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gdavis003
Posts: 865
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:59 am

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:32 pm

mcg wrote:
CX747 wrote:
Truly hats off to all the contributors. This has been an excellent thread and really brought some Christmas cheer into watching everything. Merry Christmas Everyone.

So, as Santa and his reindeer continue to deliver their packages, where do we find Aerotranscargo's roudy 747s for the final few hours before Christmas???

ER-BAJ: Out of the former British Territory HKG headed Westbound. Operated a LGG-NQZ-KHN-??? route.

ER-BAM: Roll Tide began Christmas early and has been on the ramp in NQZ for the past 24hrs.

ER-BBB: Resting in KHN with company...company, after operating LGG-NQZ-KHN.

ER-BBC: Frankfurt, Germany for the past 4 days.

ER-BBJ: The Upper Crust Society, Factory Made, Only Nose Loading 747 of the group matched BBB's routing and also flew LGG-NQZ-KHN. Both Upper Crust and BBB share the ramp at KHN currently.

ER-JAI: Slept through all of Peak @ CGK for MRO.

ER-BAC: The Paxargo, "Gun For Hire" of Terra Avia continues to sit in LOS awaiting the next call of a midnight run.

ER-BAG: The red headed step child rests in GYD. It flew an interesting route of GYD-TII-GYD. TII is Tarinkot Airport in Afghanistan.......

National Airlines 747-400
N756CA: Flew HKG-ANC. More than likely a free bird at this point and preparing to reposition.

Western Global 747-400
N344KD: Forty FO pulled a PHL-CAE-ORD-YHZ-ANC and is currently Westbound at 32,000ft and 520kts for ANC. More than likely all done with Peak when it broke for ORD. Prior to peak it flew ORD-YHZ-ANC-ICN-CSX-ANC-ORD lengths like clockwork.

UPS 747-8F
N621UP: ANC-ICN, not a hard day

FEDEX 777F
N845FD: Old 45 Slab Slides pulled a DXB-CDG-MEM and is currently Westbound over the Atlantic.


Is Aerotranscargo primarily hauling cargo from Europe and Asia to NQZ, or is it using NQZ as a stop for cargo traveling between Europe and Asia? Thanks in advance for any info.


I believe they are using it for the latter, sort of like the role ANC plays for US-Asia routes. CX747 will know more though.
 
GSOtoIND
Posts: 155
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Sun Dec 27, 2020 8:01 pm

Longtail's VQ-BWT made another visit to IND last night and left for ANC this morning. The full route right now is SDF-IND-ANC-HKG-ICN-ANC-SDF.
 
CX747
Posts: 6571
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:54 am

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Sun Dec 27, 2020 8:11 pm

gdavis003 wrote:
mcg wrote:
CX747 wrote:
Truly hats off to all the contributors. This has been an excellent thread and really brought some Christmas cheer into watching everything. Merry Christmas Everyone.

So, as Santa and his reindeer continue to deliver their packages, where do we find Aerotranscargo's roudy 747s for the final few hours before Christmas???

ER-BAJ: Out of the former British Territory HKG headed Westbound. Operated a LGG-NQZ-KHN-??? route.

ER-BAM: Roll Tide began Christmas early and has been on the ramp in NQZ for the past 24hrs.

ER-BBB: Resting in KHN with company...company, after operating LGG-NQZ-KHN.

ER-BBC: Frankfurt, Germany for the past 4 days.

ER-BBJ: The Upper Crust Society, Factory Made, Only Nose Loading 747 of the group matched BBB's routing and also flew LGG-NQZ-KHN. Both Upper Crust and BBB share the ramp at KHN currently.

ER-JAI: Slept through all of Peak @ CGK for MRO.

ER-BAC: The Paxargo, "Gun For Hire" of Terra Avia continues to sit in LOS awaiting the next call of a midnight run.

ER-BAG: The red headed step child rests in GYD. It flew an interesting route of GYD-TII-GYD. TII is Tarinkot Airport in Afghanistan.......

National Airlines 747-400
N756CA: Flew HKG-ANC. More than likely a free bird at this point and preparing to reposition.

Western Global 747-400
N344KD: Forty FO pulled a PHL-CAE-ORD-YHZ-ANC and is currently Westbound at 32,000ft and 520kts for ANC. More than likely all done with Peak when it broke for ORD. Prior to peak it flew ORD-YHZ-ANC-ICN-CSX-ANC-ORD lengths like clockwork.

UPS 747-8F
N621UP: ANC-ICN, not a hard day

FEDEX 777F
N845FD: Old 45 Slab Slides pulled a DXB-CDG-MEM and is currently Westbound over the Atlantic.


Is Aerotranscargo primarily hauling cargo from Europe and Asia to NQZ, or is it using NQZ as a stop for cargo traveling between Europe and Asia? Thanks in advance for any info.


I believe they are using it for the latter, sort of like the role ANC plays for US-Asia routes. CX747 will know more though.


They are using it in the same role as ANC for the most part.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
wjcandee
Topic Author
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Sun Dec 27, 2020 11:04 pm

GSOtoIND wrote:
Longtail's VQ-BWT made another visit to IND last night and left for ANC this morning. The full route right now is SDF-IND-ANC-HKG-ICN-ANC-SDF.


That's so interesting! So it seems like the shipper that hired Longtail (it's someone in China) has something they're sending to SDF and apparently have found some measure of cargo to ship from IND back to China.

Also, folks should note that Longtail received permission in the last 10 days to fly a charter for a company called CargoJetX (dunno if related to Cargojet, probably not, because it's a charter not a wet lease) from 1/1-1/31/21 on a route TLV-LGG-JFK-LGG-TLV, for ten round-trips (which should take about 30 days, so that makes sense). https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0044-0821
 
GARUDAROD
Posts: 1160
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Mon Dec 28, 2020 12:53 am

BNA used to be a big Destination for DELL Computers. China Airlines Cargo used to fly into BNA for just that reason. Don't know if that still applies, but might be the reason.
Cargo doesn't whine, moan, or complain
 
jreeves96
Posts: 170
Joined: Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:05 am

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Mon Dec 28, 2020 1:17 am

GARUDAROD wrote:
BNA used to be a big Destination for DELL Computers. China Airlines Cargo used to fly into BNA for just that reason. Don't know if that still applies, but might be the reason.


Believe Atlas will fly into BNA on behalf of DHL. I always wondered why we kept getting these one off BNA flights that seemed like a couple times a month.
 
amdiesen
Posts: 189
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:27 pm

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Mon Dec 28, 2020 10:27 pm

wjcandee wrote:
jreeves96 wrote:
Figured my 767 flight for FedEx would start to see less payload buuuuut, I was wrong. Christmas night flight was the lightest we've had, but todays, Saturday, flight was one of the top five heaviest. FedEx load planner told me our plane was 80% postal. Postal is apparently very, very backed up.


I can attest to how backed up the Post Office is; just getting stuff in and out of some of the sorting facilities at the beginning end of the journey is taking days, and this with things that started at the post office 3-4 days before Christmas. [Six days right now for a package mailed Priority Mail from a post office that is a two-hour drive from me to finally make it to a sorting center 2 hours further away, for example.]

Then it has to get on a plane (and/or truck) and go through the same thing at the other end. You guys will be helping them dig out much of the upcoming week, I believe.


This highlights the conflict with the Amazon contract. How much of this is a lift issue? Are Amazon packages bumping Priority Mail hub-to-hub? How much of this is non guaranteed lift issues?

The Amazon contract was negotiated on a incremental revenue thesis. However, USPS is a letter carrier that delivers packages. The Amazon contract forces them to become a package carrier (UPS, DHL, FedEx) morphing their business model at additional capital costs and staffing. In contrast, junk mail <cough> would be incremental revenue with demimis additional capital costs.
Rhetorically, "Are a priority mail packages (service paid at posted rate) getting bumped by Amazon packages which are priced below market&cost?"


.................... data intent for those interested, attempt made to be non-inflammmatory .......................
from Tyler Powell and David Wessel's (Brookings) blog post
USPS in 2019:
revenue: 71 billion
losses: 8.8 billion
unfunded liabilities and debt(11b): ~150 billion.

Mr Powell may be an eager young analyst but if Mr Wessel had read the article through his WSJ lens; comments would have included 'unfinished draft', 'disjointed', 'missing salient facts', 'biased'. It's a blog post from the state science institute :airplane: :duck: .

An analogy for the USPS could be: Sears, failing business model and lots of unencumbered real estate

Costs to ship a package: capital costs + operating costs + accrued liabilities+ profit margin
These companies have been incrementally building infrastructure through capital costs
USPS since 1792
UPS since 1907
DHL since 1969
FedEx since 1971
adding clarity to post 580; long-term assets such as property, plant and equipment, intangible corporate culture are barriers to entry.

USPS: is expected to cover costs
-often stating revenue against operating costs
-untaxed across the bus spectrum at fed, state and local levels

using the blogs references, the Amazon/USPS contract is estimated to be $1.50+/package under market value for the service.
source, credit Spacepope: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front ... nd-funded/

Interpolated "...but for the fact that Congress, when spinning it off..." said the seer of the Peak Season thread, as he foreshadows a future 'Edward Lampert' move by Jeff Bezos...

<tip hat>
puzzling over:
1) proper amortization of long-lived assets where costs and revenue are complex, in a technologically evolving environment.
2) the economics of gate real estate
 
wjcandee
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Tue Dec 29, 2020 12:21 am

amdiesen wrote:
Are Amazon packages bumping Priority Mail hub-to-hub?


NO. All USPS does for Amazon is last-mile delivery, usually from a direct delivery by Amazon to the DDU (Post Office). ZERO line haul. None. Nada.

So all of this, and I do mean ALL OF THIS, is other merchants small and large using the USPS because they couldn't or were afraid to use UPS or FedEx in the last week.

What Amazon did, frankly, was a benefit to other merchants because it got USPS to start using its assets and capabilities on Sunday, which other delivery companies now can piggyback onto.

Trying to hurt the USPS to save shopping malls is like requiring those of driving those newfangled au-TOW-MOW-beels to carry a buggy whip in hand to smack them horsies. Lots of people love to shop in malls, and will go out of their way to do once it's safe to do so. At the same level as before? Probably not. But people like to shop and people like to socialize. It's like saying that now that Zoom is so popular, people aren't going to go to bars anymore. Nah.
 
HPRamper
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:26 am

gdavis003 wrote:

I believe they are using it for the latter, sort of like the role ANC plays for US-Asia routes. CX747 will know more though.


Interesting to see cargo airlines still doing this. For many, many years FedEx used ALA as its stopover point trans-Asia, before the 777. MD11s, sometimes multiple, were there daily. I've heard some great stories from flight crews about their layovers there.

As for USPS volume...holy crap we are buried in it. There is no tail-off in volume for Priority Mail freight. It is still every bit as heavy as pre-Christmas.
 
CX747
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:48 pm

HPRamper wrote:
gdavis003 wrote:

I believe they are using it for the latter, sort of like the role ANC plays for US-Asia routes. CX747 will know more though.


Interesting to see cargo airlines still doing this. For many, many years FedEx used ALA as its stopover point trans-Asia, before the 777. MD11s, sometimes multiple, were there daily. I've heard some great stories from flight crews about their layovers there.

As for USPS volume...holy crap we are buried in it. There is no tail-off in volume for Priority Mail freight. It is still every bit as heavy as pre-Christmas.


Indeed, the 777F for FEDEX allowed for non-stop Trans-Pac flights with the cargo weights the jets are carrying. UPS and others, that focus more on heavy cargo and less on overnight shipping continue to use ANC. That isn't to say FEDEX 777Fs are strangers to ANC! They are very frequent transient guests.

Overall, it's just different ways of picking up cargo and how one wants to load out their jets efficiently.

Is there any end in sight with the USPS volume?
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
HPRamper
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:52 pm

CX747 wrote:
HPRamper wrote:
gdavis003 wrote:

I believe they are using it for the latter, sort of like the role ANC plays for US-Asia routes. CX747 will know more though.


Interesting to see cargo airlines still doing this. For many, many years FedEx used ALA as its stopover point trans-Asia, before the 777. MD11s, sometimes multiple, were there daily. I've heard some great stories from flight crews about their layovers there.

As for USPS volume...holy crap we are buried in it. There is no tail-off in volume for Priority Mail freight. It is still every bit as heavy as pre-Christmas.


Indeed, the 777F for FEDEX allowed for non-stop Trans-Pac flights with the cargo weights the jets are carrying. UPS and others, that focus more on heavy cargo and less on overnight shipping continue to use ANC. That isn't to say FEDEX 777Fs are strangers to ANC! They are very frequent transient guests.

Overall, it's just different ways of picking up cargo and how one wants to load out their jets efficiently.

Is there any end in sight with the USPS volume?

Oh yes. ANC last week was seeing something like 26 flights daily from FedEx, all 777 and MD11.

USPS volume is expected to be quite heavy throughout this week, next week it should tail off a bit as the backlog is cleared.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:19 pm

I was going to say that some of the Priority Mail volume that FedEx is seeing this week is stuff that was presented at Post Offices 8 days ago and is only now making it to the airport from the regional processing facility.
 
wjcandee
Topic Author
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:57 pm

Couple of updates. I know it's still the tail end of Peak, but for purposes of this post, please interpret "Peak" as meaning the pre-Christmas part of Peak.

Western Global:
As you know, virtually all of the operational WGN MD11s flew for Peak. 546JN never made it out of the shop in SHV, but the rest were assigned, mostly to UPS.
After Peak, almost all of the MD11s returned to RSW or SHV, presumably for some TLC.
N581JN and N799JN, however, did not, and are still flying for FedEx (probably largely postal stuff), SDF-California and SDF-SLC.
N513SN also did not go to SHV or RSW, and instead flew to MEM 4 days ago, presumably as a spare. It hasn't moved, or hasn't had to move.
After 3 days at RSW over the Xmas weekend, N542KD started flying LAX-Asia; it's on such a run now.
The 744s are back on Asia duty, with the exception of N356KD, which is still broken in CAE after smacking that light pole on the ramp.

National
N919CA and N952CA are back on Asia-US duty.
N756CA is finishing up a USTRANSCOM trip in the Middle East, and seems to be ferrying Eastbound across Asia to pick up a commercial load.
N702CA is also on military duty.
N729CA hasn't done anything since its abbreviated test flight a few days ago.

All the IFL 727s have returned to PTK. N281FL never really got engaged in Peak.

Of the Kalitta Charters 727s, N726CK seems to have stepped in on Air Horse One duty, while N725CK (AH1) has been in YIP for 4 days. N729CK is still flying Caribbean for Amerijet.

SkyLease's two 744Fs returned to Asia duty after Peak. Of them, N904AR seems to have been stuck in XMN for a couple of days. SkyLease hasn't been overnighting crews in China, so this is likely a mechanical -- the first in a while.

Skybus's DC8-73CF OB-2059-P took Christmas Day off, but otherwise has been running at least one daily round-trip South from MIA. Recent destinations have been MGA, GEO, BGI and SDQ.
 
xjet
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:34 pm

wjcandee wrote:
Also, folks should note that Longtail received permission in the last 10 days to fly a charter for a company called CargoJetX (dunno if related to Cargojet, probably not, because it's a charter not a wet lease) from 1/1-1/31/21 on a route TLV-LGG-JFK-LGG-TLV, for ten round-trips (which should take about 30 days, so that makes sense). https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0044-0821


I think CargoJetX is just a broker. This is a route that was flown by Atlas a few years back. El Al was the customer at that point....
 
jreeves96
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:24 am

xjet wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
Also, folks should note that Longtail received permission in the last 10 days to fly a charter for a company called CargoJetX (dunno if related to Cargojet, probably not, because it's a charter not a wet lease) from 1/1-1/31/21 on a route TLV-LGG-JFK-LGG-TLV, for ten round-trips (which should take about 30 days, so that makes sense). https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0044-0821


I think CargoJetX is just a broker. This is a route that was flown by Atlas a few years back. El Al was the customer at that point....


Atlas is still flying TLV-LGG-TLV on behalf of El Al. Maybe they just needed extra lift.
 
HPRamper
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:25 am

N513SN is not in our tail database at this point and I would assume it's awaiting return to SHV or RSW. Others are still going strong on MEM-SLC and MEM-ONT/LAX, as well as the Atlas 747s and 767s on their respective routes. Seems FX planned ahead of time for peak to not be over at Christmas - a mistake that was made in the past.
 
wjcandee
Topic Author
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:25 pm

HPRamper wrote:
N513SN is not in our tail database at this point and I would assume it's awaiting return to SHV or RSW. Others are still going strong on MEM-SLC and MEM-ONT/LAX, as well as the Atlas 747s and 767s on their respective routes. Seems FX planned ahead of time for peak to not be over at Christmas - a mistake that was made in the past.


Interesting given that 513SN flew to MEM after completing its UPS assignments. Would the database include it if it was just kept at MEM temporarily by the outside carrier as a maintenance spare that might be called upon in the future? Also interesting about FedEx keeping the other aircraft running. Could a lot of this be Postal?
 
USAirKid
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:32 pm

wjcandee wrote:
I was going to say that some of the Priority Mail volume that FedEx is seeing this week is stuff that was presented at Post Offices 8 days ago and is only now making it to the airport from the regional processing facility.


I'd be curious to know what specific lanes are backed up. I have a data point. My cat's prescriptions shipped on December 24th from Tennessee, and arrived in Seattle on December 28th, which really surprised me.

Perhaps one of the caveats is that its a First Class Package and not a Priority Mail package, so it might ride in the belly of a passenger plane?
 
wjcandee
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:40 pm

Our favorite DC8-73CF, Skybus's OB-2059-P, flew to SXM today from MIA.

That must have been a heck of a sight coming over the beach!!
 
wjcandee
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:42 pm

USAirKid wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
I was going to say that some of the Priority Mail volume that FedEx is seeing this week is stuff that was presented at Post Offices 8 days ago and is only now making it to the airport from the regional processing facility.


I'd be curious to know what specific lanes are backed up. I have a data point. My cat's prescriptions shipped on December 24th from Tennessee, and arrived in Seattle on December 28th, which really surprised me.

Perhaps one of the caveats is that its a First Class Package and not a Priority Mail package, so it might ride in the belly of a passenger plane?


Or your cat just got lucky!

I think that the location of the outbound facility is a big part of it as well. Certain locations in Michigan and California were complete goatropes during the Summer, and still are. If the package in Cali went south to one outbound facility, forget it, it was a week there. If it went north to a different one, no problems. (Again, during the summer.) Perhaps other places are doing better at getting the material through the facility and onto a plane.
 
gdavis003
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:32 pm

wjcandee wrote:
USAirKid wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
I was going to say that some of the Priority Mail volume that FedEx is seeing this week is stuff that was presented at Post Offices 8 days ago and is only now making it to the airport from the regional processing facility.


I'd be curious to know what specific lanes are backed up. I have a data point. My cat's prescriptions shipped on December 24th from Tennessee, and arrived in Seattle on December 28th, which really surprised me.

Perhaps one of the caveats is that its a First Class Package and not a Priority Mail package, so it might ride in the belly of a passenger plane?


Or your cat just got lucky!

I think that the location of the outbound facility is a big part of it as well. Certain locations in Michigan and California were complete goatropes during the Summer, and still are. If the package in Cali went south to one outbound facility, forget it, it was a week there. If it went north to a different one, no problems. (Again, during the summer.) Perhaps other places are doing better at getting the material through the facility and onto a plane.


The USPS facility here in Birmingham is just a total mess. I dropped off a return that was a UPS Mail Innovations return at the post office on the 16th. I’m not exactly sure how UPS Mail Innovations Returns work, have never used it before, and I don’t know how much of the hauling is split between UPS and USPS for the Returns program. Nonetheless, on both tracking websites, I’m still showing that it’s been at the BHM postal annex since the 18th and hasn’t moved since. Seems to be seriously backed up here. I know that UPS Mail Innovations, when shippers use it, I believe that they have to wait for UPS to take in the packages until there is a certain amount of volume. I’m not sure at all how the UPS MI Returns program works though, as I dropped it off with USPS

I’m also waiting on a pair of Warby Parker glasses from USPS that shipped on the 28th. They left the origin in PA pretty quick, and they are supposed to be here by Saturday. Doubt it but fingers crossed.
 
jreeves96
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:13 am

Finished my last shift for peak this year. First time to Memphis and it was amazing to see this huge operation and meet the people that make it run. It's a little bittersweet leaving after being here for over a month but all good things come to an end. Company 767 will still operate until Sunday but I have to head home.

It's always a plus when your aircraft comes out without any damage or accidents. As far as I know FedEx took care of our 767s and 747s and it was a successful peak season. Launched my last plane at just shy of 100k lbs of payload, mostly postal of course.

FedEx, thanks for an awesome month.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:15 am

Jreeves96: Great post!

And for those who have been following the saga of the National 747s, it appears that N729CA finished up at SAT today and is now at MCO. So I guess she goes into service soon.

There are some photos of her landing in Orlando that has been posted on another site. She has been painted in the same livery as the other two Pratt-powered ones. Which I think looks nice.

Now if only someone at SXM would post a photo of OB-2059-P landing there, my day would be complete!
 
USAirKid
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:19 am

wjcandee wrote:
I think that the location of the outbound facility is a big part of it as well. Certain locations in Michigan and California were complete goatropes during the Summer, and still are. If the package in Cali went south to one outbound facility, forget it, it was a week there. If it went north to a different one, no problems. (Again, during the summer.) Perhaps other places are doing better at getting the material through the facility and onto a plane.


Agreed. It'd be interesting if we see more shippers engaging in their own version of zone skipping given the USPS's performance. I'd really love to be a fly on the wall in meetings next month analyzing what happened in the logistics here.

wjcandee wrote:
Or your cat just got lucky!


Not according to the cat.
 
USAirKid
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:26 am

gdavis003 wrote:
The USPS facility here in Birmingham is just a total mess. I dropped off a return that was a UPS Mail Innovations return at the post office on the 16th. I’m not exactly sure how UPS Mail Innovations Returns work, have never used it before, and I don’t know how much of the hauling is split between UPS and USPS for the Returns program. Nonetheless, on both tracking websites, I’m still showing that it’s been at the BHM postal annex since the 18th and hasn’t moved since. Seems to be seriously backed up here. I know that UPS Mail Innovations, when shippers use it, I believe that they have to wait for UPS to take in the packages until there is a certain amount of volume. I’m not sure at all how the UPS MI Returns program works though, as I dropped it off with USPS.


I'm pretty sure whichever DDU gets the item, holds it for UPS to pickup. Why UPS hasn't gotten to it could be a good question.

Looking at this USPS site it looks like the item gets held at the RDU (Return Delivery Units) or the RSCF (Return Sectional Center Facilities). Presumably the RDU could be a DDU as well.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:37 am

USAirKid wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
Or your cat just got lucky!


Not according to the cat.


Such a good Pet Dad!! And George is a good cat not to fight it too much, even if he doesn't like it. My little dog needed liquid medicine, and it was a battle royale until she realized after a few times that because it had to happen, it was going to happen. She made certain that I knew she didn't like it, but she let me do it twice a day.
 
dorn12
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 31, 2020 2:00 am

FedEx to take delivery of additional 777F from Etihad. MSN 39682, A6-DDA. Airplane is sitting at mx area in MEM.
 
CX747
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Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 31, 2020 2:15 am

wjcandee wrote:
GDavis003: Nice review! Great that 729CA finally got to the test-flight stage.

I have no clue what the significance is of BNA as a destination. I whomever it was needed a planeload of stuff from China.

The LAX-DWC flight was interesting, too; doesn't look like a ferry, but at 15.5 hours, it would seem like you'd see some capacity limitations.


As you are well aware, it all depends upon the weight of the cargo. LAX-DWC is a haul that shows you a wonderful view over the glare shield. The US, Canada, Atlantic Crossing, UK, Europe, Med Sea, Middle East. Yes, I will bid that!!!
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
CX747
Posts: 6571
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:54 am

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 31, 2020 3:05 am

wjcandee wrote:
Our favorite DC8-73CF, Skybus's OB-2059-P, flew to SXM today from MIA.

That must have been a heck of a sight coming over the beach!!


Glad to see that grand old girl still visible operating out of MIA.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
CX747
Posts: 6571
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:54 am

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 31, 2020 3:06 am

dorn12 wrote:
FedEx to take delivery of additional 777F from Etihad. MSN 39682, A6-DDA. Airplane is sitting at mx area in MEM.


That sale/transfer did not take long!
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
gdavis003
Posts: 865
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:59 am

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:52 am

Looks like 754CX ran a test flight today at TPA. Will be interesting to see what changes on the ATI end of things once this one goes back into service, might send another combi to maintenance at TPA? Not sure if there’s another one that needs it though
 
wjcandee
Topic Author
Posts: 10279
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:14 am

gdavis003 wrote:
Looks like 754CX ran a test flight today at TPA. Will be interesting to see what changes on the ATI end of things once this one goes back into service, might send another combi to maintenance at TPA? Not sure if there’s another one that needs it though


They really only use 3 at most at any one time, so the 4th is a maintenance spare. 754CX and 753CX have had a fair bit of maintenance in the last couple of years. 752CX a little less. None of those should be needing additional routine work for a while, and should be available unless they need elective work (i.e. avionics upgrade or whatever), or fixing complex issues that arise.

N751CX was last in for a check in TPA from 6/16-8/11/19, so less than a year and a half ago. I wouldn't be surprised to see it have a visit in the next little while, but I also wouldn't be surprised if it soldiered on for a while without a heavy check.

751 is the only one of the four that's a Precision conversion; the other 3 are Pemco conversions (at DHN, prior to the ATSG acquisition of the resurrected Pemco). That's because ATSG ordered four Combis from Precision at the same time that National Airlines tried to compete for the USTRANSCOM combi contract by ordering 4 combis from Pemco. ATI kept the contract, and ultimately CAM/ATSG/ATI took 751 from Precision but then bailed National out by buying the 3 National Pemco ones that had been completed and cancelling the rest of ATI's order from Precision. What would have been the fourth National one, N168CA, was nearly-completed by Pemco (cargo door is installed, etc.) when this all happened, and was ferried incomplete for storage at ROW in late 2012. I hear she's looking pretty forlorn these days. 752, 753 and 754 have Rollers while 751 has Pratts.

Just for the record, 752 was at TPA 4/22-7/20/20; 753 was at ILN 12/21/19-4/4/20 and at TPA 7/8-9/27/20; and 754 was at TPA 5/18-6/16/19, in ILN 9/21-10/21/19, and at TPA 11/9/20 until now.

As far as routes go, one noticeable thing is that Thule AB is usually run on 751. I don't know if there's a reason for that other than it tends to stay to the East. Thule is run with other 757 combis while 751 is in maintenance or in use elsewhere, but then it generally goes right back to 751. All four aircraft travel regularly to some pretty-lonely places over long distances where there are few diversion opportunities, so it's not like 751 should be specially-tasked to Thule: it's the coldest (and probably weirdest) location but not necessarily the most-remote location. But maybe there's more of a reason for it.
 
jreeves96
Posts: 170
Joined: Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:05 am

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:02 am

dorn12 wrote:
FedEx to take delivery of additional 777F from Etihad. MSN 39682, A6-DDA. Airplane is sitting at mx area in MEM.


I was wondering why they were operating STN-MEM on that one off route.
 
HPRamper
Posts: 5144
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 4:22 am

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 31, 2020 10:03 am

wjcandee wrote:
HPRamper wrote:
N513SN is not in our tail database at this point and I would assume it's awaiting return to SHV or RSW. Others are still going strong on MEM-SLC and MEM-ONT/LAX, as well as the Atlas 747s and 767s on their respective routes. Seems FX planned ahead of time for peak to not be over at Christmas - a mistake that was made in the past.


Interesting given that 513SN flew to MEM after completing its UPS assignments. Would the database include it if it was just kept at MEM temporarily by the outside carrier as a maintenance spare that might be called upon in the future? Also interesting about FedEx keeping the other aircraft running. Could a lot of this be Postal?

They all seem to be running as "normal" FedEx flights. Mostly PML out to the markets in the PM, mostly FX freight out in the AM. Certainly not strictly or even majority postal volume.

513 isn't showing anywhere now, at all. Not as a planned flight or as aircraft sitting at station.
 
User avatar
Spacepope
Posts: 5176
Joined: Tue Dec 28, 1999 11:10 am

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:51 pm

A quick note to our eastern hemisphere moderator friends who are locking threads: peak 2020 is expected to last a few more weeks, please don’t kill this one off just yet
The last of the famous international playboys
 
HPRamper
Posts: 5144
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 4:22 am

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 31, 2020 2:01 pm

Spacepope wrote:
A quick note to our eastern hemisphere moderator friends who are locking threads: peak 2020 is expected to last a few more weeks, please don’t kill this one off just yet


Good call! While we may still see elevated volumes due to continuing PPE and vaccine movement, "Peak" can probably be safely wrapped up by the end of January.
 
flyguy1
Posts: 1755
Joined: Wed Jun 23, 1999 9:45 am

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 31, 2020 2:05 pm

CX747 wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
GDavis003: Nice review! Great that 729CA finally got to the test-flight stage.

I have no clue what the significance is of BNA as a destination. I whomever it was needed a planeload of stuff from China.

The LAX-DWC flight was interesting, too; doesn't look like a ferry, but at 15.5 hours, it would seem like you'd see some capacity limitations.


As you are well aware, it all depends upon the weight of the cargo. LAX-DWC is a haul that shows you a wonderful view over the glare shield. The US, Canada, Atlantic Crossing, UK, Europe, Med Sea, Middle East. Yes, I will bid that!!!


Picked up another interesting National flight-JFK-UAM! That’s a hell of a long flight, clocking in at almost 17 hours! Aircraft came in earlier to JFK from XMN, via AMC. N952CA, performing what I assume is an empty ferry.
727, L1011, MD80, A300, 777-200, 737-300, 737-700, 747-400, 757-200, 737-800, A320. E190, E135, 767-200, CRJ9
 
wjcandee
Topic Author
Posts: 10279
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:40 pm

Good news: While most of the WGN MD11s traveled to and parked at RSW and SHV around Christmas, 581JN and 799JN soldier on for FedEx, and N542KD jumped right back on LAX-Asia routes.

Predictable news: N542KD diverted back to ANC about 2 hours into its journey from ANC-ICN this morning and is still there. Must be no fun to be in the inhospitable area that they were and to have an emergency requiring a diversion.
 
CX747
Posts: 6571
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:54 am

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 31, 2020 8:35 pm

wjcandee wrote:
Good news: While most of the WGN MD11s traveled to and parked at RSW and SHV around Christmas, 581JN and 799JN soldier on for FedEx, and N542KD jumped right back on LAX-Asia routes.

Predictable news: N542KD diverted back to ANC about 2 hours into its journey from ANC-ICN this morning and is still there. Must be no fun to be in the inhospitable area that they were and to have an emergency requiring a diversion.


As Gann informed us, "Fate is the Hunter".
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
wjcandee
Topic Author
Posts: 10279
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:36 pm

CX747 wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
Good news: While most of the WGN MD11s traveled to and parked at RSW and SHV around Christmas, 581JN and 799JN soldier on for FedEx, and N542KD jumped right back on LAX-Asia routes.

Predictable news: N542KD diverted back to ANC about 2 hours into its journey from ANC-ICN this morning and is still there. Must be no fun to be in the inhospitable area that they were and to have an emergency requiring a diversion.


As Gann informed us, "Fate is the Hunter".


True that. A book that all aviation fans should read, by the way. (And not the movie, whose plot has zero to do with the book.)
 
CX747
Posts: 6571
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:54 am

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:50 pm

flyguy1 wrote:
CX747 wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
GDavis003: Nice review! Great that 729CA finally got to the test-flight stage.

I have no clue what the significance is of BNA as a destination. I whomever it was needed a planeload of stuff from China.

The LAX-DWC flight was interesting, too; doesn't look like a ferry, but at 15.5 hours, it would seem like you'd see some capacity limitations.


As you are well aware, it all depends upon the weight of the cargo. LAX-DWC is a haul that shows you a wonderful view over the glare shield. The US, Canada, Atlantic Crossing, UK, Europe, Med Sea, Middle East. Yes, I will bid that!!!


Picked up another interesting National flight-JFK-UAM! That’s a hell of a long flight, clocking in at almost 17 hours! Aircraft came in earlier to JFK from XMN, via AMC. N952CA, performing what I assume is an empty ferry.


JFK to Andersen is a heck of a trek. Would be interesting to see if there was cargo. It again shows the tremendous capabilities of the 747-400.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
wjcandee
Topic Author
Posts: 10279
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Fri Jan 01, 2021 3:27 am

Just as a coda to the discussions about Christmas shipments by USPS. I had a smallish box (shoebox size) coming from New Hampshire. The origin city is about 250 road-miles North of me. About a 4-ish hour drive.

The shipper handed it over the counter at 2pm on Dec. 21, sending it Priority Mail 2-day with a computer-printed barcoded label. USPS dutifully showed it having departed the post office that afternoon. Then nada.

When it didn't arrive as planned on the 23rd, I figured no big deal. No scans, even, however, on the 23rd or 24th. Just "in transit". And the days ticked on. So finally, on the 29th, fully eight days from the date of shipment, it was scanned as having arrived at the USPS distribution complex in Nashville, TN.

That's about 885 road-miles Southwest of me.

Since I'm in NYC, the thing drove the 225 miles South from New Hampshire, and kept on going right past me another 884 miles all the way to Nashville.

Now nothing. No indication of departure from Nashville.

So, 10 days after shipment, it's almost 900 miles away. Almost 4 times as far away, in fact, than when it started its "two day" journey.

It's not the end of the world. It will get here when it gets here. Mistakes happen. But it is an indication of how swamped that the USPS still is, apparently, that my package hasn't moved from the wrong destination in two days. Glad it was for me and not a present for somebody else!
 
amdiesen
Posts: 189
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:27 pm

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:24 am

wjcandee wrote:
Trying to hurt the USPS...

Macro: Agreed; respectfully interpreting the theme/intent to mean that a self sustaining, non-profit GSE (USPS) is in the best interest of all stake-holders.
Micro: It's a great option for individuals that can't get volume pricing from package carriers and simply want to send little Johnny a Christmas gift or Mr Candee seeking well earned retail therapy after another challenging peak.

wjcandee wrote:
...it is an indication of how swamped that the USPS still is...

thank you

The two significant macro events this peak are:
1) COVID: a). disrupted belly freight capacity; b). customer behavior shifted to online/delivery
2) Amazon: a). USPS executed an Amazon contract; b). FedEx executed customer deliveries, having chosen not to renew, without its Amazon contract

datum: it is cheaper to pay for shipping a small package from Shanghai to grandma's house than it is to pay for shipping the same volume/weight small package from one county/township to the next(neighboring). Carrier cost of shipping/delivering the two examples is arguably different.

for reflection and thought
Thesis: The Amazon/USPS contract is toxic as it is subsidized and displaces packages shipped at posted rates. Further, the contract moves the heavily indebted USPS further into the hole / further away from self sustaining.

FedEx and UPS do not wish to deliver Amazon packages at cost during peak. Nor do they wish to give Amazon priority over profitable customer relationships.

Available lift was tight this year. On a micro level: N729CA, one of five globally 'parked' b744*fs, was diligently monitored anticipating movement. It is one of several, cite elbow bumping a light post with a 747, inevitable mis-steps in executing time sensitive complexity under pressure.
...fellow ANutters, on the basis that the macro flew over your head, your swatting at flies and swallowing camels
puzzling over:
1) proper amortization of long-lived assets where costs and revenue are complex, in a technologically evolving environment.
2) the economics of gate real estate
 
amdiesen
Posts: 189
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:27 pm

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Fri Jan 01, 2021 6:03 am

Global Lift at the close of Peak

b748f = 95, parked: 2, onOrder: 8
b744f = 157,
b744*cf = 53, parked: 6
b772f = 197, onOrder: ~45
md11f = 116
b763f = ~304, onOrder: ~45
b762f = ~56
a333cf = ~7
a332cf = 41
a306*f = ~166

tenative VLA changes in ownership: 2 Saudia 748fs, 1 Etihad/Fedex 777f, 6 Lufthansa md11fs. In 2021; new b748fs, b772fs, b763fs, and newly converted b763cfs & a333cfs will serve replacement and growth roles. While aged b744*cfs, md11fs, b762cfs and a306*fs, facing heavy checks, will meet an inflection decision.
puzzling over:
1) proper amortization of long-lived assets where costs and revenue are complex, in a technologically evolving environment.
2) the economics of gate real estate
 
GSOtoIND
Posts: 155
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:46 pm

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Fri Jan 01, 2021 7:02 am

amdiesen wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
Trying to hurt the USPS...

Macro: Agreed; respectfully interpreting the theme/intent to mean that a self sustaining, non-profit GSE (USPS) is in the best interest of all stake-holders.
Micro: It's a great option for individuals that can't get volume pricing from package carriers and simply want to send little Johnny a Christmas gift or Mr Candee seeking well earned retail therapy after another challenging peak.

wjcandee wrote:
...it is an indication of how swamped that the USPS still is...

thank you

The two significant macro events this peak are:
1) COVID: a). disrupted belly freight capacity; b). customer behavior shifted to online/delivery
2) Amazon: a). USPS executed an Amazon contract; b). FedEx executed customer deliveries, having chosen not to renew, without its Amazon contract

datum: it is cheaper to pay for shipping a small package from Shanghai to grandma's house than it is to pay for shipping the same volume/weight small package from one county/township to the next(neighboring). Carrier cost of shipping/delivering the two examples is arguably different.

for reflection and thought
Thesis: The Amazon/USPS contract is toxic as it is subsidized and displaces packages shipped at posted rates. Further, the contract moves the heavily indebted USPS further into the hole / further away from self sustaining.

FedEx and UPS do not wish to deliver Amazon packages at cost during peak. Nor do they wish to give Amazon priority over profitable customer relationships.

Available lift was tight this year. On a micro level: N729CA, one of five globally 'parked' b744*fs, was diligently monitored anticipating movement. It is one of several, cite elbow bumping a light post with a 747, inevitable mis-steps in executing time sensitive complexity under pressure.
...fellow ANutters, on the basis that the macro flew over your head, your swatting at flies and swallowing camels

I don't think the Amazon business is directly related to the USPS's Christmas meltdown. Most of that stuff is being delivered to the local post offices, bypassing the DCs and annexes that have been the real problem. There certainly is an argument, however, that the Amazon work meant resources were allocated to the local post offices that could've been more useful somewhere else.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4734
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Fri Jan 01, 2021 3:01 pm

I remember reading The Power of Productivity, a McKinsey. It is written the the heydays of Walmart, and he dedicated a chapter to the company. What he said stuck with me, and has served me well in my thinking. Walmart was a huge success, but competitors learn to compete. He went further and said that effective competition was even then observable. Walmart remains formidable, but along with others.

Amazon has been an even bigger success, but it has competitors and they will learn to compete. Most of us are expecting UPS or FedEx to step up and offering sellers competitive shipping. We were expecting eBay to do the same for small sellers. Thus far they have not. If they don't learn in the next year or so expect someone else to appear.

An easiest pathway may be to allow the USPS to actually compete, congress and some presidents have deliberately tied its hands. But that everyday delivery is its strong point, to almost every address in the US, and offered as a constitutional service is also formidable. ANY national delivery system can take advantage of that.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
gdavis003
Posts: 865
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:59 am

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Sat Jan 02, 2021 2:15 am

I wish there was a video, but I did some digging for some footage of our favorite DC-8 at Princess Juliana and came across this today on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/p/CJdvVCNMkAW ... b0ce3ibap5

Wish I could stand on the beach and watch that one land
 
wjcandee
Topic Author
Posts: 10279
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Sat Jan 02, 2021 5:57 am

gdavis003 wrote:
I wish there was a video, but I did some digging for some footage of our favorite DC-8 at Princess Juliana and came across this today on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/p/CJdvVCNMkAW ... b0ce3ibap5

Wish I could stand on the beach and watch that one land


Great Job! I can never figure out how to make the Instagram photos bigger, but he has them on his facebook page, too. You're right, it would have been cooler watching it arrive from the Beach!!
 
code176
Posts: 11
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2005 8:33 am

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Sat Jan 02, 2021 6:47 am

Well, there's at least a takeoff video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVKL0zPEq3s
 
wjcandee
Topic Author
Posts: 10279
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Peak Season 2020 Cargo/Express Discussion Thread

Sat Jan 02, 2021 9:38 am

code176 wrote:
Well, there's at least a takeoff video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVKL0zPEq3s


Fantastic! Looks a little cross-windy...

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