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jetblastdubai
Posts: 2016
Joined: Sun Aug 18, 2013 10:23 am

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:09 pm

Cubsrule wrote:

What are the aircraft size limitations on M1 and M2? I believe LO used to park over there when they used 767s but that may be the largest aircraft they can accommodate.


When I worked there years ago, M1, M2 and M3 push backs all blocked taxiway B (outer) regardless of the A/C size. Not sure if the restriction has changed or not but it was a real inconvenience for the tower and any A/C trying to get over the B bridge on the way to Terminal 1 or any north side runway or parking spot. With the new configuration and a lot more departures from the 27s, ATC would probably prefer as few as possible pushes from M1-M3. Granted, WN pushes are much faster than most any of the foreign carriers that used to park on those gates but if push backs happen multiple times per hour, it could get real old, real fast.

LO and AA used to put 762s on M2 -M3 routinely although not sure about M1.
 
WNCrew
Posts: 1001
Joined: Tue Jun 06, 2006 11:22 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:18 am

Flflyer83 wrote:
WNCrew wrote:
737MAX7 wrote:


I will say I experience the most consistency, the cleanest aircraft, and the best overall service (including appearance standards) in our contract stations.


Aircraft cleaning is contract across the board. WN hasn’t has “in house” RONn cleaners in many, many years.


Nonetheless....in every way.. my point stands.
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6339
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:34 am

Sooner787 wrote:
ScottB wrote:
GreenCountry wrote:

Doubtful. It is my understanding that while Southwest indeed lobbied vigorously against an earlier attempt to bring HSR to Texas (back in the early 90s), they have not done so this time around. (in fact, I think they have been supportive.) They do not have the DAL-HOU frequencies they used to have and that route does not have the level of importance to them that it formerly had.


I don't see how Texas Central ever makes a dime. They estimate that infrastructure costs for the project will be $20 billion. Annual debt service at 3% would be $600 million/year. The total annual revenue for air travel between DAL/DFW and HOU/IAH as of 2019 was a bit under $200 million. They'd have to carry over 3x the current air traffic -- at the current fare levels -- to pay off debt at a number I deliberately lowballed.

And since public transit is crap in both Houston & Dallas, you still need a car on either end. Ride share can help, but at some point you're just better-off taking your own car.


Driving I-45 between DAL and HOU is becoming a nightmare. Not uncommon to run into heavy traffic northbound
out of H-town and not be able to get above 55 mph until you're past Huntsville. I live in DFW but have family in IAH,
so I'm definitely going to give the HSR a try :)


If I’m going anywhere west of West of Loop 12, I’ll do 290 to highway 6 to 35
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
Silver1SWA
Posts: 4749
Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2004 6:11 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:43 am

WNCrew wrote:
Flflyer83 wrote:
WNCrew wrote:

I will say I experience the most consistency, the cleanest aircraft, and the best overall service (including appearance standards) in our contract stations.


Aircraft cleaning is contract across the board. WN hasn’t has “in house” RONn cleaners in many, many years.


Nonetheless....in every way.. my point stands.


Aww feelin so much love around here. :couple:

Now excuse me while I retire for the night under the bus.
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
DaCubbyBearBar
Posts: 197
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2008 12:31 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:10 pm

Well this has devolved nicely in to what is the worst neighborhood to drive through and union contracts.... C’mon
I am me and no one else...so my opinions are mine
 
SRQLOT
Posts: 586
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:05 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:52 pm

jetblastdubai wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

What are the aircraft size limitations on M1 and M2? I believe LO used to park over there when they used 767s but that may be the largest aircraft they can accommodate.


When I worked there years ago, M1, M2 and M3 push backs all blocked taxiway B (outer) regardless of the A/C size. Not sure if the restriction has changed or not but it was a real inconvenience for the tower and any A/C trying to get over the B bridge on the way to Terminal 1 or any north side runway or parking spot. With the new configuration and a lot more departures from the 27s, ATC would probably prefer as few as possible pushes from M1-M3. Granted, WN pushes are much faster than most any of the foreign carriers that used to park on those gates but if push backs happen multiple times per hour, it could get real old, real fast.

LO and AA used to put 762s on M2 -M3 routinely although not sure about M1.


LOT used M1 too, always enjoyed seeing them when picking up family especially if they had 2 at both first gates.
LO LH CL BA AZ WN UA DL AA B6 NK G4 F9
717 733/7/8/9/M8 744 752/3 763 772 788 319/20/21 332/3 M90 RJ85 CR9 Q400 E70/75/95 (PA28,152)
 
elbandgeek
Posts: 462
Joined: Wed Jun 25, 2008 8:26 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Sun Oct 18, 2020 1:03 am

SRQLOT wrote:
jetblastdubai wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

What are the aircraft size limitations on M1 and M2? I believe LO used to park over there when they used 767s but that may be the largest aircraft they can accommodate.


When I worked there years ago, M1, M2 and M3 push backs all blocked taxiway B (outer) regardless of the A/C size. Not sure if the restriction has changed or not but it was a real inconvenience for the tower and any A/C trying to get over the B bridge on the way to Terminal 1 or any north side runway or parking spot. With the new configuration and a lot more departures from the 27s, ATC would probably prefer as few as possible pushes from M1-M3. Granted, WN pushes are much faster than most any of the foreign carriers that used to park on those gates but if push backs happen multiple times per hour, it could get real old, real fast.

LO and AA used to put 762s on M2 -M3 routinely although not sure about M1.


LOT used M1 too, always enjoyed seeing them when picking up family especially if they had 2 at both first gates.


At some point during the expansion, I believe they're planning to reconfigure the low M gates from 5 widebody to 7 or 8 narrowbody ones for when all the non-UA/AA domestic carriers move over. Is it possible they're planning on doing that sooner rather than when the extension is done, because that could affect how they're fitting WN in.
 
Lootess
Posts: 602
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 6:15 am

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:38 am

The outcomes of not wanting to do furloughs. When you have extra staff and plane capacity you gotta be hitting the dartboard where to send them.

WN ditched the LCC status when they abandoned the whole 'well we don't want to fly there because it hurts our turnaround times'. Now they have plenty of time to turnaround in IAH, and ORD.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5106
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:11 am

flyingclrs727 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:

Yes, but AA is in a very precarious situation at the moment, and the gate lease at ORD is going to require a certain amount of usage in order to maintain gates. WN likely will only offer token service to start, but make no mistake, AA is the biggest loser here.


I wonder if ORD could become WN's major Chicago connection airport rather than MDW? ORD could allow every variant if the 737 to operate, while MDW would have problems with any 737 larger than a 737-8. If AA were eliminated or much reduced at ORD, WN could make ORD another DEN in their system.

Here is what I don't understand. Why on EARTH would American just give up their Terminal for Southwest? Would Southwest do any such thing for American at DEN? You KNOW they Wouldn't! ORD has HUGE terminal expansion plans off of terminal 5 and Later off of terminal 1. If there isn't room Now? There will be in the near future. Will it be enough for Southwest to leave Midway? I doubt it in the near term.
 
KarlB737
Posts: 2924
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2004 9:51 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:50 am

United1 wrote:
I would be surprised if UA launched MDW flights but stranger things could happen


What if United added flights such as MDW to LGA. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
 
775899
Posts: 1033
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:09 am

strfyr51 wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
I wonder if ORD could become WN's major Chicago connection airport rather than MDW? ORD could allow every variant if the 737 to operate, while MDW would have problems with any 737 larger than a 737-8. If AA were eliminated or much reduced at ORD, WN could make ORD another DEN in their system.

Here is what I don't understand. Why on EARTH would American just give up their Terminal for Southwest? Would Southwest do any such thing for American at DEN? You KNOW they Wouldn't! ORD has HUGE terminal expansion plans off of terminal 5 and Later off of terminal 1. If there isn't room Now? There will be in the near future. Will it be enough for Southwest to leave Midway? I doubt it in the near term.


WN isn’t going to move their MDW operation to ORD, but their entrance will hurt AA as their ORD hub is going to be weaker coming out of this. Like I said before, the only way WN would even consider moving is if AA either dehubs ORD or goes out of business entirely (neither one is likely). And even if AA pulled down their ORD hub, it isn’t likely WN would move in because UA would most definitely snatch up everything to expand their hub into a megahub in the class of ATL.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 4057
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:33 am

BNAMealer wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
I wonder if ORD could become WN's major Chicago connection airport rather than MDW? ORD could allow every variant if the 737 to operate, while MDW would have problems with any 737 larger than a 737-8. If AA were eliminated or much reduced at ORD, WN could make ORD another DEN in their system.

Here is what I don't understand. Why on EARTH would American just give up their Terminal for Southwest? Would Southwest do any such thing for American at DEN? You KNOW they Wouldn't! ORD has HUGE terminal expansion plans off of terminal 5 and Later off of terminal 1. If there isn't room Now? There will be in the near future. Will it be enough for Southwest to leave Midway? I doubt it in the near term.


WN isn’t going to move their MDW operation to ORD, but their entrance will hurt AA as their ORD hub is going to be weaker coming out of this. Like I said before, the only way WN would even consider moving is if AA either dehubs ORD or goes out of business entirely (neither one is likely). And even if AA pulled down their ORD hub, it isn’t likely WN would move in because UA would most definitely snatch up everything to expand their hub into a megahub in the class of ATL.


I don't know why we are assuming this is going to have such an impact upon AA. AA and UA have been matching WN's MDW fares at ORD for decades so I don't see how this is going to a big deal. No one is afraid of WN anymore.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 9339
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:01 pm

KarlB737 wrote:
United1 wrote:
I would be surprised if UA launched MDW flights but stranger things could happen


What if United added flights such as MDW to LGA. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.


I would call that pretty unlikely. UA would be diminishing both the ORD hub and the EWR hub with such a move. (I'll repeat: I really think WN is doing this as an O&D play in contrast to UA's hub ops.)

For example, let's say that UA's service CHI-NYC is a 739 ORD-EWR.
Then they add an E75 MDW-LGA.

The problem isn't just the higher CASM from the E75 necessitating higher avg fares on the MDW-LGA segment, but they will likely pull some demand off the ORD-EWR segment, calling for that to be downgauged, too, and living with the higher CASM of a (say) 738 or A320 vs. the 739 on ORD-EWR.
 
dbo861
Posts: 1068
Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 2:20 am

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:30 pm

I’m not sure WN wants to get into the ORD-LGA game, nor do they have the available LGA slots to put up a meaningful fight against the hourly flights on DL, UA, and AA. I picked a random day in March, and between the big 3 there are 44 flights each way between LGA and ORD. But what do I know..
 
bob75013
Posts: 1049
Joined: Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:05 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:07 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
Here is what I don't understand. Why on EARTH would American just give up their Terminal for Southwest? Would Southwest do any such thing for American at DEN? You KNOW they Wouldn't! ORD has HUGE terminal expansion plans off of terminal 5 and Later off of terminal 1. If there isn't room Now? There will be in the near future. Will it be enough for Southwest to leave Midway? I doubt it in the near term.


WN isn’t going to move their MDW operation to ORD, but their entrance will hurt AA as their ORD hub is going to be weaker coming out of this. Like I said before, the only way WN would even consider moving is if AA either dehubs ORD or goes out of business entirely (neither one is likely). And even if AA pulled down their ORD hub, it isn’t likely WN would move in because UA would most definitely snatch up everything to expand their hub into a megahub in the class of ATL.


I don't know why we are assuming this is going to have such an impact upon AA. AA and UA have been matching WN's MDW fares at ORD for decades so I don't see how this is going to a big deal. No one is afraid of WN anymore.


Perhaps because customers who might not want to get to MDW to take a WN flight might want to do so at ORD.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 4057
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:29 pm

bob75013 wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:

WN isn’t going to move their MDW operation to ORD, but their entrance will hurt AA as their ORD hub is going to be weaker coming out of this. Like I said before, the only way WN would even consider moving is if AA either dehubs ORD or goes out of business entirely (neither one is likely). And even if AA pulled down their ORD hub, it isn’t likely WN would move in because UA would most definitely snatch up everything to expand their hub into a megahub in the class of ATL.


I don't know why we are assuming this is going to have such an impact upon AA. AA and UA have been matching WN's MDW fares at ORD for decades so I don't see how this is going to a big deal. No one is afraid of WN anymore.


Perhaps because customers who might not want to get to MDW to take a WN flight might want to do so at ORD.


They are really going to choose WN's 12 flights over AA's 500?
 
775899
Posts: 1033
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:46 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:

I don't know why we are assuming this is going to have such an impact upon AA. AA and UA have been matching WN's MDW fares at ORD for decades so I don't see how this is going to a big deal. No one is afraid of WN anymore.


Perhaps because customers who might not want to get to MDW to take a WN flight might want to do so at ORD.


They are really going to choose WN's 12 flights over AA's 500?


For some people, yes. The reason they don't fly WN now is because MDW is inconvenient for a vast portion of the north and western suburbs. This opens up a lot of new possibilities. And most of those 500 AA flights are on RJ's, compared to WN which is all 737. With rare exceptions, mainline > RJ.
 
usflyer msp
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Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:28 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
bob75013 wrote:

Perhaps because customers who might not want to get to MDW to take a WN flight might want to do so at ORD.


They are really going to choose WN's 12 flights over AA's 500?


For some people, yes. The reason they don't fly WN now is because MDW is inconvenient for a vast portion of the north and western suburbs. This opens up a lot of new possibilities. And most of those 500 AA flights are on RJ's, compared to WN which is all 737. With rare exceptions, mainline > RJ.


I am aware of that. Anet folks are not typical travellers - most people are not going to choose a likely connection on WN over a nonstop on AA, even if it is on an E75 (which is more comfortable than a WN 737 anyway).
 
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drerx7
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Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:34 pm

I'd have to disagree. There is a huge population that won't go if WN doesn't fly there. Its also not like AA has a stellar product. Perception is also reality, WN 737 is bigger than an EJet which to the non a.net crowd means better.
HOUSTON, TEXAS
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 2374
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:16 pm

WN flying to MIA,IAH,ORD In addition to FLL,HOU and MDW is no different that WN flying to LGB,ONT,BUR,SNA in addition to LAX or MHT,PVD and In addition to BOS. WN in essence filling the Void for it's growing marketshare of passenger that don't want to fly to the alternate airport. This is Like the shift that happened in Europe a few years ago more competition cause the king of alt airports Ryan air to refocus on cities main airports. It's just the evolution of the market with or without the pandemic. Allegiant as an example always wanted Gary and Rockford as the Chicago Alternative airports but even there ULCC cost in a highly competitive environment caused them to start adding bigger cities like MDW. HERB always said you evolve or you die. This is just evolution in the here and now. WN Is never going to de thorn the mega airlines didn't work at PHL or later at EWR. But It will continue to make moves to stay profitable.
Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
usflyer msp
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Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:41 pm

drerx7 wrote:
I'd have to disagree. There is a huge population that won't go if WN doesn't fly there.


That is a myth, especially in Chicago.
 
EssentialBusDC
Posts: 170
Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:06 am

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:42 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
There wouldn't be any flights anywhere maximum gross weight to any airport in the contiguous US. Still the rotation angle on the ground would be quite limited with a 737-9 or -10.


The taller gear of the -10 is supposed to mitigate that issue. There are over 500 739 and 739ERs in service. They are flown competently every day. WN pilots can be trained to pay attention to departure angle, too. ;)


It’s not about pilot competency. It’s the airframe that’s the problem. United flies 737-900’s all over its system, except for “short” runway airports like DCA (LGA was prohibited for a while but I seem to recall they finally approved it but not sure how often they did). SNA is way out of the picture as an option. Runway length (both for takeoff and landing) severely impacts the larger 737’s. And Midway is 500+ feet shorter then either LGA or DCA. And that’s before you factor in any bad weather and runway conditions.

Look at the declared landing distances available at MDW. Only one runway is above 6000’ and just barely. The other three are under 6000’. https://www.airnav.com/airport/KMDW

And here is an actual calculation done by Bellingham Airport. Midway is even shorter so the restrictions would be worse. So unless SWA is ok with a big weight restriction (limiting passengers carried) and or range limit (Limiting the fuel to carry max passengers) on the flights offered, a 737-900 or larger 737 is not really feasible at MDW. Might as well just keep flying the 737-800.


https://www.portofbellingham.com/Docume ... 206?bidId=
 
DEN1895
Posts: 260
Joined: Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:21 am

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:42 pm

An interesting article came out today about Southwest evolving network and how it supports the new city adds:
https://www.flydataguy.com/2020/10/whats-southwests-network-strategy.html?m=1
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
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Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:11 pm

737MAX7 wrote:
But hey I’m supposed to take a paycut

WN has a choice, find new routes to return to the good times or downsize dramatically. I feel for those taking paycuts. This is unlikely to be a normal recovery.

IAH and ORD will probably allow another dozen aircraft to be flown close enough to break even to save, I estimate, 300 to 500 jobs at WN.

Lightsaber
5 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
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Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:13 pm

EssentialBusDC wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
There wouldn't be any flights anywhere maximum gross weight to any airport in the contiguous US. Still the rotation angle on the ground would be quite limited with a 737-9 or -10.


The taller gear of the -10 is supposed to mitigate that issue. There are over 500 739 and 739ERs in service. They are flown competently every day. WN pilots can be trained to pay attention to departure angle, too. ;)


It’s not about pilot competency. It’s the airframe that’s the problem. United flies 737-900’s all over its system, except for “short” runway airports like DCA (LGA was prohibited for a while but I seem to recall they finally approved it but not sure how often they did). SNA is way out of the picture as an option. Runway length (both for takeoff and landing) severely impacts the larger 737’s. And Midway is 500+ feet shorter then either LGA or DCA. And that’s before you factor in any bad weather and runway conditions.

Look at the declared landing distances available at MDW. Only one runway is above 6000’ and just barely. The other three are under 6000’. https://www.airnav.com/airport/KMDW

And here is an actual calculation done by Bellingham Airport. Midway is even shorter so the restrictions would be worse. So unless SWA is ok with a big weight restriction (limiting passengers carried) and or range limit (Limiting the fuel to carry max passengers) on the flights offered, a 737-900 or larger 737 is not really feasible at MDW. Might as well just keep flying the 737-800.


https://www.portofbellingham.com/Docume ... 206?bidId=

The -9 with the -10 gear is supposed to solve the problem. It should have as good or better shortfield than the -8.

Lightsaber
5 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
EssentialBusDC
Posts: 170
Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:06 am

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:28 pm

lightsaber wrote:
EssentialBusDC wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

The taller gear of the -10 is supposed to mitigate that issue. There are over 500 739 and 739ERs in service. They are flown competently every day. WN pilots can be trained to pay attention to departure angle, too. ;)


It’s not about pilot competency. It’s the airframe that’s the problem. United flies 737-900’s all over its system, except for “short” runway airports like DCA (LGA was prohibited for a while but I seem to recall they finally approved it but not sure how often they did). SNA is way out of the picture as an option. Runway length (both for takeoff and landing) severely impacts the larger 737’s. And Midway is 500+ feet shorter then either LGA or DCA. And that’s before you factor in any bad weather and runway conditions.

Look at the declared landing distances available at MDW. Only one runway is above 6000’ and just barely. The other three are under 6000’. https://www.airnav.com/airport/KMDW

And here is an actual calculation done by Bellingham Airport. Midway is even shorter so the restrictions would be worse. So unless SWA is ok with a big weight restriction (limiting passengers carried) and or range limit (Limiting the fuel to carry max passengers) on the flights offered, a 737-900 or larger 737 is not really feasible at MDW. Might as well just keep flying the 737-800.


https://www.portofbellingham.com/Docume ... 206?bidId=

The -9 with the -10 gear is supposed to solve the problem. It should have as good or better shortfield than the -8.

Lightsaber

Has Boeing actually proposed changing the -9 to having the-10 gear? The gear change for the -10 helps for rotation angles takeoffs, but not for landings.
 
YoungDon
Posts: 654
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Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:16 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
drerx7 wrote:
I'd have to disagree. There is a huge population that won't go if WN doesn't fly there.


That is a myth, especially in Chicago.


I have two family members that fly only WN and generally won't fly anyone else absent extenuating circumstances. We had to beg and plead my aunt to get onto Delta Connection to make her brother's 85th birthday party 30 miles north of HPN. She refused for a while but eventually relented (and hated it, as she will STILL tell you lol).

Southwest definitely has a hold on some folks.
 
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drerx7
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Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:45 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
drerx7 wrote:
I'd have to disagree. There is a huge population that won't go if WN doesn't fly there.


That is a myth, especially in Chicago.

We have to agree to disagree.
HOUSTON, TEXAS
 
775899
Posts: 1033
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:26 am

YoungDon wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
drerx7 wrote:
I'd have to disagree. There is a huge population that won't go if WN doesn't fly there.


That is a myth, especially in Chicago.


I have two family members that fly only WN and generally won't fly anyone else absent extenuating circumstances. We had to beg and plead my aunt to get onto Delta Connection to make her brother's 85th birthday party 30 miles north of HPN. She refused for a while but eventually relented (and hated it, as she will STILL tell you lol).

Southwest definitely has a hold on some folks.


Just curious, is there a particular reason why they only fly WN?

I like WN, but I do think some people hold it to a cult-like status.
 
jplatts
Posts: 4299
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Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:39 am

drerx7 wrote:
I'd have to disagree. There is a huge population that won't go if WN doesn't fly there. Its also not like AA has a stellar product. Perception is also reality, WN 737 is bigger than an EJet which to the non a.net crowd means better.


While I am a big fan on WN, I have flown out of DFW on AA, DL, F9, and VX. I have also flown to places that aren't served by WN such as TVC, and I have also flown on AA, DL, and F9 DFW-CVG nonstop flights prior to WN's entry into CVG.

I am certainly willing to fly on airlines other than WN if I needed to travel to a destination that isn't served by WN.
 
ScottB
Posts: 7316
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:42 am

usflyer msp wrote:
am aware of that. Anet folks are not typical travellers - most people are not going to choose a likely connection on WN over a nonstop on AA, even if it is on an E75 (which is more comfortable than a WN 737 anyway).


Well, an AA Oasis 737 is certainly not more comfortable than a WN 737.

But WN's primary target in serving ORD and IAH probably isn't connecting traffic, either. If I had to venture a guess, I'd say WN's most likely destinations from ORD will be BWI, DEN, DAL, LAS, MCO, and PHX. They're all in the top 15 CHI O&D markets and most have a decent component of leisure traffic. Also, serving ORD isn't just about Chicago-based travelers -- it's also about serving customers in their large markets who would prefer to use WN but were perhaps taking AA or UA because the choice of airport was important (this can also be said about IAH).
 
jayunited
Posts: 3369
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:14 pm

ScottB wrote:
But WN's primary target in serving ORD and IAH probably isn't connecting traffic, either. If I had to venture a guess, I'd say WN's most likely destinations from ORD will be BWI, DEN, DAL, LAS, MCO, and PHX. They're all in the top 15 CHI O&D markets and most have a decent component of leisure traffic. Also, serving ORD isn't just about Chicago-based travelers -- it's also about serving customers in their large markets who would prefer to use WN but were perhaps taking AA or UA because the choice of airport was important (this can also be said about IAH).



I don't understand why people insist on making this assertion about airport choice or people on the north side, Northern and Western suburbs don't use MDW and that people on the south side, South, Southwest and Northwest Indiana only use MDW. If this assertion were true then what you are also saying is the bulk of Chicagoans who use ORD only come from points north of downtown and the from the Western suburbs north to Wisconsin. There are a lot of people who live on the southside of the city, people who live in the South suburbs, Southwest suburbs, and Northwest Indiana who fly out of ORD on domestic flights. The same is true of MDW, Southwest's appeal extends far beyond downtown Chicago people travel from all over the Chicagoland region to MDW to fly on WN. Both airports are easily accessible no matter the mode of transportation a person uses to access the airport.

If WN wants to come to ORD they are more than welcome but this isn't about them wanting to reach passengers who refused to fly WN because they didn't want to drive or take the train to MDW. One thing Chicago and the entire Chicagoland region has gotten right is both of our airports are easily accessible. (For people really familiar with Chicago and the battle for a third airpot they know accessibility is one of the main sticking points over Petone.) Depending on where you live in the Northern or Western suburbs you don't even need to drive through the city (I-90/94) to reach MDW there are several expressways that link up with I-55 to get you MDW.

Both airports have crossover appeal and the facts are even though WN is coming to ORD they will not have sizable operation any time soon even at T5. I think everyone is focusing on the fact the city is adding 6 or 7 new gates to T5 which is great. However what people are forgetting is until T2 is torn down and the new World Terminal is built T5 will continue to be the only international terminal at ORD. In addition to handling all the international inbounds at some point DL will have to move their entire ORD operation to T5 for T2 to be demolished. International traffic is down now, but come 2022 I think most airlines are expecting to see measurable increasing in international demand especially if there is a vaccine which has been distributed world wide. I honestly think until the World Terminal is built WN's may not be able to operate any flights out of ORD between the hours of 11a.m. through 7p.m. especially during the spring/summer travel period. Once Delta move into T5 and as travel recovers worldwide, T5 will become a traffic jam all over again until United/Star and AA/OneWorld make their exit for the new T2 World Terminal.

People keep trying to make this about AA and UA when the truth is it is in the beginning as travel recovers it will be more about Delta. Delta already runs a pretty sizable operation out of ORD. Delta already occupies I believe 7 or 8 gates at out of T2. Although terminal 5 is being expanded the city is only adding 6 or 7 gates and yes the low M gates will be reconfigured. However at the end of the day T5 will go from 21 total gates today to a total of either 27 or 28 total gates when construction is complete. I believe ORD has around 4 maybe 5 remote parking gates at T5 where aircraft are towed if they have a long layover. Both AA and UA between the hours of 10a.m. through 8p.m. have a 1 hour block time agreement with the city. This means an AA or UA International inbound can occupy a T5 gate for up to 1 hour before penalties are applied. (United was the worst offender which is why the city now charges by the minute if an AA or UA aircraft is still on the gate after 1 hour.)

I think the two biggest factors that will effect the size of WN's operation at ORD especially in the beginning are the international outlook (how quickly the city expect International traffic to recover at T5) and secondly the cities lease agreement with Delta Airlines. More specifically how many gates at T5 does Delta's lease guarantee them access to until demolition and construction are complete on the new T2 World Terminal.
 
jplatts
Posts: 4299
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:57 pm

jayunited wrote:
Both airports have crossover appeal and the facts are even though WN is coming to ORD they will not have sizable operation any time soon even at T5. I think everyone is focusing on the fact the city is adding 6 or 7 new gates to T5 which is great. However what people are forgetting is until T2 is torn down and the new World Terminal is built T5 will continue to be the only international terminal at ORD. In addition to handling all the international inbounds at some point DL will have to move their entire ORD operation to T5 for T2 to be demolished. International traffic is down now, but come 2022 I think most airlines are expecting to see measurable increasing in international demand especially if there is a vaccine which has been distributed world wide. I honestly think until the World Terminal is built WN's may not be able to operate any flights out of ORD between the hours of 11a.m. through 7p.m. especially during the spring/summer travel period. Once Delta move into T5 and as travel recovers worldwide, T5 will become a traffic jam all over again until United/Star and AA/OneWorld make their exit for the new T2 World Terminal.

People keep trying to make this about AA and UA when the truth is it is in the beginning as travel recovers it will be more about Delta. Delta already runs a pretty sizable operation out of ORD. Delta already occupies I believe 7 or 8 gates at out of T2. Although terminal 5 is being expanded the city is only adding 6 or 7 gates and yes the low M gates will be reconfigured. However at the end of the day T5 will go from 21 total gates today to a total of either 27 or 28 total gates when construction is complete. I believe ORD has around 4 maybe 5 remote parking gates at T5 where aircraft are towed if they have a long layover. Both AA and UA between the hours of 10a.m. through 8p.m. have a 1 hour block time agreement with the city. This means an AA or UA International inbound can occupy a T5 gate for up to 1 hour before penalties are applied. (United was the worst offender which is why the city now charges by the minute if an AA or UA aircraft is still on the gate after 1 hour.)

I think the two biggest factors that will effect the size of WN's operation at ORD especially in the beginning are the international outlook (how quickly the city expect International traffic to recover at T5) and secondly the cities lease agreement with Delta Airlines. More specifically how many gates at T5 does Delta's lease guarantee them access to until demolition and construction are complete on the new T2 World Terminal.


DL already serves ATL, DTW, and MSP nonstop from MDW in addition to ORD, and DL can also move some of its ORD-BOS/LGA/SLC nonstop flights over to MDW if DL will be facing gate space issues at ORD during the demolition of the existing T2 and construction of the new T2 world terminal. There are also some DL FF's in the BOS, NYC, and SLC markets who would be willing to fly into MDW on DL if DL adds MDW-BOS/LGA/SLC nonstop service. DL can also offer connections through LGA and SLC to some destinations that aren't served by WN.

There are also a few airports such as AUS, DAL, LAX, and SEA where WN operated 10 or more flights per day per gate prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. WN knows how to maximize gate utilization as WN has had to do so at a few airports that are already served by WN such as AUS, DAL, LAX, and SEA. WN will probably do the same at ORD if WN will be facing gate space issues at ORD.
 
jcwr56
Posts: 1031
Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2012 11:36 am

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:58 pm

jayunited wrote:
ScottB wrote:
But WN's primary target in serving ORD and IAH probably isn't connecting traffic, either. If I had to venture a guess, I'd say WN's most likely destinations from ORD will be BWI, DEN, DAL, LAS, MCO, and PHX. They're all in the top 15 CHI O&D markets and most have a decent component of leisure traffic. Also, serving ORD isn't just about Chicago-based travelers -- it's also about serving customers in their large markets who would prefer to use WN but were perhaps taking AA or UA because the choice of airport was important (this can also be said about IAH).



I don't understand why people insist on making this assertion about airport choice or people on the north side, Northern and Western suburbs don't use MDW and that people on the south side, South, Southwest and Northwest Indiana only use MDW. If this assertion were true then what you are also saying is the bulk of Chicagoans who use ORD only come from points north of downtown and the from the Western suburbs north to Wisconsin. There are a lot of people who live on the southside of the city, people who live in the South suburbs, Southwest suburbs, and Northwest Indiana who fly out of ORD on domestic flights. The same is true of MDW, Southwest's appeal extends far beyond downtown Chicago people travel from all over the Chicagoland region to MDW to fly on WN. Both airports are easily accessible no matter the mode of transportation a person uses to access the airport.

If WN wants to come to ORD they are more than welcome but this isn't about them wanting to reach passengers who refused to fly WN because they didn't want to drive or take the train to MDW. One thing Chicago and the entire Chicagoland region has gotten right is both of our airports are easily accessible. (For people really familiar with Chicago and the battle for a third airpot they know accessibility is one of the main sticking points over Petone.) Depending on where you live in the Northern or Western suburbs you don't even need to drive through the city (I-90/94) to reach MDW there are several expressways that link up with I-55 to get you MDW.

Both airports have crossover appeal and the facts are even though WN is coming to ORD they will not have sizable operation any time soon even at T5. I think everyone is focusing on the fact the city is adding 6 or 7 new gates to T5 which is great. However what people are forgetting is until T2 is torn down and the new World Terminal is built T5 will continue to be the only international terminal at ORD. In addition to handling all the international inbounds at some point DL will have to move their entire ORD operation to T5 for T2 to be demolished. International traffic is down now, but come 2022 I think most airlines are expecting to see measurable increasing in international demand especially if there is a vaccine which has been distributed world wide. I honestly think until the World Terminal is built WN's may not be able to operate any flights out of ORD between the hours of 11a.m. through 7p.m. especially during the spring/summer travel period. Once Delta move into T5 and as travel recovers worldwide, T5 will become a traffic jam all over again until United/Star and AA/OneWorld make their exit for the new T2 World Terminal.

People keep trying to make this about AA and UA when the truth is it is in the beginning as travel recovers it will be more about Delta. Delta already runs a pretty sizable operation out of ORD. Delta already occupies I believe 7 or 8 gates at out of T2. Although terminal 5 is being expanded the city is only adding 6 or 7 gates and yes the low M gates will be reconfigured. However at the end of the day T5 will go from 21 total gates today to a total of either 27 or 28 total gates when construction is complete. I believe ORD has around 4 maybe 5 remote parking gates at T5 where aircraft are towed if they have a long layover. Both AA and UA between the hours of 10a.m. through 8p.m. have a 1 hour block time agreement with the city. This means an AA or UA International inbound can occupy a T5 gate for up to 1 hour before penalties are applied. (United was the worst offender which is why the city now charges by the minute if an AA or UA aircraft is still on the gate after 1 hour.)

I think the two biggest factors that will effect the size of WN's operation at ORD especially in the beginning are the international outlook (how quickly the city expect International traffic to recover at T5) and secondly the cities lease agreement with Delta Airlines. More specifically how many gates at T5 does Delta's lease guarantee them access to until demolition and construction are complete on the new T2 World Terminal.


DL gating has already been taken into consideration for T5 and covered with lease. Basically, the expansion to the east covers the gates being taken over by DL, although the new gates will be able to accommodate larger aircraft it's a net zero on actual common use gates at ORD. At some point, a forced accommodation will happen placing a domestic common use carrier or common use international departure on either AA or UA preferential use gate before any new domestic common use gates are allocated.
 
ScottB
Posts: 7316
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:01 pm

jayunited wrote:
I don't understand why people insist on making this assertion about airport choice or people on the north side, Northern and Western suburbs don't use MDW and that people on the south side, South, Southwest and Northwest Indiana only use MDW. If this assertion were true then what you are also saying is the bulk of Chicagoans who use ORD only come from points north of downtown and the from the Western suburbs north to Wisconsin. There are a lot of people who live on the southside of the city, people who live in the South suburbs, Southwest suburbs, and Northwest Indiana who fly out of ORD on domestic flights. The same is true of MDW, Southwest's appeal extends far beyond downtown Chicago people travel from all over the Chicagoland region to MDW to fly on WN. Both airports are easily accessible no matter the mode of transportation a person uses to access the airport.


I'm not sure why you inferred that the argument is that no one on the north/west side of Chicago will use WN because they don't serve ORD. Obviously some people do drive or take the train to MDW. But there likely are a decent chunk of people who wouldn't take WN simply because airport choice was more important than airline choice. Why do you think they serve five airports in the L.A. Basin and three in the S.F. Bay Area? Why do you think DL serves DAL, HOU, and MDW? Why do you think WN is adding MIA?

There are some people who will now consider WN because they offer service to ORD and IAH. Maybe saving money on a bag fee isn't worth it to someone if they have to pay more for the Uber to the airport. Maybe someone is getting picked up by a family member and ORD is more convenient for them. Of course this is about airport choice and convenience. WN will almost certainly continue to be much, much larger at MDW but they're likely to serve a handful of key markets from ORD.

jayunited wrote:
I think the two biggest factors that will effect the size of WN's operation at ORD especially in the beginning are the international outlook (how quickly the city expect International traffic to recover at T5) and secondly the cities lease agreement with Delta Airlines. More specifically how many gates at T5 does Delta's lease guarantee them access to until demolition and construction are complete on the new T2 World Terminal.


Presumably WN has done its homework with CDA. It's not like they don't have a working relationship with the City. I think they know what they can expect with respect to gate availability and other real estate. Given the wreckage created by the pandemic response, I believe that gate availability at T5 is incredibly unlikely to be a problem until at least 2022 or 2023. And if the air travel market has recovered sufficiently by then to put a squeeze on gates for WN at ORD, that's not a bad problem for them to have.
 
775899
Posts: 1033
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:56 pm

jayunited wrote:
ScottB wrote:
But WN's primary target in serving ORD and IAH probably isn't connecting traffic, either. If I had to venture a guess, I'd say WN's most likely destinations from ORD will be BWI, DEN, DAL, LAS, MCO, and PHX. They're all in the top 15 CHI O&D markets and most have a decent component of leisure traffic. Also, serving ORD isn't just about Chicago-based travelers -- it's also about serving customers in their large markets who would prefer to use WN but were perhaps taking AA or UA because the choice of airport was important (this can also be said about IAH).



I don't understand why people insist on making this assertion about airport choice or people on the north side, Northern and Western suburbs don't use MDW and that people on the south side, South, Southwest and Northwest Indiana only use MDW. If this assertion were true then what you are also saying is the bulk of Chicagoans who use ORD only come from points north of downtown and the from the Western suburbs north to Wisconsin. There are a lot of people who live on the southside of the city, people who live in the South suburbs, Southwest suburbs, and Northwest Indiana who fly out of ORD on domestic flights. The same is true of MDW, Southwest's appeal extends far beyond downtown Chicago people travel from all over the Chicagoland region to MDW to fly on WN. Both airports are easily accessible no matter the mode of transportation a person uses to access the airport.

If WN wants to come to ORD they are more than welcome but this isn't about them wanting to reach passengers who refused to fly WN because they didn't want to drive or take the train to MDW. One thing Chicago and the entire Chicagoland region has gotten right is both of our airports are easily accessible. (For people really familiar with Chicago and the battle for a third airpot they know accessibility is one of the main sticking points over Petone.) Depending on where you live in the Northern or Western suburbs you don't even need to drive through the city (I-90/94) to reach MDW there are several expressways that link up with I-55 to get you MDW.

Both airports have crossover appeal and the facts are even though WN is coming to ORD they will not have sizable operation any time soon even at T5. I think everyone is focusing on the fact the city is adding 6 or 7 new gates to T5 which is great. However what people are forgetting is until T2 is torn down and the new World Terminal is built T5 will continue to be the only international terminal at ORD. In addition to handling all the international inbounds at some point DL will have to move their entire ORD operation to T5 for T2 to be demolished. International traffic is down now, but come 2022 I think most airlines are expecting to see measurable increasing in international demand especially if there is a vaccine which has been distributed world wide. I honestly think until the World Terminal is built WN's may not be able to operate any flights out of ORD between the hours of 11a.m. through 7p.m. especially during the spring/summer travel period. Once Delta move into T5 and as travel recovers worldwide, T5 will become a traffic jam all over again until United/Star and AA/OneWorld make their exit for the new T2 World Terminal.

People keep trying to make this about AA and UA when the truth is it is in the beginning as travel recovers it will be more about Delta. Delta already runs a pretty sizable operation out of ORD. Delta already occupies I believe 7 or 8 gates at out of T2. Although terminal 5 is being expanded the city is only adding 6 or 7 gates and yes the low M gates will be reconfigured. However at the end of the day T5 will go from 21 total gates today to a total of either 27 or 28 total gates when construction is complete. I believe ORD has around 4 maybe 5 remote parking gates at T5 where aircraft are towed if they have a long layover. Both AA and UA between the hours of 10a.m. through 8p.m. have a 1 hour block time agreement with the city. This means an AA or UA International inbound can occupy a T5 gate for up to 1 hour before penalties are applied. (United was the worst offender which is why the city now charges by the minute if an AA or UA aircraft is still on the gate after 1 hour.)

I think the two biggest factors that will effect the size of WN's operation at ORD especially in the beginning are the international outlook (how quickly the city expect International traffic to recover at T5) and secondly the cities lease agreement with Delta Airlines. More specifically how many gates at T5 does Delta's lease guarantee them access to until demolition and construction are complete on the new T2 World Terminal.


The question continues to remain though, is the T2 rebuild/O'Hare Global Terminal still going to break ground in 2023? There has been conflicting information regarding this. Already, it isn't even scheduled to be fully finished until 2028. If there are any delays, it is going to throw a wrench into ORD ops for the next decade.

Also, doesn't the gate utilization requirements in the new lease kick in next year (2021)? If things are still not great, certain airlines may not utilize all their gates entirely and would be forced to give up some. This is what I was trying to get at earlier about AA. Obviously, UA won't have a problem with the gate utilization requirements because ORD is much more strategically important to them. However, it is not as important for AA, and if they declare bankruptcy, they are likely going to focus on preserving their most profitable hubs of DFW/CLT/DCA the most, thus, leaving ORD vulnerable to cuts, which would cause them to lose some gates. This is why I wonder if WN can sense something is up with AA and decided that now is the time to make a move on ORD.

Lastly, I don't think DL needs that many gates for their ORD ops. They can make do with six. I wouldn't be surprised to see market such as CVG and RDU cut completely and perhaps moving their SEA flight to LAX.
 
jplatts
Posts: 4299
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:34 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
Lastly, I don't think DL needs that many gates for their ORD ops. They can make do with six. I wouldn't be surprised to see market such as CVG and RDU cut completely and perhaps moving their SEA flight to LAX.


I agree with your point, especially with DL being able to drop ORD-CVG/RDU nonstop service and add MDW-LGA/SLC nonstop service if needed.
 
jayunited
Posts: 3369
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:23 pm

jcwr56 wrote:
DL gating has already been taken into consideration for T5 and covered with lease. Basically, the expansion to the east covers the gates being taken over by DL, although the new gates will be able to accommodate larger aircraft it's a net zero on actual common use gates at ORD. At some point, a forced accommodation will happen placing a domestic common use carrier or common use international departure on either AA or UA preferential use gate before any new domestic common use gates are allocated.



The expansion to the east will be for wideobdies DL will presumably take over the low M gates which will be reconfigured to accommodate more narrow bodies. Again as it as already been discussed there are no common use gates at T1, T2 (for now) or most of T3 with the exception of the L concourse. Read the individual lease agreements between the city and both AA and UA. And both AA an dUA have a guarantee minimum number of gates for AA it is 67 and for UA it is 80. The only common use gates at ORD are located on the L concourse and terminal 5 there will be no additional common use gates at ORD until an all new T2 is built.

BNAMealer wrote:
The question continues to remain though, is the T2 rebuild/O'Hare Global Terminal still going to break ground in 2023? There has been conflicting information regarding this. Already, it isn't even scheduled to be fully finished until 2028. If there are any delays, it is going to throw a wrench into ORD ops for the next decade.

Also, doesn't the gate utilization requirements in the new lease kick in next year (2021)? If things are still not great, certain airlines may not utilize all their gates entirely and would be forced to give up some. This is what I was trying to get at earlier about AA. Obviously, UA won't have a problem with the gate utilization requirements because ORD is much more strategically important to them. However, it is not as important for AA, and if they declare bankruptcy, they are likely going to focus on preserving their most profitable hubs of DFW/CLT/DCA the most, thus, leaving ORD vulnerable to cuts, which would cause them to lose some gates. This is why I wonder if WN can sense something is up with AA and decided that now is the time to make a move on ORD.

Lastly, I don't think DL needs that many gates for their ORD ops. They can make do with six. I wouldn't be surprised to see market such as CVG and RDU cut completely and perhaps moving their SEA flight to LAX.


The new long term lease agreement went into effect in April or May of 2018 that was the date the old leases ran out.

Right now the city of Chicago is still saying they are moving forward with construction COVID has not changed anything.

jplatts wrote:

DL already serves ATL, DTW, and MSP nonstop from MDW in addition to ORD, and DL can also move some of its ORD-BOS/LGA/SLC nonstop flights over to MDW if DL will be facing gate space issues at ORD during the demolition of the existing T2 and construction of the new T2 world terminal. There are also some DL FF's in the BOS, NYC, and SLC markets who would be willing to fly into MDW on DL if DL adds MDW-BOS/LGA/SLC nonstop service. DL can also offer connections through LGA and SLC to some destinations that aren't served by WN.

There are also a few airports such as AUS, DAL, LAX, and SEA where WN operated 10 or more flights per day per gate prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. WN knows how to maximize gate utilization as WN has had to do so at a few airports that are already served by WN such as AUS, DAL, LAX, and SEA. WN will probably do the same at ORD if WN will be facing gate space issues at ORD.



Are you suggesting Delta move part of their operation to MDW just to make room for WN at ORD?

Again like I stated the problem the city has to figure out is between 2021 (when WN wants to begin operations) and 2028 when the all new T2 is supposed to be complete is how to keep T5 functional with Delta's full operation (Delta should be moving in late 2022 or early 2023) WN's operations while International traffic rebounds and doing all of this with only 27 or 28 gates. People are throwing all these suggestions out there without familiarizing themselves with the facts. Like I stated before the city is going to have to figure out how much of a rebound in international traffic ORD will see beginning with spring/summer of 2022.

I think WN will get into ORD but the probability of WN not being able to have any operations at ORD between 11a.m. and 7p.m. is a strong possibility, when you take into account that under the existing agreement which is in full effect there are no common use gates at T1, T2, or most of T3. Or when you take into account Delta Airlines entire operation is moving to T5 and they just like UA and AA already have an iron clad agreement with the city for guaranteed gates and the city still has to keep gates open at T5 to handle all the international inbounds from AA and UA as well as all the international airlines.
 
jcwr56
Posts: 1031
Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2012 11:36 am

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:53 pm

jayunited wrote:
jcwr56 wrote:
DL gating has already been taken into consideration for T5 and covered with lease. Basically, the expansion to the east covers the gates being taken over by DL, although the new gates will be able to accommodate larger aircraft it's a net zero on actual common use gates at ORD. At some point, a forced accommodation will happen placing a domestic common use carrier or common use international departure on either AA or UA preferential use gate before any new domestic common use gates are allocated.



The expansion to the east will be for wideobdies DL will presumably take over the low M gates which will be reconfigured to accommodate more narrow bodies. Again as it as already been discussed there are no common use gates at T1, T2 (for now) or most of T3 with the exception of the L concourse. Read the individual lease agreements between the city and both AA and UA. And both AA an dUA have a guarantee minimum number of gates for AA it is 67 and for UA it is 80. The only common use gates at ORD are located on the L concourse and terminal 5 there will be no additional common use gates at ORD until an all new T2 is built.

BNAMealer wrote:
The question continues to remain though, is the T2 rebuild/O'Hare Global Terminal still going to break ground in 2023? There has been conflicting information regarding this. Already, it isn't even scheduled to be fully finished until 2028. If there are any delays, it is going to throw a wrench into ORD ops for the next decade.

Also, doesn't the gate utilization requirements in the new lease kick in next year (2021)? If things are still not great, certain airlines may not utilize all their gates entirely and would be forced to give up some. This is what I was trying to get at earlier about AA. Obviously, UA won't have a problem with the gate utilization requirements because ORD is much more strategically important to them. However, it is not as important for AA, and if they declare bankruptcy, they are likely going to focus on preserving their most profitable hubs of DFW/CLT/DCA the most, thus, leaving ORD vulnerable to cuts, which would cause them to lose some gates. This is why I wonder if WN can sense something is up with AA and decided that now is the time to make a move on ORD.

Lastly, I don't think DL needs that many gates for their ORD ops. They can make do with six. I wouldn't be surprised to see market such as CVG and RDU cut completely and perhaps moving their SEA flight to LAX.


The new long term lease agreement went into effect in April or May of 2018 that was the date the old leases ran out.

Right now the city of Chicago is still saying they are moving forward with construction COVID has not changed anything.

jplatts wrote:

DL already serves ATL, DTW, and MSP nonstop from MDW in addition to ORD, and DL can also move some of its ORD-BOS/LGA/SLC nonstop flights over to MDW if DL will be facing gate space issues at ORD during the demolition of the existing T2 and construction of the new T2 world terminal. There are also some DL FF's in the BOS, NYC, and SLC markets who would be willing to fly into MDW on DL if DL adds MDW-BOS/LGA/SLC nonstop service. DL can also offer connections through LGA and SLC to some destinations that aren't served by WN.

There are also a few airports such as AUS, DAL, LAX, and SEA where WN operated 10 or more flights per day per gate prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. WN knows how to maximize gate utilization as WN has had to do so at a few airports that are already served by WN such as AUS, DAL, LAX, and SEA. WN will probably do the same at ORD if WN will be facing gate space issues at ORD.



Are you suggesting Delta move part of their operation to MDW just to make room for WN at ORD?

Again like I stated the problem the city has to figure out is between 2021 (when WN wants to begin operations) and 2028 when the all new T2 is supposed to be complete is how to keep T5 functional with Delta's full operation (Delta should be moving in late 2022 or early 2023) WN's operations while International traffic rebounds and doing all of this with only 27 or 28 gates. People are throwing all these suggestions out there without familiarizing themselves with the facts. Like I stated before the city is going to have to figure out how much of a rebound in international traffic ORD will see beginning with spring/summer of 2022.

I think WN will get into ORD but the probability of WN not being able to have any operations at ORD between 11a.m. and 7p.m. is a strong possibility, when you take into account that under the existing agreement which is in full effect there are no common use gates at T1, T2, or most of T3. Or when you take into account Delta Airlines entire operation is moving to T5 and they just like UA and AA already have an iron clad agreement with the city for guaranteed gates and the city still has to keep gates open at T5 to handle all the international inbounds from AA and UA as well as all the international airlines.


If you know the lease so well, explain Exhibit D 1.1.3.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 9339
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:25 am

jayunited wrote:
I think WN will get into ORD but the probability of WN not being able to have any operations at ORD between 11a.m. and 7p.m. is a strong possibility...


That sounds rather crippling. If the price is low enough leisure travelers will show big indifference to timing (see any Frontier or Allegiant schedule); 630AM to Orlando? Sure! Business travelers will want options. They'll find them with UA and AA -- and WN at MDW.
 
jplatts
Posts: 4299
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:20 am

jayunited wrote:
Are you suggesting Delta move part of their operation to MDW just to make room for WN at ORD?


While DL will continue to serve its ATL, DTW, MSP, LGA, JFK, and SLC hubs nonstop from ORD, I mentioned DL adding MDW-LGA/SLC nonstop service as possibilities with DL already serving both MDW and ORD and DL not having an Chicago hub.

I would also certainly expect DL to continue to maintain multiple daily nonstops to both LGA and SLC from ORD if DL does add MDW-LGA/SLC nonstop service.
 
jcwr56
Posts: 1031
Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2012 11:36 am

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:57 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
jayunited wrote:
I think WN will get into ORD but the probability of WN not being able to have any operations at ORD between 11a.m. and 7p.m. is a strong possibility...


That sounds rather crippling. If the price is low enough leisure travelers will show big indifference to timing (see any Frontier or Allegiant schedule); 630AM to Orlando? Sure! Business travelers will want options. They'll find them with UA and AA -- and WN at MDW.


And he would be wrong and we'll leave it at that.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 15001
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:18 am

jcwr56 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
jayunited wrote:
I think WN will get into ORD but the probability of WN not being able to have any operations at ORD between 11a.m. and 7p.m. is a strong possibility...


That sounds rather crippling. If the price is low enough leisure travelers will show big indifference to timing (see any Frontier or Allegiant schedule); 630AM to Orlando? Sure! Business travelers will want options. They'll find them with UA and AA -- and WN at MDW.


And he would be wrong and we'll leave it at that.


In addition to reasons related to ORD leases, that sort of situation is also very likely illegal.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
Someone83
Posts: 5183
Joined: Sun Sep 17, 2006 5:47 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:07 pm

So still no routes announcement here? Can't see anything in their Q3 press release so far?
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 9339
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:41 pm

Someone83 wrote:
So still no routes announcement here? Can't see anything in their Q3 press release so far?


Not in the 8-K filing that came out this morning. One might listen in on the earnings call at 12:30 ET today.
 
bob75013
Posts: 1049
Joined: Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:05 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:59 pm

ScottB wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
am aware of that. Anet folks are not typical travellers - most people are not going to choose a likely connection on WN over a nonstop on AA, even if it is on an E75 (which is more comfortable than a WN 737 anyway).


Well, an AA Oasis 737 is certainly not more comfortable than a WN 737.

But WN's primary target in serving ORD and IAH probably isn't connecting traffic, either. If I had to venture a guess, I'd say WN's most likely destinations from ORD will be BWI, DEN, DAL, LAS, MCO, and PHX. They're all in the top 15 CHI O&D markets and most have a decent component of leisure traffic. Also, serving ORD isn't just about Chicago-based travelers -- it's also about serving customers in their large markets who would prefer to use WN but were perhaps taking AA or UA because the choice of airport was important (this can also be said about IAH).


Agree. There are plenty of other connecting airports including MDW. WN wants to grab the O&D traffic at ORD. If it gets a few connections at ORD, so much the better.
ORD won't need connecting traffic (at least at the start of service) to be successful
 
ScottB
Posts: 7316
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:18 pm

bob75013 wrote:
Agree. There are plenty of other connecting airports including MDW. WN wants to grab the O&D traffic at ORD. If it gets a few connections at ORD, so much the better.
ORD won't need connecting traffic (at least at the start of service) to be successful


Well, my point was more that WN is probably less interested in trying to capture traffic flows like ORD-BWI-LGA, ORD-DEN-SLC, or ORD-DAL-SAT. Those help to fill the planes, but they're really more interested in passengers flying ORD-BWI, ORD-DEN, or ORD-DAL (assuming those are the markets they ultimately serve).
 
bob75013
Posts: 1049
Joined: Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:05 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:34 pm

ScottB wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
Agree. There are plenty of other connecting airports including MDW. WN wants to grab the O&D traffic at ORD. If it gets a few connections at ORD, so much the better.
ORD won't need connecting traffic (at least at the start of service) to be successful


Well, my point was more that WN is probably less interested in trying to capture traffic flows like ORD-BWI-LGA, ORD-DEN-SLC, or ORD-DAL-SAT. Those help to fill the planes, but they're really more interested in passengers flying ORD-BWI, ORD-DEN, or ORD-DAL (assuming those are the markets they ultimately serve).


We're saying the same thing.

Although I could see east/west and west/east flights timed to allow connections.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 4057
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:39 pm

bob75013 wrote:
ScottB wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
Agree. There are plenty of other connecting airports including MDW. WN wants to grab the O&D traffic at ORD. If it gets a few connections at ORD, so much the better.
ORD won't need connecting traffic (at least at the start of service) to be successful


Well, my point was more that WN is probably less interested in trying to capture traffic flows like ORD-BWI-LGA, ORD-DEN-SLC, or ORD-DAL-SAT. Those help to fill the planes, but they're really more interested in passengers flying ORD-BWI, ORD-DEN, or ORD-DAL (assuming those are the markets they ultimately serve).


We're saying the same thing.

Although I could see east/west and west/east flights timed to allow connections.


No you are not. You are talking about WN pax making connections at ORD and he is talking about WN pax originating at ORD making connections elsewhere in the system. There will be virtually none of the former and likely large amounts of the latter (although there will be significant &D pax as well).
 
jplatts
Posts: 4299
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:14 pm

WN had said in today's earnings call that one of the reasons why WN is adding service to ORD was that WN doesn't have enough room to grow in the Chicago market without serving another Chicago airport.

WN still currently has fewer daily departures out of MDW in Spring 2021 than it did in Summer 2017, with 239 daily departures out of MDW in its current Spring 2021 flight schedules compared to 265 daily departures out of MDW in Summer 2017.

Even though WN had stated that WN doesn't have enough room to grow at MDW beyond what WN had at its peak in Summer 2017, WN probably has enough room at MDW to add some more flights with WN operating fewer daily departures out of MDW than it did at its peak in Summer 2017 and with WN's plans to enter ORD.

There are also still some adds that could be made by WN at MDW such as the addition of MDW-COS/ELP/IAH/LGB/RIC/SAV nonstop service and the return of MDW-BOI/GSP/JAN/ISP/LIT/SNA/GEG/TUL nonstop service.
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