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heretothere
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SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:59 pm

More flights on the way at SNA?

SNA has released it's proposed airline "slot" allocation for 2021 which would allow flights to increase by over 30%.

https://www.ocair.com/commissions/ocairportcommission/archive/2020/2020-10-21/item3_web.pdf

For background, airline access at SNA is ultimately governed by an agreement that caps passengers at a level that periodically increases. For the past several years, this cap has been set at 10.8 million, but 2021 will see that number increase to 11.8 million. To ensure the cap is not exceeded, the airport commission limits and allocates average daily departures (ADDs) and seats through a few different mechanisms. While last year the airport allocated a total of 11,831,743 seats with the 10.8 million passenger cap, this year the airport approved all airline requests for a total seat allocation of 15,540,176. With the cap now 11.8, the math brings us to the unsurprising conclusion that the flights are expected to be less full than past years. If somehow flights do end up fuller than expected, the airport has the ability to withdraw capacity starting with the lower priority allocations. Likewise, during the year the airport has the ability to reassign allocations that airlines are not utilizing.

Overall, ADDs increased from ~113 in 2020 to ~150 in 2021. The changes are below.

Current Carriers:

WN: +12 ADDs YoY
AS: +11 ADDs YoY
DL: +2 ADDs YoY
F9: +1 ADD YoY
WS: +1 ADD YoY

New Carriers:

NK: 5 ADDs (2 more than announced)
G4: ~3 ADDs (footnote says service starts 11Feb21)
SY: 1 ADD (footnote says service starts 8Apr21)
AC: 1 ADD (footnote says service starts 1May21)

Obviously in the current environment it's unlikely the airport will reach full utilization anytime soon, but at least there will be greater choice of carrier with all the new entrants.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:05 pm

heretothere wrote:
For background, airline access at SNA is ultimately governed by an agreement that caps passengers at a level that periodically increases. For the past several years, this cap has been set at 10.8 million, but 2021 will see that number increase to 11.8 million. To ensure the cap is not exceeded, the airport commission limits and allocates average daily departures (ADDs) and seats through a few different mechanisms. While last year the airport allocated a total of 11,831,743 seats with the 10.8 million passenger cap, this year the airport approved all airline requests for a total seat allocation of 15,540,176. With the cap now 11.8, the math brings us to the unsurprising conclusion that the flights are expected to be less full than past years. If somehow flights do end up fuller than expected, the airport has the ability to withdraw capacity starting with the lower priority allocations. Likewise, during the year the airport has the ability to reassign allocations that airlines are not utilizing.


Dumb question time: if load factors are higher than expected such that the total passenger count exceeds 11.8 million (perhaps unlikely next year, but at some point demand will pick back up), what consequences does that have for the airport and for the carriers?
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ScottB
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:22 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
heretothere wrote:
For background, airline access at SNA is ultimately governed by an agreement that caps passengers at a level that periodically increases. For the past several years, this cap has been set at 10.8 million, but 2021 will see that number increase to 11.8 million. To ensure the cap is not exceeded, the airport commission limits and allocates average daily departures (ADDs) and seats through a few different mechanisms. While last year the airport allocated a total of 11,831,743 seats with the 10.8 million passenger cap, this year the airport approved all airline requests for a total seat allocation of 15,540,176. With the cap now 11.8, the math brings us to the unsurprising conclusion that the flights are expected to be less full than past years. If somehow flights do end up fuller than expected, the airport has the ability to withdraw capacity starting with the lower priority allocations. Likewise, during the year the airport has the ability to reassign allocations that airlines are not utilizing.


Dumb question time: if load factors are higher than expected such that the total passenger count exceeds 11.8 million (perhaps unlikely next year, but at some point demand will pick back up), what consequences does that have for the airport and for the carriers?


As the OP stated, "the airport has the ability to withdraw capacity starting with the lower priority allocations." In other words, the airport tells the airlines they won't get as many seat allocations as they had been expecting, so the airlines will have to block seats, use smaller equipment, or reduce flights.
 
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sunking737
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:45 pm

SY to SNA Very Good. I'm sure its going to be from MSP
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wnflyguy
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:46 pm

WN takes International slot allocation Again.
Will they return with PVR and SJD or double up on SJD.

Flyguy
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slcdeltarumd11
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:02 pm

More carriers the better for airfares. Alot of people don't want to do the haul to LAX but do over price.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:09 pm

ScottB wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
heretothere wrote:
For background, airline access at SNA is ultimately governed by an agreement that caps passengers at a level that periodically increases. For the past several years, this cap has been set at 10.8 million, but 2021 will see that number increase to 11.8 million. To ensure the cap is not exceeded, the airport commission limits and allocates average daily departures (ADDs) and seats through a few different mechanisms. While last year the airport allocated a total of 11,831,743 seats with the 10.8 million passenger cap, this year the airport approved all airline requests for a total seat allocation of 15,540,176. With the cap now 11.8, the math brings us to the unsurprising conclusion that the flights are expected to be less full than past years. If somehow flights do end up fuller than expected, the airport has the ability to withdraw capacity starting with the lower priority allocations. Likewise, during the year the airport has the ability to reassign allocations that airlines are not utilizing.


Dumb question time: if load factors are higher than expected such that the total passenger count exceeds 11.8 million (perhaps unlikely next year, but at some point demand will pick back up), what consequences does that have for the airport and for the carriers?


As the OP stated, "the airport has the ability to withdraw capacity starting with the lower priority allocations." In other words, the airport tells the airlines they won't get as many seat allocations as they had been expecting, so the airlines will have to block seats, use smaller equipment, or reduce flights.


I think my question was a little different - and maybe unclear. At some point, presumably there will be too many passengers. Is the airport obligated to take action at that point? If so, what mechanism exists to force the airport to take action? And if air carriers fly the approved, but too full, schedules, is there any consequence for them?

Perhaps the airport is so anti-compeition that these are hypothetical questions, and I'd welcome insight on that too.
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HNLSLCPDX
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:11 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
More carriers the better for airfares. Alot of people don't want to do the haul to LAX but do over price.


Agree. I’m betting we’ll see G4 move their IDA, PVU, and maybe a couple others from LAX to SNA.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:14 pm

Cubsrule wrote:

I think my question was a little different - and maybe unclear. At some point, presumably there will be too many passengers. Is the airport obligated to take action at that point? If so, what mechanism exists to force the airport to take action? And if air carriers fly the approved, but too full, schedules, is there any consequence for them?

Perhaps the airport is so anti-compeition that these are hypothetical questions, and I'd welcome insight on that too.


Flights will be cancelled.

This almost happened a few years ago under a lower passenger cap. During late summer, the airport warned airlines there was a possibility that the cap could be breached, and in worst case scenario come December the airport would need to withdraw authorizations should this occur. Airlines we encouraged to consider smaller equipment, and or other voluntary reductions.
At the end it worked out, and no airport action was required.
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gmcc
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:16 pm

Couple of interesting things in the report. WN is still the largest carrier about 1/3 of the total seats, around 5 million. AS has moved into 2nd place, for i think the first time , at about 2.5 million seats with the big three right around 2 million each. Only AS and WN got double digit slots increases, so what are they going to do with them? I can see AS restoring 2 or 3 flights to SJC but don't know what else makes sense of them or WN.
 
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klm617
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:33 pm

Hopefully NK will bring SNA-DTW on line.
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gregn21
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:52 pm

Gotta think WN will bring back SJD and probably PVR. Would fit in with their systemwide shift to more leisure markets during covid. They could also bring back AUS, DAL, HOU, MDW. Hard to imagine the likes of SEA, PDX, MEX, MCI, STL ever coming back though. Those described adds would exhaust about half the new slots they've been given. The rest could be used to increase frequency to existing destinations.
 
Jshank83
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:07 am

Hopefully this means WN STL-SNA is back. It got cut because of “slot” issues before. It’s the highest unserved route for STL.

Might be something they hold off a bit until traffic comes back though.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:22 am

Looking at WN March 2021 schedule there already at slot capacity with this allocation.
OAK- 7
SMF- 7
PHX- 8
SJC-9
LAS-8
DEN-5
BNA-1
SLC-1
DAL-1
HOU-1
Total 48 slots
This allocation takes them to 49 slots.
Only thing missing is the returning SJD slot.
I believe every International slot is counted as 2 so US Airlines can do a domestic reposition Revenue flight for it's aircraft's.


Flyguy
Last edited by wnflyguy on Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:34 am, edited 3 times in total.
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flymco753
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:23 am

klm617 wrote:
Hopefully NK will bring SNA-DTW on line.
Safe assumption.
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SteveXC500
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:49 am

sunking737 wrote:
SY to SNA Very Good. I'm sure its going to be from MSP


Are you sure? SY has expanded from PDX, LAS, and others. I’d say probability is high it’s MSP but not guaranteed.
 
jplatts
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:51 am

flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Hopefully NK will bring SNA-DTW on line.
Safe assumption.


I agree that NK adding SNA-DTW nonstop service is a possibility with (a) NK's significant presence at DTW, (b) SNA being a leisure destination, and (c) NK already having nonstop service to other California destinations from DTW.
 
hbernal1
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:11 am

jplatts wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Hopefully NK will bring SNA-DTW on line.
Safe assumption.


I agree that NK adding SNA-DTW nonstop service is a possibility with (a) NK's significant presence at DTW, (b) SNA being a leisure destination, and (c) NK already having nonstop service to other California destinations from DTW.


I think they'll use up a slot for new service to DTW and use the other to add another LAS flight. If they manage that, it's not too bad a start to life at SNA for NK. It'll be interesting to see what happens to G4's LAX service now that they'll have slots at SNA. Fingers crossed NK getting more slots and G4 entering means fares at SNA start to drop in the long-term.
Last edited by hbernal1 on Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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sunking737
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:14 am

SCX has cut PDX, and closed the F/A base. I think the only flights they have now are to MSP and Amazon.
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brabb12
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:29 am

What's going on with JSX? Are they moving to the terminal or still staying at the FBO?
 
LASVegan
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:37 am

jplatts wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Hopefully NK will bring SNA-DTW on line.
Safe assumption.


I agree that NK adding SNA-DTW nonstop service is a possibility with (a) NK's significant presence at DTW, (b) SNA being a leisure destination, and (c) NK already having nonstop service to other California destinations from DTW.


I think we’re going to see maybe more LAS and/or OAK frequencies. LAS is very well connected to Spirit’s domestic network to the east of LAS so I really don’t see the need for a nonstop DTW flight. More LAS flights to make use of more connections to more places seems to make the best use of Spirit’s limited available slots. I’ll also call SEA as the wild card as in recent years NK has connected SEA to a few western cities (BUR, PHX, LAS, LAX[though now discontinued])
 
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SteveXC500
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:44 am

sunking737 wrote:
SCX has cut PDX, and closed the F/A base. I think the only flights they have now are to MSP and Amazon.


I’m pretty sure it’s MSP too but LAS and DFW have become focus cities.
 
UPS757Pilot
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:29 am

Two of the four the all-cargo allocations have been awarded to WN and UA, one each. FX and 5X will continue with their current allocations.
 
brabb12
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:30 am

UPS757Pilot wrote:
Two of the four the all-cargo allocations have been awarded to WN and UA, one each. FX and 5X will continue with their current allocations.

So nothing changes for 5X and FX basically?

5X. 4/7 days a week.
Fx. 5/7 days a week.

Do you think their could ever be a increase in cargo demand from SNA?
 
wnflyguy
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:26 am

Looking at the old WN numbers between SNA-SJD and SNA-PVR they had a lot of peaks and valleys in bookings.
I think seasonally they easily could follow AlaskaAir old pattern. Fly PVR Tuesday,Thursday and Saturday. Then fly SJD Sunday,Monday,Wednesday and Friday.
Without anyone else in the Orange County market they could get better returns this time around.

Flyguy
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wnflyguy
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:32 am

Allegiant been rumored to be coming to SNA for awhile now. I can still see them flying 6 to 7 destinations from SNA with a less than daily schedule using 2.66 daily slots.

Flyguy
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YYZORD
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:37 am

AC resuming YVR-SNA??? Will NH, BR, TK, and LH codeshare on this route?
 
airplaneboy
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:31 am

wnflyguy wrote:
Allegiant been rumored to be coming to SNA for awhile now. I can still see them flying 6 to 7 destinations from SNA with a less than daily schedule using 2.66 daily slots.

Flyguy


Just an amateur guess, but Disneyland’s reopening will be a major factor in the success of Allegiant’s service to SNA. They’d be better off flying to Mexico with the usual
cost-conscious leisure market they cater to. Unless SNA is the target market to other leisure destinations (which domestic markets are viable with their business model?)
 
HPRamper
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:25 am

brabb12 wrote:
UPS757Pilot wrote:
Two of the four the all-cargo allocations have been awarded to WN and UA, one each. FX and 5X will continue with their current allocations.

So nothing changes for 5X and FX basically?

5X. 4/7 days a week.
Fx. 5/7 days a week.

Do you think their could ever be a increase in cargo demand from SNA?

No.
And that's not to say anything about the market, just the airport itself and its proximity to ONT which has become the integrator hub for the region. Single short runway at SNA is just so limiting when ONT/SBD/RIV are all so close and more convenient for heavies and round-the-clock cargo ops.
 
Ishrion
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:06 pm

Spirit's adding PHX-SNA and increasing LAS-SNA to 2x daily from January 6

https://thepointsguy.com/news/spirit-ai ... las-vegas/
 
jholio
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Thu Nov 05, 2020 10:43 pm

brabb12 wrote:
What's going on with JSX? Are they moving to the terminal or still staying at the FBO?

It seems their passenger allocation was renewed with a caveat. Emphasis mine. I'm not sure if the bolded passage was present in the 2020 allocation.

Passenger Capacity Allocations to Commuter Carriers
SkyWest Airlines has requested an allocation of 81,610 passengers, and JSX/Delux has requested an allocation of 95,070 passengers for the 2021 Plan Year. Because the number of passengers requested is below the 400,000 passengers "prioritized" for use by Commuter Carriers, the Airport Director recommends that 81,610 passengers be allocated to SkyWest Airlines and 95,070 passengers be allocated to JSX/Delux for use during the 2021 Plan Year, for a total of 176,680 passengers. This proposed allocation of Commuter Carrier capacity is reflected in Attachment B of this ASR.

Importantly, these Commuter Air Carrier allocation recommendations are contingent upon the Commuter Carriers agreeing to provide services and engage in activities related to service of air passengers and their baggage through and in facilities designated for that purpose by the County.
 
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Chasensfo
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:33 pm

Very interesting to see ULCC expansion at SNA, which is usually a higher priced option. I couldn't believe it when I saw Spirit charging $150-200 one way on SNA-OAK right after the route was announced. I mean, seriously, who is going to pay that to then be nickeled and dimed on Spirit?
 
MIflyer12
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:24 am

JetBlue has dates loaded out more than 21 days where the cheapest fares is $280. Spirit looks good.
 
pranav7478
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Fri Nov 06, 2020 1:18 am

Chasensfo wrote:
Very interesting to see ULCC expansion at SNA, which is usually a higher priced option. I couldn't believe it when I saw Spirit charging $150-200 one way on SNA-OAK right after the route was announced. I mean, seriously, who is going to pay that to then be nickeled and dimed on Spirit?

that was only for the first week before prices were adjusted. now it is like 25 bucks one way even during thanksgiving. patience
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KLMatSJC
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Fri Nov 06, 2020 1:26 am

jholio wrote:
Importantly, these Commuter Air Carrier allocation recommendations are contingent upon the Commuter Carriers agreeing to provide services and engage in activities related to service of air passengers and their baggage through and in facilities designated for that purpose by the County.

Any idea on what exactly this means?
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alasizon
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:47 am

KLMatSJC wrote:
jholio wrote:
Importantly, these Commuter Air Carrier allocation recommendations are contingent upon the Commuter Carriers agreeing to provide services and engage in activities related to service of air passengers and their baggage through and in facilities designated for that purpose by the County.

Any idea on what exactly this means?


I would take it to mean that they are forcing JSX to use the "Commuter" gates as opposed to an FBO and that should JSX refuse, they lose their allocation.
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flyfresno
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Fri Nov 06, 2020 4:14 am

gmcc wrote:
Couple of interesting things in the report. WN is still the largest carrier about 1/3 of the total seats, around 5 million. AS has moved into 2nd place, for i think the first time , at about 2.5 million seats with the big three right around 2 million each. Only AS and WN got double digit slots increases, so what are they going to do with them? I can see AS restoring 2 or 3 flights to SJC but don't know what else makes sense of them or WN.


Could see once daily FAT on OO. SNA has been identified as a high priority airport with reduced/waved fees for new service.

Maybe also places like RNO, BOI, EUG?
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Fri Nov 06, 2020 4:25 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
More carriers the better for airfares. Alot of people don't want to do the haul to LAX but do over price.


Yes it's always good to have more options. But I had always been under the impression that SNA was surrounded by an ultra wealthy city and suburbs. I didn't think they would be price sensitive enough for ULCC service.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Fri Nov 06, 2020 4:32 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
More carriers the better for airfares. Alot of people don't want to do the haul to LAX but do over price.


Yes it's always good to have more options. But I had always been under the impression that SNA was surrounded by an ultra wealthy city and suburbs. I didn't think they would be price sensitive enough for ULCC service.


Some of the wealthiest people in the country live nearby, but so do millions of middle class families...
 
B737Captain1980
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Fri Nov 06, 2020 5:49 am

With only 1 runway available for carriers, there is going to be severe gridlock when flights return to pre covid levels.
 
LASVegan
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:07 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
More carriers the better for airfares. Alot of people don't want to do the haul to LAX but do over price.


Yes it's always good to have more options. But I had always been under the impression that SNA was surrounded by an ultra wealthy city and suburbs. I didn't think they would be price sensitive enough for ULCC service.


Orange County has the same population of metro Denver, I’m sure if they dig deep enough they can find a few trailer parks or ghettos to help fill up a few Spirit and Frontier flights a day. I say that kidding and completely in jest. There are 3 million people in Orange County. While it is quite affluent I’m sure there are more than enough people that would choose an ULCC. While F9s and NKs main demographic are typically people with perhaps not an abundance of disposable income, some people that choose these airlines are people of means that are just looking for a cheap, basic seat.
 
nine4nine
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Re: SNA 2021 Slot Allocation - AC/G4/SY Awarded Slots

Fri Nov 06, 2020 5:09 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
More carriers the better for airfares. Alot of people don't want to do the haul to LAX but do over price.


Yes it's always good to have more options. But I had always been under the impression that SNA was surrounded by an ultra wealthy city and suburbs. I didn't think they would be price sensitive enough for ULCC service.



You’d be surprised. We have a vast amount of wealth here in OC, but in my industry and experience working for those types, they are extremely cheap and want everything for nothing, probably why they are wealthy.

I think with the right routes NK and the ULCC likes of will do very well at SNA. Wouldn’t mind seeing SNA-SJD/PVR return.
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