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lightsaber
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:45 pm

Sokes wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
But it isn't just lines. There is surplus labor, so if staff haven't been moved from MRO work to staffing a 2nd shift on a conversion line, I would ask why.
Lightsaber

Can it be done? How much training is required?
One has to change the floor to make it suitable for containers. How fast can suppliers ramp up?

According to Wiki as of Nov 20 FedEx still has 42 new B767-300ER on order.
Would they order it again with today's knowledge?

Can it be done? Fairly easy. If you're training for MRB MRO work, then you have 90% of the training to do the conversions.
For technicians to do the hourly labor, existing techs are past due in most of the industry to be promoted to leads (mentors), they'll ramp up quickly. This industry has no problem with a 50% ramp. That is all I'm proposing. Considering MRO work is down about 50%, that is a lot of technicians, leads, and MRB qualified engineers looking for something to do.

Suppliers are panicking due to the plummet in orders. There is so much slack in the aerospace system it is sad. The goal now is to ramp up suppliers to survive. It is more a question of price negotiations than capability. IAI and Boeing hold all the cards in the 767 conversion market. It is the new conversions that will have issues ramping up (new parts).

As to FedEx reordering with today's knowledge, that is a different topic. I think they made a smart decision. With the demand surge for packages, I think they might order more aircraft and at today's costs, converted 767s just make sense. They have 92 in service and are fading out higher cost aircraft. With the surge in demand, I estimate they need another 30 767Fs above the current orders and another 30 to 40 752BCFs. (Wikipedia has a mistake in labeling them SFs, that is IAI bedek, P2F is EFW,

All indications are that IAI is considering new conversion lines:
https://www.aircargonews.net/services/f ... -services/

If you read that article:
762 conversion rates spiking. That was a surprise to IAI, but they're noting they are acquiring the orders!
763 conversions were limited previously by stock (Boeing had an advantage of acquiring aircraft pre-Covid19). Not an issue today.

It has never been easier to expand production, unless your stuff competes with medical supplies (certain rare earospace coatings are currently issues for yours truly as the few vendors mostly do medical equipment, but that doesn't apply to cargo conversions as these are space rated coatings, not aircraft coatings).

Stock will be cheap and readily available for years. It is a matter of ramping up the conversion without raising the cost. That means developing a backlog. I think that will happen due to the, what I believe, permanent shift to more online ordering.

With the huge limits of validity (long certified usable lives) of the 757 and 767, I see no reason why conversions will not accelerate. The A32x is just limited by the cost of aircraft (conversions look at remaining cycles/hours and right now, an A321 costs a lot more than a 757 even when the present value of fuel and maintenance savings comes into play, that will naturally change with time). Naturally, the least desirable planes will be scrapped.

But they are still getting orders for 762 conversions... That tells me freight companies want low acquisition cost freighters. IAI will supply.

I wish I knew the depth of their backlog versus the traditional backlog. Anyone have a link?

Lightsaber
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jeffrey0032j
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:39 pm

Sokes wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
But it isn't just lines. There is surplus labor, so if staff haven't been moved from MRO work to staffing a 2nd shift on a conversion line, I would ask why.
Lightsaber

Can it be done? How much training is required?
One has to change the floor to make it suitable for containers. How fast can suppliers ramp up?

According to Wiki as of Nov 20 FedEx still has 42 new B767-300ER on order.
Would they order it again with today's knowledge?

FedEx goes almost entirely for new builds for their 767s, their only second hand 767s were also factory built freighters. I would think they are quite happy with their current order considering that they had ample opportunities to acquire second hand conversions.
 
Sokes
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:48 pm

@lightsaber:
Thanks. Happy to hear the MRO guys can switch work.
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Sokes
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:51 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
I would think they are quite happy with their current order considering that they had ample opportunities to acquire second hand conversions.

That makes sense.
However I thought more of converted A330s as alternative. Yes, I know, not enough parking place.
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lightsaber
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:47 pm

Sokes wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
I would think they are quite happy with their current order considering that they had ample opportunities to acquire second hand conversions.

That makes sense.
However I thought more of converted A330s as alternative. Yes, I know, not enough parking place.

The larger wingspan of the A330 has been discussed as an impediment to FedEx at their major hubs as they just do not have more land to accommodate per prior discussion.

In general, real estate is getting quite expensive. Few airports have the land to expand (while a few have lots of land). Ramp space and parking at the terminals is getting precious. It is one reason I think folding wingtips, being introduced on the 777x, will eventually be normal.

This allows, for the 777x, a Code F wingspan (within 80m, in this case 71.8 m) (in flight efficiency, much better wing loading than the 777-300ER) in a code E gate (within 65m wingspan). I see this option as popular with FedEx and at any congested airport with every airline (pretty much all hubs, once we recover).

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A380MSN004
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:39 am

Hi guys,

B767-300BCF = Boeing Converted Freighter performed by ST Aero
B767-300 BDSF = BEDEK Special Freighter performed by IAI (Formerly BEDEK)

Couple of questions :

- Does the BDSF variant is a subtype or a STC?

- What are the technical differences between the B767-300BDSF and the B767-300BCF?

- Both conversions (BDSF/BCF) are at the same price?

Many thanks.
 
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747classic
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:04 pm

A380MSN004 wrote:
Hi guys,

B767-300BCF = Boeing Converted Freighter performed by ST Aero
B767-300 BDSF = BEDEK Special Freighter performed by IAI (Formerly BEDEK)

Couple of questions :

- Does the BDSF variant is a subtype or a STC?

- What are the technical differences between the B767-300BDSF and the B767-300BCF?

- Both conversions (BDSF/BCF) are at the same price?

Many thanks.


B767-300BDSF STCs (Supplemental Type Certificate) from the leading aviation authorities - FAA, EASA and others was developed in 2009 under M&B Conversions joint venture, based on the 767- 200 program,
see : https://www.iai.co.il/drupal/sites/defa ... %20STC.pdf

BCF = subtype , see page 5 : https://rgl.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guid ... Rev_37.pdf

Technical differences : BDSF is reversed engineered, BCF = full support of OEM (Boeing)

BCF conversion is more expensive than BDSF conversion.
Operating a twin over the ocean, you're always one engine failure from a total emergency.
 
A380MSN004
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:13 pm

747classic wrote:
A380MSN004 wrote:
Hi guys,

B767-300BCF = Boeing Converted Freighter performed by ST Aero
B767-300 BDSF = BEDEK Special Freighter performed by IAI (Formerly BEDEK)

Couple of questions :

- Does the BDSF variant is a subtype or a STC?

- What are the technical differences between the B767-300BDSF and the B767-300BCF?

- Both conversions (BDSF/BCF) are at the same price?

Many thanks.


B767-300BDSF STCs (Supplemental Type Certificate) from the leading aviation authorities - FAA, EASA and others was developed in 2009 under M&B Conversions joint venture, based on the 767- 200 program,
see : https://www.iai.co.il/drupal/sites/defa ... %20STC.pdf

BCF = subtype , see page 5 : https://rgl.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guid ... Rev_37.pdf

Technical differences : BDSF is reversed engineered, BCF = full support of OEM (Boeing)

BCF conversion is more expensive than BDSF conversion.


Thanks for your feedback. Regarding operations, is there a Max Load difference between the the 767-300BDSF and the 767-300BCF ?

Also, what make the operators choosing the 767-300BCF while the 767-300BDSF is cheaper ?

Many thanks
 
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Spacepope
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:26 pm

lightsaber wrote:
amdiesen wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I see a market where:
2. There is demand for another A330 conversion...
Lightsaber

you're right!

IAI launches A330-300 conversion program
https://cargofacts.com/editorial/carous ... n-program/
/* difficult to discern if this is an aspiration or an objective-in-motion */

Pulling the quote: Israel Aerospace Industries’ (IAI’s) next passenger-to-freighter conversion program will be the A330-300.
:rotfl:
I swear I didn't know about that...
I did a quick estimate of how big the market was likely to be, how much a conversion cost, I assumed the figures in this thread are somewhat accurate and decided that IAI could undercut EFW by enough

Since that was a VP and manager of marketing, I take it as the next pitch to the board of directors. I see enough demand for a 2nd, but not a 3rd conversion kit. IAI has the technical know how, so they could pull it off. There are so many A333s that will be looking for a new home that two shops will be busy for a long time.
Lightsaber


That one is just odd to me. The A330 conversion line in Dresden was only running at about half capacity at best since the program began, so it's not like there is a huge backlog. Perhaps anticipating more Asian customers? The trend has been sending the A330Fs to Honk Kong duty, and transferring the displaced A300s back to Europe (eating up cycles saved by the 4+ hour out and backs on HKG-NRT daily).
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lightsaber
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Fri Nov 06, 2020 5:37 pm

Spacepope wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
amdiesen wrote:
you're right!

IAI launches A330-300 conversion program
https://cargofacts.com/editorial/carous ... n-program/
/* difficult to discern if this is an aspiration or an objective-in-motion */

Pulling the quote: Israel Aerospace Industries’ (IAI’s) next passenger-to-freighter conversion program will be the A330-300.
:rotfl:
I swear I didn't know about that...
I did a quick estimate of how big the market was likely to be, how much a conversion cost, I assumed the figures in this thread are somewhat accurate and decided that IAI could undercut EFW by enough

Since that was a VP and manager of marketing, I take it as the next pitch to the board of directors. I see enough demand for a 2nd, but not a 3rd conversion kit. IAI has the technical know how, so they could pull it off. There are so many A333s that will be looking for a new home that two shops will be busy for a long time.
Lightsaber


That one is just odd to me. The A330 conversion line in Dresden was only running at about half capacity at best since the program began, so it's not like there is a huge backlog. Perhaps anticipating more Asian customers? The trend has been sending the A330Fs to Honk Kong duty, and transferring the displaced A300s back to Europe (eating up cycles saved by the 4+ hour out and backs on HKG-NRT daily).

I believe the main issue was cost of stock. Until aircraft can be returned and go through the quagmire of asset ownership of modern aircraft financing, there will be a delay.

If IAI sees a market, it could be EFW either:
1. Spent to much developing the conversion resulting in an expensive conversion.
2. EFWs profits are high per unit.

Stock will drop in price quickly as lease returns accelerate. Combine cheaper stock with the increased limit if Validity on the A330, we should see many more conversions.

The A300s are aging out. I expect A330 or 767 to replace them over the next few years.

Lightsaber
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Fri Nov 06, 2020 5:55 pm

About the A380 retirements - I don't necessarily want to create a separate thread for this as it might be a quick answer. Given the future fate of A380s (no freight conversions, pax retirements), would it be practical to repurpose the engines for something else? Many of those engines don't have all that much use on them.
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lightsaber
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:09 pm

A380MSN004 wrote:
747classic wrote:
A380MSN004 wrote:
Hi guys,

B767-300BCF = Boeing Converted Freighter performed by ST Aero
B767-300 BDSF = BEDEK Special Freighter performed by IAI (Formerly BEDEK)

Couple of questions :

- Does the BDSF variant is a subtype or a STC?

- What are the technical differences between the B767-300BDSF and the B767-300BCF?

- Both conversions (BDSF/BCF) are at the same price?

Many thanks.


B767-300BDSF STCs (Supplemental Type Certificate) from the leading aviation authorities - FAA, EASA and others was developed in 2009 under M&B Conversions joint venture, based on the 767- 200 program,
see : https://www.iai.co.il/drupal/sites/defa ... %20STC.pdf

BCF = subtype , see page 5 : https://rgl.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guid ... Rev_37.pdf

Technical differences : BDSF is reversed engineered, BCF = full support of OEM (Boeing)

BCF conversion is more expensive than BDSF conversion.


Thanks for your feedback. Regarding operations, is there a Max Load difference between the the 767-300BDSF and the 767-300BCF ?

Also, what make the operators choosing the 767-300BCF while the 767-300BDSF is cheaper ?

Many thanks

Factory 767-300F freighter, 54.4 metric tons (I assume without winglets, 52.4 with)
https://iccjet.com/en/12-en/aircraft-fo ... %20traffic.

767-300F: 50 metric tons
https://www.aerospace-technology.com/ne ... g-767-bcf/

767-300BDSF:
Without winglets 128,200lb (58,150 kg)
With winglets 125,200 lb (56,789 kg)
https://www.iai.co.il/p/b767-300bdsf

The 767BCF is not necessarily more expensive on large orders. Boeing has certified MROs in China to bring down cost.

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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:14 pm

N328KF wrote:
About the A380 retirements - I don't necessarily want to create a separate thread for this as it might be a quick answer. Given the future fate of A380s (no freight conversions, pax retirements), would it be practical to repurpose the engines for something else? Many of those engines don't have all that much use on them.

The engines are out of date vs. T1000, Txwb, or GEnX, so no retrofit or new aircraft will use them.

They could use the intermediate and high spool for ground power. But for an aero application, they are done.

Lightsaber
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Antarius
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:38 pm

lightsaber wrote:
N328KF wrote:
About the A380 retirements - I don't necessarily want to create a separate thread for this as it might be a quick answer. Given the future fate of A380s (no freight conversions, pax retirements), would it be practical to repurpose the engines for something else? Many of those engines don't have all that much use on them.

The engines are out of date vs. T1000, Txwb, or GEnX, so no retrofit or new aircraft will use them.

They could use the intermediate and high spool for ground power. But for an aero application, they are done.

Lightsaber


And they're unique. The RR 900 and GP7200 aren't used on other aircraft.

Same issue with the a345/6 and it's Trent 550s. Orphan engine on a orphan fleet means they're scrap.
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lightsaber
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:53 pm

Antarius wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
N328KF wrote:
About the A380 retirements - I don't necessarily want to create a separate thread for this as it might be a quick answer. Given the future fate of A380s (no freight conversions, pax retirements), would it be practical to repurpose the engines for something else? Many of those engines don't have all that much use on them.

The engines are out of date vs. T1000, Txwb, or GEnX, so no retrofit or new aircraft will use them.

They could use the intermediate and high spool for ground power. But for an aero application, they are done.

Lightsaber


And they're unique. The RR 900 and GP7200 aren't used on other aircraft.

Same issue with the a345/6 and it's Trent 550s. Orphan engine on a orphan fleet means they're scrap.

The T500s actually have some parts that can be used in other Trents, piece part identical. The T900 and GP7200 are now suitable for museum display.

Lightsaber
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CFRPwingALbody
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:15 pm

About the slow start for A330 conversions, I think there were several resons.
1) High demand for pax A330s to cover the 787 RR trent 1000 groundings.
2) High A330 frame value, thus expansive concerted freighters.
3) The first couple of years the A330-300 had a 212mT MTOW. In three steps this was increased to 242mT. The A330NEO had another MTOW increase to 251mT. The A330s most suitable for P2F are young. The older frames have lower MTOW.
 
A380MSN004
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:25 pm

lightsaber wrote:
A380MSN004 wrote:
747classic wrote:

B767-300BDSF STCs (Supplemental Type Certificate) from the leading aviation authorities - FAA, EASA and others was developed in 2009 under M&B Conversions joint venture, based on the 767- 200 program,
see : https://www.iai.co.il/drupal/sites/defa ... %20STC.pdf

BCF = subtype , see page 5 : https://rgl.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guid ... Rev_37.pdf

Technical differences : BDSF is reversed engineered, BCF = full support of OEM (Boeing)

BCF conversion is more expensive than BDSF conversion.


Thanks for your feedback. Regarding operations, is there a Max Load difference between the the 767-300BDSF and the 767-300BCF ?

Also, what make the operators choosing the 767-300BCF while the 767-300BDSF is cheaper ?

Many thanks

Factory 767-300F freighter, 54.4 metric tons (I assume without winglets, 52.4 with)
https://iccjet.com/en/12-en/aircraft-fo ... %20traffic.

767-300F: 50 metric tons
https://www.aerospace-technology.com/ne ... g-767-bcf/

767-300BDSF:
Without winglets 128,200lb (58,150 kg)
With winglets 125,200 lb (56,789 kg)
https://www.iai.co.il/p/b767-300bdsf

The 767BCF is not necessarily more expensive on large orders. Boeing has certified MROs in China to bring down cost.

Lightsaber


Thanks Lightsaber
 
jreeves96
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:27 pm

What about 747-400BCF?

My company currently operates two BCFs and two BDSFs that were on death row but got picked up last minute. Frankly, I would like for them to get rid of the BDSF's and pick up a few more BCFs with the telair system.
 
MD80MKE
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:01 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
About the slow start for A330 conversions, I think there were several resons.
1) High demand for pax A330s to cover the 787 RR trent 1000 groundings.
2) High A330 frame value, thus expansive concerted freighters.
3) The first couple of years the A330-300 had a 212mT MTOW. In three steps this was increased to 242mT. The A330NEO had another MTOW increase to 251mT. The A330s most suitable for P2F are young. The older frames have lower MTOW.


Good points CFRP! On 3), with the phase out of some RR-Powered A330-300s by passenger airlines in the past year, some of the newer vintage did get the payload boost. The two newest conversions delivered to DHL by EFW this year has max payload of more than 63T, more than 5Ts than the oldest PW-powered frames. With the Covid-19s hitting the global passenger airlines demand, younger and higher MTOW A330-300s will be available to be picked up cheap.

On a side note, does anyone know what Altavair is going to do with the 16 A330-200s and 6 A330-300s they bought from Etihad. There were rumor a long time ago that Altavair was targeting Amazon after those are converted. Haven't heard anything on that front for a while.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:16 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
About the slow start for A330 conversions, I think there were several resons.
1) High demand for pax A330s to cover the 787 RR trent 1000 groundings.
2) High A330 frame value, thus expansive concerted freighters.
3) The first couple of years the A330-300 had a 212mT MTOW. In three steps this was increased to 242mT. The A330NEO had another MTOW increase to 251mT. The A330s most suitable for P2F are young. The older frames have lower MTOW.

I agree Early, low MTOW frames have two strikes against them.

As more A339, 789/787-10, snd A359 are delivered, A333/A332 resale values should drop. As IAI needs a few years to develop and certify the conversion, they'll do well if they move forward with an A330 conversion. So will EFW.

Owners of airframes just haven't accepted reality.

jreeves96 wrote:
What about 747-400BCF?

My company currently operates two BCFs and two BDSFs that were on death row but got picked up last minute. Frankly, I would like for them to get rid of the BDSF's and pick up a few more BCFs with the telair system.

There are no 764 for sale. They are rather economical for what they do in pax duty. I cannot say for certain, but by the time 764s are available, we'll be talking 787 conversions too.

Lightsaber
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jreeves96
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:48 pm

lightsaber wrote:
CFRPwingALbody wrote:
jreeves96 wrote:
What about 747-400BCF?

My company currently operates two BCFs and two BDSFs that were on death row but got picked up last minute. Frankly, I would like for them to get rid of the BDSF's and pick up a few more BCFs with the telair system.

There are no 764 for sale. They are rather economical for what they do in pax duty. I cannot say for certain, but by the time 764s are available, we'll be talking 787 conversions too.

Lightsaber


Well it's a good thing I didn't want a 764! ;)
 
amdiesen
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:13 am

jreeves96 wrote:
What about 747-400BCF?
My company currently operates two BCFs and two BDSFs that were on death row but got picked up last minute. Frankly, I would like for them to get rid of the BDSF's and pick up a few more BCFs with the telair system.

At their ~31+/- year "D" check, your team will have a 'head scratching' conundrum.
factor1: Jet Fuel prices in ~2013, four years after the financial crisis, sent a number of b744s to the desert.
factor2: Kalitta is positioned to compete for your DHL business with their economically advantaged b773ersf's coming online.

Your company would get significant utility if they could convince Boeing to launch a B772LR P2F conversion and economically acquire Delta's well maintained frames as feed-stock. For the board's consideration; the key factor in the argument is that the B772LR would convert into a more flexible frame; a "mixed(130 kg/m^3)" weight class versus the b773ersf's "express (110kg/m^3)" specs.
It's an interesting puzzle as 1) the B772LR frames, cite Lightsaber, will be comparatively inexpensive if not close to scrap, 2) it should be a cheaper conversion, 3) program costs would be amortized over fewer frames. **remember, not only is it a shorter frame but it was designed to be converted.
Rationally, Fedex and Kalitta would be key beneficiaries of the 773 conversion. Imo, your firm would appreciate the flexibility of the GE-115 powered b772bcf which aligns with the company's business model and justifies Mr. Poster's lucid strategic decision to park the BDSF's. Purchased frames could be used for passenger charter work until they are queued.

Antarius's valid concerns...
Antarius wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
[
_c. I see Bedek offering a 77L conversion. There are 60 frames begging for a 2nd life with low cycles and... so young they cannot have enough hours to discourage a conversion. But first the 777-300ERSF

I'm not sold on this. 60 frames is a very small number. This would require certification, testing etc. and the payoff isn't very high.

...and Boeing's thesis that a market remains for new b772f frames make the business case a difficult needle to thread. An arguing "for" factor is that it would put talent back to work now.

..........................................................................................................
data to support A306*F frames that are candidates for A33*F replacement:
airline, frames, path
FedEx, 65, b763f
UPS, 53, retain
Aero Union, 3, GE shop
EATLeipzig(dhl), 22, potential
AHongKong(dhl), 9, potential
MNG, 7, potential
ASL_group(dhl), 4, potential
potential candidates = 42
total A306F frames = 163

** A330-**3: the engine code delineating an upgrade from the low MTOW, A330-**2, models
puzzling over:
1) proper amortization of long-lived assets where costs and revenue are complex, in a technologically evolving environment.
2) the economics of gate real estate
 
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lightsaber
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Sat Nov 07, 2020 4:09 pm

jreeves96 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
CFRPwingALbody wrote:
There are no 764 for sale. They are rather economical for what they do in pax duty. I cannot say for certain, but by the time 764s are available, we'll be talking 787 conversions too.

Lightsaber


Well it's a good thing I didn't want a 764! ;)

:rotfl: Oops, I missed one number...

The 744BDSF has good AF stock. As noted, any future conversions will be competing against the 777-300ERSF. The stock cost will have to be lower as the in service fuel and maintenance is much higher. When the next freight downturn happens (and it will), the 777-300ERSFs will plug along at low profits and the 744BDSFs and other conversions will be the first parked (The factory 744Fs have better economics, so are in between.) So I could see a few conversions until the 777-300ERSF is certified. At that point, the industry will tack. Of course this is based on aircraft resale values.

Lightsaber
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A380MSN004
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Sat Nov 07, 2020 4:54 pm

jreeves96 wrote:
What about 747-400BCF?

My company currently operates two BCFs and two BDSFs that were on death row but got picked up last minute. Frankly, I would like for them to get rid of the BDSF's and pick up a few more BCFs with the telair system.


If no Telair System on the "Old School" 747-400BDSF what system do you have on those ?
 
smartplane
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Sat Nov 07, 2020 5:05 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Owners of airframes just haven't accepted reality.

That's partly because funding has been secured using those now highly inflated values. Sell one of 20 in a fleet cheap, and lenders will want more security, or bulk reduction in facilities on the remaining 19.

This site also perpetuates the myth with inflated new and used values and prices. Real value is masked by below the line seller incentives, which have never been greater.

Supply won't improve until really bad things happen in the industry. By then the potential conversion market will be softer as financiers are scared out of the sector.

Also, standby for massive increases in parts prices, using COVID to justify, conveniently ensuring older models don't linger. Watch AD compliance costs rocket. And announcements OEM's will cease support on a range of older and / or niche aircraft models and engines.
 
jreeves96
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:05 pm

A380MSN004 wrote:
jreeves96 wrote:
What about 747-400BCF?

My company currently operates two BCFs and two BDSFs that were on death row but got picked up last minute. Frankly, I would like for them to get rid of the BDSF's and pick up a few more BCFs with the telair system.


If no Telair System on the "Old School" 747-400BDSF what system do you have on those ?


Our two BDSF's have the Ancra system. Absolute trash. We believe IAI wired the system wrong as some local switches control other local switches, creating a very dangerous environment.
 
gdavis003
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Sat Nov 07, 2020 8:02 pm

Anyone have any idea what the costs are like for an MD80 or even a CRJ200? A few cargo operators in the states use those, but wonder what the cost is for these compared to a 737 or something of the like. You would think high maintenance costs would outweigh the conversion costs on those older airframes though
 
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747classic
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Sun Nov 08, 2020 6:16 am

jreeves96 wrote:
A380MSN004 wrote:
jreeves96 wrote:
What about 747-400BCF?

My company currently operates two BCFs and two BDSFs that were on death row but got picked up last minute. Frankly, I would like for them to get rid of the BDSF's and pick up a few more BCFs with the telair system.


If no Telair System on the "Old School" 747-400BDSF what system do you have on those ?


Our two BDSF's have the Ancra system. Absolute trash. We believe IAI wired the system wrong as some local switches control other local switches, creating a very dangerous environment.


The brand of cargo handling system is a customer option and has nothing to do with the fact if it's a -BCF or a -BDSF.
I have seen many -400BDSF's with the telair system.
If the ancra system, as installed in your two -BDSF aircraft (ex EVA ?) is unsafe, you have to report it to your employer.

Are these the aircraft involved ?

N429MC, 747-481BCF, stored MZJ from Jan 2th 2020 - April 1th 2020
N471MC, 747-412BCF, stored ILD from Feb 2th 2020 - April 8th 2020
N473MC, 747-45E(BDSF), stored MZJ from Dec 24th 2019 - April 26th 2020.
N472MC, 747-45E(BDSF,) stored MZJ from Dec 29th 2019 - Oct 21th 2020
Operating a twin over the ocean, you're always one engine failure from a total emergency.
 
A380MSN004
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Sun Nov 08, 2020 8:29 am

gdavis003 wrote:
Anyone have any idea what the costs are like for an MD80 or even a CRJ200? A few cargo operators in the states use those, but wonder what the cost is for these compared to a 737 or something of the like. You would think high maintenance costs would outweigh the conversion costs on those older airframes though


Here you go :

CRJ200 F : 1,8M USD

Source : IBA/ISTAT
 
Sokes
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:36 am

smartplane wrote:
This site also perpetuates the myth with inflated new and used values and prices. Real value is masked by below the line seller incentives, which have never been greater.

Interesting post, but this part I don't understand. Can you expand?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
jreeves96
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:42 pm

747classic wrote:
jreeves96 wrote:
A380MSN004 wrote:

If no Telair System on the "Old School" 747-400BDSF what system do you have on those ?


Our two BDSF's have the Ancra system. Absolute trash. We believe IAI wired the system wrong as some local switches control other local switches, creating a very dangerous environment.


The brand of cargo handling system is a customer option and has nothing to do with the fact if it's a -BCF or a -BDSF.
I have seen many -400BDSF's with the telair system.
If the ancra system, as installed in your two -BDSF aircraft (ex EVA ?) is unsafe, you have to report it to your employer.

Are these the aircraft involved ?

N429MC, 747-481BCF, stored MZJ from Jan 2th 2020 - April 1th 2020
N471MC, 747-412BCF, stored ILD from Feb 2th 2020 - April 8th 2020
N473MC, 747-45E(BDSF), stored MZJ from Dec 24th 2019 - April 26th 2020.
N472MC, 747-45E(BDSF,) stored MZJ from Dec 29th 2019 - Oct 21th 2020


Bingo. Particularly 473. We turn the system off and hand push pallets, mostly AMC. Haven’t worked 472 and 471 in a long time so I can’t remember what the system is like. 429 is nearly perfect.
 
A380MSN004
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Mon Nov 09, 2020 4:09 pm

747classic wrote:
jreeves96 wrote:
A380MSN004 wrote:

If no Telair System on the "Old School" 747-400BDSF what system do you have on those ?


Our two BDSF's have the Ancra system. Absolute trash. We believe IAI wired the system wrong as some local switches control other local switches, creating a very dangerous environment.


The brand of cargo handling system is a customer option and has nothing to do with the fact if it's a -BCF or a -BDSF.
I have seen many -400BDSF's with the telair system.
If the ancra system, as installed in your two -BDSF aircraft (ex EVA ?) is unsafe, you have to report it to your employer.

Are these the aircraft involved ?

N429MC, 747-481BCF, stored MZJ from Jan 2th 2020 - April 1th 2020
N471MC, 747-412BCF, stored ILD from Feb 2th 2020 - April 8th 2020
N473MC, 747-45E(BDSF), stored MZJ from Dec 24th 2019 - April 26th 2020.
N472MC, 747-45E(BDSF,) stored MZJ from Dec 29th 2019 - Oct 21th 2020


When you order a new converted B767-300ER, what sort of "options" the carriers can get?
Can they ask for instance Crewrests for long flights or ehanced cargo systems with RFID tracking etc?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Mon Nov 09, 2020 4:24 pm

Wow, latest 15 or 20 year old stock value of aircraft has plummeted:
https://leehamnews.com/2020/11/09/ponti ... ts-plunge/

77W from $46 million to $24.5 I think saving $21.5 million on the aircraft to convert changes the economics.

A332 $24.2 to $17. Saving $7.2 million will accelerate conversions

737 prices have dropped more than A320, almost certainly due to the impending MAX RTS.

Interesting times.

Lightsaber
6 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Mon Nov 09, 2020 4:32 pm

smartplane wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Owners of airframes just haven't accepted reality.

That's partly because funding has been secured using those now highly inflated values. Sell one of 20 in a fleet cheap, and lenders will want more security, or bulk reduction in facilities on the remaining 19.

This site also perpetuates the myth with inflated new and used values and prices. Real value is masked by below the line seller incentives, which have never been greater.

Supply won't improve until really bad things happen in the industry. By then the potential conversion market will be softer as financiers are scared out of the sector.

Also, standby for massive increases in parts prices, using COVID to justify, conveniently ensuring older models don't linger. Watch AD compliance costs rocket. And announcements OEM's will cease support on a range of older and / or niche aircraft models and engines.

Part prices are per contract. There cannot be a massive price increase. AD compliance, for MROs and large airlines is pre-negotiated on long therm contracts on a per engineering hour basis. I was consulting on MD-80 parts being sold in 2012 per the original purchase contract.

Airlines had issues with now defunct airframers pulling the sudden increase in support cost game decades ago. The parts and MRO contracts I've seen, including all CFM-56, Txwb, PW1100/1500, and CF-34 have strict inflation clauses. One reason Dassault does so much part production in India is the inflation clauses forced cutting part pricing which forced production cost cutting.

Even the 717 had such clauses, both engine and airframe.

Lightsaber
6 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:38 pm

I missed massive expansion for A321P2F. Up to 25/yr

"The Elbe Flugzeugwerke GmbH (EFW) joint venture between Airbus SE and Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd will expand beyond Singapore allowing it to convert around 25 planes each year to meet rising demand for dedicated cargo aircraft, they said in a statement."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... r-BB1aqPEU
6 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
Boof02671
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Tue Nov 10, 2020 5:04 am

Now Air Canada wants to convert 763s

https://simpleflying.com/air-canada-boe ... reighters/
 
USAirKid
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:31 am

Boof02671 wrote:
Now Air Canada wants to convert 763s

https://simpleflying.com/air-canada-boe ... reighters/


It seems to me that they’re a bit late. The soonest they’ll be able to have freighters converted and ready to go would be in what, eight to twelve months? The international cargo market likely will have changed again.

Perhaps they’re thinking of converting them short term for their use, with a planned sale to Amazon or another cargo operator?
 
Boof02671
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:50 am

USAirKid wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
Now Air Canada wants to convert 763s

https://simpleflying.com/air-canada-boe ... reighters/


It seems to me that they’re a bit late. The soonest they’ll be able to have freighters converted and ready to go would be in what, eight to twelve months? The international cargo market likely will have changed again.

Perhaps they’re thinking of converting them short term for their use, with a planned sale to Amazon or another cargo operator?

Did you read the article?

It clearly states they have 25 retired 763s from Rouge.

“ The year 2020 has certainly meant a marked increase in the makeshift and dedicated freighter conversion market. As Air Canada has withdrawn 25 Boeing 767 from its leisure subsidiary Air Canda Rouge, it is looking to use them on the newfound up-and-coming cargo market.”
 
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lightsaber
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:31 pm

Boof02671 wrote:
USAirKid wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
Now Air Canada wants to convert 763s

https://simpleflying.com/air-canada-boe ... reighters/


It seems to me that they’re a bit late. The soonest they’ll be able to have freighters converted and ready to go would be in what, eight to twelve months? The international cargo market likely will have changed again.

Perhaps they’re thinking of converting them short term for their use, with a planned sale to Amazon or another cargo operator?

Did you read the article?

It clearly states they have 25 retired 763s from Rouge.

“ The year 2020 has certainly meant a marked increase in the makeshift and dedicated freighter conversion market. As Air Canada has withdrawn 25 Boeing 767 from its leisure subsidiary Air Canda Rouge, it is looking to use them on the newfound up-and-coming cargo market.”

With the drop in resale value of airframes, there is little risk paying to convert them. As noted, it takes time to convert.

Lightsaber
6 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
Antarius
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:45 pm

Boof02671 wrote:
USAirKid wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
Now Air Canada wants to convert 763s

https://simpleflying.com/air-canada-boe ... reighters/


It seems to me that they’re a bit late. The soonest they’ll be able to have freighters converted and ready to go would be in what, eight to twelve months? The international cargo market likely will have changed again.

Perhaps they’re thinking of converting them short term for their use, with a planned sale to Amazon or another cargo operator?

Did you read the article?

It clearly states they have 25 retired 763s from Rouge.

“ The year 2020 has certainly meant a marked increase in the makeshift and dedicated freighter conversion market. As Air Canada has withdrawn 25 Boeing 767 from its leisure subsidiary Air Canda Rouge, it is looking to use them on the newfound up-and-coming cargo market.”


The point USAirKid was making was regarding the conversion, not the acquisition of the airframe, I believe.

P2F takes time. So how are they planning to start?
Militant Centrist
Let's all just use some common sense
 
jbs2886
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:58 pm

Antarius wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
USAirKid wrote:

It seems to me that they’re a bit late. The soonest they’ll be able to have freighters converted and ready to go would be in what, eight to twelve months? The international cargo market likely will have changed again.

Perhaps they’re thinking of converting them short term for their use, with a planned sale to Amazon or another cargo operator?

Did you read the article?

It clearly states they have 25 retired 763s from Rouge.

“ The year 2020 has certainly meant a marked increase in the makeshift and dedicated freighter conversion market. As Air Canada has withdrawn 25 Boeing 767 from its leisure subsidiary Air Canda Rouge, it is looking to use them on the newfound up-and-coming cargo market.”


The point USAirKid was making was regarding the conversion, not the acquisition of the airframe, I believe.

P2F takes time. So how are they planning to start?


Agree. Sounds like first pilots must agree and then they order/start conversion.

I'd suggest not taking everything in a Simple Flying article as correct, for example this quote in the article: "Technically the aircraft will become 767 BCFs – Boeing Converted Freighters. These can carry up to 52 tonnes of payload and, according to Boeing, do so at lower costs than their competition." As we know, "technically" they do not all become BCFs, only those done by Boeing, not IAI.
 
Boof02671
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:29 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
USAirKid wrote:

It seems to me that they’re a bit late. The soonest they’ll be able to have freighters converted and ready to go would be in what, eight to twelve months? The international cargo market likely will have changed again.

Perhaps they’re thinking of converting them short term for their use, with a planned sale to Amazon or another cargo operator?

Did you read the article?

It clearly states they have 25 retired 763s from Rouge.

“ The year 2020 has certainly meant a marked increase in the makeshift and dedicated freighter conversion market. As Air Canada has withdrawn 25 Boeing 767 from its leisure subsidiary Air Canda Rouge, it is looking to use them on the newfound up-and-coming cargo market.”

With the drop in resale value of airframes, there is little risk paying to convert them. As noted, it takes time to convert.

Lightsaber

Four to six months now at IAI
 
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lightsaber
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Tue Nov 10, 2020 6:06 pm

Boof02671 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
Did you read the article?

It clearly states they have 25 retired 763s from Rouge.

“ The year 2020 has certainly meant a marked increase in the makeshift and dedicated freighter conversion market. As Air Canada has withdrawn 25 Boeing 767 from its leisure subsidiary Air Canda Rouge, it is looking to use them on the newfound up-and-coming cargo market.”

With the drop in resale value of airframes, there is little risk paying to convert them. As noted, it takes time to convert.

Lightsaber

Four to six months now at IAI

What is the backlog? I would imagine very premium pricing must be paid to complete a conversion in 12 to 15 months unless previously contracted. Note: I do not know, I am estimating.

That said, I imagine, just as with Boeing, the 737 and 767 backlog provides cushion.

https://www.aircargonews.net/freighters ... nversions/

Until 2020, the aftermarket price of B737-800 remained too high for economic conversions due to high demand and the grounding of the B737-MAX. “The situation has changed with the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic,” Cohen said. “Today, with the drastically reduced passenger aircraft operations and grounding of fleets, airlines are phasing out relatively new aircraft, such as the Boeing 737-800.”

So IAI (and I assume all conversion shops) are busy.

Lightsaber
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Boof02671
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Tue Nov 10, 2020 6:20 pm

IAI has around 30 bays at TLV and are expanding TLV and MEX. there are other MROs that are capable also
 
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lightsaber
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Tue Nov 10, 2020 6:28 pm

Boof02671 wrote:
IAI has around 30 bays at TLV and are expanding TLV and MEX. there are other MROs that are capable also

They are also expanding in China per link above.

Sort of dangerous from an intellectual property perspective as upthread noted two Chinese conversions in work for the A32x family.

Lightsaber
6 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
Antarius
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Tue Nov 10, 2020 6:34 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
I'd suggest not taking everything in a Simple Flying article as correct


That's good advice in general. Simple Flying is the embers floating out of a dumpster fire.
Militant Centrist
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A380MSN004
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:15 pm

Boof02671 wrote:
IAI has around 30 bays at TLV and are expanding TLV and MEX. there are other MROs that are capable also


Are you saint IAI have unlimited capacity To convert aircrafts with no waiting Line ?
 
Boof02671
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:55 pm

A380MSN004 wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
IAI has around 30 bays at TLV and are expanding TLV and MEX. there are other MROs that are capable also


Are you saint IAI have unlimited capacity To convert aircrafts with no waiting Line ?

Did I say that?
 
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747classic
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:46 am

Boof02671 wrote:
IAI has around 30 bays at TLV and are expanding TLV and MEX. there are other MROs that are capable also


The number of bays is not limiting at the moment, but the number of skilled technicians and special tools..
If you want a 744BDSF conversion (still offered ) than you have to wait for at least a year, due shortage of skilled workers and production of (conversion) parts.
Operating a twin over the ocean, you're always one engine failure from a total emergency.
 
A380MSN004
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Re: P2F Conversion Costs

Fri Nov 13, 2020 9:48 am

Forgot the ATRs

ATR 72 Bulk Freighter Conversion ("Tube") : 400 - 600 000 USD
ATR72 Full Freighter Conversion ("Tube and Cargo Door") : 1,5 - 1,7M USD

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