gateway markets, not to mention the virtual eradication of competition on n/s options for sun flying from Quebec and a serious reduction in consumer choice elsewhere in Canada, It is unlikely the deal will go ahead without some pretty significant undertakings and restrictions demanded by the regulators.

It remains to be seen whether such undertakings would be deemed palatable by AC. Until we see more clarity on this, it’s hard to get particularly excited about the proposed deal.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:08 pm

jimbo737 wrote:
AC can offer $50 a share if they want and get Transat’s shareholders approval of the same but it means nothing until the regulators have had their say and have laid out the terms and conditions of the merger.

It’s an election year. It may take a while. There’s no urgency as Transat is very much a going concern.

Given the significant impact the merger will have on the competitive landscape within Canada when it comes to domestic TATL competition, especially outside typical gateway markets, not to mention the virtual eradication of competition on n/s options for sun flying from Quebec and a serious reduction in consumer choice elsewhere in Canada, It is unlikely the deal will go ahead without some pretty significant undertakings and restrictions demanded by the regulators.

It remains to be seen whether such undertakings would be deemed palatable by AC. Until we see more clarity on this, it’s hard to get particularly excited about the proposed deal.


Never heard of "domestic TATL competition". Whatever it is, it's irrelevant to Competition Bureau's considerations. Their job is to look at competition in the market writ large, not how many "Canadian" airlines Canadians can choose from on routes that might have foreign alternatives.

Either way, putting too much faith in CB's influence. Canadian aviation isn't like other sectors CB looks at. They're longstanding proponents of Open Skies, yet Canada still has one of the the most restrictive approaches to international competition in the developed world. There is far higher level of corporate influence/regulatory capture in Canadian aviation than in other sectors (ask the pilots here about the revised flight duty rules). I expect that CB's review will amount to little more than checking the procedural box. They will offer recommendations. Those recommendations will, more likely than not, be ignored.

In the unlikely event that it becomes an election issue, the argument in favour has already written itself. It'll be an emotive appeal to "save (CA/QC) jobs", as opposed to less tangible issues like prices (nobody knows how much they will go up, and everyone likes thinking they're charitable enough to pay a "little" more to save someone's job when they can't see the price tag) or competition, notwithstanding the fact that those jobs will go in the weeks/months that follow regardless.
 
jimbo737
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Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:13 am

As expected, Air Canada's shareholder-approved deal to buy Transat A.T. will undergo a 250-day public interest assessment.

As I’ve been suggesting, this deal is by no means a slam dunk.

It might very well get approved with various conditions and undertakings, but the competitive cost of doing so might not be worth it to AC.

No matter what happens, I suspect AC will know more about what makes TS tick than TS knows itself.

Perhaps that’s the ultimate goal. It wouldn’t be the first time AC has looked to acquire / do deals with domestic competitors and walked away after taking a a good hard stare under the kimono.
 
jmt18325
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Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:36 am

This merger really seems to scare Westjet.
 
jimbo737
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Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:01 pm

A 250 day (!) consultative period, and then the inevitable numerous and likely tardy “final reports” thereafter authored by various ministerial / parliamentary committees and agencies, obviously including the Competition Bureau, would strongly indicate the deal seems to scare the regulators and the folks in the high castles in Ottawa.

One can’t go more than a couple of days in Canada these days without a major media outlet writing another story on an airline in Canada somehow “screwing” the consumer.

I’m not sure what the end game is for some of these journalists, other than typical leftie, “more government regulation and oversight is required” solution.

Most of the media stories are, IMO, nonsense, but perception is reality and the airline file, and the supposed abuse of the Canadian consumer by airlines is incredibly top of mind in Canada, far more so than say, the US and is an easy “motherhood and apple pie” issue to latch on to. You can’t go wrong beating up on the airlines in Canada if you’re a politician especially in an election year and in the critical first year after an election.

I’d wager there is zero chance of the deal going ahead without a number of onerous (at least to some), conditions and undertakings, as was the case in the last large “merger” 20 years ago.

In that instance, CP couldn’t even make their next payroll so there was a massive sense of urgency to get things done and protect jobs. There’s no such urgency today.

What will the conditions look like?

I could suggest all kinds of things to mitigate the impact of further industry concentration that will certainly be demanded by various camps, some of which will definitely be implemented and some not.

AC will have to determine if the cost of the deal and conditions demanded by the various regulators / govt agencies to approve it make any sense to them.

I would imagine they’ll be some very interesting discussions down the road amongst both the obvious players and perhaps some less obvious players.

If I were a Transat shareholder, I would be be very wary of the old adage that “pigs get fed and hogs get slaughtered”.

I’d take the money and run. Sell now as there is no guarantee the current deal will be approved by all parties and if so, any subsequent deal that meets gov’t approvals could quite easily result in a considerable “close back and sides” haircut on the current offering price.
 
beechnut
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Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:59 pm

Sorry, in French only:

https://www.lapresse.ca/affaires/202003 ... canada.php

Summary: Competition bureau says that the merger would eliminate or reduce competition for air travel and vacation packages. However the report has no legal bearing on the merger. Transport Canada makes the final decision based on several reports.

Apart from this report one wonders what impact the COVID-19 crisis will have on the merger since shares of Transat are now much lower than AC's offer.

Beech
 
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Polot
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Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:06 pm

beechnut wrote:

Apart from this report one wonders what impact the COVID-19 crisis will have on the merger since shares of Transat are now much lower than AC's offer.

That’s pretty common, or else the shareholders of the company being acquired would not agree to the sale. The issue is AC may now feel they are overpaying for Air Transat considering the current conditions.
 
EChid
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Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:24 pm

beechnut wrote:
Sorry, in French only:

https://www.lapresse.ca/affaires/202003 ... canada.php

Summary: Competition bureau says that the merger would eliminate or reduce competition for air travel and vacation packages. However the report has no legal bearing on the merger. Transport Canada makes the final decision based on several reports.

Beech

I'm glad it's been stated officially, though. Everyone in the know on this potential merger has known how uncompetitive the landscape, especially out of Montreal and Quebec City, already is. It would be a lot bleaker without competition from Air Transat.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:43 pm

Polot wrote:
beechnut wrote:

Apart from this report one wonders what impact the COVID-19 crisis will have on the merger since shares of Transat are now much lower than AC's offer.

That’s pretty common, or else the shareholders of the company being acquired would not agree to the sale.


No, when a deal is announced shares are typically bid up pretty close to the acquirer's price if there's confidence a sale will go thru.

You may be talking about the original offer premium, where the acquirer needs to offer XX% above previous trading to convince sellers they're getting value. We are months and months past that.

The big spread between current trading price and AC's offer suggests a lot of money (market-makers, institutional investors) don't think the deal will go thru as structured.
 
rampbro
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Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:14 pm

83 different routes impacted. Wouldn't that be like...all of them?
 
SpaceshipDC10
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Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:21 pm

rampbro wrote:
83 different routes impacted.


Of which 49 transatlantic markets and 34 sun destinations.


If, out of sheer speculation, the merger gets refused, what would happen to Transat? And if they fail, what are the chances of seeing a new entrant on parts where TS used to operate?
 
SnowBros
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Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:10 am

It is also a question of how long this crisis will last and if AC will have enough cash, credit available to buy
 
onwFan
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Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:43 am

As if fares to/from and within Canada aren't already crazy enough - how AC can be allowed to swallow yet another Canadian carrier, I will never understand!
 
whywhytee
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Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:51 am

If the merger does go ahead, would this be an opportunity for WestJet to try and build up some presence at YUL and YFB? I know their last attempt at YUL failed, but maybe after losing an airline there will be more space for competition.
 
tphuang
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Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:35 am

whywhytee wrote:
If the merger does go ahead, would this be an opportunity for WestJet to try and build up some presence at YUL and YFB? I know their last attempt at YUL failed, but maybe after losing an airline there will be more space for competition.

I don't see how it would be easier to go into an even more dominated hub. WestJet would need to lose a lot of money to show any progress there.
 
beechnut
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Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:43 pm

Quebecers are also sensitive to names that are unilingual for domestic carriers. Air Transat and Air Canada both work in both official languages. It was the reason that Trans-Canada Airlines changed its name to Air Canada back in the mid-60s. "WestJet" sounds too much like a foreign carrier to many in Québec. Perhaps Onex will figure out a new brand-name that works in both languages. Maybe revive the Nordair brand although that probably belongs to Air Canada via the Canadian merger.

Beech
 
pictues1981
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Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:31 pm

Well I would say the competition worries may be mute now, if the deal doesn't go through you will see Air Transit possibly goto Bankruptcy, depending on the reasons for Transat being put up for sale however I don't think you will see many vacation companies like Air Transat survive standalone if this pandemic lasts much longer which by most reports I see the rules most likely will not be eased until summer then there is the 12 to 18 months after to rebuild confidence to travel again. So really it is either let Air Canada buy Transat and the name stays and less "competition" but still have the jobs or not let Air Canada buy and more likely the same result however more job losses and Air Canada just expands Rouge, so possibly the job loss being negated however I see less competition either way
 
whywhytee
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Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:38 pm

I wonder how sunwing is doing? Will they survive COVID19?
 
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aemoreira1981
Posts: 3778
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:17 am

Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:53 pm

One way or the other, I see less competition, either from the purchase being completed, or the collapse of Transat A.T., which needs this to go through for the brand to survive. TS plans to ground all flights after Wednesday's flying programme is complete...but I would not be surprised if they remain grounded for good.
 
Thenoflyzone
Posts: 3099
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2001 4:42 am

Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:00 pm

Link to the official competition bureau report:

https://www.competitionbureau.gc.ca/eic ... 04522.html

aemoreira1981 wrote:
or the collapse of Transat A.T., which needs this to go through for the brand to survive..


Before COVID-19, that was by no means a certainty.

In the report, they state that a financial expert reviewed Transat's financials and expected cost-reduction and margin-improvement initiatives and determined that TS is solvent and unlikely to exit the relevant markets in the near term, if the merger doesn't happen.

The Bureau also found that no single carrier or combination of competitors is poised to replace Transat's presence in the markets of concern or its offerings to Canadian travelers.

Let's see what Marc Garneau will do with this info.
us Air Traffic Controllers have a good record, we haven't left one up there yet !!
 
jimbo737
Posts: 561
Joined: Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:18 am

Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:31 pm

Having read the report, and noting that very little in it comes as a surprise, only an extreme optimist could conclude that this merger transaction will be permitted without some very significant, to the point of painful, undertakings.

Said undertakings, added to a very ugly outlook for AC and it’s current employee groups over the next couple of years may make the transaction more trouble than its worth for AC, and anyone else who might have been interested in the acquisition.

The TS crowd need this deal desperately. It is understandable why they are so hopeful it will occur, and esp at $18, double today’s market value.
 
skipness1E
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Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:59 pm

Given the situation today, it would make more sense for Air Canada to simply walk away. They're going to be in no fit state to merge Air Transat into Rouge to combine a larger leisure carrier. They're going to be taking an axe to both Rouge and mainline for the medium term, this Northern summer is a write off, it's a battle for survival. Circumstances have changed beyond all recognition, any sense this merger made last years isn't there anymore.
Transat may well collapse of it's own accord without any need for Air Canada to do anything. We're not going to bounce nack towards BAU anytime in 2020 and even 2021 might be a huge struggle. It seems an insane idea to try and *add* to your fleet and staffing levels given that COVID19 has put the whole industry on death watch. And no, I'm not over egging this. Consumer confidence doesn't do well in an economy likely to see such a huge drop, actually collapse in GDP. Air Canada is going to be way smaller when it emerges, this merger no longer makes any sense.
 
HVNandrew
Posts: 567
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 1:05 am

Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:01 pm

Had the current crisis not transpired, I wonder if Transport Canada might have proposed some sort of divestiture (routes/planes/infrastructure) in the Montreal market, which could have been acquired/operated by a startup à la the proposed DC Air. Given the current environment I doubt there would be any eager candidates, but a month ago it may have been a way to maintain a competitive environment in the area.
 
beechnut
Posts: 956
Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2004 12:27 am

Re: Air Canada and Transat A.T. Inc. Conclude Amended Transaction for Combination of the Two Companies

Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:46 pm

skipness1E wrote:
Given the situation today, it would make more sense for Air Canada to simply walk away. They're going to be in no fit state to merge Air Transat into Rouge to combine a larger leisure carrier. They're going to be taking an axe to both Rouge and mainline for the medium term, this Northern summer is a write off, it's a battle for survival. Circumstances have changed beyond all recognition, any sense this merger made last years isn't there anymore.
Transat may well collapse of it's own accord without any need for Air Canada to do anything. We're not going to bounce nack towards BAU anytime in 2020 and even 2021 might be a huge struggle. It seems an insane idea to try and *add* to your fleet and staffing levels given that COVID19 has put the whole industry on death watch. And no, I'm not over egging this. Consumer confidence doesn't do well in an economy likely to see such a huge drop, actually collapse in GDP. Air Canada is going to be way smaller when it emerges, this merger no longer makes any sense.


I think this is highly possible. Air Canada can then look at picking up some key Transat assets at bargain prices. I'm thinking especially of its 321LRs which would be great for a thinner transatlantic market. It could then cancel the balance of its MAX order (I'm sure they have a good case for cancellation of undelivered aircraft due to the more than 1-year delay in RTS). It would also buy them some protection if the MAX never returns to service, at bargain prices. As the market slowly grows again, then AC could look at some fleet renewal.

Personally I think with the coming A220s, and the fleet of A321s augmented with Transat's LRs, AC could phase out its older A319s and A320s, and Embraers, and do without the MAX if RTS doesn't happen, and end up with a slimmer and still-efficient fleet.

Beech
Last edited by SQ22 on Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Title updated
 
jwjsamster
Posts: 45
Joined: Thu Jun 10, 2010 12:12 am

Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:03 pm

beechnut wrote:
Quebecers are also sensitive to names that are unilingual for domestic carriers. Air Transat and Air Canada both work in both official languages. It was the reason that Trans-Canada Airlines changed its name to Air Canada back in the mid-60s. "WestJet" sounds too much like a foreign carrier to many in Québec. Perhaps Onex will figure out a new brand-name that works in both languages. Maybe revive the Nordair brand although that probably belongs to Air Canada via the Canadian merger.

Beech



I"m pretty sure Quebeckers go or the cheapest flight like the rest of the world. We don't avoid an airline because it doesn't sound French enough.

Source: I am a quebecker.
 
PWA732
Posts: 17
Joined: Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:43 pm

Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:08 pm

You can't really look at the TransAt deal without considering the politics. The Quebec Government does not want unemployed people. TranAt is a bit of a Quebec darling. They are likely in talks with AC to salvage this thing, but since AC is a private company, it's going to cost the province some concessions or $$$ or both.

Pete.
 
codyul
Posts: 161
Joined: Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:43 pm

Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:09 pm

beechnut wrote:
skipness1E wrote:
Given the situation today, it would make more sense for Air Canada to simply walk away. They're going to be in no fit state to merge Air Transat into Rouge to combine a larger leisure carrier. They're going to be taking an axe to both Rouge and mainline for the medium term, this Northern summer is a write off, it's a battle for survival. Circumstances have changed beyond all recognition, any sense this merger made last years isn't there anymore.
Transat may well collapse of it's own accord without any need for Air Canada to do anything. We're not going to bounce nack towards BAU anytime in 2020 and even 2021 might be a huge struggle. It seems an insane idea to try and *add* to your fleet and staffing levels given that COVID19 has put the whole industry on death watch. And no, I'm not over egging this. Consumer confidence doesn't do well in an economy likely to see such a huge drop, actually collapse in GDP. Air Canada is going to be way smaller when it emerges, this merger no longer makes any sense.


I think this is highly possible. Air Canada can then look at picking up some key Transat assets at bargain prices. I'm thinking especially of its 321LRs which would be great for a thinner transatlantic market. It could then cancel the balance of its MAX order (I'm sure they have a good case for cancellation of undelivered aircraft due to the more than 1-year delay in RTS). It would also buy them some protection if the MAX never returns to service, at bargain prices. As the market slowly grows again, then AC could look at some fleet renewal.

Personally I think with the coming A220s, and the fleet of A321s augmented with Transat's LRs, AC could phase out its older A319s and A320s, and Embraers, and do without the MAX if RTS doesn't happen, and end up with a slimmer and still-efficient fleet.

Beech

100p agree with this. Feds would back AC keeping a220 for the jobs in Mirabel. Max could be dropped (undelivered planes).
Likely there will be a consolidation, Transat pieces folded into AC. Sunwing maybe into WestJet, if that is at all feasible. Only thing would be Sunwing's hotels and resorts that are owned.
Interesting times to say the least.
As far as crew, I am 60 percent seniority at mainline, I would be not be surprised that a package is offered to seniors for earlier retirement. But that is likely being scrambled in the backroom as we hypothesize. The reason I think this makes sense, the vast juniors cost much less, and the hit for packages could be made up over a quick time. Also, since the growth back would likely be very deliberate and progressive, then new hires could be brought in, also at lower pay scales to the senior group.
Just some hypothesis from a AC nerd haha
YUL PNC :weightlifter:
 
codyul
Posts: 161
Joined: Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:43 pm

Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:11 pm

[url][/url]
PWA732 wrote:
You can't really look at the TransAt deal without considering the politics. The Quebec Government does not want unemployed people. TranAt is a bit of a Quebec darling. They are likely in talks with AC to salvage this thing, but since AC is a private company, it's going to cost the province some concessions or $$$ or both.

Pete.

Again totally agree. Legault will be negotiating at what expense to sell Transat to AC. He will not let that darling company (not to mention his own personal baby) go completely bust with no solution.
YUL PNC :weightlifter:
 
beechnut
Posts: 956
Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2004 12:27 am

Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:20 pm

jwjsamster wrote:
Source: I am a quebecker.


So am I and my first language is French. I’m not a nationalist though and could care less about such things but I have many nationalist friends for whom such things matter... at least over a beer or coffee.

Beech
 
beechnut
Posts: 956
Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2004 12:27 am

Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:53 pm

codyul wrote:
Again totally agree. Legault will be negotiating at what expense to sell Transat to AC. He will not let that darling company (not to mention his own personal baby) go completely bust with no solution.


Also possible. Another possibility is negotiating an extension to the deadline on the deal if both parties agree, but I suspect Transat won't survive long if it has to ground itself for more than a few weeks.

The next month will be very interesting.

Beech
 
steveinbc
Posts: 353
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 4:30 pm

Re: Air Canada/Air Transat Merger Receives Negative Report from Competition Bureau

Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:41 am

I'm hoping that all three of the largest carriers will survive this summer. We need competition in Canada and two airlines don't cut it. On a personal note, I sincerely hope Air Transat will survive since I've just been given my credit of $2000 to be used within 24 months. I'm seeking clarification from my credit card that they will refund me if they go under.....let's hope
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