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777ER
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New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:58 am

Welcome to the November 2020 edition.

Link to October 2020 viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1452439#unread
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777ER
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:05 am

Niue and New Zealand in discussions about a bubble

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pac ... ubble-soon
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anstar
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:35 am

Re the NZ / aus strategy they are pretty much the same thing.

Australia wants no community transmission and calls it suppression as they know they will have cases in Quarantine. NZ call it elimination...but will actually not be able to eliminate as they will also have cases in quarantine. But the end goal for both is the same - no spread outside managed quarantine.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:53 pm

anstar wrote:
Re the NZ / aus strategy they are pretty much the same thing.

Australia wants no community transmission and calls it suppression as they know they will have cases in Quarantine. NZ call it elimination...but will actually not be able to eliminate as they will also have cases in quarantine. But the end goal for both is the same - no spread outside managed quarantine.


I'd agree with that. I guess the question is what each side is prepared to "live with" or what the thresholds are regarding any response to future community transmission.

For example, hypothetically we have a two way bubble and NSW finds a few cases on community transmission. We've seen NSW 'live on' so to speak and we've seen level 3 lockdown here. I do realize there's a lot of finer detail that goes into making these calls but I think we're a lot more cautious that most states in Australia (WA/QLD exempt).

We could see each side react their own way and I'm sure we will. But if I head to SYD for a week and the above scenario plays out - what happens if NZ close up shop. Do I end up in 14 day quarantine on my return or will we see recommended self isolation?

The up side is, there's a lot of research now that shows strong, fast and reliable contact tracing is more effective than lockdowns when dealing with outbreaks like this. Something NSW has done very well with. I think this should give some level of optimism to those reviewing this situation.

8 weeks out from XMas - there will be some pressure to have something open over the coming weeks if things continue to drop dramatically over there.

It'll be an interesting month.

We could then ask the same question re the Pacific.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:14 am

Wanaka to Christchurch service takes off

The inaugural Sounds Air Wanaka to Christchurch service took off in perfect conditions this morning with a full contingent of nine passengers.
Operating out of the building once used by Air New Zealand and now occupied by Southern Alps Air who provided Sounds Air with ground services, there was a crowd of well wishers, including Queenstown Airport chief executive Colin Keel, Queenstown Lakes Mayor Jim Boult, and Sounds Air managing director Andrew Crawford.

more and video:
https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/wanaka/wa ... vice-takes

Hopefully this is a success for them it will be interesting to see if it survives in the winter. With the inversion layer often over Wanaka could be a major problem for the operation causing flight cancellations.
 
Whoopeecock
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:57 am

Another turbo prop to consider, but with ATRs still arriving, I think the size will be too similar.
https://www.scramble.nl/civil-news/embr ... -turboprop
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:11 pm

Interesting in this day and age to note that ZK-NBW / HL7620 (747-419BCF) is still going strong and very active with Asiana Cargo, having been ferried to TLV for freighter conversion in 2011. Data from the last week shows it has recently visited SIN, SGN, KIX, ANC, SEA, DFW, SFO, and ICN of course. Quite impressive.
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ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:11 pm

NZ321 wrote:
Interesting in this day and age to note that ZK-NBW / HL7620 (747-419BCF) is still going strong and very active with Asiana Cargo, having been ferried to TLV for freighter conversion in 2011. Data from the last week shows it has recently visited SIN, SGN, KIX, ANC, SEA, DFW, SFO, and ICN of course. Quite impressive.


Most freighters are flying, quite a few that have been parked for some time have been reactivated. NBW was NZ last 744 delivered in 1999. Not sure if any other ex NZ 744s are still flying right now though?
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:49 pm

Whoopeecock wrote:
Another turbo prop to consider, but with ATRs still arriving, I think the size will be too similar.
https://www.scramble.nl/civil-news/embr ... -turboprop


Interesting, entering service from 2027 and looking like it'll sit alongside the ATR with regard to seating capacity.

Given the -600's will all about around 8 years old I see zero chance or NZ being interested anytime soon. Couple that with NZ working with Airbus on an electric solution and I think the future of this place in the fleet is fairly secure.

If however someone came out with a hybrid or eclectic solution in the 40-60 seat market.. well I'd say NZ should be first in line.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:20 am

RNZ reporting that direct flights to Tasmania will start in January.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/430093 ... t-morrison

Not clear which carrier will be involved, but if 3x weekly in summer and 2x weekly in winter, as suggested in the article, it would be a nice fit with NZ's North American flights. If, of course, they ever resume.

As a regular visitor to Tassie who hates the transit in SYD or MEL I can't wait. Bring it on!
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:45 am

DavidByrne wrote:
RNZ reporting that direct flights to Tasmania will start in January.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/430093 ... t-morrison

Not clear which carrier will be involved, but if 3x weekly in summer and 2x weekly in winter, as suggested in the article, it would be a nice fit with NZ's North American flights. If, of course, they ever resume.

As a regular visitor to Tassie who hates the transit in SYD or MEL I can't wait. Bring it on!


Does also seem to hint that the Tasman bubble won’t happen until January. Otherwise you would think flights would be starting next month.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sat Nov 07, 2020 9:28 pm

zkncj wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
RNZ reporting that direct flights to Tasmania will start in January.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/430093 ... t-morrison

Not clear which carrier will be involved, but if 3x weekly in summer and 2x weekly in winter, as suggested in the article, it would be a nice fit with NZ's North American flights. If, of course, they ever resume.

As a regular visitor to Tassie who hates the transit in SYD or MEL I can't wait. Bring it on!


Does also seem to hint that the Tasman bubble won’t happen until January. Otherwise you would think flights would be starting next month.


Recent news stories have it that no Tasman flights till next year. The challenge is always to get a airline interested as most think Hobart to NZ is not viable.
But its a safe destination to open up now in this new world we are all living in. I am really keen to visit Tassie the demand will come if tickets are priced reasonably


HOPES THAT AUSSIES WILL BE ABLE TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE DITCH BEFORE CHRISTMAS HAVE SEEMINGLY BEEN DASHED, WITH NEW ZEALAND COMMITTED TO KEEPING ITS BORDER CLOSED FOR THE TIME BEING.


from:
https://www.travelweekly.com.au/article ... this-year/
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sun Nov 08, 2020 12:46 am

NZ516 wrote:
Recent news stories have it that no Tasman flights till next year. The challenge is always to get a airline interested as most think Hobart to NZ is not viable.
But its a safe destination to open up now in this new world we are all living in. I am really keen to visit Tassie the demand will come if tickets are priced reasonably/


Could be an route for something like Alliance (QQ), that would align with them bringing there e190s onboard.

They have recently launched out into some more lesiure routes, making the most of the current situation.

An e190 could be an good sized aircraft to start the route of with too.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sun Nov 08, 2020 6:15 am

NZ516 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
RNZ reporting that direct flights to Tasmania will start in January.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/430093 ... t-morrison

Not clear which carrier will be involved, but if 3x weekly in summer and 2x weekly in winter, as suggested in the article, it would be a nice fit with NZ's North American flights. If, of course, they ever resume.

As a regular visitor to Tassie who hates the transit in SYD or MEL I can't wait. Bring it on!


Does also seem to hint that the Tasman bubble won’t happen until January. Otherwise you would think flights would be starting next month.


Recent news stories have it that no Tasman flights till next year. The challenge is always to get a airline interested as most think Hobart to NZ is not viable.
But its a safe destination to open up now in this new world we are all living in. I am really keen to visit Tassie the demand will come if tickets are priced reasonably


HOPES THAT AUSSIES WILL BE ABLE TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE DITCH BEFORE CHRISTMAS HAVE SEEMINGLY BEEN DASHED, WITH NEW ZEALAND COMMITTED TO KEEPING ITS BORDER CLOSED FOR THE TIME BEING.


from:
https://www.travelweekly.com.au/article ... this-year/


The thing with WHEN a Trans Tasman bubble will happen is no one actually knows. Not even the PM I don't believe. Although her team will be able to make the most informed and educated prediction should the choose to discuss it. Which I'm sure they have BUT they have never made any clear statement on it. I think the closest we got was after lockdown here when the PM made a comment that 'September' seemed right. Was that perhaps around early May? But firstly, that's their opinion. The Aussies will then hold their own.

So while some will rule out this year, it's all just predictions or we could use other terms such as a guesses or even opinions.

Having said that, I don't disagree and my prediction/opinion/guess is it won't be this year. When we came into level 1 it seemed keeping it out at the border was very doable. However it's now potentially clear that while border controls work the majority of the time it's still very high risk and that's without any international movement and additionally state by state international travel can be extensively abused and hard to Police.

Based on that I think there's a LOT for both sides to iron our before any BUBBLE will be formed. It will happen but I think there needs to be a lot more desire from both sides to get everyone round the table to work out these processes.

That'll take us into Autumn next year. That's my guess but I'm ever hopefully for a miracle

If I want to be an optimist; with agreed world class contact tracing, strong borders no other bubbles and 28 days zero community transmission outside of expected cases (i.e. family transmission) we could see something post the near year.

I've also heard some executives in the tourism/travel industry suggest July/August 2021 for a Bubble?!?!

For the record, there are a number of interesting options out there in addition to HBA...
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Mon Nov 09, 2020 7:55 am

A new domestic route has just started up with a daily scheduled Glenorchy Air service linking Queenstown to Stewart Island who would have thought of this one.
http://3rdlevelnz.blogspot.com/2020/11/ ... sland.html
 
aerokiwi
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:49 am

NZ6 wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
zkncj wrote:

Does also seem to hint that the Tasman bubble won’t happen until January. Otherwise you would think flights would be starting next month.


Recent news stories have it that no Tasman flights till next year. The challenge is always to get a airline interested as most think Hobart to NZ is not viable.
But its a safe destination to open up now in this new world we are all living in. I am really keen to visit Tassie the demand will come if tickets are priced reasonably


HOPES THAT AUSSIES WILL BE ABLE TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE DITCH BEFORE CHRISTMAS HAVE SEEMINGLY BEEN DASHED, WITH NEW ZEALAND COMMITTED TO KEEPING ITS BORDER CLOSED FOR THE TIME BEING.


from:
https://www.travelweekly.com.au/article ... this-year/


The thing with WHEN a Trans Tasman bubble will happen is no one actually knows. Not even the PM I don't believe. Although her team will be able to make the most informed and educated prediction should the choose to discuss it. Which I'm sure they have BUT they have never made any clear statement on it. I think the closest we got was after lockdown here when the PM made a comment that 'September' seemed right. Was that perhaps around early May? But firstly, that's their opinion. The Aussies will then hold their own.

So while some will rule out this year, it's all just predictions or we could use other terms such as a guesses or even opinions.

Having said that, I don't disagree and my prediction/opinion/guess is it won't be this year. When we came into level 1 it seemed keeping it out at the border was very doable. However it's now potentially clear that while border controls work the majority of the time it's still very high risk and that's without any international movement and additionally state by state international travel can be extensively abused and hard to Police.

Based on that I think there's a LOT for both sides to iron our before any BUBBLE will be formed. It will happen but I think there needs to be a lot more desire from both sides to get everyone round the table to work out these processes.

That'll take us into Autumn next year. That's my guess but I'm ever hopefully for a miracle

If I want to be an optimist; with agreed world class contact tracing, strong borders no other bubbles and 28 days zero community transmission outside of expected cases (i.e. family transmission) we could see something post the near year.

I've also heard some executives in the tourism/travel industry suggest July/August 2021 for a Bubble?!?!

For the record, there are a number of interesting options out there in addition to HBA...


Having now worked on the COVID response for the past 6 months in Australia (one of gagillions, I might add), I thought I'd check in on this thread and see what was happening after the stillbirth of last month's thread - the smallest ever? Strangled at birth when debate around the travel bubble emerged, it seems.

Exactly why there is not a travel bubble between NZ and Australia is pretty perplexing. If the NZ Government was remotely competent, they would have developed a robust track and trace system by now alongside establishing protocols for travel and outbreak management. But they haven't, seemingly, which is remarkably slack at both a political and bureaucratic level. I'm sure the excuses will prevail, though looking at the latest mini-cluster it appears that the government remains hopelessly inept it outbreak management.

While some seem to revel in the prospect of a doomsday or a permanent hermit kingdom, the fact is that the virus is circulating everywhere, likely at very low levels even in seemingly virus-free Australian states and in New Zealand. Sewerage testing is demonstrating that it's out there, but may just be carried by individuals who aren't high shedders of the virus or who are not particularly social. So the question becomes, how do you learn to live with it without sacrificing everything? And the answer is - competent and robust track and trace, combined with social distancing and hygiene practices.

Hand this off to your chief medical officer with the instruction to eliminate a virus and of course, closed borders will be their response. Politicians are using that to abrogate their duty to consider the whole picture. But, believe it or not, there is so much more to life (remember?). A travel bubble between NZ and Australia is an absolute no-brainer if the NZ Government is up to speed, and if there are still unresolved issues then NZ needs to pull finger. The airlines can get back to work, people can get back to work and the economic, social and health benefits of a practical approach can be realised.

But for some reason, there's no real questioning of this in New Zealand. I mean, I know why (it's NZ!). As an aviation site I would have expected a pretty robust push to get the planes back in the air but it's all just so defeatist and shoulder shruggy. Yes, the response to the first wave was appropriate. But we now know more and we're geared up on both sides of the ditch to deal with it. So, let's go.
 
DavidByrne
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Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:02 am

aerokiwi wrote:
Having now worked on the COVID response for the past 6 months in Australia (one of gagillions, I might add), I thought I'd check in on this thread and see what was happening after the stillbirth of last month's thread - the smallest ever? Strangled at birth when debate around the travel bubble emerged, it seems.

Exactly why there is not a travel bubble between NZ and Australia is pretty perplexing. If the NZ Government was remotely competent, they would have developed a robust track and trace system by now alongside establishing protocols for travel and outbreak management. But they haven't, seemingly, which is remarkably slack at both a political and bureaucratic level. I'm sure the excuses will prevail, though looking at the latest mini-cluster it appears that the government remains hopelessly inept it outbreak management.

While some seem to revel in the prospect of a doomsday or a permanent hermit kingdom, the fact is that the virus is circulating everywhere, likely at very low levels even in seemingly virus-free Australian states and in New Zealand. Sewerage testing is demonstrating that it's out there, but may just be carried by individuals who aren't high shedders of the virus or who are not particularly social. So the question becomes, how do you learn to live with it without sacrificing everything? And the answer is - competent and robust track and trace, combined with social distancing and hygiene practices.

Hand this off to your chief medical officer with the instruction to eliminate a virus and of course, closed borders will be their response. Politicians are using that to abrogate their duty to consider the whole picture. But, believe it or not, there is so much more to life (remember?). A travel bubble between NZ and Australia is an absolute no-brainer if the NZ Government is up to speed, and if there are still unresolved issues then NZ needs to pull finger. The airlines can get back to work, people can get back to work and the economic, social and health benefits of a practical approach can be realised.

But for some reason, there's no real questioning of this in New Zealand. I mean, I know why (it's NZ!). As an aviation site I would have expected a pretty robust push to get the planes back in the air but it's all just so defeatist and shoulder shruggy. Yes, the response to the first wave was appropriate. But we now know more and we're geared up on both sides of the ditch to deal with it. So, let's go.

As I interpret it, the NZ response to the proposed travel bubble with Australia has until recently been as much as anything to do with a lack of confidence in the ability of Australia to effectively manage fresh outbreaks and the prospect of new infections in NZ arising as a consequence. That opening too soon is a risk is illustrated by the resurgence of the virus in Europe, which has resulted in the reimposition of measures which had previously been relaxed. The reality is that you can't require the kind of social distancing and hygiene practices that are really required in a "possible Covid environment" long term - people start to ignore them and they become next to useless.

Airlines the world over have been urging the removal of restrictions on air travel ASAP, but as an observer it seems pretty self-interested and few give any hint that they are even conscious of the risks, painting a rosy picture that in my mind is a long way from the reality of the situation. Avgeeks on A-net and other fora likewise have been strong on removing restrictions, but mostly that's wishful thinking based on an ignorance of the real-world issues that governments must face. In NZ's case, even expanding the quarantine system has real issues: How many more of the nation's defence force personnel can we afford to tie up with Covid duties, and for how many more months (years?). How many more medical personnel can be spared from other duties to deal with quarantine issues? And while new arrivals now pay for their accommodation, the costs of medical and defence personnel have to be met by the government.

The situation with the Pacific Islands is also very delicate. It's great that Raro is really keen for visitors to come to the Cooks, but think for a moment also about the consequences if infections do arise. There are no test facilities in (most? all?) the island nations, meaning that samples will have to be sent back to NZ for analysis. Without daily flights, this potentially means delays for results, with the consequence that the virus could unknowingly be spread in the meantime. And we all know the impact of a virus getting into unprotected populations in the Pacific - the flu pandemic in 1919 was devastating to Samoa, as was even the measles epidemic more recently.

Having said that, the prospect of a travel bubble with Australia does now seem to be imminent. Should it have been implemented earlier? I don't know. But it's also apparent that the status quo measures do have the support of the majority of NZers, avgeeks excluded, and that's probably the most significant justification for them. It's easy to promote change and rail against the status quo, but when you're in the position of having to make these decisions, and have to take full responsibility for the outcome, it's not nearly so easy. To suggest as you have that the NZ government is "not remotely competent" and "defeatist" ignores the complexity of the real issues that have to be addressed. And I've heard absolutely no-one at all promote the idea of a "doomsday or permanent hermit kingdom" - where does this come from? And to suggest that NZers have "sacrificed everything" because of the present measures is just hyperbole, surely? Sure, the economy has taken a hit, but the general mood is one of cautious optimism, and, believe it or not, for most people outside the aviation sector life goes on pretty much as before.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
aerokiwi
Posts: 2815
Joined: Sun Jul 30, 2000 1:17 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Tue Nov 10, 2020 6:47 am

DavidByrne wrote:
aerokiwi wrote:
Having now worked on the COVID response for the past 6 months in Australia (one of gagillions, I might add), I thought I'd check in on this thread and see what was happening after the stillbirth of last month's thread - the smallest ever? Strangled at birth when debate around the travel bubble emerged, it seems.

Exactly why there is not a travel bubble between NZ and Australia is pretty perplexing. If the NZ Government was remotely competent, they would have developed a robust track and trace system by now alongside establishing protocols for travel and outbreak management. But they haven't, seemingly, which is remarkably slack at both a political and bureaucratic level. I'm sure the excuses will prevail, though looking at the latest mini-cluster it appears that the government remains hopelessly inept it outbreak management.

While some seem to revel in the prospect of a doomsday or a permanent hermit kingdom, the fact is that the virus is circulating everywhere, likely at very low levels even in seemingly virus-free Australian states and in New Zealand. Sewerage testing is demonstrating that it's out there, but may just be carried by individuals who aren't high shedders of the virus or who are not particularly social. So the question becomes, how do you learn to live with it without sacrificing everything? And the answer is - competent and robust track and trace, combined with social distancing and hygiene practices.

Hand this off to your chief medical officer with the instruction to eliminate a virus and of course, closed borders will be their response. Politicians are using that to abrogate their duty to consider the whole picture. But, believe it or not, there is so much more to life (remember?). A travel bubble between NZ and Australia is an absolute no-brainer if the NZ Government is up to speed, and if there are still unresolved issues then NZ needs to pull finger. The airlines can get back to work, people can get back to work and the economic, social and health benefits of a practical approach can be realised.

But for some reason, there's no real questioning of this in New Zealand. I mean, I know why (it's NZ!). As an aviation site I would have expected a pretty robust push to get the planes back in the air but it's all just so defeatist and shoulder shruggy. Yes, the response to the first wave was appropriate. But we now know more and we're geared up on both sides of the ditch to deal with it. So, let's go.

As I interpret it, the NZ response to the proposed travel bubble with Australia has until recently been as much as anything to do with a lack of confidence in the ability of Australia to effectively manage fresh outbreaks and the prospect of new infections in NZ arising as a consequence. That opening too soon is a risk is illustrated by the resurgence of the virus in Europe, which has resulted in the reimposition of measures which had previously been relaxed. The reality is that you can't require the kind of social distancing and hygiene practices that are really required in a "possible Covid environment" long term - people start to ignore them and they become next to useless.

Airlines the world over have been urging the removal of restrictions on air travel ASAP, but as an observer it seems pretty self-interested and few give any hint that they are even conscious of the risks, painting a rosy picture that in my mind is a long way from the reality of the situation. Avgeeks on A-net and other fora likewise have been strong on removing restrictions, but mostly that's wishful thinking based on an ignorance of the real-world issues that governments must face. In NZ's case, even expanding the quarantine system has real issues: How many more of the nation's defence force personnel can we afford to tie up with Covid duties, and for how many more months (years?). How many more medical personnel can be spared from other duties to deal with quarantine issues? And while new arrivals now pay for their accommodation, the costs of medical and defence personnel have to be met by the government.

The situation with the Pacific Islands is also very delicate. It's great that Raro is really keen for visitors to come to the Cooks, but think for a moment also about the consequences if infections do arise. There are no test facilities in (most? all?) the island nations, meaning that samples will have to be sent back to NZ for analysis. Without daily flights, this potentially means delays for results, with the consequence that the virus could unknowingly be spread in the meantime. And we all know the impact of a virus getting into unprotected populations in the Pacific - the flu pandemic in 1919 was devastating to Samoa, as was even the measles epidemic more recently.

Having said that, the prospect of a travel bubble with Australia does now seem to be imminent. Should it have been implemented earlier? I don't know. But it's also apparent that the status quo measures do have the support of the majority of NZers, avgeeks excluded, and that's probably the most significant justification for them. It's easy to promote change and rail against the status quo, but when you're in the position of having to make these decisions, and have to take full responsibility for the outcome, it's not nearly so easy. To suggest as you have that the NZ government is "not remotely competent" and "defeatist" ignores the complexity of the real issues that have to be addressed. And I've heard absolutely no-one at all promote the idea of a "doomsday or permanent hermit kingdom" - where does this come from? And to suggest that NZers have "sacrificed everything" because of the present measures is just hyperbole, surely? Sure, the economy has taken a hit, but the general mood is one of cautious optimism, and, believe it or not, for most people outside the aviation sector life goes on pretty much as before.


The almost longing for borders to remain closed until mid-2021 or GASP, 2022. It's bizarre. And if you think it's reasonable and prudent, it's not. Not everyone can afford $3,000 and cope with 2 weeks in isolation just to return home or reunite with family. A hermit kingdom is one where a population, cowered by fear and/or inept/lazy government, is prevented from engaging with the world, least of all the perfectly reasonable first step of low-risk, highly similar countries with considerable social connections and near-zero cases, robust monitoring systems and strong government and institutions.

If the New Zealand government is still not prepared for a travel bubble with Australia, if there really are these ongoing uncertainties etc as purported by the PM and ministers, then that's pretty atrocious. ``Australia hasn't settled on what "hot spot" is yet the internal borders are opening up. Why? Because of confidence in the systems in place and the resourcing of healthcare to manage flareups.

Dropping teasing hints that maybe in time for Christmas, maybe not... but maybe, is amateur hour. Airlines need time to ramp up. Passengers need time to make arrangements. Exporters and importers need to know what capacity is available and the likely cost. The shield of government splurge and massive debt is masking the true impact. But there's a price to pay, most immediately by the aviation, tourism, exporting and international education sectors. Total service sector exports, now massively reduced, accounted for about $20 billion in revenue in 2018. For people in those sectors, yeah it is sacrificing everything. The reckoning will come but every day of dragging it out will only add to the pain.
 
Toenga
Posts: 185
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:28 am

NZ has taken a conservative approach, along with all of the Australian State Governments,that have stood us all incredibly well.
But above this State driven response the Australian Premier has not been helpful continually advocating for a business first, open the borders and trust me, continually undermining the efforts of those state governors who have got Australia into the very enviable position it is today.
NZ and the Australian States have ended up pursuing the same strategy but under differing names. In NZ it is called "elimination" .
But in Australia, the same strategy, as adopted very successfully by the various states and territories has had to be called "aggressive suppression", apparently to appease Scott Morrison, who had made an initial stand against "elimination" in favour of a much softer "suppression" otherwise known as the ill fated "flatten the curve" but which the State Premiers added the considerable aggression.
NZ only wants agreement on such basics as definition of "hotspot" and pre defined measures of containment of any such hotspots, and perhaps details of agreed cross border structured contact tracing mechanisms before it can acquiesce.
"Trust us we know what we are doing and we can open next week", simply does not suffice especially given that the Australian Federal government for a time joined Clive Palmer's ill advised, and ultimately unsuccessful, legal bid to overturn the Western Australian State Government covid closure of their state border. This and his aggressive opposition to those other state border closures, that eventually were key to Australia containing it's second outbreaks have undermined both his credibility and his influence on this side of the Tasman.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... man-bubble.
A transtasman border is achievable, but to be safe to our economies and peoples, it needs sound agreed structures.
 
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zkojq
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:06 pm

IMO a big issue to be dealt with prior to opening the bubble with Australia is the accommodation requirements for if you have to put a sudden stop to it and have a temporary quarantine for returning Kiwis. In the event of a hypothetical outbreak in Oz, if TransTasman traffic goes back to ~10,000 pax a day then suddenly you'd need to find a lot of hotel rooms if you need to enforce mandatory isolation for even just a few days.

We know from the past that trusting people to self isolate depends a lot on the trustworthiness of the people in question and cannot be relied on.

aerokiwi wrote:
A hermit kingdom is one where a population, cowered by fear and/or inept/lazy government, is prevented from engaging with the world, least of all the perfectly reasonable first step of low-risk, highly similar countries with considerable social connections and near-zero cases, robust monitoring systems and strong government and institutions.


So in the last NZ Aviation thread the government was compared to East Germany (GDR) for the very successful Elimination Strategy, this thread the implication seems to be North Korea? What's it going to be for December - Saudi Arabia? Idi Armin era Uganda? Junta era Argentina? Or is someone going to go full FOX News and label the quarantine requirement "Corona Camps" and imply something far more sinister? Once again, it seems that some people need a good hard dose of reality.

Toenga wrote:
NZ has taken a conservative approach, along with all of the Australian State Governments,that have stood us all incredibly well.

:checkmark:

Toenga wrote:
NZ and the Australian States have ended up pursuing the same strategy but under differing names. In NZ it is called "elimination" .
But in Australia, the same strategy, as adopted very successfully by the various states and territories has had to be called "aggressive suppression", apparently to appease Scott Morrison, who had made an initial stand against "elimination" in favour of a much softer "suppression" otherwise known as the ill fated "flatten the curve" but which the State Premiers added the considerable aggression.


The political wrangling over the name of the strategy is something I'll never quite be able to understand the purpose of. :lol:

Toenga wrote:
A transtasman border is achievable, but to be safe to our economies and peoples, it needs sound agreed structures.


:checkmark:
First to fly the 787-9
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Tue Nov 10, 2020 9:34 pm

aerokiwi wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
NZ516 wrote:

Recent news stories have it that no Tasman flights till next year. The challenge is always to get a airline interested as most think Hobart to NZ is not viable.
But its a safe destination to open up now in this new world we are all living in. I am really keen to visit Tassie the demand will come if tickets are priced reasonably




from:
https://www.travelweekly.com.au/article ... this-year/


The thing with WHEN a Trans Tasman bubble will happen is no one actually knows. Not even the PM I don't believe. Although her team will be able to make the most informed and educated prediction should the choose to discuss it. Which I'm sure they have BUT they have never made any clear statement on it. I think the closest we got was after lockdown here when the PM made a comment that 'September' seemed right. Was that perhaps around early May? But firstly, that's their opinion. The Aussies will then hold their own.

So while some will rule out this year, it's all just predictions or we could use other terms such as a guesses or even opinions.

Having said that, I don't disagree and my prediction/opinion/guess is it won't be this year. When we came into level 1 it seemed keeping it out at the border was very doable. However it's now potentially clear that while border controls work the majority of the time it's still very high risk and that's without any international movement and additionally state by state international travel can be extensively abused and hard to Police.

Based on that I think there's a LOT for both sides to iron our before any BUBBLE will be formed. It will happen but I think there needs to be a lot more desire from both sides to get everyone round the table to work out these processes.

That'll take us into Autumn next year. That's my guess but I'm ever hopefully for a miracle

If I want to be an optimist; with agreed world class contact tracing, strong borders no other bubbles and 28 days zero community transmission outside of expected cases (i.e. family transmission) we could see something post the near year.

I've also heard some executives in the tourism/travel industry suggest July/August 2021 for a Bubble?!?!

For the record, there are a number of interesting options out there in addition to HBA...


Having now worked on the COVID response for the past 6 months in Australia (one of gagillions, I might add), I thought I'd check in on this thread and see what was happening after the stillbirth of last month's thread - the smallest ever? Strangled at birth when debate around the travel bubble emerged, it seems.

Exactly why there is not a travel bubble between NZ and Australia is pretty perplexing. If the NZ Government was remotely competent, they would have developed a robust track and trace system by now alongside establishing protocols for travel and outbreak management. But they haven't, seemingly, which is remarkably slack at both a political and bureaucratic level. I'm sure the excuses will prevail, though looking at the latest mini-cluster it appears that the government remains hopelessly inept it outbreak management.

While some seem to revel in the prospect of a doomsday or a permanent hermit kingdom, the fact is that the virus is circulating everywhere, likely at very low levels even in seemingly virus-free Australian states and in New Zealand. Sewerage testing is demonstrating that it's out there, but may just be carried by individuals who aren't high shedders of the virus or who are not particularly social. So the question becomes, how do you learn to live with it without sacrificing everything? And the answer is - competent and robust track and trace, combined with social distancing and hygiene practices.

Hand this off to your chief medical officer with the instruction to eliminate a virus and of course, closed borders will be their response. Politicians are using that to abrogate their duty to consider the whole picture. But, believe it or not, there is so much more to life (remember?). A travel bubble between NZ and Australia is an absolute no-brainer if the NZ Government is up to speed, and if there are still unresolved issues then NZ needs to pull finger. The airlines can get back to work, people can get back to work and the economic, social and health benefits of a practical approach can be realised.

But for some reason, there's no real questioning of this in New Zealand. I mean, I know why (it's NZ!). As an aviation site I would have expected a pretty robust push to get the planes back in the air but it's all just so defeatist and shoulder shruggy. Yes, the response to the first wave was appropriate. But we now know more and we're geared up on both sides of the ditch to deal with it. So, let's go.


Interesting first paragraph. There's been virtually nothing happening in our aviation industry over the last month therefore not much to talk about. To move out of these stagnant waters we're relying on a travel buddle short term or secondly a vaccine to return the world to 'normal'.

There's a minefield of issues and reasons why a bubble hasn't happened. Victoria's recent outbreak topping the leaderboard. But there's a complex matrix of issues that follow.

The Travel Bubble was tabled post the first lock down in April/May - when it seemed both countries were coming out the other side of the initial wave of infections and many believed it would be as simple and shutting the border and we'll all live under some safe magical virus proof dome.

We've seen since then the tip of the iceberg in complexities around keeping the virus out of the country and subsequently the community and it's now a fine balancing act between lockdowns and rapid contact tracing and isolation with a population that's day to day actives are struggling to keep COVID protocols in the forefront of their minds and actions (using tracer app etc).

Our success in keeping COVID out is also our Achilles Heel with our aviation response, we've spent too much, committed too much in keeping the virus out that it's now safer, cheaper and more effective to continue down this path. To which I personally agree with.

A Bubble could and should be in place now with Australia or at least ready to go in December, Australia are seemingly on a fast track to a position equal to that of NZ and while VIC was in lockdown the process should have been worked out to open the bubble as soon as safe and practicable. However I question if enough work has been done to hit the go button as soon as we could.

To highlight this, where did we get to with the Cook Islands or Samoa - We can't even get those nationals in to pick fruit?

If we move on for a few moments and if we read the updates on the Pfizer vaccine yesterday. We could all throw our hands in the air, put "travel bubble" in the library of 2020 along with other terms such as social distancing, contact tracing and self isolation.

All going well, it's anticipated to get approval early December. Be in production off shore mid December and we could potentially see approval and distribution here within the first couple of months in 2021.

There's also the Oxford vaccine which is equally as promising and production in Australia commencing this week.

In summary and in reflection.. a travel bubble was possible and should have been done, I don't think there wasn't enough benefit to it given the "risk" to our risk adverse government, It's dragged on so long we're now closing in faster on a vaccine than a bubble.

Perhaps they'll save face and once a vaccine is available a bubble will be used as a controlled way of reopening the border.

I anticipate another slow month, maybe two before we can start getting excited about things happening once again.
 
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moo
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:20 pm

aerokiwi wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
aerokiwi wrote:
Having now worked on the COVID response for the past 6 months in Australia (one of gagillions, I might add), I thought I'd check in on this thread and see what was happening after the stillbirth of last month's thread - the smallest ever? Strangled at birth when debate around the travel bubble emerged, it seems.

Exactly why there is not a travel bubble between NZ and Australia is pretty perplexing. If the NZ Government was remotely competent, they would have developed a robust track and trace system by now alongside establishing protocols for travel and outbreak management. But they haven't, seemingly, which is remarkably slack at both a political and bureaucratic level. I'm sure the excuses will prevail, though looking at the latest mini-cluster it appears that the government remains hopelessly inept it outbreak management.

While some seem to revel in the prospect of a doomsday or a permanent hermit kingdom, the fact is that the virus is circulating everywhere, likely at very low levels even in seemingly virus-free Australian states and in New Zealand. Sewerage testing is demonstrating that it's out there, but may just be carried by individuals who aren't high shedders of the virus or who are not particularly social. So the question becomes, how do you learn to live with it without sacrificing everything? And the answer is - competent and robust track and trace, combined with social distancing and hygiene practices.

Hand this off to your chief medical officer with the instruction to eliminate a virus and of course, closed borders will be their response. Politicians are using that to abrogate their duty to consider the whole picture. But, believe it or not, there is so much more to life (remember?). A travel bubble between NZ and Australia is an absolute no-brainer if the NZ Government is up to speed, and if there are still unresolved issues then NZ needs to pull finger. The airlines can get back to work, people can get back to work and the economic, social and health benefits of a practical approach can be realised.

But for some reason, there's no real questioning of this in New Zealand. I mean, I know why (it's NZ!). As an aviation site I would have expected a pretty robust push to get the planes back in the air but it's all just so defeatist and shoulder shruggy. Yes, the response to the first wave was appropriate. But we now know more and we're geared up on both sides of the ditch to deal with it. So, let's go.

As I interpret it, the NZ response to the proposed travel bubble with Australia has until recently been as much as anything to do with a lack of confidence in the ability of Australia to effectively manage fresh outbreaks and the prospect of new infections in NZ arising as a consequence. That opening too soon is a risk is illustrated by the resurgence of the virus in Europe, which has resulted in the reimposition of measures which had previously been relaxed. The reality is that you can't require the kind of social distancing and hygiene practices that are really required in a "possible Covid environment" long term - people start to ignore them and they become next to useless.

Airlines the world over have been urging the removal of restrictions on air travel ASAP, but as an observer it seems pretty self-interested and few give any hint that they are even conscious of the risks, painting a rosy picture that in my mind is a long way from the reality of the situation. Avgeeks on A-net and other fora likewise have been strong on removing restrictions, but mostly that's wishful thinking based on an ignorance of the real-world issues that governments must face. In NZ's case, even expanding the quarantine system has real issues: How many more of the nation's defence force personnel can we afford to tie up with Covid duties, and for how many more months (years?). How many more medical personnel can be spared from other duties to deal with quarantine issues? And while new arrivals now pay for their accommodation, the costs of medical and defence personnel have to be met by the government.

The situation with the Pacific Islands is also very delicate. It's great that Raro is really keen for visitors to come to the Cooks, but think for a moment also about the consequences if infections do arise. There are no test facilities in (most? all?) the island nations, meaning that samples will have to be sent back to NZ for analysis. Without daily flights, this potentially means delays for results, with the consequence that the virus could unknowingly be spread in the meantime. And we all know the impact of a virus getting into unprotected populations in the Pacific - the flu pandemic in 1919 was devastating to Samoa, as was even the measles epidemic more recently.

Having said that, the prospect of a travel bubble with Australia does now seem to be imminent. Should it have been implemented earlier? I don't know. But it's also apparent that the status quo measures do have the support of the majority of NZers, avgeeks excluded, and that's probably the most significant justification for them. It's easy to promote change and rail against the status quo, but when you're in the position of having to make these decisions, and have to take full responsibility for the outcome, it's not nearly so easy. To suggest as you have that the NZ government is "not remotely competent" and "defeatist" ignores the complexity of the real issues that have to be addressed. And I've heard absolutely no-one at all promote the idea of a "doomsday or permanent hermit kingdom" - where does this come from? And to suggest that NZers have "sacrificed everything" because of the present measures is just hyperbole, surely? Sure, the economy has taken a hit, but the general mood is one of cautious optimism, and, believe it or not, for most people outside the aviation sector life goes on pretty much as before.


The almost longing for borders to remain closed until mid-2021 or GASP, 2022. It's bizarre. And if you think it's reasonable and prudent, it's not. Not everyone can afford $3,000 and cope with 2 weeks in isolation just to return home or reunite with family. A hermit kingdom is one where a population, cowered by fear and/or inept/lazy government, is prevented from engaging with the world, least of all the perfectly reasonable first step of low-risk, highly similar countries with considerable social connections and near-zero cases, robust monitoring systems and strong government and institutions.

If the New Zealand government is still not prepared for a travel bubble with Australia, if there really are these ongoing uncertainties etc as purported by the PM and ministers, then that's pretty atrocious. ``Australia hasn't settled on what "hot spot" is yet the internal borders are opening up. Why? Because of confidence in the systems in place and the resourcing of healthcare to manage flareups.

Dropping teasing hints that maybe in time for Christmas, maybe not... but maybe, is amateur hour. Airlines need time to ramp up. Passengers need time to make arrangements. Exporters and importers need to know what capacity is available and the likely cost. The shield of government splurge and massive debt is masking the true impact. But there's a price to pay, most immediately by the aviation, tourism, exporting and international education sectors. Total service sector exports, now massively reduced, accounted for about $20 billion in revenue in 2018. For people in those sectors, yeah it is sacrificing everything. The reckoning will come but every day of dragging it out will only add to the pain.


There is no where in the world I'd rather live right now than New Zealand, I am utterly thankful that this is where I ended up for 2020 - to hell with the airlines, exporters/importers (who don't really seem to have been affected - if I can have a container shipped from the UK to NZ in this climate, an importer can do the same) and holiday makers, they can wait. So can Australia.

A company I am intimately familiar with, THL, has pivoted well in the tourism industry and is nicely on track to post another decent profit, so tourism isn't as dire as people like to make out - Kiwis are rediscovering their own country, plus theres still a substantial demographic here who aren't native and are taking the time to travel NZ.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:22 pm

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-10/ ... a/12868774

I wonder how our fearful government will weigh in these developments with any potential Aussie bubble. Yes, Australia's position here isn't new but with our reluctance to commit to anything I wouldn't blame Australia if they moved on and opened a more relaxed Asian bubble(s).

Essentially leaving us to accept "as is" if we later come to the table and want to create a one. After all, it's been just under 2 months where we can go to some states there and we've not budged an inch.

Like I said yesterday, I'm increasingly of the opinion lets shelve the Australia bubble concept and focus on a Pacific one.

Let's see where we're at in the New Year with the Vaccine and start asking some questions around how and when a controlled reopening of border can be done at key points next year.

I wouldn't put money on it yet, but I increasingly optimistic that by Easter we should be in much better shape for short-haul travel.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:00 pm

NZ6 wrote:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-10/australia-in-talks-to-expand-travel-bubble-to-some-parts-of-asia/12868774

I wonder how our fearful government will weigh in these developments with any potential Aussie bubble. Yes, Australia's position here isn't new but with our reluctance to commit to anything I wouldn't blame Australia if they moved on and opened a more relaxed Asian bubble(s).

Essentially leaving us to accept "as is" if we later come to the table and want to create a one. After all, it's been just under 2 months where we can go to some states there and we've not budged an inch.

Like I said yesterday, I'm increasingly of the opinion lets shelve the Australia bubble concept and focus on a Pacific one.

Let's see where we're at in the New Year with the Vaccine and start asking some questions around how and when a controlled reopening of border can be done at key points next year.

I wouldn't put money on it yet, but I increasingly optimistic that by Easter we should be in much better shape for short-haul travel.


I feel like Australia is going to get over waiting for New Zealand, and will just simply move on and come to agreements with other counties as an priority.

Surely by now New Zealand could of reduced the managed isolation period to 7 days for people traveling from NSW/VIC. Then for WA,TAS,QLF,SA an 7 day self isolation period at home would be enough.

There is risk of community transmission in most Australian states expect for VIC/NSW currently, your more likely to catch COVID in New Zealand from an managed isolation worker.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:07 pm

moo wrote:
A company I am intimately familiar with, THL, has pivoted well in the tourism industry and is nicely on track to post another decent profit, so tourism isn't as dire as people like to make out - Kiwis are rediscovering their own country, plus theres still a substantial demographic here who aren't native and are taking the time to travel NZ.


Hmmmm, THL's reducing it's fleet size by about a 3rd and cut it's pre COVID workforce by about 30% so I'd say they're effected... They've adapted very very well though.

Irrespective, I wouldn't suggest tourism isn't as dire as people make out. I'd say it's potentially worse. I was in the South Island over winter, some places were ghost towns. Tourist attractions shut or on severely reduced hours, hotels/motels on very low occupancy or even closed in some cases. Restaurants/Cafes closed or again on reduced hours. All this is unemployment for locals or less hours which equals less wages. Anecdotally, what Kiwis are spending is significantly less than the international tourist.

We could look at outbound travel, reduction in workforce by over 50% I believe.

I'm not sure how THL did it to be honest. While they're international, the majority of their business is based here. Their revenue FY19 was $423m and FY20 $401m so only down 5%. They must have generated a truck load of revenue from their "Get Moving' campaign as their interim results show a drop in revenue ending December too (pre COVID) so we can't say this has been held up by the first half of the year. They may have have included vehicle sales into their "revenue" I'm not sure. Their profit is down 30% though.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:30 pm

NZ6 wrote:
moo wrote:
A company I am intimately familiar with, THL, has pivoted well in the tourism industry and is nicely on track to post another decent profit, so tourism isn't as dire as people like to make out - Kiwis are rediscovering their own country, plus theres still a substantial demographic here who aren't native and are taking the time to travel NZ.


Hmmmm, THL's reducing it's fleet size by about a 3rd and cut it's pre COVID workforce by about 30% so I'd say they're effected... They've adapted very very well though.

Irrespective, I wouldn't suggest tourism isn't as dire as people make out. I'd say it's potentially worse. I was in the South Island over winter, some places were ghost towns. Tourist attractions shut or on severely reduced hours, hotels/motels on very low occupancy or even closed in some cases. Restaurants/Cafes closed or again on reduced hours. All this is unemployment for locals or less hours which equals less wages. Anecdotally, what Kiwis are spending is significantly less than the international tourist.

We could look at outbound travel, reduction in workforce by over 50% I believe.

I'm not sure how THL did it to be honest. While they're international, the majority of their business is based here. Their revenue FY19 was $423m and FY20 $401m so only down 5%. They must have generated a truck load of revenue from their "Get Moving' campaign as their interim results show a drop in revenue ending December too (pre COVID) so we can't say this has been held up by the first half of the year. They may have have included vehicle sales into their "revenue" I'm not sure. Their profit is down 30% though.


Actually, just a thought as this intrigued me.

Over our winter months, the international (European) traveler numbers drop dramatically. These months align with the impacted COVID months.

I do wonder if during this time, THL's vehicle occupancy would typically be much lower than peak months. But when you mix together the 'Get Moving' campaign and whole bunch of Kiwi travelers who are stuck on-shore, you end up with a very high occupancy (100% in some cases it seems*). Has this combination generated comparable income to a typical year?

I would seriously question the sustainability of such an approach though. How many times would kiwis will be willing to go back and do the same thing? How many more million kilometers are being added to the fleet during this time?

You could argue that it doesn't matter as the income revenue is the same, but if you're needing to turn over your fleet a year or two sooner that's going to cost you in the long term.

Please don't take this as me knocking THL. They're a fantastic iconic company. I've used them, I would recommend them and I'm not attacking them. Like I said, their results surprised / interested me.

I know it's not aviation related, but things are quiet and this side topic is a result of no aviation.
 
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moo
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:48 pm

NZ6 wrote:

I do wonder if during this time, THL's vehicle occupancy would typically be much lower than peak months. But when you mix together the 'Get Moving' campaign and whole bunch of Kiwi travelers who are stuck on-shore, you end up with a very high occupancy (100% in some cases it seems*). Has this combination generated comparable income to a typical year?


I'm not sure how much I can say realistically without giving away insider knowledge, but the first week of "Get Moving" was THLs best week ever in terms of fleet utilisation, and subsequent utilisation has remained high ever since - this has translated into decent revenue.

I can't comment on the fleet and staff reductions - I want to, but I cant because that would step me over the line.

THL is in fine shape for the future though, with high to full utilization over the next NZ summer period.
 
Toenga
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:57 pm

zkncj wrote:

I feel like Australia is going to get over waiting for New Zealand, and will just simply move on and come to agreements with other counties as an priority.

Surely by now New Zealand could of reduced the managed isolation period to 7 days for people traveling from NSW/VIC. Then for WA,TAS,QLF,SA an 7 day self isolation period at home would be enough.

There is risk of community transmission in most Australian states expect for VIC/NSW currently, your more likely to catch COVID in New Zealand from an managed isolation worker.


I think there is still an issue with Scott Morrison's enthusiasm for selling reopening borders, initially just within Australia, then trans Tasman, and now more widely, but removing himself from the detail, and responsibilities, of ensuring it can be accomplished safely.

He had left all of this up to his State Premiers, and certainly was not backward in criticising failures and shortcomings there, whilst ignoring the significant federal failures around keeping aged care facilities safe. There is the continuing ineffectiveness of the federal tracking application. These failures were highlighted in the bungled opening up of quarantine free travel from NZ to Sydney, with travellers then proceeding on to other states, with federal blessing but contrary to the recipient state's authorisation. This debacle meant that there was not even a system in place to ensure the recipient states had timely access to the contact details recorded on the passengers international arrival cards.

Opening bubbles up to other countries still needs an agreed process between all the countries and states within any existing bubble as the bubble perimeter is enlarged. As yet there is not even an agreed definition of "hot spot" except the NSW definition appears to be too liberal for NZ (and probably for most other Australian States) There appears to be no functional contact tracking mechanism for international, and even interstate travellers, and no work being done to get one. There appears no contingency planning how to repatriate people home away from any outbreak location.

The disease outbreak itself now in Australasia is probably at a state that a transtasman bubble can be opened up safely.
It just requires agreed contingency measures to rapidly contain and minimise the damage from inevitable bubble breaches.
Agreement of what is required should achievable and should be the priority now, not just some more marketing of the benifits of open borders. Any failure of covid infection control has the potential to outweigh any benefits many times over.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:07 pm

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/cathay-pacific-returns-to-new-zealand-with-boeing-777-flights-starting-november-27/KD2O32NGVYJHLEDMHOQTBIOKAQ/

CX resumes AKL twice weekly with an 77W from 27th Nov, far cry from summer last year which was 14x weekly.
 
wstakl
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:08 pm

Great to hear CX returning twice weekly from NOV27. It's good to see a proactive approach in regards to living with Covid, unlike our government who insist on this 'Fortress New Zealand' mentality.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:32 pm

moo wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

I do wonder if during this time, THL's vehicle occupancy would typically be much lower than peak months. But when you mix together the 'Get Moving' campaign and whole bunch of Kiwi travelers who are stuck on-shore, you end up with a very high occupancy (100% in some cases it seems*). Has this combination generated comparable income to a typical year?


I'm not sure how much I can say realistically without giving away insider knowledge, but the first week of "Get Moving" was THLs best week ever in terms of fleet utilisation, and subsequent utilisation has remained high ever since - this has translated into decent revenue.

I can't comment on the fleet and staff reductions - I want to, but I cant because that would step me over the line.

THL is in fine shape for the future though, with high to full utilization over the next NZ summer period.


Oh you clearly work for them! A great company to work for I'm sure.

All I can say is good on THL for adapting to a crisis like this and making it work for them.

I have family who used the Get Moving campaign and we all agreed that THL is the unsung hero for local tourism. They've enabled as well as encouraged Kiwis to see our country and more importantly those places outside the main centers like ZQN.

Having said that, I think there's a cost which isn't shown on their books yet and that's the revenue per mile and relationship with the vehicle.

I'm no expert but let's assume people do 400km a day in them and Mauri campers stay until they've done 100,000km then go on to be Britz campers. (I know that's very likely wrong but the basics should still apply).

That's 250 rental days.

250 x $50 (Get Moving Rate) = $12,500
250 x $300 (Normal Rate) = $75,000

More importantly. Those 250 days have been crewed up during COVID. While the FY20 results show equal revenue to previous years, thanks to the 100% occupancy. The fleet has aged as a result. Will the Mauri & Britz product be compromised for the next few years or will THL have to cycle in new campers sooner?

I know you can't share and once again I'm not bagging them. Just highlighting where I think some hidden troubles sit and suggesting tourism is still hard hit with these results included.
 
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moo
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:02 am

NZ6 wrote:

Oh you clearly work for them! A great company to work for I'm sure.



Close but no cigar :D

All I can say is good on THL for adapting to a crisis like this and making it work for them.

I have family who used the Get Moving campaign and we all agreed that THL is the unsung hero for local tourism. They've enabled as well as encouraged Kiwis to see our country and more importantly those places outside the main centers like ZQN.

Having said that, I think there's a cost which isn't shown on their books yet and that's the revenue per mile and relationship with the vehicle.

I'm no expert but let's assume people do 400km a day in them and Mauri campers stay until they've done 100,000km then go on to be Britz campers. (I know that's very likely wrong but the basics should still apply).

That's 250 rental days.

250 x $50 (Get Moving Rate) = $12,500
250 x $300 (Normal Rate) = $75,000

More importantly. Those 250 days have been crewed up during COVID. While the FY20 results show equal revenue to previous years, thanks to the 100% occupancy. The fleet has aged as a result. Will the Mauri & Britz product be compromised for the next few years or will THL have to cycle in new campers sooner?


Part of the draw of the Maui brand is that it guarantees vans of only a certain maximum age (not mileage), so those vehicles are going to move on anyway due to established fleet renewal - that is still a core part of that brand. THL is adjusting a partnership with Thor Industries (the major US campervan manufacturer and owner of brands like Airstream etc) in the US at the moment, but theres still some irons in the fire there regarding fleet renewal...

THL does have the added downside that their premier customer service centre in Auckland burned down recently, and thats not due to be properly replaced with a permanent home for the next couple of years.
 
zkncj
Posts: 4166
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Thu Nov 12, 2020 2:52 am

wstakl wrote:
Great to hear CX returning twice weekly from NOV27. It's good to see a proactive approach in regards to living with Covid, unlike our government who insist on this 'Fortress New Zealand' mentality.


Just have to wonder where CX is finding passengers for these flights? Along with NZ operating HKG 2x weekly.

Does it get to the point that more people start leaving the fortress, than arriving into the fortress?

MIQ is pretty much fully booked over the summer period, so can’t expect New Zealand to be letting any more people in.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7804
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:06 am

zkncj wrote:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/cathay-pacific-returns-to-new-zealand-with-boeing-777-flights-starting-november-27/KD2O32NGVYJHLEDMHOQTBIOKAQ/

CX resumes AKL twice weekly with an 77W from 27th Nov, far cry from summer last year which was 14x weekly.


It mentions freight space aswell, CX have been running several 77W freight services weekly already.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1803
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:30 pm

moo wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

Oh you clearly work for them! A great company to work for I'm sure.



Close but no cigar :D

All I can say is good on THL for adapting to a crisis like this and making it work for them.

I have family who used the Get Moving campaign and we all agreed that THL is the unsung hero for local tourism. They've enabled as well as encouraged Kiwis to see our country and more importantly those places outside the main centers like ZQN.

Having said that, I think there's a cost which isn't shown on their books yet and that's the revenue per mile and relationship with the vehicle.

I'm no expert but let's assume people do 400km a day in them and Mauri campers stay until they've done 100,000km then go on to be Britz campers. (I know that's very likely wrong but the basics should still apply).

That's 250 rental days.

250 x $50 (Get Moving Rate) = $12,500
250 x $300 (Normal Rate) = $75,000

More importantly. Those 250 days have been crewed up during COVID. While the FY20 results show equal revenue to previous years, thanks to the 100% occupancy. The fleet has aged as a result. Will the Mauri & Britz product be compromised for the next few years or will THL have to cycle in new campers sooner?


Part of the draw of the Maui brand is that it guarantees vans of only a certain maximum age (not mileage), so those vehicles are going to move on anyway due to established fleet renewal - that is still a core part of that brand. THL is adjusting a partnership with Thor Industries (the major US campervan manufacturer and owner of brands like Airstream etc) in the US at the moment, but theres still some irons in the fire there regarding fleet renewal...

THL does have the added downside that their premier customer service centre in Auckland burned down recently, and thats not due to be properly replaced with a permanent home for the next couple of years.


Interesting, I'm still suspicious of extra hidden expenses long term.

I'm not expert on this one though. Either way, good on THL for making it work and fingers crossed it's a short term issue which 'll see them through.
 
User avatar
ZKNCL
Posts: 245
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 1:00 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sun Nov 15, 2020 6:34 am

Looks like 77Es OKA, OKC, OKE, and OKF are permanently gone according to AirFleets (first 3) and Skyliner.de (OKF)
 
mrkerr7474
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed Dec 23, 2009 7:55 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:44 am

Was wondering if anyone had any ideas of what's going on in the airspace over the New Plymouth and even up to Hamilton area?

Aircraft leaving AKL seem to be tracking well over the water above the Tasman Sea and going to AKL they are tracking almost in the middle of the North Island. Quite interesting to see!
 
zkncj
Posts: 4166
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sun Nov 15, 2020 8:00 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
Was wondering if anyone had any ideas of what's going on in the airspace over the New Plymouth and even up to Hamilton area?

Aircraft leaving AKL seem to be tracking well over the water above the Tasman Sea and going to AKL they are tracking almost in the middle of the North Island. Quite interesting to see!


Could be weather related? Although I had a couple of domestic flights recently that have gone out into the Tasman.

Maybe making the most of the reduce air traffic, and best routing based on weather and proformance.
 
User avatar
SelandiaBaru
Posts: 109
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2013 2:39 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sun Nov 15, 2020 8:06 am

Raglan Sector unavailable. Likely due to Airways staffing issues. Aircraft re-routed around the airspace.
 
mrkerr7474
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed Dec 23, 2009 7:55 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sun Nov 15, 2020 8:16 am

SelandiaBaru wrote:
Raglan Sector unavailable. Likely due to Airways staffing issues. Aircraft re-routed around the airspace.


That's interesting to note its likely because of that. How did / do you find out a specific sector was unavailable?
 
Unclekoru
Posts: 334
Joined: Fri Oct 16, 2009 3:00 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sun Nov 15, 2020 8:58 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
SelandiaBaru wrote:
Raglan Sector unavailable. Likely due to Airways staffing issues. Aircraft re-routed around the airspace.


That's interesting to note its likely because of that. How did / do you find out a specific sector was unavailable?


NOTAMs. Ongoing “resourcing issue”.
It sounds like english, but I can't understand a word you're saying
 
bonzolab
Posts: 53
Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2012 9:38 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sun Nov 15, 2020 11:34 pm

Doesn't make a lot of sense to send an ATR/Dash aircraft from NZNP to NZAA via the central plateau and bay of plenty area all for the sakes of remaining inside controlled airspace, yet at the same time said aircraft can operate into a number of ports in uncontrolled airspace. 30 mins NP-AA becomes close to 60mins. Odd policy.
 
User avatar
SelandiaBaru
Posts: 109
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2013 2:39 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Mon Nov 16, 2020 4:51 am

bonzolab wrote:
Doesn't make a lot of sense to send an ATR/Dash aircraft from NZNP to NZAA via the central plateau and bay of plenty area all for the sakes of remaining inside controlled airspace, yet at the same time said aircraft can operate into a number of ports in uncontrolled airspace. 30 mins NP-AA becomes close to 60mins. Odd policy.


We tend not to, excuse the pun, operate on the fly and everything is predicated on operating under certain levels of service. While it can be done, it doesn't necessarily mean it is safe and the Raglan sector would not be able to safely absorb the amount of uncontrolled traffic that it does when under control. Operating into uncontrolled ports with defined procedures is quite different to operating in upper airspace uncontrolled.
 
ZKSUJ
Posts: 6885
Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 5:15 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:10 am

bonzolab wrote:
Doesn't make a lot of sense to send an ATR/Dash aircraft from NZNP to NZAA via the central plateau and bay of plenty area all for the sakes of remaining inside controlled airspace, yet at the same time said aircraft can operate into a number of ports in uncontrolled airspace. 30 mins NP-AA becomes close to 60mins. Odd policy.


Q300 fights TUO-AKL have been flown via TRG before for that reason. An hour flight time. NPL is the same as is PMR, happens. Or it used to anyway
 
PA515
Posts: 1652
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Mon Nov 16, 2020 11:30 am

Former Air NZ ATR 72-500 ZK-MCC (msn 714) had a 72 min CHC-CHC test flight on 12 Nov. It's listed on myairtrade.com for USD4.95M.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/zk-mcc

PA515
 
NZ516
Posts: 598
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Tue Nov 17, 2020 7:24 am

Come fly with me, a look at New Zealand's smaller airlines: Air Chathams

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/123 ... f00leQLkIY

A good historical feature on Air Chathams they have certainly come a long way. Also further down the story their future plans involve adding two new routes linking regional NZ to Auckland. Most likely Masterton with the airport upgrade underway and another mystery one any ideas have a guess. My pick it could be Te Anau as they have served the town in the past with charter flying:

What are your future plans?
We’ll continue to operate our mainland and Chatham Islands routes, using the aircraft type that suits. We’re also looking at adding a couple of other mainland routes to connect more of regional New Zealand with Auckland.
 
HLZCPH
Posts: 73
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2007 1:35 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Wed Nov 18, 2020 8:13 pm

I see the last 777-219ER left NZ for LAX last night. As a leased girl, OKG will likely ferry to Roswell after. I've noticed the company owned 777-219ERs are stored at VCV, (OKB, OKC, OKF, OKH). While the leased machines are stored at ROS, (OKA, OKD, OKE).
Travelled alot of kms on these over the years ......
 
NZ6
Posts: 1803
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Wed Nov 25, 2020 7:22 am

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19- ... UQE7OXTBQ/

Australia has moved on. I said this a few weeks ago, they've now opened to domestic markets and very close to some Asia bubbles.

I think we can rule this out until vaccine plays a part in the 2nd quarter of calendar year 2021.
 
aerokiwi
Posts: 2815
Joined: Sun Jul 30, 2000 1:17 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Wed Nov 25, 2020 2:18 pm

NZ6 wrote:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-queensland-refuse-to-join-transtasman-travel-bubble/6UUSY4FB57T4SI5Y2UQE7OXTBQ/

Australia has moved on. I said this a few weeks ago, they've now opened to domestic markets and very close to some Asia bubbles.

I think we can rule this out until vaccine plays a part in the 2nd quarter of calendar year 2021.


Huh? The Queensland premier has something like zero say on international borders and she is no friend to the federal government. I'm not even sure she's allowed to impose restrictions on flights arriving into Brisbane or Coolangatta, though perhaps there is some scope there.

Regardless, she's also just announced the opening of her own little kingdom to Victoria and NSW, meaning that the existing one way bubble allowing Kiwis into Australia quarantine free now envelops Queensland, or will do from 1 December. Even if she resists QLD airports opening up somehow, Kiwis will be well within their rights to transfer via MEL or SYD.

As per with that particular premier, it's inconsistent and lacks a sturdy logic. But it wouldn't surprise me if New Zealand does resist a border until a vaccine, given the government's ineptitude and painfully slow "effort" to date. I mean, aside from an occasional response to a media enquiry, are they even trying?

Qantas has exerted considerable pressure here to do away with internal borders quickly when it's safe by most reasonable measures. I wonder if Air NZ is going the same or if, as majority government owned and beholden to them for cash, they're keeping mum. Probably. Wonderful.
 
NZ516
Posts: 598
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Thu Nov 26, 2020 2:00 am

DHL is adding a new 5 per week freighter service from Melbourne to NZ, both AKL and CHC. The article says that cargo demand is up 49% in a year. WOW!
https://australianaviation.com.au/2020/ ... r-service/

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