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DL757NYC
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UPS fleet

Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:04 am

I noticed that UPS has an incredibly young fleet. They purchased most of their aircraft directly from Boeing. Even their oldest 757 has only 24k cycles 34khours since 1987. their MD-11 fleet they acquired with low time. Across the fleet low utilization.

Could we see aircraft stay with UPS for 60+ years and beyond?
 
VSMUT
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Re: UPS FLEET

Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:34 am

I doubt it. Getting spare parts and support will eventually become an issue as the types get older and rarer. They will surely last a long time, but 60 is too far.

For comparisons sake, the 707 entered service 62 years ago (and last delivery 42 years ago), and except for military aircraft and the odd 3rd world or Iranian airframe, those pretty much disappeared from the skies already in the 1990s.
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: UPS FLEET

Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:12 am

VSMUT wrote:
I doubt it. Getting spare parts and support will eventually become an issue as the types get older and rarer. They will surely last a long time, but 60 is too far.

For comparisons sake, the 707 entered service 62 years ago (and last delivery 42 years ago), and except for military aircraft and the odd 3rd world or Iranian airframe, those pretty much disappeared from the skies already in the 1990s.


True, but that was much more of a case of the type being obsoleted almost straight away. Most of the Blue Chip 1st tier operators had unloaded theirs —usually in favor of 747s, 767s, L1011s & DC-10s— completely by the late 1970s, with fleet drawdowns happening ten years before that.

It is true that spares become more expensive with time, but this will not likely hurt the MD11 fleet as fast it would have with the 707. The MD11 can only be replaced by new aircraft in its class, costing much more than their MX bill, or used aircraft that do not do much to lower MX costs and reliability issues. The 707 was up against dramatically superior performance, reliability and capability. At a time when they were still being paid off.

And I would say that the MD11 is the most vulnerable for replacement in the UPS fleet. For the rest, it is worthy of note that the low utilization numbers mean BCA or Airbus would have to drive a super compelling case for replacement. I can understand the need for more 767s soon, but that is as much for capacity upgrades as for replacing anything.
"Nous ne sommes pas infectés. Il n'y a pas d'infection ici..."
 
raylee67
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Re: UPS FLEET

Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:21 am

DL757NYC wrote:
Across the fleet low utilization.



Planes from most courier companies would have low utilization given their business model, especially for their short haul fleet.
319/20/21 332/33 342/43/45 359/51 388 707 717 732/36/3G/38/39 74R/42/43/44/4E/48 757 762/63 772/7L/73/7W 788/89 D10 M80 135/40/45 175/90 DH1/4 CRJ/R7 L10
AY LH OU SR BA FI LX
AA DL UA NW AC CP WS FL NK PD
CI NH SQ KA CX JL BR OZ TG KE CA CZ NZ JQ RS
 
VSMUT
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Re: UPS FLEET

Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:08 am

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
The MD11 can only be replaced by new aircraft in its class, costing much more than their MX bill, or used aircraft that do not do much to lower MX costs and reliability issues.


That's not true. It is easily replaced by new and converted 767-300ERs, the A330-200P2F and -300P2F and the 777-200F. The acquisition price of a converted 767 is low and the A330 is dropping like a rock. Maintenance costs will be lower as well, especially with pretty young examples of the 767 and A330 entering conversion these days. Give it a few years and replacing the MD-11 with the A330P2F will be even more advantageous. The MD-11 will definitely never make it to 60 years.

As for the 757, that type will easily be replaced with one of the various A321P2F programs in the running. If there is one type that stands a chance of lasting 60 years, it will be the 767. First flight 39 years ago, with a handful yet to be delivered. The latest of these will likely see 20 years of service, bring the type to 60 years, even if the individual aircraft won't reach two-thirds of that. It also helps that the USAF and FedEx will keep numbers up. As a type, the A300 is only 12 years from that mark, but I don't know how much longer those will last, and the UPS examples are anyway delivered after year 2000.
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: UPS FLEET

Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:19 am

VSMUT wrote:
DarkSnowyNight wrote:
The MD11 can only be replaced by new aircraft in its class, costing much more than their MX bill, or used aircraft that do not do much to lower MX costs and reliability issues.


That's not true.


Sure it is. Parcels are largely volume before weight. For that, you would need four 763s to replace every three MD11s. Sooner or later, that will have to happen, but there is not an incentive in the near term.

VSMUT wrote:
It is easily replaced by new and converted 767-300ERs, the A330-200P2F and -300P2F and the 777-200F. The acquisition price of a converted 767 is low and the A330 is dropping like a rock.


Lower than free? Because that is what they would be up against. It will be a long time for the MX costs of the MD fleet get that far out of hand, given the low utilization and relative large spares pool.

VSMUT wrote:
Maintenance costs will be lower as well, especially with pretty young examples of the 767 and A330 entering conversion these days. Give it a few years and replacing the MD-11 with the A330P2F will be even more advantageous. The MD-11 will definitely never make it to 60 years.


But again, that cost difference would have to be outstanding. The difference here between the MDs & the 707s you mentioned is that there is no game changing aircraft in the market, even at the P2F level, that will alter the operational savings profile to the point where MD11s become untenable to operate, especially their competition is doing largely the same.

As I mentioned before, the 707s did not go away because they were prohibitively expensive to operate so much as there was an immediate capacity and efficiency gain. There is not anything like that here.

I do not think they will get to 60 years out of the MDs, & I should have spelled that out more clearly. But they will probably be around longer than we expect, and will not be exited for reasons relating to obsolescence or MX costs. Those just are not factors here.


VSMUT wrote:
As for the 757, that type will easily be replaced with one of the various A321P2F programs in the running.


At UPS? Yeah, very likely. Since they are centered more around volume than weight, they do not need they extra lift the 757s provide as long as the range is similar enough.

VSMUT wrote:
If there is one type that stands a chance of lasting 60 years, it will be the 767. First flight 39 years ago, with a handful yet to be delivered. The latest of these will likely see 20 years of service, bring the type to 60 years, even if the individual aircraft won't reach two-thirds of that.


I agree with your point at large, but I think the poster was talking individual lifetimes. And a 767 has a chance of that, as they are in no danger of Cycling or Timing Out.
"Nous ne sommes pas infectés. Il n'y a pas d'infection ici..."
 
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Polot
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Re: UPS FLEET

Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:27 am

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
DarkSnowyNight wrote:
The MD11 can only be replaced by new aircraft in its class, costing much more than their MX bill, or used aircraft that do not do much to lower MX costs and reliability issues.


That's not true.


Sure it is. Parcels are largely volume before weight. For that, you would need four 763s to replace every three MD11s. Sooner or later, that will have to happen, but there is not an incentive in the near term.

Well there is a 77W conversion in the works, and plenty of relatively nice new feedstock thanks to the pandemic...

Along with of course A332/A333s, again whose feedstock will be given a nice shot in the arm thanks to the pandemic.


I don’t know why there is all this talk about the 707 while everyone is completely ignoring how UPS gladly operated the DC-8 all the way up to 2009.
 
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747classic
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Re: UPS FLEET

Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:40 pm

The UPS MD11 fleet was increased just before the cargo peak season with the two last built MD11 aircraft (L/N 646 & 646), acquired at the start of 2020 from Lufthansa Cargo (via Boeing) and now added to the UPS fleet after HMV at San Antonio.
UPS registrations N261UP and N262UP.
See : https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/n261up
And : https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/n262up
Operating a twin over the ocean, you're always one engine failure from a total emergency.
 
Boof02671
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Re: UPS FLEET

Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:51 pm

UPS is taking delivery of used 763 P2F, CAM has leased several to them already

And GE and IAI have already launched a 773 P2F program.

https://www.ge.com/news/press-releases/ ... er-program
 
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747classic
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Re: UPS FLEET

Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:05 pm

Boof02671 wrote:
UPS is taking delivery of used 763 P2F, CAM has leased several to them already



These 5 CAM 767-300BCF and 767-300BDSF aircraft are leased to cater for the capacity shorfall during the cockpit upgrade of the UPS 767,757 and A300 fleet.
Perhaps some leases will be extended until all ordered 767-300F's are delivered..
Operating a twin over the ocean, you're always one engine failure from a total emergency.
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: UPS FLEET

Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:46 pm

While 60 is unlikely, I believe the 757 fleet can easily go beyond 40 years for UPS. The cycles and hours are sufficiently low that UPS isn’t going to hit some of the expensive structural inspections that come around 40-50K cycles.
 
GSOtoIND
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Re: UPS FLEET

Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:36 pm

There's a good chance the older 767s approach 60 years of service. Their oldest, N301UP, recently celebrated her 25th birthday, and has 60k hours and 20k cycles as of June. Relatively speaking, that's nothing.
IND. 2018: BOS/AUA/MIA/DEN Next: LAS/SLC/DEN
 
Bhoy
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Re: UPS FLEET

Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:14 pm

Polot wrote:
I don’t know why there is all this talk about the 707 while everyone is completely ignoring how UPS gladly operated the DC-8 all the way up to 2009.

Is there not an issue that the 707 was on the blacklist through much of the Western World due to the JT3 not meeting Stage III noise requirements by the early 90s, while the DC-8s UPS operated were the modified -70 series, with CFM56s, which had no noise restrictions.
 
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Spacepope
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Re: UPS FLEET

Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:20 pm

Bhoy wrote:
Polot wrote:
I don’t know why there is all this talk about the 707 while everyone is completely ignoring how UPS gladly operated the DC-8 all the way up to 2009.

Is there not an issue that the 707 was on the blacklist through much of the Western World due to the JT3 not meeting Stage III noise requirements by the early 90s, while the DC-8s UPS operated were the modified -70 series, with CFM56s, which had no noise restrictions.


No, the issue was that the USAF bought up many hundreds of 707s for their engines and pylons for the KC-135 reengine project. There was simply not the critical mass of airframes after the early 1980s.

And I'd be cautions with the general statements of low utilization on the MD-11 fleet here. They are heavily used on transoceanic duty and a SDF-CGN-SDF round trip will still eat up nearly 18 hours of airframe life a day.
The last of the famous international playboys
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: UPS FLEET

Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:31 pm

[quote="Spacepope"][quote="Bhoy"][quote="Polot"]I don’t know why there is all this talk about the 707 while everyone is completely ignoring how UPS gladly operated the DC-8 all the way up to 2009.[/quote]
Is there not an issue that the 707 was on the blacklist through much of the Western World due to the JT3 not meeting Stage III noise requirements by the early 90s, while the DC-8s UPS operated were the modified -70 series, with CFM56s, which had no noise restrictions.[/quote]

No, the issue was that the USAF bought up many hundreds of 707s for their engines and pylons for the KC-135 reengine project. There was simply not the critical mass of airframes after the early 1980s.

And I'd be cautions with the general statements of low utilization on the MD-11 fleet here. They are heavily used on transoceanic duty and a SDF-CGN-SDF round trip will still eat up nearly 18 hours of airframe life a day.[/quote]
They are pulling all the MD’s into the domestic network. That should have been completed in August.

The MDs biggest problem is when they break it isn’t usually a 20 minute deferral it’s pretty spectacular. Better to have them domestic where you can launch a recovery quick versus dropping it into some random airport overseas where you have limited or no options to make service.

The 757s will be around a while. They are just about perfect for the reliever hubs like RFD/PHL/ONT outside of peak. And even better for smaller gateways that don’t need the lift of a wide body. The problem is what will compliment and then replace it? The A321F is probably the best thing going right now.

767s will soldier on for a while, the upgrades right now prove that. Same with the Airbuses. Frankly I think the only changes will be top up orders for the 767s.eventually though they will need to address the feeder network. Relying on 40 year old aircraft isn’t going to last much longer. The strain gets worse and worse every peak.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
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Re: UPS FLEET

Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:01 pm

GSOtoIND wrote:
There's a good chance the older 767s approach 60 years of service. Their oldest, N301UP, recently celebrated her 25th birthday, and has 60k hours and 20k cycles as of June. Relatively speaking, that's nothing.

Especially since the USAF will see to a critical mass for supply chain maintenance for a long, long time.
 
UPS757Pilot
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Re: UPS FLEET

Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:45 pm

jetblueguy22 wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
Bhoy wrote:

I agree. Now that FedEx is upgrading their fleet and we are starting to see a CRJ200 in SDF along with the Falcons, I wonder what the future will be there. They probably could use some newer metal.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: UPS fleet

Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:06 am

I certainly don't see them keeping 60 year old frames regardless of how low the hours and cycles are. Efficiency matters less on a domestic cargo fleet than it does to passenger carriers given their low utilization, but eventually maintenance costs tip economics in favor of fleet replacement. It's entirely likely that a 60 year old type will exist in the fleet — the A300 is technically 41 years old. Of course, the A300s UPS operates are mostly 2000s builds, and they're technically A310s wearing an A300's clothes, but it's not impossible that they could still be around for another 19 years. They're about to receive some pretty substantial cockpit upgrades anyway. Heck, they had the DC-8 up until about 10 years ago. Given how much more sophisticated the A306 is than the DC-8 (despite still technically being a dinosaur), I fully expect it to hang around for a while.
 
wjcandee
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Re: UPS FLEET

Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:02 am

747classic wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
UPS is taking delivery of used 763 P2F, CAM has leased several to them already



These 5 CAM 767-300BCF and 767-300BDSF aircraft are leased to cater for the capacity shorfall during the cockpit upgrade of the UPS 767,757 and A300 fleet.
Perhaps some leases will be extended until all ordered 767-300F's are delivered..


I would be shocked if that were true, but I can't quickly put my hands on any announcement by ATSG as to the duration of those leases. The cockpit upgrade on the 757 is complete and the upgrade on the 767 will be done in less than 6 months from now (at least 41 are complete out of 69, and they are averaging at least one per week). The Primus Epic cockpit upgrade on the A300s is a more-extensive avionics upgrade, and so will take longer per aircraft than the 767 target of 2 weeks per aircraft, but with only 52 A300s needing to be done, a vendor or vendors clearly can be found to run multiple lines to get it done in a couple of years. I expect that the success of the Rockwell Collins 757/767 upgrade will motivate an expediting of the A300 program. It looks like the 767 program is now up to 3 lines (2 at AMES (ATSG) and 1 at Cascade) to expedite things. That's about 8 more units per line, or about 16 weeks to finish.

I can't see ATSG taking on the capital expense of converting 4 aircraft and purchasing a 5th, just to lease to UPS for 2 years. The typical ask on an ATSG dry lease now is 10 years, with an extension option, although some of the earlier Amazon 762 leases were for 5 with renewals (because they were old and idle), and the 763 leases were for 7 with renewals, now all amended to 10 or more. ATSG could easily have leased out those UPS aircraft on longer leases, so that doesn't make sense. And they purposefully acquired FADEC-engined aircraft for the UPS leases. They deserve to be spanked if they didn't get at least a minimum 5-year lease term.

My understanding of the reason for the 5 dry-leases was because UPS was using outside lift during non-Peak, which is a violation of the pilot contract except in an expansion period under certain circumstances unless UPS is doing everything it can to get its hands on more of its own metal. I understood that that was the impetus for the leases, but dang if I can't find where the lease lengths were disclosed.
 
GSOtoIND
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Re: UPS fleet

Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:49 am

atcsundevil wrote:
I certainly don't see them keeping 60 year old frames regardless of how low the hours and cycles are. Efficiency matters less on a domestic cargo fleet than it does to passenger carriers given their low utilization, but eventually maintenance costs tip economics in favor of fleet replacement. It's entirely likely that a 60 year old type will exist in the fleet — the A300 is technically 41 years old. Of course, the A300s UPS operates are mostly 2000s builds, and they're technically A310s wearing an A300's clothes, but it's not impossible that they could still be around for another 19 years. They're about to receive some pretty substantial cockpit upgrades anyway. Heck, they had the DC-8 up until about 10 years ago. Given how much more sophisticated the A306 is than the DC-8 (despite still technically being a dinosaur), I fully expect it to hang around for a while.

I do think 50 years is more realistic than 60, but I wouldn't rule out either. We barely missed out on DC-10s flying on their 50th birthdays, but I don't think that's because they were hangar queens for FedEx. Rather, it's because FedEx had too many planes and not enough boxes to fill them with, and the oldest planes are the most obvious ones to retire in a situation like that. I don't think any of us can predict what kind of financial performance UPS will be putting up in, say, 2050, and that's the question that will decide the fate of these aircraft.
IND. 2018: BOS/AUA/MIA/DEN Next: LAS/SLC/DEN
 
amdiesen
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Re: UPS fleet

Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:33 am

Having spent time and intellect on specific/focus topics and sharing my results, I would appreciate constructive data and criticism that supports the objective of solving for a greater understanding.

DL757NYC wrote:
I noticed that UPS has an incredibly young fleet.

Thank you for the topic discussion. To support the inquisitive thesis:
Average main line fleet age, excluding feeders, of the integrators (FX,5X,DHL) is ~21 +/- 1 year; 20.2,20.1,22.1 respectively.

DL757NYC wrote:
Could we see aircraft stay with UPS for 60+ years and beyond?

Respecting the intent of the query, would you consider my rewording and supporting the question?
What are the average life expectancies of freighter aircraft and what is UPS's 'tilt'?

My hypothesized model estimates the average life expectancy of a wide-body freighter to be 34 +/- 3years.
-- Size inversely skews expectation, Conversions negatively impact a freighter's life.
There are ~33 current airlines that buy new-build wide-body freighters and there are ~41 airlines that exclusively acquire used or converted freighter aircraft.
-- The second group tilts toward operating older frames and keeping marginal (business case) frames active.
UPS's tilts: 1)new-build preference, 2)reliability drives replacement decisions

DL757NYC wrote:
...Even their oldest 757 has only 24k cycles 34khours since 1987. their MD-11 fleet they acquired with low time...


hypothesis: UPS will be the launch customer of the A321neoF(^1) bypassing A321P2Fs; significantly later in the future.
hypo: UPS's 767 fleet will evolve into a mix of new-build b763F's and GEnx powered b764F's(^1). The b764Fs will support 'growth'. Until the b764F becomes a reality, UPS will lease b763 conversions to fill short/mid-term needs; returned as the b764F's come online.
hypo: The MD11 fleet neatly fits a short&mid-term service objective; range.domestic, frame.('volume' / 'gate real-estate') <maximized>. Reliability and the 'squirrelly' nature of landing a MD11 in windy conditions will drive the replacement decision. One should not discount a fourth MD11 accident grounding fleets or expediting replacement decisions(^2). UPS tilts stoic toward escalating maintenance costs for fully depreciated assets.
hypo: The A359F will be the headline replacement for the MD11 late in the decade. The b764f will supplement the replacement efforts where lower capacity needs are being filled by the mad-dog. *for intellectual honesty, I have been espousing the GEnx powered b78JF as UPS's aspirational mid sized wide-body replacement; however, the a359f's nuanced flexibilities as applied to UPS's service needs tilt the scale. Both frames create a value 'add' for 5X, and likely a negotiation 'add'.
possibility: The two b744bcf's will be retired on 1) the tail end of b748f deliveries and 2) their incremental "D" check.

The airline industry is highly elastic. Survivability necessitates airlines maintain a material number of unencumbered and depreciated frames. A metaphor for current financial analytic theory driving fleet replacement strategies could be aptly encapsulated in: "Picking up coins in front of a steam roller".

(^1)
jagraham wrote:
...Finally, changes in technology can dramatically change the equation. Whereas previous generation engines went to the shop every year or two, GTF and LEAP engines promise only 3 to 5 shop visits over a 25 year lifespan. If they achieve that goal, even the freight airlines have to pay attention. And they have a lot of 757s and 767s.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1433187&start=200
(^2)Imagine this design issue as a recurring factor in windowless offices in both Memphis and Atlanta; sweat stained brooks brothers shirts hanging wrinkled on analyst and decision makers that are no longer the finely tuned athletic forms they once pictured in their minds. "It's a great freighter aircraft; durable, long lasting, expand the fleet, commit to a heavy maintenance refurbishment,... sh*t... ignoring that factor isn't making it go away..."
puzzling over:
1) proper amortization of long-lived assets where costs and revenue are complex, in a technologically evolving environment.
2) the economics of gate real estate
 
worldranger
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Re: UPS fleet

Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:26 am

Any definitive date on when the 756 and more specifically the A300 cockpit upgrades will be complete across fleet?
 
wjcandee
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Re: UPS fleet

Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:27 am

767-400F? Didn't know they were going ahead with that. Couldn't find anything more than trial balloons from 10 years ago and the usual talk about re-engined Kluges of existing airplanes.
 
wjcandee
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Re: UPS fleet

Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:09 am

worldranger wrote:
Any definitive date on when the 756 and more specifically the A300 cockpit upgrades will be complete across fleet?


As noted above, with regard to the Rockwell Collins LDS, the 757s are finished, the 767s have roughly 28 to go, and there are 3 lines doing them at about 2 weeks per plane, 2 lines at AMES at ILN and 1 line at Cascade at YXX. So figure they'll be finished in under 6 months. (56 divided by 3 equals about 19 weeks.)

The Honeywell Primus-Epic-based avionics upgrade on the A300 is more-robust and extensive, with a new FMS, new GPS Nav, new integrated ACARS and new weather radar, plus the LCD displays. There are 52 aircraft to modify. Once a vendor or vendors gets the work flow down, figure 3-4 weeks per aircraft. If they run 3 lines, they could get the whole project done in under a year and a half. So figure some time in 2022.
 
amdiesen
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Re: UPS fleet

Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:03 am

wjcandee wrote:
767-400F? Didn't know they were going ahead with that. Couldn't find anything more than trial balloons from 10 years ago and the usual talk about re-engined Kluges of existing airplanes.


yes, it remains an unconfirmed paper airplane

Reuters: Boeing considering 757-Plus and 767-X, pages 13-15 have informative discussions on the B764F
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1445405&start=600
One leaves the thread with a level of confidence that Boeing has internally endorsed the project.

Distilled you get the key points:
2028 emissions standards ends B763 new-build production, maintaining a D-class wing compatible with Memphis and Louisville layouts, GEnX engines off the B748, provides a civilian continuation for the B767 assembly line, offers a differentiated (higher volume) product for the airlines, minimal cost upgrade, some performance impairments over the B763, healthy 'market' skepticism by A-netters.
puzzling over:
1) proper amortization of long-lived assets where costs and revenue are complex, in a technologically evolving environment.
2) the economics of gate real estate
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: UPS fleet

Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:18 pm

wjcandee wrote:
worldranger wrote:
Any definitive date on when the 756 and more specifically the A300 cockpit upgrades will be complete across fleet?


As noted above, with regard to the Rockwell Collins LDS, the 757s are finished, the 767s have roughly 28 to go, and there are 3 lines doing them at about 2 weeks per plane, 2 lines at AMES at ILN and 1 line at Cascade at YXX. So figure they'll be finished in under 6 months. (56 divided by 3 equals about 19 weeks.)

The Honeywell Primus-Epic-based avionics upgrade on the A300 is more-robust and extensive, with a new FMS, new GPS Nav, new integrated ACARS and new weather radar, plus the LCD displays. There are 52 aircraft to modify. Once a vendor or vendors gets the work flow down, figure 3-4 weeks per aircraft. If they run 3 lines, they could get the whole project done in under a year and a half. So figure some time in 2022.

The last upgrade for the year is probably in right now. Unless it’s required by an AD they aren’t going to have any of the fleet in optional checks during peak.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: UPS fleet

Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:21 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
I certainly don't see them keeping 60 year old frames regardless of how low the hours and cycles are. Efficiency matters less on a domestic cargo fleet than it does to passenger carriers given their low utilization, but eventually maintenance costs tip economics in favor of fleet replacement. It's entirely likely that a 60 year old type will exist in the fleet — the A300 is technically 41 years old. Of course, the A300s UPS operates are mostly 2000s builds, and they're technically A310s wearing an A300's clothes, but it's not impossible that they could still be around for another 19 years. They're about to receive some pretty substantial cockpit upgrades anyway. Heck, they had the DC-8 up until about 10 years ago. Given how much more sophisticated the A306 is than the DC-8 (despite still technically being a dinosaur), I fully expect it to hang around for a while.

The low utilization belief that everyone has on here is definitely more a thing of the past. Do they run the fleets as hard as B6/WN? Absolutely not. But the 2DA network has grown so much that the out and back nature of the schedules is becoming less and less common.

Is it a lot harder to get an airframe off the 1DA launch than the 2DA? Absolutely. But it’s becoming more of a challenge every month.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
wjcandee
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Re: UPS fleet

Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:00 pm

jetblueguy22 wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
worldranger wrote:
Any definitive date on when the 756 and more specifically the A300 cockpit upgrades will be complete across fleet?


As noted above, with regard to the Rockwell Collins LDS, the 757s are finished, the 767s have roughly 28 to go, and there are 3 lines doing them at about 2 weeks per plane, 2 lines at AMES at ILN and 1 line at Cascade at YXX. So figure they'll be finished in under 6 months. (56 divided by 3 equals about 19 weeks.)

The Honeywell Primus-Epic-based avionics upgrade on the A300 is more-robust and extensive, with a new FMS, new GPS Nav, new integrated ACARS and new weather radar, plus the LCD displays. There are 52 aircraft to modify. Once a vendor or vendors gets the work flow down, figure 3-4 weeks per aircraft. If they run 3 lines, they could get the whole project done in under a year and a half. So figure some time in 2022.

The last upgrade for the year is probably in right now. Unless it’s required by an AD they aren’t going to have any of the fleet in optional checks during peak.


Understood. Which is why I said six months for work that will take 4-5 months, and same for the A300s.

I'm curious what your thinking is about the lease length on the CAM/ATSG 763s.
 
UPS757Pilot
Posts: 165
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Re: UPS fleet

Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:04 pm

jetblueguy22 - Is CAE N/A now as another 1DA/2DA sort option? I've heard its a ground sort only, which is too bad as there's a lot of capacity on the ramp for our growing operations, especially as it's easy to get in and out of there with regard to ATC, traffic, etc..
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: UPS fleet

Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:42 pm

jetblueguy22 wrote:
The low utilization belief that everyone has on here is definitely more a thing of the past. Do they run the fleets as hard as B6/WN? Absolutely not.

Low utilization compared to most passenger carriers was the only comparison I was attempting to make. From what I recall being told, UPS/FDX are roughly on par with Allegiant in terms of utilization — something around 8hrs/day.
 
Dominion301
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Re: UPS FLEET

Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:12 pm

Polot wrote:
DarkSnowyNight wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

That's not true.


Sure it is. Parcels are largely volume before weight. For that, you would need four 763s to replace every three MD11s. Sooner or later, that will have to happen, but there is not an incentive in the near term.

Well there is a 77W conversion in the works, and plenty of relatively nice new feedstock thanks to the pandemic...

Along with of course A332/A333s, again whose feedstock will be given a nice shot in the arm thanks to the pandemic.


I don’t know why there is all this talk about the 707 while everyone is completely ignoring how UPS gladly operated the DC-8 all the way up to 2009.


The only thing that did in the DC-8 was the 2008 financial crisis. If it weren’t for that, the 8 would have continued on well into the 2010s.
 
thedreamthejohn
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Re: UPS fleet

Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:51 pm

the leased 767s stay in the euro network as they have different sized lower pit doors that dont really flow well in the domestic network. different sized cans are needed. so because of that, that frees up standard freighter 767s operate domestically.
moving the md11s and very recently the -400s to a more domestic operating theater, (just starting to see that with the 400s), the cycles/day will start to rise.

these large tails are built to be in the air. double turning them off 1DA and 2DA 4 times a week and a couple legs on the weekend, will start to rear its head, especially on the ex eva and cargolux jumbos.
 
VSMUT
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Re: UPS FLEET

Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:28 am

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
It is easily replaced by new and converted 767-300ERs, the A330-200P2F and -300P2F and the 777-200F. The acquisition price of a converted 767 is low and the A330 is dropping like a rock.


Lower than free? Because that is what they would be up against. It will be a long time for the MX costs of the MD fleet get that far out of hand, given the low utilization and relative large spares pool.


Keeping old aircraft in the air is far from free. As aircraft age they develop more and more frequent issues requiring more downtime and more manpower to maintain. On top of that, spare parts suppliers will start pulling out as the market shrinks, making them more expensive and harder to source. The MD-11 is not immune to that, we have already seen FedEx begin to retire some examples and for Lufthansa the justification for replacing the MD-11 fleet entirely with very expensive new 777Fs was already there.


DarkSnowyNight wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
DarkSnowyNight wrote:
The MD11 can only be replaced by new aircraft in its class, costing much more than their MX bill, or used aircraft that do not do much to lower MX costs and reliability issues.


That's not true.


Sure it is. Parcels are largely volume before weight. For that, you would need four 763s to replace every three MD11s. Sooner or later, that will have to happen, but there is not an incentive in the near term.


I've flown cargo aircraft for UPS myself, I know how it works. But there is rarely a direct replacement for anything in aviation that ticks all the boxes, and so airlines will have to adapt to whatever is available. FedEx replaced the initial MD-11s with a combination of 767-300Fs and 777Fs. Lufthansa upgraded to the 777F. Eventually UPS will make a decision also, and given the stuff we already heard about Airbus offering an A330neo based freighter to UPS and Amazon, and Boeing talking about on based on a 767-400ER with 787 engines, it probably won't be too many years out in the future. I'm not saying any of those are likely to happen, but Airbus and Boeing don't begin pitching special versions like that unless the customer has started voicing interest in an aircraft of that class...
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: UPS fleet

Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:30 am

UPS757Pilot wrote:
jetblueguy22 - Is CAE N/A now as another 1DA/2DA sort option? I've heard its a ground sort only, which is too bad as there's a lot of capacity on the ramp for our growing operations, especially as it's easy to get in and out of there with regard to ATC, traffic, etc..

I no longer wear the shield, but prior to my leaving in July it wasn’t being discussed. It’s basically a ground international sort right now and I’m pretty sure they screwed up the labor advantage they have with air because of it. Really until PHL starts running out of capacity it isn’t really a great option for package flows. You’re really limited to the coastal stuff. They’ll scale up another gateway on the west coast before they touch CAE.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
UPS757Pilot
Posts: 165
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Re: UPS fleet

Fri Oct 30, 2020 3:58 pm

jetblueguy22 wrote:
UPS757Pilot wrote:
jetblueguy22 - Is CAE N/A now as another 1DA/2DA sort option? I've heard its a ground sort only, which is too bad as there's a lot of capacity on the ramp for our growing operations, especially as it's easy to get in and out of there with regard to ATC, traffic, etc..

I no longer wear the shield, but prior to my leaving in July it wasn’t being discussed. It’s basically a ground international sort right now and I’m pretty sure they screwed up the labor advantage they have with air because of it. Really until PHL starts running out of capacity it isn’t really a great option for package flows. You’re really limited to the coastal stuff. They’ll scale up another gateway on the west coast before they touch CAE.
Good stuff and enjoy your retirement. These next few years are going to be interesting with regard to the air side and ongoing growth on the 1DA and 2DA operations.
 
HPRamper
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Re: UPS fleet

Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:52 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
jetblueguy22 wrote:
The low utilization belief that everyone has on here is definitely more a thing of the past. Do they run the fleets as hard as B6/WN? Absolutely not.

Low utilization compared to most passenger carriers was the only comparison I was attempting to make. From what I recall being told, UPS/FDX are roughly on par with Allegiant in terms of utilization — something around 8hrs/day.

For the 757s that are generally used on shorter routes, it's 8-12 hours daily they are in the air. Two hub turns per 24 hours. Widebodies more like 10-16 hours per day.

There are some markets where a plane sits during the day and only flies one hub turn, but that is definitely the exception and not the rule.
 
TC957
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Re: UPS fleet

Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:16 pm

Has UPS ever considered the 777F ? Surely with the 748 line closing and the MD-11's getting on in years the 777F must be somewhere in UPS's thoughts.
 
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DL757NYC
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Re: UPS fleet

Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:24 am

atcsundevil wrote:
I certainly don't see them keeping 60 year old frames regardless of how low the hours and cycles are. Efficiency matters less on a domestic cargo fleet than it does to passenger carriers given their low utilization, but eventually maintenance costs tip economics in favor of fleet replacement. It's entirely likely that a 60 year old type will exist in the fleet — the A300 is technically 41 years old. Of course, the A300s UPS operates are mostly 2000s builds, and they're technically A310s wearing an A300's clothes, but it's not impossible that they could still be around for another 19 years. They're about to receive some pretty substantial cockpit upgrades anyway. Heck, they had the DC-8 up until about 10 years ago. Given how much more sophisticated the A306 is than the DC-8 (despite still technically being a dinosaur), I fully expect it to hang around for a while.


Thanks for the response.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: UPS fleet

Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:46 am

TC957 wrote:
Has UPS ever considered the 777F ? Surely with the 748 line closing and the MD-11's getting on in years the 777F must be somewhere in UPS's thoughts.

I can guarantee you they've considered it, but obviously they haven't taken the bait yet. FedEx went for the 777F while UPS opted to expand their 74 fleet by adding the -8. I don't know if they're waiting for a last chance offer on some more 748s or for the right 777F offer, but it's hard to say that their fleet is in a bad place right now. They've got enough variants to serve their missions effectively and with relative efficiency, so while I do expect them to invest in some further modernization in the next few years, I don't see it as being imperative that they do so.
 
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747classic
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Re: UPS fleet

Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:50 pm

Estimated technical lifespan of the current UPS fleet :
(Economical lifespan may be shorter, depending new regulations and/or introduction of more economical new aircraft types.)

52x Airbus A300F4-622R, N120UP – N174UP, age 20,7 – 14,4 years
A300-600 Extended Service Goal : 89.000 hrs / 51.000 cycles, see FAST Magazine number 61 : https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/support ... azine.html
The oldest UPS A300-600 (N120UP) last recorded 21.760 hrs / 13.938 cycles.

After 20 years of operation the oldest UPS A300-600 is at 1/3 of technical lifespan (cycles).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
75x Boeing 757-24APF, N401UP – N475UP, age, 33,2 – 21,2 years
757 amended Limit of validity : 150.000 hrs / 75.000 cycles
The oldest UPS 757 (N402UP) last recorded 33.804 hrs / 23.506 cycles

After 33 years of operation the oldest UPS 757 is at 1/3 of technical lifespan(cycles).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
71 x Boeing 767-34AF/-346BCF, N301UP – N373UP, age 25,4 – 0,1 years.
(5 x temporally leased Boeing 767-304BDSF/-316BDSF/-381BCF, N391UP – N395UP, age 29,3 – 21,9 years)
767-300F amended limit of validity : 150,000 hrs/ 60.000 cycles.
The oldest UPS owned 767 ( N302UP) last recorded 62.932 hrs / 21.007 cycles

After 25 years of operation the oldest UPS owned 767-300F is at 40% of technical lifespan (hrs)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
39x MD-11F, N250UP- N296UP, age 29,5 – 20,1 years
MD11 amended limit of validity : 150,000 hrs / 40.000 cycles.
Most are secondhand purchased converted passenger aircraft with a relative high flight hour count, contributed tot the average longer passenger carrying stretches in their “first “live.
The second oldest UPS MD11F (N259UP) last recorded 84.942 hrs / 17,223 cycles

After almost 30 years of operation the oldest UPS MD11F is at 60 % of technical lifespan (hrs)
If operated at shorter stretches the technical lifespan will be at 50%.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
31 x 747-400/8
747-400/8 amended Limit Of Validity : 165.000 hrs / 35.000 cycles.

The UPS 747 fleet can be dived in 3 sub groups :

18 x 747-8F, N605UP – N623UP, age 3,2 – 0,1 years
Purchased new (total 24).

7 x 747-44AF, N570UP - N577UP, age 13,4 – 11, 8 years
Purchased new, the oldest last recorded with 48.238 hrs / 7667 cycles.

4 x 747-4R7F/428F (ex Cargolux), N580UP – N583UP, age 27,5 – 22,9 years
Second hand purchased, the highest flight count (N583UP) 121.334 hrs / 20.381 cycles.

2 x 747-45E(BCF) (ex EVA Airways), N578UP -N579UP, age 27,2 – 26,8 years.
Secondhand purchased and converted, (N578UP ) 108.402 hrs / 17.999 cycles

The four ex Cargolux 744F’s and the two converted ex EVA 744BCF’s are the first UPS aircraft to be phased out, seen the sharply increased maintenance costs of the 747 series passing 125.000 hrs and passing the 20.000 cycle treshold.
Note :
The highest flight hour count for he 744 series in the world is 146.041 hrs (PH-BFI)
The highest flight cycle count for he 744 series in the world is 35.000 cycles (744D)
Operating a twin over the ocean, you're always one engine failure from a total emergency.
 
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UPlog
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Re: UPS fleet

Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:09 pm

One thing to consider is that UPS is very much focused on reliability and pumps much money into upgrades and keeps aircraft in tip-top shape.

TC957 wrote:
Has UPS ever considered the 777F ? Surely with the 748 line closing and the MD-11's getting on in years the 777F must be somewhere in UPS's thoughts.


Yes. I saw a comparison leading up the follow-up order for the additional 748Fs in 2018. Obviously, the 748 won that order.
I fly your boxes
 
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DL_Mech
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Re: UPS fleet

Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:25 am

747classic wrote:
After 33 years of operation the oldest UPS 757 is at 1/3 of technical lifespan(cycles).


So theoretically, the 757 could be at 2/3 cycle lifespan at 66 years. That is if Boeing, PW and RR keep supporting an original operator for that long.
This plane is built to withstand anything... except a bad pilot.
 
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747classic
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Re: UPS fleet

Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:53 am

Additional to the Theoretical technical lifespan of the UPS fleet :

If UPS is still planning for expansion (and not replacement) of the long range 744 fleet with the purchase of 28 747-8F aircraft, it will have to plan first the upcoming replacement of the oldest part of the 744 fleet in a few (2-5 years) time. :
- 2 x ex EVA 744BCF aircraft, non standard aircraft in the UPS fleet , with less payload and no nose cargo door installed. Also increased structural maintenance needed , because during P-F conversion not all structural parts are upgraded to the higher operating weights, so the "tear and wear"of that structure will increase more than normal, according the OEM (Boeing).
- 2 x ex cargolux aircraft (In order of flight hours/cycles) :
N583UP 121,334 hrs / 20.381 cycles at 7/17/2020
N581UP 112,183 hrs / 18.736 cylcles at 8/12/2019

The two remaining 744F aircraft
N580UP 101.727 hrs /17.398 cycles at 3/15/2019
N582UP 99.068 hrs / 17231 cycles at 10/23/2019
could be used as reserve and during the peak season.

Candidates for replacement could be the purchase of the last available 747-8F aircraft from the production line and/or purchase of the two presently for sale early built Saudia Cargo 747-8F aircraft.

Or

A decision for purchasing a new long range UPS freighter, also used as a future replacement for the aging MD11F fleet.
Candidates : 777-300ERSF and/or 777F's or only 767-400F/GEnx for the MD11F fleet.
Operating a twin over the ocean, you're always one engine failure from a total emergency.
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: UPS fleet

Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:46 pm

747classic wrote:
Additional to the Theoretical technical lifespan of the UPS fleet :

If UPS is still planning for expansion (and not replacement) of the long range 744 fleet with the purchase of 28 747-8F aircraft, it will have to plan first the upcoming replacement of the oldest part of the 744 fleet in a few (2-5 years) time. :
- 2 x ex EVA 744BCF aircraft, non standard aircraft in the UPS fleet , with less payload and no nose cargo door installed. Also increased structural maintenance needed , because during P-F conversion not all structural parts are upgraded to the higher operating weights, so the "tear and wear"of that structure will increase more than normal, according the OEM (Boeing).
- 2 x ex cargolux aircraft (In order of flight hours/cycles) :
N583UP 121,334 hrs / 20.381 cycles at 7/17/2020
N581UP 112,183 hrs / 18.736 cylcles at 8/12/2019

The two remaining 744F aircraft
N580UP 101.727 hrs /17.398 cycles at 3/15/2019
N582UP 99.068 hrs / 17231 cycles at 10/23/2019
could be used as reserve and during the peak season.

Candidates for replacement could be the purchase of the last available 747-8F aircraft from the production line and/or purchase of the two presently for sale early built Saudia Cargo 747-8F aircraft.

Or

A decision for purchasing a new long range UPS freighter, also used as a future replacement for the aging MD11F fleet.
Candidates : 777-300ERSF and/or 777F's or only 767-400F/GEnx for the MD11F fleet.

The nose door isn’t a deal breaker. You have to remember everything is containerized or palletized on 5X aircraft. The oversized stuff is extremely rare. When I was doing the planning to bring a 747 to my gateway unloading/loading through the nose door was only planned as a contingency scenario if the aft door was MEL’d. Though I believe tethers were being considered to increase turnaround times.

Hours and cycles will be the demise of the aircraft without a nose door, not the door itself.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
jetblueguy22
Posts: 3501
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2007 12:26 am

Re: UPS fleet

Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:50 pm

UPlog wrote:
One thing to consider is that UPS is very much focused on reliability and pumps much money into upgrades and keeps aircraft in tip-top shape.

TC957 wrote:
Has UPS ever considered the 777F ? Surely with the 748 line closing and the MD-11's getting on in years the 777F must be somewhere in UPS's thoughts.


Yes. I saw a comparison leading up the follow-up order for the additional 748Fs in 2018. Obviously, the 748 won that order.

The maintenance 5X does is really impressive. There were times where at a gateway level maintenance needs hurt us or caused an increase in crew costs, but they wouldn’t let us adjust the schedule as to not affect the rest of the network if that aircraft went AOG.

Pax carriers take on time departures seriously, but 1DA is so time sensitive that they really can’t play around, and they don’t.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
UPS757Pilot
Posts: 165
Joined: Fri Apr 20, 2007 5:22 am

Re: UPS fleet

Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:10 pm

Yes tethers for the 747 fleet have been recently approved by Boeing and the FAA.
jetblueguy22 wrote:
747classic wrote:
Additional to the Theoretical technical lifesThough I believe tethers were being considered to increase turnaround times.

Hours and cycles will be the demise of the aircraft without a nose door, not the door itself.
 
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DL757NYC
Topic Author
Posts: 309
Joined: Wed Nov 02, 2016 6:07 am

Re: UPS fleet

Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:27 am

747classic wrote:
Additional to the Theoretical technical lifespan of the UPS fleet :

If UPS is still planning for expansion (and not replacement) of the long range 744 fleet with the purchase of 28 747-8F aircraft, it will have to plan first the upcoming replacement of the oldest part of the 744 fleet in a few (2-5 years) time. :
- 2 x ex EVA 744BCF aircraft, non standard aircraft in the UPS fleet , with less payload and no nose cargo door installed. Also increased structural maintenance needed , because during P-F conversion not all structural parts are upgraded to the higher operating weights, so the "tear and wear"of that structure will increase more than normal, according the OEM (Boeing).
- 2 x ex cargolux aircraft (In order of flight hours/cycles) :
N583UP 121,334 hrs / 20.381 cycles at 7/17/2020
N581UP 112,183 hrs / 18.736 cylcles at 8/12/2019

The two remaining 744F aircraft
N580UP 101.727 hrs /17.398 cycles at 3/15/2019
N582UP 99.068 hrs / 17231 cycles at 10/23/2019
could be used as reserve and during the peak season.

Candidates for replacement could be the purchase of the last available 747-8F aircraft from the production line and/or purchase of the two presently for sale early built Saudia Cargo 747-8F aircraft.

Or

A decision for purchasing a new long range UPS freighter, also used as a future replacement for the aging MD11F fleet.
Candidates : 777-300ERSF and/or 777F's or only 767-400F/GEnx for the MD11F fleet.



I would not be surprised if the 747-8i become available.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7535
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: UPS fleet

Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:18 am

DL757NYC wrote:
747classic wrote:
Additional to the Theoretical technical lifespan of the UPS fleet :

If UPS is still planning for expansion (and not replacement) of the long range 744 fleet with the purchase of 28 747-8F aircraft, it will have to plan first the upcoming replacement of the oldest part of the 744 fleet in a few (2-5 years) time. :
- 2 x ex EVA 744BCF aircraft, non standard aircraft in the UPS fleet , with less payload and no nose cargo door installed. Also increased structural maintenance needed , because during P-F conversion not all structural parts are upgraded to the higher operating weights, so the "tear and wear"of that structure will increase more than normal, according the OEM (Boeing).
- 2 x ex cargolux aircraft (In order of flight hours/cycles) :
N583UP 121,334 hrs / 20.381 cycles at 7/17/2020
N581UP 112,183 hrs / 18.736 cylcles at 8/12/2019

The two remaining 744F aircraft
N580UP 101.727 hrs /17.398 cycles at 3/15/2019
N582UP 99.068 hrs / 17231 cycles at 10/23/2019
could be used as reserve and during the peak season.

Candidates for replacement could be the purchase of the last available 747-8F aircraft from the production line and/or purchase of the two presently for sale early built Saudia Cargo 747-8F aircraft.

Or

A decision for purchasing a new long range UPS freighter, also used as a future replacement for the aging MD11F fleet.
Candidates : 777-300ERSF and/or 777F's or only 767-400F/GEnx for the MD11F fleet.



I would not be surprised if the 747-8i become available.


I wouldn't think there is enough stock with only 36 748I built, who is getting rid of them anyway? LH aren't likely to park them and I wouldn't think CA or KE will park them either but that is just me.
 
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747classic
Posts: 3333
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Re: UPS fleet

Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:12 am

jetblueguy22 wrote:
The nose door isn’t a deal breaker. You have to remember everything is containerized or palletized on 5X aircraft. The oversized stuff is extremely rare. When I was doing the planning to bring a 747 to my gateway unloading/loading through the nose door was only planned as a contingency scenario if the aft door was MEL’d. Though I believe tethers were being considered to increase turnaround times.

Hours and cycles will be the demise of the aircraft without a nose door, not the door itself.


So, according your answer : UPS is not using the 10 ft high main deck capability on the 747 fleet and only 8 ft high pallets are used ?

Note : it's impossible to load/unload a 10 ft high pallet via the nose door.
Operating a twin over the ocean, you're always one engine failure from a total emergency.
 
Sokes
Posts: 2134
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: UPS fleet

Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:38 am

UPS757Pilot wrote:
These next few years are going to be interesting with regard to the air side and ongoing growth on the 1DA and 2DA operations.

What does 1DA and 2DA mean?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?

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