Airspace at ICN can be problematic. Since the North Korean border is mere few miles from end of the runway, there is a pretty narrow funnel to get in and out Northbound.

jbs2886 wrote:

DLPMMM wrote:

With the absorption of Asiana and the resultant elimination of some of the overlap, I would think that KE will have plenty of slots available to make a reasonable remediation offer.

Add in up gauging and Asiana's position at GMP, ICN will be fine. But, what is limiting the capacity? Given ICN's location, it seems like it can expand runway and terminal capacity to grow.

ICN just added the 4th runway last year and the construction for the 5th one is confirmed to begin in 2025. With the 4th one open, the airport advertises that the capacity is increasing from 90 to 107 per hour (although other three runways will go upgrading one by one such that all four will be used together only after Dec 2023). However, the slot was still limited to 63 per hour (dep+arr combined), well below the capacity, before the pandemic due to the airspace limitation from the proximity to North Korea. As far as I know, there's no plan to expand airspace despite the opening of the 4th or the planned 5th. There was a talk to increase from 63 to 70 in 2019 but it went nowhere.

With slots being continue to be precious, I bet KE will transfer to its LCC before releasing to the competitors.

HeeseokKoo wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

DLPMMM wrote:

With the absorption of Asiana and the resultant elimination of some of the overlap, I would think that KE will have plenty of slots available to make a reasonable remediation offer.

Add in up gauging and Asiana's position at GMP, ICN will be fine. But, what is limiting the capacity? Given ICN's location, it seems like it can expand runway and terminal capacity to grow.

ICN just added the 4th runway last year and the construction for the 5th one is confirmed to begin in 2025. With the 4th one open, the airport advertises that the capacity is increasing from 90 to 107 per hour (although other three runways will go upgrading one by one such that all four will be used together only after Dec 2023). However, the slot was still limited to 63 per hour (dep+arr combined), well below the capacity, before the pandemic due to the airspace limitation from the proximity to North Korea. As far as I know, there's no plan to expand airspace despite the opening of the 4th or the planned 5th. There was a talk to increase from 63 to 70 in 2019 but it went nowhere.

With slots being continue to be precious, I bet KE will transfer to its LCC before releasing to the competitors.

I have no doubt that KE would prefer to transfer the slots to their LCCs, but KE would prefer to have the acquisition of OZ and give a few slots at ICN in exchange for a favorable approval by all involved.

KE is getting a large increase in slots with the acquisition…and KE knows how to play the political game.

To me ICN is the premier gateway to Asia from the Americas with more destinations served from the Americas (including MEX non-stop on AM and KE/AC on YYZ/YVR and obviously the USA from SEA, SFO, LAX, DFW, MSP, ORD, DTW, BOS, IAD, JFK and ATL from the DL/KE JV). The only downside is Seoul and ICN is so close to the North Korean border.

Reported that KE is seeking to rebrand leading up to the Asiana merger and recently applied for a trademark of a new logo





https://www.ceoscoredaily.com/

Looks pretty boring and hallow.

LAXintl wrote:

Reported that KE is seeking to rebrand leading up to the Asiana merger and recently applied for a trademark of a new logo





https://www.ceoscoredaily.com/

Now slap this on a Eurowhite, and its done. Or at least that is the trend now.

jeffrey0032j wrote:

LAXintl wrote:

Reported that KE is seeking to rebrand leading up to the Asiana merger and recently applied for a trademark of a new logo





https://www.ceoscoredaily.com/

Now slap this on a Eurowhite, and its done. Or at least that is the trend now.

I like the font, but the logo getting rid of the red is rough. I’m scared of the Eurowhite as well.

Do we have some informations regarding the future of Asiana A350 fleet? Korean doesn't operate A350 and Asiana seems to have suspended deliveries (no new A350 in 2021 and 2022).
They still have 8x A350-900 and 9x A350-1000 on order.

Some speculate the EU might block the KE-OZ deal, though some others believe the impact of the deal would be minimal in the EU as both are small players in the market and not harm European competition or consumers.

https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2 ... 83.html?tw

Speculation based on Korean Air co-CEO Woo Kee-hong statements that the Asiana brand could live on, and could be the name used for integrated LCC brand for Jin Air, Air Busan and Air Seoul.

However, it seems Busan Chamber of Commerce and Industry seems not to be too enthused as they see the absorption of Air Busan hurting local economy and employment.

KE is scheduled to draw up an integration plan by March 17 where they likely reveal details on how they will deal with the LCCs.

https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation ... 02834.html

when is merger projected to close?

Brianpr3 wrote:

when is merger projected to close?

2025

Cardude2 wrote:

Brianpr3 wrote:

when is merger projected to close?

2025

That's not precisely correct, I believe KE takes control prior to 2025, which is really what the antitrust reviews are concerned with. The actual "merger" of operations is planned for 2025.

Singapore competition authorities approves KE-OZ merger

https://asianaviation.com/singapore-oks ... mbination/

Per a daily news summary I receive, it says Air Busan may be divested as part of the merger per the Korea Development Bank.

Have not seen a supporting news article yet.

The Korean Fair Trade Commission is expected to announce its final ruling on the deal any day per reports. It previously gave conditional approval.

http://www.orientaviation.com/articles/ ... nes-merger

Korean FTC conditionally approved the merger.

http://koreabizwire.com/s-korean-regula ... ger/211900

On top of some fare regulation, there will be airport slot and operational right divest condition if anyone else wants to enter specific markets. For the next 10 years since the merger begins, for 26 international (of which 15 is under open sky) and 7 domestic (articles say 14 domestic but that's oneway) routes, if anyone (foreign or Korean carriers) asks, until KE's number of flight drops to below 50%, KE has to arrange airport slots in Korea and give up operational right. Of course the operational right applies to the other Korean carriers only. But giving up precious ICN (or GMP and Jeju for domestic) slots will be a bummer. ICN slot was full pre-pandemic except 11pm-6am, and the situation won't improve despite another runway added last year because runway was always under capacity but airspace was the problem.

Restricted markets:
International markets with open sky (15): ICN-NYC/LAX/SEA/SFO/HNL/GUM, ICN-BCN, ICN-PNH/HKT/ROR, PUS-DAD/CEB/NGO/GUM
International markets with operational rights required (11): ICN-LON/CDG/FRA/FCO/IST, ICN-DYG/XIY/SZN, PUS-DYG, ICN-CGK, ICN-SYD
Domestic markets (7): Jeju-GMP/PUS/Cheongju/Kwangju/Jinju/Yeosu/Ulsan

If, for instance, BA would like to enter the market, then KE has to arrange a desired slot at ICN airport. If another Korean carrier wants to enter the market, KE not only offers ICN airport slot but also divest operational right until KE's number of flight drops to below 50% (this ratio includes foreign and Korean carriers). KE does not have to sell Heathrow slot to them but the new entrance has to be the top consideration for the sale (not sure if this applies to the foreign entrance like BA).

This approval is fairly acceptable to KE since there's no restriction on overall slot percentage of ICN. The question will be how the other key authorities react (EU US Japan and China). The merger won't go through if any of these four objects. Some of them may impose a harsher condition. For instance, if I were Japan, I won't let all of 6 daily GMP-HND go to one carrier. Remember, the merger was based on the assumption that Asiana will bankrupt soon and the merger is better for competition than the Asiana's demise, but under pandemic, Asiana is doing fine with cargo.

In French paywall news site, I saw Hanjin Group and Korean chairman Cho Won-tae says the carrier accepts FTC results and will do best to meet them.

Maybe some trouble with U.S. DOJ

US DOJ has expressed concern about reduced competition and held discussions with Korean For Trade Commission in April and apparently also asked KE to present measures to address the issue.

http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/art ... dxno=92751

Thanks to strong cargo demand Asiana posted 1Q net profit of US$28.7 million.

https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/a ... 90.article

Does new leadership in the blue house affect this at all?

KE CEO believes it will have received the required remaining foreign approvals for merger by years end.

https://www.flightglobal.com/iata-agm-2 ... 86.article

Hanjin Group chairman announced plans to launch an integrated LCC brand, which will be created through Air Busan and Air Seoul and folded into the surviving brand, Jin Air.

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/20 ... 27415.html

mercure1 wrote:

Hanjin Group chairman announced plans to launch an integrated LCC brand, which will be created through Air Busan and Air Seoul and folded into the surviving brand, Jin Air.

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/20 ... 27415.html

Makes sense. Will be curious what Jin Air does with the Air Busan and Air Seoul Airbuses - I imagine replacing with MAX 8s that Jin is starting to receive.

When both airlines merge, I'm sure some routes will be reduced since KE and OZ operate flights at the same times. For example, markets like LAX, SFO, FRA just to name a few have departing flights very close to each other. Makes no sense to have more than one flight to the same destination in such a short timeframe.

3D101CA wrote:

When both airlines merge, I'm sure some routes will be reduced since KE and OZ operate flights at the same times. For example, markets like LAX, SFO, FRA just to name a few have departing flights very close to each other. Makes no sense to have more than one flight to the same destination in such a short timeframe.

Well, it depends. Many times those times are the best times and/or needed for connections. We see it all the time with LHR and other flights.

I think some routes will need to be trimmed along with aircraft. speaking of which what aircraft do you guys think will go?

there are the obvious ones:
KE & OZ A380's -2025
KE 748 -2031
OZ 744 and 763/F -2024
OZ A320
KE 738 and 739-NON ER


which leaves a few others in the question zone:
OZ & KE 744F
OZ & KE 772ER
OZ & KE A333 -(OZ' are new but KE's are not)
KE A332
KE 739 ER

my bet is on the 772E's going next

Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) announced it does not oppose the proposed merger.

https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/k ... ot-opposed

Seems U.S. DOT wants to see another carrier be given access to ICN-LAX route, and has requested information on how Korea plans to spur competition.

Korean Transport Ministry and KAL have held talks with some foreign airlines and it seems Vietnam is a target carrier that could be given 5th freedom beyond rights to operate a ICN-LAX service.

https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20220912000130

LAXintl wrote:

Seems U.S. DOT wants to see another carrier be given access to ICN-LAX route, and has requested information on how Korea plans to spur competition.

Korean Transport Ministry and KAL have held talks with some foreign airlines and it seems Vietnam is a target carrier that could be given 5th freedom beyond rights to operate a ICN-LAX service.

https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20220912000130

Yeah.. I’m not really seeing the point here if the new entrant that was meant to provide KE with the needed competition is going to be yet another SkyTeam carrier. Or maybe that’s exactly what KE wants.

Having said that, I wonder what can come out of this, with there being talks about VN being in not-so-good shape.

I would have thought this would be a no-brainer for the return of SQ…

Air Premia scheduled to enter the market October 15th.

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/220903-ypoct22lax

Delta would be a candidate but frankly that would not be the exact competition needed as JV partners. Thought United might jump on the route but given its partner is being swallowed by Korean and agreeing to the route now in effect allows the deal to move closer to fruition, then a non-starter.

TYWoolman wrote:

Delta would be a candidate but frankly that would not be the exact competition needed as JV partners. Thought United might jump on the route but given its partner is being swallowed by Korean and agreeing to the route now in effect allows the deal to move closer to fruition, then a non-starter.

Exact competition? Its literally not competition at all, as JV partners its effectively the same airline as KE.

Maybe means for Thai to return to U.S. market. They previously flew to LAX via ICN also.

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:

I would have thought this would be a no-brainer for the return of SQ…

I'm PRAYING that SQ comes back. They've been flying cargo routes between ICN-LAX, so I'm thinking they could add the passenger service back.
I think it was a big mistake for SQ to axe their ICN 5th freedoms in the first place.

FlyHPN wrote:

Air Premia scheduled to enter the market October 15th.

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/220903-ypoct22lax

Is that really competition? On a side note it's interesting to see LG jump into the airline business.

paulduwon wrote:

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:

I would have thought this would be a no-brainer for the return of SQ…

I'm PRAYING that SQ comes back. They've been flying cargo routes between ICN-LAX, so I'm thinking they could add the passenger service back.
I think it was a big mistake for SQ to axe their ICN 5th freedoms in the first place.

Even prior to the pandemic, SQ management stated their goal was to connect US and European markets nonstop and reduce 5th freedom flying in the network.

I see them building on this and not revert back to offering so many multi-stop segment routings as prior.

jbs2886 wrote:

TYWoolman wrote:

Delta would be a candidate but frankly that would not be the exact competition needed as JV partners. Thought United might jump on the route but given its partner is being swallowed by Korean and agreeing to the route now in effect allows the deal to move closer to fruition, then a non-starter.

Exact competition? Its literally not competition at all, as JV partners its effectively the same airline as KE.

I agree with you. I said..."that would not be the exact competition needed...."

LAXintl wrote:

paulduwon wrote:

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:

I would have thought this would be a no-brainer for the return of SQ…

I'm PRAYING that SQ comes back. They've been flying cargo routes between ICN-LAX, so I'm thinking they could add the passenger service back.
I think it was a big mistake for SQ to axe their ICN 5th freedoms in the first place.

Even prior to the pandemic, SQ management stated their goal was to connect US and European markets nonstop and reduce 5th freedom flying in the network.

I see them building on this and not revert back to offering so many multi-stop segment routings as prior.

I don't disagree, but axing ICN-LAX and SFO and keeping NRT-LAX and HKG-SFO fifth freedom were mistakes. Granted, those routes have histories (but so does SEL, in my opinion), but with competitions in LAX-TYO sector and HKG still being shut down and with the political situations going on, ICN could've been a better option to keep in the long run.

PolarRoute wrote:

LAXintl wrote:

Seems U.S. DOT wants to see another carrier be given access to ICN-LAX route, and has requested information on how Korea plans to spur competition.

Korean Transport Ministry and KAL have held talks with some foreign airlines and it seems Vietnam is a target carrier that could be given 5th freedom beyond rights to operate a ICN-LAX service.

https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20220912000130

Yeah.. I’m not really seeing the point here if the new entrant that was meant to provide KE with the needed competition is going to be yet another SkyTeam carrier. Or maybe that’s exactly what KE wants.

Having said that, I wonder what can come out of this, with there being talks about VN being in not-so-good shape.

VN will be happy with any chance to penetrate the US no matter how bad its situation here, as VN's services to American is never a business for profit but for politics purposes.

On the other hands, seems like VN needs a Northeast Asian connection as an alternative for its US services, and Korean can definitely provides what VN is expecting.

Report that US and UK set to approve the KE-OZ merger.

US authorities are expected to meet with KE this month, while UK competition authority expects a decision by mid-November.

In order to help lessen competition concerns, KE is reportedly in talks with several airlines, including foreign carriers and domestic LCCs, to fill the Asiana void in certain markets.

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... ger-report

Decisions from EU and Japan are expected to take longer and still in early stages of review.

I reckon Japan is going to be a big one. They're notoriously picky about HND access and the combined entity would have a whopping 7 HND slot pairs on top on having a monopoly on almost all secondary routes to Japan. This would also affect routes out of PUS and CJU in the long run. Obviously, things are not back to pre-covid levels but as the two countries reopen to one another we will see. The loss of Chinese transit passengers is big though.

Seems Korean Air is planning in capping the frequencies it offers to several markets like Europe and North America for a 10-year period.

For example, it would cap Paris service to 9-weekly flights. It would also give up frequencies at BCN, FCO, FRA, and LHR.

To the US it would drop 14 weekly frequencies to LAX, 11 to JFK, 10 to HNL, 7 to SFO and 2 to SEA to allow other carriers to enter the market and KE maintain max 50% share.

https://fr.yna.co.kr/view/AFR20221006001800884

mercure1 wrote:

Seems Korean Air is planning in capping the frequencies it offers to several markets like Europe and North America for a 10-year period.

For example, it would cap Paris service to 9-weekly flights. It would also give up frequencies at BCN, FCO, FRA, and LHR.

To the US it would drop 14 weekly frequencies to LAX, 11 to JFK, 10 to HNL, 7 to SFO and 2 to SEA to allow other carriers to enter the market and KE maintain max 50% share.

https://fr.yna.co.kr/view/AFR20221006001800884

Interesting approach, for the SEA frequency concession (and I imagine most others), this seems easily navigable. Asiana has a daily-ish 772 and KE has a daily-ish 789 (was recently A330), easy upgrades to 77Ws easily captures those lost frequencies, not even to mention DL. DL doesn't seem to be counted in the KE 50% marketshare. Only BCN and FRA really don't have a partner that can pick up capacity though FCO and LHR are not JVs (can't recall if there is a JV with AF for CDG).

I don’t understand this, the regulator basically wants KE to stop flights to only have 50% marketshare in most longhaul markets and have local or foreign competitors fill in the slack. I feel like this could have very adverse effects, by forcing the combined airline to shrink there would be a short term supply crunch, especially on routes such as JFK where competition is unlikely to enter in the short run. This will drive prices up, on LAX I doubt Premia’s entry will even affect KE because of how big the market is, I suspect both airlines will milk passengers for as much as they can. Furthermore if the Russia situation continues many european routes would be out of question, BCN would be especially hard to reach.
KE would also be encouraged to reduce capacity by flying smaller planes to reach the 50% target.

I seriously have trouble understanding these measures. Why not have the system the UK had with remedy slots being readily available for competition to come in if they so choose. But forcing an airline to reduce flights to reach a magic number feels a bit counterproductive.

It seems like the study was based more on a simple calculation than actual statements from the foreign regulators or the airlines.

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:

I reckon Japan is going to be a big one. They're notoriously picky about HND access and the combined entity would have a whopping 7 HND slot pairs on top on having a monopoly on almost all secondary routes to Japan. This would also affect routes out of PUS and CJU in the long run. Obviously, things are not back to pre-covid levels but as the two countries reopen to one another we will see. The loss of Chinese transit passengers is big though.

Lets remember HND slot assignments are designated by country. Japan awarded Korea 7 slots and its been up to the Korean authorities to distribute them.

Sure Japan can worry about overall competition between Japan-Korea, but dont see HND slots specifically becoming an issue as it's entirely a Korean decision on how they are allocated. (and in reverse the Japanese decided which of its carriers received access to Seoul GMP airport in return)

Gosh, this merger and the approvals are taking forever - what are the comparable precedents in global aviation?

mercure1 wrote:

It would also give up frequencies at ... LHR.

Perfect timing for newly-minted SkyTeam member VS then to come in and launch new flights, in partnership with KE? Particularly with VS dropping HKG, and no longer having a key Far East hub.

Uh uh. The UK's CMA is raising competition concerns about the merger.

That makes it more likely that the EU will wade in IMO. The CMA has historically been more hands off.

This merger isn't a done deal just yet.

https://simpleflying.com/uk-government-korean-air-asiana-merger-concern/