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UA748i
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787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:21 am

With the ending of the 747, ditto with the 777 and the 777X probably being 3-5 years too late, it would seem that, for the time being, the 787 will be Boeing's mainstay widebody. As the type is now well established, what are the future prospects of the aircraft in terms of updates and future variants?

There are a few I am thinking of. This includes:

787-9LR - A niche subtype with a range increase to 8500nm to replace the 777-8

787-10ER - Range increase to 7000nm, and replaces the 777-300ER and 777-9.

787 Freighter - Replacing 767-300ERF, 777F, MD-11 and A300

Perhaps these subvariants represent the potential "Next Generation" with a new engine set, notably with the potential RR Ultrafan.

Just a few things on my mind. What do you guys think?
 
VSMUT
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:57 am

The big problem with those ideas (not the freighter), is that the 787 can't really grow any more. The runway loading will be too great if they increase the MTOM of the 787-9/10, necessitating a new landing gear like the A350-1000s 6-wheel bogey or the A340s center landing gear. That will increase the weight, development cost and complexity of the 787, putting it at a distinct disadvantage to the A350.

The future of the 787 lies in improved efficiency, lighter materials, improved engines, lower fuel burn, cabin improvements and all of that.

The difference with the 787 compared to previous programs is that they pretty much went directly to the HGW variants. In the past, Boeing built the low-weight non-ER versions first (see the 777-200A and 767-300A). With the 787, they essentially went directly to the ER/LR version.


UA748i wrote:
Perhaps these subvariants represent the potential "Next Generation" with a new engine set, notably with the potential RR Ultrafan.


Airbus and the EU are involved in the Ultrafan. There's a fairly good chance they pull a 777-GE90 stunt and insist on exclusivity. Besides which, the Ultrafan will be a huge engine, with a diameter of over 3.5 meters, bigger than the GE9X. It just won't fit on the 787.


UA748i wrote:
787 Freighter - Replacing 767-300ERF, 777F, MD-11 and A300


Not going to happen. As many on A.net insist on, anything larger than a code D wingspan is unable to fit in US airport stands and gates :duck:

Seriously though, it will probably happen eventually, but as long as the market is flooded with cheap A330s (and a few remaining 767s), the economy just isn't there to justify a new-build 787 freighter. Maybe in 5 years.
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 8:23 am

UA748i wrote:
With the ending of the 747, ditto with the 777 and the 777X probably being 3-5 years too late, it would seem that, for the time being, the 787 will be Boeing's mainstay widebody. As the type is now well established, what are the future prospects of the aircraft in terms of updates and future variants?

There are a few I am thinking of. This includes:

787-9LR - A niche subtype with a range increase to 8500nm to replace the 777-8

787-10ER - Range increase to 7000nm, and replaces the 777-300ER and 777-9.

787 Freighter - Replacing 767-300ERF, 777F, MD-11 and A300

Perhaps these subvariants represent the potential "Next Generation" with a new engine set, notably with the potential RR Ultrafan.

Just a few things on my mind. What do you guys think?


Who needs a 787-10ER when the A350-900 already does basically that? Not to mention the 787-10 is already getting a modest PIP (for Air New Zealand) that will enable it to be an essentially-perfect replacement for the 777-200ER.

The 787-9 is also likely getting a modest PIP (for the Air NZ thing as described above), but 8500nmi is likely a technical impossibility.

Remember that while Airbus and Boeing technically have a "duopoly," they try to make jets which aren't perfect substitutes. Thus, each 'family' of jets retains a monopoly within its own market segment. If you want something the size of an A330-300 but with a 777-300ERs range, you get a 787-9. If you want a 777-200 sized jet that can fly beyond a 777-300ER's range, you get an A350-900. If you want something in the 777-300ER's size category, the A350-1000 does it for you but with more range.

Even the 737-800 and A320 aren't perfect substitutes (the former is larger).
 
Opus99
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 8:42 am

I don’t see the 787 changes being more than upgraded engine, maybe more wingspan etc. Make it more efficient at what it already does but when you begin to add all that you’re now changing the well established roles of the jet which have worked very well for it and then you begin to cannibalise other projects. Why would Boeing now look to replace the 777X series after just investing in it. They must have that separation to keep the customers that need that kind of jet interested in it.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 8:50 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
UA748i wrote:
With the ending of the 747, ditto with the 777 and the 777X probably being 3-5 years too late, it would seem that, for the time being, the 787 will be Boeing's mainstay widebody. As the type is now well established, what are the future prospects of the aircraft in terms of updates and future variants?

There are a few I am thinking of. This includes:

787-9LR - A niche subtype with a range increase to 8500nm to replace the 777-8

787-10ER - Range increase to 7000nm, and replaces the 777-300ER and 777-9.

787 Freighter - Replacing 767-300ERF, 777F, MD-11 and A300

Perhaps these subvariants represent the potential "Next Generation" with a new engine set, notably with the potential RR Ultrafan.

Just a few things on my mind. What do you guys think?


Who needs a 787-10ER when the A350-900 already does basically that? Not to mention the 787-10 is already getting a modest PIP (for Air New Zealand) that will enable it to be an essentially-perfect replacement for the 777-200ER.

The 787-9 is also likely getting a modest PIP (for the Air NZ thing as described above), but 8500nmi is likely a technical impossibility.

Remember that while Airbus and Boeing technically have a "duopoly," they try to make jets which aren't perfect substitutes. Thus, each 'family' of jets retains a monopoly within its own market segment. If you want something the size of an A330-300 but with a 777-300ERs range, you get a 787-9. If you want a 777-200 sized jet that can fly beyond a 777-300ER's range, you get an A350-900. If you want something in the 777-300ER's size category, the A350-1000 does it for you but with more range.

Even the 737-800 and A320 aren't perfect substitutes (the former is larger).


Some 787 operators could do with a 787-10ER, NZ is a case in point. They will use the 789 on the longest flights still in future post 777, the 78J will do West coast US-AKL.
 
StTim
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:09 am

I cannot see any new major projects getting kicked off for at least the next couple of years. Everyone is in survival mode and conserving cash is critical. There will be some small projects around (such as the A330neo 251t) but nothing major. Even re-engine projects will be delayed as the engine manufacturers are hurting bigly as someone would say.
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:30 am

ZK-NBT wrote:

Some 787 operators could do with a 787-10ER, NZ is a case in point.


After the 787 gets the PIPs that NZ require, are there any operators who need a 787-10ER but cannot get A350-900s instead?

I don't know of any. American Airlines maybe, if they want to replace the 777-300ERs with PIP'd 787-10s in the very distant future. But I think basically every airline that wants a jet of 777-200ER size yet extended range has already ordered A350s.
 
jayunited
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 12:45 pm

UA748i wrote:
With the ending of the 747, ditto with the 777 and the 777X probably being 3-5 years too late, it would seem that, for the time being, the 787 will be Boeing's mainstay widebody. As the type is now well established, what are the future prospects of the aircraft in terms of updates and future variants?

There are a few I am thinking of. This includes:

787-9LR - A niche subtype with a range increase to 8500nm to replace the 777-8

787-10ER - Range increase to 7000nm, and replaces the 777-300ER and 777-9.

787 Freighter - Replacing 767-300ERF, 777F, MD-11 and A300

Perhaps these subvariants represent the potential "Next Generation" with a new engine set, notably with the potential RR Ultrafan.

Just a few things on my mind. What do you guys think?



There is simply no way to get another 1000nm out of the current 789. United Airlines on our IAH-SYD route would routinely max out the fuel tanks on that route. Boeing would need to increase the capacity of the fuel tanks. Another issue with the 787 especially the 8 and 9 variants is they are low to the ground and as large as those wings are they don't hold much fuel when compared to the wing on a 77E. Depending on density the wings are maxed out around 38,000 LBS each. Even though the 787 has a massive center tank the fuel tanks are max out around 220,000 LBS depending on density. IAH-SYD is around 7460nm, how does Boeing get an additional 1000nm out of this aircraft? Even with the pip that is coming out (may already be out) for the 789 that pip will not get you to 8500nm.

As far as a 787-10ER what you are proposing would involve major structural changes. Again the 78X has the same fuel capacity of its smaller sibling the 789. The issues are if you put 220,000 LBS of fuel on a 78X you will run out of ZFW and TOG long before you even get close to putting 300+ passengers and their bags onboard. A pip 78X will improve fuel burn and increase range but it does nothing to increase MZFW or MTOG, so you can forget about carrying 300+ passenger, 450+ bags and 20,000 LBS of cargo. The 77W can take all of this with ZFW and TOG to spare especially on a route like SFO-AKL.

The 787 does not need to be the jack of all trades, if an airline requires a aircraft with more capabilities or more capacity they can choose from the the A359, A35J, or the 779.
 
T4thH
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 1:06 pm

UA748i wrote:
787 Freighter - Replacing 767-300ERF, 777F, MD-11 and A300

Sorry, but no freighter version according my knowledge, as I have seen and as someone has once explained to me. The B787 (all versions) have been constructed as 100 % passenger jet, so it has been constructed to maximize the benefit in use as passenger jet, but this excludes any conversion to a freighter version. The B787 is just constructed for light passenger/best CASM. So there will be no second life as freighter (I do not want to exclude any extreme light volume freight). The whole internal structure/floor structure just excludes any second life conversion or new build freighter version, it is not strong enough and can also not accordingly reinforced, they are constructed in such a way, that a reinforcement is more or less even excluded; as said, 100% optimized for CASM.

So as long someone does not want to transport sealed air in form of empty styrofoam boxes and empty cardboard boxes -> No B787 freighter.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 1:18 pm

jayunited wrote:
UA748i wrote:
With the ending of the 747, ditto with the 777 and the 777X probably being 3-5 years too late, it would seem that, for the time being, the 787 will be Boeing's mainstay widebody. As the type is now well established, what are the future prospects of the aircraft in terms of updates and future variants?

There are a few I am thinking of. This includes:

787-9LR - A niche subtype with a range increase to 8500nm to replace the 777-8

787-10ER - Range increase to 7000nm, and replaces the 777-300ER and 777-9.

787 Freighter - Replacing 767-300ERF, 777F, MD-11 and A300

Perhaps these subvariants represent the potential "Next Generation" with a new engine set, notably with the potential RR Ultrafan.

Just a few things on my mind. What do you guys think?



There is simply no way to get another 1000nm out of the current 789. United Airlines on our IAH-SYD route would routinely max out the fuel tanks on that route. Boeing would need to increase the capacity of the fuel tanks. Another issue with the 787 especially the 8 and 9 variants is they are low to the ground and as large as those wings are they don't hold much fuel when compared to the wing on a 77E. Depending on density the wings are maxed out around 38,000 LBS each. Even though the 787 has a massive center tank the fuel tanks are max out around 220,000 LBS depending on density. IAH-SYD is around 7460nm, how does Boeing get an additional 1000nm out of this aircraft? Even with the pip that is coming out (may already be out) for the 789 that pip will not get you to 8500nm.


The sales mix of -8, -9, -10 will yield clues as to why customers are buying 787s. IMHO it's fuel efficiency per seat without high seat count, not for super-long range. I don't see much prospect for big ROI by spending $$$ to extend range. That's a very small niche. A345 vs. A346. 77L vs. 77W. 744ER vs. 744.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:25 pm

Any modest range increase would have to come from a new engine if a significant fuel burn reduction. Not much left to tinker around with the 787 as is.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:40 pm

T4thH wrote:
UA748i wrote:
787 Freighter - Replacing 767-300ERF, 777F, MD-11 and A300

Sorry, but no freighter version according my knowledge, as I have seen and as someone has once explained to me. The B787 (all versions) have been constructed as 100 % passenger jet, so it has been constructed to maximize the benefit in use as passenger jet, but this excludes any conversion to a freighter version. The B787 is just constructed for light passenger/best CASM. So there will be no second life as freighter (I do not want to exclude any extreme light volume freight). The whole internal structure/floor structure just excludes any second life conversion or new build freighter version, it is not strong enough and can also not accordingly reinforced, they are constructed in such a way, that a reinforcement is more or less even excluded; as said, 100% optimized for CASM.

So as long someone does not want to transport sealed air in form of empty styrofoam boxes and empty cardboard boxes -> No B787 freighter.

That goes against what a lot of people are saying, that is that the 787 has a "dedicated" area in the fuselage where a cargo door can be cut (no wiring or ducts in that area). It seems the cargo conversion, and cargo variant, was designed in the 787 pax.
 
ILikeTrains
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:44 pm

787 does fine as is. Newer engine tech like CMC will help. The rumored 260t buff for Air NZ will make the 78X more palatable on longer routes. The 789 with that buff will be slightly better of an ULH plane (im actually curious how much it will skew the payload range charge).

Big picture, decades out, pie in the sky guess? Larger wings out to 65m (maybe folding?), 6-bogey MLG, another extension for a ~74m 787-11. Idk, but in its current form, I think Boeing is still looking to tinker with it to squeeze out every bit of juice.

Freighter variant I have no idea. I imagine a purpose-built GEnx powered 764xF is more likely than a dedicated 787F.

Edit: just a question here, but would a PiP’d 260t 789 be able to do SIN-EWR? That route is only about 460nm longer than PER-LHR. Not sure about load differences between QF and SQ, or the winds on each route.
 
DylanHarvey
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:37 pm

ILikeTrains wrote:
787 does fine as is. Newer engine tech like CMC will help. The rumored 260t buff for Air NZ will make the 78X more palatable on longer routes. The 789 with that buff will be slightly better of an ULH plane (im actually curious how much it will skew the payload range charge).

Big picture, decades out, pie in the sky guess? Larger wings out to 65m (maybe folding?), 6-bogey MLG, another extension for a ~74m 787-11. Idk, but in its current form, I think Boeing is still looking to tinker with it to squeeze out every bit of juice.

Freighter variant I have no idea. I imagine a purpose-built GEnx powered 764xF is more likely than a dedicated 787F.

Edit: just a question here, but would a PiP’d 260t 789 be able to do SIN-EWR? That route is only about 460nm longer than PER-LHR. Not sure about load differences between QF and SQ, or the winds on each route.

It should be able to do it, i'm not sure how much room will be left though, the 359 has done it with almost 10t of MTOW left, sometimes even more. The 789 might burn a tad less fuel, but payload the 359 should do it handily. in terms of actual distance EWR-SIN can touch 9300-9400nm sometimes.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:45 pm

The 789 and 787-10 wing is maxed out at the current MTOW. In other words, both variants are currently optimized and there is really no room to increase MTOW significantly without spending billions to design a new wing. Modest PIP's can still happen as well as improved engine tech. But structurally the 789 and 787-10 can be considered HGW variants with little room to increase MTOW beyond 5-6 tons.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:00 pm

The Ultrafan requires about $8 billion uss to become a production engine. A great idea from a company that cannot invest.

ikolkyo wrote:
Any modest range increase would have to come from a new engine if a significant fuel burn reduction. Not much left to tinker around with the 787 as is.

The 787 should receive the following engine PiPs, not a new engine:
1. Variable Turbine cooling (2.5% for a retrofit fuel burn reduction, 3% when the engine is designed around the concept). Introduced on LEAP-1A
2. Better compressor blade shapes. Maybe 1 % fuel burn reduction Introduced on GEnX
3. New low turbine (requires a new casing, cannot be retrofitted to already built engines). About a 2% fuel burn reduction on a new design, so probably only 1.25% fuel burn reduction because it is too late to resize the low compressor and fan. Introduced LEAP-1B, not on the LEAP-1A.

BTW, Pratt is ahead on turbines IMHO and MTU is helping with the R&D to catch up on compressors (see V2500 Select One PiP, there is more in that PiP than is obvious).

The Ultrafan is impressive tech, but needs quite a bit of development before it is ready. A major PiP is due.

Note, the PiP I described is about a $2.5 billion usd PiP... :wideeyed:

Lightsaber
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Bricktop
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:12 pm

jayunited wrote:
The 787 does not need to be the jack of all trades, if an airline requires a aircraft with more capabilities or more capacity they can choose from the the A359, A35J, or the 779.

Right. 1,500 orders, it's doing something right. No-one is beating down the doors for upgrades of the B787 or A350 lines. If anything, keeping the backlog real is the task.

For new and improved, BCA should be looking NB.
 
Insertnamehere
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:21 pm

T4thH wrote:
UA748i wrote:
787 Freighter - Replacing 767-300ERF, 777F, MD-11 and A300

Sorry, but no freighter version according my knowledge, as I have seen and as someone has once explained to me. The B787 (all versions) have been constructed as 100 % passenger jet, so it has been constructed to maximize the benefit in use as passenger jet, but this excludes any conversion to a freighter version. The B787 is just constructed for light passenger/best CASM. So there will be no second life as freighter (I do not want to exclude any extreme light volume freight). The whole internal structure/floor structure just excludes any second life conversion or new build freighter version, it is not strong enough and can also not accordingly reinforced, they are constructed in such a way, that a reinforcement is more or less even excluded; as said, 100% optimized for CASM.

So as long someone does not want to transport sealed air in form of empty styrofoam boxes and empty cardboard boxes -> No B787 freighter.


Sorry if this is a dumb question but isn't Amazon's operation considered light volume cargo? Considering its just Amazon boxes generally. Obviously they aren't going to pick up any until they start getting retired and become quite cheap as new-builds don't make sense. An Amazon colored 787 sure would be snappy though, especially if they color the wingtips.
 
Sokes
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:23 pm

B787-8:
Can it be produced at competitive price?

B787-9:
I suppose a -9LR would be without competition. But does the -9 lack range?

B787-10:
I see no point for a -10ER. Better to go for A350-900.

How is the GEnX engine doing?
Any durability issues?
Are there rumours about a new engine?

VSMUT wrote:
UA748i wrote:
Perhaps these subvariants represent the potential "Next Generation" with a new engine set, notably with the potential RR Ultrafan.


Airbus and the EU are involved in the Ultrafan. There's a fairly good chance they pull a 777-GE90 stunt and insist on exclusivity. Besides which, the Ultrafan will be a huge engine, with a diameter of over 3.5 meters, bigger than the GE9X. It just won't fit on the 787.

You have a source?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Opus99
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:34 pm

Anytime I see someone bring up the ultrafan I actually laugh because come on? RR is not bringing any engine out this decade that is for sure.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:45 pm

StudiodeKadent wrote:

Who needs a 787-10ER when the A350-900 already does basically that?


An Airline that already operates the 787?
 
RainerBoeing777
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:46 pm

one of the models that Boeing should re-launch is also the Boeing 787-3 which would be a true replacement for the B757 / 767 families

Another one that has to develop is the Boeing 787-9LR, it would be a tremendous Ultra Long-range aircraft that can do routes like:

SYD, MEL, BNE - Toronto, East Coast of the USA, Europe
JNB - AKL,MIA,IAH,ORD,YYZ,TPE,NRT
DEL - LAX,DFW,IAH
MEX - SYD
ADD - SFO/LAX/SEA/MEL/SYD
IST - SYD/MEL/AKL/BNE
TLV - SYD
SIN - IAH,YYZ,ORD,GRU
HKG - MEX/MIA/ATL
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG - UA
 
DylanHarvey
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:08 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
one of the models that Boeing should re-launch is also the Boeing 787-3 which would be a true replacement for the B757 / 767 families

Another one that has to develop is the Boeing 787-9LR, it would be a tremendous Ultra Long-range aircraft that can do routes like:

SYD, MEL, BNE - Toronto, East Coast of the USA, Europe
JNB - AKL,MIA,IAH,ORD,YYZ,TPE,NRT
DEL - LAX,DFW,IAH
MEX - SYD
ADD - SFO/LAX/SEA/MEL/SYD
IST - SYD/MEL/AKL/BNE
TLV - SYD
SIN - IAH,YYZ,ORD,GRU
HKG - MEX/MIA/ATL

A 280t 359 or a 316t A35K can do quite a few of those. Also the extreme field performance you need for ADD-West Coast USA would be insane. You might do it with a 97k 280t 359.
 
UA748i
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:19 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:

Who needs a 787-10ER when the A350-900 already does basically that?


An Airline that already operates the 787?


I agree. Especially for an airline like AA, a 787-10ER, if it ever came to be, could be potentially ideal to replace their 777-300ERs.

I do believe AA will be ordering more 787s to replace the 777 completely in the future, regardless.
 
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Antaras
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:35 pm

UA748i wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:

Who needs a 787-10ER when the A350-900 already does basically that?


An Airline that already operates the 787?


I agree. Especially for an airline like AA, a 787-10ER, if it ever came to be, could be potentially ideal to replace their 777-300ERs.

I do believe AA will be ordering more 787s to replace the 777 completely in the future, regardless.

It has been never a big deal operating both B787 and A350.

Let's have a look: QR, VN, SQ, BA, CA, CZ, JL... or UA in the future.
Except for JL, most of the above carriers utilize their A359 for long-haul missions, and many of those routes can be out of the 789's range.
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
moyangmm
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 8:54 pm

Who needs more range out of current 787-9? 787-9 is already the king of ULH. Think of SIN-SFO, SIN-LAX, PER-LHR. Nothing beats 787-9's efficiency and range.
 
moyangmm
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 8:57 pm

DylanHarvey wrote:
A 280t 359 or a 316t A35K can do quite a few of those. Also the extreme field performance you need for ADD-West Coast USA would be insane. You might do it with a 97k 280t 359.


280t 359 cannot do JNB-ATL, which is why DL adds CPT stop. Not sure if 787-9 can do this. I guess we will never know since DL won't order 787 at least for now.
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 4096
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:49 pm

moyangmm wrote:
Who needs more range out of current 787-9? 787-9 is already the king of ULH. Think of SIN-SFO, SIN-LAX, PER-LHR. Nothing beats 787-9's efficiency and range.

The king of ULH? It’s good but their are a number of aircraft more capable in terms of payload range so to Call it the king is a stretch in my opinion.

Who needs more range out of a 789? Well united for one. Would stop them having to block seats SFO-SIN...

moyangmm wrote:
DylanHarvey wrote:
A 280t 359 or a 316t A35K can do quite a few of those. Also the extreme field performance you need for ADD-West Coast USA would be insane. You might do it with a 97k 280t 359.


280t 359 cannot do JNB-ATL, which is why DL adds CPT stop. Not sure if 787-9 can do this. I guess we will never know since DL won't order 787 at least for now.


The A359 is on the limit out of JNB so needs to go to CPT to ensure consistency. A quick glance at the ACAPS for the 787 will show the 789 capable of about 17t of payload on that route (assuming high thrust engines)compared to ~32t for A359. Obviously there would be variation up and down due to temp. ISA+15 drops the A359 to about 29t and the 789 to about 15t.

I think we know delta wouldn’t order the 789 for that route...

On the topic of upgrading the 787 family, I can’t see weights increasing much as it is in a sweet spot regarding payload range and as stated there isn’t much need to go further so a lot of the missions would be hampered by additional weight. Play the long game and let the pips come through.

Fred


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Image
 
DylanHarvey
Posts: 455
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:45 pm

Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:09 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
moyangmm wrote:
Who needs more range out of current 787-9? 787-9 is already the king of ULH. Think of SIN-SFO, SIN-LAX, PER-LHR. Nothing beats 787-9's efficiency and range.

The king of ULH? It’s good but their are a number of aircraft more capable in terms of payload range so to Call it the king is a stretch in my opinion.

Who needs more range out of a 789? Well united for one. Would stop them having to block seats SFO-SIN...

moyangmm wrote:
DylanHarvey wrote:
A 280t 359 or a 316t A35K can do quite a few of those. Also the extreme field performance you need for ADD-West Coast USA would be insane. You might do it with a 97k 280t 359.


280t 359 cannot do JNB-ATL, which is why DL adds CPT stop. Not sure if 787-9 can do this. I guess we will never know since DL won't order 787 at least for now.


The A359 is on the limit out of JNB so needs to go to CPT to ensure consistency. A quick glance at the ACAPS for the 787 will show the 789 capable of about 17t of payload on that route (assuming high thrust engines)compared to ~32t for A359. Obviously there would be variation up and down due to temp. ISA+15 drops the A359 to about 29t and the 789 to about 15t.

I think we know delta wouldn’t order the 789 for that route...

On the topic of upgrading the 787 family, I can’t see weights increasing much as it is in a sweet spot regarding payload range and as stated there isn’t much need to go further so a lot of the missions would be hampered by additional weight. Play the long game and let the pips come through.

Fred


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Thank you Fred for saving me getting banned from being annoyed at a certain user :)
 
FriscoHeavy
Posts: 1831
Joined: Tue May 27, 2014 4:31 pm

Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:53 am

flipdewaf wrote:
moyangmm wrote:
Who needs more range out of current 787-9? 787-9 is already the king of ULH. Think of SIN-SFO, SIN-LAX, PER-LHR. Nothing beats 787-9's efficiency and range.

The king of ULH? It’s good but their are a number of aircraft more capable in terms of payload range so to Call it the king is a stretch in my opinion.

Who needs more range out of a 789? Well united for one. Would stop them having to block seats SFO-SIN...

moyangmm wrote:
DylanHarvey wrote:
A 280t 359 or a 316t A35K can do quite a few of those. Also the extreme field performance you need for ADD-West Coast USA would be insane. You might do it with a 97k 280t 359.


280t 359 cannot do JNB-ATL, which is why DL adds CPT stop. Not sure if 787-9 can do this. I guess we will never know since DL won't order 787 at least for now.


The A359 is on the limit out of JNB so needs to go to CPT to ensure consistency. A quick glance at the ACAPS for the 787 will show the 789 capable of about 17t of payload on that route (assuming high thrust engines)compared to ~32t for A359. Obviously there would be variation up and down due to temp. ISA+15 drops the A359 to about 29t and the 789 to about 15t.

I think we know delta wouldn’t order the 789 for that route...

On the topic of upgrading the 787 family, I can’t see weights increasing much as it is in a sweet spot regarding payload range and as stated there isn’t much need to go further so a lot of the missions would be hampered by additional weight. Play the long game and let the pips come through.

Fred


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Fred, that is simply false information and has been covered for a couple of years on here.

On all but the worst days, United can carry a full load of passengers, bags and averages about 7 tons of cargo on the SFO-SIN leg. It very rarely block seats like you suggests. Quite the opposite, actually.
Whatever
 
moyangmm
Posts: 230
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:22 pm

Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:33 am

flipdewaf wrote:
Who needs more range out of a 789? Well united for one. Would stop them having to block seats SFO-SIN...


Please stop spreading misinformation. As FriscoHeavy said above, UA carries full load plus decent amount of cargo consistently on SFO-SIN.

Let's check how many passengers a bigger, heavier, allegedly longer range plane can carry on the very same route, SFO-SIN. Hmmm, 253 seats. :white:
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 2268
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:48 am

The 787 has been a game changer and even without putting COVID19 aside for a moment and the tremendous impact it has had on global aviation, it continues to be a performer where it needs to be. Boeing got a lot of things right with the 787 over the basis for the A380, which in spite of the marvels it brought (quiet ride, economies of scale), is simply too much plane for all but a handful of routes and one operator, which now finds itself in a quandary. The 787 and the A350 can compete and offer pluses and minuses to each operator that evaluates one or the other or in some instances, operates both. As for future enhancements to the 787, I suspect there will be some, but given Boeing's recent trials and tribulations, nothing will move quickly (nor can it) and regardless, it will take global aviation a long time to get back to pre-COVID19 levels even with a successful and effective vaccine. The world of aviation as we knew it before COVID isn't coming back. The future will likely include health passports and other measures that will make air travel more costly to deliver, so further savings on weight, fuel, etc...will push A and B to tweak the 787 and 350 slowly but surely.
 
DylanHarvey
Posts: 455
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:45 pm

Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:17 am

moyangmm wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
Who needs more range out of a 789? Well united for one. Would stop them having to block seats SFO-SIN...


Please stop spreading misinformation. As FriscoHeavy said above, UA carries full load plus decent amount of cargo consistently on SFO-SIN.

Let's check how many passengers a bigger, heavier, allegedly longer range plane can carry on the very same route, SFO-SIN. Hmmm, 253 seats. :white:

Also add well comfortably below MTOW, about 5t below MTOW since SQ use a 276t 359, so at 271t, a brand new 359 is about 135T DOW, use a bad day of 17.5hrs and 5.8t an hour, thats 101t of fuel roughly, 5t of reserve puts you at 106, that gives you about 39t give or take on a 280t bird, a 276 will have you at roughly 35t, so that means SQ can carry about 10t of cargo compared to about 7ish for a 789 as stated by FriscoHeavy. I used 5.4t an hour for the 789 and 128t DOW.
Both extremely capable aircraft, the 359 can take more comfortably as its heavier and has a lot more fuel to work with.
 
User avatar
MrHMSH
Posts: 2789
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:27 am

moyangmm wrote:
Who needs more range out of current 787-9? 787-9 is already the king of ULH. Think of SIN-SFO, SIN-LAX, PER-LHR. Nothing beats 787-9's efficiency and range.


SIN-SFO is operated by a 276T A359, LAX-SIN is not operated by the 789 anymore as the payload could be restricted, so the aircraft was reassigned to a 2nd SFO-SIN. An A350 would be easily capable of operating PER-LHR, but the only airlines (BA, VS, QF) that would want to do this route either don't want to do it, or are happy with the 789. These facts have been pointed out to you before, the amount of detail in responses to you over the years has been incredible, yet you still continue to persist with these myths. A.net would be a much better place without your incessant and oft-dismissed misinformation.

Yes, the A359 flies further and lifts more, those are facts, please learn to listen to posters who have proven you wrong far more than is necessary.
 
DylanHarvey
Posts: 455
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:58 am

MrHMSH wrote:
moyangmm wrote:
Who needs more range out of current 787-9? 787-9 is already the king of ULH. Think of SIN-SFO, SIN-LAX, PER-LHR. Nothing beats 787-9's efficiency and range.


SIN-SFO is operated by a 276T A359, LAX-SIN is not operated by the 789 anymore as the payload could be restricted, so the aircraft was reassigned to a 2nd SFO-SIN. An A350 would be easily capable of operating PER-LHR, but the only airlines (BA, VS, QF) that would want to do this route either don't want to do it, or are happy with the 789. These facts have been pointed out to you before, the amount of detail in responses to you over the years has been incredible, yet you still continue to persist with these myths. A.net would be a much better place without your incessant and oft-dismissed misinformation.

Yes, the A359 flies further and lifts more, those are facts, please learn to listen to posters who have proven you wrong far more than is necessary.

We’ll never beat the trolls but we will try. And the 359 is comfortable under MTOW on these routes
 
DylanHarvey
Posts: 455
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:45 pm

Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:01 am

MrHMSH wrote:
moyangmm wrote:
Who needs more range out of current 787-9? 787-9 is already the king of ULH. Think of SIN-SFO, SIN-LAX, PER-LHR. Nothing beats 787-9's efficiency and range.


SIN-SFO is operated by a 276T A359, LAX-SIN is not operated by the 789 anymore as the payload could be restricted, so the aircraft was reassigned to a 2nd SFO-SIN. An A350 would be easily capable of operating PER-LHR, but the only airlines (BA, VS, QF) that would want to do this route either don't want to do it, or are happy with the 789. These facts have been pointed out to you before, the amount of detail in responses to you over the years has been incredible, yet you still continue to persist with these myths. A.net would be a much better place without your incessant and oft-dismissed misinformation.

Yes, the A359 flies further and lifts more, those are facts, please learn to listen to posters who have proven you wrong far more than is necessary.

Also he fails to mention the 789 landing with like 4t or less of reserve into PER and LHR, and needing to lower the MTOW AKA block seats just to get more range. If the 359 could land with 3t of reserve we have 18hrs and 325pax.
 
StudiodeKadent
Posts: 444
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:43 am

Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:23 am

UA748i wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:

Who needs a 787-10ER when the A350-900 already does basically that?


An Airline that already operates the 787?


I agree. Especially for an airline like AA, a 787-10ER, if it ever came to be, could be potentially ideal to replace their 777-300ERs.

I do believe AA will be ordering more 787s to replace the 777 completely in the future, regardless.


I agree that's a genuine possibility, particularly given how Hong Kong is almost certainly going to enter decline due to relatively recent geopolitical changes (unfortunately). Cathay can take over the HKG routes or AA can use a 787-9. Meanwhile, the 787-10 could provide first class to Haneda, Heathrow, Sao Paolo and anywhere else in South America or Europe. Australia's First Class market can be served by Qantas alone and AA can make that a joint venture with QF.

That said, AA might want to start flights to Singapore sometime soon, and Singapore is the precise kind of destination that justifies a full 4-class service. So maybe AA will get A350-900 or A350-1000s to replace the 777-300ERs, just for the flexibility the extra range will present.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2953
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Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:56 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
UA748i wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

An Airline that already operates the 787?


I agree. Especially for an airline like AA, a 787-10ER, if it ever came to be, could be potentially ideal to replace their 777-300ERs.

I do believe AA will be ordering more 787s to replace the 777 completely in the future, regardless.


I agree that's a genuine possibility, particularly given how Hong Kong is almost certainly going to enter decline due to relatively recent geopolitical changes (unfortunately). Cathay can take over the HKG routes or AA can use a 787-9. Meanwhile, the 787-10 could provide first class to Haneda, Heathrow, Sao Paolo and anywhere else in South America or Europe. Australia's First Class market can be served by Qantas alone and AA can make that a joint venture with QF.

That said, AA might want to start flights to Singapore sometime soon, and Singapore is the precise kind of destination that justifies a full 4-class service. So maybe AA will get A350-900 or A350-1000s to replace the 777-300ERs, just for the flexibility the extra range will present.


The AA 77W is very young. Why would they be replacing it?
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 2322
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:05 am

moyangmm wrote:
Please stop spreading misinformation. As FriscoHeavy said above, UA carries full load plus decent amount of cargo consistently on SFO-SIN.

In flipdewaf defense, I think he meant LAX-SIN.

United operated the route for 8 months and always had blocked seats and on a bad day it had over a dozen rows.

The A350-900 does this route fine with all seats filled even on a bad weather day.

moyangmm wrote:
Who needs more range out of current 787-9? 787-9 is already the king of ULH.

The A350-900 is better and more efficient on ULH so the 787-9 is clearly not the king.
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 4096
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:05 am

FriscoHeavy wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
moyangmm wrote:
Who needs more range out of current 787-9? 787-9 is already the king of ULH. Think of SIN-SFO, SIN-LAX, PER-LHR. Nothing beats 787-9's efficiency and range.

The king of ULH? It’s good but their are a number of aircraft more capable in terms of payload range so to Call it the king is a stretch in my opinion.

Who needs more range out of a 789? Well united for one. Would stop them having to block seats SFO-SIN...

moyangmm wrote:

280t 359 cannot do JNB-ATL, which is why DL adds CPT stop. Not sure if 787-9 can do this. I guess we will never know since DL won't order 787 at least for now.


The A359 is on the limit out of JNB so needs to go to CPT to ensure consistency. A quick glance at the ACAPS for the 787 will show the 789 capable of about 17t of payload on that route (assuming high thrust engines)compared to ~32t for A359. Obviously there would be variation up and down due to temp. ISA+15 drops the A359 to about 29t and the 789 to about 15t.

I think we know delta wouldn’t order the 789 for that route...

On the topic of upgrading the 787 family, I can’t see weights increasing much as it is in a sweet spot regarding payload range and as stated there isn’t much need to go further so a lot of the missions would be hampered by additional weight. Play the long game and let the pips come through.

Fred


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Fred, that is simply false information and has been covered for a couple of years on here.

On all but the worst days, United can carry a full load of passengers, bags and averages about 7 tons of cargo on the SFO-SIN leg. It very rarely block seats like you suggests. Quite the opposite, actually.

I didn’t suggest anything about the frequency about blocking seats, but you agree that it has to occasionally die to being outside the payload range envelope of the aircraft.

I don’t see how you can accuse me of spreading misinformation then showing you think it to be true also...



Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Image
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 4096
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:05 am

FriscoHeavy wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
moyangmm wrote:
Who needs more range out of current 787-9? 787-9 is already the king of ULH. Think of SIN-SFO, SIN-LAX, PER-LHR. Nothing beats 787-9's efficiency and range.

The king of ULH? It’s good but their are a number of aircraft more capable in terms of payload range so to Call it the king is a stretch in my opinion.

Who needs more range out of a 789? Well united for one. Would stop them having to block seats SFO-SIN...

moyangmm wrote:

280t 359 cannot do JNB-ATL, which is why DL adds CPT stop. Not sure if 787-9 can do this. I guess we will never know since DL won't order 787 at least for now.


The A359 is on the limit out of JNB so needs to go to CPT to ensure consistency. A quick glance at the ACAPS for the 787 will show the 789 capable of about 17t of payload on that route (assuming high thrust engines)compared to ~32t for A359. Obviously there would be variation up and down due to temp. ISA+15 drops the A359 to about 29t and the 789 to about 15t.

I think we know delta wouldn’t order the 789 for that route...

On the topic of upgrading the 787 family, I can’t see weights increasing much as it is in a sweet spot regarding payload range and as stated there isn’t much need to go further so a lot of the missions would be hampered by additional weight. Play the long game and let the pips come through.

Fred


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Fred, that is simply false information and has been covered for a couple of years on here.

On all but the worst days, United can carry a full load of passengers, bags and averages about 7 tons of cargo on the SFO-SIN leg. It very rarely block seats like you suggests. Quite the opposite, actually.

I didn’t suggest anything about the frequency about blocking seats, but you agree that it has to occasionally die to being outside the payload range envelope of the aircraft.

I don’t see how you can accuse me of spreading misinformation then showing you think it to be true also...



Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Image
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 4096
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:16 am

moyangmm wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
Who needs more range out of a 789? Well united for one. Would stop them having to block seats SFO-SIN...


Please stop spreading misinformation. As FriscoHeavy said above, UA carries full load plus decent amount of cargo consistently on SFO-SIN.

Let's check how many passengers a bigger, heavier, allegedly longer range plane can carry on the very same route, SFO-SIN. Hmmm, 253 seats. :white:

It could fly with one and be just as useful to determining the fact you seem to suggest. The point when blocking seats it’s that it’s done (normally) when the limit of the payload range curve is met. The fact that the SQ bird has 253 seats tells us nothing about how close to the limit it is. If you can find instances where the seats have to be blocked on the a350 then let us know and we can make an assessment on it’s limitations in the same way as we have done for the UA787.

Moyangmm, we have suitable information on both the 789 and A359 to make suitable assessments for their performance and much of this data has been put on to the 787 vs A350 range thread in tech ops. Would you like me to post a link?

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Image
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 2322
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:30 am

The 787 is so well optimised that there is little else to gain. The market is moving to smaller widebodies and the 787 being smaller than the A350 will become a big advantage. Boeing originally did plan to fit bigger wingtips to the 787-9 to give it the same span as the A350. But the wingtips only gave an advantage on flights over 10 hours. I doubt Boeing will ever fit these bigger tips as the vast majority of 787 flights are under 10 hours.

lightsaber wrote:
The 787 should receive the following engine PiPs, not a new engine:
1. Variable Turbine cooling (2.5% for a retrofit fuel burn reduction, 3% when the engine is designed around the concept). Introduced on LEAP-1A
2. Better compressor blade shapes. Maybe 1 % fuel burn reduction Introduced on GEnX
3. New low turbine

Note, the PiP I described is about a $2.5 billion usd PiP...

Spot on.

Boeing will go sole source with GE for the 787 engines. GE will pay for the PiP upgrades listed above for your estimated price. This is probably the most likely thing to happen compared to everything else in this thread.

I do not see how the 777X could compete with a 787NG. Air lines will always pick the smaller aircraft if fuel burn per seat is equal. The 777X engine advantage will be short lived.

Rolls Royce better deliver an improved engine for the A350. Airbus has all its widebody eggs in one basket. Airbus has no backup solution for the A350. Ultrafan is very high risk and without it the A350 will lose market share against a 787NG.
 
StudiodeKadent
Posts: 444
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:43 am

Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:50 am

TTailedTiger wrote:

The AA 77W is very young. Why would they be replacing it?


My post was made very much as an "in the very long term" speculation. AA will use those 777-300ERs as long as it is practical to do so, and if they were to go for 787-10s as a replacement that would likely happen very late in the life of the 787 program.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2492
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:04 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
one of the models that Boeing should re-launch is also the Boeing 787-3 which would be a true replacement for the B757 / 767 families

Another one that has to develop is the Boeing 787-9LR, it would be a tremendous Ultra Long-range aircraft that can do routes like:

SYD, MEL, BNE - Toronto, East Coast of the USA, Europe
JNB - AKL,MIA,IAH,ORD,YYZ,TPE,NRT
DEL - LAX,DFW,IAH
MEX - SYD
ADD - SFO/LAX/SEA/MEL/SYD
IST - SYD/MEL/AKL/BNE
TLV - SYD
SIN - IAH,YYZ,ORD,GRU
HKG - MEX/MIA/ATL


With cash so precious, it would be a 788ER, being a true shrink of the 789 to the 788 size. Gains commonality, gets the range you mentioned but in a smaller plane. It would need an order for say 20 to even have a chance of proceeding.
 
Sokes
Posts: 2775
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:47 am

Sokes wrote:
B787-9:
I suppose a -9LR would be without competition. But does the -9 lack range?

My bad. I knew the A350 has more payload on ultra long range. I thought that was mainly because it is the bigger plane.
Wiki range is 7635 versus 8100 nm.

I'm surprised payload can be so radical different. But then I don't expect a B787 to do all jobs.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
User avatar
flee
Posts: 1437
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:14 am

Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:49 am

Boeing can take its time to consider its next moves - the airline industry is not likely to need spanking new planes anytime soon when there are plenty of cheap secondhand ones available for the next few years. Oil prices are also at a nice low level. Boeing just need to focus on fixing the manufacturing quality issues. The engine manufacturers need to fix all the reliability issues. These are what they should prioritize for the next two years.
 
meh130
Posts: 22
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2007 12:02 pm

Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:52 pm

My guesses are:
The 777-8 may never see the light of day.
The 777-9 will likely be successful once the pandemic is over and passenger demand returns, but will not be adopted by a US airline.
A 787 Next Gen will be considered in mid-decade, mainly for the -9 and -10.
An A350neo/Next Gen will be considered starting around 2030.
The current 787-9 is replacing current 777--200ERs where its slightly lower capacity allows.
The current 787-10 is replacing current 777-200As and -200ERs with slightly more capacity where its lower range allows.
The 777-300ER replacement market, will be a battle between the A350-1000 and the 777-9, depending on individual airline capacity and range requirements.
The conceptual 777-10 stretch will not happen.
Any stretched A350 will not happen until an A350neo/Next Gen is considered around 2030.
The glut of used widebodies on the secondary market due to the pandemic will kill the new-build dedicated freighter market.
 
Sokes
Posts: 2775
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: 787 Future Prospects (787-9LR, 787-10ER, 787 New Engine)

Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:23 am

meh130 wrote:
My guesses are:
...
The 777-9 will likely be successful once the pandemic is over and passenger demand returns, but will not be adopted by a US airline.

I assume it's a nice plane for transpacific.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?

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Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos