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BlueSky1976
Posts: 1892
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2004 9:18 am

Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:03 pm

I'll personally make every effort to avoid all 737 MAX flights until the aircraft is truly proven safe in service.
Proudly avoiding 737 MAX since 18.11.2020.
 
texl1649
Posts: 1582
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 5:38 am

Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:05 pm

The ramp up will now proceed finally. I believe EASA and FAA coordinated on this so it will be essentially the same training/modifications. Initial ramp up (next 90 days) will be relatively slow for deliveries but I think Boeing will provide production/delivery updates in the next couple of weeks as a guide.

No doubt, some airlines that did pay for these to then be parked will certainly be ready to resolve this matter, as will those extending leases/servicing aircraft they had planned to retire but even in COVID haven't yet.
 
Opus99
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:05 pm

BlueSky1976 wrote:
I'll personally make every effort to avoid all 737 MAX flights until the aircraft is truly proven safe in service.

And that is when?
 
AeroplaneFreak
Posts: 302
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 6:19 pm

Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:07 pm

BlueSky1976 wrote:
I'll personally make every effort to avoid all 737 MAX flights until the aircraft is truly proven safe in service.


Thanks for telling us, I was worried about what you were going to do.
 
Opus99
Posts: 1306
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:08 pm

Revelation wrote:
saab2000 wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
I suspect many of those parked planes will stay exactly where they are. Between COVID19 and the public's likely unwillingness to fly the plane, only a handful will be back in the air any time soon.

I expect it will be sooner than you think. The efficiencies are worth chasing and these will replace other less efficient aircraft over the next few months.

Obviously, there's still a lot of work to be done to bring them back into revenue service but I expect that the airlines most affected (AA, WN, UA, etc.) already have plans in place to meet the challenges as soon as practical.

The practical challenge is now to get FAA to approve each airline's training plan.

Yet the airlines will be motivated to get the airframes to RTS.

AA's CFO says due to Boeing compensation provided at time of each aircraft's delivery, each MAX they take is significantly cash positive for them ( ref: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1437865&p=22516875#p22516195 ) so during this crisis they have a positive incentive to take the MAXes.

If people believe that it was money that got Boeing into this crisis, it should not be too hard for them to believe it will be money that gets them out of it.

People who are saying they won't ever fly on MAX again will IMO in most all cases will eventually see a good fare to go visit Grandma or the beach on WN or FR or some other MAX operator and their own frugality will override their fears.

morrisond wrote:
The MAX is ungrounded and heads explode on Anet.

Maybe aviation has finally started its turn around as 2020 ends. First, BER opens, then FAA ungrounds MAX, then we expect AA to have their MAXes flying by end 2020.

Don’t forget vaccine breakthrough
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8787
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:08 pm

FF630 wrote:
Delta needs to conserve $, no MAX for now unless Boeing gives them an excellent deal on price and financing.


Delta doesn't need Boeing to finance these, unlike AAnother carrier. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/america ... eries.html

An easy $Billion ought to buy, what, 25 MAX8s for delivery over the next 24 months? IMHO, the big U.S. carriers will be wary of placing new orders (new, not simple pull-aheads) while still begging for money to extend the Payroll Support Program, or to expand the CARES Act loan program. If they see they're on their own (a fair likelihood if the Senate stays Republican), they will take responsibility for financing and restructuring the carriers as needed.
 
morrisond
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:10 pm

AA has scheduled Dec 29 as the day for RTS per CNBC.
 
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NYPECO
Posts: 601
Joined: Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:55 am

Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:15 pm

cv990Coronado wrote:
csavel wrote:
EdmFlyBoi wrote:

The idea that the majority of the flying public (who are not avgeeks) actually know what they are flying on makes most of public's opinion of the Max irrelevant. If the airlines rebrand the safety cards to 737-8 then most will for sure have no idea what kind of aircraft they are on. I commonly ask that question of non-avgeek friends and they differentiate the plane by whether it has propellors or not. Some don't even recall the number of aisles. People will forget quickly the history of the aircraft.

AA, United, and Southwest will have them back in the air relatively quickly I reckon - the fuel savings are too good not to be flying them.


Ordinarily I would agree with you but the publicity on the 737 Max is such that people will try to avoid it. It's been on the news almost as talked about as the US election. My friends and family will call on me, the resident AVgeek and ask, "737-8, is that the Max? I don't want to fly on the Max." Eventually that will go back to normal but I am old enough to remember the DC-10 grounding - and how people *did* avoid it after it was ungrounded and it took awhile before its reputation got better. (Yes I am aware that the DC-10 wasn't at fault but we are talking about passenger perceptions)


The Chicago crash was not but the Paris Turkish and the near-disaster of AA new Buffalo most certainly were. This is when it should have been grounded but as we know a 'gentleman's agreement' fixed that.
I believe the overreaction to the AA Chicago crash was a direct result of the other underreaction. The DC-10 wasn't grounded by many European airlines as far as I remember.
Hopefully, the MAX does not have another crash for some considerable time if ever because should it happen I fear it will be finished in the eyes of the flying public.


The Turkish crash was not the fault of the DC-10 either, the airline neglected to apply the fixes to the cargo door and had previously filed down the hatches to make it easier to close.
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:19 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
FF630 wrote:
Delta needs to conserve $, no MAX for now unless Boeing gives them an excellent deal on price and financing.


Delta doesn't need Boeing to finance these, unlike AAnother carrier. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/america ... eries.html

An easy $Billion ought to buy, what, 25 MAX8s for delivery over the next 24 months? IMHO, the big U.S. carriers will be wary of placing new orders (new, not simple pull-aheads) while still begging for money to extend the Payroll Support Program, or to expand the CARES Act loan program. If they see they're on their own (a fair likelihood if the Senate stays Republican), they will take responsibility for financing and restructuring the carriers as needed.

I believe even the vaunted Delta will finance.

That said, Boeing needs the PR if sales and those airlines able to take the risk will see phenomenal deals. Note, this won't be dumping as Boeing will sell above manufacturing cost. I expect WN, FR, DL, UA, AA, VietJet, IAG, and TK to at least negotiate. For DL, I could see taking -8, -9, and maybe -10s (but less likely due to the large A321 backlog).

It looks like it will take over 30+ days before the first enter commercial service.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSL4N2I43LV

The No.1 U.S. airline said it will begin with non-commercial flights in early December before resuming passenger flights later in the month.

Lightsaber
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.
 
beechnut
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:24 pm

Meanwhile no news from Transport Canada...
 
rising
Posts: 198
Joined: Thu May 13, 2010 12:59 pm

Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:25 pm

After this unprecedented review, and if United, American, and Southwest pilots says it's safe... it's safe. Count me in. I'll be on it.

I can almost guarantee Boeing's CEO, AA's CEO, and others will be on the first passenger flight.

Excellent news!
If it doesn't make sense, it's probably not true.
 
bobd6
Posts: 6
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:29 pm

I think the MAX will be back in the air soon and will send NGs to the desert awaiting a post-covid world, the fuel savings are too good. Costs are everything right now.

Also, if the passengers clearly avoid the MAX (I think its unlikely, but who knows), maybe the airlines can extract further damages/concessions from Boeing.

I personally cannot wait to fly her again.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:30 pm

lightsaber wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
I suspect many of those parked planes will stay exactly where they are. Between COVID19 and the public's likely unwillingness to fly the plane, only a handful will be back in the air any time soon.


Unless the buyer was buying the model as a replacement for old frames and needs replacement. Air Canada and Icelandair will want a return to service.

Icelandair will benefit tremendously from the improved performance. I forgot about their grounded fleet.

Spot price if JetA $1.20/gallon or about $397.81 per metric ton:
https://www.airlines.org/argus-us-jet-fuel-index/

Low was $0.61/gallon
https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/ ... y=jet-fuel

To put in perspective, in the boom times $1.70/gallon to $1.98 (monthly average):
https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/ ... months=240

So fuel is pricey enough that the MAX pays for the upgrade.

Lightsaber

FI can also start to retire the old B752 fleet en masse now. That said, they would still need a wide-body model for destinations beyond 3000 nmi. For them, I'd expect them to be in for the S21 schedule (by which point COVID-19 vaccination will be well under way).
 
JeremyXWB
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:31 pm

I'm quite curious as to which airline will be the "relaunch" operator of the MAX
Last edited by JeremyXWB on Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:33 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Revelation
Posts: 25011
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:32 pm

JeremyXWB wrote:
I'm quite curious as to which airline will be the "relaunch" operator of the MAX

By all accounts it will be AA, with RTS planned for Dec 29th.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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Sooner787
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:33 pm

I'm thinking Boeing has or will offer Southwest an amazing deal on Max 8 white tails
not just to clear them off the lot but as a hedge against Southwest ordering a bunch of A220's :)
 
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Momo1435
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:33 pm

SouthWest statement.

https://www.swamedia.com/releases/relea ... to-service

They expect that the MAX will go back into service in Q2 2021, because there's a lot of work that needs to be done to the aircraft before they can be used in service and all pilots will need to retake the original MAX training + the additional training. SW will also perform readiness flights without passengers with every single MAX before they are put back into service.


https://www.southwest.com/737MAX/
 
JonesNL
Posts: 226
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:37 pm

lightsaber wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
FF630 wrote:
Delta needs to conserve $, no MAX for now unless Boeing gives them an excellent deal on price and financing.


Delta doesn't need Boeing to finance these, unlike AAnother carrier. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/america ... eries.html

An easy $Billion ought to buy, what, 25 MAX8s for delivery over the next 24 months? IMHO, the big U.S. carriers will be wary of placing new orders (new, not simple pull-aheads) while still begging for money to extend the Payroll Support Program, or to expand the CARES Act loan program. If they see they're on their own (a fair likelihood if the Senate stays Republican), they will take responsibility for financing and restructuring the carriers as needed.

I believe even the vaunted Delta will finance.

That said, Boeing needs the PR if sales and those airlines able to take the risk will see phenomenal deals. Note, this won't be dumping as Boeing will sell above manufacturing cost. I expect WN, FR, DL, UA, AA, VietJet, IAG, and TK to at least negotiate. For DL, I could see taking -8, -9, and maybe -10s (but less likely due to the large A321 backlog).

It looks like it will take over 30+ days before the first enter commercial service.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSL4N2I43LV

The No.1 U.S. airline said it will begin with non-commercial flights in early December before resuming passenger flights later in the month.

Lightsaber


Leeham posted an article saying Boeing is selling the 9max at $41mil while they normally sell above $50mil, ~20% difference(similar difference for the other models). I don't know what their manufacturing cost is for Boeing, but 20% is quite a big chunk from their margin...
 
VS11
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:38 pm

So do we know if the AOA indicator disagree warning system is now part of every MAX or still optional?
 
MileHFL400
Posts: 808
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:39 pm

When will we start seeing the flurry of test flights of production frames from Renton?
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
rising
Posts: 198
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:40 pm

Haven't the Max jets technically been flying? I thought they move them around from time to time... positioning flights etc. Someone at the airline is flying them..... I was found it odd it was grounded yet they were flying around, just with no pax. No pilot would fly a plane that they thought unsafe. I always found that part odd as someone was flying them. Unless... did that stop a while ago?
If it doesn't make sense, it's probably not true.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:42 pm

slider wrote:
DalDC9Bos wrote:
I’m gonna disagree with a couple of you regarding willingness to fly on it. While most of the time the flying public has no idea what it’s flying, this is different. It will now be about the flying public making sure they are flying anything but the Max. Heard this from several non-av geek friends and family. They said they will look for the plane type on their ticket confirmation and check-in page. Even heard people, for example, trying to distinguish physical differences of the Max and other 737s at Southwest specifically. These crashes were the first back to back crashes in our 24/7/365 social media and online news obsessed world. This is far different than the 1990s days of a single breaking news coverage on the day of crash and updates barely mentioned on the evening news for the few that even watched it.


I agree with you here. Unlike prior air catastrophes, this really grabbed people's attention because of the high-level cover-ups and failures of certification, due diligence, and so on.

In short, the MAX events shook people's very TRUST in the system.

It did really grab people's attention over a year and a half ago. In the mean time, some pretty big things have been going on and no one cares anymore. People are much more worried about getting Covid on a plane, than the type of plane they are on. Now is almost the perfect time to relaunch this. Just for reference, it would be a great day if we only have 346 deaths in the US due to Covid today (and yes, I realize these two things aren't the same).
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:44 pm

morrisond wrote:
The only probable way that there are more crashes is if Airlines fail to take the other Major learning from the MAX disasters (and AF447 and Air Asia 8501) into account and adjust their training programs appropriately.

That is - on Average Manual flying skills seem to be severely lacking amongst Airline pilots and in recurrent training they need to be made a much larger part of the training syllabus and practiced when appropriate during normal operations so pilots don't forget how to manually control an aircraft.

There will be some MCAS training - but as far as I'm aware nothing will change in terms of 100-200 Hour wonders finding themselves in the right seat of an Single Aisle jet with very little manual flight experience in adverse conditions.


It didn't take long to dust off the old beaten argument.

While better training is absolutely necessary, it is the bad design which made humanly impossible to recover from adverse condition.
All posts are just opinions.
 
ozark1
Posts: 870
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:47 pm

EdmFlyBoi wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
I suspect many of those parked planes will stay exactly where they are. Between COVID19 and the public's likely unwillingness to fly the plane, only a handful will be back in the air any time soon.


The idea that the majority of the flying public (who are not avgeeks) actually know what they are flying on makes most of public's opinion of the Max irrelevant. If the airlines rebrand the safety cards to 737-8 then most will for sure have no idea what kind of aircraft they are on. I commonly ask that question of non-avgeek friends and they differentiate the plane by whether it has propellors or not. Some don't even recall the number of aisles. People will forget quickly the history of the aircraft.

AA, United, and Southwest will have them back in the air relatively quickly I reckon - the fuel savings are too good not to be flying them.

I completely agree with post. Since everyone has been cooped up at home for so long, they won’t have a problem getting on a MAX. Once they are flying, however, the media drama will begin: BREAKING NEWS! A 737 MAX AIRCRAFT, AFTER MONTHS OF GROUNDING, LANDS WITH INOPERABLE TOILET...MORE NEWS AS SOON AS WE CAN GET IT!”
 
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Revelation
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:48 pm

VS11 wrote:
So do we know if the AOA indicator disagree warning system is now part of every MAX or still optional?

Yes, the FAA airworthiness directive that is a part of the ungrounding requires all MAXes to have AOA disagree.

rising wrote:
Haven't the Max jets technically been flying? I thought they move them around from time to time... positioning flights etc. Someone at the airline is flying them..... I was found it odd it was grounded yet they were flying around, just with no pax. No pilot would fly a plane that they thought unsafe. I always found that part odd as someone was flying them. Unless... did that stop a while ago?

Yes, the prohibition was on operating the MAX in commercial service. Boeing company flights and airline maintenance flights were allowed in the US, even at max certified altitude. There are plenty of tracks in FR24 showing this to be true.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
2eng2efficient
Posts: 47
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:53 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
SouthWest statement.

https://www.swamedia.com/releases/relea ... to-service

They expect that the MAX will go back into service in Q2 2021, because there's a lot of work that needs to be done to the aircraft before they can be used in service and all pilots will need to retake the original MAX training + the additional training. SW will also perform readiness flights without passengers with every single MAX before they are put back into service.


https://www.southwest.com/737MAX/


Surprising they cannot do RTS sooner than Q2 ‘21. Was AA just more proactive at preparing for RTS? Or is WN more conservative?
 
airzona11
Posts: 1799
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:44 am

Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:59 pm

2eng2efficient wrote:
Momo1435 wrote:
SouthWest statement.

https://www.swamedia.com/releases/relea ... to-service

They expect that the MAX will go back into service in Q2 2021, because there's a lot of work that needs to be done to the aircraft before they can be used in service and all pilots will need to retake the original MAX training + the additional training. SW will also perform readiness flights without passengers with every single MAX before they are put back into service.


https://www.southwest.com/737MAX/


Surprising they cannot do RTS sooner than Q2 ‘21. Was AA just more proactive at preparing for RTS? Or is WN more conservative?


Probably a function of the capacity is not needed, so why spend more cash to accelerate.
 
T4thH
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:00 pm

Have I not read somewhere few days ago (I do not know where any more), the European commission will agree to unground the MAX for now, but have requested, that a third independent AOA indicator have to be retrofitted in reasonable timeframe?

I will wait till the retrofitting of the MAX will be completed.
 
Okcflyer
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:04 pm

Which carriers are in most urgent need to return -8, -9 to skies?

I'll add COPA to the list. They need the -9 for it's improved range and for the lie flat seats (product) for their 6.5+hr sectors.

I expect it is fairly easy for them to segregate Max-certified pilots to the sub fleet type.

What is the process to Panama to recend the grounding?
 
Okcflyer
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Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 11:10 pm

Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:09 pm

2eng2efficient wrote:
Momo1435 wrote:
SouthWest statement.

https://www.swamedia.com/releases/relea ... to-service

They expect that the MAX will go back into service in Q2 2021, because there's a lot of work that needs to be done to the aircraft before they can be used in service and all pilots will need to retake the original MAX training + the additional training. SW will also perform readiness flights without passengers with every single MAX before they are put back into service.


https://www.southwest.com/737MAX/


Surprising they cannot do RTS sooner than Q2 ‘21. Was AA just more proactive at preparing for RTS? Or is WN more conservative?


SWA pilot scheduling is not prepared for pilots qualified in small sub fleets. Recall they also stopped flying -300/-500 prior to MAX arrival to prevent the need of separate pilot pools.

AA's network and experience is much better regarding managing subfleets / sub-pools of pilots. They will schedule accordingly. This is also much easier to do with a hub and spoke network. Schedule the MAX only for out and back rather than hub to hub rotating.
 
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Revelation
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:16 pm

T4thH wrote:
Have I not read somewhere few days ago (I do not know where any more), the European commission will agree to unground the MAX for now, but have requested, that a third independent AOA indicator have to be retrofitted in reasonable timeframe?

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... -third-aoa quotes the head of EASA:

Ky said he expects EASA to give its technical sign-off in November, at around the same time as the U.S. FAA’s green light, adding that operational authorization for the aircraft to re-enter service depends on individual airlines and civil aviation authorities.
...
EASA’s requirements go beyond what the FAA laid out in a draft mandate issued in August by adding a third AOA sensor to the model. The synthetic sensor, which will provide more data redundancy for systems including the MCAS, will be introduced on the 737-10 and retrofitted on other models, including those in service, Ky said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ryan ... SKBN27I0Y5 says:

“Boeing are not in a position to engage in discussions on the MAX 10 at the moment,” O’Leary told a conference call. “They have pushed back production of the MAX 10 by anything up to two years ... so they are not really at a point where they can give us any deliveries ... or discuss pricing.”

So it seems although we have seen one MAX 10 prototype roll out we probably won't see another one for up to two years, and since the 3rd AoA sensor is being introduced with MAX 10, MAX operators will have to do without T4thH's business for another two years or so.
Last edited by Revelation on Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
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lightsaber
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:16 pm

JonesNL wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

Delta doesn't need Boeing to finance these, unlike AAnother carrier. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/america ... eries.html

An easy $Billion ought to buy, what, 25 MAX8s for delivery over the next 24 months? IMHO, the big U.S. carriers will be wary of placing new orders (new, not simple pull-aheads) while still begging for money to extend the Payroll Support Program, or to expand the CARES Act loan program. If they see they're on their own (a fair likelihood if the Senate stays Republican), they will take responsibility for financing and restructuring the carriers as needed.

I believe even the vaunted Delta will finance.

That said, Boeing needs the PR if sales and those airlines able to take the risk will see phenomenal deals. Note, this won't be dumping as Boeing will sell above manufacturing cost. I expect WN, FR, DL, UA, AA, VietJet, IAG, and TK to at least negotiate. For DL, I could see taking -8, -9, and maybe -10s (but less likely due to the large A321 backlog).

It looks like it will take over 30+ days before the first enter commercial service.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSL4N2I43LV

The No.1 U.S. airline said it will begin with non-commercial flights in early December before resuming passenger flights later in the month.

Lightsaber


Leeham posted an article saying Boeing is selling the 9max at $41mil while they normally sell above $50mil, ~20% difference(similar difference for the other models). I don't know what their manufacturing cost is for Boeing, but 20% is quite a big chunk from their margin...

A huge chunk. The issue will be paying overhead (advertising, administration, R&D, and anything not directly charged to programs).

The Leeham link:
https://leehamnews.com/2020/11/09/ponti ... ts-plunge/

737-8 offered per Leeham for $38 million
737-9 offered for $41 million vs. previously $50M+.

With the discounts Boeing will be forced to make under the present distressed circumstances, can it make money on the 737?

Our answer is yes, even if Boeing must absorb the reconfiguration costs. Leeham Co., our consulting arm, calculates the all-in production cost for the 737 (as well as other aircraft at Boeing, Airbus and other OEMs). We won’t reveal these numbers (after all, that’s what our consulting side gets paid for). But we can comfortably say Boeing will make money. The margin gets squeezed.


Before, Boeing printed money with the 737. Now, a small profit. Little profit before 2023 in my estimation. Those that sign up for new early deliveries, in particular those 60 whitetails, should like paying about 20% less.

Per that Leeham link, Airbus isn't matching (nor with their backlog, should they). Boeing needs to capture a majority if orders to reclaim economics of scale for the next 500 to 1000 orders by my estimation.

This shows us Boeing was setup to print money before the MCAS debacle. Now, they must cleave those paid off of the reduced overhead budget.

Lightsaber
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:22 pm

Alaska Airlines Statement

https://www.alaskaair.com/content/trave ... /737-max-9

'Our first aircraft, a MAX 9 model, is currently scheduled for delivery in early 2021 and will begin passenger service in March 2021."
 
737max8
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:24 pm

Airlines will get MAXes back as soon as possible to replace older, more expensive to operate aircraft.

WN put up a site about the return to service, it is quite nice actually. Includes a timeline to fly in Q2 2021. Pilot training is the long pole in the tent, A/C modifications have already been underway. Of course the software still has to happen but that doesn't take long.

https://www.southwest.com/737max/
The thoughts and opinions expressed in my comments do not represent that of any airline or affiliate.
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MIflyer12
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:26 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I believe even the vaunted Delta will finance.


Oh, I expect DL will continue to finance rather than paying cash (it's not Delta handing over a check for L-1011s in the early 70s), but DL doesn't need Boeing to finance them - they will have other commercial financing (and not just CARES Act loans) available.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:30 pm

2eng2efficient wrote:
Momo1435 wrote:
SouthWest statement.

https://www.swamedia.com/releases/relea ... to-service

They expect that the MAX will go back into service in Q2 2021, because there's a lot of work that needs to be done to the aircraft before they can be used in service and all pilots will need to retake the original MAX training + the additional training. SW will also perform readiness flights without passengers with every single MAX before they are put back into service.


https://www.southwest.com/737MAX/


Surprising they cannot do RTS sooner than Q2 ‘21. Was AA just more proactive at preparing for RTS? Or is WN more conservative?

It is the "all pilots" must retake training. Southwest has 9820 pilots per what I could find. AA can restart service having a small batch trained, perhaps as few as say 50 (probably more). It is far quicker to train a batch than almost ten thousand pilots.

This is the difference in work rules. AA will start training by class and as soon as a mix of captains and copilots are certified and a few aircraft modified, AA may start flying. As classes complete, more MAX may re-enter with AA until aircraft availability becomes the limit (that is 5+ months away, in my opinion, for AA).

At Southwest, when every pilot is ready (or in class? I do not know the exact rule.), only then may the MAX enter service.

It will be a step function gor WN due to work rules.

Lightsaber
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:34 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I believe even the vaunted Delta will finance.


Oh, I expect DL will continue to finance rather than paying cash (it's not Delta handing over a check for L-1011s in the early 70s), but DL doesn't need Boeing to finance them - they will have other commercial financing (and not just CARES Act loans) available.

I misread then. I agree with your statement.

DL will be securing normal commercial terms from a variety of companies (unless one makes an incredible deal, which seems unlikely, both sides like to distribute risk).

It is a question of when they might accept delivery. In my opinion, earlier deliveries will get the discounts discussed. After a few hundred orders, I expect pricing to creep up.

Lightsaber
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.
 
T4thH
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:35 pm

Revelation wrote:
T4thH wrote:
Have I not read somewhere few days ago (I do not know where any more), the European commission will agree to unground the MAX for now, but have requested, that a third independent AOA indicator have to be retrofitted in reasonable timeframe?

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... -third-aoa quotes the head of EASA:

Ky said he expects EASA to give its technical sign-off in November, at around the same time as the U.S. FAA’s green light, adding that operational authorization for the aircraft to re-enter service depends on individual airlines and civil aviation authorities.
...
EASA’s requirements go beyond what the FAA laid out in a draft mandate issued in August by adding a third AOA sensor to the model. The synthetic sensor, which will provide more data redundancy for systems including the MCAS, will be introduced on the 737-10 and retrofitted on other models, including those in service, Ky said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ryan ... SKBN27I0Y5 says:

“Boeing are not in a position to engage in discussions on the MAX 10 at the moment,” O’Leary told a conference call. “They have pushed back production of the MAX 10 by anything up to two years ... so they are not really at a point where they can give us any deliveries ... or discuss pricing.”

So it seems although we have seen one MAX 10 prototype roll out we probably won't see another one for up to two years, and since the 3rd AoA sensor is being introduced with MAX 10, MAX operators will have to do without T4thH's business for another two years or so.


Thanks for the links and yes. I will be fine to fly next years with LH group, Wizz Air and Easy Jet. And yes, I like to visit Riga in next years, so Air Baltic. A220-300 will be fine. And Wideroe has an interesting offering in summer times, two weeks, whole Norway by plane and tent on the back, can even start here in Germany, not far away. Flight to and back to Germany is included.
And yes, I was never a fan of Michal O'Leary.
 
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Revelation
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:48 pm

T4thH wrote:
Thanks for the links and yes. I will be fine to fly next years with LH group, Wizz Air and Easy Jet. And yes, I like to visit Riga in next years, so Air Baltic. A220-300 will be fine. And Wideroe has an interesting offering in summer times, two weeks, whole Norway by plane and tent on the back, can even start here in Germany, not far away. Flight to and back to Germany is included.
And yes, I was never a fan of Michal O'Leary.

You are welcome! Those are some fine airlines flying some fine aircraft to some very interesting destinations. Choice is a good thing. It's even OK to chose Ryanair, although I doubt I ever will. IMO, life is too short to fly in such an uncomfortable cabin unless it's for a short time and there is no other choice. Others seem to be perfectly happy with them. Again, choice is good.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
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ojjunior
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:06 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Any details on what is fixed?


That's exactly what I would like to know.
What (whatever reason was) and how it was fixed and what did Boeing change in its structure to avoid similar cases in future developments.
Saying they fired the responsibles is not an answer.
 
trnswrld
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:14 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
Between COVID19 and the public's likely unwillingness to fly the plane, only a handful will be back in the air any time soon.


NO ONE CARES what they fly on....Ok I take that back, a few a.net people do, but besides that, I'd say 98% of the traveling public don't know, don't care, and couldn't tell you the difference between anything they fly on. Its like getting on a bus or a train. Listen, what happened with the 737 max was terrible on so many levels. Nothing I say will change that, but the fact is we have to move on, this aircraft will be extremely safe like the 737 has always been, and like other aircraft that have had major faults, it will be and has been corrected.
 
UpNAWAy
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:19 pm

ojjunior wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Any details on what is fixed?


That's exactly what I would like to know.
What (whatever reason was) and how it was fixed and what did Boeing change in its structure to avoid similar cases in future developments.
Saying they fired the responsibles is not an answer.



This was the NPRM proposed steps, not sure what has changed for the AD or even if its released yet.


Installation/Verification of Flight Control Computer (FCC) Operational Program Software (OPS)
Note: Boeing updated the FCC software to eliminate MCAS reliance on a single AOA sensor signal by using both AOA sensor inputs and changing flight control laws to safeguard against MCAS activation due to a failed or erroneous AOA sensor.
Airplane Flight Manual (AFM) Revisions
Minimum Equipment List (MEL) Provisions for Inoperative Flight Control System Functions
Installation/Verification of MAX Display System (MDS) Software
Note: Boeing has revised the AOA DISAGREE alert message implementation to achieve the original design intent to be standard on all 737 MAX aircraft.
Horizontal Stabilizer Trim Wire Bundle Routing Change
AOA Sensor System Test
Operational Readiness Flight
 
StinkyPinky
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:19 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Any details on what is fixed?

Now the burden is on airlines to line up funds and take deliveries. It will be interesting to watch how it unfolds.


From the Alaska Airlines press release, here are the key changes Boeing made to the MAX...

-MCAS will now read information from both sensors instead of just one, which will compare the incoming data before activating.
-Pilots will be alerted if the sensors disagree. In those cases, MCAS is disabled if the sensors disagree.
-MCAS will only activate once for any given alert and not several times in a row.
-Pilots will always have the power to override the MCAS system.
 
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ojjunior
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:24 pm

Ladies and Gentlemen, Steve Dickson has the word:

https://youtu.be/E_5cpPGEj1Q
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:25 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
I suspect many of those parked planes will stay exactly where they are. Between COVID19 and the public's likely unwillingness to fly the plane, only a handful will be back in the air any time soon.

With the possible exception of Southwest, no one has the available cash to create and operate an entirely new training program right now. Surviving is the priority at the moment.
 
Aptivaboy
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:34 pm

With the possible exception of Southwest, no one has the available cash to create and operate an entirely new training program right now. Surviving is the priority at the moment.


A gentleman I know is an AA 737 pilot, and flew the MAX before the grounding. He's said that they've already started the MAX retraining program at AA, and he's in-process right now. I suspect that while survival is the big priority, getting a modern, very fuel efficient and money saving aircraft into the fleet and replacing older, less efficient metal is a means to survival. Airlines will create training programs if at all possible. In short, survival mandates that they must.
 
uta999
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:45 pm

I wonder what condition the tyres & brakes are in? Some MAX’s haven’t moved for up to two years.

The first taxi and take-off roll might be a bit lumpy.
Your computer just got better
 
acavpics
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:52 pm

Weren't there some bundles of wires in the near cockpit that were too close to each other, raising the risk of short circuits?

Has that issue been resolved? I haven't heard anything about that.
 
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Stitch
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:52 pm

beechnut wrote:
Meanwhile no news from Transport Canada...


Transport Canada has said they are not yet ready to lift their grounding.

That being said, can we keep all the EASA, TCC and other non-FAA regulatory commentary in the original thread per the Moderator's instructions? That thread is at viewtopic.php?p=22517047#p22517047

We should only be discussing the FAA and airlines who use the FAA airworthiness certificate in this one.
 
Opus99
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Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:57 pm

acavpics wrote:
Weren't there some bundles of wires in the near cockpit that were too close to each other, raising the risk of short circuits?

Has that issue been resolved? I haven't heard anything about that.

Yes those were corrected.
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