Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
777ER
Head Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 10134
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2003 5:04 pm

New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Tue Dec 01, 2020 9:20 am

Welcome to the Christmas 2020 edition. Link to November 2020 viewtopic.php?p=22534587#p22534587

Merry Christmas
Head Forum Moderator
[email protected]
Flown: 1900D,S340,Q300,AT72-5/6,DC3,CR2/7,E145,E70/75/90,A319/20/21,A332/3,A359,A380,F100,B717,B733/4/8/9,B742/4,B752/3,B763,B772/3, B789
With: NZ,SJ,QF,JQ,EK,VA,AA,UA,DL,FL,AC,FJ,SQ,TG,PR
 
User avatar
Zkpilot
Posts: 4574
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Wed Dec 02, 2020 1:30 am

Zkpilot wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
With 787-10s on order, and a vastly under-utilised 789 fleet for the foreseeable future, I find it almost impossible to believe that the 77Ws will ever see service again with NZ. I’m not even convinced they will need all the 789s for some years.


Roughly what is the hit from not returning these aircraft to service - they would have to sell the owned 77W aircraft that need to be disposed of - and what would it cost them to exit the existing leases? Are we able to quantify this? Seems like a hell of a waste.

787-10 order - is it confirmed and on track or deferred? There has been little news of this order since it was first announced with much fanfare and hints of a performance improvement package for the 787-9 and 10 to slightly improve the range / payload capability of both frames. I am wondering if the 787-9 improvements constitute the software changes which UA are rolling out on their latest 787-9 aircraft that will be performing some particularly challenging missions - such as SFO-BLR.

7810 has been deferred by 3 years I believe.

That is incorrect.

If you reference both the FY19 and FY20 annual results, you'll see no deferrals have occurred for 787 frames (they have for other machines).

The next 787 (already reflected in the Boeing order books as being changed to a 787-9), is on order for FY23 which is the second half of calendar year 2022.

This topic was discussed at the annual results. Depending on the recovery in various markets, the 787 orders can be used to supplement exisiting frames (the current 787 and 77W fleet) or, if International recovery is slower, effectively replace the 77W (if that better fits with the demand profile across the network). Jeff McDowall stressed flexibility was key as no one yet knows what things in the future will look like.”

The 7810s were supposed to be arriving earlier than that so yes they have been deferred. If some have been converted to 789s then that is also deferring the 7810 order at least in terms of their arrival into the fleet.
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
GW54
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 3:05 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:44 am

It would seem that almost all Air NZ A320's and A321's are now active including the regional A320ceo's. The exceptions seem to be OAB (Black livery) A320neo NHB and A321neo NND. OAB and NHB have flown in the last month but NNC seems to have been out of service since Sept. Is NND in 'deep' storage? Hasn't been around long enough for a extended hangar visit I would have thought.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7807
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:59 am

Zkpilot wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
With 787-10s on order, and a vastly under-utilised 789 fleet for the foreseeable future, I find it almost impossible to believe that the 77Ws will ever see service again with NZ. I’m not even convinced they will need all the 789s for some years.


Roughly what is the hit from not returning these aircraft to service - they would have to sell the owned 77W aircraft that need to be disposed of - and what would it cost them to exit the existing leases? Are we able to quantify this? Seems like a hell of a waste.

787-10 order - is it confirmed and on track or deferred? There has been little news of this order since it was first announced with much fanfare and hints of a performance improvement package for the 787-9 and 10 to slightly improve the range / payload capability of both frames. I am wondering if the 787-9 improvements constitute the software changes which UA are rolling out on their latest 787-9 aircraft that will be performing some particularly challenging missions - such as SFO-BLR.

7810 has been deferred by 3 years I believe.

That is incorrect.

If you reference both the FY19 and FY20 annual results, you'll see no deferrals have occurred for 787 frames (they have for other machines).

The next 787 (already reflected in the Boeing order books as being changed to a 787-9), is on order for FY23 which is the second half of calendar year 2022.,
This topic was discussed at the annual results. Depending on the recovery in various markets, the 787 orders can be used to supplement exisiting frames (the current 787 and 77W fleet) or, if International recovery is slower, effectively replace the 77W (if that better fits with the demand profile across the network). Jeff McDowall stressed flexibility was key as no one yet knows what things in the future will look like.”

The 7810s were supposed to be arriving earlier than that so yes they have been deferred. If some have been converted to 789s then that is also deferring the 7810 order at least in terms of their arrival into the fleet.


Re the 77W OKR and OKS, can we confirm that these have been returned to the lessors? OKM has gone to VCV last week, OKQ was meant to go to the desert but is still in AKL after a 789 hit it causing some damage, I believe it has been repaired. Not sure on the third leased one think OKN or OKO? They are probably happy to hold on to the owned 77Ws for now incase they are needed in future and currently they aren't worth anything, P2F on the 77W has plenty of stock and the first delivery isn't until 2023, in the mean time some Freight operators are looking at converting 744s which hasn't been done in a few years.

Yes its a hell of a waste but what are airlines meant to do? Cash is key and paying leases on aeroplanes that won't be used for several years isn't viable in most cases.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1805
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Sun Dec 06, 2020 7:57 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
With 787-10s on order, and a vastly under-utilised 789 fleet for the foreseeable future, I find it almost impossible to believe that the 77Ws will ever see service again with NZ. I’m not even convinced they will need all the 789s for some years.


Roughly what is the hit from not returning these aircraft to service - they would have to sell the owned 77W aircraft that need to be disposed of - and what would it cost them to exit the existing leases? Are we able to quantify this? Seems like a hell of a waste.

787-10 order - is it confirmed and on track or deferred? There has been little news of this order since it was first announced with much fanfare and hints of a performance improvement package for the 787-9 and 10 to slightly improve the range / payload capability of both frames. I am wondering if the 787-9 improvements constitute the software changes which UA are rolling out on their latest 787-9 aircraft that will be performing some particularly challenging missions - such as SFO-BLR.

7810 has been deferred by 3 years I believe.

That is incorrect.

If you reference both the FY19 and FY20 annual results, you'll see no deferrals have occurred for 787 frames (they have for other machines).

The next 787 (already reflected in the Boeing order books as being changed to a 787-9), is on order for FY23 which is the second half of calendar year 2022.,
This topic was discussed at the annual results. Depending on the recovery in various markets, the 787 orders can be used to supplement exisiting frames (the current 787 and 77W fleet) or, if International recovery is slower, effectively replace the 77W (if that better fits with the demand profile across the network). Jeff McDowall stressed flexibility was key as no one yet knows what things in the future will look like.”

The 7810s were supposed to be arriving earlier than that so yes they have been deferred. If some have been converted to 789s then that is also deferring the 7810 order at least in terms of their arrival into the fleet.


Re the 77W OKR and OKS, can we confirm that these have been returned to the lessors? OKM has gone to VCV last week, OKQ was meant to go to the desert but is still in AKL after a 789 hit it causing some damage, I believe it has been repaired. Not sure on the third leased one think OKN or OKO? They are probably happy to hold on to the owned 77Ws for now incase they are needed in future and currently they aren't worth anything, P2F on the 77W has plenty of stock and the first delivery isn't until 2023, in the mean time some Freight operators are looking at converting 744s which hasn't been done in a few years.

Yes its a hell of a waste but what are airlines meant to do? Cash is key and paying leases on aeroplanes that won't be used for several years isn't viable in most cases.


The aircraft are also just as useless to the lessor as they are to the lessee.

It's predicted international air travel globally will slowly increase throughout 2021, Alan Joyce is standing by his July comment he made at the FY20 annual results presentation.

NZ's concern (the country) is how long we keep the door shut. Surely come mid year, we can have more movement, vaccination passports, safe travel zones etc. But will we?

Looking longer term, tourism will recover and rebuild. In fact within the decade it's anticipated to grow and exceed 2019 numbers in the predictions of some 'experts'. The big unknown is what that recovery curve looks like. NZ (the airline) is expecting it to be slow initially but by the NW22/23.. they should or hopefully will be a long way down the rebuild path.

While the when for some route returns it not known, and while it may be some time beyond any reopening of the borders in some cases, the only route that's been cancelled is EZE.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7807
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:13 pm

NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:

The 7810s were supposed to be arriving earlier than that so yes they have been deferred. If some have been converted to 789s then that is also deferring the 7810 order at least in terms of their arrival into the fleet.


Re the 77W OKR and OKS, can we confirm that these have been returned to the lessors? OKM has gone to VCV last week, OKQ was meant to go to the desert but is still in AKL after a 789 hit it causing some damage, I believe it has been repaired. Not sure on the third leased one think OKN or OKO? They are probably happy to hold on to the owned 77Ws for now incase they are needed in future and currently they aren't worth anything, P2F on the 77W has plenty of stock and the first delivery isn't until 2023, in the mean time some Freight operators are looking at converting 744s which hasn't been done in a few years.

Yes its a hell of a waste but what are airlines meant to do? Cash is key and paying leases on aeroplanes that won't be used for several years isn't viable in most cases.


The aircraft are also just as useless to the lessor as they are to the lessee.

It's predicted international air travel globally will slowly increase throughout 2021, Alan Joyce is standing by his July comment he made at the FY20 annual results presentation.

NZ's concern (the country) is how long we keep the door shut. Surely come mid year, we can have more movement, vaccination passports, safe travel zones etc. But will we?

Looking longer term, tourism will recover and rebuild. In fact within the decade it's anticipated to grow and exceed 2019 numbers in the predictions of some 'experts'. The big unknown is what that recovery curve looks like. NZ (the airline) is expecting it to be slow initially but by the NW22/23.. they should or hopefully will be a long way down the rebuild path.

While the when for some route returns it not known, and while it may be some time beyond any reopening of the borders in some cases, the only route that's been cancelled is EZE.


Sure the aircraft are just as useless to the lessor, some aircraft would have had early exit options which I had thought was the case with OKR and OKS? 12 year lease from 2014 with an option to exit after 6 years?

I’m reluctant to comment on when things will begin to pick up, we will see how good these vaccines are and how prepared NZ is as a country to open up in time.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1805
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:26 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

Re the 77W OKR and OKS, can we confirm that these have been returned to the lessors? OKM has gone to VCV last week, OKQ was meant to go to the desert but is still in AKL after a 789 hit it causing some damage, I believe it has been repaired. Not sure on the third leased one think OKN or OKO? They are probably happy to hold on to the owned 77Ws for now incase they are needed in future and currently they aren't worth anything, P2F on the 77W has plenty of stock and the first delivery isn't until 2023, in the mean time some Freight operators are looking at converting 744s which hasn't been done in a few years.

Yes its a hell of a waste but what are airlines meant to do? Cash is key and paying leases on aeroplanes that won't be used for several years isn't viable in most cases.


The aircraft are also just as useless to the lessor as they are to the lessee.

It's predicted international air travel globally will slowly increase throughout 2021, Alan Joyce is standing by his July comment he made at the FY20 annual results presentation.

NZ's concern (the country) is how long we keep the door shut. Surely come mid year, we can have more movement, vaccination passports, safe travel zones etc. But will we?

Looking longer term, tourism will recover and rebuild. In fact within the decade it's anticipated to grow and exceed 2019 numbers in the predictions of some 'experts'. The big unknown is what that recovery curve looks like. NZ (the airline) is expecting it to be slow initially but by the NW22/23.. they should or hopefully will be a long way down the rebuild path.

While the when for some route returns it not known, and while it may be some time beyond any reopening of the borders in some cases, the only route that's been cancelled is EZE.


Sure the aircraft are just as useless to the lessor, some aircraft would have had early exit options which I had thought was the case with OKR and OKS? 12 year lease from 2014 with an option to exit after 6 years?

I’m reluctant to comment on when things will begin to pick up, we will see how good these vaccines are and how prepared NZ is as a country to open up in time.


Those two comments are interconnected though, I guess you're indirectly holding a view on "when things will pick up" by looking at offloading some or all 77Ws?

I'm not suggesting they should or are being kept either.

There's just a massive over supply of mid aged 777's out there. Their value for the owner has bottomed out completely. Could it be in their interests to work with airlines who may still find a need for them in years to come.

To keep it super simple.

NZ has essentially halved it's long-haul fleet. Let's say it's 14 frames. Not that all 14 are actually needed it's just the 789 fleet. Over the coming years as routes return and capacity builds the airline will know, they need 14 this year, 16 next 18 the following and so on. This is very normal and makes normal discussion around the end of year results as they forecast growth in years ahead.

For NZ though, they know they've got frames entering the fleet down the track with the 772 replacement.

So how does that fit into this forecast and for the executive team. When do they envisage a need for 30 frames again and how are they positioned to go to market several years prior to this like they were planning to pre COVID.

There's a lot to consider including the ability & experience to grow using these frames as well as airline debt.

Do we, in fact see NZ only grow back to 20 long-haul frames over the net 10-15 years. Exit some developing routes and focus on legacy core pacific hubs LAX/SIN/HKG/TYO etc. Which will drive up airfares.

So many unknowns and no blueprint to follow.

However my personal view is; parts of the world are seeing a strong depend for air travel, look at the US and parts of Europe for example. Domestic NZ travel is strong. You could look at where the economy is at vs what was expected to happen. There are signs of out there that a strong recovery could still occur, even if it's a slow start.
 
User avatar
Zkpilot
Posts: 4574
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Mon Dec 07, 2020 3:28 am

NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

The aircraft are also just as useless to the lessor as they are to the lessee.

It's predicted international air travel globally will slowly increase throughout 2021, Alan Joyce is standing by his July comment he made at the FY20 annual results presentation.

NZ's concern (the country) is how long we keep the door shut. Surely come mid year, we can have more movement, vaccination passports, safe travel zones etc. But will we?

Looking longer term, tourism will recover and rebuild. In fact within the decade it's anticipated to grow and exceed 2019 numbers in the predictions of some 'experts'. The big unknown is what that recovery curve looks like. NZ (the airline) is expecting it to be slow initially but by the NW22/23.. they should or hopefully will be a long way down the rebuild path.

While the when for some route returns it not known, and while it may be some time beyond any reopening of the borders in some cases, the only route that's been cancelled is EZE.


Sure the aircraft are just as useless to the lessor, some aircraft would have had early exit options which I had thought was the case with OKR and OKS? 12 year lease from 2014 with an option to exit after 6 years?

I’m reluctant to comment on when things will begin to pick up, we will see how good these vaccines are and how prepared NZ is as a country to open up in time.


Those two comments are interconnected though, I guess you're indirectly holding a view on "when things will pick up" by looking at offloading some or all 77Ws?

I'm not suggesting they should or are being kept either.

There's just a massive over supply of mid aged 777's out there. Their value for the owner has bottomed out completely. Could it be in their interests to work with airlines who may still find a need for them in years to come.

To keep it super simple.

NZ has essentially halved it's long-haul fleet. Let's say it's 14 frames. Not that all 14 are actually needed it's just the 789 fleet. Over the coming years as routes return and capacity builds the airline will know, they need 14 this year, 16 next 18 the following and so on. This is very normal and makes normal discussion around the end of year results as they forecast growth in years ahead.

For NZ though, they know they've got frames entering the fleet down the track with the 772 replacement.

So how does that fit into this forecast and for the executive team. When do they envisage a need for 30 frames again and how are they positioned to go to market several years prior to this like they were planning to pre COVID.

There's a lot to consider including the ability & experience to grow using these frames as well as airline debt.

Do we, in fact see NZ only grow back to 20 long-haul frames over the net 10-15 years. Exit some developing routes and focus on legacy core pacific hubs LAX/SIN/HKG/TYO etc. Which will drive up airfares.

So many unknowns and no blueprint to follow.

However my personal view is; parts of the world are seeing a strong depend for air travel, look at the US and parts of Europe for example. Domestic NZ travel is strong. You could look at where the economy is at vs what was expected to happen. There are signs of out there that a strong recovery could still occur, even if it's a slow start.

I think NZ would be silly to scrap the 77Ws now when they have little value to be gained from doing so but a whole lot of downside in the event that aviation bounces back (remembering they’ve already cut 8x 77E), also it was only last year that they needed the 777 fleet to cover for the 787 fleet problems.
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7807
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Mon Dec 07, 2020 5:44 am

NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

The aircraft are also just as useless to the lessor as they are to the lessee.

It's predicted international air travel globally will slowly increase throughout 2021, Alan Joyce is standing by his July comment he made at the FY20 annual results presentation.

NZ's concern (the country) is how long we keep the door shut. Surely come mid year, we can have more movement, vaccination passports, safe travel zones etc. But will we?

Looking longer term, tourism will recover and rebuild. In fact within the decade it's anticipated to grow and exceed 2019 numbers in the predictions of some 'experts'. The big unknown is what that recovery curve looks like. NZ (the airline) is expecting it to be slow initially but by the NW22/23.. they should or hopefully will be a long way down the rebuild path.

While the when for some route returns it not known, and while it may be some time beyond any reopening of the borders in some cases, the only route that's been cancelled is EZE.


Sure the aircraft are just as useless to the lessor, some aircraft would have had early exit options which I had thought was the case with OKR and OKS? 12 year lease from 2014 with an option to exit after 6 years?

I’m reluctant to comment on when things will begin to pick up, we will see how good these vaccines are and how prepared NZ is as a country to open up in time.


Those two comments are interconnected though, I guess you're indirectly holding a view on "when things will pick up" by looking at offloading some or all 77Ws?

I'm not suggesting they should or are being kept either.

There's just a massive over supply of mid aged 777's out there. Their value for the owner has bottomed out completely. Could it be in their interests to work with airlines who may still find a need for them in years to come.

To keep it super simple.

NZ has essentially halved it's long-haul fleet. Let's say it's 14 frames. Not that all 14 are actually needed it's just the 789 fleet. Over the coming years as routes return and capacity builds the airline will know, they need 14 this year, 16 next 18 the following and so on. This is very normal and makes normal discussion around the end of year results as they forecast growth in years ahead.

For NZ though, they know they've got frames entering the fleet down the track with the 772 replacement.

So how does that fit into this forecast and for the executive team. When do they envisage a need for 30 frames again and how are they positioned to go to market several years prior to this like they were planning to pre COVID.

There's a lot to consider including the ability & experience to grow using these frames as well as airline debt.

Do we, in fact see NZ only grow back to 20 long-haul frames over the net 10-15 years. Exit some developing routes and focus on legacy core pacific hubs LAX/SIN/HKG/TYO etc. Which will drive up airfares.

So many unknowns and no blueprint to follow.

However my personal view is; parts of the world are seeing a strong depend for air travel, look at the US and parts of Europe for example. Domestic NZ travel is strong. You could look at where the economy is at vs what was expected to happen. There are signs of out there that a strong recovery could still occur, even if it's a slow start.


I agree there is s massive over supply of mid aged 777s, atleast the 77W has a freighter conversion coming.

With 14 789s and then 8 781s, some converted to 789, 22 of the same type will give more efficiency. Who knows what the future will look like, yes keep the 4 owned 77Ws for now at least. If the 781 is arriving as planned at this stage though who knows weather the 77W would be needed. I agree is a total unknown at this stage.
 
zkncj
Posts: 4167
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Mon Dec 07, 2020 6:21 am

GW54 wrote:
It would seem that almost all Air NZ A320's and A321's are now active including the regional A320ceo's. The exceptions seem to be OAB (Black livery) A320neo NHB and A321neo NND. OAB and NHB have flown in the last month but NNC seems to have been out of service since Sept. Is NND in 'deep' storage? Hasn't been around long enough for a extended hangar visit I would have thought.


The A321NEO's are now an staple of the December/January schedule for AKL-WLG/CHC, over the next week most of the AKL-WLG flights are now operated by A321NEO's.

Now to see if JQ sends some A321CEO's over durring the summer period to hit back.
 
mrkerr7474
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed Dec 23, 2009 7:55 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Mon Dec 07, 2020 7:35 am

zkncj wrote:
GW54 wrote:
It would seem that almost all Air NZ A320's and A321's are now active including the regional A320ceo's. The exceptions seem to be OAB (Black livery) A320neo NHB and A321neo NND. OAB and NHB have flown in the last month but NNC seems to have been out of service since Sept. Is NND in 'deep' storage? Hasn't been around long enough for a extended hangar visit I would have thought.


The A321NEO's are now an staple of the December/January schedule for AKL-WLG/CHC, over the next week most of the AKL-WLG flights are now operated by A321NEO's.

Now to see if JQ sends some A321CEO's over durring the summer period to hit back.


I'm not too sure if they would but that would definitely be neat seeing some flying around the place as a bit of a change wth lack of other types / airlines just now especially in WLG
 
NZ516
Posts: 599
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Mon Dec 07, 2020 11:52 pm

GW54 wrote:
It would seem that almost all Air NZ A320's and A321's are now active including the regional A320ceo's. The exceptions seem to be OAB (Black livery) A320neo NHB and A321neo NND. OAB and NHB have flown in the last month but NNC seems to have been out of service since Sept. Is NND in 'deep' storage? Hasn't been around long enough for a extended hangar visit I would have thought.


NND might be under repairs in AKL as has not flown for 3 months. OAB is in CHC outside for long storage with red engine and wheel covers on it.
NNC is active today. NHB is in AKL it last flew two weeks ago.
 
NZ516
Posts: 599
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Tue Dec 08, 2020 12:01 am

NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:

The 7810s were supposed to be arriving earlier than that so yes they have been deferred. If some have been converted to 789s then that is also deferring the 7810 order at least in terms of their arrival into the fleet.


Re the 77W OKR and OKS, can we confirm that these have been returned to the lessors? OKM has gone to VCV last week, OKQ was meant to go to the desert but is still in AKL after a 789 hit it causing some damage, I believe it has been repaired. Not sure on the third leased one think OKN or OKO? They are probably happy to hold on to the owned 77Ws for now incase they are needed in future and currently they aren't worth anything, P2F on the 77W has plenty of stock and the first delivery isn't until 2023, in the mean time some Freight operators are looking at converting 744s which hasn't been done in a few years.

Yes its a hell of a waste but what are airlines meant to do? Cash is key and paying leases on aeroplanes that won't be used for several years isn't viable in most cases.


The aircraft are also just as useless to the lessor as they are to the lessee.

It's predicted international air travel globally will slowly increase throughout 2021, Alan Joyce is standing by his July comment he made at the FY20 annual results presentation.

NZ's concern (the country) is how long we keep the door shut. Surely come mid year, we can have more movement, vaccination passports, safe travel zones etc. But will we?

Looking longer term, tourism will recover and rebuild. In fact within the decade it's anticipated to grow and exceed 2019 numbers in the predictions of some 'experts'. The big unknown is what that recovery curve looks like. NZ (the airline) is expecting it to be slow initially but by the NW22/23.. they should or hopefully will be a long way down the rebuild path.

While the when for some route returns it not known, and while it may be some time beyond any reopening of the borders in some cases, the only route that's been cancelled is EZE.


Along with EZE cut we also lost LHR. But we don't know what next year will be like. For 2021 Air NZ might even return to Vietnam as it seems a safer destination Covid wise for Kiwis to holiday in than many others in the region. Similar to what Qantas is looking at to open up their long haul flying to new markets.
 
NZ516
Posts: 599
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Tue Dec 08, 2020 12:10 am

A bit of recent good news hopefully 2021 is better than 2020.

Air NZ unveils $49 New Year flights to meet holiday demand

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/air ... 2EFSCISCY/

Air New Zealand adds Airbus A321 on more domestic routes for Christmas

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/air ... 3MO4DEI4U/
 
zkncj
Posts: 4167
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:35 am

NZ516 wrote:
GW54 wrote:
It would seem that almost all Air NZ A320's and A321's are now active including the regional A320ceo's. The exceptions seem to be OAB (Black livery) A320neo NHB and A321neo NND. OAB and NHB have flown in the last month but NNC seems to have been out of service since Sept. Is NND in 'deep' storage? Hasn't been around long enough for a extended hangar visit I would have thought.


NND might be under repairs in AKL as has not flown for 3 months. OAB is in CHC outside for long storage with red engine and wheel covers on it.
NNC is active today. NHB is in AKL it last flew two weeks ago.


OAB is one of the 4 leased domestic a320s, which were all due to be replaced by a321NEO in the next year or two.

Will be one to watch, to see if it enters back into service or of if it’s returned to the lessor earlier.

Did the domestic 321NEO deliveries for 2021, get deferred yet?

Once the Pacific/Australia opens back up, I can see the a321NEO being an key part of the fleet in the next 5 years with short-haul being the main market.

Just someone at NZ really needs to put either J or PE on the a321NEO’s.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7807
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Tue Dec 08, 2020 6:02 am

zkncj wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
GW54 wrote:
It would seem that almost all Air NZ A320's and A321's are now active including the regional A320ceo's. The exceptions seem to be OAB (Black livery) A320neo NHB and A321neo NND. OAB and NHB have flown in the last month but NNC seems to have been out of service since Sept. Is NND in 'deep' storage? Hasn't been around long enough for a extended hangar visit I would have thought.


NND might be under repairs in AKL as has not flown for 3 months. OAB is in CHC outside for long storage with red engine and wheel covers on it.
NNC is active today. NHB is in AKL it last flew two weeks ago.


OAB is one of the 4 leased domestic a320s, which were all due to be replaced by a321NEO in the next year or two.

Will be one to watch, to see if it enters back into service or of if it’s returned to the lessor earlier.

Did the domestic 321NEO deliveries for 2021, get deferred yet?

Once the Pacific/Australia opens back up, I can see the a321NEO being an key part of the fleet in the next 5 years with short-haul being the main market.

Just someone at NZ really needs to put either J or PE on the a321NEO’s.



Pretty sure the domestic A321s have been deferred?

While the A321s probably will play a reasonably key part in the rebuilding of the short haul network I would also think overall frequency will take some time to build back to what it was, SYD won't be 5-6 daily for some time, but maybe say 3 daily with atleast 1 widebody for J pax and freight, International connections not so much for some time I wouldn't think. Adding J to the A321 to me would seem like an added cost that could be done without and not needed anyway.
 
PA515
Posts: 1652
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Tue Dec 08, 2020 6:55 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Pretty sure the domestic A321s have been deferred?

This is mentioned in '22. Commitments' on page 33 of the 2020 Annual Financial Results

In May 2020 the Group deferred the delivery of five A321 NEO aircraft from February 2021 to November 2021 to June 2022 to November 2023


https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... esults.pdf

And slightly related on page 26 '16. Lease Liabilities (continued)' is this.
Sale and leasebacks

During the year, four owned Airbus A320 aircraft were sold and leased back, with a gain of $3 million being recognised in the Statement of Financial Performance. Lease terms under this arrangement ranged from 15 to 26 months at fair market rentals with a weighted average discount rate of 2.4%. Cash outflows during the year as a result of this transaction were $5 million.

Such transactions are considered on an aircraft by aircraft basis as fleets near exit. This transaction was in preparation for the exit of the aircraft in the 2021 and 2022 financial years and provides certainty to the Group of the residual proceeds. No such transactions were entered into in the prior year.


I guess they could still bring the A321 NEO deliveries forward or extend the A320 leases if the market recovers better than was expected in May.

PA515
 
zkncj
Posts: 4167
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Tue Dec 08, 2020 7:06 am

PA515 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Pretty sure the domestic A321s have been deferred?

This is mentioned in '22. Commitments' on page 33 of the 2020 Annual Financial Results

In May 2020 the Group deferred the delivery of five A321 NEO aircraft from February 2021 to November 2021 to June 2022 to November 2023


https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... esults.pdf

And slightly related on page 26 '16. Lease Liabilities (continued)' is this.
Sale and leasebacks

During the year, four owned Airbus A320 aircraft were sold and leased back, with a gain of $3 million being recognised in the Statement of Financial Performance. Lease terms under this arrangement ranged from 15 to 26 months at fair market rentals with a weighted average discount rate of 2.4%. Cash outflows during the year as a result of this transaction were $5 million.

Such transactions are considered on an aircraft by aircraft basis as fleets near exit. This transaction was in preparation for the exit of the aircraft in the 2021 and 2022 financial years and provides certainty to the Group of the residual proceeds. No such transactions were entered into in the prior year.


I guess they could still bring the A321 NEO deliveries forward or extend the A320 leases if the market recovers better than was expected in May.

PA515


So not really that major of an deferral at this stage, by 2022 the a321NEO would been need back on the Tasman/Pacific (well hopefully Tasman/Pacific travel is allowed by mid 2022).

Wonder how much more cost effective the a321N are be coming on domestic, provided that they can fill them.

Surely operating an hourly 321N, at peak on AKL-WLG/CHC must work out better than half hourly a320CEO’s.

Would be an massive staffing cost cut.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7807
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Tue Dec 08, 2020 8:04 am

zkncj wrote:
PA515 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Pretty sure the domestic A321s have been deferred?

This is mentioned in '22. Commitments' on page 33 of the 2020 Annual Financial Results

In May 2020 the Group deferred the delivery of five A321 NEO aircraft from February 2021 to November 2021 to June 2022 to November 2023


https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... esults.pdf

And slightly related on page 26 '16. Lease Liabilities (continued)' is this.
Sale and leasebacks

During the year, four owned Airbus A320 aircraft were sold and leased back, with a gain of $3 million being recognised in the Statement of Financial Performance. Lease terms under this arrangement ranged from 15 to 26 months at fair market rentals with a weighted average discount rate of 2.4%. Cash outflows during the year as a result of this transaction were $5 million.

Such transactions are considered on an aircraft by aircraft basis as fleets near exit. This transaction was in preparation for the exit of the aircraft in the 2021 and 2022 financial years and provides certainty to the Group of the residual proceeds. No such transactions were entered into in the prior year.


I guess they could still bring the A321 NEO deliveries forward or extend the A320 leases if the market recovers better than was expected in May.

PA515


So not really that major of an deferral at this stage, by 2022 the a321NEO would been need back on the Tasman/Pacific (well hopefully Tasman/Pacific travel is allowed by mid 2022).

Wonder how much more cost effective the a321N are be coming on domestic, provided that they can fill them.

Surely operating an hourly 321N, at peak on AKL-WLG/CHC must work out better than half hourly a320CEO’s.

Would be an massive staffing cost cut.


So long as times are 'normal' I can't see them having a problem filling the A321s domestically, probably AKL-WLG/CHC in the peak 0700/0900 and 1600/1900 and some AKL-ZQN runs during the middle of the day mostly.

They would need an extra cabiin crew per flight on the A321 compared to the A320, I would think you would still need half hourly at times though even with the A321s.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1805
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Tue Dec 08, 2020 8:25 am

NZ516 wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

Re the 77W OKR and OKS, can we confirm that these have been returned to the lessors? OKM has gone to VCV last week, OKQ was meant to go to the desert but is still in AKL after a 789 hit it causing some damage, I believe it has been repaired. Not sure on the third leased one think OKN or OKO? They are probably happy to hold on to the owned 77Ws for now incase they are needed in future and currently they aren't worth anything, P2F on the 77W has plenty of stock and the first delivery isn't until 2023, in the mean time some Freight operators are looking at converting 744s which hasn't been done in a few years.

Yes its a hell of a waste but what are airlines meant to do? Cash is key and paying leases on aeroplanes that won't be used for several years isn't viable in most cases.


The aircraft are also just as useless to the lessor as they are to the lessee.

It's predicted international air travel globally will slowly increase throughout 2021, Alan Joyce is standing by his July comment he made at the FY20 annual results presentation.

NZ's concern (the country) is how long we keep the door shut. Surely come mid year, we can have more movement, vaccination passports, safe travel zones etc. But will we?

Looking longer term, tourism will recover and rebuild. In fact within the decade it's anticipated to grow and exceed 2019 numbers in the predictions of some 'experts'. The big unknown is what that recovery curve looks like. NZ (the airline) is expecting it to be slow initially but by the NW22/23.. they should or hopefully will be a long way down the rebuild path.

While the when for some route returns it not known, and while it may be some time beyond any reopening of the borders in some cases, the only route that's been cancelled is EZE.


Along with EZE cut we also lost LHR. But we don't know what next year will be like. For 2021 Air NZ might even return to Vietnam as it seems a safer destination Covid wise for Kiwis to holiday in than many others in the region. Similar to what Qantas is looking at to open up their long haul flying to new markets.


That was cut pre COVID and was not the reason why though. The date was just brought forward.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1805
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Tue Dec 08, 2020 8:28 am

zkncj wrote:
Wonder how much more cost effective the a321N are be coming on domestic, provided that they can fill them.

Surely operating an hourly 321N, at peak on AKL-WLG/CHC must work out better than half hourly a320CEO’s.

Would be an massive staffing cost cut.


The best "simple answer" I've had on this, it's the same but you have an extra 45 seats to sell.

Obviously it's not the same. But it was once explained this way. True or not.
 
PA515
Posts: 1652
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Tue Dec 08, 2020 9:42 pm

Ex Air NZ ATR 72-500 ZK-MCC (msn 714) presently CHC-AKL as NZ5982.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/zk-mcc

PA515
 
zkncj
Posts: 4167
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Fri Dec 11, 2020 8:02 pm

PA515 wrote:
Ex Air NZ ATR 72-500 ZK-MCC (msn 714) presently CHC-AKL as NZ5982.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/zk-mcc

PA515


Another one for 3C maybe? They are planning to exit all of the CV-580s by the end of 2021.
 
zkncj
Posts: 4167
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Fri Dec 11, 2020 8:42 pm

New Zealand and Cook Island bubble has been confirmed this morning.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/cook-islands-to-open-borders-to-kiwis-early-next-year-no-quarantine-required/5N3ZUPLQHGFLNJEMEV5SL2QTAA

No firm dates yet, just an within Q1 of 2021.

Will some very full services to RAR once that bubble opens.

Do wonder if it was just announced to try, move the media of pushing for an Tasman bubble before Christmas.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1805
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Fri Dec 11, 2020 10:07 pm

zkncj wrote:
New Zealand and Cook Island bubble has been confirmed this morning.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/cook-islands-to-open-borders-to-kiwis-early-next-year-no-quarantine-required/5N3ZUPLQHGFLNJEMEV5SL2QTAA

No firm dates yet, just an within Q1 of 2021.

Will some very full services to RAR once that bubble opens.

Do wonder if it was just announced to try, move the media of pushing for an Tasman bubble before Christmas.


It's pathetic isn't it.

Apart from very small "second wave" (which was quickly contained due to good contact tracing and public gathering limits) we've been COVID free for 7-8 months.

The best we can do is announce bubble free travel to a single isolated island nation with virtually no other air links. Very limited maritime links which has never seen a case of COVID and we promise this in Q1 next year.

QLD announced yesterday and technically started welcoming Kiwis with quarantine free travel as of this morning.

This should be setting off alarm bells for anyone expecting or hoping for an Australian bubble anytime soon.
 
zkncj
Posts: 4167
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Fri Dec 11, 2020 10:47 pm

NZ6 wrote:
The best we can do is announce bubble free travel to a single isolated island nation with virtually no other air links. Very limited maritime links which has never seen a case of COVID and we promise this in Q1 next year. .


To an Island Nation that effectively an self governing state of New Zealand.

It’s effectively an domestic flight, with customs.

Based on this I wouldn’t expect an Tasman bubble until the middle of 2021.
 
User avatar
SXI899
Posts: 250
Joined: Tue Jan 15, 2008 9:02 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Sat Dec 12, 2020 12:35 am

zkncj wrote:
PA515 wrote:
Ex Air NZ ATR 72-500 ZK-MCC (msn 714) presently CHC-AKL as NZ5982.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/zk-mcc

PA515


Another one for 3C maybe? They are planning to exit all of the CV-580s by the end of 2021.

Unfortunately not.
MCC heads off to France tomorrow.
We deliver......
 
PA515
Posts: 1652
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Sun Dec 13, 2020 5:45 am

SXI899 wrote:
MCC heads off to France tomorrow.

ZK-MCC departed AKL for BNE at 1754 as SXI2063. Unusual departure time for a ferry flight.

https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/ZKMCC

PA515
 
zkncj
Posts: 4167
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:51 am

PA515 wrote:
SXI899 wrote:
MCC heads off to France tomorrow.

ZK-MCC departed AKL for BNE at 1754 as SXI2063. Unusual departure time for a ferry flight.

https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/ZKMCC

PA515


Lack of HR radio? NZ113 to SYD left at 18:15.

In the past NZ has tagged teamed some domestic aircraft across the Tasman. Example some of the domestic a320s would meet up in BNE with 77W flight and follow it across.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1821
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:54 am

NZ6 wrote:
It's pathetic isn't it.

Apart from very small "second wave" (which was quickly contained due to good contact tracing and public gathering limits) we've been COVID free for 7-8 months.

I beg to differ. Our policies so far have kept NZers extraordinarily safe compared with almost all other countries. We’ve barely had a second “wave” where others have had third or even fourth waves of the virus. Yes, it’s been painful for aviation and for airline workers, but that’s been a necessary evil. We will open up in due course and within a few years all will be forgotten.

I look back over several months of posts and see posters who at various times could not understand why NZ couldn’t open up immediately to countries like Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. Based on their current number of active cases, I think it’s self-evident that we took the right course of action. For NZ to be operating start-stop-start services while infection levels fluctuate (and probably importing fresh domestic cases on board) would have been IMO far more damaging to the brand.

As for the Pacific Islands, the lack of domestic testing facilities, coupled with a lack of intensive care beds more than justifies an abundance of caution. The last time there was a serious global pandemic the actions of the NZ government led directly to a catastrophe in Samoa. I don’t think we want to risk that again by being too hasty in our reopening.

Now there’s a vaccine (several, in fact) things will start to change - in a far safer manner than would have been possible just a couple of months ago. Patience, my friend!
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
User avatar
MillwallSean
Posts: 988
Joined: Tue Apr 08, 2008 3:07 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Sun Dec 13, 2020 8:53 am

DavidByrne wrote:

I look back over several months of posts and see posters who at various times could not understand why NZ couldn’t open up immediately to countries like Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. Based on their current number of active cases, I think it’s self-evident that we took the right course of action.


While I do agree with you about New Zealands course of action I am not sure what that differs between our and Taiwans situation.
Both have zero community transmission and constant drip-feeds of returnees with Covid. They, despite more people arriving each day (most from hotspots like the US and Philippines/Indonesia), have just had less issues with quarantine that us.
With that said I don't see a need for a travel-bubble (we have become indoctrinated) with Taiwan. The risk outweighs the benefit for both countries.

I do see a need for a travel-bubble with Australia.
Australia contributes billions to our economy and is by far our largest business-partner. There is also somewhere between 500K to 900K, depending on whose numbers that's considered, New Zealanders living in Australia. Australians also contribute 45-50% of our visitors and about 15% of our total trade (that's not counting the new Zealand incorporated subsidiaries of Australian companies banks, supermarkets etc etc). Opening up to an Australia with case numbers that mirrors ours since October makes a lot of economic and political sense.

Its not unreasonable to state that New Zealand is dragging its feet when it comes to preparing for open borders with Australia.
The reasons provided by the government rings hollow, numbers that designate a hotspot aren't safe (like we cant set our own numbers) for example feels like poorly thought out excuses.
A clear concise road to open borders with Australia is worth a fortune to our economy and judging by Australia's current numbers they are handling this as well as we are (and see New Plymouth - we aren't exactly perfect)
What truly annoys me, is that the government seem happy to have cricketers, fishing crews and farmhands coming to assist New Zealand. The peddling to specific interest (farmers, fishing companies and athletes) does not feel like a team of 5 million or shared sacrifices. So if were not doing it proper anyway, and those with connections can buy people in, why are we then depriving several sectors of their livelihoods (tourism and travel) when rather safe neighbours with whom we share a history are standing by and ready. It makes little sense (especially since we can close the border - just like Aussie states do when a hotspot flares up).
No One Likes Us - We Dont Care.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1805
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:03 am

DavidByrne wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
It's pathetic isn't it.

Apart from very small "second wave" (which was quickly contained due to good contact tracing and public gathering limits) we've been COVID free for 7-8 months.

I beg to differ. Our policies so far have kept NZers extraordinarily safe compared with almost all other countries. We’ve barely had a second “wave” where others have had third or even fourth waves of the virus. Yes, it’s been painful for aviation and for airline workers, but that’s been a necessary evil. We will open up in due course and within a few years all will be forgotten.

I look back over several months of posts and see posters who at various times could not understand why NZ couldn’t open up immediately to countries like Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. Based on their current number of active cases, I think it’s self-evident that we took the right course of action. For NZ to be operating start-stop-start services while infection levels fluctuate (and probably importing fresh domestic cases on board) would have been IMO far more damaging to the brand.

As for the Pacific Islands, the lack of domestic testing facilities, coupled with a lack of intensive care beds more than justifies an abundance of caution. The last time there was a serious global pandemic the actions of the NZ government led directly to a catastrophe in Samoa. I don’t think we want to risk that again by being too hasty in our reopening.

Now there’s a vaccine (several, in fact) things will start to change - in a far safer manner than would have been possible just a couple of months ago. Patience, my friend!


Raro has never had it and we've been COVID free for half the year. The best we can do is Q1 in 2021?!? Sorry, but I do fail to see or accept any risk.

We're not talking Japan or South Korea

If this is all we can do almost a year on.. then any Australian bubble is almost untenable isn't it?

There is a debate to be had on if we could have kept it out with flights to the likes of QLD, RAR, APW etc and if out zero tolerance approach has been too extreme but I'm trying to not go there yet.
 
torin
Posts: 62
Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2005 7:53 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Sun Dec 13, 2020 10:14 am

zkncj wrote:
PA515 wrote:
SXI899 wrote:
MCC heads off to France tomorrow.

ZK-MCC departed AKL for BNE at 1754 as SXI2063. Unusual departure time for a ferry flight.

https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/ZKMCC

PA515


Lack of HR radio? NZ113 to SYD left at 18:15.

In the past NZ has tagged teamed some domestic aircraft across the Tasman. Example some of the domestic a320s would meet up in BNE with 77W flight and follow it across.


It had the stingray HR radio antenna bolted on.
 
NZ321
Posts: 1383
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Sun Dec 13, 2020 4:20 pm

I think Australia will have opened travel bubbles with a range of countries - e.g. Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Vietnam - long before NZ opens its door to the majority of Australia or those countries - but who knows for sure what this means for the airlines and for Australia, once these bubbles commence? I agree the NZ situation seems a bit restrictive and the response level is very slow in NZ when one looks at how long things have taken with the Cook Islands! But we also know that things can change quickly with Covid. Just look at the situation in Malaysia, now. Things were nicely back under control in the middle of the year - not far from what NZ was experiencing at the time - until the Sabah elections in late September and now we have 2000 new cases a day and the projection is for this to rise to 5000 a day by March and yet we have been in a partial lock-down since early October. Similar quarantine on entry rules here as in NZ. These numbers are scary - Malaysia has 35 m people and NZ 5m, but the trajectory of infection here is gaining pace well outside anything NZ has experienced despite everything that is in place and a respected medical system. NZ needs to avoid this sort of situation if at all possible not least because its medical infrastructure couldn't cope. IMHO we need to anticipate that things will continue to be slow in NZ in terms of opening to international travel.
Plane mad!
 
NZ6
Posts: 1805
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:57 pm

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mik ... BGSSO62RA/

I was wondering about this late last night.

I still think he's 40/60 to get off the ground. But if he does.. I give it 6-12 months max.

He will find a customer base. Just like Ewan Wilson did with Kiwi International in 1994(ish). But..

- It won't take a lot to for NZ to add WLG/CHC-RAR into their schedule if the demand is consistent and strong.
- NZ has the ability to load 787's AKL-RAR offering more seats at affordable prices.
- There's a shed lot of credits out there.
- Consumer confidence. How many people will be willing to spend money on a startup airline during the COVID era knowing it's their one chance at a holiday and should anything go wrong they won't see a cent back.
- Cook Island capacity. I've said this before, the Cook Islands is one of the few places where "extra flights" have the demand but the lack of accommodation means people who want to book can't. This has a sub question which is what will accommodation pricing look like? Will this be inflated forcing those looking for a cheap getaway to wait? Likely the same customer base Mr Pero is looking to target.

What happens when VA want their plane back?
 
NZ6
Posts: 1805
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Sun Dec 13, 2020 8:55 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
As for the Pacific Islands, the lack of domestic testing facilities, coupled with a lack of intensive care beds more than justifies an abundance of caution. The last time there was a serious global pandemic the actions of the NZ government led directly to a catastrophe in Samoa. I don’t think we want to risk that again by being too hasty in our reopening.


I forgot to mention yesterday, this "issue" has been raised before but fails to address why seasonal workers in our horticultural industry can't come here? (even though sports teams can)

But besides that, what's going to change between now and Q1 in the Cook Islands? Genuine question, while I'm sure testing kits can be sent over and contact tracing can be rolled out. Will they have more intensive care beds, more nurses and Drs in 3 months? - What exactly are we waiting on?

Of course very little is ever explained and questions normally get the arms length reply "when it is safe to do so".

I've said a few times. I agree with locking out 99% of the world.

But tourism sector is down $1B per month. I just think more questions need to be asked about what can be done safely. While our current approach has been working. What if I'd said 50,000 Queenslanders could have travelled here each month? While it's only drop in a large bucket to what we normally get. It's 50,000 extra people staying, spending and doing in our economy all coming from a state which holds a very similar position to NZ and hasn't had community transmission for some considerable time.
 
zkncj
Posts: 4167
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:21 pm

https://i.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300182859/mike-peros-new-airline-pasifika-air-expects-to-launch-rarotonga-flights-in-june

Mike Pero’s latest airline attempt has been renamed as Pasifika Air.

To start WLG/CHC-RAR services from June 2021, with two ex VA 738s. The company has applied for an AOC this month, to allow its operation.

See how long it takes NZ to start WLG/CHC-RAR services once the Cook Islands are re-opened.
 
mrkerr7474
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed Dec 23, 2009 7:55 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Mon Dec 14, 2020 2:00 am

https://i.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/30018 ... r-confirms

Some good news that a travel bubble between NZ and Australia will look to be open within the first quarter of 2021, with dates to be confirmed in the new year

Fingers crossed the current situation can be maintained so there are no setbacks in opening up this travel bubble.

It will be good for all once it eventuates
 
zkncj
Posts: 4167
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Mon Dec 14, 2020 2:08 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
https://i.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300183286/travel-bubble-with-australia-coming-in-early-2021-prime-minister-confirms

Some good news that a travel bubble between NZ and Australia will look to be open within the first quarter of 2021, with dates to be confirmed in the new year

Fingers crossed the current situation can be maintained so there are no setbacks in opening up this travel bubble.

It will be good for all once it eventuates


Although it seems like very little progress has been made, that fact the Auckland Airport inspection is only happening tomorrow. Months ago we were already told this was going to happen, yet we have waited until it is to late.
 
jrfspa320
Posts: 684
Joined: Fri Sep 16, 2005 12:18 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Mon Dec 14, 2020 2:22 am

zkncj wrote:
mrkerr7474 wrote:
https://i.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300183286/travel-bubble-with-australia-coming-in-early-2021-prime-minister-confirms

Some good news that a travel bubble between NZ and Australia will look to be open within the first quarter of 2021, with dates to be confirmed in the new year

Fingers crossed the current situation can be maintained so there are no setbacks in opening up this travel bubble.

It will be good for all once it eventuates


Although it seems like very little progress has been made, that fact the Auckland Airport inspection is only happening tomorrow. Months ago we were already told this was going to happen, yet we have waited until it is to late.


Would the simplest option not be to set a temporary set up with customs in the domestic terminals for AU arrivals?
 
NZ6
Posts: 1805
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Mon Dec 14, 2020 2:42 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
https://i.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300183286/travel-bubble-with-australia-coming-in-early-2021-prime-minister-confirms

Some good news that a travel bubble between NZ and Australia will look to be open within the first quarter of 2021, with dates to be confirmed in the new year

Fingers crossed the current situation can be maintained so there are no setbacks in opening up this travel bubble.

It will be good for all once it eventuates


I find it very interesting that they announced the Cook Islands on Friday and today, less than one business day later they come out and announce Australia will follow but provide us with the same window of Q1.

Why wouldn't you announce both at the same time? There's clearly something in that.

I'm not entirely sure why we need the Cook Islands first, my initial assumption was "it's a test run" for the process, which it may well be. But there's is zero risk in COVID coming into NZ from the Cooks and half a point more for NZ taking it there.

There's actually more risk in us importing it from Australia, so if anything. Wouldn't we want to prove that before exploring the vulnerable Pacific?

I'm also skeptical on if it'll be on the basis you've had a vaccine which will start to reach our shores towards the end of this timeframe.

Fingers crossed for something soon.
 
zkncj
Posts: 4167
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:23 am

jrfspa320 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
mrkerr7474 wrote:
https://i.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300183286/travel-bubble-with-australia-coming-in-early-2021-prime-minister-confirms

Some good news that a travel bubble between NZ and Australia will look to be open within the first quarter of 2021, with dates to be confirmed in the new year

Fingers crossed the current situation can be maintained so there are no setbacks in opening up this travel bubble.

It will be good for all once it eventuates


Although it seems like very little progress has been made, that fact the Auckland Airport inspection is only happening tomorrow. Months ago we were already told this was going to happen, yet we have waited until it is to late.


Would the simplest option not be to set a temporary set up with customs in the domestic terminals for AU arrivals?


Months ago AKL did the work to split the International Terminal into two zones. Pier A (g1-10) safe travel zone, Pier B (15-18) red zone flights.

Transit passengers are restricted to Pier B under this plan, there has also been customs and immigration setup for Pier B to keep these passengers seperate.

AKL is already operating its departures in two zones, this is used for the Isolation Free flights to Australia.
 
jrfspa320
Posts: 684
Joined: Fri Sep 16, 2005 12:18 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:29 am

zkncj wrote:
jrfspa320 wrote:
zkncj wrote:

Although it seems like very little progress has been made, that fact the Auckland Airport inspection is only happening tomorrow. Months ago we were already told this was going to happen, yet we have waited until it is to late.


Would the simplest option not be to set a temporary set up with customs in the domestic terminals for AU arrivals?


Months ago AKL did the work to split the International Terminal into two zones. Pier A (g1-10) safe travel zone, Pier B (15-18) red zone flights.

Transit passengers are restricted to Pier B under this plan, there has also been customs and immigration setup for Pier B to keep these passengers seperate.

AKL is already operating its departures in two zones, this is used for the Isolation Free flights to Australia.


Thanks for the update, obviously the complication for Air NZ will be running transit only flights to AU and O&D bubble flights without any mixing, but presumably this is already happening? I would imagine most USA-AU passengers are using direct flights at the moment anyway
 
zkncj
Posts: 4167
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:50 am

jrfspa320 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
jrfspa320 wrote:

Would the simplest option not be to set a temporary set up with customs in the domestic terminals for AU arrivals?


Months ago AKL did the work to split the International Terminal into two zones. Pier A (g1-10) safe travel zone, Pier B (15-18) red zone flights.

Transit passengers are restricted to Pier B under this plan, there has also been customs and immigration setup for Pier B to keep these passengers seperate.

AKL is already operating its departures in two zones, this is used for the Isolation Free flights to Australia.


Thanks for the update, obviously the complication for Air NZ will be running transit only flights to AU and O&D bubble flights without any mixing, but presumably this is already happening? I would imagine most USA-AU passengers are using direct flights at the moment anyway


NZ is already running 'quarantine-free' flights on the Tasman, along with additional flights for transit traffic.
JQ/QF AKL-SYD are only running as'quarantine-free'
https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/covid19 ... nal-travel
One-way safe travel is available outbound from New Zealand to eligible Safe Travel Zones in Australia without the requirement of quarantine on arrival.

In order to continue to carry our passengers safely and identify passengers with travel not originating in New Zealand, we have introduced what's known as 'quarantine-free' flights.

'Quarantine-free' flights - will be for passengers with travel originating in New Zealand who are flying from New Zealand to Australia Safe Travel Zone states and are not required to quarantine on arrival. You do not need to be a New Zealand citizen to travel to Australia 'quarantine-free', but you will need to have a valid visa to enter Australia. If you do not meet the 'quarantine-free' flight criteria then you will need to undertake the required managed-isolation process on arrival set by the Australian Government.
 
Kent350787
Posts: 1856
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:56 am

NZ6 wrote:
Why wouldn't you announce both at the same time? There's clearly something in that.



I expect that the issue may have been discussed in the Australian National Cabinet meeting last Friday, with discussions with NZ over the weekend.

Ms Ardern inidicated that NZ wanted to deal with Australia as a nation, rather than as individual states.
S340/J31/146-300/F27/F50/Nord 262/Q100/200/E195/733/734/738/744/762/763/77W/788/789/320/321/332/333/345/359
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2752
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Mon Dec 14, 2020 4:52 am

Kent350787 wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Why wouldn't you announce both at the same time? There's clearly something in that.



I expect that the issue may have been discussed in the Australian National Cabinet meeting last Friday, with discussions with NZ over the weekend.

Ms Ardern inidicated that NZ wanted to deal with Australia as a nation, rather than as individual states.

Politicians love announcements because that means they get on the news so it makes sense to separate announcements over a couple of days. The only time you make announcements on the same day is if you are trying to hide some bad news under coverage of a "good news" announcement.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
Kent350787
Posts: 1856
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Mon Dec 14, 2020 5:03 am

tullamarine wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Why wouldn't you announce both at the same time? There's clearly something in that.



I expect that the issue may have been discussed in the Australian National Cabinet meeting last Friday, with discussions with NZ over the weekend.

Ms Ardern inidicated that NZ wanted to deal with Australia as a nation, rather than as individual states.

Politicians love announcements because that means they get on the news so it makes sense to separate announcements over a couple of days. The only time you make announcements on the same day is if you are trying to hide some bad news under coverage of a "good news" announcement.


The Cook Islands announcement would have had real value for that bilateral relationship. ANnouncing that they were doing that but not Australia in the lead-up to the Oz national Cabinet was a making a good point, and probably gave Mr Morrison some extra impetus to push the states to an agreed national position.
S340/J31/146-300/F27/F50/Nord 262/Q100/200/E195/733/734/738/744/762/763/77W/788/789/320/321/332/333/345/359
 
NZ6
Posts: 1805
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Mon Dec 14, 2020 6:40 am

Kent350787 wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Why wouldn't you announce both at the same time? There's clearly something in that.



I expect that the issue may have been discussed in the Australian National Cabinet meeting last Friday, with discussions with NZ over the weekend.

Ms Ardern inidicated that NZ wanted to deal with Australia as a nation, rather than as individual states.


What we do is independent to what Australia do, we can already travel to many Australian stats quarantine free.

As for needing lead time for airlines. Please!
 
aerokiwi
Posts: 2817
Joined: Sun Jul 30, 2000 1:17 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Mon Dec 14, 2020 6:43 am

Kent350787 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:


I expect that the issue may have been discussed in the Australian National Cabinet meeting last Friday, with discussions with NZ over the weekend.

Ms Ardern inidicated that NZ wanted to deal with Australia as a nation, rather than as individual states.

Politicians love announcements because that means they get on the news so it makes sense to separate announcements over a couple of days. The only time you make announcements on the same day is if you are trying to hide some bad news under coverage of a "good news" announcement.


The Cook Islands announcement would have had real value for that bilateral relationship. ANnouncing that they were doing that but not Australia in the lead-up to the Oz national Cabinet was a making a good point, and probably gave Mr Morrison some extra impetus to push the states to an agreed national position.


Ah bless. Such innocence and assumption of competence. Word is that business leaders cracked it over the weekend at the Cooks news and were ready to start criticising publicly, which they've refrained from doing to a great extent.

1Q 21 is also exceptionally vague. That's a 90 day window of arbitrary timeframes that appear wholly reliant on the NZ Govt pulling finger and actually doing what it said was going to be done months and months ago. Australian states seem to be able to give two weeks notice, or less. I guess the difference is competent leadership.
 
zkncj
Posts: 4167
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - Christmas 2020

Mon Dec 14, 2020 8:19 am

NZ6 wrote:
As for needing lead time for airlines. Please!


Yeah I don’t get that one, NZ is already running daily if not double daily flights to SYD,BNE,MEL while not all of them current carry passengers it wouldn’t take long to turn them back into passenger services.

Apart from broken 789s most of NZ’s 787 fleet is still in service and ready to go. They would need to bring some cabin crew back online, but fresher training would take months.

I would say at weeks notice, NZ could have something like this operational.
AKL-SYD: 2x Daily 789
AKL-BNE: 1x Daily 789, 1x Daily a320NEO
AKL-MEL: 1x Daily 789, 1x Daily a320NEO
AKL-OOL: 1x Daily a321NEO

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos