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kaitak
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Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:52 pm

Good afternoon folks and welcome to our November 2020 thread. The good news is that there's only two months left of the fun ride that has been 2020. We can only hope that 2021 will see some significant improvements. I hesitate to say "it can't get any worse", because practically every prediction for 2020 has landed face down in the mud.

Rather than depressing myself by reading through the bad news that we've seen in the last month, here are a few snippets:
- Traffic in September has shown a marked decrease over the previous month, which may be as a result of kids going back to school, but numbers are noticeably down
- The traffic light system is expected to be launched within the next week (November 8), I believe, but at this stage, almost every country (with the possible exceptions of Norway and Estonia) are expected to be red. Most countries in Europe are looking at lengthy lockdowns for November, possibly even into December, so it's unlikely that we'll see any change in the warnings.
- Currently Ireland's numbers appear to have passed a peak and have been in three digits for the past week, which can only be positive, but we have a long way to go. NPHET is warning against people travelling home for Christmas, though it remains to be seen if people will follow this.
- There are several tests in the pipeline and although these are being promoted by airlines and airports, public health authorities seem to be rather dubious about them. There doesn't seem to be much appetite for them, but if it's a choice between testing and tens of thousands of people flying in untested (or even flying via NI) then they may be forced to reconsider.
- FR has closed routes to ORK, SNN and NOC; EI has closed its SNN services, so outside Dublin, the picture looks pretty grim.

We can only keep our fingers crossed for light at the end of the tunnel. I don't expect to see much good news; we have already seen LH and LX cancel flights until December and we may see more, so November isn't likely to lift our spirits much. Let's hope we do see at least some grains of good news that can give us hope.

For anyone with a box of tissues handy, here's the link to 10/20:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1452381&start=300
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:58 pm

Sadly November seems to be heading in a direction of more of the same. Talk from airlines / airports about tests are just that at the moment. It will be a miracle if we see any meaningful testing operation at DUB the government seems to prefer to let the current situation carry on with maybe some minor tweaks.
 
Vicenza
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Re: Irish 10/20: Bad news on the doorstep

Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:35 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
Vicenza wrote:
AmricanShamrok wrote:
EI schedules are literally changing week by week and at short notice too. I understand the predicament they're in but the few of us who want/need to travel still need some bit of advance notice and a reliable schedule to book off work and are tied down to certain days.


Except to be perfectly honest/frank no-one definitively needs to fly anywhere. Merely just wanting to is another thing again. For example, if you absolutely needed to for business then I would consider little difficulty should be encountered in booking days off work for it. So are you talking about needing to, or merely wanting to?


I have a completely different opinion to you on this one, though I do hear what you're saying. I know categorically that some people do need to travel outside of work.

I am heading off to Australia at the end of November, all going to plan. When I mentioned something on the Australian thread here about it, I received several snippy comments essentially calling me out for being a bad person for travelling during a pandemic. Someone else, in my defence, quite rightly pointed out that those passing judgement don't know the reasons behind why certain people need to travel and that those people should not be vilified for doing so.

There's a reason I need to go to Australia and that's all there is to it, as I am sure there are reasons why others need to travel right now. I am completely aware that people are also travelling for leisure, but until it becomes illegal to do so, then people should not be judged on their choices and requirements.


I'm actually not necessarily disagreeing with you at all in fact. My comment was primarily based on more of a type of bemusement which I find.....many posts on here talk incessantly about needing to fly but yet, in many ways, this is purely agenda driven. I am not referring to yourself at all, but in general, and solely mean flying, not just 'travel' in itself. In essence however, while they certainly exist, only a very few instances would necessitate the absolute need to fly (death, terminal illness etc). I am fully aware that such travel is, in itself, subjective and I most certainly am not/will not judge any journey....as you mention, I and everyone else, do not know the reason for such, nor is it actually anyone's business. If, for example, you feel you need to go to Australia that's perfectly fine and you, or anyone else, most certainly will never hear any 'snippy'comments from me. My post was primarily just to draw the fact that there is a very great difference between needing and wanting and, very unfortunately, many on here disguise the wanting for needing. Most certainly enjoy your trip to Australia, and stay safe.
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:48 pm

November marks 10 years since Terminal 2 opened .


In November 2010, Dublin Airport's Terminal 2 and its connected boarding gate pier were opened. The award-winning new terminal will allow the airport to handle more than 30 million passengers per year. It will ensure that Dublin Airport continues to be what Desmond FitzGerald had originally envisaged - a modern European airport that is Ireland's premier aviation gateway.


Image


Image



www.dublinairport.com/corporate/about-us/our-history
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:11 pm

Vicenza wrote:
My post was primarily just to draw the fact that there is a very great difference between needing and wanting and, very unfortunately, many on here disguise the wanting for needing. Most certainly enjoy your trip to Australia, and stay safe.


Thanks for the comprehensive reply, it was good to read your thoughts on this. It is true, the difference between needing and wanting does get blurred a lot by people - more regularly than you usually notice.

Cross fingers I make it to Australia, really. You stay safe too!

OA260 wrote:
In November 2010, Dublin Airport's Terminal 2 and its connected boarding gate pier were opened. The award-winning new terminal will allow the airport to handle more than 30 million passengers per year. It will ensure that Dublin Airport continues to be what Desmond FitzGerald had originally envisaged - a modern European airport that is Ireland's premier aviation gateway.


What sticks in my mind the most is how much flak Michael O'Leary directed at Dublin Airport for this terminal. The "expensive white elephant that no-one will use" certainly turned out to be a valuable piece of infrastructure, as many people knew it would. I always found that campaign to be particularly short sighted and never really understood the point of it.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
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AmricanShamrok
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:27 pm

OA260 wrote:
November marks 10 years since Terminal 2 opened .


In November 2010, Dublin Airport's Terminal 2 and its connected boarding gate pier were opened. The award-winning new terminal will allow the airport to handle more than 30 million passengers per year. It will ensure that Dublin Airport continues to be what Desmond FitzGerald had originally envisaged - a modern European airport that is Ireland's premier aviation gateway.


Image


Image



http://www.dublinairport.com/corporate/ ... ur-history

Hard to believe it's 10 years ago now. I remember participating in the pre-opening passenger trial like it was yesterday.
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:44 pm

AmricanShamrok wrote:
OA260 wrote:
November marks 10 years since Terminal 2 opened .


In November 2010, Dublin Airport's Terminal 2 and its connected boarding gate pier were opened. The award-winning new terminal will allow the airport to handle more than 30 million passengers per year. It will ensure that Dublin Airport continues to be what Desmond FitzGerald had originally envisaged - a modern European airport that is Ireland's premier aviation gateway.


Image


Image



http://www.dublinairport.com/corporate/ ... ur-history

Hard to believe it's 10 years ago now. I remember participating in the pre-opening passenger trial like it was yesterday.


I know was there also I remember your TR ! You got on an A330 and I got sent to the baggage reclaim.

Sadly it seems the pics expired .

www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=970241
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:15 am

Aer Lingus in British government talks on direct UK-US flights

The airline has cut flights for a month from Dublin to eight European cities

Aer Lingus has entered high-level discussions with senior British government officials about operating direct services from the UK to the US, documents reveal.

Mark Bosly thanked the airline "for our very interesting meeting" about what he refers to as "Aer Lingus UK".

The revelation comes as the airline this weekend cancelled all of its services from Dublin into eight European cities for at least a month beginning on November 16.

https://amp.independent.ie/business/wor ... 88149.html
 
Eagleboy
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:17 am

ClassicLover wrote:
...........

What sticks in my mind the most is how much flak Michael O'Leary directed at Dublin Airport for this terminal. The "expensive white elephant that no-one will use" certainly turned out to be a valuable piece of infrastructure, as many people knew it would. I always found that campaign to be particularly short sighted and never really understood the point of it.

So many arguments I had with with taxi drivers.......
 
Fliplot
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:32 am

Is EI assuming a positive outcome to the BREXIT trade agreement or can we expect EI UK Ltd? Does the CTA cover a UK based operation? Would this not cannibalize EI's DUB hub?
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:37 am

Fliplot wrote:
Is EI assuming a positive outcome to the BREXIT trade agreement or can we expect EI UK Ltd? Does the CTA cover a UK based operation? Would this not cannibalize EI's DUB hub?


Two possibilities.

1. EI are trying to find a use for their aircraft, to get some cash rolling in while Ireland is closed. Not that the UK is much different now.

2. They have found, through their connecting flight operation, that certain markets can support direct services, which are currently not served by British airlines. They can see a business opportunity and want to exploit it.

My bet is on number two. I'll be interested to see what happens. No reason why they shouldn't start flying from the UK really, as they have the brand recognition there not to mention people already fly them across the Atlantic over Dublin.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:11 pm

Fliplot wrote:
Is EI assuming a positive outcome to the BREXIT trade agreement or can we expect EI UK Ltd? Does the CTA cover a UK based operation? Would this not cannibalize EI's DUB hub?


You could well see Aer Lingus UK as a separate company. With or without a deal. If Aer Lingus / IAG see an opportunity then why not take it. With the DUBHUB greatly diminished and no sign of any change to that the future might be point to point with testing and UK - USA corridors as touted. Maybe Ireland will be left behind . As we know Aer Lingus US routes rely heavily on transfer traffic and Irish based demand did not make various routes viable even in good times. It was transfers from UK / EU that kept them viable. With predictions of a slow recovery over 2-3 years then if Aer Lingus needs to drop a lot of its Irish operations and focus on bigger markets in the UK then needs must.
 
Fliplot
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:25 pm

Interesting comments! Quite a turn around too! I dont quite see the same doom for the future. The EI brand is now bland enough to work in other markets.i suppose there are enough eurooean airlines to service the irish market!
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:04 pm

Fliplot wrote:
Interesting comments! Quite a turn around too! I dont quite see the same doom for the future. The EI brand is now bland enough to work in other markets.i suppose there are enough eurooean airlines to service the irish market!


I think you're wrong on the "The EI brand is now bland enough to work in other markets".

In actual fact, I think you'll find that Europeans no longer cleave to their national carrier under all circumstances. People now take whoever offers the best fare, as is evident by the "success" of Norwegian in their Irish operation, UK operation and so on. The same with cross border airlines like Wizz and Ryanair. I think that the legacy airlines have been slow to exploit the fact they can actually operate from anywhere in Europe and people will fly them if the price is right.

The fact remains, it doesn't matter where the airline is from, therefore Aer Lingus would have as much chance as anyone. Only they have an advantage in the long history in the UK market.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
opticalilyushin
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:27 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
Fliplot wrote:
Is EI assuming a positive outcome to the BREXIT trade agreement or can we expect EI UK Ltd? Does the CTA cover a UK based operation? Would this not cannibalize EI's DUB hub?


Two possibilities.

1. EI are trying to find a use for their aircraft, to get some cash rolling in while Ireland is closed. Not that the UK is much different now.

2. They have found, through their connecting flight operation, that certain markets can support direct services, which are currently not served by British airlines. They can see a business opportunity and want to exploit it.

My bet is on number two. I'll be interested to see what happens. No reason why they shouldn't start flying from the UK really, as they have the brand recognition there not to mention people already fly them across the Atlantic over Dublin.


I wonder if Brexit could cause issues for their BHD-LHR route and the Belfast-based jets. There are already rumbles and rumours that Stobart may have to place some of their ATRs onto the G- register next year.
 
Fliplot
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:39 pm

Each to their own opinion. EI with the new brand wanted to 'de-irish' the brand - their own comments at the time of the launch! Mission accomplished.
They tried Manchester and Gatwick, although shorthaul only. They are not an LCC and their cost structure means they need bums at the front of the aircraft too.
What about a UK via SNN operation, with preclearance at SNN? Price csensitive guests should not mind!
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:06 pm

Fliplot wrote:
Each to their own opinion. EI with the new brand wanted to 'de-irish' the brand - their own comments at the time of the launch! Mission accomplished.
They tried Manchester and Gatwick, although shorthaul only. They are not an LCC and their cost structure means they need bums at the front of the aircraft too.
What about a UK via SNN operation, with preclearance at SNN? Price csensitive guests should not mind!


The SNN stopover is dead and gone. It worked in a limited way on the BA1 LCY - SNN - JFK as that was a small number of Premium passengers who were processed very quickly with comfort.
It would not work for the masses. Also Saying they need to have bums up front but then forcing them down to SNN but the price sensitive guests wont mind kind of creates a conflict. Unless of course Aer Lingus were to cheapen its brand and offer low cost J fares.

No the UK market will be point to point with the new LR's . I would not say that they took away from the Irish identity either in the new brand. It was modernised and reflected modern Ireland. When people see it they still see Ireland. From the check in to the lounges ( when open ) with onboard PTV content to produce. it is still very much an Irish brand.
 
Fliplot
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:23 pm

I didn't force them to do anything! I asked a question! We are discussing options are we not? Was not aware SNN was that busy it would be unable to handle a few extra flights - a domestic arrival in the US is a stress-less experience.
Again each to their own - my take on rhe brand is bland! Only time will tell.
 
User001
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:23 pm

Fliplot wrote:
Each to their own opinion. EI with the new brand wanted to 'de-irish' the brand - their own comments at the time of the launch! Mission accomplished.
They tried Manchester and Gatwick, although shorthaul only. They are not an LCC and their cost structure means they need bums at the front of the aircraft too.
What about a UK via SNN operation, with preclearance at SNN? Price csensitive guests should not mind!


The Manchester short haul network was made of 5th freedom flights due to restrictions at the time.

The most recent 'out of Ireland' expansion was LGW only, and as we know, didn't fare very well.

Low competition routes, with predominantly VFR and leisure will fare better this time around, even if it is a short term solution to the current issues. I do wonder if business travel does eventually rebound, the aircraft will be recalled to Ireland.
 
Fliplot
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:42 pm

Assuming the business traffic is willing to wait?! In my view Irish people will return to travelling once we know it is okay to do so.
 
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klm617
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:43 pm

OA260 wrote:
Aer Lingus in British government talks on direct UK-US flights

The airline has cut flights for a month from Dublin to eight European cities

Aer Lingus has entered high-level discussions with senior British government officials about operating direct services from the UK to the US, documents reveal.

Mark Bosly thanked the airline "for our very interesting meeting" about what he refers to as "Aer Lingus UK".

The revelation comes as the airline this weekend cancelled all of its services from Dublin into eight European cities for at least a month beginning on November 16.

https://amp.independent.ie/business/wor ... 88149.html



There is plenty of markets they can operate their planes from out of Ireland that aren't connected to Ireland . Why should they want to operate out of an already over saturated market to more oversaturated markets in the USA. Recipe for disaster.
Last edited by klm617 on Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
Fliplot
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:45 pm

Such as?
What markets are you referring to?
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:50 pm

klm617 wrote:
OA260 wrote:
Aer Lingus in British government talks on direct UK-US flights

The airline has cut flights for a month from Dublin to eight European cities

Aer Lingus has entered high-level discussions with senior British government officials about operating direct services from the UK to the US, documents reveal.

Mark Bosly thanked the airline "for our very interesting meeting" about what he refers to as "Aer Lingus UK".

The revelation comes as the airline this weekend cancelled all of its services from Dublin into eight European cities for at least a month beginning on November 16.

https://amp.independent.ie/business/wor ... 88149.html



There is plenty of markets they can operate there planes from out of Ireland that aren't connected to Ireland . Why should they want to operate out of an already over saturated market to more oversaturated markets in the USA. Recipe for disaster.


So what routes do you suggest ? Personally I think things are going to be very different post COVID even with a vaccine. Airlines such as Aer Lingus will be less ambitious for a number of years unless by some miracle there is suddenly a huge demand.
 
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klm617
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:04 pm

Fliplot wrote:
Such as?
What markets are you referring to?


They can continue to follow their plan of creating low cost TATL service with narrowbodies using DUB as a hub to connect to Central Europe and beyond. Why would they want to compete for London traffic when they are already more than enough competitors already. I think the underlying motive for this is replacing BA on some routes out of the UK at a lower cost structure. There are plenty of untapped North American markets that are looking for price relief that are in ranger of the 321LR.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
Fliplot
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:11 pm

Sorry I don't follow you klm617? No one said they were going to try London. Unless I am mistaken BA have no regional UK routes to the US so E I are not replacing BA. I will accept that EI have brand awareness in the UK and they nust have an idea on regional UK numbers to the US ( from the DUB hub) so trying that market makes some sense.
It is risky but with a larger UK population the risk is probably more managable, just probably though.
 
User001
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:15 pm

klm617 wrote:
Why would they want to compete for London traffic when they are already more than enough competitors already.


These Aer Lingus UK flights wouldnt be from London. Previous articles have already stated they would serve regional UK cities.

Biased view maybe, but if these flights come to fruition, they have Manchester written all over them.

MAN is already one of EIs largest connection markets. MAN-JFK is now under served, and MAN-ORD can fit into AAs connections, MAN-BOS can fit into the leisure market.

A daily A321N on MAN-JFK, and another A321N doing 4 weekly ORD and 3 weekly BOS shouldn't be too much of a stretch for EI.

Fit into AA connections at one end, and a a limited but easy to grow tranche of IAG connections at the other (BCN/MAD/LHR/LCY/BLL/AGP/PMI etc), as well as a decent local leisure and VFR Market, it shouldn't be too hard to fill 2 sub-200 seat aircraft a day.
Last edited by User001 on Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Fliplot
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:23 pm

The one they need to watch out for is B6. Competition with them would be difficult. So maybe just as well B6 have their initial sights on LHR!
 
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klm617
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:31 pm

User001 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Why would they want to compete for London traffic when they are already more than enough competitors already.


These Aer Lingus UK flights wouldnt be from London. Previous articles have already stated they would serve regional UK cities.

Biased view maybe, but if these flights come to fruition, they have Manchester written all over them.

MAN is already one of EIs largest connection markets. MAN-JFK is now under served, and MAN-ORD can fit into AAs connections, MAN-BOS can fit into the leisure market.

A daily A321N on MAN-JFK, and another A321N doing 4 weekly ORD and 3 weekly BOS shouldn't be too much of a stretch for EI.

Fit into AA connections at one end, and a a limited but easy to grow tranche of IAG connections at the other (BCN/MAD/LHR/LCY/BLL/AGP/PMI etc), as well as a decent local leisure and VFR Market, it shouldn't be too hard to fill 2 sub-200 seat aircraft a day.


That maybe true but MAN is pretty well covered by VS/DL. Don't really see what EI has to gain by operating out of MAN. If there was a market to serve BA would already be flying these routes to connect to the AA network as you say
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:39 pm

klm617 wrote:
That maybe true but MAN is pretty well covered by VS/DL. Don't really see what EI has to gain by operating out of MAN. If there was a market to serve BA would already be flying these routes to connect to the AA network as you say


There is a market there, without a doubt. BA choose not to fly the routes as they prefer to funnel the passengers into London Heathrow and then across the Atlantic. Historically the reason for this is that BA has high costs which make it difficult for them to make money out of the regional cities on transatlantic. Therefore the people in BHX, MAN, EDI, GLA, NCL and so on all fly to London to get their transatlantic BA flights.

Another reason, which is related, is that BA can make more money using their fleet on other routes. Finally, BA don't have the correct fleet to serve the UK regions on transatlantic. Their 777s, 787s and A350s are too large.

Airlines with a lower cost base, such as EI, along with the Airbus A321LR, will be able to fly from the UK regions to the US east coast AND make money.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
User001
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:52 pm

klm617 wrote:
That maybe true but MAN is pretty well covered by VS/DL.


VS and DL is unlikely to ever serve MAN-ORD, there's now a questionmark over how long it will take them to re-add BOS, and JFK is down to a single A333, after a peak of B744s and A332s just 2 years ago. Even in these times that's undeserved.


Don't really see what EI has to gain by operating out of MAN


You may not see it, but with lots of data generated from connections and the greater IAG group, clearly they do see a reason to at least explore it.


If there was a market to serve BA would already be flying these routes to connect to the AA network as you say


I'm afraid your looking at that picture far too simplistically. It's not as straight forward to say it as you put it. Aircraft availibility, premium heavy nature, higher crew costs and slots to protect at LGW and LHR mean that its not a question if BA could make money, it was about if they could make as much money MAN as the same aircraft operating at LHR.

For the last sentence above, the dynamic for 2021 to 2023 has changed significantly. Businesses route demand will be way down, leisure and VFR will be King, and that's where MAN is really strong. It can supply those 2 demographics by the bucket load.
 
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klm617
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:33 pm

User001 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
That maybe true but MAN is pretty well covered by VS/DL.


VS and DL is unlikely to ever serve MAN-ORD, there's now a questionmark over how long it will take them to re-add BOS, and JFK is down to a single A333, after a peak of B744s and A332s just 2 years ago. Even in these times that's undeserved.


Don't really see what EI has to gain by operating out of MAN


You may not see it, but with lots of data generated from connections and the greater IAG group, clearly they do see a reason to at least explore it.


If there was a market to serve BA would already be flying these routes to connect to the AA network as you say


I'm afraid your looking at that picture far too simplistically. It's not as straight forward to say it as you put it. Aircraft availibility, premium heavy nature, higher crew costs and slots to protect at LGW and LHR mean that its not a question if BA could make money, it was about if they could make as much money MAN as the same aircraft operating at LHR.

For the last sentence above, the dynamic for 2021 to 2023 has changed significantly. Businesses route demand will be way down, leisure and VFR will be King, and that's where MAN is really strong. It can supply those 2 demographics by the bucket load.


Many airlines have tried to make TATL MAN service work and it's failed every time British Midland, American and British Airways only VS/DL has continuously served the market. If I were Irish I'd be concerned about BA taking EI assets and redeploying them to serve the needs of BA rather than their own country. EI was doing fine developing their own TATL hub and now IAG wants to put the brakes on that by redirecting traffic away from Ireland and hurting the growth and well being of the Dublin market.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
User001
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:37 pm

klm617 wrote:

Many airlines have tried to make TATL MAN service work and it's failed every time British Midland, American and British Airways only VS/DL has continuously served the market. If I were Irish I'd be concerned about BA taking EI assets and redeploying them to serve the needs of BA rather than their own country. EI was doing fine developing their own TATL hub and now IAG wants to put the brakes on that by redirecting traffic away from Ireland and hurting the growth and well being of the Dublin market.


Again your looking at things far too simplistically, but you seem determined to be outraged at this news so I'll leave it there as better things to do.
 
Fliplot
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:48 pm

I am Irish and I am not concerned by EI's current discussions with the UK Government. In times of disruption all options need to be explored. I do think that MAN is probably one option, with other regional UK airports under consideration. Remember a transatlantic service for a regional airport is a dream route.
 
User001
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:52 pm

Fliplot wrote:
I am Irish and I am not concerned by EI's current discussions with the UK Government. In times of disruption all options need to be explored. I do think that MAN is probably one option, with other regional UK airports under consideration. Remember a transatlantic service for a regional airport is a dream route.


Exactly, and if this strategy works, and brings money I to Aer Lingus and keep it going, then what harm could it do? In terms of Irish routes, short term 'pain' for long term gain?
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:53 pm

Government must act to guide Irish aviation through Covid-19 turbulence

Dómhnal Slattery

Shannon Airport is a core national asset and one of the key drivers of economic growth in both the industrial and tourism sectors in the Midwest and along the Atlantic seaboard. Shannon Group activities, which include the airport, generate in excess of €3.5bn within the Irish economy and contribute €1.1bn in tax revenue to the exchequer per year. Directly and indirectly, Shannon Group's existence supports over 46,000 jobs throughout the Midwest region.

Dómhnal Slattery is chief executive of Avolon, the third-largest aircraft lessor in the world. He is also a member of the Clare Economic Taskforce

https://amp.independent.ie/world-news/c ... 88187.html
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:02 pm

klm617 wrote:
Many airlines have tried to make TATL MAN service work and it's failed every time British Midland, American and British Airways only VS/DL has continuously served the market. If I were Irish I'd be concerned about BA taking EI assets and redeploying them to serve the needs of BA rather than their own country. EI was doing fine developing their own TATL hub and now IAG wants to put the brakes on that by redirecting traffic away from Ireland and hurting the growth and well being of the Dublin market.


Each of those airlines that tried to make it work previously had cost structures and a commercial offering that is different to what Aer Lingus can bring to the market. Also, not one of those airlines had the advantage of the Airbus A321LR. It is good to look to the past, however just because it was not successful in the past does not mean it can't ever be. Times change, new technology comes to the market and indeed, new business models. The Aer Lingus value carrier strategy is a proven success; there's no reason why it won't translate to the UK regions.

This comment "I'd be concerned about BA taking EI assets and redeploying them to serve the needs of BA rather than their own country" shows you fundamentally misunderstand the operating structure at IAG. Each carrier is responsible for their own financial performance against targets set at group level. Each carrier operates independently, with its own CEO and management team. If EI management believe this will make them money, then they should have at it. Needless to say, if it turns out that it makes more financial sense to operate the assets out of Ireland, that's where they'll be. It's a financially driven decision.

There's also no basis for your comment that "IAG wants to put on the brakes..." (etc). Unless you have some kind of proof you can reference, I wouldn't go making unsubstantiated statements like that.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:17 pm

Nphet 'frightening the life out of our young people'
Ryanair's Eddie Wilson claims air travel is being 'demonised' to scare away Christmas travellers, writes Niamh Horan

Ryanair CEO Eddie Wilson has launched a scathing attack on Nphet after chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan's edict to people that it is "too dangerous" to fly home for Christmas.
Wilson accused Nphet chiefs of becoming "obsessed" with "demonising air travel... based on no data" and warned that the "blanket ban" is "scaring the life out of young people" who are desperate to see their families at Christmas.

www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/nphe ... 92259.html
 
YUAND
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:19 pm

I would be concerned about an EI UK venture cannibalising the hub in Dublin. Obviously, COVID presents a huge challenge and will drive a huge change in the industry but how smart is eating away at your core hub during a time of crisis? Further, the sector impacted the strongest by COVID is TATL travel so why would EI seek to deploy further capacity in this market? I think EI's weak pre-covid short-haul network is coming back to haunt them a little. This could be mitigated by the introduction of E Jets or similar size aircraft.
 
bennett123
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:52 pm

Is he concerned that people will be too scared to buy tickets on FR?.
 
Fliplot
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:43 pm

No idea! Think its better that EI use the assets they have rather than trying out new aircraft types. It would be helpful if EI had some regional jets but they don't. They may well have some after they update the regional contract.
I do agree with the general comment on the weakness in their shorthaul operations. Not sure they have bothered to push the DUB hub in europe. Most european connections are dependant on the second wave of US flights from DUB, which are limited.
Might just be the regional tender will have some increased significance?
 
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shamrock350
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:31 pm

Aer Lingus is wisely exploring every possibility for revenue generation in the short to medium term. The regional airports in the north of England or in Scotland along with local governments will be desperate to get things moving again and Aer Lingus no doubt wants to be primed to take advantage of that.

This all needs to be viewed in a short term outlook, airlines need revenue, they need cold hard cash in the bank and will hunt down every opportunity that arises to provide that as quickly as possible.

Those bewildered or concerned about the airline abandoning its hub strategy or even abandoning Ireland in general need to look at the wider picture, the hub is currently dead or maybe dormant is a better word. There is zero traffic flowing through the doors of Dublin Airport and we can blame the government or nphet all we want, fact is much of Europe is now in similar levels of national lockdowns with the same non-essential travel advice. In the meantime, while the hub strategy is dormant, Aer Lingus will chase cash where they can find it, that could mean going to Manchester, Edinburgh, Glasgow etc. where the airports or local governments will support them with incentives resulting in a healthy boost for the bank account at Shamrock House and a market that could potentially recover slightly faster than Ireland, at least early on.

I expect a three year plan is being drawn up, with IAG quite vocal it doesn't expect things to recover within that time, temporary solutions that potentially diverge from the current strategy are likely to occur.

With that all said, I think the predictions of Ireland's imminent demise are greatly exaggerated and if Aer Lingus does redirect some assets to other markets, it will be a short/medium term measure and they'll eventually return to Ireland as the country, along with the rest of the world, recovers.
 
Skyblue39
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:43 pm

England has just gone into another lockdown and this news from EI was released a number of weeks ago. The UK is not exactly a dream market now for EI to base aircraft in where hundreds of thousands of people have already lost their jobs, and sadly in the coming months many more will.

UK economic output shrank by 20.4% in the second quarter of 2020, the worst quarterly slump on record, pushing the country into the deepest recession of any major global economy. This crash in GDP in the April-June period, compared with the first quarter, is the worst since quarterly records began in 1955.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/06/econ ... index.html
 
User001
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:56 pm

England has just gone into another lockdown and this news from EI was released a number of weeks ago


And this latest info in the current article suggests that Aer Lingus and the UK govt spoke to each other as little as 1 week ago, so clearly its still on the agenda.

We are also talking about S21, so worrying about the current lockdown is almost irrelevant to their proposed launch date.

Yes, the GDP is down, but we have to look at when recovery occurs, which it will eventually, no matter how gloomy your outlook.
 
Skyblue39
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:07 pm

User001 wrote:
England has just gone into another lockdown and this news from EI was released a number of weeks ago


And this latest info in the current article suggests that Aer Lingus and the UK govt spoke to each other as little as 1 week ago, so clearly its still on the agenda.

We are also talking about S21, so worrying about the current lockdown is almost irrelevant to their proposed launch date.

Yes, the GDP is down, but we have to look at when recovery occurs, which it will eventually, no matter how gloomy your outlook.


And recovery will happen everywhere, not just in the UK.
It will happen in Ireland too, you know! Nobody can predict the future. A lot can happen between now and S21 in these uncertain times.
 
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shamrock350
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:57 am

Skyblue39 wrote:
User001 wrote:
England has just gone into another lockdown and this news from EI was released a number of weeks ago


And this latest info in the current article suggests that Aer Lingus and the UK govt spoke to each other as little as 1 week ago, so clearly its still on the agenda.

We are also talking about S21, so worrying about the current lockdown is almost irrelevant to their proposed launch date.

Yes, the GDP is down, but we have to look at when recovery occurs, which it will eventually, no matter how gloomy your outlook.


And recovery will happen everywhere, not just in the UK.
It will happen in Ireland too, you know! Nobody can predict the future. A lot can happen between now and S21 in these uncertain times.


Also worth taking into account just what may be on offer to Aer Lingus from these regions and their airports. Aer Lingus has proven in the past to be a savvy negotiator when it comes to launching new services, the deal secured with Hartford was likely seen as a blueprint for future airport negotiations in North America had Airbus delivered the A321LR on time but with the current situation those tactics can be deployed elsewhere.

Scotland and the north of England have had their relationship with Westminster tested to the limits in recent months, there's a real hunger to forge their own path either through more control of their local economy or in Scotland's case, actual independence. In the meantime this means politicians, local councils and businesses in these areas are looking to seize any opportunity they can to reduce the perceived over reliance on London and the south.

In the early days of recovery, securing a flagship transatlantic service on a fleet of glossy new aircraft by a well known and respected carrier could be a winner for local politicians who have rightly or wrongly played the anti-westminster drum throughout this crisis.

There are of course many unknowns and things that will need to be factored in such as the US election results, Brexit, the overall future of the United Kingdom, our economic situation in Ireland and the progress the world make in fighting this virus but simply exploring every possibility can't hurt.
 
oldJoe
Posts: 245
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:34 am

shamrock350 wrote:
Skyblue39 wrote:
User001 wrote:

And this latest info in the current article suggests that Aer Lingus and the UK govt spoke to each other as little as 1 week ago, so clearly its still on the agenda.

We are also talking about S21, so worrying about the current lockdown is almost irrelevant to their proposed launch date.

Yes, the GDP is down, but we have to look at when recovery occurs, which it will eventually, no matter how gloomy your outlook.


And recovery will happen everywhere, not just in the UK.
It will happen in Ireland too, you know! Nobody can predict the future. A lot can happen between now and S21 in these uncertain times.


Also worth taking into account just what may be on offer to Aer Lingus from these regions and their airports. Aer Lingus has proven in the past to be a savvy negotiator when it comes to launching new services, the deal secured with Hartford was likely seen as a blueprint for future airport negotiations in North America had Airbus delivered the A321LR on time but with the current situation those tactics can be deployed elsewhere.

Scotland and the north of England have had their relationship with Westminster tested to the limits in recent months, there's a real hunger to forge their own path either through more control of their local economy or in Scotland's case, actual independence. In the meantime this means politicians, local councils and businesses in these areas are looking to seize any opportunity they can to reduce the perceived over reliance on London and the south.

In the early days of recovery, securing a flagship transatlantic service on a fleet of glossy new aircraft by a well known and respected carrier could be a winner for local politicians who have rightly or wrongly played the anti-westminster drum throughout this crisis.

There are of course many unknowns and things that will need to be factored in such as the US election results, Brexit, the overall future of the United Kingdom, our economic situation in Ireland and the progress the world make in fighting this virus but simply exploring every possibility can't hurt.


Respect , your post ist down to earth !!!
I`m not Irish but I love to visit Ireland and the Irish folks !
If my crystal ball could tell me that I`m right about the 1st of January 2021 I would predict that Dublin airport could be the winner after this crisis !
All you Irish people , not Westminster but the EU is standing behind you !
 
User001
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:00 am

Skyblue39 wrote:

And recovery will happen everywhere, not just in the UK.
It will happen in Ireland too, you know! Nobody can predict the future. A lot can happen between now and S21 in these uncertain times.


I didn't say it wouldn't happen in Ireland, I was merely countering your argument that the current lockdown could put EI off, and also countering that the info is weeks old the latest bit if info isn't weeks old

And as you say, a lot can happen between now an S21 so the argument about the UKs gloomy position also works both ways...
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:11 am

Emirates to outsource jobs at Dublin Airport

Emirates is to let as many as 60pc of its operational staff at Dublin Airport go, according to aviation sources.

The Dubai-based carrier is consulting with its Irish workforce about potential voluntary redundancies but compulsory redundancies are likely if the required numbers are not achieved, according to sources.

https://amp.independent.ie/business/iri ... 88152.html



Ryanair posts first summer loss in decades, flags more capacity cuts

Ryanair has today posted a loss for its key summer period for the first time in decades.

It also warned that the Covid-19 crisis could force further cuts and leave capacity next summer as little as half of normal levels.

Europe's largest low-cost airline said Covid-19 restrictions had pushed passenger numbers down 80% in the six months ended September 30, when it typically makes most of its annual profit.

www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1102/1175337-ryanair/



Airports group DAA borrows €500m as passenger numbers plunge
Funding gives group liquidity as it struggles with fallout from Covid-19 pandemic

State airports company DAA is borrowing €500 million through a bond issue to provide the group with long-term cash.

DAA, responsible for Cork and Dublin airports, recently confirmed that total passenger numbers are set to tumble to nine million this year from 35.5 million in 2019 as it grapples with the impact of Covid-19 on world air travel.

www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-a ... 0?mode=amp
 
BrianDromey
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:02 am

The reality is that EI now have a modern fleet that is too large for the current market forecasts. S21 is still a way off in real terms, but in terms of planning most of it will have already been done. They know, best case scenario, how many A330s and A321LRs they will need. I suspect that the A330s will mainly be used where Cargo or range is required and the A321s will do the majority of the East coast, at frequencies lower than 2019/2020. It is going to take a number of seasons for demand to grow again, across the sector. The EI fleet and crews need something to do. Looking to operate from UK airports is nothing new for EI and nothing to do with BA either. With the exception of LEVEL IAG gives the OpCos a huge amount autonomy and BA just doesn't have the right size aircraft for MAN, their 787s are far too premium heavy and the leisure 777s are too large. If MAN is the primary airport of interest for EI they will be carefully looking at the competition. DL and VS have a good product and a great connecting network from JFK and ATL as well as a hub at BOS. Their widebodies are on the large side, though, but the smaller A321LR might allow EI to break into the market at a relatively high frequency. When they do join the oneworld JV, they would have good connecting opportunities in the likes of ORD and PHL, BOS is bigger for AA than JFK, which they consider a hub. These have all had long-term service from a variety of airlines over the years, although it does have to be said that no-one has made the US work consistently from MAN. Likely because none of the recent attempts have had any short-haul feed and in times of reduced demand there is no way to fill the aircraft.

I think time is the only thing for this pandemic, governments of all colours, across the western world have fallen into the same situation. the only strategy that seems to have worked is in Asia and NZ, where shorter, draconian, true lockdowns have worked well, as long as the time is used to build testing, tracking and tracing. That just has not happened in the west and there is little evidence that track and trace is being used effectively, much less retooled to be effective, in the UK or Ireland. I don't think any national testing system exists in the US.
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Irish 11/20: Testing times

Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:06 am

BrianDromey wrote:
Their widebodies are on the large side, though, but the smaller A321LR might allow EI to break into the market at a relatively high frequency.

I think time is the only thing for this pandemic, governments of all colours, across the western world have fallen into the same situation. the only strategy that seems to have worked is in Asia and NZ, where shorter, draconian, true lockdowns have worked well, as long as the time is used to build testing, tracking and tracing. That just has not happened in the west and there is little evidence that track and trace is being used effectively, much less retooled to be effective, in the UK or Ireland. I don't think any national testing system exists in the US.


I don't think frequency is important in this instance - I think the A321LR works for size and efficiency. It can match the demand of such thin routes and fly them long distances very efficiently.

On the pandemic with aviation, you're not wrong on Asia. China Southern just turned in a quarterly profit, thanks to the Chinese domestic market rebounding. Australia is poised to follow suit, with the final internal border restrictions in the process of coming down as 2020 closes. I don't foresee Europe rebounding to any decent level perhaps until Easter or later at this point.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!

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