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saab2000
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Sun Nov 08, 2020 12:52 pm

lightsaber wrote:
barney captain wrote:
saab2000 wrote:

The emphasis is mine but I'm curious why you spell the airline name SouthWest instead of by the correct name, Southwest? I've noticed this for quite a while and I'm curious if there's anything behind it.


Agreed. Odd to be sure.

Fair enough. I did it once and my spell checker now does it automatically. I just assumed it was correcting the copywrite as does on others.

What would you think it means? I will avoid the error, I honestly didn't notice as JetBlue or others add the uppercase when a corporate title is a conjunction, but I see it is as the direction.

Now please answer for me why it would matter? I am an enthusiast who follows many Airlines were many have interesting copywrited variation in titles and since my interest is more in engines, aerodynamics, maintenance and such it is honestly not something I think about.

Lightsaber


I don’t think it matters but I wondered if you had a reason. Your explanation that the spellcheck feature on your computer does this explains it. That’s a great feature usually but can be annoying at times. No further questions Your Honor!
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:20 pm

res nomenclature:

The popular use of crappo capitalization along with promiscuous use of '0', oughts is totally bewildering to this poster. is it neo, NEO and/or max, MAX. Does the 8 have an '00' behind it, and etc. My proposal, so long as it is clear what plane we are referring to comments are out of order. And I still can't and don't intend to keep track of things like 330 800 NEO, fortunately 338 gets the message across.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Sun Nov 08, 2020 8:28 pm

flyiguy wrote:
Rumor mill is there will be a station closing announcement on Tuesday the 10th!


WN has already dropped all international flights out of FLL, and WN also has already dropped service to BZE, CZM, GCM, LIR, NAS, PLS, and SJO from its flight schedules.

The upcoming WN station closure announcement on November 10th might include the closure of WN international stations where WN has already completely dropped service such as BZE, CZM, GCM, LIR, NAS, PLS, and SJO.
 
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Laulau
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:55 am

Ishrion wrote:
727LOVER wrote:
But they're adding, what, 10 new airports?


Gotta chase revenue wherever you can and think long-term possibilities with other airlines having weaker positions.


By competing on a route like SAN-HNL against HA and AK????? Doesn't make any sense......
 
Ishrion
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:45 am

Laulau wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
727LOVER wrote:
But they're adding, what, 10 new airports?


Gotta chase revenue wherever you can and think long-term possibilities with other airlines having weaker positions.


By competing on a route like SAN-HNL against HA and AK????? Doesn't make any sense......


SAN-HNL falls under "gotta chase revenue wherever you can".

Americans are rushing to Hawaii for vacation thanks to the COVID pre-tests that can allow you to bypass quarantine.

Airlines are definitely seeing the demand. United added ORD-KOA and EWR-OGG.

American upgauged DFW-HNL to the 777-300ER. LAX-HNL upgauges to the 787-9 and PHX-HNL/OGG to the 772 in December,
 
Silver1SWA
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:58 am

Ishrion wrote:
Laulau wrote:
Ishrion wrote:

Gotta chase revenue wherever you can and think long-term possibilities with other airlines having weaker positions.


By competing on a route like SAN-HNL against HA and AK????? Doesn't make any sense......


SAN-HNL falls under "gotta chase revenue wherever you can".


SAN-HNL does not fall under new post-COVID additions though. It was already in the plans and on sale for launch in April. But yeah, clearly they see enough opportunity to finally get it going after a few delays.
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Wed Nov 11, 2020 12:13 am

Boiler905 wrote:
flyiguy wrote:
Rumor mill is there will be a station closing announcement on Tuesday the 10th!

FLY


My first guess is either RIC, ICT, or DSM will be closed.


WN didn't announce any station closings today, and there are still WN flights out of RIC, ICT, and DSM in WN's flight schedules through April 11th (the current end of WN's flight schedule).
 
737MAX7
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Wed Nov 11, 2020 12:29 am

flyiguy wrote:
Rumor mill is there will be a station closing announcement on Tuesday the 10th!

FLY

I’m hearing possibly GSP, we’ll see though.
 
kiowa
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:33 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Laulau wrote:
Ishrion wrote:

Gotta chase revenue wherever you can and think long-term possibilities with other airlines having weaker positions.


By competing on a route like SAN-HNL against HA and AK????? Doesn't make any sense......


SAN-HNL falls under "gotta chase revenue wherever you can".

Americans are rushing to Hawaii for vacation thanks to the COVID pre-tests that can allow you to bypass quarantine.

Airlines are definitely seeing the demand. United added ORD-KOA and EWR-OGG.

American upgauged DFW-HNL to the 777-300ER. LAX-HNL upgauges to the 787-9 and PHX-HNL/OGG to the 772 in December,


I am not hearing of people “rushing to Hawaii”. Perhaps the airlines are just being hopeful.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:36 pm

I flew Southwest on Tuesday on a short flight DAl-HOU and back. Flight down had about 40 passengers and Flight back at about 60.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:40 pm

kiowa wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Laulau wrote:

By competing on a route like SAN-HNL against HA and AK????? Doesn't make any sense......


SAN-HNL falls under "gotta chase revenue wherever you can".

Americans are rushing to Hawaii for vacation thanks to the COVID pre-tests that can allow you to bypass quarantine.

Airlines are definitely seeing the demand. United added ORD-KOA and EWR-OGG.

American upgauged DFW-HNL to the 777-300ER. LAX-HNL upgauges to the 787-9 and PHX-HNL/OGG to the 772 in December,


I am not hearing of people “rushing to Hawaii”. Perhaps the airlines are just being hopeful.

I doubt a rush, but at this point if flying a route losses less money than a parked plane, fly it.

Lightsaber
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MIflyer12
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Thu Nov 12, 2020 2:07 pm

Laulau wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
727LOVER wrote:
But they're adding, what, 10 new airports?


Gotta chase revenue wherever you can and think long-term possibilities with other airlines having weaker positions.


By competing on a route like SAN-HNL against HA and AK????? Doesn't make any sense......


Do you somehow think that HA and AS are some irresistible force? Not out of Southern California. There will be plenty of regular WN flyers to eat that up. Their marketing could be as lazy as just putting up a few billboards on the major driving routes to SAN.
 
kiowa
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Sun Nov 15, 2020 5:09 am

lightsaber wrote:
kiowa wrote:
Ishrion wrote:

SAN-HNL falls under "gotta chase revenue wherever you can".

Americans are rushing to Hawaii for vacation thanks to the COVID pre-tests that can allow you to bypass quarantine.

Airlines are definitely seeing the demand. United added ORD-KOA and EWR-OGG.

American upgauged DFW-HNL to the 777-300ER. LAX-HNL upgauges to the 787-9 and PHX-HNL/OGG to the 772 in December,


I am not hearing of people “rushing to Hawaii”. Perhaps the airlines are just being hopeful.

I doubt a rush, but at this point if flying a route losses less money than a parked plane, fly it.

Lightsaber


I doubt that they lose less money on a long thin route like Hawaii. The flying public is still not flying. The airlines that survive may be the ones that cut back the fastest, not the ones who think they can bleed longer.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:01 am

kiowa wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
kiowa wrote:

I am not hearing of people “rushing to Hawaii”. Perhaps the airlines are just being hopeful.

I doubt a rush, but at this point if flying a route losses less money than a parked plane, fly it.

Lightsaber


I doubt that they lose less money on a long thin route like Hawaii. The flying public is still not flying. The airlines that survive may be the ones that cut back the fastest, not the ones who think they can bleed longer.


For an airline like Allegiant 100% their plane costs are so low for their planes. Allegiant will ride thru this pandemic and cancel flighs with lower fixed costs.

For an airline like southwest or American with much younger fleets and so many leased their cash burn rate parking all the planes would be insane. Their fixed costs on the planes are just so high. Airlines would happily sell planes and cancel alot of flights, problem is the market is rock bottom since so little people can afford not freight planes. They must find that medium that burns the least, they must see or hope for tourist demand to hawaii? Maybe you are right they can cancel and park more, but i think they do need to try anything that can bring in cash. Their fixed costs are just too high for cash flow
 
freakyrat
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Sun Nov 15, 2020 1:13 pm

freakyrat wrote:
I flew Southwest on Tuesday on a short flight DAL-HOU and back. Flight down had about 40 passengers and Flight back at about 60.


Corrected:
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Sun Nov 15, 2020 1:28 pm

lightsaber wrote:
kiowa wrote:
Ishrion wrote:

SAN-HNL falls under "gotta chase revenue wherever you can".

Americans are rushing to Hawaii for vacation thanks to the COVID pre-tests that can allow you to bypass quarantine.

Airlines are definitely seeing the demand. United added ORD-KOA and EWR-OGG.

American upgauged DFW-HNL to the 777-300ER. LAX-HNL upgauges to the 787-9 and PHX-HNL/OGG to the 772 in December,


I am not hearing of people “rushing to Hawaii”. Perhaps the airlines are just being hopeful.

I doubt a rush, but at this point if flying a route losses less money than a parked plane, fly it.

Lightsaber


Look at the destinations in Hawaii, all way up except HNL. Airlines reported a surge in Hawaii bookings once the restrictions were lifted.
Image
Image
https://www.tripit.com/web/vacation-hom ... olidaydata
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
mcg
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Sun Nov 15, 2020 5:39 pm

klm617 wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
OK, I'm done debating about the lower cost and that it's the airlines problem. Customers decide what they want to pay for, and have proven over and over again they'll go for the cheapest. That's an undeniable and undebatable fact.
And for companies to continue to cater to those customers (and avoid going out of business), they have to lower their price, to match their competitors'. Hence the race to the bottom.


That's simply not true. People in DSM and OMA are not offered $39 fares to Florida yet if they were those planes would be filled. The only people who benefit from this insanity is the top 10 markets in the USA. People in medium to small markets demand and want those fares to but yet they are far and few between. They only do this in the top ten or so markets because they are chasing market share while the rest of their networks when people have no options fund this.


Don't know about $39 fares to Florida but I know someone who booked MSO - ZRH for $279.
 
mcg
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Sun Nov 15, 2020 5:45 pm

KarlB737 wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
it looks like they just have way too many employees for current demand.


I've read nothing here of "way too many" airplanes. Maybe Southwest should have a smaller fleet. Maybe instead of parking planes how about selling some instead of always JUST cutting staff.


Who are they going to sell the airplanes to?
 
AmericanAir88
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Sun Nov 15, 2020 9:09 pm

I really think WN should look into expanding at LGA. I know LGA is slot restricted and they have distance regulations, but a weekend flight to LAS would be a game changer. The first LGA-LAS route with two free checked bags in a sparkling new terminal would cause a big crowd.

It is a good time to go after LGA with low fares. A lot of airlines are cutting there including the giants of AA/DL.

WN is arguably the smallest domestic airline (besides Sun Country and Allegiant) in the NYC area. They should really try out LGA.
 
737max8
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Sun Nov 15, 2020 10:57 pm

AmericanAir88 wrote:
I really think WN should look into expanding at LGA. I know LGA is slot restricted and they have distance regulations, but a weekend flight to LAS would be a game changer. The first LGA-LAS route with two free checked bags in a sparkling new terminal would cause a big crowd.

It is a good time to go after LGA with low fares. A lot of airlines are cutting there including the giants of AA/DL.

WN is arguably the smallest domestic airline (besides Sun Country and Allegiant) in the NYC area. They should really try out LGA.


Just a guess that NY is currently being "ignored" due to the state's pretty crazy restrictions for travelers.

No surprise to read in the SRQ thread that the most popular destinations right now are in places like Florida and Arizona (and already Hawaii since "reopening").
The thoughts and opinions expressed in my comments do not represent that of any airline or affiliate.
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EA CO AS
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:06 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
res nomenclature:

The popular use of crappo capitalization along with promiscuous use of '0', oughts is totally bewildering to this poster. is it neo, NEO and/or max, MAX. Does the 8 have an '00' behind it, and etc. My proposal, so long as it is clear what plane we are referring to comments are out of order. And I still can't and don't intend to keep track of things like 330 800 NEO, fortunately 338 gets the message across.


Are you referring to how the aircraft type is listed in res GDSs, such as 7M8, 7M9, etc?
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
Sooner787
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Mon Nov 16, 2020 2:48 am

freakyrat wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
I flew Southwest on Tuesday on a short flight DAL-HOU and back. Flight down had about 40 passengers and Flight back at about 60.


Corrected:


Flew WN 4-7 Nov from DAL-DEN-SEA roundtrip.

The DAL- DEN flts had approx 80 pax each way but the DEN - SEA legs had max loads
and quite a few middle seats were occupied with families.

Terminal C at DEN also seemed quite busy. Felt like normal except for all the masks :)
 
freakyrat
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Mon Nov 16, 2020 4:31 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
I flew Southwest on Tuesday on a short flight DAL-HOU and back. Flight down had about 40 passengers and Flight back at about 60.


Corrected:


Flew WN 4-7 Nov from DAL-DEN-SEA roundtrip.

The DAL- DEN flts had approx 80 pax each way but the DEN - SEA legs had max loads
and quite a few middle seats were occupied with families.

Terminal C at DEN also seemed quite busy. Felt like normal except for all the masks :)


My Hobby to Dallas Flight arrived at 7:30 PM and Dallas Love looked deserted. However they had a bank of scheduled arrivals after 9:00 PM.
 
VS11
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:04 pm

As the topic of Southwest expansion came up earlier, the Wall Street Journal has a piece on it.

“Predatory and Opportunistic”: Southwest Airlines Seizes the Moment as Rivals Struggle.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/southwest- ... _lead_pos5
 
Miamiairport
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:33 pm

VS11 wrote:
As the topic of Southwest expansion came up earlier, the Wall Street Journal has a piece on it.

“Predatory and Opportunistic”: Southwest Airlines Seizes the Moment as Rivals Struggle.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/southwest- ... _lead_pos5


Couldn't get beyond the paywall but WN without a doubt is trying to utilize this situation to it's advantage even if the same situation may one day force WN into Chapter 11. I wouldn't call it predatory but definitely opportunistic. And remember not every station has been a resounding success, example IAD, EWR, PHL.

At least for now WN poses little threat to AA at either MIA or ORD. MIA is interesting and could be a big payday for WN. 2 free bags has a lot of appeal to flyers to the Caribbean, Central America and North SA. And this type of flyer isn't obsessing over whether an upgrade will clear or what kind of free food is being given out by an airline lounge.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Wed Nov 18, 2020 10:35 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
At least for now WN poses little threat to AA at either MIA or ORD. MIA is interesting and could be a big payday for WN. 2 free bags has a lot of appeal to flyers to the Caribbean, Central America and North SA. And this type of flyer isn't obsessing over whether an upgrade will clear or what kind of free food is being given out by an airline lounge.


I probably would expect WN to add some more domestic nonstop routes out of MIA such as MIA-ATL/DAL/DEN/BNA/MSY/STL prior to adding any nonstop international flights out of MIA. WN would also have significantly more connecting feed with domestic adds such as MIA-ATL/DAL/DEN/BNA/STL than it would with international adds out of MIA.
 
Boof02671
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Wed Nov 18, 2020 10:52 pm

Southwest sends out more WARN notices


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/18/more-th ... 7QAs_HBCnI
 
kiowa
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:46 pm

rbavfan wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
As crazy as it sounds - it’s essentially November, and many people STILL aren’t grasping how dire the situation looks for the industry. One more bailout isn’t going to solve it - it’s going to take years and many more rounds of aid if you want every carrier to survive in its current state/size.

Again - I’ve stressed this before but I’ll say it again, the vaccine is not the solution for the industry. Even once it’s widely rolled out (probably mid 2021 if not late 2021), it’s going to take months for any business demand to start rolling back in. And now we’ve got public health people saying we’re going to have to wear masks and “no normalcy” until a second vaccine, possibly 3-5 years down the road, since it looks like immunity is not long lasting.

Put simply - unless life does just return to normal after an initial vaccine (starting to doubt it), many in the industry won’t survive... WN may be the last to go, but they are not immune either



Delta is playing it smart cutting back fleet and noting avter thing improve they will remain a smaller carrier than before. There were already too many flights & too much capacity, except for thanksgiving & Christmas holidays. But I still think after a few years thing will stabilize and travel will eventually be back to last years levels. It's just going to be a while. WN should pull through it, American may not. While they have. a newer fleet they are heavily in debt due to that new fleet. Bad timing.


The TSA numbers just had another day over 1 million but nowhere near normal levels. I believe it will be a long time for the industry to recover, if it ever does. Cutting back or buying aircraft and expanding are based on the guesses of the individual airlines and only time will tell what the correct guesses are.
 
Scarebus34
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:18 pm

kiowa wrote:
rbavfan wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
As crazy as it sounds - it’s essentially November, and many people STILL aren’t grasping how dire the situation looks for the industry. One more bailout isn’t going to solve it - it’s going to take years and many more rounds of aid if you want every carrier to survive in its current state/size.

Again - I’ve stressed this before but I’ll say it again, the vaccine is not the solution for the industry. Even once it’s widely rolled out (probably mid 2021 if not late 2021), it’s going to take months for any business demand to start rolling back in. And now we’ve got public health people saying we’re going to have to wear masks and “no normalcy” until a second vaccine, possibly 3-5 years down the road, since it looks like immunity is not long lasting.

Put simply - unless life does just return to normal after an initial vaccine (starting to doubt it), many in the industry won’t survive... WN may be the last to go, but they are not immune either



Delta is playing it smart cutting back fleet and noting avter thing improve they will remain a smaller carrier than before. There were already too many flights & too much capacity, except for thanksgiving & Christmas holidays. But I still think after a few years thing will stabilize and travel will eventually be back to last years levels. It's just going to be a while. WN should pull through it, American may not. While they have. a newer fleet they are heavily in debt due to that new fleet. Bad timing.


The TSA numbers just had another day over 1 million but nowhere near normal levels. I believe it will be a long time for the industry to recover, if it ever does. Cutting back or buying aircraft and expanding are based on the guesses of the individual airlines and only time will tell what the correct guesses are.

Once the vaccine rolls out, airlines will start to grow again. I would guess around 75% 2019 level by the end of 2021... the fact that some days are pushing 1M now (over 1M on 11/20) without a vaccine and cases raging, leaves one to believe once there is a vaccine those who are 'scared' to fly now will return to the skies. Everyone is going to want to get out and get away and make up for their missed vacations.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 554
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:36 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
kiowa wrote:
rbavfan wrote:


Delta is playing it smart cutting back fleet and noting avter thing improve they will remain a smaller carrier than before. There were already too many flights & too much capacity, except for thanksgiving & Christmas holidays. But I still think after a few years thing will stabilize and travel will eventually be back to last years levels. It's just going to be a while. WN should pull through it, American may not. While they have. a newer fleet they are heavily in debt due to that new fleet. Bad timing.


The TSA numbers just had another day over 1 million but nowhere near normal levels. I believe it will be a long time for the industry to recover, if it ever does. Cutting back or buying aircraft and expanding are based on the guesses of the individual airlines and only time will tell what the correct guesses are.

Once the vaccine rolls out, airlines will start to grow again. I would guess around 75% 2019 level by the end of 2021... the fact that some days are pushing 1M now (over 1M on 11/20) without a vaccine and cases raging, leaves one to believe once there is a vaccine those who are 'scared' to fly now will return to the skies. Everyone is going to want to get out and get away and make up for their missed vacations.


The disconnect here is that leisure traffic has returned significantly... it’s not to 100% by any means, but it’s at a far greater percentage than business traffic. Regardless of how long the pandemic rages - the leisure traffic will be there. There is a reason G4 is essentially breaking even at the moment.

It’s a much bigger problem for the big guys, because their top line revenue was so heavily business centric (and intl. traffic related). You aren’t making money on the $100 o/w fares booked 3 months out, you’re making money on the $400+ fares booked within a week.

It’s going to be 2022 before business travel really begins to return to normal levels, and that’s assuming zoom hasn’t significantly changed the market. The airlines don’t make their money on Bob taking his family of 4 on vacation ... they make most of it on Jim’s last minute business trip to see a client. That’s the big problem the longer this goes on
 
CobaltScar
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:56 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
The airlines don’t make their money on Bob taking his family of 4 on vacation ... they make most of it on Jim’s last minute business trip to see a client. That’s the big problem the longer this goes on


And if Zoom removes the business travel out of the equation, then Bob will have to pay more for their airfare which will mean all the airlines will have to shrink and many collapse into each other.

All these airline seats can't survive fighting each other over 29 dollar fares.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Mon Nov 23, 2020 10:50 am

CobaltScar wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
The airlines don’t make their money on Bob taking his family of 4 on vacation ... they make most of it on Jim’s last minute business trip to see a client. That’s the big problem the longer this goes on


And if Zoom removes the business travel out of the equation, then Bob will have to pay more for their airfare which will mean all the airlines will have to shrink and many collapse into each other.

All these airline seats can't survive fighting each other over 29 dollar fares.

Agreed. I see a partial return to business travel... eventually. But online meetings are now so normal, it means 'Jim' can skip half the last minute flights. Or 'Jim' flies solo with the team Zooming in. So the baseline will be lower.

I just flew a Thanksgiving TCON with 72 empty seats with all middle seats blocked too. I changed my flight last minute, but it was still reasonable.

This is not sustainable.

Lightsaber
5 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
Miamiairport
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:00 pm

Even if a vaccine allows for more leisure travel and the return of business travel it's by no means over for the airlines. First, the vaccine could take over a year to roll out, don't know how many people will opt out (I certainly am) and don't know what side effects will come about when considering how fast this was rushed to market. Second, the economy still sucks and millions are still out of work, will become unemployed or worry they might become unemployed. Scared people don't spend. Third, at what level will business travel come back, particularly for the airlines lucrative premium cabin long haul. Fourth, the impact of having less fees, particularly change fees. Change fees are nearly pure profit. How much did it cost for example to process a change fee versus the $200 the airline charged? Finally, even with a vaccine something tells me we are still going to be told to wear a mask and social distance.
 
kiowa
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Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Tue Nov 24, 2020 7:06 pm

lightsaber wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
The airlines don’t make their money on Bob taking his family of 4 on vacation ... they make most of it on Jim’s last minute business trip to see a client. That’s the big problem the longer this goes on


And if Zoom removes the business travel out of the equation, then Bob will have to pay more for their airfare which will mean all the airlines will have to shrink and many collapse into each other.

All these airline seats can't survive fighting each other over 29 dollar fares.

Agreed. I see a partial return to business travel... eventually. But online meetings are now so normal, it means 'Jim' can skip half the last minute flights. Or 'Jim' flies solo with the team Zooming in. So the baseline will be lower.

I just flew a Thanksgiving TCON with 72 empty seats with all middle seats blocked too. I changed my flight last minute, but it was still reasonable.

This is not sustainable.

Lightsaber


It’s actually the airlines that are unsustainable.
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 806
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Wed Nov 25, 2020 12:44 am

kiowa wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:

And if Zoom removes the business travel out of the equation, then Bob will have to pay more for their airfare which will mean all the airlines will have to shrink and many collapse into each other.

All these airline seats can't survive fighting each other over 29 dollar fares.

Agreed. I see a partial return to business travel... eventually. But online meetings are now so normal, it means 'Jim' can skip half the last minute flights. Or 'Jim' flies solo with the team Zooming in. So the baseline will be lower.

I just flew a Thanksgiving TCON with 72 empty seats with all middle seats blocked too. I changed my flight last minute, but it was still reasonable.

This is not sustainable.

Lightsaber


It’s actually the airlines that are unsustainable.


Perhaps, but we still need air travel.

So as I said before, bring back regulation. Problem solved.
 
kiowa
Posts: 832
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2011 12:37 am

Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:18 am

CobaltScar wrote:
kiowa wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Agreed. I see a partial return to business travel... eventually. But online meetings are now so normal, it means 'Jim' can skip half the last minute flights. Or 'Jim' flies solo with the team Zooming in. So the baseline will be lower.

I just flew a Thanksgiving TCON with 72 empty seats with all middle seats blocked too. I changed my flight last minute, but it was still reasonable.

This is not sustainable.

Lightsaber


It’s actually the airlines that are unsustainable.


Perhaps, but we still need air travel.

So as I said before, bring back regulation. Problem solved.


Regulation would be done by the US government. I do not believe they are capable of running anything anymore.
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 806
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Thu Nov 26, 2020 3:02 pm

kiowa wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
kiowa wrote:

It’s actually the airlines that are unsustainable.


Perhaps, but we still need air travel.

So as I said before, bring back regulation. Problem solved.


Regulation would be done by the US government. I do not believe they are capable of running anything anymore.


It would ensure adequate access to essential travel to citizens, even those in unprofitable small rural areas. The government provides postal service, at a loss, to such areas so why not essential air travel too?

It would also remove the continuous boom and bust cycle of airtravel, which would help all the employees too.
 
ScottB
Posts: 7291
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:56 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
kiowa wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:

Perhaps, but we still need air travel.

So as I said before, bring back regulation. Problem solved.


Regulation would be done by the US government. I do not believe they are capable of running anything anymore.


It would ensure adequate access to essential travel to citizens, even those in unprofitable small rural areas. The government provides postal service, at a loss, to such areas so why not essential air travel too?

It would also remove the continuous boom and bust cycle of airtravel, which would help all the employees too.


Regulation does nothing to solve these problems unless it is accompanied by large subsidies.

Many smaller airports have lost service because there is little demand for expensive flights with dubious additional convenience vs. driving two or three hours to the nearest large airport. Do you fly out of CSG or HVN or IPT or IDA or CLL or ALW or SPI and connect at a big hub, or do you just drive to the big hub and go non-stop? Do you want to risk missing the last connecting flight of the night on your way back home?

Regulation doesn't solve the boom-bust cycle. The problem during a bust, just as now, is too few people willing to pay enough for the airlines to make a profit. How do you expect higher regulated fares to fix that absent massive capacity cuts and job losses at the airlines? At the sunset of regulation in 1979, Pan Am flew just under 23 billion revenue passenger-miles. Southwest was nearly six times that size last year. Allegiant was around 60% as large. Eastern was historically the largest airline in the Western world (only SU was larger) and yet in 1981 they were about one-fifth WN's size by RPMs last year.

Regulation doesn't solve a situation where many are afraid to fly, businesses won't send employees on business trips, and certain state governments are hostile to air travel. You think having the National Guard meet airline flights to enforce the latest quarantine edict makes people want to travel?
 
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par13del
Posts: 10638
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Thu Nov 26, 2020 5:40 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
The airlines don’t make their money on Bob taking his family of 4 on vacation ... they make most of it on Jim’s last minute business trip to see a client. That’s the big problem the longer this goes on


And if Zoom removes the business travel out of the equation, then Bob will have to pay more for their airfare which will mean all the airlines will have to shrink and many collapse into each other.

All these airline seats can't survive fighting each other over 29 dollar fares.

Except in relation to WN, their walk up fares are capped whereas the other legacies it is a much larger section of their business.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 828
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Thu Nov 26, 2020 9:06 pm

Re-regulation of the industry is not the answer. The least of all is that in the 60s government wasn’t influenced by huge special interest. The only thing that would happen today is that the airlines would be protected by government. It’s a pipe dream that somehow with regulation the industry would return to the heyday of the 60s,
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 21707
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Fri Nov 27, 2020 2:15 am

CobaltScar wrote:
kiowa wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:

Perhaps, but we still need air
So as I said before, bring back regulation. Problem solved.


Regulation would be done by the US government. I do not believe they are capable of running anything anymore.


It would ensure adequate access to essential travel to citizens, even those in unprofitable small rural areas. The government provides postal service, at a loss, to such areas so why not essential air travel too?

It would also remove the continuous boom and bust cycle of airtravel, which would help all the employees too.

You cannot regulate away the boom bust cycle.

The only way to serve unprofitable markets us tax profitable, instead of letting the market balance out. Air Taxis can serve most communities.

The entire LCC market where ancillary sales (hotels, rental cars) would break.

WN needs to right size to the labor costs. A painful but needed process.

Lightsaber
5 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
freakyrat
Posts: 2213
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:04 pm

Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Fri Nov 27, 2020 2:32 am

Personally when Covid hit I had about 5 trips planned and paid for on WN that I had to cancel. I converted 4 of them to Rapid Rewards points which WN is allowing till Dec 15th. I'm probably not the only one. WN has a loyal following and WN knows that people will eventually take these flights to rescheduled events. This gives WN needed cash and keeps their customer base happy.

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