Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
flyinghippo
Topic Author
Posts: 769
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:48 am

Delta 2020 Q3 earnings thread

Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:50 pm

Delta just released their 3rd quarter earnings report. High-level summary:

Adjusted EPS: a loss of $3.30 versus an expected loss of $3
Revenue: $3.06 billion versus $3.11 billion, expected
Delta has lost more than $11 billion in the last two quarters.
The carrier cut its cash burn to $18 million a day in September from $27 million at the end of the second quarter.
Delta’s third-quarter revenue came up short of analysts’ expectations at $3.06 billion, down more than 75% from a year ago.

Delta was able to cut its daily cash burn by more than 44% from roughly $43 million during the second quarter to an average of $24 million a day. Delta got down to $18 million a day in September, an improvement but still far off its goal of breaking even by the end of the year.

Decided to retire its Boeing 767-300 ERs and 717-200s by 2025 and CRJ-200s by 2023.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/13/delta-a ... -2020.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/delta-says ... eatst_pos4
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8499
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: DL Q3 earnings thread

Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:57 pm

Total adjusted revenue of $2.6 billion declined 79 percent on 63 percent lower capacity versus prior year, led to a 52% reduction in Operating Expense. That's what happens when you don't have volume to leverage fixed expenses.

The earnings release does give a useful snapshot of fleet retirements -- all in one place:

Fleet Type, Number of Aircraft, Estimated Final Retirement During the Quarter Ended
MD-90 26 June 2020
767-300ER 7 June 2020
A320 10 June 2020
MD-88 47 June 2020
737-700 10 September 2020
777 18 December 2020
CRJ-200 125 December 2023
717 91 December 2025
767-300ER 49 December 2025
Total 383

The new aircraft deferrals reference isn't very specific:

Restructuring its Airbus and CRJ aircraft order books to better match the timing of aircraft deliveries with
network and financial needs over the next several years. The restructuring reduces aircraft purchase
commitments by more than $2 billion in 2020 and by more than $5 billion through 2022
 
AWACSooner
Posts: 2559
Joined: Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:35 am

Re: DL Q3 earnings thread

Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:38 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:

Restructuring its Airbus and CRJ aircraft order books to better match the timing of aircraft deliveries with
network and financial needs over the next several years.

They still have CRJ's on order?!?!?
 
jayunited
Posts: 3026
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: DL Q3 earnings thread

Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:43 pm

Delta's burn rate reduction is impressive to say the least.

For the entire Q3 they averaged $24 million per day, but for the month of September they got it down to $18 million per day that is an impressive number all things considered.

Total operating revenue is down 76% passenger revenue down 83% for Q3, but that is to be expected.

https://ir.delta.com/news/news-details/ ... fault.aspx
 
chonetsao
Posts: 715
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 3:55 pm

Re: DL Q3 earnings thread

Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:48 pm

I think people are more interested with the forward looking statement. The expected performance for early 2021 would be very interesting to watch.

On another hand, I feel interesting that DL will keep B767-300ER until 2025.
 
United1
Posts: 4194
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2003 9:21 am

Re: DL Q3 earnings thread

Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:50 pm

jayunited wrote:
Delta's burn rate reduction is impressive to say the least.

For the entire Q3 they averaged $24 million per day, but for the month of September they got it down to $18 million per day that is an impressive number all things considered.

Total operating revenue is down 76% passenger revenue down 83% for Q3, but that is to be expected.

https://ir.delta.com/news/news-details/ ... fault.aspx


It is an impressive feat although I do want a little more information about the cash burn number. Q2 DL excluded debt service payments from its cash burn number however it’s peers didn’t. I want to see how they are calculating their numbers.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
MohawkWeekend
Posts: 281
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

Re: DL Q3 earnings thread

Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:56 pm

Any accountants out there who can interpret the various "exclusions" in this part of the release would be appreciated -

" Total adjusted operating expense for the September quarter decreased $5.5 billion or 52 percent versus the prior year quarter excluding $3.1 billion in charges related to the voluntary separation and early retirement programs for employees, $2.2 billion in restructuring charges from fleet-related decisions, and a $1.3 billion CARES Act benefit. This performance was driven by a $1.8 billion or 78 percent reduction in fuel expense, a 75 percent reduction in maintenance expense from parking or retiring nearly 40 percent of mainline aircraft and lower volume- and revenue-related expenses. Salaries and benefits expense was down 32 percent as a result of approximately 18,000 employees electing to depart the company in addition to benefits from voluntary unpaid leaves, work hour reductions and other initiatives."
    300 319 320 321 707 717 720 727 72S 737 73S 734 735 73G 738 739 747 757 762 ARJ B11 C212 CRJ CR2 CR7 CR9 CV5 D8S DC9 D9S D94 D95 D10 DH8 DTO EMB EM2 E135 E145 E190 FH7 F28 F100 FTRIMTR HRN L10 L15 M80 M90 SF3 SWM YS11
     
    United1
    Posts: 4194
    Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2003 9:21 am

    Re: DL Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:02 pm

    MohawkWeekend wrote:
    How much CARES Act money did Delta receive? Was that included in revenue? Back that out of these numbers to see the true picture of their cash burn, no?


    Reading through their earnings release there is a section on cash burn. The number is “adjusted” with DL including CARES act money and excluding severance etc from it. It’s fine that DL did that but it’s important to keep that in mind if you are trying to do an apples to apples comparison with their peers.

    I would call the number DL put out as an operating cash burn vs total. Either way it’s an improvement from last quarter.
    I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
     
    MIflyer12
    Posts: 8499
    Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

    Re: DL Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:10 pm

    CARES Act funds are shown as 'contra-expense' - a negative line item shown as CARES Act grant recognition under Operating Expense in the Consolidated Statements of Operations.
     
    MIflyer12
    Posts: 8499
    Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

    Re: DL Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:12 pm

    AWACSooner wrote:
    MIflyer12 wrote:

    Restructuring its Airbus and CRJ aircraft order books to better match the timing of aircraft deliveries with
    network and financial needs over the next several years.

    They still have CRJ's on order?!?!?


    They had six CRJ-900s on order 12/31/19 as per the Annual Report 2/2020.
     
    MIflyer12
    Posts: 8499
    Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

    Re: DL Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:15 pm

    chonetsao wrote:
    I think people are more interested with the forward looking statement. The expected performance for early 2021 would be very interesting to watch.


    Hope for something on the earnings call, because the earnings press release/SEC filing didn't give guidance on revenue, cash burn, expense, or savings from the 17,000 headcount reduction.
     
    United857
    Posts: 116
    Joined: Fri Dec 18, 2015 12:37 am

    Re: DL Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:15 pm

    MohawkWeekend wrote:
    Any accountants out there who can interpret the various "exclusions" in this part of the release would be appreciated -

    " Total adjusted operating expense for the September quarter decreased $5.5 billion or 52 percent versus the prior year quarter excluding $3.1 billion in charges related to the voluntary separation and early retirement programs for employees, $2.2 billion in restructuring charges from fleet-related decisions, and a $1.3 billion CARES Act benefit. This performance was driven by a $1.8 billion or 78 percent reduction in fuel expense, a 75 percent reduction in maintenance expense from parking or retiring nearly 40 percent of mainline aircraft and lower volume- and revenue-related expenses. Salaries and benefits expense was down 32 percent as a result of approximately 18,000 employees electing to depart the company in addition to benefits from voluntary unpaid leaves, work hour reductions and other initiatives."

    So what DL is saying here is that excluding the one-time items of "$3.1 billion in charges related to the voluntary separation and early retirement programs for employees, $2.2 billion in restructuring charges from fleet-related decisions, and a $1.3 billion CARES Act benefit," the actual recurring expenses decreased by $5.5 billion in Q3 vs. Q2. However, it's important to note that these are all based on accrual accounting, so the numbers represent costs that were incurred, not what was paid in cash. The 2nd half of the paragraph is explaining the drivers of the decrease in expenses in Q3 vs. Q2.
    A319 A320 A321 A333 A343 A346 A388 B712 B733 B737 B738 B739 B744 B748 B752 B764 B772 B77L B77W B788 B789 CRJ2 E145 E75S E75L E190 MD88 MD90
    AA AC B6 CA CX CZ DL EK FM HU JL KA LH LX MU NH NK TK UA US
     
    United1
    Posts: 4194
    Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2003 9:21 am

    Re: DL Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:17 pm

    MIflyer12 wrote:
    CARES Act funds are shown as 'contra-expense' - a negative line item shown as CARES Act grant recognition under Operating Expense in the Consolidated Statements of Operations.


    Which would make sense as the 1.315 billion DL received this quarter from CARES was basically revenue vs an outlay.
    I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
     
    User avatar
    jfklganyc
    Posts: 6080
    Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

    Re: DL Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:48 pm

    chonetsao wrote:
    I think people are more interested with the forward looking statement. The expected performance for early 2021 would be very interesting to watch.

    On another hand, I feel interesting that DL will keep B767-300ER until 2025.


    These planes should be gone tomorrow.

    Time to get real.

    2025 is like waiting aboard the Titanic for a Carnival Cruise Ship to arrive.
     
    User avatar
    DL747400
    Posts: 968
    Joined: Mon Sep 01, 2008 4:04 pm

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:04 pm

    There was an interesting item from today's 8-K filing:

    https://ir.delta.com/financials/sec-fil ... d=14438150

    Item 1.02 Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement

    On October 8, 2020, Delta Air Lines, Inc. (“Delta”) repaid approximately $3.0 billion, the full amount of outstanding borrowings under its 364-day term loan credit agreement, dated as of March 17, 2020, as amended, with JPMorgan Chase Bank. N.A., as administrative agent and the lenders party thereto, and the agreement was terminated. The material terms and conditions of the agreement were described in Delta’s Current Reports on Form 8-K filed on March 20, 2020 and July 2, 2020. As a result of the termination of the agreement, the liens on the aircraft securing the borrowings were released.

    Perhaps this was DL paying down their most expensive short term debt? I suppose those freed up aircraft can now be potentially used as collateral so that DL can seek additional liquidity at more favorable terms/rates?

    Also interesting that The Vanguard Group now apparently owns 10.4% of DL shares:

    http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CI ... 6e6a94.pdf
    Last edited by DL747400 on Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
    From First to Worst: The history of Airliners.net.

    All posts reflect my opinions, not those of my employer or any other company.
     
    MIflyer12
    Posts: 8499
    Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

    Re: DL Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:10 pm

    United1 wrote:
    MIflyer12 wrote:
    CARES Act funds are shown as 'contra-expense' - a negative line item shown as CARES Act grant recognition under Operating Expense in the Consolidated Statements of Operations.


    Which would make sense as the 1.315 billion DL received this quarter from CARES was basically revenue vs an outlay.


    It doesn't show as revenue - it's a negative expense.
     
    MIflyer12
    Posts: 8499
    Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:14 pm

    DL747400 wrote:
    Perhaps this was DL paying down their most expensive short term debt?


    Probably, and there are some fairly large transactions. AA reported doing much the same thing 2Q20.

    There was another DL transaction in addition to the one you cited, emphasis mine:

    Subsequent to the end of the quarter, the company repaid the $3 billion, 364-day term loan that it entered into in
    March, increasing its unencumbered asset base to $9 to $10 billion of aircraft, engines and spare parts and
    reducing remaining debt amortization and maturities to $2.3 billion through the end of 2021. The company also
    repaid $2.6 billion under its revolving credit facilities drawn down in March 2020.


    What it means: when we see new borrowings they may not be totally incremental debt.
     
    MIflyer12
    Posts: 8499
    Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

    Re: DL Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:17 pm

    jfklganyc wrote:
    chonetsao wrote:
    I think people are more interested with the forward looking statement. The expected performance for early 2021 would be very interesting to watch.

    On another hand, I feel interesting that DL will keep B767-300ER until 2025.


    These planes should be gone tomorrow.

    Time to get real.

    2025 is like waiting aboard the Titanic for a Carnival Cruise Ship to arrive.


    Have AA, WN or UA (you know, the one with the older fleet on average) announced, or completed the retirement of, more mainline aircraft than DL?
     
    Alias1024
    Posts: 2693
    Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 11:13 am

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:33 pm

    DL747400 wrote:
    There was an interesting item from today's 8-K filing:

    https://ir.delta.com/financials/sec-fil ... d=14438150

    Item 1.02 Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement

    On October 8, 2020, Delta Air Lines, Inc. (“Delta”) repaid approximately $3.0 billion, the full amount of outstanding borrowings under its 364-day term loan credit agreement, dated as of March 17, 2020, as amended, with JPMorgan Chase Bank. N.A., as administrative agent and the lenders party thereto, and the agreement was terminated. The material terms and conditions of the agreement were described in Delta’s Current Reports on Form 8-K filed on March 20, 2020 and July 2, 2020. As a result of the termination of the agreement, the liens on the aircraft securing the borrowings were released.

    Perhaps this was DL paying down their most expensive short term debt? I suppose those freed up aircraft can now be potentially used as collateral so that DL can seek additional liquidity at more favorable terms/rates?


    I doubt it was about the cost of the debt and instead is about the maturity date. It has become clear this is a multi-year recovery, not the v-shaped one that was hoped for back in March when that agreement was reached. Delta needs to push repayment back as far as they can so they have cash for operations while working back toward profitability. With the $9 billion in borrowings they secured last month, Delta now has 5-8 years to repay that $3 billion instead of 5 months.
    It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
     
    ScottB
    Posts: 7116
    Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

    Re: DL Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:34 pm

    chonetsao wrote:
    On another hand, I feel interesting that DL will keep B767-300ER until 2025.


    I think it's fairly logical that the 767-300ERs are sticking around a bit longer. They're the smallest widebody in the fleet, so they'll be useful for restoring long-haul routes at the lowest possible trip cost once demand starts to return. They also can share crews with the 757s and the 767-400ERs which will remain in the fleet.
     
    KlimaBXsst
    Posts: 906
    Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:14 pm

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:36 pm

    Trying to analyze some of the bigger take aways.

    CRJ-200 125 (removed) December 2023.
    91 - 717s.

    Seems like more regional feed will be needed or some secondary cities may get the ax.
    Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
     
    JoseSalazar
    Posts: 278
    Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

    Re: DL Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:33 pm

    ScottB wrote:
    chonetsao wrote:
    On another hand, I feel interesting that DL will keep B767-300ER until 2025.


    I think it's fairly logical that the 767-300ERs are sticking around a bit longer. They're the smallest widebody in the fleet, so they'll be useful for restoring long-haul routes at the lowest possible trip cost once demand starts to return. They also can share crews with the 757s and the 767-400ERs which will remain in the fleet.

    The 767-400 is a different category at delta (called the “765” ironically) than the 752/753/763 (“7ER”) category. So, unless they change that, 764 crews are only 764.
     
    panamair
    Posts: 4348
    Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2001 2:24 am

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:23 pm

    Some notes from the earnings call:
    - Revenues at 10% of prior year in Q2, then 21% in Q3, and expect to be 30-35% of prior year in Q4
    - Anticipate cash burn down to $10-12m a day in Q4; improvement here mostly due to increasing revenues
    - Adjusted net debt of $17B at end of Q3 (which is up $6.5B since end of 2019); repaid $2.6B revolver facility in Q3 so frees up another $3B in revolver; unencumbered assets now at $9-$10B
    - Adjusted net debt of $19B at end of Q4 anticipated and liquidity of $16B. The decrease due to $1B of cash burn for Q4, repaying $3B term loan, and another $450m debt maturity in Q4
    - Near-term maturities: $450m in Dec 2020; $600m in April 2021. In total, under $2B due in next 15-18 months so perfectly manageable
    - Net cash sales at +$5 to $10m a day at start of Q3 to +$25-30m at end of Q3
    - Corporate demand volume at about 15% of last year's; corporate increases all segments in Q3
    - international weak except for Caribbean and Mexico
    - domestic US demand at 35-40% of pre-pandemic levels - strongest in FL, Mountain West and Beach destinations
    - NY and BOS slow - at just above 20% of pre-pandemic levels
    - seeing strength in holiday period demand (Thanksgiving, Christmas) and consumer willingness to book further in advance including in the slow periods of early December and post-holiday January
    - non-ticket sales on the AMEX cobrand card doing much better than most revenue sources; airline spend on the cards also improving, from -103% at low point in spring, to -70% now
    - increasing capacity for Thanksgiving and Christmas, reducing for Halloween and US election week
    - nearly 18,000 employees took voluntary leave packages, another 12,000 currently on different duration temporary leaves
    - reached agreement with Airbus to restructure order book - reduction in CapEx by $2B in 2020, and by $5B through 2022
    - lifting load factor caps probably sometime in 1st half 2021 but no definite plans yet
    - Top 4 corporate segments normally: banking, financial services, manufacturing, transportation. About 90% of corporate customers have travellers flying again (but small numbers)
     
    ordbosewr
    Posts: 621
    Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 8:30 pm

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:07 pm

    I watched the CNBC interview this AM and I was not impressed with the questions not asked. Meaning, Ed talked about they have a roadmap for profitability. That is great, but not one of the anchors asked what is the assumption to get to that point.
    Do they need to get back to 50% or 60% of pre-COVID revenue to hit that target. or said another way, what is their expectation for end Q1 revenue as a % of pre-COVID?
    If they have a roadmap that is overly optimistic that could be a risk that was not called out.
     
    User avatar
    Revelation
    Posts: 24794
    Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

    Re: DL Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:20 pm

    MIflyer12 wrote:
    The new aircraft deferrals reference isn't very specific:

    Maybe this helps?

    Delta Air Lines Inc. is delaying $5 billion in aircraft deliveries until after 2022, dealing a blow to Airbus SE as the U.S. carrier braces for years of weak travel demand.

    The deferral agreement includes about $2 billion in planes that were scheduled to be handed over this year,
    Delta said in a statement Tuesday as it reported worse-than-expected quarterly results. The delays will also affect a small number of CRJ regional jets made by Bombardier Inc., Delta said, without disclosing the total number of aircraft affected.

    “This has less to do with the outlook for demand and more to do with our cash situation,” Delta Chief Executive Officer Ed Bastian said in an interview. “It’s an indication of a great partnership with Airbus and the recognition that we’re playing the long game and are still going to take these aircraft.”

    Ref: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -to-airbus

    So it was a negotiated settlement. Kind of surprised Airbus granted such liberties, but I guess DL has the leverage to gain such treatment.

    MIflyer12 wrote:
    Have AA, WN or UA (you know, the one with the older fleet on average) announced, or completed the retirement of, more mainline aircraft than DL?

    It's funny how many different fleets DL had. They also are trying to get out from under 717 whose leases run till 2030. It'll be interesting to see where that one ends up.

    Would be interesting to have a 'what should UA get rid of next' discussion, but probably not in this thread.
    Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
    The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
    Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
    The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
     
    TonyClifton
    Posts: 292
    Joined: Thu May 14, 2020 3:19 pm

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:32 pm

    Was it ever confirmed the 717 was extended to 2030. I heard it was “planned” but never saw official announcements it was done, and immediately before COVID heard that plan might have changed.
     
    dtwpilot225
    Posts: 279
    Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:31 am

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:00 pm

    Did it list anywhere the new delivery schedule for those aircraft deferred ?
     
    jayunited
    Posts: 3026
    Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:18 pm

    The Points Guy is reporting Delta is delaying delivery of roughly 70 Airbus and Bombardier jets due to be delivered through the end of 2021 until a later date.

    "However, an arguably bigger move by Delta was its decision to delay the arrival of roughly 70 new Airbus and Bombardier jets due by the end of 2021 to later dates. The move will save it $5 billion through 2022 — no little chunk of change that amounts to nearly a quarter of the carrier’s entire $21.6 billion in liquidity at the end of September.

    Executives did not say what planes have been deferred and which will arrive over the next two years. They also did not comment on the temporary parking of 11 A220s due to pilot staffing issues."
    https://thepointsguy.com/news/delta-rep ... ly-return/

    Does anyone know the total number of aircraft Delta was scheduled to take delivery of between Q4 2020 and the end of Q4 2021?
     
    FlyingElvii
    Posts: 993
    Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:33 pm

    KlimaBXsst wrote:
    Trying to analyze some of the bigger take aways.

    CRJ-200 125 (removed) December 2023.
    91 - 717s.

    Seems like more regional feed will be needed or some secondary cities may get the ax.


    Per Planespotters, the Endeavor CRJ 200 fleet is old. Really old, some are pushing 19 yrs old.
    At least in the short term, there is a market for Green Engines for -200F conversions. Might as well get rid of them while they are still worth something.
    I think the SkyWest fleet is a bit younger? At least some of them?

    Delta has been trying to return mainline service to smaller cities for years. Under current conditions, a CRJ-700 or an ERJ can do that at much less cost than a mainline A220 can.
     
    Oliver2020
    Posts: 197
    Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:39 am

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:38 pm

    jayunited wrote:
    The Points Guy is reporting Delta is delaying delivery of roughly 70 Airbus and Bombardier jets due to be delivered through the end of 2021 until a later date.

    "However, an arguably bigger move by Delta was its decision to delay the arrival of roughly 70 new Airbus and Bombardier jets due by the end of 2021 to later dates. The move will save it $5 billion through 2022 — no little chunk of change that amounts to nearly a quarter of the carrier’s entire $21.6 billion in liquidity at the end of September.

    Executives did not say what planes have been deferred and which will arrive over the next two years. They also did not comment on the temporary parking of 11 A220s due to pilot staffing issues."
    https://thepointsguy.com/news/delta-rep ... ly-return/

    Does anyone know the total number of aircraft Delta was scheduled to take delivery of between Q4 2020 and the end of Q4 2021?


    http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CI ... 2d6695.pdf
    Reference page 26 of the SEC filings in the aircrafts and purchase section. That was the plan as of 12/30/2019, prior to the pandemic.
    Last edited by Oliver2020 on Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
     
    User avatar
    FLALEFTY
    Posts: 813
    Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 11:33 am

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:41 pm

    KlimaBXsst wrote:
    Trying to analyze some of the bigger take aways.

    CRJ-200 125 (removed) December 2023.
    91 - 717s.

    Seems like more regional feed will be needed or some secondary cities may get the ax.


    I was thinking secondary feed markets such as VLD, GTR, ABY, CRW, BQK & DHN might be candidates for the chopping block as EV's CRJ2's get pulled down.
     
    DiamondFlyer
    Posts: 3414
    Joined: Wed Oct 29, 2008 11:50 pm

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:39 pm

    FlyingElvii wrote:
    KlimaBXsst wrote:
    Trying to analyze some of the bigger take aways.

    CRJ-200 125 (removed) December 2023.
    91 - 717s.

    Seems like more regional feed will be needed or some secondary cities may get the ax.


    Per Planespotters, the Endeavor CRJ 200 fleet is old. Really old, some are pushing 19 yrs old.
    At least in the short term, there is a market for Green Engines for -200F conversions. Might as well get rid of them while they are still worth something.
    I think the SkyWest fleet is a bit younger? At least some of them?

    Delta has been trying to return mainline service to smaller cities for years. Under current conditions, a CRJ-700 or an ERJ can do that at much less cost than a mainline A220 can.


    19 years isn't old for a 200 fleet. Look at OO, they have many that are 25+ years old. Endeavor has the newest, in operation, 200's in the US... Many were 2004 & 2005 deliveries. The only birds that OO had that were newer for DL, were Delta owned 200's, that were Endeavor at one point.

    For what it is worth, a big chunk of the 200's at Endeavor are newer than some of the 700's they have...
    From my cold, dead hands
     
    PSU.DTW.SCE
    Posts: 8250
    Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:04 am

    TonyClifton wrote:
    Was it ever confirmed the 717 was extended to 2030. I heard it was “planned” but never saw official announcements it was done, and immediately before COVID heard that plan might have changed.

    Nothing ever was made official. Quasi-credible rumor, but nothing official. Could have been nothing more than a study or internal-analysis that made its way out That rumor was from early 2019.

    dtwpilot225 wrote:
    Did it list anywhere the new delivery schedule for those aircraft deferred ?

    No. Nothing in granular detail has ever been made public. The pointsguy and other new sources are simply reguritating, summarizing, and spinning the statements released into today's 10K / earnings release. They are purposely being vague for a variety of reasons and probably have to because of the nature of how it impacts Airbus, how negotiations are on-going, how future production rates are still being determined, impact on other carriers negotiations, and also on-going financing related activities.

    Only thing announced was a few weeks ago when DL announced a sale leaseback deal to raise $750M for 9 Airbus aircraft to be delivered this year
    2 A350, 2 A339, and 5 A321. All but 1 of the A321s have been recently delivered in the past couple of weeks.
     
    PSU.DTW.SCE
    Posts: 8250
    Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:15 am

    ordbosewr wrote:
    I watched the CNBC interview this AM and I was not impressed with the questions not asked. Meaning, Ed talked about they have a roadmap for profitability. That is great, but not one of the anchors asked what is the assumption to get to that point.
    Do they need to get back to 50% or 60% of pre-COVID revenue to hit that target. or said another way, what is their expectation for end Q1 revenue as a % of pre-COVID?
    If they have a roadmap that is overly optimistic that could be a risk that was not called out.

    CNBC (or any media interviews for that matter) are never going to get good questions and answers. One, the interviewers typically have to toss them softballs and or pre-agreed to questions, and can't beat them up too much if they ever want to get future access. Second, and more importantly is the information they are allowed to divulge in such a format can't be anything of material nature, confidential, or anything they would really go against something that would have to either filed with the SEC, in an official news release, or anything that could be a conflict of interest.
    Hence why all you typically get is a regurgitation of previously made statements & announcements, questions they will decline to answer or evade, and usually get a bunch of corporate non-speak and word-salad.

    The major milestones that DL has said are based around the following targets:
    - On-going cash burn reduction, their goal was to be below $25 M day at the end of Q3
    - Get cash-burn to break even by end of 2020
    - Forecast of 60-70% of revenue in Q3 2021

    DL had shown to be playing the long-game and made a who bunch or restructuring decisions to plan the airline for the 60-70% in Q3 2021 (Summer 2021).
    Fleet decisions, headcount/labor planning, capacity planning, etc. is all predicated on what "peak" summer may look like next year. Hence the decisions of how much excess to carry through what they know are a lean Q4 & Q1 which are really only interim milestones. Its Q2 & Q3 2021 that DL is planning for at this time.
     
    AZORMP
    Posts: 109
    Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:08 pm

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:40 am

    KlimaBXsst wrote:
    Trying to analyze some of the bigger take aways.

    CRJ-200 125 (removed) December 2023.
    91 - 717s.

    Seems like more regional feed will be needed or some secondary cities may get the ax.


    A good chunk of those CRJ-200s are gone already. SkyWest is removing them from DL flying by the end of the year according to their 2Q20 filing. That leaves the 42 that 9E has running around. I do not believe it includes the EAS routes.
    Kalamazoo’s Radio Man

    The RJ2 sucks.
     
    ordbosewr
    Posts: 621
    Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 8:30 pm

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:59 am

    PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
    ordbosewr wrote:
    I watched the CNBC interview this AM and I was not impressed with the questions not asked. Meaning, Ed talked about they have a roadmap for profitability. That is great, but not one of the anchors asked what is the assumption to get to that point.
    Do they need to get back to 50% or 60% of pre-COVID revenue to hit that target. or said another way, what is their expectation for end Q1 revenue as a % of pre-COVID?
    If they have a roadmap that is overly optimistic that could be a risk that was not called out.

    CNBC (or any media interviews for that matter) are never going to get good questions and answers. One, the interviewers typically have to toss them softballs and or pre-agreed to questions, and can't beat them up too much if they ever want to get future access. Second, and more importantly is the information they are allowed to divulge in such a format can't be anything of material nature, confidential, or anything they would really go against something that would have to either filed with the SEC, in an official news release, or anything that could be a conflict of interest.
    Hence why all you typically get is a regurgitation of previously made statements & announcements, questions they will decline to answer or evade, and usually get a bunch of corporate non-speak and word-salad.

    The major milestones that DL has said are based around the following targets:
    - On-going cash burn reduction, their goal was to be below $25 M day at the end of Q3
    - Get cash-burn to break even by end of 2020
    - Forecast of 60-70% of revenue in Q3 2021

    DL had shown to be playing the long-game and made a who bunch or restructuring decisions to plan the airline for the 60-70% in Q3 2021 (Summer 2021).
    Fleet decisions, headcount/labor planning, capacity planning, etc. is all predicated on what "peak" summer may look like next year. Hence the decisions of how much excess to carry through what they know are a lean Q4 & Q1 which are really only interim milestones. Its Q2 & Q3 2021 that DL is planning for at this time.


    I appreciate this, and I do get it the CNBC parts and material messaging with the SEC.

    However, the headline for airlines recently on this site and even this thread is all about cash burn rates.
    A major assumption in the expectations on when an airline will be cash flow positive is based on the revenue expectations. Ed did not mention what they are planning for, but he was all positive that they have a 'line of site to breakeven'.
    I have not see the 60-70% pre-COVID in Q3, that is great to know. Now that is important since it can be used to compare what other airlines are thinking. Does anybody know what AA, UA or Southwest have for the same period?
     
    jayunited
    Posts: 3026
    Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:04 am

    I know I'm probably going to get in trouble for posting this but I'm surprised no one has brought this up yet.

    Delta Airlines through the CARES Act received a total of $5.4 Billion dollars from the tax payer, I guess it was assumed that airlines would use up 100% of the funds by September 30, 2020 by keeping employees take home base pay the same.

    However now that the 6 month period is over if we add up Delta's payroll from Q2 and Q3, Delta Airlines still has $1.3 Billion dollars in CARES act funds. Delta says they intend to use all fund by the end of 2020 and there is no reason to doubt them on that.

    Delta reduced their payroll expenses in Q2 and Q3 through various methods including early outs and reduction in working hours for non union employees to stretch out their existing CARES act funds through the of the year. The reduction in hours was a controversial move on DL's part but it is paying dividends now seeing that there still is no second CARES act.

    Don't take this as negative post I'm not coming after Delta, in fact it has proven to be a very smart move. It has allowed Delta to avoid furloughs (should they come to an agreement with their pilots) and Delta has left over CARES act funds to help get them through the reminder of 2020.

    The only question that I have is since Delta still has $1.3 Billion dollars in CARES act funds and the CARES act strictly forbid airlines who have taken funds from involuntary furloughs or layoffs can Delta legally involuntarily furlough pilots on November 1st with CARES act funds still in the bank?
     
    User avatar
    klm617
    Posts: 5246
    Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:13 am

    PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
    ordbosewr wrote:
    I watched the CNBC interview this AM and I was not impressed with the questions not asked. Meaning, Ed talked about they have a roadmap for profitability. That is great, but not one of the anchors asked what is the assumption to get to that point.
    Do they need to get back to 50% or 60% of pre-COVID revenue to hit that target. or said another way, what is their expectation for end Q1 revenue as a % of pre-COVID?
    If they have a roadmap that is overly optimistic that could be a risk that was not called out.

    CNBC (or any media interviews for that matter) are never going to get good questions and answers. One, the interviewers typically have to toss them softballs and or pre-agreed to questions, and can't beat them up too much if they ever want to get future access. Second, and more importantly is the information they are allowed to divulge in such a format can't be anything of material nature, confidential, or anything they would really go against something that would have to either filed with the SEC, in an official news release, or anything that could be a conflict of interest.
    Hence why all you typically get is a regurgitation of previously made statements & announcements, questions they will decline to answer or evade, and usually get a bunch of corporate non-speak and word-salad.

    The major milestones that DL has said are based around the following targets:
    - On-going cash burn reduction, their goal was to be below $25 M day at the end of Q3
    - Get cash-burn to break even by end of 2020
    - Forecast of 60-70% of revenue in Q3 2021

    DL had shown to be playing the long-game and made a who bunch or restructuring decisions to plan the airline for the 60-70% in Q3 2021 (Summer 2021).
    Fleet decisions, headcount/labor planning, capacity planning, etc. is all predicated on what "peak" summer may look like next year. Hence the decisions of how much excess to carry through what they know are a lean Q4 & Q1 which are really only interim milestones. Its Q2 & Q3 2021 that DL is planning for at this time.


    So it's nothing more than meaningless fluff. Why would anyone waste time watching interviews like that when the material is only what they want you to hear. I want the truth not what someone wants me to believe what the truth is.
    the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
     
    User avatar
    klm617
    Posts: 5246
    Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:23 am

    FLALEFTY wrote:
    KlimaBXsst wrote:
    Trying to analyze some of the bigger take aways.

    CRJ-200 125 (removed) December 2023.
    91 - 717s.

    Seems like more regional feed will be needed or some secondary cities may get the ax.


    I was thinking secondary feed markets such as VLD, GTR, ABY, CRW, BQK & DHN might be candidates for the chopping block as EV's CRJ2's get pulled down.


    My guess is they would cut upper Midwest routes and the plains before they would cut anything in the Southeast weakening it's powerbase in that area of the country. The Southeast and it's feed from those markets into Atlanta are it's bread and butter will the Midwest and Plains states are secondary in the grand scheme of things. I'm thinking they would much rather surrender the midwest and plains markets to UA and AA.
    the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
     
    TonyClifton
    Posts: 292
    Joined: Thu May 14, 2020 3:19 pm

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:30 am

    klm617 wrote:
    FLALEFTY wrote:
    KlimaBXsst wrote:
    Trying to analyze some of the bigger take aways.

    CRJ-200 125 (removed) December 2023.
    91 - 717s.

    Seems like more regional feed will be needed or some secondary cities may get the ax.


    I was thinking secondary feed markets such as VLD, GTR, ABY, CRW, BQK & DHN might be candidates for the chopping block as EV's CRJ2's get pulled down.


    My guess is they would cut upper Midwest routes and the plains before they would cut anything in the Southeast weakening it's powerbase in that area of the country. The Southeast and it's feed from those markets into Atlanta are it's bread and butter will the Midwest and Plains states are secondary in the grand scheme of things. I'm thinking they would much rather surrender the midwest and plains markets to UA and AA.

    I think as A220s come online, the large RJs flying many routes will drop down into formerly 50 seat routes. We can see 4x 50 seat become 3x 70/76 seat, etc. The removal of RJs from stuff like NYC-Texas frees up plenty of time to jam in some small turns the 200 used to do.
     
    PSU.DTW.SCE
    Posts: 8250
    Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:32 am

    Its not just meaningless fluff, but its never going to divulge anything that wasn't already publically released, nothing to tip or signal to competitors, or anything that would have material financial impact. The people watching stuff on CNBC may not all be close followers of each company, each announcement, each press release, and so forth. Obviously a big spotlight is shown when they are doing a quarterly earnings release of astonishing proportion. A lot of causal industry follows may not have any context of what was to be expected, may not have been following every announcement or development. Its a high level summary and to give a bit of a candid (yet scripted interview).
    They just never get into deep details or anything they don't want to divulge. This is how almost all large publicly traded companies operate.
     
    PSU.DTW.SCE
    Posts: 8250
    Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:41 am

    TonyClifton wrote:
    klm617 wrote:
    FLALEFTY wrote:

    I was thinking secondary feed markets such as VLD, GTR, ABY, CRW, BQK & DHN might be candidates for the chopping block as EV's CRJ2's get pulled down.


    My guess is they would cut upper Midwest routes and the plains before they would cut anything in the Southeast weakening it's powerbase in that area of the country. The Southeast and it's feed from those markets into Atlanta are it's bread and butter will the Midwest and Plains states are secondary in the grand scheme of things. I'm thinking they would much rather surrender the midwest and plains markets to UA and AA.

    I think as A220s come online, the large RJs flying many routes will drop down into formerly 50 seat routes. We can see 4x 50 seat become 3x 70/76 seat, etc. The removal of RJs from stuff like NYC-Texas frees up plenty of time to jam in some small turns the 200 used to do.

    This.

    This was already occuring in 2019. As A220's came-online they took over a significant amount of the longer 2-class RJ flying (CR9 & E75)
    Flights like DTW / MSP / LGA / JFK - DFW / IAH / AUS / SAT plus some of the 2 hr plus stuff out of SEA & SLC.
    Instead of getting in 4-5 segments a day, now they can easily do 5-6 segments on shorter stage length flights.
    The A220s allow for greater flexibility and increased utilization. In the future its possible, particularly the A223s they can even take advantage of the time-zones, and its possible you could even see them on some of the thinner west coast red-eyes (e.g., LAX-BNA, RDU, CHM for example) Red-eyes on CR9 & E75s aren't possible / feasible.
     
    MIflyer12
    Posts: 8499
    Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:46 am

    klm617 wrote:
    FLALEFTY wrote:
    KlimaBXsst wrote:
    Trying to analyze some of the bigger take aways.

    CRJ-200 125 (removed) December 2023.
    91 - 717s.

    Seems like more regional feed will be needed or some secondary cities may get the ax.


    I was thinking secondary feed markets such as VLD, GTR, ABY, CRW, BQK & DHN might be candidates for the chopping block as EV's CRJ2's get pulled down.


    My guess is they would cut upper Midwest routes and the plains before they would cut anything in the Southeast weakening it's powerbase in that area of the country. The Southeast and it's feed from those markets into Atlanta are it's bread and butter will the Midwest and Plains states are secondary in the grand scheme of things. I'm thinking they would much rather surrender the midwest and plains markets to UA and AA.


    Yes, because we know DL hates MSP and DTW. :o

    Rather than generalizations, look at the routes and frequencies where the CR2s are used today. IMHO any airport that sees DL CR2s (and nothing larger) three or fewer times a day ought to start contemplating life without Delta.
     
    PSU.DTW.SCE
    Posts: 8250
    Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:49 am

    ordbosewr wrote:
    PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
    ordbosewr wrote:
    I watched the CNBC interview this AM and I was not impressed with the questions not asked. Meaning, Ed talked about they have a roadmap for profitability. That is great, but not one of the anchors asked what is the assumption to get to that point.
    Do they need to get back to 50% or 60% of pre-COVID revenue to hit that target. or said another way, what is their expectation for end Q1 revenue as a % of pre-COVID?
    If they have a roadmap that is overly optimistic that could be a risk that was not called out.

    CNBC (or any media interviews for that matter) are never going to get good questions and answers. One, the interviewers typically have to toss them softballs and or pre-agreed to questions, and can't beat them up too much if they ever want to get future access. Second, and more importantly is the information they are allowed to divulge in such a format can't be anything of material nature, confidential, or anything they would really go against something that would have to either filed with the SEC, in an official news release, or anything that could be a conflict of interest.
    Hence why all you typically get is a regurgitation of previously made statements & announcements, questions they will decline to answer or evade, and usually get a bunch of corporate non-speak and word-salad.

    The major milestones that DL has said are based around the following targets:
    - On-going cash burn reduction, their goal was to be below $25 M day at the end of Q3
    - Get cash-burn to break even by end of 2020
    - Forecast of 60-70% of revenue in Q3 2021

    DL had shown to be playing the long-game and made a who bunch or restructuring decisions to plan the airline for the 60-70% in Q3 2021 (Summer 2021).
    Fleet decisions, headcount/labor planning, capacity planning, etc. is all predicated on what "peak" summer may look like next year. Hence the decisions of how much excess to carry through what they know are a lean Q4 & Q1 which are really only interim milestones. Its Q2 & Q3 2021 that DL is planning for at this time.


    I appreciate this, and I do get it the CNBC parts and material messaging with the SEC.

    However, the headline for airlines recently on this site and even this thread is all about cash burn rates.
    A major assumption in the expectations on when an airline will be cash flow positive is based on the revenue expectations. Ed did not mention what they are planning for, but he was all positive that they have a 'line of site to breakeven'.
    I have not see the 60-70% pre-COVID in Q3, that is great to know. Now that is important since it can be used to compare what other airlines are thinking. Does anybody know what AA, UA or Southwest have for the same period?

    Those numbers were thrown around earlier this summer when talking about justifications for fleet and labor decisions. They were appropriately vague and it wasn't clear what metric they were even talking about - (e.g., capacity - ASMs, capacity - seats, revenue, passengers, flights, flight hours). It was just that vague, and early on.
    I don't think any airlines is going to publically divulge their 2021 capacity planning at this point for a whole variety of reasons. Some competitive, but more importantly its very much a wildcard and at this point there are multiple scenarios that could play out and they all want to remain somewhat flexible and have a few different scenarios in mind.

    The 60-70% for Summer 2021 really probably breaks down into something like 50-60% for International and 70-80% for domestic. Each airline is going to have different planning assumptions based on their network / customer mix / and exposure to demand segments that are either outpacing or lagging in the recovery.

    What actually transpires could be wildly different, but that 60-70% is within the metaphorical "cone of uncertainty" at this point.
     
    PSU.DTW.SCE
    Posts: 8250
    Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:53 am

    MIflyer12 wrote:
    klm617 wrote:
    FLALEFTY wrote:

    I was thinking secondary feed markets such as VLD, GTR, ABY, CRW, BQK & DHN might be candidates for the chopping block as EV's CRJ2's get pulled down.


    My guess is they would cut upper Midwest routes and the plains before they would cut anything in the Southeast weakening it's powerbase in that area of the country. The Southeast and it's feed from those markets into Atlanta are it's bread and butter will the Midwest and Plains states are secondary in the grand scheme of things. I'm thinking they would much rather surrender the midwest and plains markets to UA and AA.


    Yes, because we know DL hates MSP and DTW. :o

    Rather than generalizations, look at the routes and frequencies where the CR2s are used today. IMHO any airport that sees DL CR2s (and nothing larger) three or fewer times a day ought to start contemplating life without Delta.

    Realistically -
    I would guess about 50% of those markets that fit that profile will probably just be cut
    50% will probably be given a respite for a short period to prove themselves at 2-3x CR9s.

    The wildcard will be on the EAS side. Will they get rebid with CR9s? Will they led AA & UA or the other token EAS provides have these markets?
    Also murky, if they don't let OO bid of some of this still under the at-risk arrangement.
     
    User avatar
    klm617
    Posts: 5246
    Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:58 am

    MIflyer12 wrote:
    klm617 wrote:
    FLALEFTY wrote:

    I was thinking secondary feed markets such as VLD, GTR, ABY, CRW, BQK & DHN might be candidates for the chopping block as EV's CRJ2's get pulled down.


    My guess is they would cut upper Midwest routes and the plains before they would cut anything in the Southeast weakening it's powerbase in that area of the country. The Southeast and it's feed from those markets into Atlanta are it's bread and butter will the Midwest and Plains states are secondary in the grand scheme of things. I'm thinking they would much rather surrender the midwest and plains markets to UA and AA.


    Yes, because we know DL hates MSP and DTW. :o

    Rather than generalizations, look at the routes and frequencies where the CR2s are used today. IMHO any airport that sees DL CR2s (and nothing larger) three or fewer times a day ought to start contemplating life without Delta.



    They are not going to be flying planes like that to AZO, LAN, EVV, ESC, APN, PLN, ITH, ELM, SWF, SCE and the like and those stations are most likely going to get surrendered to AA and UA just like places like FNT and ERI did. I guarantee you those cities will get dropped before anything in the Southeast will be dropped TVC, GRR, SBN and the like but you can't sustain a hub and connectivity on 2 flights a day. Business travelers are not going to sit around for 6 or more hours because of a missed connection.
    the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
     
    AZORMP
    Posts: 109
    Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:08 pm

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:59 am

    MIflyer12 wrote:
    klm617 wrote:
    FLALEFTY wrote:

    I was thinking secondary feed markets such as VLD, GTR, ABY, CRW, BQK & DHN might be candidates for the chopping block as EV's CRJ2's get pulled down.


    My guess is they would cut upper Midwest routes and the plains before they would cut anything in the Southeast weakening it's powerbase in that area of the country. The Southeast and it's feed from those markets into Atlanta are it's bread and butter will the Midwest and Plains states are secondary in the grand scheme of things. I'm thinking they would much rather surrender the midwest and plains markets to UA and AA.


    Yes, because we know DL hates MSP and DTW. :o

    Rather than generalizations, look at the routes and frequencies where the CR2s are used today. IMHO any airport that sees DL CR2s (and nothing larger) three or fewer times a day ought to start contemplating life without Delta.


    Are you talking pre-Covid service or current service? Because right now I think the only airport with straight 200s 3x or less daily, at least in Michigan, is LAN. AZO is 5x daily on the 200 and is supposed to go to 6x in late November. GRR has 700s and 900s, same with TVC. MBS is running 3x a day but the midday flight is a 900, likely due to the FNT closure. Everything else is EAS, except MQT.

    Pre-Covid, AZO, MBS, LAN, and TVC all had two-class service during peak travel season. In the fall/winter when things started slowing down, most dropped to straight 200s but they still generally kept their schedules, more or less. I don’t think it would be out of the realm of possibility that those stations regain consistent two-class service post-Covid, even if the frequencies are somewhat reduced.
    Kalamazoo’s Radio Man

    The RJ2 sucks.
     
    User avatar
    klm617
    Posts: 5246
    Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:04 am

    PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
    MIflyer12 wrote:
    klm617 wrote:

    My guess is they would cut upper Midwest routes and the plains before they would cut anything in the Southeast weakening it's powerbase in that area of the country. The Southeast and it's feed from those markets into Atlanta are it's bread and butter will the Midwest and Plains states are secondary in the grand scheme of things. I'm thinking they would much rather surrender the midwest and plains markets to UA and AA.


    Yes, because we know DL hates MSP and DTW. :o

    Rather than generalizations, look at the routes and frequencies where the CR2s are used today. IMHO any airport that sees DL CR2s (and nothing larger) three or fewer times a day ought to start contemplating life without Delta.

    Realistically -
    I would guess about 50% of those markets that fit that profile will probably just be cut
    50% will probably be given a respite for a short period to prove themselves at 2-3x CR9s.

    The wildcard will be on the EAS side. Will they get rebid with CR9s? Will they led AA & UA or the other token EAS provides have these markets?
    Also murky, if they don't let OO bid of some of this still under the at-risk arrangement.


    But as I have stated if you have 4 flights a day to ORD on a CRJ or 2 flights a day on a CR7/9 you can't market reliability on that type of schedule for missed connections. If I'm fly LAX to AZO over DTW and I miss my connection I am not going to chance a 6 hour layover because there are only 2 flights to the market I need to get there. It's a no win situation for those cities who don't have four flights a day when it comes to premium traffic.
    the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
     
    User avatar
    klm617
    Posts: 5246
    Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:09 am

    MIflyer12 wrote:
    klm617 wrote:
    FLALEFTY wrote:

    I was thinking secondary feed markets such as VLD, GTR, ABY, CRW, BQK & DHN might be candidates for the chopping block as EV's CRJ2's get pulled down.


    My guess is they would cut upper Midwest routes and the plains before they would cut anything in the Southeast weakening it's powerbase in that area of the country. The Southeast and it's feed from those markets into Atlanta are it's bread and butter will the Midwest and Plains states are secondary in the grand scheme of things. I'm thinking they would much rather surrender the midwest and plains markets to UA and AA.


    Yes, because we know DL hates MSP and DTW. :o

    Rather than generalizations, look at the routes and frequencies where the CR2s are used today. IMHO any airport that sees DL CR2s (and nothing larger) three or fewer times a day ought to start contemplating life without Delta.


    I'm sorry but I have to disagree to an extent. Yes if the station is only linked to DTW or MSP I agree but when you talk about ATL I disagrees if anything capacity is going to be upped and service will remain.
    the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
     
    PSU.DTW.SCE
    Posts: 8250
    Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

    Re: DL 2020 Q3 earnings thread

    Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:15 am

    The reality is the days of 50 seaters for everyone are probably going to be over in the next 5-7 years. DL just is at the forefront of this, but its only a matter of time until the others do so as well.
    Its a new world order here.
    This isn't just a DL thing.

    UA and AA aren't going to be flinging 50 seater out of ORD to every far flung airport either.

    Some of these airports are going to be looking at 2-3x weekly G4 flights in the future.

    Popular Searches On Airliners.net

    Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

    Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

    Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

    Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

    Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

    Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

    Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

    Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

    Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

    Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

    Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

    Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

    Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

    Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

    Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos